population projections. PRODUCED FOR THE METROPOLITAN REGION BOARD & ITS MEMBER MUNICIPALITIES

December 2018

by: rennie intelligence table of contents.

3 PROJECT OVERVIEW

5 MODEL OUTPUT

rennie intelligence.

Our rennie intelligence division empowers individuals, organizations and institutions with trusted market insights. We are a diverse team of real estate experts with experience in urban land economics, community planning, demographics and sales.

Data-driven by nature, we research and compile the latest metrics, observe trends as they emerge and create informed forecasts. Our resources support our Advisors, our clients and the public. Through speaking engagements, consulting and regular publications, we help them form sound, strategic plans that help our clients achieve their goals. CALGARY METROPOLITAN REGION BOARD AREA PROJECTIONS

01. OVERVIEW The regional projection was presented as both total population and population described by single years of SCOPE OF WORK age and sex on an annual basis from 2017 to 2076. The Calgary Metropolitan Region Board (“CMRB”) engaged rennie to produce a long-term projection of Based on both previous work completed by Urban population (to the year 2076) for the CMRB area as Futures for the Calgary Regional Partnership and a whole, as well as an allocation of future regional specific input from staff at each of the CMRB’s population to each of the CMRB’s ten member member municipalities, the regional projection of municipalities. These municipalities include Airdrie, total population was then allocated to each of its ten Calgary, , Cochrane, , , municipalities using a shift-share approach. Strathmore, Foothills, Rocky View, and part of Wheatland County. The output from this step of the process was total population presented on an annual basis for each The regional projection was developed within a cohort municipality from 2017 to 2076. survival framework, whereby trends in age-specific fertility, age- and sex-specific mortality, and age- and DATA SOURCES sex-specific migration (to and from other locations in A range of data sources were utilized in the development , other parts of , and other countries) of the population projections, including Statistics were considered along with the aging of the region’s Canada’s Demographic Estimates Compendium, the existing population. federal census (from 1986 through 2016), Alberta Treasury Board population projections, Alberta Vital It is worth noting that the starting point for the CMRB- Statistics, and various municipal/civic censuses. Specific wide projection was a projection of Canada’s population feedback was also provided by municipal planning staff as a whole, followed by a formal outlook for Alberta’s on the initial allocations. population. This geographically-nested modelling framework was utilized to explicitly acknowledge the ADDITIONAL NOTES role that immigration plays in shaping the national population, as well as the role that both immigration 1. The regional estimates of population from Statistics and interprovincial migration play in shaping the Canada’s Demographic Estimates Compendium provincial population. For Canada as a whole this publication are adjusted for net census undercoverage. includes giving consideration to the impacts of the Any Census of population—be it federal, regional, federal government’s revised immigration targets, or municipal—invariably misses some people (while which, at the time of the model’s development, planned actually double-counting others). This is most often for upwards of 340,000 immigrants annually by 2020. due to people changing residences around the time of (This target has subsequently be updated to include Census enumeration, though other factors come into 350,000 immigrants in 2021, but that information was play as well. not timely enough to formally incorporate into these projections.) Given this, any population estimate derived from a census of population underestimates, on a net basis, The regional outlook was predicated on annual the true number of people living within a particular historical estimates from from 1986 to jurisdiction (it also slightly mis-represents the true 2017 for total population and from 1986/87 to 2016/17 underlying age composition of the population). for the individual components of demographic change. Statistics Canada attempts to correct for this after releasing the latest census data by producing what

DECEMBER 2018 — PAGE 3 CALGARY METROPOLITAN REGION BOARD AREA PROJECTIONS

are referred to as undercoverage-adjusted population annexations, infrastructure, or other local planning estimates. These estimates tend to be in the range considerations. Instead, they are collectively intended of 2-5% higher than the underlying census counts to be used as a high-level, holistic reference tool that depending on the Census Division or Province/ reflects the future directions of change envisioned Territory being considered. by and for each municipality, recognizing that over a projection horizon that stretches to 2076 there exists In the case of the CMRB area, population under- much uncertainty. coverage in 2016 has been estimated at 4.8%. 4. The regional population projection (and hence the 2. The backward- and forward-looking under-coverage- municipal allocations) should be considered a baseline adjusted regional population estimates serve as the scenario, reflecting a long-run outlook that will, “control total” to which the historical and future in reality, see growth oscillate around the outlook estimates for the region’s member municipalities are provided herein. In other words, growth in the region forced to aggregate. and its municipalities will continue to be cyclical, as it has been in the past, with periods of faster growth being In developing historical population estimates that were preceded and followed by periods of slower growth. The consistent between the regional and municipal levels, numbers presented herein should be viewed as reflecting historical federal census estimates from 1986 to 2016, an “averaging-out” of those growth cycles. combined with civic census data (where available) for the region’s member municipalities, were used to develop a percentage distribution of population within the CMRB area.

