129 ,l 309 0EPART[4ENT OF IJO('SIIIG AND UREAN I)LVELOPI!!ENT LIBRARY 'Bl,h*"*,,r*' wAsHINGTON, D,c. 2c4lo tl bb JUL I 81967

t I W"lfi"e BRUNSWICK, GEORGIA HOUSING MARKET

as of October 1, 1966

A Report by the DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVETOPMENT FEDERAT HOUSING ADM!NISTRATION WASH|NGTON, D. C.20111

July 1967 ANALYSIS OF THE

BRUNS CK GEORGIA HOUSING MARKET

AS OF OCTOBER 1 1966

Field Market Analysis Service FederaI Housing AdminisEration Department of Housing and Urban Development Foreword

Ae a publlc servlce t.o a66ist local houslng activities t.hrough clearer underetanding of locaI housing roarkeE condlEions, FHA lnltiaEed publlcatlon of lEs comprehenslve housing market analyses early ln 1965. Whtle each report ls deslgned specificatly for FllA use ln admlnlsterlng ltB mortgage lnsurance operatlon6, 1t. 1s expecEed that the factual informatlon and the findings and concluslons of Ehese reports wll1 be generally useful also to builders, nortgagees, and others concerned wlEh local housing probleme and to oEhers having an interest ln local economic con- dttlons and trends. Slnce Elrket, analyois is not an exacE sclence, the judgmental factor ts lmporfant ln the developnent of findlngs and conclusions There wlll be dlfferencee of oplnlon, of course, in the lnter- pretatlon of avallabl.e factual lnformatlon in determining the absorpElve capaclEy of the market and the requirements for main- tenance of a reaeonable balance ln demand-supply relatlonships. The factual'framework for each analysis is developed as thoroughly as posstble on the basls of lnformatlon avallable from both local and natlonal lources. UnIees epeclflcally iCentifled by source reference, alI estlmatee and Judgments ln the analysls are Ehose of the authortng analyst and the FllA Market Analysts and Research Sec t lon . TabIe of Contents

Page Summary and Concluslons i

Housing Market Area 1

Map of Area 2

Economy of the Area

Character and History 3 Employment 3 Principal Employment Sources 4 UnemploymenE 5 Future EmploymenE 5 Income 5 Demographic Factors

Population 7 Househo lds 8 Housing Market Factors

Housing Supp1y lo Residential Building Activity I1 Tenure of Occupancy 13 Vacancy 13 Sales Market t4 Rental Market 15 Urban Renewal 16 Public Housing 16 Military Housing 16

Demand for Housing

Quantitative Demand L7 Qualitative Demand 18 ANALYSIS OF THE BRUNSWICK, GEORGIA, HOUSING MARKET AS 0F OCT0BER 1, tg66

Summar and Concl s1 s

I current nonagricultural employment in the Brunswick Housing MarkeE Area (HMA) is estimated at 17 r3OO. There has been tittle employ- ment growth in the past eighteen months; however, the growth from 1960 through t964 averaged about 575 a year. Most of rhe gain in employment since t96O has been in paper, chemicals, and trade, while employment in food products has been declining. During the 0ctober 1966-October 1969 forecast period, employnent in the HMA is expected to expand at an average rate of 4OO annually.

2 As of 0ctober 1, 1966, the population of the Brunswick HMA numbers about 50,600 persons; yearly population gains have averaged 1r325 in the post-196O period. Between l95O and 1960, population gains averaged lr3OO annually. Currently, about 45 percent of the popu- lation resides in the city of Brunswick. since 1960, most of the population growth has occurred in the unincorporated areas of the HMA. During the three-year forecast period, the population is ex- pected to increase by about lr3OO persons annually, reaching a Eoral of 54,5OO by 0crober L969.

3 At the present time, there are about 14rl75 households in the Brunswick HMA, indicat.ing average annual increments of 39O since Aprit I960. By 0ctober 1969, households are expected to total I51325, representing an addiEion of about 38O annually during the three-year forecast period.

4 There are currently about 151825 housing units in the Brunswick HMA, representing a net addition to the inventory of about 4tO units annually since 1960. During the 195O-196O intercensal period, the inventory increased by an average of 395 units annu- aIly. Since 1950, about 87 percent of the units authorized by building permits have been for single-family houses; this rough- ly corresponds to the current inventory composition. In the post-1960 period, abouE three-fourths of the authorized units have been in the unincorporated portion of the tMA.

5 There are approximately 9oo vacant, nondilapidated, nonseasonal housing units available for sale or rent in the HMA as of Octo- ber 1, L966. 0f the toEal, 225 are for sale, for a homeowner vacancy rate of 2.6 percent, and 675 are for rent, for a rental vacancy rate of IO.5 percent. Both the current homeowner and 11

rental vacancy rates are about the same as rates reported in 1960, and are above the levels that would represent. balanced demand-supply relationships in the sales and rental markets. However, a substan- tial portion of the vacant units, although they are not dilapidated and have all plumbing facilities, are of a quality or are in loca- tions that make them marginal in competition with better quality existing units or with new units at comparable or somewhat higher prices or rents.

6 The number of additional housing units needed to meet the require- ments of anticipated increases in the number of households and re- sult in a more acceptable demand-supply reLationship in the market is estimated to be 3OO units annually, including 26O units of sales- type housing and 4O units of rental housing, excluding public low- rent housing and rent-supplement accommodations. An additional 5O rental units might be marketed each year at the lower rents possible wiEh below-market-interest-rate financing or assistance in land pur- chase and cost. Demand for sales units is expected to approximate the distribution by sales price indicated on page 18. ANALYSIS OF ]}IE BRUNSWICK GEORGIA HOUSING MARKET AS OF OCTOBER 1 L966

Housing Market Area The Brunswick, Georgia, Housing Market Area (HMA) is defined to include Glynn County, which had a population of about 4I,950 in 7960.7/ About one-hatf of the population was located in the city of Brunswick and the remainder resided in the urban fringe around the city and on the off-shore islands. Brunswick is Ehe only incorporated area in the county.

