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Headland's General Election Key Seat Guide – the North of England

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Headland's General Election Key Seat Guide – the North of England 15 November 2019 General election key seat guide The North of England his is the first in a series of Headland’s Key Seat 2019 General Election Guides. This election will be a complex race with the two main parties under challenge from T smaller parties and Brexit. Based on an assessment of election history, demographics and an in- depth knowledge of local areas, we will lay out which seats are going to be the most interesting and tightly fought during this election. Part one of the guide starts with the North of England – looking at the North West, North East and Yorkshire & Humberside. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • The Conservatives must win significant numbers of Labour seats in the North of England to form a majority government while offsetting losses in Scotland, the South and London. • While the North of England is historically a Labour heartland, the impact of the Brexit referendum continues to create waves. Labour fortresses in former mining, steel and textile towns are within touching distance for the Conservatives as working-class voters become less loyal to Labour. • However, we are unlikely to see huge amounts of ‘switching’ between Labour and Conservatives – the big question will be how much each of the main parties lose to the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats. Headland briefing | general election key seat guide –north of england | 1 THE NORTH WEST A key battleground in this election, the marginal seats here are Labour/Conservative fights. They all sit outside the main urban areas of Manchester and Liverpool where Labour will likely continue their dominance. It will be in the commuter and market towns of Cumbria, Cheshire and Lancashire that the toughest fights will take place. Below profiles just five of what will be several interesting contests. CREWE & NANTWICH Incumbent: Laura Smith (Labour) Majority: 48 Crewe & Nantwich is the most marginal seat in the North West and traditionally considered a ‘bellwether’. The current Labour MP, Laura Smith, is a close ally of Jeremy Corbyn and made headlines last year by calling for a general strike. Her main challenge is from Conservative candidate Kieran Mullan. Mullan is a local doctor and son of a nurse and policeman – two things he will undoubtedly highlight. Smith has a tiny majority of 48 and just over 60% of her constituents voted for Brexit. She broke the Labour whip to vote against ‘pro-Remain’ motions in Parliament, but the chances of this cutting through with her electorate are slim. The constituency is becoming a Manchester commuter town but the decline in Labour’s traditional working-class vote (attributed by many to the Party’s Brexit position) offsets the growing support from young liberal professionals moving into the area. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN BARROW IN FURNESS Incumbent: John Woodcock (Independent, elected Labour) Majority: 209 Barrow in Furness on the Cumbrian coast is the home of Britain’s nuclear fleet and has been a marginal constituency for many years. Represented since 2010 by Labour-turned-Independent MP John Woodcock, it has been drifting away from the Party for over a decade – Woodcock secured a majority of just 209 in 2017. An aging population, big pro-Leave voter base and Jeremy Corbyn’s views on nuclear weapons has made this a key Conservative target. With Woodcock announcing he is standing down as an MP, the chances of Labour holding this seat seem very slim. If the Conservatives don’t scoop this one up, they will be struggling to secure their majority. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN Headland briefing | general election key seat guide –north of england | 2 WARRINGTON SOUTH Incumbent: Faisal Rashid (Labour) Majority: 2,549 A classic Labour/Conservative marginal, Warrington South is a geographically split seat – with the Manchester Shipping Canal forming a boundary between two distinct voting areas. The north of the seat is a relatively traditional working-class community. To the south of the canal is a more ‘Tory’ middle- class community, with a chunk of Liberal Democrat votes to the south east in the town of Lymm. Labour won the seat back from the Conservatives in 2017 on the back of a collapsing UKIP vote, much of which had been Labour votes in the north of the constituency. The Conservatives will be hoping that the Brexit Party is able to replicate the UKIP effect in the seat – taking Leave voters from Labour with the Liberal Democrats gaining Remain votes. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN COPELAND Incumbent: Trudy Harrison (Conservative) Majority: 1,695 The Lake District seat of Copeland had its moment in the political sun at the start of 2017 when it flipped to the Conservatives in a by-election, ending more than 80 years of Labour dominance. Much like Barrow, the Labour leadership’s view on nuclear weapons and a large rural community make this a key defensive target for the Conservatives. Labour will hope their messages of increased spending on public services and devolution will appeal to voters who might previously have left them. The Party needs seats like Copeland to have a chance of forming a government. However, if this election is determined by Brexit, this seat will stay Conservative. