Overview of Macro Economic Trends

CHAPTER 01 OVERVIEW OF MACRO ECONOMIC TRENDS

Ÿ Size of the State Economy is expected to reach at `9.58 lakh crore in 2020-21. Ÿ The GSDP for the year 2020-21 is approximately 4.92 per cent of country's GDP at current prices. Ÿ The State Economy is expected to decline by 6.61 per cent due to COVID-19 effect. Ÿ The sectoral contribution is expected to be 29.77 per cent, 24.80 per cent and 45.43 per cent for Agriculture, Industry and Service sector respectively for 2020-21 at current prices. Ÿ Per Capita Income in 2020-21 is expected to reach at `1,09,386. Ÿ Gross Fixed Capital Formation in 2019-20 is 27.20 per cent of the GSDP at current prices. Ÿ The Wholesale Price Index for all commodities moved from 310.56 in the year 2019 to 330.86 in the year 2020 registering an increase of 6.54 per cent. Ÿ The General Consumer Price Index for Rajasthan stood at 153.06 in the year 2020, which was 144.91 in the year 2019 showing an increase of 5.62 per cent point.

With the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, complete sector yet due to lockdown period the overall economy lockdown was imposed in the month of March, 2020 of the state is expected to shrink by 6.21 per cent as which continued for almost half a year either compared to 7.73 per cent of All India level. completely or partially. These lockdowns meant MACRO ECONOMIC AGGREGATES confining millions of citizens to their homes, shutting down business and ceasing almost all the The estimates of State Domestic Product representing economic activity. This in turn has pushed the the value of all goods and services produced within economy into slowdown which has affected the the state is one of the important indicators used to growth of economy. The advance estimates of the measure the growth of the state's economy. These state for the year 2020-21, the agriculture & allied estimates provide a broader picture of outcomes due sector and electricity, gas, water supply & other utility to various policy interventions, investments made services shows a positive growth while other major and opportunities opened-up in the state. sectors shows a declining trend. For making State Domestic Product is a reflection of economic recommendation to restart the economy a special task development of the state and its derivative Per Capita force (Chief Minister’s Rajasthan Economic Income is a suitable measure of the well-being of its Transformation Advisory Council) was constituted. people. The Directorate of Economics & Statistics, This committee has made several recommendation to Rajasthan has been bringing out estimates of State reduce the adverse effect arising due to the pandemic Domestic Product on regular basis and making them and to further boost up the economy. Though post up to date from time to time as per the guidelines and lockdown period recovery has been seen in every methodology provided by the National Accounts

01 Economic Review 2020-21

Division, National Statistical Office, Ministry of of GSDP are prepared on current as well as constant Statistics & Programme Implementation, prices. Government of India. GSDP at Current Prices STATE DOMESTIC PRODUCT (SDP) The estimates of GSDP at current prices are obtained The estimates of State Domestic Product (SDP) of by evaluating the product at current prices Rajasthan are prepared at both current and constant prevailing during the year. The estimates of GSDP prices. The estimates of SDP are prepared for all the at current prices, over the time do not reveal actual sectors of economy both in terms of Gross and Net economic growth because these contain the basis. In the gross estimates, no deduction is made for combined effect of (i) the changes in volume of Consumption of Fixed Capital (CFC) which takes goods and services and (ii) the changes in the prices place in the process of production, whereas in the net of goods and services. estimates, CFC is subtracted from the gross value As per the advance estimates, the nominal GSDP or figures. GSDP at current prices for the year 2020-21 is likely Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) to attain a level of `9.58 lakh crore, as against `9.99 lakh crore in the year 2019-20 showing a decline of Gross State Domestic Product is defined as a 4.11 per cent in 2020-21 against the growth of 8.38 measure, in monetary terms, of volume of all the per cent in the year 2019-20. final goods and services produced within the boundaries of the state during the given period of The estimates of GSDP and its growth are being time, accounted without duplication. The estimates presented in the table 1.1 and figure 1.1. Table: 1.1 Gross State Domestic Product of Rajasthan (`Crore) At Constant (2011-12) Prices At Current Prices Year Variation over Variation over GSDP Previous Year GSDP Previous Year (Per cent) (Per cent) 2015-16 563340 8.02 681482 10.69 2016-17 596746 5.93 760587 11.61 2017-18 624831 4.71 828661 8.95 2018-19 655713 4.94 921789 11.24 2019-20 688714 5.03 998999 8.38 2020-21 (AE) 643222 -6.61 957912 -4.11 For the Year 2018-19 Revised Estimate-II, Year 2019-20- Revised Estimate-I and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates ( AE) GSDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices As per the advance estimates, the real GSDP or GSDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices for the year In order to eliminate the effect of price changes /inflation, the estimates of GSDP are also prepared by 2020-21 is likely to attain a level of `6.43 lakh crore, evaluating the goods and services at the prices as against `6.89 lakh crore in the year 2019-20 prevailing in the fixed year known as base year and showing a decline of 6.61 per cent in the year are known as the estimates of Gross State Domestic 2020-21 against the growth of 5.03 per cent in the Product at constant prices. year 2019-20. 02 Overview of Macro Economic Trends Figure 1.1 Gross State Domestic Product ₹ Crore 1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 (AE)