Brunswick is located on the coast of Georgia, about midway between Savannah, Georgia and Jacksonville, Florida. Savannah is about 75 miles to the north and Jacksonville is about 75 miles south of Brunswick. Atlanta, Georgia lies about 275 mlles northwest of Brunswick.

The Brunswick HI"IA has an adequate transportation neEwork. The highway system of the HMA includes four U.S. highways and numerous state roads. Interstate 95, when completed, also will serve the area. Rail service is provided by two raiLroads (the SouEhern and the Atlantic Coast Line). One major airline (Delta) and one local airline (Golden Isles) provide ample alr transportation. In addiEion, the Georgia Ports Authority operates a general cargo facility in Brunswick and the Brunswick Port Authority operates a bulk cargo facility adjacenE Eo the general cargo faciLtty. Major expansion programs have been completed recently in each of these facilities.

Brunswick Junior College, operated by the Universlty System of Georgia, has been compleEed recently in the H],IA. There are currently abouE 5OO studenEs enrolled aE the college, of which about 35O are full-time students.

Ll Inasmuch as the rural farm population of the Brunswick HMA constituted only one-half of one percent of the total population in 1960, atl demographic and housing daEa used ln this analysis refer to the total of rural fann and nonfarm data. - 2-

BRUNSWICK, GEORGIA, HOUSING MARKET AREA

TO ATLANTA

TO SAVANNAH , I I A t, a- +/, , ,s ,2 v' 25 I a ,? t ta I \\ s\ I a (!\ q LI NE 5T , t0 / ot-vt't ST. SIMONS ru.ri.s-. AN( / I SLAND A TL (,.t\

TO (.{ I VAL DOS TA SEA $ I SLAND I BRUNSWI \ I 6l qJ,\ b *h,"-or*r, o , I JEKYLL o , .L I SLAND TO JACKSONVI LLE, s FLA. (V I u

N GEORGI A + GLYNN COU NTY

o 5 IO MI LES 3

Economy of the Area

Character and HistoEI The history of the Brunswick area dates back to the mid-18th century, with the building of defense fortifications on the offshore islands. The city of Brunswick was incorporated in Ll7L, and soon became an important trading center for southeastern Georgia. In the Iate 1880's, tourism became an important aspect of the local economy, and still remains one of the prime economic activities. The city has a protecEed deep-water port which has stimulated economic growth in the area. The present economy of the Brunswick HMA is fairly well diversified. Principal manufacturing activities include chemicals, paints, paper, and food products. Nonmanufacturing is dominated by trade. The Glynco Naval Air Station, located north of the city, also has provlded some measure of economic support.

Emp I oymen t

Current Estimate and Past Trend. The Brunswick HMA is not one of the Iabor market areas for which the Georgia Department of Labor provides current estimates of the work force, total employment, and unemployment. Based on the nonagricultural employment reported in the 1960 Census, and available data on recent trends in employment covered by the Georgia Employment Security Law, current nonagricultural employmenE is estimated to total 17r3OO, reflecting an average increase of abouE 42O annual[y since 1960. However, there has been liLtLe, if any, economic growth in the past 18 months; growth over the 1960-1964 period probably aver- aged about 575 annually.

Employment trend data are available only for employmenE covered by the Georgia Employment Security Law. For the flrst three months of 1966, covered employment in the Brunswick HMA averaged 11r 15O, a decline of 15O from the comparable months of 1965 (see table I). In addition, an employment loss of 775 was experienced between 1964 and 1965. Prior to 1965, covered employment had been expanding at a fairly rapid rate, increasing from 9r35O in 1959 Eo 11,625 in 1964. During the 1959-1962 period, employment gains ranged between 25O and 3OO annually. The 1963 average employment level was 9OO above the 1962 level; an employment increase of 525 \^ras recorded in the 1963- 1964 period.

The Erend of covered employment in manufacturing in the Brunswick HMA has been uneven. Gains have never been recorded for more than two consecutive years. The only significant increase in manufacturing employment occurred between L962 and 1963 when about 375 jobs were added. Erom a 1959 level of 4,725, manufacturing employment increased to 4,925 in 1961, fell by 5O in L962, and increased to 5,250 in 1963. 4

The 1964 average was onLy 5O above that of the previous year and represents the peak of the 1959-1965 period. In L965, a decline of 75 jobs was recorded and, for the first three months of L966, the average LeveI of manufacturing employment was 100 below the comparable perioC of 1965. Over the 1959-1965 period, the paper and the chemicals industries provided most of the manufacturing growth, adding 3OO and 325 jobs, respectively. Ttre paper industry was the most stable, recording gains in each of the six years. The chemicals category, on the other hanC, added 325 jobs between 1960 and 1961 with off- setting gains and losses in the following years. Althcugh the 1965 employment level in the machinery industry was 125 above the 1959 LeveI, gains were registered in only trrTo years (L962 and 1963) with losses experienced in the other four years. A declining employm,ent level in the food products industry has been a major inhibitor of sustained growth in covered empLoyment in manufacturing. Between 1959 and L965, employment in the food products indusEry declined by 25O, with losses occurring in four of the six years. In nonmanufacturing activities, t,575 covered jobs were added between 1959 and L965. However, the 1965 employment level was 1O0 below the 1964 level and, for the first three months of L966, a further loss of 2OO jobs was experienced. During the 1959-1964 period, employment gains in nonmanufacturing were recorded annually, ranging from a low of 125 between 1960 and 1961 to a high of 5OO recorded between 1962 aad L963. As might be expected, the largest gain in nonmanufacturing was registered by the trade category, which added 8OO jobs between 1959 and 1965 and accounted for over half of the total increase in no;rmanufac- turing. Most of the growth, however, occurred during the earlier portion of rhe period. The largest gain (325 jobs) was registered between 1959 and 1960; this was followed by a loss of 225 in 1961. Gains of 275 and 25O were recorded in the subsequent two years. Since 1963, increases have been slight; onty 125 jobs were added between 1963 and L964 and only 50 jobs were added in the 1964-1965 period. Covered employment in trade during the first quarter of L966 was only 25 jobs abcve the level of the comparable period in 1965. Construction employment increased by 225 between 1959 and 1965, despite a Loss of 3OO jobs in 1965. Furtherm,rre, employment during the first quarter of L966 was 125 below the first quarter of 1965. The remaining nonmanufacturing categories registered modest gains over the L959-1965 period.

