Urban Mobility, What Is the Scarcest Resource: Energy, Environment, Money, Space, Time…?
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International Workshop on Urban Sustainable Transport CEDEUS Santiago de Chile Urban mobility what is the scarcest resource: energy, environment, money, space, time…? Pr. Yves Crozet Laboratory of Transport Economics (LET) University of Lyon - France [email protected] www.let.fr Introduction • Sustainable mobility and scarcity of resources, an economic approach • Tell me what is, according to you, the scarcest resource and I will tell you….. • ``El socialismo puede llegar sólo en bicicleta.'‘ José Antonio Viera-Gallo Assistant Secretary of Justice in the government of Salvador Allende • `Thanks to the « Grand Paris » Project, the daily travel time budget of commuters will be reduced by 30 minutes‘ • Nicolas Sarkozy (April 2009) Accessibility • “Accessibility at point 1 to a particular type of activity at point 2 is directly proportional to the size of the activity at point 2 and inversely proportional to a function of the distance separating the two points. • The total accessibility at point 1 to the activity is the summation of the accessibility to each of the points around point 1” (Hansen 1959, p. 74 ff)“ The components of accessibility • Size of the city • Travel Monetary budget • Average revenue/cap. • Density of jobs • Available space • Density of population • Available modes • Location of jobs • Infrastructure network • Location of residential a. • Average speed/mode • Quality of Public transit • Travel time budget • Etc. • We can describe accessibility as a function of territorial structure and transport supply. Ai D j f (cij) • with j • Ai = Accessibility to destinations D from point i • Dj = Activity destinations at points j • cij = Generalized cost (time, price…) Energy and Equity (Ivan Illich and J.P. Dupuy 1973) • The more you increase speed, the more you reduce equity • From the generalized cost to the generalized speed or « effective speed » • Ef. Speed = 1 / (1/S) + (k/w)) Urban mobility: some new trends • Some paradoxical changes in urban mobility policies • The decreasing relevancy of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) to define public choices • A public preference for slow modes (tramway, bus, bikes, pedestrian streets..) • Voluntary restrictions to car mobility (lower speed, reduced width of roads…) • Towards a lower accessibility ? A risk for urban attractiveness? Contents • 1) Speed and the scarcity of time : the first age of urban accessibility • 2) Public transit, biking, walking… and the scarcity of space and environment : the second age of urban accessibility • 3) Land use and the shortage of public money : the third age of accessibility 1) Speed and accessibility • The first age of accessibility is dominated by the search of speed and especially road speed for cars. • In this age, speed is the main factor of the improvement of urban accessibility. • The dream of policy makers is the same than the dream of car drivers: to keep car accessibility during peak hours at the same level than during off peak hours. Travel Time Budget and Speed Time Working time 2 key variables : - TTB/WT ratio - Average speed = Slope of OV TTB Space 10 Speed and the dilatation of our daily space-time Time Working time) OV OV’ TTB Space 11 Time budget Road speed Air Value Speed of Time Distance Walking Revenue Car Plane 12 Hypersonic Economic theory of urban accessibility Hansen 1959, Koenig 1974 βcij Ai Dj exp Parameter Sensitivity to j Generalised cost Generalized cost « Attractive Masses » Monetary cost + Travel Time + parameters Housing Jobs Shops, Leisure The key ratio • A city is a place where the number of opportunities is higher than in other places • Travel cost (time + money) is compared to the corresponding amenities • What we have to take into account is the ratio Opportunities ____________________ Travel cost TTB in France A GIS TO MODEL ACCESSIBILITY (MOSART) • Shops et services •PT network •Road network • Administratives areas • Census data • Orthophotos MOSART Version 2 : case study N Z.I. of Meyzieu La Soie Part-Dieu Station St-Exupéry Airport Urban area Peri-urban area HYPOTHESIS : LEA = 20 km/h LEA = 30 km/h 0 2500 m Peak hour speed Leslys = 25 km/h Leslys = 55 km/h Public Transport : 40 minutes from "J. Jaurès-Malherbe" bus stop 3 N 2 J. Jaurès-Malherbe 1 4 St-Exupéry 1 – Laurent Bonnevay 3 – Jonage Château des Marres Airport MA 0 2500 m 4 – Décines Verlaine 2 – Vaulx Hôtel de Ville PT accessibility : 300 m walk Subway around each stop Bus reached Public Transport : 40 minutes from "J. Jaurès–Malherbe" bus stop and "Meyzieu Z.I." tram stop N J. Jaurès - Malherbe 2 Meyzieu Z.I. 3 1 4 Jean-Macé MB St-Exupéry 1 – La Soie MA-LEA-Leslys 3 – Part-Dieu LEA-Leslys Airport 0 2500 m 2 – Charpennes MA 4 – Perrache MA Leslys PT accessibility : 300 m walk around each stop reached from J. Jaurès-Malherbe Subway Tramway 300 m walk around each stop Bus reached from Meyzieu Z.I. Public Transport : 40 minutes from "Meyzieu Z.I." tram stop (zoom ) Subway N Tramway Bus 300 m walk around each stop reached Town hall Charpennes Part-Dieu Station Gare de Villeurbanne Dauphiné Lacassagne Perrache Station 0 1000 m Jean-Macé More than 300 citybike (Vélo'V) stations spread across Lyon-Villeurbanne Subway Tramway N Vélo'V Town hall Charpennes Part-Dieu Station Gare de Villeurbanne Dauphiné Lacassagne Perrache Station 0 1000 m Jean-Macé Public Transport : 40 minutes from "Meyzieu Z.I." tram stop (zoom) 300 m walk around N each stop reached 300 m walk around each stop reached with Vélo’V Subway Tramway Bus Town Charpennes hall Part-Dieu Station Gare de Villeurbanne Dauphiné Lacassagne Perrache Station 0 1000 m Jean-Macé Public Transport : 40 minutes from "Meyzieu Z.I." tram stop (zoom ) 300 m walk around each stop reached N 300 m walk around each stop reached with Vélo’V Subway Tramway Bus Vélo'V Town Charpennes hall Part-Dieu Station Gare de Villeurbanne Dauphiné Lacassagne Perrache Station 0 1000 m Jean-Macé Socio-economic comparison of accessibility scenarios results : PT 40 minutes from industrial zone of Meyzieu + 17 % 40 + 105 % 36 + 31 % 32 28 + 424 % Without LEA-Leslys 24 tram 20 + 43 % With LEA-Leslys tram 16 + 32 % + 702 % With LEA-Leslys tram 12 + 780 % and Vélo'V 8 4 0 Area reached (km²) Shops and services Employment (x Population (x 10000) (thousand) 10000) First learning • TTB is a key variable directly linked to available speed of transport modes and to the accessible amenities • A higher speed or a (higher accessibility) does not lead to lower TTB but to a reinvestment of time gains in longer distances (rebound effect) • Zahavi’s conjecture is not a law (TTB = 1h), it is an hypothesis to understand urban mobility • TTB Standard deviation is high • The more you improve accessibility, the more you increase mobility… 2) Space consumption and the perverse effects of speed • The second age of accessibility emerges when road congestion is recurrent during peak hours. • Public transit (PT) becomes the priority to keep, or to improve urban accessibility. • Speed is therefore less important than reliability, frequency and comfort of PT. • Even some relatively slow modes (walking, cycling) are promoted. « Extensive » vs « intensive » cities (1) PopulationPopulation Nb of (x1000)(milliers)cars per 100 inhabitants ProfilExtensive Extensif ProfilIntensive Intensif 3941,43 3369,89 2381,40 2584,29 3157,77 8756,78 UrbanPIB urbain GDP/per par pers. C SurfaceSurface (x10x10 dollars US US)$ (/square(x100 ha)km) « Extensive » vs « intensive » cities (2) Average speed on road network (Km/h) Extensive Intensive Daily travel time Average daily budget (min) distance (Km) « Extensive » vs « intensive » cities (3) NbMotorisation of cars per 100(veh./ inhabitants 100 pers.) ProfilExtensive Extensif Profil Intensif 56,98 Intensive 38,75 5,90 27,59 65,38 92,88 ModalPart modale share de PartModal modale share des l'automobileof car (%) ofTransports public transport Publics MOSART Version 2 : case study MOSART Version 2 : case study MOSART Version 2 : case study Ex post evaluation of 2 new tramway lines Isochrone maps Ex post evaluation: who are the winners ? Transport and consumption of space Potential passenger flow in a dense area per hour for a 3.5 meters width infrastructure Car speed and consumption of space-time –(m2/h) m2 Speed km/h somme desTime, temps distance élémentaires and speed des différents in urban modes areas en milieu urbain dense 8,00 7,00 6,00 MarcheWalking à pied 5,00 véloBicycle 4,00 « Velo'vSSB » bus kilomètres 3,00 Bus 2,00 tramwTramway ay 1,00 métroMetro 0,00 Auto Car 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 minutes 3) Land use, environment and the scarcity of public funds • The third age of accessibility appears when public policies are no more focused on transport. Priorities become land use and environment • But there is not only one solution to design a sustainable mobility • And due to the high cost of investments in infrastructure (Road and PT), Urban policies will no more improve accessibility for all parts of the city Source: « The Millenium Cities Database » 1995 Urban density and transport energy use per capita for European cities TTB motorized means (min) and density (persons/ha) TTB motorized means (min) and Average daily distance traveled (Km) TTB motorized means (min) and Average road network speed (km/h) TTB motorized means (min) and overall average speed of public transport (km/h) Average road network speed and and overall average speed of public transport TTB motorized means (min) and share of travel by public modes TTB motorized means (min) and Air Pollution – total emissions per capita (kg/pers) Relationships