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Six Years of the Revolution of Dignity: What Has Changed?

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Six Years of the Revolution of Dignity: What Has Changed? REPORT Six years of the Revolution of Dignity: what has changed? Vladimir Dubrovskiy Kálmán Mizsei Kateryna Ivashchenko-Stadnik Mychailo Wynnyckij KYIV, UKRAINE 2020 Report "Six years of the Revolution of Dignity: what has changed?" Authors: Vladimir Dubrovskiy Kálmán Mizsei Kateryna Ivashchenko-Stadnik Mychailo Wynnyckij Prepared by CASE Ukraine funded by the International Renaissance Foundation Authors Vladimir Dubrovskiy, Senior Economist at CASE Ukraine Vladimir Dubrovskiy is a Senior Economist at CASE Ukraine, and the Nestor Group’s member. The main areas of his interest are macroeconomics, political and institu- tional economics, economic reforms, governance, corruption and interdisciplinary topics. He has worked with the World Bank, UNDP, GDN, OECD, WEF, Transparency International, Chatham House, and within the international programs of technical aid to the governments of Ukraine, Moldova, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. He is an author of a number of research papers and books on the issues of trans- formation in Ukraine, also participated in drafting of several government and po- litical programs. Vladimir’s most important research works concern the issues of corruption, privatization, economic reforms, small and medium size business, deregulation, etc. At the end of 2017 he published a book named ″From Dignity to Prosperity: How to Build an Economic Miracle on the Ukrainian Soil″ M.Sc. in Theoretical Physics, Vladimir has 7-years experience in managing private sector business operations in various positions, up to the CEO of a small firm. Then he worked in consulting and business training, business software develop- ment, and economic policy analysis at the media. Since 1997 he worked at the HIID/CASE project on macroeconomic reform in Ukraine, and later became affili- ated with CASE-Ukraine. Kálmán Mizsei, Former Head of the European Union Advisory Mission on Civilian Security Sector Reform of Ukraine1 Dr. Kálmán Mizsei was the Head of Mission for the European Union Advisory Mis- sion on Civilian Security Sector Reform in Ukraine in 2014–15. In 2001–6 he was the UNDP Regional Director for Europe and the CIS. In this capacity he initiated and tutored the work of the Blue Ribbon Commission for Ukraine, an international expert group that in 2004 advised the incoming president. He served as the EU Special representative for Moldova in 2007-11, negotiating over the Transnistrian frozen conflict and contributing to the solving of the Moldovan political crisis in 2009. Currently he is European Union High Level Adviser to the Moldovan Govern- ment on Confidence Building. Earlier he served as the Chairman of the Making the Most of EU Funds for Roma Integration at the Open Society Foundations, support- ing George Soros’ effort for Roma integration in Central and South Eastern Europe. From 2007 to 2015 he was also adjunct/visiting professor at the Central European University in Budapest In 1997–2001 he served as regional Investment Director of AIG in Central and Eastern Europe. In 1995–1997 he was the Chairman of the Hungarian Eximbank as well as of the Hungarian Export Insurance Company. Mr. Mizsei holds a PhD in Economics from the Budapest University of Economics and advised numerous governments in Central and Eastern Europe on their eco- nomic transition. 1 Kálmán Mizsei is currently European Union High Level Adviser to the Government of the Republic of Moldova. He finished his contribution to the text before taking up his current position. 3 Authors Kateryna Ivashchenko-Stadnik, Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Dr. Kateryna Ivashchenko-Stadnik is a Historian and Sociologist. In the 2000s she worked as a Social Policy Advisor in UNDP, Ukraine. Since 2004, as a Senior Re- search Fellow of the Department of Methodology and Methods of Social Research (Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences), she has been participat- ing in the national research team conducting long-term national surveys to trace the trends of social development in Ukraine. Kateryna is also a Member of the Migration Advisory Board of the National Institute of Strategic Studies. Current academic interests include forced displacement and societal change during con- flicts. Among recent publications, see: Ivashchenko-Stadnik,K What’s wrong with the Donbas? The challenges of integration before, during, and after the war. In: A. Veira Ramos, T. Lubiva (eds) Ukraine inTransformation: from Soviet Republic to European Society. London: Palgrave, 2020, pp. 229–260). Mychailo Wynnyckij, Associate Professor at the National University "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy" and Lviv Business School of Ukrainian Catholic University. He has also served as Advisor to