Principal Emp loyment Sources Manufacturers. There is no one industry or firm which dominates the Brunswick economy. There are numerous manufacturers producing a variety of products. Four of the larger firms are Allied Chemical Corporation, Hercules Powder company, Dixie Paint and Varnish company, and the Brunswick Pulp and Paper Company. There are, in addition, numerous food processing pLants in the area. 5

Glvnco NavaI Air Station The Glynco Naval Air Station is located six miles north of the city of Brunswick. The currently staEed mission is to maintain and operate facilities and provide services and maE.eriaI to support operations of aviation activity of the U.S. Naval Alr Technical Training Command.

the latest available strength figures of Glynco NAS indicate a total complement of 2,632 as of June L956, composed of 2,425 rr.Llltary person- nel and 2O7 civilians. The total strength at Glynco NAS has been quite stable since 1962; litEle change is anticipated during the three-year forecast period. The following table indicates the trend In strength figures reported for Glynco NAS over the past five years.

Militarv and CiviLian Strength Glynco Naval Air Station December 1962 - June 1966

Mi 1i tary Civi I ian Total

December 1962 2,4L9 t74 2,593 r' 19 63 2 16gl 168 2,5L3 tt 1964 2,582 t67 2,749 " 1965 2,448 L67 2,6L5 June 1966 2,425 207 2,632

Source: Department of Defense.

Unemp loyment

Georgia Department of Labor data indicate that unemployment in the Brunswick HMA in October 1955 was equal to 3.4 percent of the work force These are the only available data. However, it is estimated that the leve1 of unemployment has been unchanged since that time.

Iqlulq Employment During the October 1, 1966-October 1, 1969 forecast period, iE is antlcipated that employment in the Brunswlck HMA will regain an upward t.rend and increase by an average of 4OO jobs annually. Total non- agricultural employmenE is expected to reach 18,5O0 by October L969, Although the projected rate of expansion is 3O percent below the 1959- 1964 average rate of increase, it represents a reversal of the dournward trend which began in 1965. 6

It 1s expected that most manufacturing industries wiIl experience mod- est increases, except the food processing and lumber industries which are expected to maintain their current employment levels. Among the nonmanufacturing categories, most of the increase will be in the trade sector as a result of continued population growth. Smaller gains are expected in the other nonmanufacturing industries. The construction industry, which has been declining since L965, is expected to main- tain its current employment level.

Income

The current median family incomes, after deducting federal income tax, are about $6,35O annually for aIl families and $5r4OO annually for renter householdsl/. About l8 percent of all families have after- tax incomes of less than $3rOOO, compared with about 24 percent of renter households. At the upper end of the income distribution, about 19 percent of all families and 11 percent of renter households currently receive after-tax incomes of $lOrOOO or more annually. By 1969, median after-tax incomes are expected to be $6r875 for all fam- jlies and $5r85O for renter households. Detailed distributions of families and households by annual after-tax incomes are presented j.n table 11.

I / ExcLudes one-person renter households. -7-

DemoEraphic Factors

Popu Lat.ion

Hl4A Eotal As of OcEober 1, L966, the population of the Brunswick HI,IA numbers about 50,600 persons, an increase of 8,650 since April 1960. Yearly population gains have averaged 1,325 (2.9 percent) in the post- 1960 period.l/ Between 195O and 1960, the population of the HMA increased by an average of 1,3OO persons (3.7 percent) annualLy, from 29,O5O in 195O to 41,950 in 1960. Although population growth in the 1960-1966 perlod averaged 1,325, gains over the last one and one-half years have not attained this Level. ltre population trend for the Brunswick Hl'lA since 1950, and a projection to 1959, are shown below. TabLe III provides a more detailed presentatlon of popuLation trends.

Population Trend Brunswick, Georgla, Hl.lA April 195O-October 1959

Ayerage annual change Date Popu Latlon Number Percent

April 1950 29,046 April 1960 4L,954 1, 291 3.; October 1966 50, 600 1,325 2.9 October 1969 54,5OO 1,3OO 2.5

Sources: 1950 and 1960 Censuses of Population. 1966 and 1969 estimaEed by Housing Market Analyst.

Brunswick Currently, the populatlon of the city of Brunswick totals about 23,OOO, reflecting average annual gains of 2OO (O.9 percent) since April 1960. The growEh rate of the current period is only one- half the growth rate during the 1950-196O period and reflects the increased suburbanization in the Brunswick HI'IA. Between April 1950 and April 1960, the population of Brunswick lncreased from 17,95O to 2L,7OO, reflecting average increases of 375 (1.9 percent) annually.

