RECENT DEVELOPMENT ON CONGESTION IN OUR

Adewoye S. Olabode

Department of Mathematics,

Yaba College of Technology,

Yaba, Lagos.

[email protected]

ABSTRACT

Large cities in developing countries have problems with resulting in massive delays, increased fuel wastage, monetary losses. Traffic congestion is one of the major contributors to with adverse effect on our climate, health and the economy. The object of the work is to investigate causes of traffic congestion in some selected cities, proffer solutions to the problem and report the current traffic situation in our cities. Some of the problems identified are: Lack of plans, poor maintenance, design, project management, poor traffic management around areas identified as hotspots, impunity associated with some traffic offenders and lack of political will to make change, etc. We divide our solutions into two, namely immediate and future solution. These solutions are expected to reduce traffic congestion in our cities.

1. INTRODUCTION

Large cities in developing countries have problems with traffic congestion resulting in massive delays, increased fuel wastage, monetary losses. Traffic congestion is a condition that occurs on the road networks as use increases, and is characterized by slower speeds, longer trip times, and increased vehicular queuing. When traffic demand on the road is great enough then the interaction between vehicles slows down the speed, this results in some congestion. As demand approaches the intersections along the road or reaches full capacity of a road, extreme traffic congestion sets in. When this occurs, vehicles are fully stopped for periods of time. Traffic congestion (Go- Slow or Traffic- Jam) can lead to drivers becoming frustrated and engaging in road rage. The Department for Transport[15] sees growing congestion as one of the most serious transport problems facing the UK. In 2006, Rod Eddington published a UK government-sponsored report into the future of Britain’s transport infrastructure.. The Eddington Transport Study[18] set out the case for action to improve road and rail networks, as a "crucial enabler of sustained productivity and competitiveness". Eddington has estimated that congestion may cost the economy of England £22 billion a year in lost time by 2025. He warned that were in serious danger of becoming so congested that the economy would suffer. At the launch of the report Eddington told journalists and transport industry representatives introducing to encourage drivers to drive less was an "economic no-brainer". There was, he said "no attractive alternative". It would allegedly cut congestion by half by 2025, and bring benefits to the British economy totaling £28 billion a year. In recent years, the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality has made huge investments on intelligent transportation and public transportation. . Despite that, traffic is a significant problem in Istanbul. Istanbul has chosen the second most congested and the most sudden-stopping traffic in the world. Travel times in Turkey’s largest take on average 55 percent longer that they should, even in relatively less busy hours. According to a survey by Waze[17], traffic congestion in is called the "worst" in the world, after Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, and Jakarta. It is worsened by violations of traffic laws, like illegal parking, loading and unloading, beating the red light, and wrong – way driving. Traffic congestion in Metro Manila is caused by the large number of registered vehicles, lack of roads, and overpopulation, especially on Manila, Pateros and Caloocan. Traffic caused losses of ₱137,500,000,000 on the economy in 2011, and un-built roads and railway projects also causes worsening congestion. Indonesia, particularly its capital city Jakarta, is experiencing daily congestion in both major highways and toll roads. The traffic congestion follows a repeatable pattern during the day, and locals accept it as daily routine. The city is actively combating this issue with various projects, including the expansion of the Transjakarta bus-way system, a proposed monorail project, and an underground train system. However, the Transjakarta system, the longest bus-way system in the world, is plagued with an insufficient number of buses to serve the long routes of some of its corridors.

2. OPERATIONAL RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND CONGESTION MODELS Operational research is the applications of modern methods on complex problems arising in the direction and management of large systems of men, machines, materials and money industry, business and defense. The distinctive approach is to develop a scientific model of the system, incorporating measurements of factors such as chance and risk with which to predict and compare the outcomes of alternative decisions, strategies or controls[1]. The purpose is to help management to determine its policy and actions scientifically.

