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Market Insights & Strategy
S Market Insights & Morning news summary Strategy Global News Global Markets Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus; th 4 March 2020 10-year US yield plunges below 1% for first time in 150 years: The US Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by half a percentage point in the first such emergency move since the 2008 financial crisis, amid mounting concern that the coronavirus outbreak threatens to stall the record US economic expansion. The rate cut, which came between the central bank’s regularly scheduled meetings, was announced hours after Group of Seven finance chiefs held a rare teleconference to pledge they’d do all they can to combat the fast-moving health crisis. “My colleagues and I took this action to help the US economy keep strong in the face of new risks to the economic outlook,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a press conference on Tuesday. “The spread of the coronavirus has brought new challenges and risks.” The vote for the rate cut to a range of 1% to 1.25% was unanimous even though the Fed said in a statement that the “fundamentals of the US economy remain strong.” Powell left the door open to further action by the central bank at its next scheduled meeting March 17-18. “In the weeks and months ahead we will continue to closely monitor developments,” he said. “The virus and the measures that are being taken to contain it will surely weigh on economic activity, both here and abroad, for some time,” Powell said The Fed chief acknowledged that the Fed doesn’t have all the answers, adding that it would take a multi-faceted response from governments, health care professionals, central bankers and others to stem the human and economic damage. -
EGYPT, the IMF and EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE Farah Halime
MEMO POLICY EGYPT, THE IMF AND EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE Farah Halime Egypt is in the grip of profound economic and political SUMMARY Egypt is in the grip of dual crises that are fuelling crises, each of which reinforces the other and imperils dangerous discontent. First, it faces contentious the prospects for long-term social stability, growth, and parliamentary elections amid a mounting challenge development. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the legitimacy of post-Mubarak institutions. has made a $4.8 billion loan conditional on reforms that Second, in order to secure a $4.8 billion loan it believes are essential in order to create sustainable from the International Monetary Fund, it must growth in Egypt. But the government in Cairo is reluctant implement austerity measures and broad structural to implement these reforms, which would have a negative reforms. The IMF loan would provide temporary short-term impact on the living standards of many millions fiscal relief and unlock billions in additional aid, of Egyptians. The toxic political atmosphere is endangering which European, US, and other donors have made conditional on Cairo adopting the Fund’s terms. prospects of achieving the political consensus over economic However, the political risks attached to enforcing reform that the IMF believes is essential to the programme’s the austerity programme leave an increasingly success. The inflationary impact of the growing balance-of- fragile Egyptian government reluctant to sign on. payments deficit threatens a new season of social outrage on the streets. This memo argues that it is shortsighted for the European Union and key member states to withhold The IMF loan is central to Egypt’s immediate economic all of the $6.5 billion in economic support they have prospects, not only because of the likely impact of the earmarked for Egypt until the IMF accord is signed. -
Contrasting Evidence Across Developed and Developing Countries ☆ Magda Kandil Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates (CBUAE), P.O
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Borsa I˙stanbul Review 15-4 (2015) 223–236 http://www.elsevier.com/journals/borsa-istanbul-review/2214-8450 On the benefits of nominal appreciations: Contrasting evidence across developed and developing countries ☆ Magda Kandil Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates (CBUAE), P.O. Box 854, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates Received 4 March 2015; revised 2 June 2015; accepted 23 June 2015 Available online 14 July 2015 Abstract The paper studies determinants of flexibility of the nominal effective exchange rate and the effects of exchange rate shocks on macroeconomic variables and key components of the external balances using data for a sample of advanced and developing countries. The composite evidence points to the positive effects of appreciation through cheaper imports in support of higher growth and lower price inflation in advanced and developing countries. However, the negative effects of appreciation are more pervasive on the external balances in developing countries. The implication is developing countries remain highly dependent on exports of commodities. In contrast, advanced countries are more diversified and ahead in capitalizing on currency appreciation to mobilize investment growth, a channel that boosts competitiveness and mitigates the adverse effect of appreciation on external stability. The evidence attests to the need to create an environment that is more conducive to investment growth in developing countries. Copyright © 2015, Borsa I˙stanbul Anonim S¸irketi. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). JEL classification: E61; E62; E63; E32; E21 Keywords: Cyclicality; Exchange rate shocks; Supply-side constraints; Developing and advanced countries 1. -
