Fire today ManagementVolume 69 • No. 2 Wind Models Fire Research Fuel Models Fire Research Forecasting Suppression Costs Smoke Management United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service This Issue… This issue provides a glimpse into the role that research and technology play in the management of fires today and into the future. Over the years, the Forest Service and the interagency fire community have considered not only the science behind fire itself, but also the science of predicting fires and what is likely to happen when a fire-start occurs. Many aspects of fire management—fuels, wildland-urban expansion, and environmental factors among them—are different today than they were even a decade ago, making it more critical than ever to use emerging science and state-of-the-art methods of prediction to keep firefighters and the public safe. The articles in this issue reflect just a few of the models, tools, and approaches that are currently shaping and advancing the science and management of fire to achieve that end. —Tory Henderson, Issue Coordinator Erratum In Fire Management Today vol. 69, no. 1 [Winter 2009], the caption for the photo of snow geese near a Marsh Master in the “Myth Busting about Wildlife” article gave an incorrect credit. It should have credited Drew Wilson, Virginia Pilot. Fire Management Today is published by the Forest Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC. The Secretary of Agriculture has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Fire Management Today is for sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, at: Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: 202-512-1800 Fax: 202-512-2250 Mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001 Fire Management Today is available on the World Wide Web at <http://www.fs.fed.us/fire/fmt/index.html>. Tom Vilsack, Secretary Melissa Frey U.S. Department of Agriculture General Manager Thomas L. Tidwell, Chief Karen Mora Forest Service Managing Editor Tom Harbour, Director Editors Fire and Aviation Management EMC Publishing Arts The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or part of an individual’s income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audio- tape, etc.) should contact USDA’s TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimi- nation, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, or call (800) 795-3272 (voice) or (202) 720-6382 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. September 2009 Trade Names (FMT) The use of trade, firm, or corporation names in this publication is for the information and convenience of the reader. Such use does not constitute an official endorsement of any product or service by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Individual authors are responsible for the technical accuracy of the material presented in Fire Management Today. Fire Management Today 2 Fire Management today Volume 69 • No. 2 On the Cover: CONTENTS Anchor Point—Wildland Fire Decision Support System Tools .......4 Tom Harbour The Key Decision Log: Facilitating High Reliability and Organizational Learning ......................................... .5 Anne E. Black A Multi-Disciplinary Approach to Fire Management Strategy, Suppression Costs, Community Interaction, and Organizational Performance ..................................... .11 Anne E. Black, Krista Gebert, Sarah McCaffrey, Toddi Steelman, and Janie Canton-Thompson Efforts To Update Firefighter Safety Zone Guidelines ............15 Flames run through a stand of trees Bret Butler as winds push a fire forward during the Skinner Fire, Tusayan Ranger Modeling Fuel Succession .............................. .18 District, Kaibab National Forest, Brett Davis, Jan van Wagtendonk, Jen Beck, and Kent van Wagtendonk Arizona. Photograph by Mike Uebel, Fuel Age and Fire Spread: Natural Conditions Versus Opportunities Forest Service, Kaibab National Forest, 2005. for Fire Suppression ............................... .22 Richard W. Halsey, Jon E. Keeley, and Kit Wilson The USDA Forest Service’s Fire and Aviation Fuel Treatment Guidebook: Illustrating Treatment Effects Management Staff has adopted a logo on Fire Hazard ................................... .29 reflecting three central principles of wildland Morris Johnson, David L. Peterson, and Crystal Raymond fire management: A Suite of Fire, Fuels, and Smoke Management Tools ...........34 • Innovation: We will respect and value Roger D. Ottmar, Clint S. Wright, and Susan J. Prichard thinking minds, voices, and thoughts of those that challenge the status quo while Using Wind Models To More Effectively Manage Wildfire .........40 focusing on the greater good. Brian Potter and Bret Butler • Execution: We will do what we say we Assessing Changes in Canopy Fuels and Potential Fire Behavior will do. Achieving program objectives, improving diversity, and accomplishing Following Ponderosa Pine Restoration ....................47 targets are essential to our credibility. John Paul Roccaforte, Peter Z. Fulè, and W. Wallace Covington • Discipline: What we do, we will do well. Fiscal, managerial, and operational discipline are at the core of our ability to SHORT FEATURE fulfill our mission. Web Site on Fire .................................... .10 Firefighter and public safety is our first priority. Volume 69 • No. 2 3 by Tom Harbour Anchor Director, Fire and Aviation Management Point Forest Service WILDLAND FIRE DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM TOOLS he Forest Service has always new improvements to the Wildland to engage at another time because had a symbiotic relationship Fire Situation Analysis (WFSA), the the risks outweigh the benefits. Tbetween the practitioner and Wildland Fire Implementation Plan the scientist. Throughout the years, (WFIP), and Long-Term Incident When we look to the future, the this relationship has aided the wild- Planning (LTIP) to create one sup- role of science will continue to be land firefighter in becoming a bet- port tool. This system provides very important to the firefighter ter, more efficient, safer firefighter agency administrators and incident on the ground. It will provide on the ground. commanders the ability to use newer, better tools to enhance per- scaleable decision support tools formance, be more cost-effective, Over the past three decades, when considering fire behavior and will provide improved predict- wildland fires have dramatically modeling, economic principles, and ability for line officers and fire increased in size and complex- information technology, and will management officials, allowing ity. Although fires have changed, result in decisions that are safer them to manage fire—regardless the tools in our decision support and more effective for the firefight- of complexity—in the safest, most toolbox have remained relatively efficient, most cost-effective man- constant. The major tool avail- ner. The WFDSS exemplifies our able to line officers and incident When we look to the dedication to working toward this managers—initially, the Escaped future, the role of future for fire management. Fire Situation Analysis (EFSA) and science will continue to now the Wildland Fire Situation Analysis (WFSA)—has not changed be very important to for nearly three decades. It is time the firefighter on the Further Information to adapt! ground. InciWeb may be accessed at <http://165.221.39.44/>. Fire and Aviation Management is proud to release the Wildland er and the public. The WFDSS pro- Forest Service employees may Fire Decision Support System vides fire management officials the access Tom Harbour’s Blog by (WFDSS), designed to streamline intelligence to understand where accessing <http://fsweb.wo.fs.fed. and improve decisionmaking pro- the fire is at a particular time and us/>, clicking on FS Blog, enter- cesses while taking advantage of when it will reach a particular area. ing e–authentication, clicking vast improvements in science and It will allow firefighters on the on the tab labeled Directory of technology. The current evolution ground to go toe-to-toe with the Blogs, and then click on Tom’s through the WFDSS combines the fire when it is necessary and safe to Blog. best of the former systems with do so, but help them identify when Fire Management Today 4 THE KEY DECISION LOG: FACILITATING HIGH RELIABILITY AND ORGANIZATIONAL LEARNING Anne E. Black f you were involved in the 2008 fire season in the West, you We asked two questions: “How do you I may have heard the term “Key define success?” and “How do you know Decision Log” or “KDL.” This article describes the KDL concept, when you’re achieving it?” it’s intent (past and present), how it was applied in 2008, and where the “How do you know when you’re Costs, Community Interaction, and practice is heading. achieving it?” The most common Organizational Performance, in this response—meeting the line officer’s issue). We grounded our thinking The KDL’s purpose is to facilitate objectives—was also acknowledged on