At Constant (2011-12) Prices At Current Prices

(AE) Advance Estimates

GSDP of Rajasthan and GDP of India GSDP of Rajasthan to GDP of All India at current prices and constant (2011-12) prices respectively. At current prices the share of GSDP of Rajasthan to Figure 1.2 shows growth in Gross Domestic Product All India GDP is expected to reach at 4.92 per cent in of Rajasthan and All India at constant (2011-12) the year 2020-21. Table 1.2 and 1.3 shows the share of prices.

Table: 1.2 GSDP of Rajasthan to GDP of All India Ratio at Current Prices (`Crore) Rajasthan All India Share of Rajasthan in Year Growth over Growth over GSDP Previous Year GDP Previous Year All India (Per cent) (Per cent) (Per cent)

2015-16 681482 10.69 13771874 10.46 4.95 2016-17 760587 11.61 15391669 11.76 4.94 2017-18 828661 8.95 17098304 11.09 4.85 2018-19 921789 11.24 18971237 10.95 4.86 2019-20 998999 8.38 20339849 7.21 4.91 2020-21(AE) 957912 -4.11 19481975 -4.22 4.92

For the State Year 2018-19 Revised Estimate-II, Year 2019-20- Revised Estimate-I and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates (AE) For All India Year 2019-20- Provisional Estimate and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates (AE)

03 Economic Review 2020-21

Table: 1.3 GSDP of Rajasthan to GDP of All India Ratio at Constant (2011-12) Prices (`Crore) Rajasthan All India Share of Rajasthan Year Growth over Growth over in All India GSDP Previous Year GDP Previous Year (Per cent) (Per cent) (Per cent) 2015-16 563340 8.02 11369493 8.00 4.95 2016-17 596746 5.93 12308193 8.26 4.85 2017-18 624831 4.71 13175160 7.04 4.74 2018-19 655713 4.94 13981426 6.12 4.69 2019-20 688714 5.03 14565951 4.18 4.73 2020-21(AE) 643222 -6.61 13439662 -7.73 4.79 For the State Year 2018-19 Revised Estimate-II, Year 2019-20- Revised Estimate-I and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates (AE) For All India Year 2019-20- Provisional Estimate and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates (AE) Figure 1.2 Growth in Gross Domestic Product of Rajasthan and All India at Constant (2011-12) Prices Per cent 10

-5

-10 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21(AE)

Rajasthan All India

(AE)- Advance Estimates Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) 6.58 per cent in the year 2020-21 against the growth of 5.12 per cent in 2019-20. The Consumption of Fixed Capital (CFC) is subtracted from the gross value figures to derive at Net State NSDP at Current Prices Domestic Product. CFC measures the replacement As per the advance estimates, the nominal NSDP at value of that part of the capital stock, which has been Current Prices for the year 2020-21 is likely to attain a used up in the production process during the year. level of `8.63 lakh crore, as against `8.99 lakh crore NSDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2019-20 showing a decline of 4.06 per cent in the year 2020-21 against the growth of 8.45 per cent As per the advance estimates of the year 2020-21, in the year 2019-20. the real NSDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices is likely to attain a level of `5.70 lakh crore, as against `6.10 The Estimates of NSDP and its growth are being lakh crore in the year 2019-20 showing a decline of presented in the table 1.4 and figure1.3.

