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Aviation Day Caribbean 2018

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Aviation Day Caribbean 2018 WELCOME COFFEE PROUDLY SPONSORED BY MASTER OF CEREMONY CANDICE KIMMEL PRESIDENT OPENING REMARKS KERRY SYMMONDS MINISTER TOURISM & INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT THE MAGIC OF AVIATION PETER CERDÁ REGIONAL VICE PRESIDENT, THE AMERICAS AVIATION AS ECONOMIC ENABLER • LAST YEAR, MORE THAN US$27 BILLION IN TOURISM SPENDING WAS MADE POSSIBLE BY AIR TRAVEL TO THE CARIBBEAN. • AND AVIATION SUPPORTS MORE THAN US$35.9 BILLION IN GDP AND OVER 1.6 MILLION JOBS. • EQUIVALENT TO 14% OF THE TOTAL CARIBBEAN ECONOMY. BEAUTIFUL BEACHES, HISTORY & RICH CULTURE AVIATION AS A LIFE LINE QUESTIONS FOR THE DAY ❖ RIGHT BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT? ❖ OVER-TAXATION? ❖ AWARE OF GLOBAL COMPETITION? ❖ FOSTER INTRA-CARIBBEAN CONNECTIVITY? ❖ TOO MANY AIRLINES IN THE REGION? ❖ CONSOLIDATION? INDUSTRY PROFITS UNDER PRESSURE IN 2018, BUT STILL HIGH PER PAX PROFIT SHOWS WIDE REGIONAL VARIATION RECORD NUMBER OF CITY PAIRS = MORE CHOICE 22,000 4.00 20,000 Unique city pairs 3.50 18,000 16,000 3.00 pairs - 14,000 2.50 12,000 10,000 2.00 8,000 US$/RTK in 2014US$ US$/RTK Number Number of unique city 6,000 Real cost of air transport 1.50 4,000 1.00 2,000 - 0.50 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, IATA Statistics, SRS Analyzer and our own forecasts INTRA-CARIBBEAN CONNECTIVITY IMPEDIMENTS TO BETTER CONNECTIVITY TAXES, CHARGES & FEES REGULATORY BARRIERS INEFFICIENT INFRASTRUCTURE TAXATION EXAMPLE: CARIBBEAN TAXATION EXAMPLE: CARIBBEAN EACH $1 OF TICKET TAX COULD LEAD TO: OVER 40,000 FEWER FOREIGN PASSENGERS $20M OF REDUCED TOURIST EXPENDITURE 1,200 FEWER JOBS CARTAGENA: 2015 EXAMPLE AIRPORT FEE REDUCTION INTERNATIONAL PASSENGERS 52% TOURIST ARRIVALS 47% CARIBBEAN COMPETES AGAINST GLOBAL DESTINATIONS MAY 11, 2018 PASSENGERS EXPLORE NEW BEACH DESTINATIONS MAY 11, 2018 PREPARING FOR TOMORROW 20 YEAR PAX GROWTH OUTLOOK TO 2036 Latin America & The Caribbean INCREMENTAL PAX TRAFFIC GROWTH (2036 VS. 2016) THE FUTURE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT STATES THAT GET IT = POSITIVE OUTCOMES Singapore Panama Dubai 3 PRIORITIES TO ADVANCE CARRIBEAN AVIATION AGENDA REVIEW COST STRUCTURES & EXCESSIVE TAXATION TO GLOBAL AVERAGES 1 TO BE COMPETITIVE. ENSURE GOVERNMENT SEES AVIATION AS A BUSINESS PARTNER AND ECONOMIC 2 ENGINE OF GROWTH. UPDATE INFRASTRUCTURE & ENHANCE 3 SECURITY AND FACILITATION PRACTICES. THANK YOU KEYNOTE SPEECH DR. WARREN SMITH PRESIDENT WELCOME BY ALTA LUIS FELIPE DE OLIVEIRA EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR ALTA, an association at the service of the industry Our objective is to contribute to the economic and social development of our nations through a safer, more efficient and sustainable aviation industry in the Latin American and Caribbean region. To achieve it, ALTA is bringing more companies together to join efforts across the entire industry, from airlines to suppliers, governments and other industry associations. Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association EXECUTIVEExecutive Committee COMMITTEE PRESIDENT Hernán Rincón VICE PRESIDENTS E X E C U T I V E DIRECTOR Andrés Conesa Tracy Cooper Pedro Heilbron Enrique Cueto Luis Felipe de Oliveira Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association Air Transport continues to outperform Economic Growth in the region 12% 11.1% 9.6% 7.8% 6.2% 6.2% 5.2% 5% 4.4% Traffic Growth 2.8% 2.8% 0.9% GDP Growth 1.3% 0.9% -0.2% -2% -0.7% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: ALTA, World Bank Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association Latin American and Caribbean carriers have doubled passenger traffic during the last 10 years 281M Passengers carried in 2017 7% of World Total Source: ALTA Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association Latin American and Caribbean Passenger Growth 650 +650M 2035 Million passengers More than 650 million passengers will travel by airplane in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2035 Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association Caribbean Region in Perspective LATIN AMERICAN & CARIBBEAN AIR TRANSPORT ASSOCIATION GDP Caribbean GDP, PPP (constant 2011 international $) $120 $100 $80 $60 CAGR: 8.03% USD Billions $40 $20 $0 Source: World Bank 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association Caribbean Region • Travel & Tourism total contribution to GDP is around 15% (highest in all regions worldwide) • Tourism accounts for 1 in every 8 jobs • 4 times more dependent on tourism that any other region in the world • Lowest growth rate in Latin America and Caribbean 2,5% • 30.1M tourist arrivals in 2017, equivalent to 65%+ of total Caribbean population • Tourist arrivals to the Caribbean represent 2.3% of Global International Tourist arrivals Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association Caribbean Capacity Breakdown Other Central America 6.2M 3.9M 