Table of Contents Editor’s Note .................................................................................................................................... 2 FOCUS : SECURITY PARADIGM IN SOUTH ASIA Resurgent ISIS and The Threat to South Asia .................................................. Dr Adil Rasheed 3 Maritime Security in Bay of Bengal : Potential Challenges and Opportunities ........................... Syed Munir Khasru and Riasat Noor 13 Gulf Imbroglio: - Changing GE-OIL-ITICS .............................................. Wg Cdr Vikas Kalyani 22 Afghanistan: Continuing Mayhems and an Uncertain Future .....................Lt Gen Kamal Davar 28 Tackling Naxalism: A New Approach .................................................. Shubhranshu Choudhary 35 Calibrating the Peace building Process : A Case Study of Manipur .............Soumya Chaturvedi 41 SPECIAL ARTICLE India-Japan: The Emergence of Strategic Relations (2015-2019) .............................. Rami Desai 49 REPORT 4th Indian Ocean Conference - IOC 2019 .........................................................Team IOC, 2019 59 5th Dharma Dhamma Conference 2019 ......................... Siddharth Singh and Ngawang Hardy 70 BOOK REVIEW Raghuvendra Tanwar's ‘Be Clear, Kashmir will Vote for India’ Jammu & Kashmir 1947-1953............................................................................ Nidhi Bahuguna 76 India Foundation Journal, November-December 2019 {1} EDITOR'S NOTE India Of Black Swans and Grey Rhinos Foundation Asia is a veritable cauldron of conflict. While the Af-Pak region continues to Journal remain the epicentre of terrorism, conflict in the Gulf now has increasingly worrying dimensions. Besides the Af-Pak region, South Asia appears more stable, but random acts of Islamic terrorism occasionally come to the fore, as in the case of the Easter bombings in Sri Lanka. In India, the overall security environment remains stable, with violence levels in the Northeastern region as also areas impacted by Left Vol. VII Wing Extremism dipping considerably. Kashmir appears stable after the abrogation Issue No.6 of Article 35A and some provisions of Article 370. Within the ASEAN countries, the Islamic State (Daesh) has made limited inroads into Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. Terror groups are November-December increasingly decentralised, use sleeper cells and resort to lone-wolf attacks using 2019 social media and other forms of advanced technology in the process of recruitment, and pose what may be termed as “third-generation threats”. Further East, China continues to deal with its Uighur Muslim population in Xinjiang in a high handed fashion which may invite a future blowback. Tibet too is restive, though both Editor Xinjiang and Tibet are relatively stable as of now. China is also facing mass Maj Gen (Dr) Dhruv C Katoch protests in Hong Kong over some of its policies. The above violence levels are localised and are being contained by the respective governments. However, of deep concern is the happenings in the Gulf, Assistant Editor especially in respect of targeting of oil facilities. The war in Yemen has been B. Shruti Rao ongoing for a few years now, with the Saudi coalition forces trying to dislodge the Houthis who are backed by Iran. If the situation gets out of hand, it could lead to regional instability with the supply of oil becoming the critical determinant. The Saudi oil facilities were attacked by the Houthis (as claimed by them, though evidently, the Houthis would have been supported by external power). The attack crippled the Saudi oil supply by 50 per cent for over a month until the supply was Publisher eventually restored. The ferocity, suddenness and pinpoint accuracy of the attack led many to call it a Black Swan event, but a cursory analysis points otherwise. India Foundation Over the past two years, the Houthis have carried out over 18 attacks on Saudi New Delhi facilities and so an attack on Aramco should not have come as a surprise. It was thus a Grey Rhino event—one that could have been foreseen but was ignored. E-mail The danger signals are now all around us. Besides the attack on Aramco, [email protected] ships carrying oil have also been targeted. While regional conflicts can be Website contained, a conflict which results in the antagonists attacking each other’s oil www.indiafoundation.in facilities could be dangerous, especially if it leads to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That would be disastrous for the Asian economies, especially for India and could spell the end of the much-heralded Asian century. for private circulation only {2}{2} India Foundation Journal, November-December 2019 FOCUS Resurgent ISIS and The Threat to South Asia Dr Adil Rasheed* hey scorched the snake, but could not kill