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Overview of Macro Economic Trends

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Overview of Macro Economic Trends CHAPTER 01 OVERVIEW OF MACRO ECONOMIC TRENDS Ÿ Size of the State Economy is expected to reach at `9.58 lakh crore in 2020-21. Ÿ The GSDP for the year 2020-21 is approximately 4.92 per cent of country's GDP at current prices. Ÿ The State Economy is expected to decline by 6.61 per cent due to COVID-19 effect. Ÿ The sectoral contribution is expected to be 29.77 per cent, 24.80 per cent and 45.43 per cent for Agriculture, Industry and Service sector respectively for 2020-21 at current prices. Ÿ Per Capita Income in 2020-21 is expected to reach at `1,09,386. Ÿ Gross Fixed Capital Formation in 2019-20 is 27.20 per cent of the GSDP at current prices. Ÿ The Wholesale Price Index for all commodities moved from 310.56 in the year 2019 to 330.86 in the year 2020 registering an increase of 6.54 per cent. Ÿ The General Consumer Price Index for Rajasthan stood at 153.06 in the year 2020, which was 144.91 in the year 2019 showing an increase of 5.62 per cent point. With the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, complete sector yet due to lockdown period the overall economy lockdown was imposed in the month of March, 2020 of the state is expected to shrink by 6.21 per cent as which continued for almost half a year either compared to 7.73 per cent of All India level. completely or partially. These lockdowns meant MACRO ECONOMIC AGGREGATES confining millions of citizens to their homes, shutting down business and ceasing almost all the The estimates of State Domestic Product representing economic activity. This in turn has pushed the the value of all goods and services produced within economy into slowdown which has affected the the state is one of the important indicators used to growth of economy. The advance estimates of the measure the growth of the state's economy. These state for the year 2020-21, the agriculture & allied estimates provide a broader picture of outcomes due sector and electricity, gas, water supply & other utility to various policy interventions, investments made services shows a positive growth while other major and opportunities opened-up in the state. sectors shows a declining trend. For making State Domestic Product is a reflection of economic recommendation to restart the economy a special task development of the state and its derivative Per Capita force (Chief Minister’s Rajasthan Economic Income is a suitable measure of the well-being of its Transformation Advisory Council) was constituted. people. The Directorate of Economics & Statistics, This committee has made several recommendation to Rajasthan has been bringing out estimates of State reduce the adverse effect arising due to the pandemic Domestic Product on regular basis and making them and to further boost up the economy. Though post up to date from time to time as per the guidelines and lockdown period recovery has been seen in every methodology provided by the National Accounts 01 Economic Review 2020-21 Division, National Statistical Office, Ministry of of GSDP are prepared on current as well as constant Statistics & Programme Implementation, prices. Government of India. GSDP at Current Prices STATE DOMESTIC PRODUCT (SDP) The estimates of GSDP at current prices are obtained The estimates of State Domestic Product (SDP) of by evaluating the product at current prices Rajasthan are prepared at both current and constant prevailing during the year. The estimates of GSDP prices. The estimates of SDP are prepared for all the at current prices, over the time do not reveal actual sectors of economy both in terms of Gross and Net economic growth because these contain the basis. In the gross estimates, no deduction is made for combined effect of (i) the changes in volume of Consumption of Fixed Capital (CFC) which takes goods and services and (ii) the changes in the prices place in the process of production, whereas in the net of goods and services. estimates, CFC is subtracted from the gross value As per the advance estimates, the nominal GSDP or figures. GSDP at current prices for the year 2020-21 is likely Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) to attain a level of `9.58 lakh crore, as against `9.99 lakh crore in the year 2019-20 showing a decline of Gross State Domestic Product is defined as a 4.11 per cent in 2020-21 against the growth of 8.38 measure, in monetary terms, of volume of all the per cent in the year 2019-20. final goods and services produced within the boundaries of