0.4M South America Source: ALTA Analysis based on OAG data Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association Caribbean Region Capacity Fastest growing markets in the Caribbean (seats offered) 10% 8% 6% 2017 - 4% 2% CAGR 2008 CAGR 0% -2% Central America Europe South America North America Intra-caribbean Source: ALTA Analysis based on OAG data Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association CaribbeanCaribbean NA– NA - CapacityCapacity CAGR 2008-2017 Market Share 40 USA Carriers 3% 79.7% 35 Canada Carriers 20.2% 14% 30 Caribbean Carriers -3.8% 6.3% 25 20 15 10 Million Million Seats 5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 USA Canada Caribbean Source: ALTA Analysis based on OAG data Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association Challenges & Opportunities Challenges • Limited Inter-Region Connectivity • Gaps in Infrastructure • High Government Taxes and ATC • Regulatory Fragmentation Costs • Lack of Consolidation • Fragmented Market Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association Connectivity • No true Caribbean Hub (over • Intra-Caribbean connections 93% of the Region’s Inter- are mostly dominated by Traffic is non-stop) outside carriers Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association Opportunities Population: 349 M SAM-NAM Market • Caribbean is located in the middle of a population of 736M people • 9 Million Annual Passengers Population: 389 M • Strong Growth: 8.0% CAGR • 21 Competing Carriers Source: ALTA Analysis Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association Positive Examples Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association Joint ventures and agreements ALTA/IATA ISSA program for Latin America and Caribbean Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association Financial Park building, office 23G, Costa del Este, Panama City - Panama ALTA Latin American and Caribbean Air http://www.alta.aero @ALTA_aero Transport Assoc. REGULATORY PANEL: RECOGNIZING AVIATION AS ECONOMIC DRIVER CHRISTOPHER BARKS FAA PAULINE YEARWOOD CARICOM MAURICIO NICHOLLS RUBIS VINCENT VANDERPOOL-WALLACE BEDFORDBAKER GROUP NARI WILLIAMS-SINGH JAMAICA CIVIL AVIATION AUTHORITY NETWORKING COFFEE BREAK PROUDLY SPONSORED BY KEYNOTE PRESENTATION: AIR TRANSPORT, COMPETITIVENESS & CONNECTIVITY DAMIEN REEVES ECONOMIST JAMES WILTSHIRE HEAD OF POLICY ANALYSIS OUTLINE ❖ CONNECTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN ❖ CAUSES OF LOST CONNECTIVITY ❖ CONSUMER IMPACTS OF LOST CONNECTIVITY ❖ ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF LOST CONNECTIVITY ❖ CONCLUSIONS & POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 49 AVIATION AS AN ECONOMIC ENGINE Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 50 HIGH LEVELS OF DEPENDENCY ON AIR TRANSPORT Departures per Capita, 2017 Global average = 0.5 Source: IATA Economics based on PaxIS, World Bank GROWTH RATES VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE REGION Passenger Growth by Country, 2007-17 Source: IATA Economics based on DDS THE IMPORTANCE OF CONNECTIVITY Direct Connectivity • Reflects direct services available from a given airport; • Measured by number of destinations and/or destination importance; • Can also consider frequency. Indirect Connectivity • Reflects destinations that only be reached with one or more stops; • Connections weighted in terms of their quality; • Key factors: connecting time and relative diversion. ‘Hub’ Connectivity • For hub airports reflects the number of flight pairs that can be connected taking into account mínimum and máximum connecting times. • As with indirect connectivity, connections can be weighted by quality in terms of diversion factor and connecting times CUBA & DOMINICAN REP. LEAD IN CONNECTIVITY Global Air Connectivity at City Level, 2018 Source: IATA Economics based on SRS Analyzer DECOUPLING BETWEEN INTRA & EXTRA REGIONAL Passenger Growth by Region, 2007-17 Source: Intervistas based on data provided by IATA GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY MOSTLY INCREASING Change in Global Connectivity 2008 to 2018 Source: Intervistas based on data provided by IATA INTRA-REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY CONTRACTING Change in Regional Connectivity 2008 to 2018 Source: IATA Economics CAUSES OF LOST CONNECTIVITY High costs, taxes, Lack of Inefficient and fees regulatory operations harmonisation SHORT ROUTES CHALLENGING COMMERCIALLY Yield vs Distance by Country Source: IATA Economics based on PaxIS SHORT ROUTES CHALLENGING COMMERCIALLY Average Revenue Per Passenger Per Kilometre, 2016 Global Average = USD0.08 Source: IATA Economics based on PaxIS HIGH COSTS ADD TO THE CHALLENGE Average airport charges per passenger (one-way) Source: IATA Aviation Charges Intelligence Center 61 BURDEN OF TAXES HIGHEST WITHIN REGION Taxes, fees and charges (for return travel in June 2018) Extra-Regional Intra-Regional Source: CDB based on LIAT, CAL, BahamasAir, AA, Copa CARTAGENA SHOWED IMPACT OF CUTTING
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