]/ A11 average annual percentage increases, as used in this analysls, are derived through the use of a formula deslgned t.o calculate the rate of change on a compound basis. 8

Remainder of HMA. The popuLaEion of the remainder of the HMA currently numbers abouE 27 1600, equal to 55 Percent of the total HMA population. The relatively rapid growth of the unincorporated erea is demonstrated by the fact that in 195O it accounted for only 38 Percent. of the HMA population, compared with 55 percent at Present. The current popula- tion total indicates yearly gains of 1,125 (4.8 percent) since Aprii f960. During the l95O-1960 intercensal period, the populaEion of the unincorporated area increased by an average of.92O persons (6.1 per- cenr) annually, from llrlOO in April 1950 to 20,25O in April t960. Net Natural lncrea se and Migration. Between [950 and 196O, net natural increase (excess of resi dent birEhs over residenE deaths) averaged about 71O annualIy, while the total population increased by an average of lr3OO annually, indicating a yearly net in-migration of 590 persons. During the l96O-1966 period, the average annual population increase of 11325 was composed of an average yearly net natural increase of 875 and an average net in-migration of 45O annually.

Future Population. On the basis of expected increases in employment in Ehe Brunswick HMA, the population is expected to increase by about 1,3OO persons (2.5 percent) annuaIly during the three-year forecasE period, reaching a total of.54,5OO by October 1969. The projected rate of increase is slightly below the 1950- 1955 average, but is somewhat above the growth which has occurred since L964. As has been the case in the past, mosE of the population growth is expected to occur in the unincorporated area of the HMA.

Househo lds

HMA Total. AE Ehe present time, there are about 14,L75 households in the Brunswick HMA, reflecting average annuaL increments of 39O (3.O percent) since April 1960. This increase compares with average annual gains of 37O (3.9 percent) during the 1950-196O intercensal period. However, the increase in the number of households between 195O and 1960 reflecEs, in part, the change in census concept fromrtdwelling unitrrin the 195O Census torrhousing unitrr in the 1960 Census. House- hold trends, including a L969 projection, are shown in the following table. TabIe III provides a more detailed distribution of household trends. 9

Household Trend Erunswick, Georgia, HMA Apri I 195O-October 1969

Average annual change Date Househo lds Number Percent

April 1950 7,938 Apri I 1960 Lt,66-7 373 3 9 October 1966 14,L75 390 3 o October 1969 L5,325 380 2 7

Sources: 195C and 1960 Censuses of Housing. 1966 and 1969 estimated by Housing Market AnaIyst.

Brunswick. There are currenEly about 6,675 households in the city of Brunswick, compared with 6,3OO in ApriI 1960. This indicates average gains of 6O households annually since April 1960. The average gain in the current period is less than half of the average annual increments during Ehe 195O's, when over 13O households were added annually, pointing up the increasing trend towards suburbanization.

Remainder of HI4A. As of October I , L966, there are about 7,5O0 house- holds in the unincorporaEed area of the HMA, equal to 53 percent of the HI"IA total. The current toLal suggests an average gain of 33O (5.1 percent) households annually in the'unincorporaEed area since Aprit 1960. During the 195O-1960 intercensal perlod, an average of 24O (5.9 percent) households were added yearLy.

Household Size Trends. The current aver age household size in the Bruns- wick tMA is about 3.46 persons, and represents only a slight decline from Ehe 1960 average size. Between 1950 and 1960, average household size declined from 3.58 persons to 3.47 persons. rn the city of Bruns- wick, the average size is 3.4O persons while in the unincorporated area, it is 3.52 persons.

Future Households. Based on the expected future population of the HMA, it is expected that the number of households will total 151325 by Octo- ber 1969. The projected leve1 suggests average increases of 38O house- holds annually during the next three years. About 65 households a year will accrue to Ehe cit.y of Brunswick, raising the Eotat number of house- holds Eo 6,875 by the end of the forecast period. Households in the remainder of the HMA will total 8,45o by October 1969, reflecting aver- age annual increases of 315 over the current level. IO

Housing Market Factors

Housing Supplv

Current Estimate and Past Trend. There are currently abouL 15r825 housing units in the Brunswick HMA (see table fV). This represents a net addition to the inventory of about 21675 units, an average of 4lO annually, since April 1960. Between l95O and 1960, the number of housing units increased from 9r2OO to 13rl5O, an average gain of 395 units annually. The increase in the housing supply between I95O and l960 reflects, in part, the change in census definiLion from "dwelIing unitrrin the l95O Census to "housing unitl in Lhe 1960 Census.

In the city of Brunswick, there are 7,175 housing units at the present time, compared with 5,J25 in 1960. This represents an average gain of -7O units annually since 1960; during the 195Ors, an average of 120 units were added annually in the city. The remainder of the HMA currently contains about 8r650 housing units, representing an average annual increase of 34O units since 1960. During the 1950-196O period, increments to the housing supply in the remainder of the HMA averaged only 275 annually, and the housing stock increased from 3,675 in 1950 to 5,425 in 1960. Characteristics of the SuPPlY. At present, 86.3 percent of the housing units are in one-unit structures (including trailers), slig ;hr ly higher than the 85.5 percent reported by the 196O Census. Units in structures with two to four units currently account for 8.8 percent, compared with 9.4 percent in Lg6O. The percentage of units in structures with five or more units was virtually unchanged between 1960 and L966, accounting for 5.1 percent in 1960 and 4.9 percent in 1966.

Hous ing lnventory by Units in S truc tu re Brunswick, Georg ia, HI,IA Apri I 1960 and October 1966

Number of units Units in Apri I O:tober Percent of totaL s truc ture 19 60 1966 19 60 1966

One LL,253 13, 650 85 .5 86. 3 Two to four L,229 1, 4oo 9.4 8.8 Eive or more 676 175 5.1 4.9 Total 13, 158 15, 825 100. o 100. o

Sources: 19 60 Census of Housing. 7966 estimated by Housing Market Analyst I1 A distrlbuElon of the housing supply by year built, adjusted to reflect the age of units demoLished since 1960, is presented in the following table. About 19 percent of the inventory has been built since 1960. ApproximateLy 29 percent of the unlts were built during the r95o,s and 21 percent between 1940 and L949.