Method in the Mayhem it! In late February this year, US President According to the ISW report, ISIS was quick TDonald Trump asserted that the US had to assess that it would be difficult to stop Operation defeated “100 percent of the (ISIS) caliphate”1. Inherent Resolve (OIR) launched by the Combined However, many US officials, like National Security Joint Task Force (CJTF) from taking over Mosul Advisor John Bolton, disagreed with him then and and then Raqqa back in mid-2017. Therefore, ISIS acknowledged that the monstrosity was not carefully sidestepped the military juggernaut and defeated, but had slithered away into the desert focused instead on arranging safe havens for its with a large portion of its wealth, weaponry and forces fleeing from the battlefield in remote parts warriors still intact to fight another day.2,3 of Iraq and Syria. This fact has been reiterated in a recent report Thus, when the US and ISF troops laid a siege by the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Mosul, they remained unaware that ISIS fighters that claims that ISIS purposely retreated during were already escaping the city by way of a wide the US-led campaign from Mosul, Raqqa, and other and complex network of tunnels. Thus, US military important Syrian cities in order to relocate its experts aver: “ISIS fighters likely went to ground fighters and their families to remote ‘support zones’ near Mosul; regrouped in Tel Afar in Iraq or the in Iraq and Syria4. Intelligence officials of the US- Middle Euphrates River Valley in Syria; or led international coalition also claim that ISIS relocated to Hawija, Iraq”.7 currently sits on a “mountain of stolen cash and In order to facilitate this process of troop gold” (estimated by independent experts to total dispersal, ISIS even allowed civilians to leave the about USD 400 million)5, which its leaders were cities in large numbers, so that their fighters could able to stash away before ceding territory to blend with the crowds. Specific patterns have been international forces. found in the mode of the migrants’ dispersal and In fact, far from being vanquished in Iraq and destinations, which shows that ISIS “deliberately Syria, ISIS is said to be staging resurgence now planted fighters and ideologically committed through a “capable insurgency”6. In addition, the supporters (among the civilians) across both Iraq transnational menace has increased its activities and Syria”.8 in other parts of the world and has even conducted With the recapture of Mosul and Raqqa, US one of its worst terrorist strikes on Easter Sunday officials appeared to grow complacent and believed in Sri Lanka (21 April 2019), which claimed over that the ISIS had given up the fight. In October 260 lives. 2017, Lt. Gen. Paul Funk of the US military, then *Dr Adil Rasheed is Research Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). He is author of the book ISIS: Race to Armageddon India Foundation Journal, November-December 2019 {3} serving as CJTF-OIR commander, surmised: the elections in provinces of southern Iraq and the “They’re (ISIS) giving up … [and] their leaders city of Basra, Iraqi forces were taken away from are abandoning them.”9 Even the then-secretary ISIS-infested areas in the west of the country. ISIS of defense James Mattis said: “The caliphate is on fighters on the run took full advantage of the the run, we’re breaking them.”10 situation as they regrouped and planned the launch These statements of triumph reflected the of a new insurgency. initial enthusiasm of CJTF-OIR forces over Thus, it was embarrassing that by December liberating cities from ISIS control. However, it was 2018, when Iraqi government was indulging in only later that the US began to understand the error anniversary celebrations of its ‘victory’ over ISIS, in its assessment. By February 2018, then secretary reports were streaming in that members of the of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen noted that supposedly defunct terror group were carrying out ISIS fighters in Syria were “going underground, guerrilla attacks, bombings, murders, kidnappings dispersing to other safe havens, including on the and road blockages across various governorates internet, and returning to their home countries.”11 of the country. Even the Iraqi government took its eyes off Veteran leader of the Kurdish Democratic the ball after the recapture of Mosul in late 2017, Party Masoud Barzani issued a dire warning to as its focus shifted towards the referendum Iraq around that time: “Da’esh (ISIS) has returned conducted by Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government to a lot of the areas much worse than before.”12 (KRG) for breaking away from Iraq in September He then gave names of few of the governorates of that year. The crisis disrupted coordination