A summarized analysis of the current state of areas affected by the snowfalls in the Republic of Bulgaria and a forecast for the development of the situation Over the past few days the hydrometeorological situation in the country became complicated due to the heavy snowfalls and the rising river levels mainly in southern Bulgaria. The heavy snows and snowdrifts disconnected part of the transport infrastructure in the country and some settlements were cut off from the world, which required the use of Red Cross teams in order to supply the destitute population with food and water. The heavy wet snow caused power outages due to fallen trees, which cut off the power lines. Over 400 settlements in the districts of Kardzhali and Haskovo were left without electricity, there have been landslides on the roads which were closed to traffic, impeding motor vehicle movement. Due to the complicated situation in some areas there have been serious accidents. The blizzard interrupted the railway traffic in a number of railway sections due to damaged overhead lines. The fallen trees and rocks have also led to traffic disruption in some areas. Passenger transport is provided by buses. Following the snowfall, an intensive thawing has started as well as increasing of river levels. Ropotamo River has overflowed again flooding large areas in the Burgas municipality. About 200 cubic meters per second have been drained from the Studen Kladenets reservoir since 17:00 on 7/3/2015. The Ivaylovgrad reservoir is overflowing as it cannot contain the water influx from the Studen Kladenets reservoir. Discharging of large quantities of water can pose a risk of flooding vast areas in Northern Greece, bordering the region of Krumovgrad and Ivaylovgrad. 1. DAY-BY-DAY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SITUATION Hydrometeorological situation on 6/3/2015 Code Red for heavy snowfalls and strong winds was issued for Friday for the regions of Smolyan and Kardzhali. It is the highest level warning with a forecast for extreme meteorological phenomena and high risk of substantial damage to the infrastructure and the environment, as well as an increased risk of casualties. Code Orange1 for strong winds and significant amounts of rain and snow - up to 30-40 liters/sq.m, is in force for Pazardzhik, Plovdiv, Stara Zagora and Haskovo, where the forecast is for strong winds as well.1 Code Yellow has been issued for the rest of the country, with warnings of strong northern winds, intensive rainfalls up to 70 l/sq m, blizzards and snowdrifts. Fig. 1. Codes for dangerous meteorological phenomena for 06/03/2015 1 Code orange means danger. The forecast is for dangerous and extremely dangerous meteorological phenomena. There is great risk of material damage and casualties. Be very careful, follow the detailed information of expected weather conditions and follow the recommendation of the authorities. Hydrometeorological situation on 7/3/2015 Fig. 2. Codes for dangerous meteorological phenomena for 07/03/2015 The weather across almost the entire country was cloudy with heavy snowfalls. In the districts of Smolyan, Kardzhali and Haskovo was declared the highest Code Red due to likely heavy rains and snow, mainly in the Fore Balkan and in the Rhodope region where amounts reached 60-80 l/sq m. Winds were light, and in the eastern part of the country moderate to strong from the northeast. Conditions for blizzards and snowdrifts have occured. In ten districts in northern and central Bulgaria (Montana, Vratsa, Lovech, Gabrovo, Veliko Tarnovo, Targovishte, Razgrad, Pazardzhik, Plovdiv and Stara Zagora) a Code Orange was in force due to the expected heavy snowfalls. Code Yellow was issued for the rest of the country. Code Yellow was declared in the Black Sea region and the district of Yambol, due to snowfalls and strong wind. There was moderate to strong northwestern wind reaching 20-22 m/sec. The situation in the district of Kardzhali was extremely heavy. In some places the snow was over 1.50 m. in depth, which led to the interruption of transport communications to a number of villages and neighbourhoods. Teams of the Red Cross handed out food and water in the evening. Over 400 settlements in the region of Kardzhali and Haskovo were left without electricity. Many roads were closed. Crisis Headquarters worked in Kardzhali during the night. Studen Kladenets reservoir has overflowed and the water levels of the rivers Arda and Varbitsa have risen. Fig. 3. Studen Kladenets Reservoir. Fig. 4. The area of overflowing of Ropotamo River. Fig. 5. The overflowing Ropotamo River. About 200 cubic meters per second were drained from the reservoir Studen Kladenets from 17:00 on 7/3/2015, as two of the nine valves of the facility were open. According to data by the Crisis Headquarters in Kardzhali, there is no risk for the people living in the river