Distribution of the Houslne Supply by Year Bui I t9l Brunswick , Georqia. Housing Market Area October 1 L966

Number Percentage Year built of units di s tribu tion

April 1960-September 1966 3, OOO 19" o 1950-March 1960 4,55O 28" 8 L940- L949 3,375 2L. 3 1930- 1939 r,525 9" 6 L929 or earlier 3Js 2L.3 Total 15, 825 100. o al the basic data reflect an unknornrn degree of error in ryear built" occasioned by the accuracy of response Eo census enumeratorsl quesEions as well as errors caused by sampling.

Source: EstimaEed by Housing Market Analyst based on the 1960 census of Houslng.

The housing stock of the HIIA is in generally poor condition, although iE has improved since 1950. rn April 1960, almost 25 percent of the housing lnventory was classified as either dilapidated or lacking one or more plumbing facilities. At the present time, about 20 percent of the inventory, or 311oo uniEs, is either dilapidated or lacking one or more plumbing facilities. The condition of the inventory has improved since 1960 because some of the poorer quality and dilapidated units have been demolished and some existing units have been upgraded in quaLity.

Re s identia I Buildins Activitv

New privaEely-financed residential construction activity, as measured by the number of building permits issued, is presented in table v for the 1960-1965 period. Building permirs are issued for all of the HMA. As shornrn in the table, the trend of construction activity has been uneven. From a level of 35O units in 1960, the number of authorized units declined to 31o in 1951, the lowesE annual total of the six-year t2 period. The trend of consEruction activity increased during the next E\^ro years; about 440 units were authorized in 1962 and 670 in 1963, an alI-time high. Since t963, the trend has been dovrnward, falling to 54O units in 1964 and 375 units in 1965. Furthermore, for the firsE eight months of L966, only 12O units were authorized, Less than half Ehe number auEhorized during the comparable period in 1965.

The trend of single-family authorizations during the 1960-1965 period was upward until 11964 when the volume began to decline sharply. From a 1960 level of 29O single-family units, the number of authorizations increased annualiy to a peak of 615 in 1963. Since that time, the trend has been downward, falling to 41O in L964 anid 290 in 1965. Based on data for the first eight months of L966, it appears that the number of single-family units authorized this year will be substanEially below the 1965 leveI.

Since Lg6O, multifamily units authorized by building permits have accounEed for only 13 percent of total authorizations and the trend of these aothorlzations has been quite erratic. A total of 60 multi- family units were authorized in 1960; in 1962, Iess than 10 units were authorized. The number of multifamily units authorized increased sharply during the next two years to a peak of 135 in 1964. The level remained relativefy high (85 units) in 1965 but has decLined to only 1O units thus far in L966. OnIy about one-fourth of the units authorized by building permit.s since 1960 have been within the city limits of Brunswick. Single-family authorizations averaged 75 units annually between 1960 and 1965, and ranged from a low of 5O units in 196O and in 1961 to a high of 1OO uniis in 1963. Multifamily authorizations in Brunswick, on the other hand, declined sharply during the 196o-1962 period, from a high of 60 units in 196O to only two units in 1962. In the past three years (1963, Lg64, and 1965) the number of multifamily units authorized has ranged between 4O and 55 units annually. For the first eight months of L966, however, only two multifamity units have been authorized. In the remainder of the HI,IA, virtuatly alt of the new construction prior to 1964 was single-family. The number of single-family units authorized increased irom 24O units in 196O to 51O units in 1963 and subsequently declined to 2lo units in 1965. Only in 1964 was there a significant number of multifamily units authorized; almost 1OO multifamily units were authorized. In 1965, the number fell to only 30 units. Units Under Construction On the basis of a postal vacancy survey and on building permit data, it is judged that there are approximately 155 units under construction in the HI4A at the presenE time. Of these uni ts, 13 about 60 are single-family structures and 95 are multifamily units, including 84 uniEs of public housing.

Demo I i tions Housing unit losses in the HMA as a result of demolition activity have Eotaled about 3OO since April 1960, an average of 45 units annually. Most of these demoliEions have resulted from urban renewaI activity, code enforcement, and clearance for highway rights- of-way. Because of increased urban renewaI activity during the three- year forecast period, the level of demolition activity will more than double, averaging 1OO units annually during the 1966- 1969 period.

Tenure of Occupancy

The proportion of Ehe occupied housing inventory that is owner-occupied has been increasing since 1950. Currently, about 59.3 percent of the 14,175 occupied housing units are owner-occupied, compared with 57.5 percent in 1960 and 53.4 percent in 195O.

Vacanc

196O Census fhe 196O Census of Housing reported that there were 75O nonseasonal, nondilapidated vacant housing uniEs available for sale or rent in the Brunswick HMA. Of the toEal, L75 were available for sa[e, indicating a homeowner vacancy rate of 2.5 percenE. The remaining 575 were available for rent, for a rental vacancy rate of 10.4 percent. About 1O of the sales vacancies and 75 of the rental vacancies lacked one or more plumbing facilities.

PosEaL Vacancy Survey. The results of a postal vacancy survey conducted during September L966 are shown in table VI. The survey covered a total of about 13r975 possible deliveries (excluding trailers), or about 88 percent of the current housing supply. At the time of the survey, about 87O units (6.2 percent) were vacant. 0f this toEal, about 620 were residences, a vacancy raEe of 5.O percent, and 25O were apartments, equal to 17.5 percent of the surveyed apartments. An additional l5O units were reported to be under construction (including 84 units of public Iow-rent housing).