This distribution, which sums to 100% for the 10 member municipalities, was then applied to the historical undercoverage-adjusted regional estimates produced by Statistics Canada. This, in turn, yielded implied undercoverage-adjusted municipal population estimates. Note that while these undercoverage- adjusted estimates will not precisely match historical census counts, they are entirely consistent with them.

For example, the City of Calgary represented 84.5% of the CMRB’s total population in 2016 as per the federal census, and it represents 84.5% of the undercoverage- adjusted regional total as per Statistics Canada’s recent estimate for the same year.

3. The forward-looking municipal-level population estimates are allocations. Indeed, they are not comprehensive projections that explicitly reflect each municipality’s existing demography (apart from the overall size of the population) or local economic conditions, and as such they should not be exclusively relied upon to make decisions relating to future

DECEMBER 2018 — PAGE 4 CALGARY METROPOLITAN REGION BOARD AREA PROJECTIONS

02.2018 Regional Projection and Municipal Allocation MODEL OUTPUT

TOTAL POPULATION 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2018 2023 2028 Airdrie 11,603 13,747 16,373 20,942 30,121 44,285 64,536 66,889 74,556 84,828 Calgary 649,003 722,113 788,691 903,113 1,029,064 1,141,155 1,298,711 1,342,861 1,456,431 1,574,641 Chestermere 697 1,044 1,961 3,509 9,961 15,424 20,840 21,619 24,615 28,703 Cochrane 4,594 5,937 7,624 12,126 14,329 18,290 27,091 28,152 31,683 36,109 High River 5,524 6,767 7,557 9,603 11,163 13,442 14,237 14,825 16,907 19,464 Okotoks 5,749 7,370 8,738 11,987 17,854 25,500 30,266 31,439 35,266 39,918 Strathmore 3,576 4,265 5,422 7,830 10,648 12,802 14,415 14,982 16,867 19,221 Foothills 10,771 11,675 14,083 17,228 20,556 22,119 23,858 24,683 26,909 29,377 Rocky View 19,819 20,869 23,951 31,537 35,588 37,938 41,302 42,729 46,570 50,814 Wheatland 663 641 704 827 868 880 940 973 1,065 1,172 Total CMRB Area 712,000 794,428 875,104 1,018,702 1,180,152 1,331,836 1,536,197 1,589,152 1,730,870 1,884,247

TOTAL POPULATION 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063 2068 2073 2076 Airdrie 96,277 108,105 119,670 130,612 140,725 149,807 157,709 164,318 169,481 171,931 Calgary 1,694,822 1,812,147 1,924,545 2,029,430 2,124,804 2,209,260 2,282,202 2,343,086 2,391,190 2,414,306 Chestermere 33,720 39,285 44,660 49,632 54,147 58,133 61,575 64,438 66,691 67,766 Cochrane 40,785 45,409 49,752 53,715 57,277 60,394 63,065 65,271 66,995 67,813 High River 22,156 24,817 27,318 29,596 31,630 33,396 34,898 36,131 37,089 37,542 Okotoks 44,798 49,666 54,312 58,653 62,658 66,229 69,329 71,988 74,138 75,183 Strathmore 22,008 24,900 27,631 30,123 32,374 34,352 36,055 37,467 38,574 39,101 Foothills 31,951 34,498 36,891 39,082 41,103 42,920 44,514 45,859 46,930 47,446 Rocky View 55,223 59,584 63,775 67,706 71,439 74,878 77,960 80,608 82,750 83,794 Wheatland 1,283 1,393 1,496 1,590 1,671 1,738 1,793 1,836 1,869 1,884 Total CMRB Area 2,043,022 2,199,804 2,350,050 2,490,138 2,617,827 2,731,106 2,829,100 2,911,001 2,975,707 3,006,767

DECEMBER 2018 — PAGE 5 CALGARY METROPOLITAN REGION BOARD AREA PROJECTIONS

Components of Population Change, Calgary Metro. Region Board Area 1986 - 2075 25,000

