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The Vulnerability of Latvia's Agriculture

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The Vulnerability of Latvia's Agriculture Water and Environmental Studies Department of Thematic Studies Linköping University The vulnerability of Latvia’s agriculture: Farm level response to climatic and non- climatic stimuli Teiksma Buševa Master’s programme Science for Sustainable Development Master’s Thesis, 30 ECTS credits ISRN: LIU-TEMAV/MPSSD-A--11/005—SE Linköpings Universitet i ii Water and Environmental Studies Department of Thematic Studies Linköping University The vulnerability of Latvia’s agriculture: Farm level response to climatic and non- climatic stimuli Teiksma Buševa Master’s programme Science for Sustainable Development Master’s Thesis, 30 ECTS credits Supervisor: Mattias Hjerpe 2011 iii Upphovsrätt Detta dokument hålls tillgängligt på Internet – eller dess framtida ersättare – under 25 år från publiceringsdatum under förutsättning att inga extraordinära omständigheter uppstår. 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Copyright The publishers will keep this document online on the Internet – or its possible replacement – for a period of 25 years starting from the date of publication barring exceptional circumstances. The online availability of the document implies permanent permission for anyone to read, to download, or to print out single copies for his/her own use and to use it unchanged for non- commercial research and educational purpose. Subsequent transfers of copyright cannot revoke this permission. All other uses of the document are conditional upon the consent of the copyright owner. The publisher has taken technical and administrative measures to assure authenticity, security and accessibility. According to intellectual property law the author has the right to be mentioned when his/her work is accessed as described above and to be protected against infringement. For additional information about Linköping University Electronic Press and its procedures for publication and for assurance of document integrity, please refer to its www home page: http://www.ep.liu.se/. © Teiksma Buseva iv Table of Content ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................................... 1 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ......................................................................................................................... 2 TABLES .......................................................................................................................................................... 2 ILUSTRATIONS ............................................................................................................................................ 2 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 AIM AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS .................................................................................................................... 4 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ............................................................................................................. 5 2.1 VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ................................................ 6 2.2 EFFECT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE .............................................................................. 7 2.3 VULNERABILITY IN AGRICULTURE ................................................................................................................. 8 2.3 CHARACTERISTICS OF AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION ..................................................................................... 8 2.4 BACKGROUND INFORMATION ABOUT AGRICULTURE IN LATVIA .................................................................. 10 2.4.1 Role of agriculture in the national economy ....................................................................................... 10 2.4.2 Common Agricultural Policy in Latvia .................................................................................................. 10 2.4.3 Weather variability and climate .......................................................................................................... 11 3. MATERIALS AND METHOD ................................................................................................................. 14 3. MATERIALS AND METHOD ................................................................................................................. 14 3.1 PRIMARY DATA ............................................................................................................................................ 14 3.1.1. Sampling procedures and data collection .......................................................................................... 14 3.1.2 Data analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 15 3.2 SECONDARY DATA ....................................................................................................................................... 17 3.3 STRENGTHS AND LIMITATION OF THE STUDY ............................................................................................... 17 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ................................................................................................................ 19 4.1 CHARACTERISTICS OF SAMPLE ..................................................................................................................... 19 4.2 FARMER‘S PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND WEATHER VARIABILITY ................................................. 22 4.2.1 Present impact of climatic factors on farming activities ..................................................................... 24 4.2.2 Future impact of climatic factors on farming activities ....................................................................... 25 4.3 NON-CLIMATIC DRIVERS OF CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE ................................................................................ 28 4.3.1 Political factors .................................................................................................................................... 28 4.3.2 Economic factors ................................................................................................................................. 30 4.3.3 Technological and infrastructural factors............................................................................................ 33 4.3.4 Social factors ....................................................................................................................................... 35 4.4 IMPACTS, RISKS AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES ........................................................................................... 37 4.5 MAPPING FARMERS VULNERABILITY TO MULTIPLE STRESSORS.................................................................... 39 5. CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................................................... 42 5.1 RÉSUMÉ OF GENERAL FINDINGS ................................................................................................................... 42 5.1.1 Climatic factors .................................................................................................................................... 42 5.1.2 Non-climatic factors ............................................................................................................................ 42 5.1.3 Linking climate change and vulnerability and non-climatic factors .................................................... 43 5.1.4 Adaptation strategies .......................................................................................................................... 43 5.1.5 Gaps of knowledge .............................................................................................................................. 43 6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................................... 43 7. REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................... 44 APPENDIX 1: QUESTIONNAIRE .............................................................................................................. 54 v Abstract Agriculture is a climate sensitive sector whether it changes moderately and slowly or radically and rapidly. Many studies that focus on the vulnerability of agriculture, use climate scenarios and crop models to assess the potential impacts. This study seeks to identify (1) farmers‘
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