It is important to note thaE the postal vacancy survey data are not en- tirely comparable with those published by the Bureau of the Census be- cause of differences in definition, area delineaEion, and methods of enumeration. The census reports units and vacancies by tenure, where- as the postal vacancy survey reports units and vacancies by type of structure. The Post Office Department defines a I'resj.denceil as a unit represent.ing one stop for one delivery of mail (one mailbox). These are principally single-family homes, but include row houses and some L4 duplexes and structures with additional units creaEed by conversion. An rrapartmenttr is a unit on a stop where more than one delivery of mail is possible. Postal surveys omit vacancies in limited areas served by post office boxes and tend to omit units in subdivisions under construction. Although the postal vacancy survey has obvious Iimitations, when used in conjunction with other vacancy indicators iE serves a valuable function in the derivation of estimates of local market conditions.

Current Estimate. Based on the postal vacancy survey and on informa- tion obtained from local sources, it is judged that there are approxi- mately 9OO vacant, nondilapidated, nonseasonal housing units avallable for sale or rent in the HMA as of 0ctober l, L966. Of the total number of available vacancies, about 225 are available for sale, a homeowner vacancy rate of 2.6 percent, and 675 are for rent, a renLal vacancy rate of lO.5 percent. About IOO of the available vacancies (15 sales and 85 rentals) tack one or more plumbing facilities.

Both the current homeowner and rental vacancy rates are about the same as rates reported in 1960. The homeowner vacancy rate of 2.6 percent is somewhat above the rate desirable to maintain a reasonable demand- supply balance in the sales market. The rental vacancy rate is about twice the desirable level. Included in the current Level of available rental vacancies, however, are a substantial number of marginal units, many of which have been created by conversion, and these units lack the amenities necessary to acheive a satisfactory occupancy leveI. If these units were excluded, Ehe rental vacancy rate would be about seven to eight percent, sLill indicating some surplus of rental vacancies.

Sales Market General Market Conditions. In general, the market for sales housing, both new and existing, in the Brunswick HMA is weak at the present time. The sales market began to weaken in the late 195O's and grad- ualIy worsened during the early 1960's. Since the early part of 1965, the sales market has shown gradual improvement; although economic growth since that time has been slight, it has been coupled with a sharply reduced level of construcEion so that, gradually, excess va- cancies are being absorbed. The tight money market depressed new construction further, and also reduced the sale of existing houses. Speculative construction, which typically is a significant portion of total construction, has been virtually halted in the current year by the lack of mortgage funds. As late as 1965, speculative construc- tion accounted for about one-third of total construcEion in the Bruns- wick FMA. r5

The sales market is somewhat stronger on St. Simons rsland, which is now developing as an area of year-round occupancy. Most new home construction on the island is in the $2oro0o-$35rooo price range, with houses in the lower ranges ($2orooo-$25,ooo) selling somewhat better than the higher-priced homes. New construction on the main- land has been occurring primarily north of Brunswick, in the vicinity of the Glynco Naval Air Station. Prices in this area generally are in the $12,5OO to $17r5OO category.

The existing sales market in the HMA, although slow in the past few months, has shown signs of improving due, in parL, to the low level of new construction. Homes priced below $i5rooo generally are easier to sell than homes priced above this level.

Foreclosures. Slnce 1960 , the annual number of foreclosures on resi- dential properties in the Brunswick HMA has been generally upward. A total of only Il foreclosures were recorded in i96o; the number jumped to 51 in 1961 and then declined to 2g in 1962. Since that time, the trend has been upward, reaching 23o 1n 1965. rt appears that the level of foreclosures in 1966 will exceed the 1965 total. Trend of Foreclosures on Residential Propertv Brunswick. Georgia, HMA 1960-L966

Number of Year forec losures

1 960 ll 1961 5l 1962 28 r963 49 1964 s6 1965 230 t966a/ i86 ?/ Total foreclosures through August.

Source: County Clerk of Glynn Counry.

RentaI ],larke t rt is apparent from the current inventory distribution, with only 14 percent of the units in multifamily structures, that the rental in- ventory in the Brunswick HMA is composed primarily of single-family structures. currently, the rental market is quite weak (1o.5 percent rental vacancy ratio). AlEhough the number of rental vacancies is I6 excessive, many (possibly as high as one-third) of these units are of poor quality and lack the amenities necessary to attract prospective tenants. The newer units in the HMA are mainLaining satisfactory oc- cupancy levels. It should be noted, however, that relatively few new rental units have been placed on the market since 1960. A total of only 360 units ln structures wj.th two or more units have been authorized since 1960, an average of only 55 units a year. Most of the rental units added since 196O have been existing single-famiiy houses which have transferred from owner to renter status. A sub- stantial portion of the new apartments have been built in the vicin- ity of G1ynco NAS and many of the tenants are military personnel.

Urban Renewal

There are three urban renewal projects in the city of Brunswick; one (the Perry Park General Neighborhood Renewal Project , R-47) has been completed, one (Perry Park Proiect No. l, R-62) is in execution, and one (Bay Street General Neighborhood Renewal Proiect, R-81) is cur- rently under study.

The Perry Park Proiect No. 1 (R-62) is located adjacent to the down- town area and covers about 78 acres. There were abouL 21O housing units in the area when the project entered execution. To date, about 75 units have been demolished and during the three-year forecast pe- riod, the remaining units will be razed. Most of the units are sub- standard. Re-use will be primarily residential, and current plans call for construction of public low-rent housing units, moderate- income rental units, and inexpensive sales housing.

