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i, lr l.l ruesday THE MIDDLElrr EAST SPEAKS FOR ISELF zzocLrsst MIDEAST & PALESTINE 15 Arab FMs to meet this week in Damascus @.rj) Akhbar al-Klaleej: "Israel's secret sabotage plans" (0.,t) Palestinian leftists join Islamists in opposing the talks at Madrid otzt

ISRAEL Will Shamir lead the delegation to Madrid? o.zt

Annexin g l3%o of West Bank keeps most settlers in Israel rpst Sh.-

tttu.t-etub cor of fund s @.2)

JORDAN "At Madrid: Time to end the games that kill" @st

LEBANON French press for parliamentary elections in talks with Hrawi ozzt

Freed US hostage flies to Germany for family reunion rpzrr

IRAQ Harvard team warns that thousands will die without imported food, medicine and parts rpzet

TURKEY Demirel ponders coalition options rr.zzr

Vol. 5, No. 2O5 Mfffir Publisher MediaGen (UK) Limited ISRAEL Directors F.C. Najia and M.S. Sabbagh Clnnces of swnmit tall

Co.Editor-in-Chief (USA) Imad Shehadeh Will Shamir lead the

Assistant Editors delegation to Madrid? Lydia Georgi, Najm Jarrah

Administration Man ager Micheline Hazou Eight days before the Middle East peace conference in Madrid, Israel has still to decide who will lead its delegation. Subscriptions Coordinator The decision is likely to be taken on Wednesday, with Prime Minister Claude Khoury Yitzhak Shamir still not ruling out the possibility of his own attendance. There is also growing speculation that Egyptian President Hosni Middle East Correspondents Mubarak will attend the conference, thus raising tle chances of the two SalamehNe'mat Anunan leaders holding their first summit meeting. Z.Mansotx, Beirut In an interview this week, Mubarak said he would meet Shamir if that Hani ShulaallalL Cairo would conribute !o peace. F. Sayegh, Danwscus Tuesday's lerusakm Post said Shamir's presence alongside Presidens Gulay Eskikay a, I st anb ul George Bush and Mikhail Gorbachev heightens the possibility that Jordan's Daoud Kuttab, J er us al ern King Hussein may also be asked to come to Madrid. Elizabetlr Ep,p,l, J er us al e m Abdul Jalil Mustafl Kuwait Syrian President Hafez Assad has so far spurned efforts by Secretary of Mohammed Omar Ahmad, M cmatna State James Baker o bring him to tre conference. Abdallah ash-Shihi, R iy adh Israeli officials say the U.S. is working behind the scenes to ensure that Khosrow Soltani, T ehr an each delegation is represented by its lop leaders, so as to generate excitement about a tuming point oward peace. Mideast Mirror "The prime minister is considering whether to attend," Shamir aide is a daily digest (Monday to Friday) Yossi Ahimeir said Monday night. of the rnajor business arul political "One reason for going is that Bush and Gorbachev will be tlrere. But the news anl views in the Arabic, prime minister believes ttre major event is not the opening ceremony, but Ilebrew, Turkish and Per:;iun press, the negotiations. Shamir will consult with Foreign Minister Daviv Levy with day-of-publication de-livery. It and Defense Minister Moshe Arens and then decide." is available by private subscription. Levy had been looking forward to leading the delegation, as he has been one of the most passionate advocate of the talks inside the Likud-led MediaGen (UK) Ltd. coalition government. lst & 2nd Floors, Unit C, "there's Old Chelsea Mews, 18 Danvers S t. However, an aide to Levy said Monday that definitely some L,ondon SW3 5AT merit in Shamir's leading the delegation and Levy accompanying hirn." Telephorc: Wl-351-2399 (3 lines) lrvy's own thoughs are unlnown. T e I efax : 07 | -3 52 -6297 ; Telu:915669MEDIA Some believe I-evy would like Shamir to attend the conference because Israel is likely 1o be represented with difficult choices. Mideast Media Services (USA) U.S. officials have privately said, "It is important that Shamk attends so a P.O. Box 3516 that he has a stake in tlrc process succeeding." Annapolis, Maryland (MD) i. 21403-0516 U.S.A. Some Shamir watchers believe that for that very rEason, he would want T et : (301) 26L -247 7 I Q 01 ) 626 - 1328 !o distance himself from the talks should they fail. But others point that he T e I efax : (301) 261 -20 66 could score public relations poins if he goes o Madrid while Assad stays home. @ All rights reserved Shamir, visiting Strasbourg to addres members of the European D uplication andl or transmissirtn in wlale or in part without the editor's Parliament later today, Tuesday, spoke of his hopes for peace when he met wlitten permission is strictly reporters briefly atter a dinner on Monday attended by members of the prohibited. European Jewish Congress.

