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9.2 Housing Market

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9.2 Housing Market Public Disclosure Authorized BULGARIA Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Housing Sector Assessment F i n a l R e p o r t Prepared for Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works Public Disclosure Authorized By The World Bank June2017 HOUSING IN BULGARIA Organization of the Document To facilitate ease of reading – given the length and complexity of the full report – this document includes the following: - A 5-page Executive Summary, which highlights the key messages; - A 20-page Short Report, which presents in some level of detail the analysis, together with the main conclusions and recommendations; - A 150-page Main Report, which includes the full Situation Analysis, followed by Findings and Recommendations in detail. i HOUSING IN BULGARIA Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations IV Currency Equivalents VI Acknowledgements VII Executive Summary 1 Short Report 6 Main Report 27 SITUATION ANALYSIS 29 INTRODUCTION 31 1.1 Context 31 1.2 Relevance to the CPF and other World Bank projects 33 HOUSING AND URBANIZATION 35 2.1 Population Trends 35 2.2 Emigration 35 2.3 City typologies and trends 38 HOUSING STOCK AND QUALITY 41 3.1 Housing Stock 41 3.2 Ownership and Tenure 46 3.3 Housing Quality 50 PROGRAMS, INSTITUTIONS, LAWS, AND PROCEDURES 56 4.1 Current Approach to Housing 56 4.2 EU- and State-Funded Programs in the Housing Sector 56 4.3 Other State support for housing 61 4.4 Public Sector Stakeholders 69 4.5 Legal Framework 71 i HOUSING IN BULGARIA 4.6 Relevant Legislation and Processes for Housing 80 LOWER INCOME AND VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS 86 5.1 Poverty and Deprivation 86 5.2 Roma 90 HOUSING MARKET AND FINANCE 105 6.1 Market Dynamics 105 6.2 Rental Housing 110 6.3 Housing Finance 111 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY 114 7.1 Affordability and Housing Cost Overburden 114 7.2 Income 116 7.3 Housing Affordability: Existing Market 118 7.4 Potential options for lower income households 125 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 127 KEY FINDINGS 129 8.1 High vacancy rate, surplus and overcrowding 130 8.2 Poor quality of old stock, potential seismic risk 132 8.3 Inadequate housing for poor and vulnerable groups 133 8.4 Limited reach of national government initiatives 137 RECOMMENDATIONS 143 9.1 Housing Policy: Fundamental Principles 143 9.2 Housing market 144 9.3 Old Socialist era housing stock 152 9.4 Low income and vulnerable groups 154 9.5 Social housing 157 9.6 Legal and Institutional Framework 160 References 164 ii HOUSING IN BULGARIA List of figures Figure (i): Population growth from 2001-2013 Figure (ii): National housing surplus Figure (iii): Housing surplus as a percentage of district housing stock compared to district population as percentage of national population Figure (iv): Overcrowding rate by degree of urbanization Figure (v): Number of housing units by construction materials and period of construction Figure (vi): Bulgaria Real House Price Index Figure (vii): Annual average market prices of dwellings in district centers Figure (viii): Functional housing market: Roles of public and private sector stakeholders Figure 1.1: The Housing Value Chain Figure 2.1: Population growth from 2001-2013 Figure 2.2: Number of households by residence and census year Figure 2.3: Percentage change in district population from 2001 to 2011 Figure 2.4: Classification of Bulgarian cities according to growth/decline in population and economic activity Figure 2.5: Change in Population between 1990 and 2015 as percent of total change Figure 3.1: National housing surplus Figure 3.2: Housing surplus in selected districts and Sofia as percent of contemporary existing stock Figure3.3: Housing surplus as a percentage of district housing stock compared to district population as percentage of national population Figure 3.4: Distribution of population by tenure status, 2014 Figure 3.5. Overcrowding rate by degree of urbanization Figure 3.6: Number of housing units by construction materials and period of construction Figure 5.1: Poverty rates according to ethnic groups, 2015 Figure 5.2: Share of poor between ethnic group by economic activity, 2015 Figure 5.3: Population at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion by ethnic groups, 2015 Figure 5.4: Poverty rate and thresholds at the district level, 2015 Figure 6.1: Bulgaria Real House Price Index Figure 6.2: Percent change in HPI from Q1 2015 to Q1 2016 Figure 6.3: Annual average market prices of dwellings in district centers Figure 6.4: Breakdown of selling price Figure 6.5: Bulgaria residential building permits Figure 6.6: Deposit interest rate in Bulgaria Figure 7.1 (a): Affordability of unit purchase in Sofia Figure 7.1 (b): Upfront costs of purchase in Sofia in terms of months of