04 Overview of Macro Economic Trends

Table: 1.4 Net State Domestic Product of Rajasthan (`Crore) At Constant (2011-12) Prices At Current Prices Year Variation over Variation over NSDP Previous Year NSDP Previous Year (Per cent) (Per cent) 2015-16 501922 7.85 610713 10.73 2016-17 529650 5.52 682626 11.78 2017-18 554429 4.68 744622 9.08 2018-19 580594 4.72 829068 11.34 2019-20 610292 5.12 899143 8.45 2020-21 (AE) 570143 -6.58 862633 -4.06 For the Year 2018-19 Revised Estimate-II, Year 2019-20- Revised Estimate-I and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates (AE)

Figure 1.3 Net State Domestic Product

₹ Crore 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 (AE)

At Constant (2011-12) Prices At Current Prices

(AE) – Advance Estimates GROSS STATE VALUE ADDED (GSVA) in Agriculture, -7.50 per cent in Industry and -10.95 per cent in Service sector in the year 2020-21 over GSVA at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices 2019-20. The real GSVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices for The composition of Gross State Value Added at the year 2020-21 is likely to attain a level of ₹6.01 lakh crore, as against ₹6.40 lakh crore for the year 2019-20 constant (2011-12) basic prices by broad sectors of showing a decrease of 6.11 per cent in 2020-21 against the economy from the year 2015-16 onwards, is given the growth of 4.90 per cent in 2019-20. The in the following table 1.5 and for the year 2011-12 and corresponding sectoral growth rates are 3.45 per cent 2020-21 in figure 1.4.

05 Economic Review 2020-21 Table 1.5 Sector wise Gross State Value Added at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices (`Crore) Sector/Years Agriculture Industries Services GSVA 136858.50 176053.37 215985.01 528896.88 2015-16 (25.88) (33.29) (40.83) (100) 148788.69 186778.26 227530.26 563097.21 2016-17 (26.42) (33.17) (40.41) (100) 148653.76 191895.58 246245.27 586794.61 2017-18 (25.33) (32.70) (41.97) (100) 156140.70 179842.22 273774.04 609756.97 2018-19 (25.61) (29.49) (44.90) (100) 170988.06 182737.41 285914.48 639639.95 2019-20 (26.73) (28.57) (44.70) (100) 176884.10 169028.25 254614.71 600527.06 2020-21 (AE) (29.45) (28.15) (42.40) (100) Total may not tally due to rounding off. Figures shown in brackets denote percentage contribution to Gross State Value Added at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices. For the Year 2018-19 Revised Estimate-II, Year 2019-20- Revised Estimate-I and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates (AE) Figure 1.4

Sectoral Distribution of Gross State Value Added at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices

28.56 29.45 Agriculture 38.75 42.40 Industries Services

32.69 28.15

2011-12 2020-21 (AE)

(AE)- Advance Estimates Certain distinct characteristics of the sector wise in the year 2011-12. The GSVA of this sector is likely Gross State Value Added at Constant (2011-12) to attain a level of `1,76,884 crore in the year 2020-21 Basic prices are: showing a positive growth of 3.45 per cent over The contribution of agriculture sector, which includes previous year. crops, livestock, forestry and fishing sector increased to The contribution of industries sector which includes 29.45 per cent in the year 2020-21 from 28.56 per cent mining, manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply 06 Overview of Macro Economic Trends

& remedial services and construction sector is GSVA of this sector is likely to attain a level of expected to decrease to 28.15 per cent in the year `2,54,615 crore in the year 2020-21 showing a 2020-21 from 32.69 per cent in the year 2011-12. The decline of 10.95 per cent over previous year. GSVA of this sector is likely to attain a level of Sector wise Growth in Different Sectors of the `1,69,028 crore in the year 2020-21 showing a Economy decline of 7.50 per cent over previous year. Gross State Domestic Product at an aggregate level is The contribution of service sector which includes expected to decline by 6.61 per cent in 2020-21 at railways, other transport, storage, communication, constant (2011-12) prices. Growth rate in the year trade, hotels & restaurant, real estate, ownership of 2020-21 for agricultural and allied sector is expected dwellings, public administration, financial and to grow by 3.45 per cent while industry sector and service sector are expected to decline by 7.50 and other services increased to 42.40 per cent in the year 10.95 per cent respectively. Sector wise growth rate is 2020-21 from 38.75 per cent in the year 2011-12. The shown in table 1.6. Table 1.6 Sector Wise Growth Rate at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices Years/Sectors 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Agriculture 8.72 -0.09 5.04 9.51 3.45 Industry 6.09 2.74 -6.28 1.61 -7.50 Services 5.35 8.23 11.18 4.43 -10.95 For the Year 2018-19 Revised Estimate-II, Year 2019-20- Revised Estimate-I and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates (AE)