Ukraine’s Minister of Education and Science and in 2019 was appointed Head of the Secretariat of Ukraine’s National Agency for Higher Education Quality Assurance. Mychailo was awarded a PhD in Economic Sociology in 2003 from the University of Cambridge (U.K.). In 2008-2013 he served as Director of the Doctoral School at Kyiv-Mohyla Academy where he oversaw a project aimed at reforming the tradi- tional Ukrainian "aspirantura" system into a European-styled Doctorate. These ac- tivities led to his direct involvement in educational reform, and in Ukrainian politics more generally. During the Revolution of Dignity, Mychailo was a regular commen- tator for English-language media outlets, and provided analysis on current events in his "Thoughts from Kyiv" blog. Originally from Canada, he has lived permanently in Kyiv with his wife and four children since 2003. Mychailo’s book "Ukraine’s Maidan, Russia’s War: A Chronicle and Analysis of the Revolution of Dignity" was published by Ibidem Verlag in April 2019. 4 Table of content Introduction 8 Theoretical inference: The System’s logic 9 Post-colonial context and the nation-building 13 The role of the revolution(s) 15 Section 1. Historical inference: Ukraine’s transition from the LAO vs OAO perspective 18 Section 2. Rule-of-law vs discretionary justice 28 Lack of genuine change strategy 29 Partial reforms 31 Judiciary – interface with public vs prosecutor 33 Anti-corruption institutions 36 Prosecution – a core institution for conserving the existing patronal system 37 State Bureau of Investigations 40 Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) 40 Police 41 Section 3. The Economy: Rent seeking versus profit seeking; Eurasia versus Europe; Post-industrial versus Industrial 43 Rent seeking versus profit seeking 43 Socioeconomic shifts 46 Section 4. Political institutions: vertical of power vs. checks and balances and the change in the elites 51 Is a new sustainable ″single pyramid″ possible? 53 Recent developments 57 The elite’s change 59 Section 5. Sociological perspective: new cleavages, identity shifts and the rise of ″creative class″ 61 Where does Ukraine stand in transition from LAO to OAO 64 Ukraine’s identity shifts: changes in geo-political attitudes and hierarchy of self-identifications 66 The changes in social stratification and main cleavages on the way to OAO: the emergence of the urban creative class 71 Post-revolutionary cleavages in attitudes: is Ukrainian society increasingly polarizing, and is it a risk for OAO? 75 Potential for evolutionary development 78 Conclusions and discussions 82 Recommendations 91 5 Abbreviations ABCA – the Annual Business Cost Assessment ACC – Anti-Corruption Court ATO – AntiTerrorist Operation BPP – Block Petro Poroshenko CIPE – Center for International Private Enterprise CIS – The Commonwealth of Independent States CoE – Council of Europe DCFTA – The Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement EBRD – The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ESS – European Social Survey EU – European Union EUAM – The European Union Advisory Mission FDIs – Foreign Direct Investments GDN – Global Research Network GDP – Gross Domestic Product HQCJ – High Qualification Commission of Judges of Ukraine ICT – Information and Communication Technology IER – the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting IFIs – international financial institutions IMF – International Monetary Fund IT – Informational Technology KGB – Committee for State Security LAO – limited access order MBA – The Master of Business Administration MPs – Members of Parliament NABU – National Anti--corruption Bureau of Ukraine NAS, NASU – National Academy of Science of Ukraine NATO – The North Atlantic Treaty Organization NGO – Non-governmental organizations NKVD – The People's Commissariat for Internal Affairs OAO – open access order PF – the Peoples’ Front party PGO – Prosecutor General’s Office 6 PIC – Public Integrity Council PIT – Personal Income Tax PM – Prime Minister PPO – Public Prosecutor Office PR – public relations PROMETHEUS – online lectures https://prometheus.org.ua/ PhD – Doctor of Philosophy RoL – Rule-of-Law RPR – Reanimation Package of Reforms R&D – Research and development SAP – Special Anti-Corruption Prosecution (bureau) SBI – State Bureau of Investigations SBU – Security Service of Ukraine SMEs – Small and medium-sized enterprises SME Platform – Small and medium-sized enterprises Platform SOEs – State owned enterprises SUP – the Union of Ukrainian Entrepreneurs SWP – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politi UkrSSR – Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic URB – Ukrainian Council of Business US – United States USSR – the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WGI – Worldwide Governance Indicators WVS – World Values Survey WW2 – Second World War 7 Introduction The aim of this paper is to establish whether irreversible (or
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