Tuesday22 October'91 Mfi,fbr

He was asked whether Israel might freeze its se[lement drive in Joel Marcus in Haoretz: the occupied territories after the conference opens, as Palestinian Shamir sltould lrcad the Israeli delegation to leaders say they expect. Shamir Madrid. Not only because of the world replied: "There are no occupied attention, bw to underscore the importance the territories," reflecting his belief that Jewish people are in the West Bank Israeli governmcnt attaches to the peace and Gaza Srip by right. conference. Sltnmir's attendance will compel Because is nol. a head of state, Egypt and Jordan to send Mubarak and Hussein, Shamir cannot address a plenary while Assad will be conspicuous by his absence session of ttre Europcan Parliament, but will take part in a debate wittr members in a committee room Zvi Gilat in Hadashot: barred to press and public before Slnmir wants to attend the Madrid conference. flying home ttris evening. Since it is clear beyond any doubt tlnt Assad Shamir Monday told reporters at Ben-Gurion airport as he left for will not attend, Shamir's participation will Strasbourg that Israel still had to underscore Syria's unwillingness for a real ensure the Palestinian delegation settlement. The possibility of Shnmir attending met Israel's terms. when was and Washington was said ro be arose it learned tlnt Mubarak issuing 20 invitations for Palestin- Hussein ttay take part. ians to join the talks -- 14 for the But if a meeting with Mttbarak cannot be delegates and six for advisors. clinched, Shamir is unlikely to go "Nobody spoke to us of that. And we didn't agree to such a thing. That truly surprises us," Shamir Al Hamishmar: said. "This is an issue we must The head of the Lilad parliamentary faction, analyze, examine emd we will see if Haim Corfu, is proposing legislation so tlnt no this list meets fte rules we have accepted... We still have to check settlement can be evacunted against its residents' the names and we will act wishes, if it was set up by a decision of the government, the Jewish Agency or the World A leadcr comment in T-uesday's Zionist Federation. The proposal the Post tilled "Shamir's astonish- slnws tlwt ment" said, "The exclusion of parti- Lilad has not changed its skin cipation by the PLO has been a and that Lihtd politicians do not trust their fundamental Israeli condition, and it representatives in the government,first and has been accepted by the Bush the prime minister administration. In fact, the Israeli foremost negotiators, fearing a back-door PLO entry into the negotiations, re ceived as s urance s fr o m S e cre tary of State James Baker that there criteria nuntioned in the leuer of negotiating uam and PLO head- would be no'alternative' P ale stinian assurance, this group includes quarters in Tunis. To all intents and delegation which might replace the Faisal Husseini, Hanan Aslvawi purposes, it will be tley who will one meeting the Israeli Uiteria. and four of their colleagues -- all be negotiating with Israel, and they "But yesterday, Prime Minister self-proclainud PLO proxies who will be doing so on behalf of the Yitzlwk Shamir was 'astonished' by are either Jerusalemites or residents PLO. The nominal mcmbers of the reports that individual invitations abroad. delegation will be little more than had been sent not only to the 14 "T lat the se people are purported- puppets. Not surprisingly, Yaser P ale s tinian member s of t he ne go ti at- ly members of just a consulting Ar$at proclainud yesterday that the ing team, but to a six-member body is a technicality. They have PLO will be an active parfier in the P alestinian' cons ul ti n g' dele gat ion. openly proclainud that their func- negotiations. In direct contavention of the tion is to act as liaison between tlu "Thus, even before the confer-