Public Housing

As of 0ctober 1966, there are 4J2 publlc housing units in the Bruns- wick HMA. In addition to the current inventory, 84 units are under constrrrction and 5l are in the pre-construction stage; these probably will be located in the urban renewal area.

Military Housing

At the present time, there are 3OJ on-base housing units at the Glynco Naval Air Station. 0f these units, 225 privately financed were con- structed in 1962. The remaining 82 units are appropriated fund housing, most of which were constructed in L957. All of the housing ls in good condltion and there are no plans for new construction. L7

Demand for Housing

Qu4nlilqtive Demand

Annual demand for additional housing in the Brunswlck HMA during the three-year forecast period is based on an expected yearly increase of 38O households and on the need to replace a relatively large number of units expected to be removed from the invenEory through demolition. Consideration also is given to the existing inventory composition, to the current excess number of adequate vacancies, and to the probabil- ity that some part of the demand for rental units will be supplied by single-family houses. Based on these considerations, demand for new housing is expected to total 3OO units annually. About 260 units of the annual demand will be for sales units and 40 for rental units. Ac the lower rents achievable with below-market-interest-rate financ- ing or assistance in land acquisition and cost, an annual demand for an additional 5O rental units may be developed. The demand estimate excludes demand for low-rent public housing and rent-supplement ac- commodations.

The projected annual demand for 3OO units annually is significantLy below the average of 45O units authorized annually during the 1960- 1965 period and the 375 units authorized in 1965. The lower demand reflects, primarily, the need to reduce the current level of vacancies, tempered somewhat by rhe expected increase in demolitions which, dur- ing the forecast period, will be almost double the annual average of the 1960-I966 period. Single-famity authorizations between 196O and [965 averaged 390 units annually; in 1965, a rotal of 29O single- family houses were authorized. Demand is forecast at 260 sales units annually in order to achieve a better balance in the sales market. During the forecast period, the single-family inventory is expected to sat.isfy a smaller portion of the rental demand than has been the case in the past. Multifamily unlt demand is projected at a rate of 40 units annually during the forecast period, compared with an average authorization of 60 units annually during the l96O-1965 pe- riod and 85 unit.s in 1965. The need to reduce substantially the number of rental vacancies will be assistedrin partrby increased demolition activity, as well as by fewer single-family homes trans- ferring from owner to renter status. The provision of 50 additional rental units a year at the lower rents achievable with below-market- interest-rate financing should permit an increase in the upgrading of families from less desirable housing in the area. 18

Qualitative Demand Sales Housing. Based on current family income, on typical ratios of income to purchase price, and on recent market experience, the annual demand for 26C- new sales units is expected to approximate the pattern shown in the following table. Annual Demand for New Sales Housin Brunswick Geor LA HMA October 1966-October 1969

Sales price Number of units Percent of total

Under $ 12, 5OO 45 t1 $ 12, 5OO - 74,ggg 40 t6 15, OOO - L7,4gg 45 L1 1 7, 5OO - L9,999 50 19 20, OOO - 24,ggg 55 2t 25,OOO anC over 25 10 Total 260 100 Rental Housing. The annual demand for 4O units of rental housing pro- duced with market-interest-rate financing will be absorbed best by the construction of units near the minimum gross rent levels achievable with such financing. fn the Brunswick HMA, these levels are about $9O for one-bedroom units, $lO5 for two-bedroom units, and $I2O for three- bedroom units.!/ Demand is expected to be concentrated in two-bedroom units.

Because of the high rental vacancy rate at the present time, however, the absorption of new rental units should be examined periodically. If the new units have not achieved a desirable occupancy level in a reasonable period of time, a reduction in the number of future addi- tions would be in order.

An annual demand for about 5O additional acceptable rental units at gross rents below these leveIs probably will require the utilization of below-market-interest-rate financing or assistance in land acqui- sition and cost. This demand can be best fulfilled if units are pro- vided at the lowest possible rents and primarily with three-bedroom uni ts .

L/ Calculated on the basis of a long-term mortgage (4O years) at 6. o percent interest and l\ percent initial annual curtai l; changes in these assumptions \^IilI affect minimum rents accordingly. APPENDIX TABLES Table I

Nonagricultural Emplovment b y Industry Group for Workers Cove red bv the Georgia Employment Securitv Law Brunswick, Georgia, Housing Market Area L959 - 7966 (Annual averages)

Jan. -March Indus trv L959 1960 1961 L962 t963 t964 1965 t965 t966

Total insured employment 9,35O 9,650 9,9OO 10,2OO 11,10C LL,625 11,45O 11,3O0 11,15O goo Manufac turing 4,725 4, 4,925 4,975 5,25O 5, 3OO 5,225 5 ,225 5,125 Food products L,725 L,925 1,7OO 1, 5OO 1, 600 L,525 L,4-75 1,450 1, 45O Lumber 325 325 325 350 350 325 300 300 300 Paper 750 715 800 850 97s L,O25 1 , O5O 1,o25 1,o75 Chemica 1 s 1,225 L,25O 7,515 1,600 7,5'75 1, 550 1 ,550 1,5'7 5 L,525 Machinery 400 350 325 425 600 550 525 525 550 Other 300 275 200 L75 L75 350 325 350 225

Nonmanufacturing 4,65C^ 4,950 4,975 5, 35O 5, 85O 6,325 6,225 6,o75 6,o25 Construction 900 615 900 1, OOO L,225 1,425 1,125 L,L25 1, OOO Trans., comm., and util. 275 325 350 300 350 350 375 375 400 Trade 1, 9OO 2,225 2, OOO 2,275 2,525 2,65o. 2,7OO 2,625 2,650 Fin., ins., and real est 250 250 275 300 325 425 425 425 400 Other 7,325 1,37 5 1, 45O 1, 45O 1,425 L,475 1, 600 1,5OO L,515 Note: Subtotals may not add to EotaIs because of rounding.