valley of Arda, however vast areas in Northern Greece bordering with the regions of Krumovgrad and Ivaylovgrad are in danger of being flooded. Ivaylovgrad Reservoir has overflowed because it cannot contain the influx of the Studen Kladenets Reservoir. The Ropotamo River overflowed again and flooded vast areas in the district of Burgas. Its waters spread over a huge territory. As a result, the road between Veselie and Yasna near Primorsko was closed for traffic. Due to the complicated meteorological situation the traffic in the country was heavily obstructed. In some areas there were serious accidents. The blizzard interrupted the train traffic in six railway sections in the country. As a result of failure of the overhead lines trains were not moving between Pazardzhik and Stamboliyski and along the line Tulovo - Zmeyovo. Trees and rocks cut off the traffic on the lines Velingrad - Tsvetino and Razlog - Belitsa. Passengers were transported by bus. Fig. 6. Blocked road sections as of 7/3/2015. Hydrometeorological situation on 8/3/2015 Fig. 7. Codes for dangerous meteorological phenomena for 8/3/2015 On 08/03/2015, the weather in Bulgaria was cloudy with rainfalls, and snowfalls in the mountain areas and high fields, mainly in the western part of the Upper Thracian Plain. Code Orange was issued for the districts of Pazardzhik, Plovdiv, Smolyan and Kardzhali where it will continue to snow. In the mountains the snow cover will increase by 20-30 cm. The situation in Kardzhali region remains heavy, the state of emergency is still in force. The District Governor of Kardzhali announced that so far about 380 settlements in the region were left without electricity. A number of teams from all over the country worked to fix the damages, however the failures were very serious. There were fallen posts and the electric distribution system operator was not able to deliver electricity to the substations. Works were done in all areas where there were accidents. According to the experts, there have not been such accidents in the last 20 years. Many roads are closed and equipment is expected to be dispatched in the hinterland in order to take part in the cleaning as snow in some places has reached more than 1.50 cm. "There are currently no destitute people in the district. Since this morning 8 teams of Regional Directorate "Fire Safety and Civil Protection" have been working to remedy the situation after the snowfall in the area. There are no destitute people at the time. Assistance to the firefighters from Kardzhali is provided by their colleagues from Plovdiv and Stara Zagora. Drivers are advised to avoid taking trips due to the risk of accidents and emergencies. The Regional Directorate "Fire Safety and Civil Protection" in Kardzhali has received 37 emergency signals from yesterday afternoon to this morning. It took a rescue team nearly 5 hours to reach a woman in labor in the village of Orlitsa. The woman was transported to a health facility. Four more women in labor have been taken to hospital with the help of firefighters. Four patients on hemodialysis were also transported to the regional center. This morning the rescue team traveled to a diabetic who needed to be transported to the health center. More than half of the signals yesterday were for fallen trees, and the Fire Safety teams responded promptly. All stranded cars were towed. Snowdrifts 4 m high piled up in the town of Ardino. The situation there is the most critical throughout the region of Kardzhali. The continuous snowfall and the heavy snowdrifts have basically cut off the town from the outside world. Mobile cells in the area began to drop, threatening to entirely breakdown communications. The road between Momchilgrad and Krumovgrad is still closed, the road to Ardino is being cleaned, and it is closed, too. In the last day river levels in the country as a whole continued to rise. In some places in the upstream stretch of rivers there has been a decline and/or preservation of water levels: Danube basin - rivers: - Ogosta river with up to +15 cm; - Iskar river - in the middle stretch there is a decrease, and there is an increase of up to +9 cm in the downstream stretch; - Osam river with up to +36 cm; - Yantra river with +40 cm; - Rusenski Lom with up to +52 cm; Black Sea basin: - Vrana River at Nadarevo village – an increase by 54 cm; - Provadiyska river – an increase with up to 40 cm; - Aytoska river at the town of Kameno – a decrease of 2 cm; - Fakiyska river at Zidarovo village – an increase of 2 cm; - Ropotamo river at Veselie village – a decrease of 90 cm; East Aegean Sea basin – rivers: - Tundzha river with up to 16 cm; - Maritsa river – main river with up to +54 cm at Svilengrad; - Sazliyka river at Galabovo with 140 cm; - Vacha river at Zabral – an increase of 32 cm; - There is a drop in the water levels of the rest of the rivers.