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Discussion Materials State of the markets June 10, 2020 Today’s presenters George Mattingly Managing Director 404-926-2672 [email protected] Kenny Kraft Gary Rzucidlo Executive Director Executive Director 404-926-2612 615-514-7983 [email protected] [email protected] Clark Benton Brian Bialek Vice President Executive Director 615-306-9386 615-780-4388 [email protected] [email protected] Howard Lamar Frank Pellegrino Member Member 615-742-6209 615-742-7947 [email protected] [email protected] 1 Agenda Page 1 Macroeconomic overview 2 2 Capital markets update 8 3 M&A market update 15 4 Appendix 19 As the COVID-19 outbreak continues, economists are downgrading GDP estimates for 2020, forecasting a particularly sharp decline in Q2 Denotes max Denotes min Reported Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 FY 2020 FY 2021 Median (4.8%) (34.2%) 15.0% 7.9% (5.7%) 3.9% vs. Median as of 05/15/20 (0.7%) 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% (0.1%) Top half median (75th percentile) (29.4%) 23.0% 10.5% (4.9%) 5.2% Bottom half median (25th percentile) (39.0%) 6.1% 5.0% (6.9%) 3.0% Mean (4.8%) (33.5%) 15.8% 8.9% (5.9%) 4.1% vs. Mean as of 05/15/20 (0.5%) 0.3% (0.1%) (0.1%) (0.0%) Top half mean (27.2%) 25.4% 13.8% (4.6%) 5.4% Bottom half mean (40.0%) 6.0% 3.9% (7.1%) 2.7% Select contributors Date JPMorgan Chase 05/29/20 (40.0%) 23.0% 10.0% (6.6%) 3.7% Barclays 05/29/20 (40.0%) 25.0% 8.0% (6.5%) 3.6% UBS 05/29/20 (35.2%) 2.0% 5.5% (7.6%) 3.1% 1 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 05/29/20 (30.0%) (1.0%) 25.0% (8.0%) 4.0% RBC Capital Markets 05/28/20 (28.0%) 37.0% 1.0% (2.5%) 5.2% Goldman Sachs Group 05/18/20 (39.0%) 29.0% 11.0% (6.5%) 6.1% Citigroup 05/15/20 (27.4%) 22.2% 9.9% (3.3%) 4.2% Deutsche Bank 05/15/20 (38.7%) 15.0% 6.5% (7.1%) 2.6% TD Bank 05/15/20 (41.4%) 25.1% 16.1% (6.4%) 6.6% Wells Fargo 05/15/20 (24.7%) 6.7% 4.4% (4.6%) 1.2% 2 Source: Bloomberg; Current data used includes estimates that economists have updated on or after 04/24/2020 (total of 63 contributors for quarterly data and 78 contributors for annual data); Note: 1 Quarterly estimates as of 05/15/2020 Tracking the US recovery High frequency US data tracker Spending recovery Index, with 0 = lowest observed value and 100 = highest observed value National credit and debit card spending trends – all transactions, spending Jan. 1, 2020 to present change 2020 vs 2019, 7 day smoothing 100 20% New business applications w/ IRS 90 Mortgage applications 10% 80 Apple maps driving usage 70 Rail traffic (consumer goods) 0% 60 Department store sales 50 (10)% Hotel occupancy rates 40 GPS workplace mobility (20)% 30 Petroleum products demand 20 (30)% Production (lumber, steel, 10 coal, rail, elec.) TSA checkpoint travelers 0 (40)% 2/19 3/10 3/30 4/19 5/9 5/29 6/18 3/7 3/17 3/27 4/6 4/16 4/26 5/6 5/16 Source: Internal chase data. JP MAM. May 25, 2020 US is seeing rapid rebounds in spite of worst pandemic in decades Source: WWPA, EIA, AISI, EEI, AAR, Redbook, Census Bureau, TSA.gov., Apple, Smith Travel, MBA, Google, JPMAM, May 29, 2020 3 Equity markets have rebounded sharply from March lows 2020 Equity market performance Near-term market insights Pre COVID-19 COVID-19 Recent Most acute phase of the Coronavirus volatility market impact recovery is over and S&P 500 has recovered off of March lows 2020 YTD 1/1 – 2/21 2/24 – 3/20 Since 3/23 However, the gap between momentum and value continues, S&P 500 (1%) +3% (29%) +43% with growth stocks outperforming cyclicals Key macro narratives driving S&P rebound and bolstered investor S&P 400 (7%) +1% (38%) +57% sentiment: Optimism around reopening economy Signs of economic trough Russell (10%) +1% (38%) +50% 2000 Significant fiscal / monetary stimulus globally Increased hopes of a near-term treatment and a medium-term vaccine Industrials1 +2% +2% (37%) +42% Beyond ongoing COVID-19 updates and reopening headlines, investors will be focused on: VIX (avg.) 33 18 14 253 Q2 earnings season U.S. / China tensions U.S. elections 4 Source: FactSet as of 6/5/20 1 Industrials refers to the S&P 500 Industrials 3 VIX as of 6/5/20 S&P 500: COVID-19 Recession, Great Recession, and Great Depression Stock market September 16, 1929 Index peak October 9, 2007 Day 0 = 