Given that O.R. represents an integrated framework to help make decisions, it is important to have a clear understanding of this framework so that it can be applied to a generic problem like traffic congestion. To achieve this, the so-called O.R. approach is now detailed. This approach comprises the following seven sequential steps[1]: (1) Orientation, (2) Problem Definition, (3) Data Collection, (4) Model Formulation, (5) Solutions, (6) Model Validation and Output Analysis, and (7) Implementation and Monitor. While most of the academic emphasis has been on Steps 4, 5 and 6, It should be noted that the other steps are equally important from a practical perspective. Indeed, insufficient attention to these steps has been the reason why O.R. has sometimes been mistakenly looked upon as impractical or inefficient in the real world. Attempt has been made by traffic engineers to model traffic flow using the rules of fluid dynamics, they likening it to the flow of a fluid in a pipe. Congestion simulations and real-time observations have shown that in heavy but free flowing traffic, jams can arise spontaneously, triggered by minor events, such as an abrupt steering maneuver by a single motorist. Traffic scientists liken such a situation to the sudden freezing of super-cooled fluid. However, unlike a fluid, traffic flow is often affected by signals or other events at junctions that periodically affect the smooth flow of traffic. Alternative mathematical theories exist, such as Boris Kerner’s three- phase traffic theory. Because of the poor correlation of theoretical models to actual observed traffic flows, transportation planners and engineers attempt to forecast traffic flow using empirical models. These models are then typically calibrated by measuring actual traffic flows on the links in the network, and the baseline flows are adjusted accordingly. A group of MIT mathematicians[11] developed a model that describes the formation of "phantom jams," in which small disturbances (a driver hitting the brake too hard, or getting too close to another car) in heavy traffic can become amplified into a full-blown, self-sustaining traffic jam. Key to the study is the realization that the mathematics of such jams, which the researchers termed "jamitons," are strikingly similar to the equations that describe detonation waves generated by explosions, says Aslan Kasimov, lecturer in MIT's Department of Mathematics. That discovery enabled the group to solve traffic-jam equations that were first theorized in the 1950s. Economist Anthony Downs argues that traffic congestion is inevitable because of the benefits of having a relatively standard work period per day. Instead of the traditional solution of making the "pipe" large enough to accommodate the total demand for peak-hour vehicle travel (a supply-side solution), either by widening roadways or increasing "flow pressure" via automated highway systems, Downs advocates greater use of road pricing to reduce congestion (a demand-side solution, effectively demand), in turn plowing the revenues generated there from into public transportation projects. In 2011, research carried out in the US indicates that there may be a "fundamental law of road congestion."The researchers, from the University of Toronto and the London School of Economics, analyzed data from the U.S. Highway Performance and Monitoring System for 1983, 1993 and 2003, as well as information on population, employment, geography, transit, and political factors. They determined that the number of vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT) increases in direct proportion to the available -kilometers of roadways. The implication is that building new roads and widening existing ones only results in additional traffic that continues to rise until peak congestion returns to the previous level

3. CAUSES OF TRAFFIC CONGESTION

There are numerous causes of traffic congestion. Most of them reduce the capacity of a road at a given point or over a certain length, or increase the number of vehicles required for a given volume of people or goods. Close to half of the traffic congestion in our cities is recurring, and is attributed to sheer weight of traffic; most of the rest is attributed to traffic incidents, road work and weather events. . Some of the causes of traffic jams are:

 Changing as result of accidents, disabled vehicles, stopped motorists, or other sights out of the ordinary  Construction, which may result in lane closures or the need to drive more slowly than normal  Events that draw large crowds  Inclement weather, leading motorists to have to drive more slowly or cautiously  Unforeseen emergencies  More cars on the road as a result more people wanting their own personal transport to get around with.  Disabled vehicles, which may obstruct traffic  Lack of proper infrastructure. Local, state and federal governments fail to act on the looming threat of heavy congestion until it happens.  Lack of alternative routes. Cities have limited capacity to expand due to poor funding and planning restrictions preventing building on green belt spaces.  Congestion almost always happens when people are travelling to and from work.  Everyone has to travel to and from work at the same time each day with the normal working hours 8am to 4pm in Nigeria as an example.  Lack of , or poor public transport options.. If there isn’t enough buses, trams, or local trains people are forced to take their cars to work.