Tuesfuy22 October'91 Mfffir

ence lus begun, one of the Ameri- too many hopes on the oulcome. "Assad is tryrng t0 set the tone can asswances has been vitiated, He himself believed Israel of the process, and that is quite perlwps not absolutell, literally, but should attend the conference. It clear." certainly in spiril. It is one thing to must stick to its guns, he said. But Israel is not necessarily concede that the PLO's reign of "I wholeheartedly trust the bound, as America is. There is no terror in the administered territories prime minister, because I know his reason for Shamir !o play !o makes tacit PLO approval of the opinions and positions. And also Assads one. Palestinian delegates ner:essary if his ability to stand fasL" "Yitzhak Shamir should head tluy are to stay alive. It is quite Moda'i offered his view that the tsraeli delegation !o the peace another to make a mockery of Levy, his old constraint colleague, conference." oficial U.S. assurances by letting has not abandoned his ideology. So The invitation, Marcus notes, tlu organization's lieutenanl,s re- far, all tlre struggles had been talks of "ministerial," not foreign ceive fficial American rccognition verbal. ministerial level. In other words, it and, in ffect, lead the Palestinian "I am certain that in his heart lets each country decide who it delegation. and in his mind there is a resolute wants to send. "Only the U.S. atlministration constrainer position, and he will After George Bush and Mikhail knows why it has decided to partici- stick to it," Moda'i said. But, Gorbachev invited themselves, pate in active efforts to rehabilitate overall, he was in favor of close Israel's delegation should be headed llrc PLO $ter the organization was cabinet scrutiny of all the for0rcom- by her highest authority. Not only discredited by its alliance with ing Israeli moves. because of the world attention, but Saddam Hussein, its support of the to undencore the imporance that Communist coup in the Soviet [] FIRST STOP: HaareE the Israeli government attaches to Union and its continued lerrorisl columnist, Joel Marcus zrssumes the conference. operations -- the mctst recent of Tuesday that Yitzhak Shamir did Shamir's attendance would com- which, a mission intended to mas- not throw a party to celebrate the pel Egypt and Jordan to send Hosni sacre civilians in Nalxtriya, was peace conference. Mubarak and King Hussein, while maunted by Arafat's oy;n Fateh. Younger, more outspoken Hafez Assad would be conspicuous But if Shamir fails b protest colleagues were saying he was sure by his absence. against this fficial introduction of Syria would foil the conference by Intellectuals and the most articu- tlu PLO into the peace process and refusing to take part. late spokesmen should be there, demand its rescission, hi.s 'astonish- "(Hafez) Assad simply betrayed because they would be fighting for ment' will be but the first of him -- he is not a man to be international opinion as well as nuny." trusted." peace. The Syrian leader agreed to "Shamir's English is not exactly [] MODAT: Israel has also scnt attend, but not before he almost the English of Abba Eban (the the United States a list of qucsrions burst U.S. Secretary of State James former foreign minister, sometimes about the various con{brcncc proce- Baker's bladder at l2-hour meetings. called 'the voice of Israel'), his dures, the media rcportcd on He also appears to be trying to rhetoric is not exactly like ttrat of Tuesday. determine the nature and procedures Winson Churchill. But he will at One man who bclicvcs it was a of the conference. least express at first hand the authen- mistake for Israel not to have In view of Assad's conduct" tic voice of the present govern- insisted on a "conractual peace" multilateral talks on regional prob- menlt' clause in the invitation senr our by lems will not be held. In domestic terms, it is also the United States and thc Sovier Assad was against the invitation important he should attend. Union is Finance Minister Yitzhak stating that the goal of ttre Shamir holds all the cards. It Moda'i, a onetime "consl.rainer" conference is a contractual peace. was he who got the resolution along with Housing Minister Aricl So it is not in, and it also lets through the govemment on Sunday Sharcn and Foreign Minister Levy. Shamir off the hmk of a discussion with an impressive majority, with- He himself abstaincd on Sunday of the territorial issue. out rocking ir when the cabinet votcd 16-3 ro "[Assadl did not want the Tehiyas departure still leaves accept the invitation to Madrid, be- conference to be at head-of-state Shamir a coalition government cause he wanted tre clause inscned. level -- he evidently shuddered at the with a respectable Knesset majo- Moda'i talked to Israel Radio thought of sitting opposite Shamir - rity. this Tuesday morning about a - and Baker gave in. "Tehiya will support his govern- change that was occurring in the "The invitations were sent out ment from outside as long as Middle East. But hcy nrusr nor pin to a conference 'at ministerial level'. Shamir is Shamir. The other two