GSVA at Current Basic Prices Supply & Other Utility Services and Construction contributed 32.69 per cent in the total GSVA in the The nominal GSVA at current basic prices for the year year 2011-12 which is likely to decline to 24.80 per 2020-21 is likely to attain a level of `8.99 lakh crore, cent during 2020-21. The Service Sector, comprising as against `9.38 lakh crore in the year 2019-20 of Trade, Hotels & Restaurants, Transport, Storage & showing a decline of 4.08 per cent in the year 2020-21 Communication, Financial Services, Real estate, against the growth of 8.34 per cent in the year Ownership of dwellings & Professional Services, 2019-20. The corresponding sectoral growth are 6.52 Public Administration and Other Services are the per cent in Agriculture, -8.62 per cent in Industry major contributor in the economy of Rajasthan with and -7.60 per cent in Service sector in the year 2020-21 the contribution of 38.75 per cent in the total GSVA over the year 2019-20. during 2011-12 and its contribution is expected to be The composition of Gross State Value Added by broad 45.43 per cent during 2020-21. sectors of the economy at current basic prices from the Net State Value Added at Constant (2011-12) Basic year 2015-16 onwards is given in the table 1.7. Prices The analysis of sectoral composition of Gross State The real NSVA at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices for Value Added (GSVA) at current prices reveals that there is an increase in the contribution of Agricultural the year 2020-21 is likely to attain a level of `5.27 Sector (viz: Crops, Livestock, Forestry & Logging lakh crore, as against `5.61 lakh crore for the year and Fishing) in the economy of Rajasthan from year 2019-20 showing a decline of 6.02 per cent in 2020-21 2011-12 to 2020-21. The contribution of the against the growth of 4.97 per cent in the year 2019-20. Agriculture Sector, which was 28.56 per cent during The corresponding sectoral growth rates are 3.53 per 2011-12, is likely to be increase at 29.77 per cent in cent in Agriculture, -8.01 per cent in Industry and 2020-21. The Industry Sector comprising of Mining -10.85 per cent in Service sector in the year 2020-21 & Quarrying, Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water over 2019-20.

07 Economic Review 2020-21

The composition of Net State Value Added at constant economy from the year 2015-16 onwards, is given in (2011-12) Basic Prices by broad sectors of the the table 1.8. Table 1.7 Sector wise Gross State Value Added at Basic Current Prices (`Crore) Sector/Years Agriculture Industries Services GSVA 167705.47 199053.59 276201.34 642960.40 2015-16 (26.08) (30.96) (42.96) (100) 202318.63 212677.24 306975.95 721971.82 2016-17 (28.02) (29.46) (42.52) (100) 205871.85 230205.18 347742.24 783819.26 2017-18 (26.26) (29.37) (44.37) (100) 222309.16 236006.38 407185.89 865501.43 2018-19 (25.69) (27.27) (47.04) (100) 251341.01 244054.15 442250.24 937645.40 2019-20 (26.80) (26.03) (47.17) (100) 267718.24 223028.47 408633.89 899380.60 2020-21 (AE) (29.77) (24.80) (45.43) (100) Total may not tally due to rounding off. Figures shown in brackets denote percentage contribution to Gross State Value Added at Basic Current Prices. For the Year 2018-19 Revised Estimate-II, Year 2019-20- Revised Estimate-I and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates (AE) Table 1.8 Sector wise Net State Value Added at constant (2011-12) Basic Prices (`Crore)

Sector/Years Agriculture Industries Services NSVA 127538.77 148664.29 191275.80 467478.86 2015-16 (27.28) (31.80) (40.92) (100) 138988.67 156852.17 200161.24 496002.08 2016-17 (28.02) (31.63) (40.35) (100) 138340.59 159996.93 218055.27 516392.79 2017-18 (26.79) (30.98) (42.23) (100) 145361.12 147529.20 241747.58 534637.90 2018-19 (27.19) (27.59) (45.22) (100) 159038.09 149808.90 252370.84 561217.83 2019-20 (28.34) (26.69) (44.97) (100) 164649.84 137802.18 224996.42 527448.43 2020-21 (AE) (31.21) (26.13) (42.66) (100) Total may not tally due to rounding off. Figures shown in brackets denote percentage contribution to Net State Value Added at constant (2011-12) Basic Prices. For the Year 2018-19 Revised Estimate-II, Year 2019-20- Revised Estimate-I and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates (AE) Net State Value Added at Current Basic Prices crore, as against `8.38 lakh crore for the year 2019-20 The nominal NSVA at Current Basic Prices for the showing a decline of 4.02 per cent in 2020-21 against year 2020-21 is likely to attain a level of `8.04 lakh the growth 8.41 per cent in the year 2019-20. The