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE HOLD WORKINGTON Incumbent: Sue Hayman (Labour) Majority: 3,925 Sharing its name with the Conservative’s target voter – the stereotypical working-class, pro-Brexit male known as ‘Workington Man’ – this is where the Brexit Party launched its election campaign. Once a centre of steel, textiles and automotive manufacturing, the constituency has seen a steady rise in job losses and lowering wages. It is what many people view as the archetypal ‘left behind community’. The constituency has been a Labour seat for almost 100 years. The Party, whose MP Sue Hayman is the Shadow Environment Secretary, will be hoping that the Conservative and Brexit parties split the Leave-voting coalition. However, if Labour loses votes to the Brexit Party the Conservatives will be hoping to clinch this seat. The seat is therefore a crucial component to building Boris Johnson’s majority. Headland prediction: LABOUR HOLD* *This will be one of the closest fights in the country Headland briefing | general election key seat guide –north of england | 3 YORKSHIRE & THE HUMBER A diverse region encompassing cities like Leeds and cultural centres such as Hull, to ‘left behind’ towns including Huddersfield and Grimsby, Yorkshire & The Humber has an equally varied electoral record. Conservative strongholds in the northern rural communities and Labour heartlands in the former industrial towns of the south mean the region is home to some of the most important seats in the country. As a result, it is where political shifts caused by Brexit may be most starkly felt – with the Conservatives looking to break Labour’s dominance in Leave-voting towns. KEIGHLEY Incumbent: John Grogan (Labour) Majority: 249 Birthplace of Labour spinner Alastair Campbell, this semi-rural seat on the Yorkshire Pennines border is a classic Conservative/Labour marginal. It has changed hands 11 times since the Second World War and is now a Leeds and Bradford commuter area. Unlike many of its neighbouring seats, by virtue of its textile history, it has a significant, and increasing minority Pakistani and Bangladeshi community. The Labour candidate, John Grogan, won the seat in 2017 by just 249 votes. With a narrowly Leave-voting population (about 53%) he will have to fight to keep hold of it. Labour will hope that the increase in the Pakistani population, and a slightly younger electorate than three years ago, will counteract voter attrition to the Conservatives, Brexit and Liberal Democrat parties. However, as the most marginal seat in Yorkshire the odds are on the Conservatives coming out on top. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN PUDSEY Incumbent: Stuart Andrew (Conservative) Majority: 331 Traditionally a Conservative safe seat, Labour’s unexpected victory in 1997, holding the seat until 2010, means many people view it as a marginal. Indeed, the majority that popular Conservative MP Stuart Andrew holds of just 331 would point to that. However, in 2017 Labour successfully managed to coalesce a ‘Remain’ coalition around the Conservatives, receiving 46.7% of the vote versus 47.4% for the Tories. That will be more difficult this time due to the resurgent Liberal Democrats and the Green Party vote (they didn’t stand in the last election). The Labour candidate who only recently joined from the far-left Socialist Party (and had a very difficult interview on 5Live in which she compared celebrating the death of Tony Blair to that of Hitler) means Labour are very much outsiders in this seat. However, this Remain-voting constituency may wish to punish the Government and so the Conservatives will have to fight to hold the seat. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE HOLD Headland briefing | general election key seat guide –north of england | 4 CALDER VALLEY Incumbent: Craig Whittaker (Conservative) Majority: 609 Somewhat of a rarity in this election – a non-urban seat that Labour might gain – Calder Valley has been a Labour target since they lost it in 2010. Indeed, it has been getting more and more marginal since then. An increase in young, liberal and left-wing residents in the main conurbation of Hebden Bridge, coupled with increasing awareness and agitation around climate change by several years of significant flooding, makes this a seat that is trending leftward. The Green Party deciding not to stand and a popular local Labour Councillor Josh Fenton-Glynn as the candidate means this looks like a Labour gain. Headland prediction: LABOUR GAIN HARROGATE AND KNARESBOROUGH Incumbent: Andrew Jones (Conservative) Majority: 18,168 The leafy, wealthy north Yorkshire town of Harrogate, famed for its cream teas, on paper looks like it should be a safe Conservative seat.
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