Dreams of Utopia in the Deserts of Egypt and Greater Cairo’S Chaotic Reality
American University in Cairo AUC Knowledge Fountain Theses and Dissertations 2-1-2017 The mirage: Dreams of utopia in the deserts of Egypt and Greater Cairo’s chaotic reality Michael Bufano Follow this and additional works at: https://fount.aucegypt.edu/etds Recommended Citation APA Citation Bufano, M. (2017).The mirage: Dreams of utopia in the deserts of Egypt and Greater Cairo’s chaotic reality [Master’s thesis, the American University in Cairo]. AUC Knowledge Fountain. https://fount.aucegypt.edu/etds/653 MLA Citation Bufano, Michael. The mirage: Dreams of utopia in the deserts of Egypt and Greater Cairo’s chaotic reality. 2017. American University in Cairo, Master's thesis. AUC Knowledge Fountain. https://fount.aucegypt.edu/etds/653 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by AUC Knowledge Fountain. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of AUC Knowledge Fountain. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 Part One: Sadat’s Urban Development Policy .............................................................................. 9 Chapter One: The Historical Motives behind the State’s Desert Projects .......................... 9 Chapter Two: The Construction Boom ............................................................................ 27 Chapter Three: The Outcome of Desert -
A Comparative Analysis of Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Economic Activity: the Cases of Egypt and Turkey
A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: THE CASES OF EGYPT AND TURKEY Magda Kandil and Nazire Nergiz Dincer Working Paper 0722 December 2007 The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or its management. The views presented are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the SPO. Magda Kandil , International Monetary Fund, USA Email: [email protected] Nazire Nergiz Dincer , State Planning Organization, Turkey Email: [email protected] Abstract The paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output, the price level, and the real value of components of aggregate demand in Egypt and Turkey. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods and producers’ forecasts of relative competitiveness. In Turkey, anticipated exchange rate appreciation has significant adverse effects, contracting the growth of real output and the demand for investment and exports, while raising price inflation. Further, unanticipated exchange rate fluctuations have asymmetric effects that highlight the importance of unanticipated depreciation in shrinking output growth and the growth of private consumption and investment, despite an increase in export growth. In Egypt, anticipated exchange rate appreciation decreases export growth. Given asymmetry, the net effect of unanticipated exchange rate fluctuations decreases real output and consumption growth and increases export growth, on average over time. -
Egypt, the IMF, and European Economic Assistance
MEMO POLICY EGYPT, THE IMF AND EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE Farah Halime Egypt is in the grip of profound economic and political SUMMARY Egypt is in the grip of dual crises that are fuelling crises, each of which reinforces the other and imperils dangerous discontent. First, it faces contentious the prospects for long-term social stability, growth, and parliamentary elections amid a mounting challenge development. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the legitimacy of post-Mubarak institutions. has made a $4.8 billion loan conditional on reforms that Second, in order to secure a $4.8 billion loan it believes are essential in order to create sustainable from the International Monetary Fund, it must growth in Egypt. But the government in Cairo is reluctant implement austerity measures and broad structural to implement these reforms, which would have a negative reforms. The IMF loan would provide temporary short-term impact on the living standards of many millions fiscal relief and unlock billions in additional aid, of Egyptians. The toxic political atmosphere is endangering which European, US, and other donors have made conditional on Cairo adopting the Fund’s terms. prospects of achieving the political consensus over economic However, the political risks attached to enforcing reform that the IMF believes is essential to the programme’s the austerity programme leave an increasingly success. The inflationary impact of the growing balance-of- fragile Egyptian government reluctant to sign on. payments deficit threatens a new season of social outrage on the streets. This memo argues that it is shortsighted for the European Union and key member states to withhold The IMF loan is central to Egypt’s immediate economic all of the $6.5 billion in economic support they have prospects, not only because of the likely impact of the earmarked for Egypt until the IMF accord is signed. -
Allied Social Science Associations Program