08 Overview of Macro Economic Trends corresponding sectoral growth rates are 6.47 per cent The composition of Net State Value Added by broad in Agriculture, -8.86 per cent in Industry and -7.68 per sectors of the economy at current prices from the year cent in Service sector in the year 2020-21 over 2019-20. 2015-16 onwards, is depicted in the table 1.9. Table 1.9 Sector wise Net State Value Added at Basic Current Prices (`Crore) Sector/Years Agriculture Industries Services NSVA 155956.00 168127.04 248107.88 572190.92 2015-16 (27.26) (29.38) (43.36) (100) 189536.77 178865.75 275608.18 644010.71 2016-17 (29.43) (27.77) (42.80) (100) 192061.33 193381.94 314336.66 699779.92 2017-18 (27.45) (27.63) (44.92) (100) 207401.87 197650.46 367728.02 772780.36 2018-19 (26.84) (25.58) (47.58) (100) 233899.21 204352.01 399538.12 837789.34 2019-20 (27.92) (24.39) (47.69) (100) 249023.56 186241.16 368836.42 804101.14 2020-21 (AE) (30.97) (23.16) (45.87) (100) Total may not tally due to rounding off. Figures shown in brackets denote percentage contribution to Net State Value Added at Basic Current Prices. For the Year 2018-19 Revised Estimate-II, Year 2019-20- Revised Estimate-I and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates (AE) PER CAPITA INCOME (PCI) the year 2019-20, showing a decline of 7.77 per cent in 2020-21 over the previous year 2019-20. As per the The Per Capita Income is derived by dividing the Net advance estimates, the per capita income at current State Domestic product by the mid year's total prices for the year 2020-21 is estimated to be `1,09,386 population of the State. Per capita Income is a pointer as compared to `1,15,492 for the year 2019-20 for standard of living and the well-being of people. As registering a decline of 5.29 per cent in 2020-21 over per the advance estimates, the per capita income at the previous year 2019-20. The Per Capita Income of constant (2011-12) prices for the year 2020-21 is Rajasthan and All India at Constant (2011-12) Prices are estimated to be `72,297 as compared to `78,390 for depicted in table 1.10 and figure 1.5.

Table: 1.10 Per Capita Income of Rajasthan and All India at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices (`) Rajasthan All India Year Variation over Variation over Per Capita Income Previous Year Per Capita Income Previous Year (Per cent) (Per cent) 2015-16 68565 6.31 77659 6.67 2016-17 71324 4.02 83003 6.88 2017-18 73109 2.50 87828 5.81 2018-19 75555 3.35 92085 4.85 2019-20 78390 3.75 94954 3.12 2020-21 (AE) 72297 -7.77 86456 -8.95 For the State Year 2018-19 Revised Estimate-II, Year 2019-20- Revised Estimate-I and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates (AE) For All India Year 2019-20- Provisional Estimate and Year 2020-21 Advance Estimates (AE)

09 Economic Review 2020-21 Figure 1.5

Per Capita Income of Rajasthan and All India at Constant (2011-12) Prices ₹

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 (AE)

Rajasthan All India

(AE)- Advance Estimates The Per Capita Income of Rajasthan and All India at Current Prices are depiceted in table 1.11 and figure 1.6.

Table: 1.11 Per Capita Income of Rajasthan and All India at Basic Current Prices (`) Rajasthan All India

Year Variation over Variation over Per Capita Per Capita Income Previous Year Previous Year Income (Per cent) (Per cent)

2015-16 83426 9.16 94797 9.40

2016-17 91924 10.19 104880 10.64

2017-18 98188 6.82 115293 9.93

2018-19 107890 9.88 126521 9.74

2019-20 115492 7.05 134226 6.09

2020-21 (AE) 109386 -5.29 126968 -5.41

10 Overview of Macro Economic Trends

Figure 1.6 Per Capita Income of Rajasthan and All India at Current Prices ₹ 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 (AE)

Rajasthan All India

(AE)- Advance Estimates

GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION which is 27.20 per cent of the GSDP (`9,98,999 (GFCF) crore). The GFCF in the year 2019-20 increased by 2.67 per cent over the previous year 2018-19.The The Gross Fixed Capital Formation is measured by Gross Fixed Capital Formation in the State since the the total value of a producer's acquisition less disposal year 2015-16 has been shown table 1.12 and figure of fixed assets during the accounting period plus 1.7. The contribution of Private sector and Public certain additions to the value of non-produced assets sector in Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) for realized by the productive activity of institutional units. the year 2019-20 are on an average 74.21 and 25.79 At the end of the year 2019-20, the total assets at per cent respectively. Sector wise Gross Fixed Capital current prices are estimated to be `2,71,696 crore, Formation since 2015-16 is shown in the table 1.13.