 Considerate driving behaviour promotion and enforcement. Frequent lane changes can reduce a road's capacity and exacerbate jams. In some countries signs are placed on highways to raise awareness, while others have introduced legislation against inconsiderate driving.  Speed limit reductions, as practiced on the M25 motorway in London. With lower speeds allowing cars to drive closer together, this increases the capacity of a road.  Lane splitting, in which some jurisdictions allow motorcycles, tricycles, scooters and bicycles to travel in the space between cars, buses, and trucks.

4. IMPACT OF TRAFFIC CONGESTION

 Wasting time of motorists and passengers. As a non-productive activity for most people, congestion reduces regional economic health.  Delays, which may result in late arrival for employment, meetings, and education, resulting in lost business, disciplinary action or other personal losses.  Inability to forecast travel time accurately, leading to drivers allocating more time to travel "just in case", and less time on productive activities.  Wasted fuel increasing air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions owing to increased idling, acceleration and braking.  Wear and tear on vehicles as a result of idling in traffic and frequent acceleration and braking, leading to more frequent repairs and replacements.  Stressed and frustrated motorists, encouraging road rage and reduced health of motorists  Emergencies: blocked traffic may interfere with the passage of emergency vehicles traveling to their destinations where they are urgently needed.  Spill-over effect from congested main arteries to secondary roads and side as alternative routes are attempted which may affect neighborhood amenity.  Higher chance of collisions due to tight spacing and constant stop – and – move.

5. SOLUTION TO TRAFFIC CONGESTION a. Supply Congestion can be reduced by increasing road capacity (supply). Capacity can be increased in a number of ways. For example, when new lanes are created, households with a second car that used to be parked most of the time may begin to use this second car for commuting. Increase supply will include:

 Adding more capacity at bottlenecks (such as by adding more lanes at the expense of hard shoulders or safety zones, or by removing local obstacles like supports and widening )  Adding more capacity over the whole of a route (generally by adding more lanes)  Creating new routes  Traffic management improvements

b. Demand

Congestion can also be reduced by reducing traffic (demand). Reduction of demand can

include:  Parking restrictions making motor vehicle use less attractive by increasing the monetary and non- monetary costs of parking, introducing greater competition for limited city or road space. Most transport planning experts agree that free parking distorts the market in favour of car travel, exacerbating congestion.  Park and ride facilities allowing parking at a distance and allowing continuation by public transport or ride sharing. Park-and-ride is commonly found at BRT stations, freeway entrances in suburban areas, and at the edge of smaller cities.  Reduction of road capacity to force traffic onto other travel modes. Methods include and the concept. c. Road pricing, charging money for access onto a road/specific area at certain times,

congestion levels or for certain road users

 "Cap and trade", in which only licensed cars are allowed on the roads. A limited quota of car licenses are issued each year and traded in a free market fashion. This guarantees that the number of cars does not exceed road capacity while avoiding the negative effects of shortages normally associated with quotas. However, since demand for cars tends to be inelastic, the result are exorbitant purchase prices for the licenses, pricing out the lower levels of society, as seen Singapore's Certificate of Entitlement scheme.  , where a certain area, such as the inner part of a congested city, is surrounded with a cordon into which entry with a car requires payment. The cordon may be a physical boundary (i.e., surrounded by toll stations) or it may be virtual, with enforcement being via spot checks or cameras on the entry routes. Major examples are Singapore’s electronic road pricing, the London congestion charge system, Stockholm congestion tax and the use of High – occupancy toll lanes, predominately in North America.

d. Road Space Rationing, where regulatory restrictions prevent certain types of vehicles from driving

under certain circumstances or in certain areas.

 Number plate restrictions based on days of the week, as practiced in several large cities in the world, such as , Mexico City, Manila, and São Paulo. In effect, such cities are banning a different part of the automobile fleet from roads each day of the week. Mainly introduced to combat smog, these measures also reduce congestion. A weakness of this method is that richer drivers can purchase a second or third car to circumvent the ban.  Permits, where only certain types of vehicles (such as in residential areas) are permitted to enter a certain area, and other types (such as through-traffic) are banned. For example, Bertrand Delanoe, the mayor of , has proposed to impose a complete ban on motor vehicles in the city's inner districts, with exemptions only for residents, businesses, and the disabled.