ALLIED SOCIAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATIONS PROGRAM San Diego, CA January 4–6, 2013 Contract negotiations, management and meeting arrangements for ASSA meetings are conducted by the American Economic Association. Participants should be aware that the media has open access to all sessions and events at the meetings. i Thanks to the 2013 American Economic Association Program Committee Members Nicholas Barberis Stefano DellaVigna Kathryn Dominguez Erica Field Don Fullerton Claudia Goldin Mikhail Golosov Gordon Hanson James Hines Seema Jayachandran Anil Kashyap Larry Katz Rosa Matzkin Chris Paxson Nancy Rose Bruce Sacerdote David Weil Justin Wolfers Cover Art—“San Diego, Distant Skyline” by Kevin E. Cahill Oil Pastel and ( Colored Pencil, 15 x 14 . Kevin is a research economist with the Sloan ″ ″ ) Center on Aging and Work at Boston College and a managing director at ECONorthwest in Boise, ID. Kevin invites you to visit his personal website at www.kcahillstudios.com. ii Contents General Information................................iv ASSA Hotels .................................... ix Listing of Advertisers and Exhibitors ............... xxiii ASSA Executive Officers..........................xxv Summary of Sessions by Organization .............. xviii Daily Program of Events ............................1 Program of Sessions Thursday, January 3 .........................27 Friday, January 4 ...........................28 Saturday, January 5 ........................138 Sunday, January 6 .........................252 Subject Area Index...............................329 Index of Participants . 332 iii General Information PROGRAM SCHEDULES A listing of sessions where papers will be presented and another covering activities such as business meetings and receptions are provided in this program. Admittance is limited to those wearing badges. Each listing is arranged chronologically by date and time of the activity; the hotel and room location for each session and function are indicated. -
External Cyclicality in the Face of Aggregate Demand Shocks:Pros
VOL. 4, NO. 5, December 2015 ISSN 2307-2466 International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management ©2011-2015. All rights reserved. http://www.ejournalofscience.org External Cyclicality in the Face of Aggregate Demand Shocks: Pros and Cons across Developed and Developing Countries Magda Kandil Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates (CBUAE), Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates ABSTRACT Using data for a sample of advanced and developing countries, the paper studies variation in the effects of aggregate demand shocks on the external sector and underlying components and distinguishes between the effects of expansionary and contractionary shocks. The aim is to study the determinants and implications of cyclicality across representative countries in each group. The composite evidence points to high degree of cyclicality in many countries. Based on time- series correlations, there is a stronger cyclical co-movement between the trade and current account balances across advanced countries, compared to developing countries. Further, fluctuations in the financial balance are dependent on developments in exports in many developing countries. The determinants of external vulnerability vary with macroeconomic indicators. The evidence points to higher vulnerability of the external balance with respect to higher trend inflation across developing countries. In addition, constraints on capacity in developing countries could risk external stability as trend growth increases across countries. Government spending is an important determinant of external stability in developing countries, reflecting the adverse implications of higher government spending and a widening fiscal deficit on debt sustainability and external financial flows. Further, private consumption is a key driver of aggregate uncertainty and cyclical fluctuations in the external balances across developing countries. -
UAE Banks' Performance and the Oil Price Shock: Indicators For
UAE Banks’ Performance and the Oil Price Shock: 1 Indicators for Conventional and Islamic Banks By Magda Elsayed Kandil2 Chief Economist and Head of Research and Statistics Department Central Bank of the UAE, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates Minko Markovski3 Senior Research Analyst Central Bank of the UAE, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates 1 The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as those of the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates. 2 Contacts: Central Bank of the UAE, Abu Dhabi, PO Box 854, UAE Tel: +971 2 691 5645, Fax: +971 2 665 8426, e-mail: [email protected] 3 Contacts: Central Bank of the UAE, Abu Dhabi, PO Box 854, UAE Tel: +971 2 691 5795, Fax: +971 2 665 8426, e-mail: [email protected] UAE Banks’ Performance and the Oil Price Shock: Indicators for Conventional and Islamic Banks Abstract This study attempts to identify whether the oil price fall to a “new normal” has had an impact on banks’ performance in the UAE, such as Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) in addition to credit and deposits growth for a sample of the 22 national banks in the country over a period of 15 quarters. The oil price fall has had a negative impact on all four banking indicators. In addition, the analysis evaluates the difference in ROA, ROE and credit and deposit growth by bank type, conventional vs. Islamic banks, across the sample. The results indicate that Islamic banks have a higher lending and deposit growth rates, however conventional banks tend to have better indicators of performance.