100 February 19, 2020 94.3 6/5/2020 100 Great Recession 80.4 12/28/2010 80 Lehman 9/15/2008 COVID-19 Recession 3/23/2020 60 Great 11/13/1929 4/10/1930 Depression 40 3/9/2009 20.5 12/5/1932 20 6/1/1932 Before stock market peak After stock market peak 0 -400 -320 -240 -160 -80 0 80 160 240 320 400 480 560 640 720 800 Market days 5 Source: Factset as of 6/5/2020 Across industries, those companies most affected by current market uncertainty have withdrawn guidance and taken defensive measures Note: Dividend decreases, buyback suspensions, and credit downgrades are only for firms that have withdrawn guidance Corporate actions for firms that have withdrawn guidance in 2020 Guidance suspensions Shareholder distributions Dividend Buyback % change from S&P peak 1 Count % of total constituents Credit downgrades 3 decreases 2 suspensions S&P 500 (5.7%) 218 43.6% 31 47 38 Consumer Discretionary 0.2% 45 71.4% 14 19 18 Industrials (11.0%) 43 62.3% 5 8 9 Information Technology (1.1%) 29 41.4% 1 5 0 Health Care (0.8%) 27 44.3% 2 5 1 Consumer Staples (6.8%) 17 51.5% 2 5 2 Real Estate (10.3%) 17 54.8% 2 0 0 Materials (1.3%) 15 51.7% 1 0 4 Financials (15.7%) 10 15.2% 0 3 1 Communication Services (4.0%) 9 40.9% 0 1 1 Energy (18.3%) 5 17.9% 4 1 2 Utilities (13.0%) 1 3.6% 0 0 0 In sectors where guidance withdrawal has been more prominent, firms have also taken actions to preserve liquidity 6 Source: J.P. Morgan Corporate Finance Advisory, Bloomberg, FactSet, Moody’s, S&P Capital IQ; Data as of Jun-05, 2020 Note: Sample set consists of firms in the S&P 500 as of 1/1/2020 that have withdrawn guidance in 2020; 1 % change from Feb-19, 2020 to Jun-05, 2020; 2 Includes both dividend cuts and dividend eliminations; 3 Includes corporate rating downgrades at Moody’s and/or S&P Investor sentiment will depend on a number of critical events in the coming weeks and months Reopening the economy Any perspective from companies in affected industries such as airlines and brick-and-mortar retail that indicate reopening patterns for the economy Airlines such as DAL, LUV and UAL have reported mild improvements in bookings/cancellations, although revenue is still being guided down COVID-19 statistics and Vaccine developments Given incubation period, might not see an increase in cases/hospitalizations right away Data released on a potential vaccine has been low, but investors are eager for details in the coming weeks and months U.S. / China trade The relationship between the U.S. and China will most likely remain tense, with the market focused on any new developments It is unlikely meaningful policy action, such as repealing the ‘phase one’ trade agreement, will take place before the election 5th stimulus bill It is likely that Trump will review a 5th stimulus bill, but the process will not be as smooth as March and April The Democrats’ $3T proposal is “DOA” with Republicans – the final price tag will most likely be half that amount The Federal Reserve While the Fed has helped stabilize credit markets, Powell hopes the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (“junk bond facility”) is enough to keep the markets afloat The Fed most likely will not launch any incremental liquidity facilities, but they might look to formalize a purchase schedule in coming quarters U.S. elections As November approaches, investor attention will most likely switch to the upcoming U.S. election Polls currently favor Biden, but given 11/3 is further away, investors are discounting the polls for now 7 Agenda Page 1 Macroeconomic overview 2 2 Capital markets update 8 3 M&A market update 15 4 Appendix 19 Capital raising activity by U.S. public companies since March 2020 Any capital raise since March 2020 Of companies that raised capital since March 2020 Total Count Percentage Debt 1 Equity-like 2 Both constituents Russell 3000 2,944 500 17% 66% 37% 3% Russell 1000 983 339 34% 88% 16% 4% Russell 2000 1,961 161 8% 20% 80% 1% Russell 1000 Growth 526 175 33% 84% 22% 6% Russell 1000 Value 754 269 36% 90% 14% 4% S&P 500 500 250 50% 96% 7% 3% NASDAQ 100 100 43 43% 91% 14% 5% Large cap companies have accessed the markets more frequently and relied on the debt markets more so than growth, mid-cap, and small-cap companies 8 Source: J.P.
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