e. Policy Approaches

These are to provide either strategic alternatives or to encourage greater usage of existing alternatives through promotion, subsidies or restrictions.  Incentives to use Public transport, increasing modal shares. This can be achieved through infrastructure investment, subsidies, transport integration , pricing strategies, improved timetabling and greater priority for buses to reduce journey time e.g. (BRT Lanes),  Cycling promotion through legislation, cycle facilities, subsidies, and awareness campaigns. Cycling friendly policies has been adopted in the Netherlands for decades, and around a quarter of their commuting is done by bicycle.  Promotion of more flexible work place practices. For example, a flexible workplaces pilot was undertaken in Brisbane, Australia during 2009 to test the applicability of a voluntary travel behaviour change program to achieve transport system outcomes, particularly as they related to managing congestion, either through mode shift or peak spreading.  Telecommuting encouraged through legislation and subsidies.  Online shopping promotion, potentially with automated delivery booths helping to solve the last mile problem and reduce shopping trips made by car.

f. Traffic reports

Traffic reports are evolving in developing countries. They may not always be able to spare us having to sit in heavy traffic, but they can at the very least let us know what to expect, and help us decide whether or not to take another rout. There are several ways to get information on the traffic conditions, some are:

 Radio: Many radio stations have periodic traffic reports. Some of such radio stations in Nigeria are Bond FM, Radio Lagos 107.5, etc. They give information about the conditions on the main roads in their respective states, and sometimes of problems on secondary roads.  Highway signs: In some places, electronic signs on the highways inform motorists of road conditions and upcoming obstructions. They may provide information on how many minutes one may expect it to take to travel a certain number of miles/kilometers.  Smartphone: There are various sites accessible on the smart- phone that can give update about traffic information. Mapping sites like Google Maps. It is very dangerous, and in most places, illegal to use smart-phone to determine traffic condition when driving  GPS Navigator: Many but not all GPS navigation devices are capable of getting current traffic information and some actually when necessary will lead you on a detour.

g. Private Highway

A private highway is a highway owned and managed for profit by private industry. Private highways are common in Asia, Europe, America, and few in Africa on an experimental basis of built operate and transfer (BOT) basis. Typically, private highways are built by companies that charge tolls for a period while the debt is retired, after which the highway is turned over to government control. Africa: The fourth mainland bridge from Lekki to Ikorodu in Lagos state is an example. Asia: India has a private highway between the two cities of Bangalore and Mysore in the state of Karnataka; all toll roads in Indonesia are built by private companies. America: Mexico has some highways operated by private companies; the 108 km Highway 407 ETR through the Toronto Area in Canada is operated privately under a 99-year lease agreement with the provincial government. The highway uses electronic toll collection. Users who do not have a toll tag (called a transponder) in their vehicle are tracked by automatic plate number recognition with the toll bill being mailed to the address of the plate on file. Europe: 8,000 km out of the 11,000kmof France highways are under private concession; 3,120 kilometers of Italy’s highways (comprising 56% of the country's toll roads) are controlled by Autos trade Concession; theM6 Toll was the first private toll motorway in the United kingdom. The project was described by urbantransport-technology.com as a "43 km dual three lane (plus hard ), £485.5 million motorway" with six toll stations.

h. Use of so-called intelligent transportation system, which guide traffic:

 Traffic reporting, via radio, GPS and mobile apps, to advise road users  Variable message signs installed along the roadway, to advise road users  Navigation Systems, possibly linked up to automatic traffic reporting  Traffic counters permanently installed, to provide real-time traffic counts  Convergence indexing road traffic monitoring, to provide information on the use of highway on- ramps  Automated highway systems, a future idea which could reduce the safe interval between cars (required for braking in emergencies) and increase highway capacity by as much as 100% while increasing travel speeds  Parking guidance and information systems providing dynamic advice to motorists about free parking  Active Traffic Management system opens up UK motorway hard shoulder as an extra traffic lane, it uses CCTV and VMS to control and monitor the traffic's use of the extra lane 6. CONCLUSION This work is centered on what is traffic congestion, some available models, the causes, effect and solutions to congestions. Most of the solutions provided are heuristic. It is believed that these solutions may reduced traffic congestions.

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