20,000

15,000 NET INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

10,000 7,177 5,000 NET INTRAPROV. MIGRATION 2,110 0 NATURAL INCREASE -5,000 NET INTERPROV. MIGRATION -6,540 -10,000

-15,000 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064 2066 2068 2070 2072 2074

Total Population, Calgary Metro Region Board Area

1986 - 2076 3,006,767 2,687,571

2,137,744

1,562,741

1,180,152 875,104 712,000 ANNUAL RATE 3.5% OF CHANGE 2.4% 2.1% 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064 2066 2068 2070 2072 2074 2076

DECEMBER 2018 — PAGE 6 CALGARY METROPOLITAN REGION BOARD AREA PROJECTIONS

Total Population, Airdrie

2016 - 2076 171,931 161,842 146,308

126,332

103,382

80,494 64,536 2.7% 2.4% 1.8% 1.8% ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064 2066 2068 2070 2072 2074 2076

Total Population, Calgary 2016 - 2076 2,414,306 2,320,211 2,176,819 1,988,589 1,765,763 1,526,819 1,298,711

1.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.1% ANNUAL RATE 0.8% OF CHANGE 0.5% 0.3% 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064 2066 2068 2070 2072 2074 2076

DECEMBER 2018 — PAGE 7 CALGARY METROPOLITAN REGION BOARD AREA PROJECTIONS

Total Population, Chestermere 2016 - 2076 67,766 63,364 56,602

47,698

37,054 3.1% 3.1% 26,942 20,840 2.1% 1.7% ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064 2066 2068 2070 2072 2074 2076

Total Population, Cochrane 2016 - 2076 67,813 64,445 59,200 52,179

43,585

34,275 27,091 2.7% 2.2% 1.9% ANNUAL RATE 1.5% OF CHANGE 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064 2066 2068 2070 2072 2074 2076

DECEMBER 2018 — PAGE 8 CALGARY METROPOLITAN REGION BOARD AREA PROJECTIONS

Total Population, Foothills 47,446 2016 - 2076 45,352 42,219 38,228 33,494

28,367 23,858

1.7% 1.8% 1.6% ANNUAL RATE 1.2% 0.9% OF CHANGE 0.6% 0.3% 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064 2066 2068 2070 2072 2074 2076

Total Population, High River 37,542 2016 - 2076 35,671 32,721

28,714

23,768

18,408

14,237 2.9% 2.3% 2.0% 1.6% ANNUAL RATE 1.1% OF CHANGE 0.7% 0.4% 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064 2066 2068 2070 2072 2074 2076

DECEMBER 2018 — PAGE 9 CALGARY METROPOLITAN REGION BOARD AREA PROJECTIONS

Total Population, Okotoks 75,183 2016 - 2076 70,980 64,856 56,956

47,739

37,999 30,266 2.6% 2.1% 1.9% ANNUAL RATE 1.5% OF CHANGE 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064 2066 2068 2070 2072 2074 2076

Total Population, Rocky View 83,794 2016 - 2076 79,605 73,541 66,160 57,856 49,078 41,302

1.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% ANNUAL RATE 0.9% OF CHANGE 0.7% 0.4% 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064 2066 2068 2070 2072 2074 2076

DECEMBER 2018 — PAGE 10 CALGARY METROPOLITAN REGION BOARD AREA PROJECTIONS

Total Population, Strathmore 2016 - 2076 39,101 36,937 33,593 29,156

23,754

18,220

14,415 2.6% 2.5%

1.9% 1.7% ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064 2066 2068 2070 2072 2074 2076

Total Population, Wheatland (CMRB part) 1,884 1,820 2016 - 2076 1,712 1,554

1,349

1,128 940

1.9% 1.8% 1.7% ANNUAL RATE 1.2% OF CHANGE 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064 2066 2068 2070 2072 2074 2076

DECEMBER 2018 — PAGE 11 CALGARY METROPOLITAN REGION BOARD AREA PROJECTIONS

REPRODUCTION OF THIS REPORT IN WHOLE OR IN PART WITHOUT THE PERMISSION OF THE CALGARY METROPOLITAN REGION BOARD IS PROHIBITED. BRIEF EXTRACTS FOR REVIEW PURPOSES MAY BE MADE WITH DUE ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF THE SOURCE. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT HAS BEEN COMPILED FROM SOURCES DECEMBER 2018 — PAGE 12 BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION IS NOT GUARANTEED. E&OE