Poverty in a pandemic

Peter Matejic, Head of Evidence Introducing me

I joined JRF as Head of Evidence in July 2019. My team are the guardians of JRF evidence on poverty.

We provide the knowledge-base to underpin and assess JRF's outcome plans and real-world impact. What I want to cover

1: Where we were on poverty before coronavirus?

2: What we know so far – a very confused (but definitely negative) picture

3: What we don’t know – what is the trajectory of the recession

4: How are we planning to monitor the changing situation and how you can help is in the half of countries and regions with higher poverty rates

Percentage of people in poverty Percentage of children in poverty 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 East Midlands Scotland South East South East South West South West Scotland Northern Ireland Northern Ireland East Midlands East East North West Wales Wales North West North East Yorkshire and the Humber Yorkshire and the Humber West Midlands West Midlands North East London London

Percentage of working-age adults in poverty Percentage of pensioners in poverty 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 East Northern Ireland Northern Ireland North East East Midlands East Midlands South East East South West South East Scotland South West North West Scotland West Midlands North West Wales Yorkshire and the Humber Yorkshire and the Humber West Midlands North East Wales London London There are differing trends by different population groups

35

30 Children 25 All individuals 20 Working-age adults Pensioners 15 10 5 0 …but little variation by Local Authority

…although there is likely to be bigger variations within Local Authorities, as shown by the Income Domain of the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation The (on-going) effect of the coronavirus outbreak: is a mixture of pain now…

Percentage of December employed population 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Rhondda Cynon Taf / Rhondda Cynon Taf / Merthyr Tudful Blaenau / Conwy / Conwy Newport / Casnewydd Caerphilly / Caerffili Pembrokeshire / Sir Benfro / Tor-faen Denbighshire / Sir Ddinbych / Pen-y-bont ar Ogwr Carmarthenshire / Sir Gaerfyrddin / Gwynedd Isle of / Ynys Môn Wrexham / Wrecsam Neath Port Talbot / Castell-nedd Port Talbot Swansea / Abertawe / Caerdydd Vale of / Bro Morgannwg / Ceredigion / Powys Flintshire / Sir y Fflint Monmouthshire / Sir Fynwy

Newly claiming UC out of work Newly claiming UC in work 86% of those surveyed faced extra costs, with almost 6 in 10 reporting extra food costs

0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % 90 % 100 % Looking at those

Food lacking one of the named six Heating, electricity and/or water categories: • Two thirds Home-schooling children (e.g. books, pens/paper and furniture) have extra costs in at Children in general (e.g. clothing, nappies and toys) least two

Internet and/or devices to access the internet categories • A third have

Childcare costs extra costs in at least three Other additional costs categories

Any of these Around 7 in 10 families have cut back on food, children’s items, utilities, school items or internet access

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Looking at those Food for adults or children lacking one of these …of which food for adults categories:

…of which food for children • Around half have cut back Items for children such as clothing, nappies and toys in at least two categories Heating, electricity and/or water • Over 1 in 5 have cut back Home-schooling items such as books, pens/paper and furniture in at least

Internet and/or devices to access the internet three categories Any of the above Around half of those surveyed are behind with the council tax, their rent / mortgage or other bills

0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % Around 1 in 6 of those surveyed Council tax are behind on more than one of these categories

Rent / Mortgage

Other bills / Payments

Any of the above Around 6 in 10 have borrowed money from one of the sources listed below

0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 %

Friends or family

Credit cards

Going into current account overdraft

Personal bank loan

Loan from the Government

Payday loans

Borrowed from a different source

Any of the above …with potentially much more pain to come

Percentage of December employed population 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Conwy / Conwy Powys / Powys Pembrokeshire / Sir Benfro Gwynedd / Gwynedd Rhondda Cynon Taf / Rhondda Cynon Taf Denbighshire / Sir Ddinbych Carmarthenshire / Sir Gaerfyrddin Ceredigion / Ceredigion Torfaen / Tor-faen Merthyr Tydfil / Merthyr Tudful Newport / Casnewydd Blaenau Gwent / Blaenau Gwent Flintshire / Sir y Fflint Bridgend / Pen-y-bont ar Ogwr Isle of Anglesey / Ynys Môn Caerphilly / Caerffili Wrexham / Wrecsam / Bro Morgannwg Monmouthshire / Sir Fynwy Swansea / Abertawe Neath Port Talbot / Castell-nedd Port Talbot Cardiff / Caerdydd

Newly claiming UC out of work Furlough SEISS …with worries about housing costs across all tenures, especially for those furloughed

Proportion worried about paying rent or mortgage after lockdown 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

All mortgage

Owned with Owned Furloughed

All

Furloughed Private rented Private

All

Social rented So what do we think needs to happen?

Three things: • Now: Increase the child element of Universal Credit and Child Tax Credits by £20 a week to help with extra costs for families with children • Later in the year: Withdraw the coronavirus support schemes with extreme caution, seeking to minimise the impact on those who currently depend on the schemes • Ongoing: Continue to ‘level up’ the economy to create opportunities for everyone across the county, which will still be our greatest national challenge, and more important than ever. How can you help?

Later this year, we will be publishing (with help from the Bevan Foundation) ‘Poverty in Wales’, our State of the Nation report ➢ What analysis would you like to see? ➢ What data sources should we be looking at? ➢ Any emerging trends from your work?