RECENT DEVELOPMENT ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION IN OUR CITIES Adewoye S. Olabode Department of Mathematics, Yaba College of Technology, Yaba, Lagos. [email protected] ABSTRACT Large cities in developing countries have problems with traffic congestion resulting in massive delays, increased fuel wastage, monetary losses. Traffic congestion is one of the major contributors to air pollution with adverse effect on our climate, health and the economy. The object of the work is to investigate causes of traffic congestion in some selected cities, proffer solutions to the problem and report the current traffic situation in our cities. Some of the problems identified are: Lack of plans, poor maintenance, road design, project management, poor traffic management around areas identified as hotspots, impunity associated with some traffic offenders and lack of political will to make change, etc. We divide our solutions into two, namely immediate and future solution. These solutions are expected to reduce traffic congestion in our cities. 1. INTRODUCTION Large cities in developing countries have problems with traffic congestion resulting in massive delays, increased fuel wastage, monetary losses. Traffic congestion is a condition that occurs on the road networks as use increases, and is characterized by slower speeds, longer trip times, and increased vehicular queuing. When traffic demand on the road is great enough then the interaction between vehicles slows down the speed, this results in some congestion. As demand approaches the intersections along the road or reaches full capacity of a road, extreme traffic congestion sets in. When this occurs, vehicles are fully stopped for periods of time. Traffic congestion (Go- Slow or Traffic- Jam) can lead to drivers becoming frustrated and engaging in road rage. The Department for Transport[15] sees growing congestion as one of the most serious transport problems facing the UK. In 2006, Rod Eddington published a UK government-sponsored report into the future of Britain’s transport infrastructure.. The Eddington Transport Study[18] set out the case for action to improve road and rail networks, as a "crucial enabler of sustained productivity and competitiveness". Eddington has estimated that congestion may cost the economy of England £22 billion a year in lost time by 2025. He warned that roads were in serious danger of becoming so congested that the economy would suffer. At the launch of the report Eddington told journalists and transport industry representatives introducing road pricing to encourage drivers to drive less was an "economic no-brainer". There was, he said "no attractive alternative". It would allegedly cut congestion by half by 2025, and bring benefits to the British economy totaling £28 billion a year. In recent years, the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality has made huge investments on intelligent transportation and public transportation. Despite that, traffic is a significant problem in Istanbul. Istanbul has chosen the second most congested and the most sudden-stopping traffic in the world. Travel times in Turkey’s largest city take on average 55 percent longer that they should, even in relatively less busy hours. According to a survey by Waze[17], traffic congestion in Metro Manila is called the "worst" in the world, after Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, and Jakarta. It is worsened by violations of traffic laws, like illegal parking, loading and unloading, beating the red light, and wrong – way driving. Traffic congestion in Metro Manila is caused by the large number of registered vehicles, lack of roads, and overpopulation, especially on Manila, Pateros and Caloocan. Traffic caused losses of ₱137,500,000,000 on the economy in 2011, and un-built roads and railway projects also causes worsening congestion. Indonesia, particularly its capital city Jakarta, is experiencing daily congestion in both major highways and toll roads. The traffic congestion follows a repeatable pattern during the day, and locals accept it as daily routine. The city is actively combating this issue with various projects, including the expansion of the Transjakarta bus-way system, a proposed monorail project, and an underground train system. However, the Transjakarta system, the longest bus-way system in the world, is plagued with an insufficient number of buses to serve the long routes of some of its corridors. 2. OPERATIONAL RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND CONGESTION MODELS Operational research is the applications of modern methods on complex problems arising in the direction and management of large systems of men, machines, materials and money industry, business and defense. The distinctive approach is to develop a scientific model of the system, incorporating measurements of factors such as chance and risk with which to predict and compare the outcomes of alternative decisions, strategies or controls[1]. The purpose is to help management to determine its policy and actions scientifically. Given that O.R. represents an integrated framework to help make decisions, it is important to have a clear understanding of this framework so that it can be applied to a generic problem like traffic congestion. To achieve this, the so-called O.R. approach is now detailed. This approach comprises the following seven sequential steps[1]: (1) Orientation, (2) Problem Definition, (3) Data Collection, (4) Model Formulation, (5) Solutions, (6) Model Validation and Output Analysis, and (7) Implementation and Monitor. While most of the academic emphasis has been on Steps 4, 5 and 6, It should be noted that the other steps are equally important from a practical perspective. Indeed, insufficient attention to these steps has been the reason why O.R. has sometimes been mistakenly looked upon as impractical or inefficient in the real world. Attempt has been made by traffic engineers to model traffic flow using the rules of fluid dynamics, they likening it to the flow of a fluid in a pipe. Congestion simulations and real-time observations have shown that in heavy but free flowing traffic, jams can arise spontaneously, triggered by minor events, such as an abrupt steering maneuver by a single motorist. Traffic scientists liken such a situation to the sudden freezing of super-cooled fluid. However, unlike a fluid, traffic flow is often affected by signals or other events at junctions that periodically affect the smooth flow of traffic. Alternative mathematical theories exist, such as Boris Kerner’s three- phase traffic theory. Because of the poor correlation of theoretical models to actual observed traffic flows, transportation planners and highway engineers attempt to forecast traffic flow using empirical models. These models are then typically calibrated by measuring actual traffic flows on the links in the network, and the baseline flows are adjusted accordingly. A group of MIT mathematicians[11] developed a model that describes the formation of "phantom jams," in which small disturbances (a driver hitting the brake too hard, or getting too close to another car) in heavy traffic can become amplified into a full-blown, self-sustaining traffic jam. Key to the study is the realization that the mathematics of such jams, which the researchers termed "jamitons," are strikingly similar to the equations that describe detonation waves generated by explosions, says Aslan Kasimov, lecturer in MIT's Department of Mathematics. That discovery enabled the group to solve traffic-jam equations that were first theorized in the 1950s. Economist Anthony Downs argues that rush hour traffic congestion is inevitable because of the benefits of having a relatively standard work period per day. Instead of the traditional solution of making the "pipe" large enough to accommodate the total demand for peak-hour vehicle travel (a supply-side solution), either by widening roadways or increasing "flow pressure" via automated highway systems, Downs advocates greater use of road pricing to reduce congestion (a demand-side solution, effectively rationing demand), in turn plowing the revenues generated there from into public transportation projects. In 2011, research carried out in the US indicates that there may be a "fundamental law of road congestion."The researchers, from the University of Toronto and the London School of Economics, analyzed data from the U.S. Highway Performance and Monitoring System for 1983, 1993 and 2003, as well as information on population, employment, geography, transit, and political factors. They determined that the number of vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT) increases in direct proportion to the available lane-kilometers of roadways. The implication is that building new roads and widening existing ones only results in additional traffic that continues to rise until peak congestion returns to the previous level 3. CAUSES OF TRAFFIC CONGESTION There are numerous causes of traffic congestion. Most of them reduce the capacity of a road at a given point or over a certain length, or increase the number of vehicles required for a given volume of people or goods. Close to half of the traffic congestion in our cities is recurring, and is attributed to sheer weight of traffic; most of the rest is attributed to traffic incidents, road work and weather events. Some of the causes of traffic jams are: Changing lanes as result of accidents, disabled vehicles, stopped motorists, or other sights out of the ordinary Construction, which may result in lane closures or the need to drive more slowly than normal Events that draw large crowds Inclement weather, leading