Table-1.12 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (Provisional) (`Crore)

Sector/Year 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

Public 56170 59279 61227 66819 70059

Private 147318 152707 175383 197803 201637

Total 203488 211986 236610 264622 271696

11 Economic Review 2020-21 Figure 1.7

Per cent Gross Fixed Capital Formation (Provisional) 100

0 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

Private Public

Table-1.13 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (Provisional) (`Crore) S.No. Industry 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 1 Agriculture 7836 8994 10260 11451 12426 2 Forestry 205 195 177 112 120 3 Fishing 1 4 4 2 3 4 Mining 2619 2646 2729 2834 2738 5 Manufacturing (Reg.) 11033 12156 15420 15564 15636 6 Construction 67769 70779 77603 90862 93594 7 Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 18458 17942 14826 16947 17851 8 Railways 1269 971 1185 1373 1200 9 Communication 8287 7663 14352 15283 12433

Manufacturing (Un-Reg.), Trade, 10 Hotels, Restaurant, Transport and 11169 8423 11053 10312 10040 Other Services

11 Banking & Insurance 1038 801 517 1530 949 12 Real Estate 50999 52843 57908 63322 66877 13 Public Administration 22806 28568 30577 35031 37829 Total 203488 211986 236610 264622 271696

Total may not tally due to rounding off. 12 Overview of Macro Economic Trends

PRICES STATISTICS government and is also used by financial institutions, industries and business circles. Besides monitoring Prices tend to change over time as well as across the price changes in the economy, Wholesale Price geographical areas due to various economic, social Index is also used as an indicator in computation of and political factors. Since prices influence various Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) at constant economic decisions, particularly financial prices. It also helps in monitoring changes in relative monitoring of price change is extremely important as prices of different groups of commodities like they have direct bearing on economic policy and primary articles, agricultural commodities, raw planning. The primary tool for monitoring these material, industrial products, food and other non-food changes is the price index. Price Index measures items. Price index helps in comparative study of relative change in the price levels of commodities or changes of prices at national and global level. services in a region during a given period of time. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Rajasthan government releases the WPI on monthly Index (WPI), are two important indices which basis. It covers 154 commodities, of which 75 are measure the prices at retail and wholesale level from 'Primary Articles' group, 69 from respectively. 'Manufactured Products' group and 10 from 'Fuel Price Statistics in Rajasthan and Power' group. The weight assigned to 'Primary Articles' group is 33.894, for 'Manufactured The Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES) Products' group, it is 49.853 and for 'Fuel and has been collecting the wholesale and retail prices of Power' group, it is16.253. the essential commodities regularly, since 1957 from selected centres across the State on weekly basis. Also The Wholesale Price Index for 'All Commodities' the prices of livestock products, by-products, rates for moved from 310.56 in the year 2019 to 330.86 in the the construction material used in building and labour year of 2020, registered an increase of 6.54 per cent. It wages are collected from all districts of the state. On increased from 317.48 to 331.49 for Primary Articles, the basis of wholesale prices, monthly wholesale from 461.22 to 509.26 for Fuel, Power, Light and price indices are being prepared. The Consumer Price Lubricants and from 256.74 to 272.27 for Indices for industrial workers are prepared and Manufactured Products group during the year. The released by the Labour Bureau, Shimla. index of Primary Articles, Fuel, Power, Light & Lubricants and Manufactured Products Group Wholesale Price Index (WPI) of Rajasthan (Base registered an increase of 4.41, 10.42 and 6.05 per cent Year 1999-2000=100) over the previous year respectively. The All India The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is the only general index of WPI move from 121.2 in the year 2019 to index capturing price movements in a comprehensive 121.7 in the year 2020 it registered an average way at the overall economic level and is an indicator increase of 0.41 per cent respectively. The Wholesale of movement in prices of commodities in all trades Price Index under major commodity groups during and transactions. Wholesale Price Index serves as an the year 2015 to 2020 and percentage variation over important determinant in formulation of trade, fiscal, the previous years is given in the following tables monetary and other economic policies by the 1.14 & 1.15 and figure 1.8 & 1.9. Table 1.14 Wholesale Price Index of Rajasthan (Base year 1999-2000 = 100) Annual Average Index S. No. Major Groups 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1 Primary Articles 286.93 301.94 294.05 299.08 317.48 331.49 (a) Agricultural Ariticles 287.50 303.29 292.40 295.87 314.89 328.58 13 Economic Review 2020-21

