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Gentrification and Racial Transformation in Cincinnati, 2000-2016

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Gentrification and Racial Transformation in Cincinnati, 2000-2016 Gentrification and Racial Transformation in Cincinnati, 2000-2016. A thesis submitted to the Graduate School of the University of Cincinnati in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Community Planning In the School of Planning of the College of Design, Architecture, Art, and Planning by Evelyn D. Ravuri July 2019 Committee Chair: L. Hollstein, Ph.D. Committee Member: C. Auffrey, Ph.D. i Abstract: Gentrification, first noticed in the largest cities of the United States in the 1960s, had diffused down the urban hierarchy by the 21st century. This new use of the urban landscape ushers in concerns over how revitalization of formerly disinvested areas of the cities and the consequent in-migration of higher-income populations has affected low-income populations. Cincinnati is one medium-sized city that has been affected by gentrification and the displacement of its low-income, largely African-American population. Using Hammel and Wyly’s (1996) gentrification criteria, it was determined that 26 census tracts in the City of Cincinnati experienced gentrification between 2000 and 2016. Fifteen of those tracts experienced displacement of the African-American population during this time. Logistic regression revealed that a gentrifying tract was 4.6 times more likely to experience displacement than a non- gentrifying tract between 2000 and 2016 indicating a possible cause and effect relationship. By using triangulation of three data sources: U.S. census data, Google Streetview imagery, and interviews with members of Community Development Corporations in four gentrifying neighborhoods in Cincinnati, this thesis explored possible reasons why two of these census tracts experienced displacement of African-American population and two did not. Tracts 55 (Madisonville) and 74 (Northside) were recipients of major economic investments in their business districts by public and private corporations after 2009. It is argued that substantial economic investment in these two formerly disinvested neighborhoods caused substantial increases in median housing values and median rent and led to displacement of lower-income individuals, many of whom were African-American. Google Streetview imagery examined change in the built environment in these two tracts between 2007 and 2014/16 and confirmed that these changes corresponded with gentrification. Conversely, Tract 84 (College Hill) did not experience displacement nor did its built environment change much between 2010 and 2016. Tract 84, unlike Tracts 55 and 74, had a substantial supply of high-quality housing stock at affordable prices which attracted higher-income in-migrants between 2000 and 2010. It appears that two separate housing markets operating in Tract 84 keep in-migrants from competing for the same housing opportunities as the lower- ii income African-American population. Tract 19 (Walnut Hills) was further along in the gentrification process in 2000 than its counterparts in the other three tracts. Displacement of African-American population occurred between 2000 and 2010 as median housing values/median rents increased, but between 2010 and 2016, displacement was curtailed. Most of the post- 2010 economic investment was focused on Walnut Hill’s business district and the renovation of vacant buildings for housing and did not result in displacement between 2000 and 2010. Interviews with CDC members revealed that the most poignant issue in their neighborhoods was the provision of affordable housing. Going forward, Cincinnati should rethink its public transportation system. All four neighborhoods were noted for accessibility to downtown and focusing on mixed-use development and densification along these nodes could lead to racially and socio-economically well- integrated neighborhoods in the City of Cincinnati and benefit all residents. iii Acknowledgements: The attainment of the MCP at the University of Cincinnati and the writing of this thesis could not have been accomplished without the support of my loving wife Ann Grimm. I thank her for her constant encouragement in this journey. Nor could I have endured the endless hours of work involved in this thesis without my cats: Athena and Bear (no longer with us) and Zephyr, Polaris, Pleiades, Sundae and Gelato. I would like to thank Dr. Leah Hollstein for her invaluable guidance on the thesis. Her thoughtful criticisms allowed me to produce a better thesis. Dr. Hollstein was always helpful in ensuring that I did not go down the wrong track. I would also like to thank Dr. Chris Auffrey for his comments on this thesis. None of this work could have been possible without Saginaw Valley State University which provided me with the year-long sabbatical to complete the course work for the MCP and provided a portion of the financial support for this. I would also like to thank my mother and father for their constant support. Mine has been a long educational journey- starting in Fall 1983 and hopefully ending in Summer 2019, but my parents have always encouraged me. Thank you to my sisters Sandy and Lori for their invaluable sister- friendship. A special thanks goes to nephew Evan whom I love like a son. I would also like to thank Ann’s family (Bob, Mary, Chris, Jill, Grayson, Sullivan, Terri, Chris C. and Tess) for their support through this process. Lastly, thank you to the sixteen CDC members from College Hill, Madisonville, Northside and Walnut Hills who provided their insight on the gentrification process in their respective neighborhoods. iv Contents Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 1 Overview of the Study Area: ............................................................................................................. 4 Hypotheses: ........................................................................................................................................ 5 Methods: ............................................................................................................................................ 6 Justification for Study: ...................................................................................................................... 6 Chapter 2 LITERATURE REVIEW: ................................................................................................... 7 Introduction: ...................................................................................................................................... 7 Neighborhood Change: ...................................................................................................................... 7 Theories of Gentrification: .............................................................................................................. 11 Demand Side:................................................................................................................................ 12 Supply Side: .................................................................................................................................. 13 Variations on Demand Side and Supply Side Gentrification Theories: ......................................... 14 Stages of Gentrification: .................................................................................................................. 18 Recessions and Gentrification: ........................................................................................................ 20 Gentrification and Displacement: ................................................................................................... 24 Conclusion: ...................................................................................................................................... 30 Chapter 3 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................ 32 Introduction: .................................................................................................................................... 32 Defining Gentrification: .................................................................................................................. 34 Measuring Gentrification: ............................................................................................................... 34 Measuring Displacement/Lack of Displacement: ........................................................................... 37 Hypotheses: ...................................................................................................................................... 38 Statistical Methodology: .................................................................................................................. 39 Qualitative Methodology: ................................................................................................................ 40 Google Maps: ................................................................................................................................... 42 A Deeper Analysis Using Google Streetview: .................................................................................... 43 A Walk-Through the application of Hwang’s (2015) Gentrification Index: .............................. 49 Conclusion: ...................................................................................................................................... 52 Chapter 4 DETERMINATION OF GENTRIFICATION AND DISPLACEMENT IN CINCINNATI, 2000-2016. ..................................................................................................................
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