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Sunetra Gupta – the Theoretical Epidemiologist Who Believes in Herd Immunity and Doesn’T Believe in the Lockdown

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Sunetra Gupta – the Theoretical Epidemiologist Who Believes in Herd Immunity and Doesn’T Believe in the Lockdown THE BIOMEDICAL OPINION 16 SCIENTIST One-to-one COVID RESPONSE CONTROVERSY We hear from Professor Sunetra Gupta – the theoretical epidemiologist who believes in herd immunity and doesn’t believe in the lockdown. rofessor Sunetra Gupta made The Imperial model is the one that the news headlines in March, helped to convince the UK government Now all the barriers when she and her colleagues that a lockdown was the appropriate in the Department of Zoology response to the pandemic. have been removed, at the University of Oxford The Oxford report caused a brief storm, ran a predictive model that attracting praise and criticism, but was it is increasing. assumed COVID-19 had soon lost among the many other COVID arrived in the UK in January storms. But Professor Gupta was back in I don’t see any – a month earlier than thought. They the news in June, arguing that we ought Pargued that these extra weeks would have to have come out of lockdown much surprises in made all the difference, giving the virus sooner – for her, the economic damage enough time to spread to as much as being wrought, especially to that pattern two-thirds of the population, thus disadvantaged sections of society, was achieving a degree of herd immunity. greater than the impact of the virus. arrived very recently, had not spread Their research also assumed that only a Looking back on these events from the much to the population and had killed a small proportion of the population, just distance of a few more months, Gupta is substantial fraction of those infected. And 0.1%, would be at risk of hospitalisation. standing firmly by her work and her what we were trying to say was equally The Oxford model effectively presented words. “We were not saying that is what compatible with the data is this scenario a best-case scenario to balance out the had happened, but that it was a where it arrived earlier.” worst-case scenario from Imperial College possibility. We were laying out a scenario London that had predicted 250,000 to that fitted the data at that point. One A resurgence? 500,000 deaths in the UK if nothing was scenario, which the Imperial College team Nothing she has seen since, not even a done to halt the spread of the disease. had outlined, was that the virus had seeming resurgence of cases, has caused OPINION THE BIOMEDICAL One-to-one SCIENTIST 17 says, is to use serological testing to determine what proportion of the population has been exposed to COVID-19. SUNETRA GUPTA Another factor that interests Gupta is the Professor of extent of cross-immunity from exposure Theoretical to other coronaviruses. “I thought it Epidemiology might protect only against disease, but at the Department we’ve learned that these cross-immunity of Zoology, responses can actually protect against University of Oxford infection. That makes it hard to use 1987 – graduated from antibody tests to get a measure of how Princeton University many people have been exposed to the 1992 – PhD, Imperial College London virus. But the good news is that if a fraction 2009 – winner of the Royal of the population is already resistant to Society Rosalind Franklin Award infection, that brings the threshold for herd for her scientific achievements immunity down substantially.” Author of five fictional novels Economic vulnerability If herd immunity is permitted to build, the question of the vulnerable sections of the population becomes even more response? “It’s important to put every pressing. “I think the best strategy for bit of effort into understanding how the protecting the vulnerable is to shield. immune response to the virus affects Obviously mistakes were made in terms infection, disease, and severe disease. of sending infected people back to care That’s not a huge revelation, but what homes. I think we should be very careful, I hadn’t anticipated was that the cross- especially when we move back into protection from other coronaviruses goes her to reevaluate the scenario. “I don’t winter. But in many parts of the UK, the much further than expected. Serological think we are seeing a resurgence,” she infection rates are down to a point where surveys are also critical. We’ve been says. “It’s a useful piece of information to people can make a sensible decision about looking at blood banks in Scotland and know that lockdown worked in certain what level of risk to take.” can see infections going up in mid March, areas, to slow down the virus and to stop She is still no fan of lockdown, even the which suggest the virus was there in it from spreading from, say, a town to a eased version. “I don’t see any clear and February. Then there’s the work in the village. But as soon as you lift lockdown, rational thought behind it. More sewers where they’re looking for the the virus comes back.” importantly, my primary reason for being virus. I think it’s important to have these So the natural spread of the virus has vocal has all along been my deep concern sentinels in place to try and see when merely been delayed? “It’s not really a about the economically vulnerable, in this the virus arrived and where it spread.” resurgence. It’s just where it didn’t country and globally. I am terrified when I There are also political lessons: “I think increase in the first place. Now all the read reports of 260 million people going it’s important not to look at the barriers have been removed, it is under the poverty line as a situation along the increasing. I don’t see any surprises in result of these measures. We one dimension of ‘how that pattern. What I do think is also have to think of the are we going to get this interesting is that it’s not resurgent in young and what they have under control?’ We must many areas that did suffer the full brunt been denied.” consider all the of the pandemic, so in London, New York, consequences. I think we northern Italy, Sweden.” For Gupta, this Consider all also need to take a more implies that in these areas levels of herd consequences holistic view and not just immunity may have been reached, What then, for her, are the this individual, nationalistic meaning the spread of the virus is now key scientific lessons to be view. Think globally, IMAGES: GETTY being contained. The key step now, she learned so far from the COVID-19 think internationally.” .
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