Annual Average Index S. No. Major Groups 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (b) Minerals 282.62 291.72 306.55 314.95 337.05 353.47 Fuel, Power, Light and 2 374.32 391.74 428.71 463.78 461.22 509.26 Lubricants 3 Manufactured Products 229.99 233.89 243.61 247.78 256.74 272.27 All Commodities 272.75 282.61 290.79 300.27 310.56 330.86 (April & May, 2020 index not release due to COVID-19 pandemic)

Table 1.15 Groupwise Wholesale Price Index variations in the State (Base year 1999-2000 = 100)

S. Annual Average Per cent Variation (Year to Year basis) Major Groups No. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1 Primary Articles 5.97 5.23 -2.61 1.71 6.15 4.41 (a) Agricultural Articles 5.70 5.49 -3.59 1.19 6.43 4.35 (b) Minerals 8.08 3.22 5.08 2.74 7.02 4.87 2 Fuel, Power, Light and Lubricants -0.75 4.65 9.44 8.18 -0.55 10.42 3 Manufactured Products 0.80 1.70 4.16 1.71 3.62 6.05 All Commodities 2.22 3.62 2.89 3.26 3.43 6.54

(April & May,2020 index not release due to COVID-19 pandemic)

Figure 1.8 (Base year 1999-2000 = 100) Wholesale Price Index of Rajasthan (Groupwise) 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Primary Articles Fuel, Power, Light and Lubricants Manufactured Products All Commodities (April & May, 2020 index not release due to COVID-19 pandemic)

14 Overview of Macro Economic Trends

Figure 1.9 (Base year 1999-2000 = 100) Groupwise Wholesale Price Index variations in the State 12

6 Primary Articles 4 Fuel, Power, Light and Lubricants Manufactured Products 2 All Commodities 0

-2

-4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(April & May, 2020 index not release due to COVID-19 pandemic) Consumer Price Index (CPI) Alwar Centre is included in place of Ajmer Centre in the state. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is designed to measure the changes over time in general level of retail prices Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers of selected goods and services that households (CPI-IW) purchase for the purpose of consumption. Such The Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers changes affect the real purchasing power of (CPI-IW) measures the temporal change in the retail consumers income and their welfare. As this index prices of a fixed basket of goods and services captures the movement in prices for each and every consumed by an average working class family and consumer, the Government focuses more on thus, is an important indicator of the change in Consumer Price Index (CPI) than Wholesale Price consumption level of average industrial worker in the index (WPI) inflation. Four different types of country. The target groups of CPI-IW are workers of Consumer Price Indices are being constructed every factories, mining, plantations, motor transport, ports month. They are Consumer Price Index for (a) and docks, railways and electricity production & Industrial Workers (CPI-IW), (b) Agricultural Labourers (CPI-AL), (c) Rural Labourers (CPI-RL), distribution establishments. This Index is mainly used and (d) Rural and Urban (CPI-R&U). The first three for determination of Dearness Allowance (DA) for indices are constructed and released by the Labour the employees in both the public and private sectors. Bureau, Shimla and the fourth by the National Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers Statistical Office (NSO), New Delhi. The Consumer (CPI-IW) (Base Year 2001=100) : The consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers was released on the price indices for industrial workers (CPI-IW) (Base base year 2001=100 till August, 2020 and currently Year 2001=100) were preparing and released by the Consumer Price Index are being released from Labour Bureau, Shimla for Jaipur, Ajmer and September, 2020 on the base year 2016=100, the Bhilwara centres of the State. At the national level

15 Economic Review 2020-21

CPI (IW) for central series is constructed for 78 Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers selected industrially developed centres across the (CPI-IW) (Base Year 2016=100) : Presently, the country, with three of these centres based in Consumer Price Index is being released by Labour Rajasthan (Jaipur, Ajmer and Bhilwara). A rising Bureau, Shimla from the month of September 2020 as trend in consumer prices continued to be observed per the new base year 2016=100, which includes during the year 2020. At the All India level Alwar centre in place of Ajmer centre in the state. At annualized CPI (IW) moved to 331 in August, 2020 Alwar, Bhilwara and Jaipur centre, the index for the from 317 as on December, 2019. The annual average month of December, 2020 stood at 118.5, 115.9 and rate of inflation till August, 2020 was 4.42 per cent 113.5 respectively, which were 118.9, 116.3 and whereas it was 7.46 per cent in the previous year. 114.2 in November, 2020. All India General The General Index of Consumer Price for the year Consumer Price index for the month of December, 2020 upto August, 2020 recorded an increase of 2020 stood at 118.8 which was 119.9 in the month of 3.83 per cent at Jaipur centre, 2.74 per cent at Ajmer November, 2020. Consumer Price Indices for all the centre and 3.72 per cent at Bhilwara centre over the commodity groups for Jaipur, Ajmer and Bhilwara previous year. centres are summarized in the table 1.16 Table 1.16 Groupwise Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (Base Year 2001 = 100)