income, by NSI income deciles Figure 7.2 (a): Affordability for old unit purchase in Blagoevgrad Figure 7.2 (b): Upfront costs of purchase in Blagoevgrad in terms of months of income Figure 7.3 (a): Affordability for old unit purchase in Montana Figure 7.3 (b): Upfront costs of purchase in Montana in terms of months of income Figure 7.4 (a): Affordability for old unit purchase in Pleven Figure 7.4 (b): Upfront costs of purchase in Pleven in terms of months of income Figure 7.5: Affordability of Rental Figure 9.1: Functional housing market: Roles of public and private sector stakeholders Figure 9.2: Housing co-operatives offer a midpoint between public and private housing List of tables Table (i): Vacant dwelling units in Bulgaria, 2011 Table 2.1: Population statistics by district Table 2.2: Population development over time in the four cases study cities Table 3.1: Dwelling units by district, 2011 Table 3.2: Vacant dwelling units in Bulgaria, 2011 Table 3.3: Vacancy rate at district level, 2011 i HOUSING IN BULGARIA Table 3.4: Discrepancy between dwelling unit surplus and vacant dwellings, 2011 Table 3.5: Newly built dwelling units by municipalities Table 3.6: Tenure status in % of the population according to income and type of household, 2015 Table 3.7: Dwelling units by mode of habitation, 2011 Table 3.8: Overcrowding rate (%) for tenants versus owners in Bulgaria and in EU-28, 2015 Table 3.9: Overcrowding rate (%) in Bulgaria and in EU-28, 2015 Table 4.1: Integrated actions for sustainable urban development – indicative amounts of ERDF and ESF support Table 4.2: Social welfare subsidies related to housing Table 4.3: Maximum income and coefficients for receiving monthly monetary subsidy and targeted assistance for heating Table 4.4: Construction and Building Permitting Process in Bulgaria Table 4.5: Illustrative cost and duration of permitting process for residential buildings by category Table 4.6: Stages in the purchase and sale of property Table 5.1: Material deprivation items by ethnic group, 2015 Table 5.2: Place of residence of the large ethnic communities (%) Table 5.3: Development indicators for Roma in EU-11 and Bulgaria Table 5.4: Development Indicators comparing Roma and non-Roma Table 5.5: Monthly expenditure (as a share of total expenditure) Table 5.6 Outstanding payments (share of people) Table 5.7 Sources of energy for Roma and non-Roma households Table 5.8: Building legalization and Tolerance Certificates Table 5.9: Dwelling ownership rate Table 6.1: Nominal House Price Indices for Bulgaria, Sofia, Varna, and Plovdiv Table 6.2: Ballpark house price range to different income segments in Sofia Table 6.3 Housing market trends/indicators (2006-2016) Table 6.4: Indicators for residential lending Table 7.1: Housing cost overburden threshold by income quintile Table 7.2: Housing Cost Overburden Rate Table 7.3: Housing Cost Overburden Rate in 2015 by Income Quintile Table 7.4: Monthly household income by decile (BGN), 2015 Table 7.5: Household income categorization used by developers in Sofia Table 7.6: Share of Household Expenditure Table 7.7: Square meter prices for old units (outside of Sofia) and new units Table 7.8: Income deciles (2015) and housing cost overburden thresholds Table 7.9 Square meters of old construction affordable to different decile groups with a standard mortgage loan Table 7.10: Maximum square meter price affordable for a 50 m2 old unit using a standard mortgage loan Table 7.11: Years of savings needed in order to self-finance a 50 m2 house in different cities Table 8.1: Vacant housing units in Bulgaria, 2011 Table 9.1: General framework for the roles of public and private counterparts in housing PPPs Table 9.2: Typical components in a housing PPP Table 9.3: Illustrative subsidy amounts for rental vouchers List of boxes Box 3.1 Disaster Risk in Bulgaria Box 3.2: Contents of a Technical Passport Box 4.1: Housing for disabled people in Sofia Box 5.1: Tensions between local authorities and the Roma Box 6.1: Student accommodations: Interviews Box 8.1: Requirements for proof of address Box 8.2: Blagoevgrad: National Program for Energy Efficiency ii HOUSING IN BULGARIA Box 9.1: Examples of housing databases in other countries and regions Box 9.2: Cooperative Housing and Housing Associations Box 9.3: Kazakhstan: Housing Allowance Program Box 9.4: Decent Homes Standard, UK List of plates Plate (i): Panel buildings Plate (ii): Roma settlement in Sofia Plate (iii): Residential buildings in Blagoevgrad retrofitted under NEEP Plate 3.1: Panel buildings Plate 4.1: Renovated panel buildings in Blagoevgrad Plate 4.2: Municipal housing in the Roma neighborhoods in Sofia Plate 4.3: Newly constructed Category 1 social housing in Dupnitsa Plate 5.1: Roma settlement in Fakulteta, Sofia Plate 5.2: Roma settlement in Filipovtsi, Sofia Plate 5.3: Roma settlement in Hristo Botev, Sofia Plate 5.4: Households in low
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