Source: Georgia Department of Labor, Employment Security Agency. Table 11

Estimated Percentage Distribution of All Families and Renter Households By Annual Income, After DeducEion of Federal lncome Tax Brunswick, Qeqf€ia, HMA 1966 and 1969

L966 L969 Annua I AII Renter AII Renter family income fami I ies househo ldsa/ fami I ies householdsa/ (, Under ,OOO 9 i3 8 1t $ 2,OOO - 2 ,999 9 11 8 10 3,OOO - 3 ,999 lo l2 9 I1 4,ooo - 4 ,999 10 1I 9 lo 5,OOO - 5 ,999 9 10 8 to

6,ooo - 6,ggg i o 1 2 to I 2 7,OOO - 7 ,999 9 9 9 9 8,OOO - 8,ggg 9 7 10 8 9,OOO - 9,999 6 4 7 5 Io,ooo and over I 9 I I 22 I 4 TotaI IOO 100 100 100

Median $6,350 $5,4OO $6,875 $5,85O a/ Excludes one-person renter households. Source: Estimated by Housing Market Analyst. Table III

Population and Household Trends Brunswick, Georgia , HI'trA 1950. 1960. L966. and 1969

Average annual chanee April 1, April 1, October 1, October 1, 1950- 1960 L960-L966 L966-1969 Area 1950 1960 L966 L9 69 W*.U.. p"t .3l tlriSEffiel Ir-b.Irc I Population Trends

Hl"lA total 29,046 4L,954 50,600 54,5OO t,29L 3.7 t,325 2.9 1,3OO 2.5

Brunswick L7,954 2L,7O3 23,OOO 23,525 375 1.9 2o0 o.9 t75 o.8 Remainder of HMA lL,092 20,25t 27,600 30,975 9L6 5.1 1,L25 4.8 1,125 3.8

Household Trends

HI'IA total 7,938 Lt,667 t4,175 T5,325 373 3.9 390 3.O 380 2.7

Brunswick 4,956 6,294 6,675 6,875 t34 2.4 60 0.9 65 o.9 Remainder of HMA 2,982 5,373 7,5CO 8,450 239 5.9 330 5.1 315 4.O al Derived through the use of a formula designed to calculate the average percentage change on a compound basis. pl Rounded.

Sources: 1950 and 196O Censuses of Popul,ation and Housing. 1966 and 1969 estimated by Housing Marker Analyst Table IV

Occupancv Characteris tics of the Housins Supplv Brunswick, Georgia, HMA 1950, 1960, and 1966

April 1, Apri 1 1, October 1, Occupancy and Tenure 1950 1960 1966

Total housing units g ,2o4 13 , 158 L5 ,8?-5 Occupied units 7,938 Lt,667 14,t75 Or,sner -occupied 4,239 6,-714 g, 4oo Percent s3.4% 51.5% 59.37" Renter- oceupied 3, 7OO 4,953 5,775 Percent 46 .67" 42.57" 4-r-.7%

Total vacant 1,266 l,4gl 1. 650 Available vacant _3-09 747 900 For sale 35 t7L 225 Homeovrner vacancy rate .97" 2.57" 2.67" For renE 332 576 675 Renter vacancy rate 9.27. LO.4% LO.5% Other vacant 898 744 750

Sources: 195O and 1960 Censuses of Housing. 1966 estimated by Housing Market Analyst. Table V

Private I Financed Hou S 1np Units Authorized bv Buildine Permits4/ Brunswick Geor 1a HMA 1960 - L966

First six mcnths L960 t96t L962 1963 1964 1965 L965 1966

HMA total 354 3t2 439 668 542 375 285 122 One unit 292 302 m 6t6 61 N lA- TD. Two to four units 62 10 8 25 64 42 NA 2 Five or more units 26 7L 43 NA 8

Brunswick toEal 110 58 82 t49 r25 138 Lt7 28 One unit 50 50 80 103 86 83 NA 25 Two to four units 60 20 28 26 NA 2 Five or more units : ? 26 11 29 NA

Remainder of HI4A 244 254 351 519 4L7 237 158 94 One unit 242 252 351 513 321 207 NA 86 Two to four uniEs 2 6 6 36 t5 NA Five or more units : 60 14 NA 8

NA Not avai lable. a/ Excludes 225 pubLic housing units.

Sources: Bureau of the Census, C-4J Construction Report,s. Local Building InspecEors. Table VL

Bruusuick, Georgia, Pos Vac Su

september 8. 1966

Total residences and apartm€nts Rcsidences trai I ers

\ acant units Total possible Itnder Iotal possible I nder siblc I nder I otal Postal area deliverrr:s \ll "" trsed New const. delireries {ll -. I ."d )ieu !.,n:r Jeliien {11 ? lsed Ne* c on st.

Brunsu ick 13 ,919 870 6.2 826 44 147 12. 56r 622 5.0 582 40 r: 1.4I8 248 t1 .5 244 ! 92 555 29 5.2

Hain offlce 11,849 708 5.0 610 38 13 4 10, 5 10 490 4.7 456 34 50 1,339 218 I6.3 2t4 4 84 500 28 5.5

St. Simoos Island 2,130 t62 1.6 r56 13 2,051 r32 6.4 t26 79 30 18. 0 30 I 55 1.8

dormirxies; nor does it cover boa.ded-up residences or 6parrments Lhat are not inrended f<,r o.cupancy.

one pos*iblr dalivery

Source: FllA posLal vacancy surve) conducred by collaborarins postmastcr(s)

Pt88ol+-r HUfWosh,, D. C.