Bhilwara Jaipur Centre Per cent Ajmer Centre Per cent Per cent Centre S. N. Group Variation Variation Variation over 2019 over 2019 over 2019 2019 2020* 2019 2020* 2019 2020*

1 Food 312 323 3.53 320 333 4.06 319 332 4.08

Pan, Supari, 2 Tobacco & 382 396 3.66 431 443 2.78 401 403 0.50 Intoxicant

3 Fuel & Light 224 234 4.46 272 290 6.62 321 327 1.87

4 Housing 388 410 5.67 420 432 2.86 261 283 8.43

Clothing, Bedding 5 236 237 0.42 214 201 -6.07 206 207 0.49 & Footwear

6 Miscellaneous 276 280 1.45 205 207 0.98 261 265 1.53

General Index 313 325 3.83 292 300 2.74 296 307 3.72

*Up to Aug., 2020 It is revealed from the table that the general index average year wise General Consumer Price Indices registered an increase in the year 2020 (Upto (Base year 2001=100) for Jaipur, Ajmer, Bhilwara and Aug.,2020) over the year 2019 at all the 3 centres. The All India since year 2015 are given in table 1.17

16 Overview of Macro Economic Trends

Table 1.17 Year wise Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (Base year 2001 = 100) Jaipur Ajmer Bhilwara All India Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent variation variation variation variation Year Index over Index over Index over Index over previous previous previous previous year year year year 2015 245 2.94 248 3.33 259 5.71 261 5.67 2016 257 4.90 256 3.23 269 3.86 274 4.98 2017 268 4.28 260 1.56 274 1.86 281 2.55 2018 282 5.22 272 4.62 278 1.46 295 4.98 2019 313 10.99 292 7.35 296 6.47 317 7.46 2020* 325 3.83 300 2.74 307 3.72 331 4.42

*Upto August, 2020 Consumer Price Index for Agriculture Labourers Labour Bureau, Shimla with 1986-87 as the base year. (CPI-AL) (Base 1986-87=100) The indices for Rajasthan and All India, since the year The Consumer Price Index for the Agricultural 2016-17 to 2020-21 are given in table 1.18 and figure Labourers & Rural Labourers is also prepared by the 1.10

Table 1.18 General Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers Base year 1986-87=100 (Agriculture year July to June)

Rajasthan All India Year Food group General Index Food group General Index

2016-17 938 960 841 873

2017-18 899 950 846 893

2018-19 951 997 863 920

2019-20 1058 1083 955 999

2020-21* 1057 1094 1002 1041

* Average of months (July to December, 2020)

17 Economic Review 2020-21 Figure 1.10 Base year 1986-87=100 (Agriculture year July to June) General Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers

1200

1100

1000

900

800 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21*

Rajasthan General Index All India General Index

* Average of months (July to December, 2020)

General Consumer Price Index (Rural, Urban & General Consumer Price Indices (CPI) with base 2012 Combined) (Base Year 2012=100) as base year for all India and States/UTs separately for Rural, Urban and Combined every month since The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of January, 2011. The details of general index from year Statistics & Programme Implementation releases 2016 to 2020 are given in the table 1.19. Table 1.19 General Consumer Price Index Numbers for Rural, Urban & Combined (Base year 2012=100) Rajasthan All India S. No. Year Rural Urban Combined Rural Urban Combined 1 2016 132.79 127.92 131.07 131.28 126.83 129.20 2 2017 137.29 132.96 135.73 135.63 131.03 133.50 3 2018 139.33 138.56 139.05 140.73 136.50 138.77 4 2019 145.33 144.11 144.91 144.89 142.82 143.93 5 2020* 153.30 152.68 153.06 154.18 151.93 153.12 * Average of months (January to November, 2020) and Index of Rajasthan (March to May, 2020) not release due to COVID-19 pandemic *****