the state during the given period of The estimates of GSDP and its growth are being time, accounted without duplication. The estimates presented in the table 1.1 and figure 1.1. Table: 1.1 Gross State Domestic Product of Rajasthan (`Crore) At Constant (2011-12) Prices At Current Prices Year Variation over Variation over GSDP Previous Year GSDP Previous Year (Per cent) (Per cent) 2015-16 563340 8.02 681482 10.69 2016-17 596746 5.93 760587 11.61 2017-18 624831 4.71 828661 8.95 2018-19 655713 4.94 921789 11.24 2019-20 688714 5.03 998999 8.38 2020-21 (AE) 643222 -6.61 957912 -4.11 For the Year 2018-19 Revised Estimate-II, Year 2019-20- Revised Estimate-I and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates ( AE) GSDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices As per the advance estimates, the real GSDP or GSDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices for the year In order to eliminate the effect of price changes /inflation, the estimates of GSDP are also prepared by 2020-21 is likely to attain a level of `6.43 lakh crore, evaluating the goods and services at the prices as against `6.89 lakh crore in the year 2019-20 prevailing in the fixed year known as base year and showing a decline of 6.61 per cent in the year are known as the estimates of Gross State Domestic 2020-21 against the growth of 5.03 per cent in the Product at constant prices. year 2019-20. 02 Overview of Macro Economic Trends Figure 1.1 Gross State Domestic Product ₹ Crore 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 (AE) At Constant (2011-12) Prices At Current Prices (AE) Advance Estimates GSDP of Rajasthan and GDP of India GSDP of Rajasthan to GDP of All India at current prices and constant (2011-12) prices respectively. At current prices the share of GSDP of Rajasthan to Figure 1.2 shows growth in Gross Domestic Product All India GDP is expected to reach at 4.92 per cent in of Rajasthan and All India at constant (2011-12) the year 2020-21. Table 1.2 and 1.3 shows the share of prices. Table: 1.2 GSDP of Rajasthan to GDP of All India Ratio at Current Prices (`Crore) Rajasthan All India Share of Rajasthan in Year Growth over Growth over GSDP Previous Year GDP Previous Year All India (Per cent) (Per cent) (Per cent) 2015-16 681482 10.69 13771874 10.46 4.95 2016-17 760587 11.61 15391669 11.76 4.94 2017-18 828661 8.95 17098304 11.09 4.85 2018-19 921789 11.24 18971237 10.95 4.86 2019-20 998999 8.38 20339849 7.21 4.91 2020-21(AE) 957912 -4.11 19481975 -4.22 4.92 For the State Year 2018-19 Revised Estimate-II, Year 2019-20- Revised Estimate-I and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates (AE) For All India Year 2019-20- Provisional Estimate and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates (AE) 03 Economic Review 2020-21 Table: 1.3 GSDP of Rajasthan to GDP of All India Ratio at Constant (2011-12) Prices (`Crore) Rajasthan All India Share of Rajasthan Year Growth over Growth over in All India GSDP Previous Year GDP Previous Year (Per cent) (Per cent) (Per cent) 2015-16 563340 8.02 11369493 8.00 4.95 2016-17 596746 5.93 12308193 8.26 4.85 2017-18 624831 4.71 13175160 7.04 4.74 2018-19 655713 4.94 13981426 6.12 4.69 2019-20 688714 5.03 14565951 4.18 4.73 2020-21(AE) 643222 -6.61 13439662 -7.73 4.79 For the State Year 2018-19 Revised Estimate-II, Year 2019-20- Revised Estimate-I and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates (AE) For All India Year 2019-20- Provisional Estimate and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates (AE) Figure 1.2 Growth in Gross Domestic Product of Rajasthan and All India at Constant (2011-12) Prices Per cent 10 5 0 -5 -10 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21(AE) Rajasthan All India (AE)- Advance Estimates Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) 6.58 per cent in the year 2020-21 against the growth of 5.12 per cent in 2019-20. The Consumption of Fixed Capital (CFC) is subtracted from the gross value figures to derive at Net State NSDP at Current Prices Domestic Product. CFC measures the replacement As per the advance estimates, the nominal NSDP at value of that part of the capital stock, which has been Current Prices for the year 2020-21 is likely to attain a used up in the production process during the year. level of `8.63 lakh crore, as against `8.99 lakh crore NSDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2019-20 showing a decline of 4.06 per cent in the year 2020-21 against the growth of 8.45 per cent As per the advance estimates of the year 2020-21, in the year 2019-20.
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