Newton Point to Porthcawl Point

Throughout: Hard rock outcrops continue to hold shoreline position locally.

2009 - 2029: In addition to the above there is risk of erosion of the relict dunes during storm events and reduction in protection to the hinterland. East-facing shoreline in Trecco Bay remains fixed by defences.

2029 - 2059: In addition to the above there is risk of foreshore narrowing and erosion to the developed former dunes. Failure of eastern promenade seawall and harbour structures may result in increased flood risk and erosion of infill to the former Inner Harbour.

2059 - 2109: In addition to the above there is increasing risk of erosion of the hinterland and flood risk due to sea level rise. Rhych Point may become an island at high tides.

Summerhouse Point to Nash Point

Throughout: Risk of 0m to 5m cliff erosion due to localised rock falls.

2009 - 2029: In addition to the above, there is negligible erosion risk along this frontage.

2029 - 2059: In addition to the above there is risk of Limpert to Summerhouse Point 0m to 10m total cliff erosion. Failure of the defences may lead to localised flooding of the 2009 - 2029: There is risk of very slow landward river valley. Defences at Tresilian Bay and St Donat's retreat of the cobble beaches via overwash during are predicted to fail leading to increased flood risk at storm events, such that there is negligble change Tresilian and risk of rapid erosion of promenade at St during this epoch. Donat's. 2029 - 2059: The cobble ridge is predict to continue Throughout: Risk of 0m to 10m erosion due to localised 2059 - 2109: In addition to the above there is risk of rolling slowly landward, with a risk of rates rock falls affecting small areas to the west of Breaksea 0m to 20m total cliff erosion. There is a risk of beach increasing due to sea level rise. Risk of overtopping Point. retreat and periodic flooding at Llantwit Major. may increase leading to periodic temporary breaching of the ridge. 2009 - 2029: In addition to the above, there is negligible erosion risk west of Breaksea Point. The defences at 2059 - 2109: There is risk of further beach roll-back Aberthaw are predicted to fix the shoreline position although the integrity of the structure is expected to during this epoch. Defences west of the Thaw may be maintained. The hinterland is at risk from begin to fail, and there is risk of erosion and flooding of periodic flooding during storm events. the hinterland, although erosion rates of the spoil to the east are uncertain. The cobble ridge would be expected to roll-back. Figure Number: and Carmarthen Bay Coastal Engineering Group Job Number: DCSSMP Point to St Anns Head SMP Review 2029 - 2059: In addition to the above there is risk of 0m Drawn By: JSM ¯ Assessment of NAI potential flood and erosion risk to 5m total cliff erosion west of Breaksea Point. Legend Continued erosion and flood risk is predicted west of the Thaw and as the river mouth defences fail. Defences Process units east of the river are expected to remain. Area currently at risk from flooding during the extreme flood event 2059 - 2109: In addition to the above there is risk of 0m 0.1% annual probability of occurrence (1 in 1000yr return period) to 10m total cliff erosion west of Breaksea Point. Flood and erosion risk is predicted to continue. Should defences east of the river fail, the lagoon is at risk from marine incursion. The river is not expected to revert to a natural condition during this epoch.

This map is based upon Ordnance Survey material with the permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office © Crown copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown copyright and may lead to 0 0.25 0.5 1 1.5 2 prosecution or civil proceedings. Carmarthenshire County Council; Licence No. 100023377, 2009 Kilometres