Tuzsday22 October'91 Mffffbr nationalist factions that remained in the govemment give Shamir their Shmuel Schnitzer in Maariv: confidence from within. "But by staying on, hour after A big, black, and menncing cloud lnvers over hour they demonsralc the limita- the conference.We are embarking on a journey tions of his power. into the wtlcnown, with Israel's security, the fate "Ariel Sharon, who bclieves the its welfare its population in actual meeting of the conference is of capital and thc of an existential danger to &e state, the balance. Tlrcre are mines stays on with his only problem along the road, and there is no larcwing whnt being his conscience -- how can he lies behind the next bend continue accepting col lcc ti ve respon- sibility for a decision that endangers the existence of thc surrc?" Akiva Eldar in Yedbt Aharanot: Shamir, Marcus writes, lsa Attending the conference means recognizing the variety of options. Hc can lead PLO and the Palestinian delegation. some of the moves somc of the time, without arriving at the The proof can be seen in Shamir's bleakface necessity of giving up Lerrirories. and Arofat's bliss Palestinian autonomy is the only issue with any chance of Davar: making progress in the loresceable future. If headway is made, he can Shamir moy not even lume a majority during rely on a firm rnajority in the the negotiations for interim arrangements. The Knesset, thanks to thc "saflcty net" sole chance of proceeding with the peace the Labor Party promised him, even process if he has a minority govcmmcnt. will depend on the security net Labor He will always have the option and the left-wing factions give the government. of resigning from thc prerniership It is right for the opposition to support Shamir's at the most convcnicnt moment, peace tnoves. I-abor is in opposition to the turning his governmcnt into a caretaker administration until government, not to peace. But to carry out its general elections zrc hcld. national duty, the opposition must also present Shamir, within certain limits he its policies and positions clearly, slrurpen the has set himself, is direcring rhe dffirence bentteen it and the Lilatd, and not performance on bchalf ol Isracl. It is important, in thc writer's coyer it up for an imnginary nntional unity opinion, that he take command on a path full of obstacles and rnines, "from the first stop surting in Madrid." It would allow beuer exposure Shamir was unlikely o go. The and explanation of Israel's position. composition of Israel's delegation I IMPORTANCE: ln Hada- Since it was clear beyond any doubt would be influenced by his deci- shot, Zvi Gilat rcckons Shamir that Assad will not attend, Shamir's sion. wants to attend the Madrid confer- pafiicipation would underscorc His participation may mean ence. Syria's unwillingness for a real more people from his office, at the He would decide whcn he returns settlement. expense of the foreign ministry. from his visit to the European The possibility of Shamirattend- Political sources were saying parliament in Strasbourg on ing arose when it was learned that Shamir wants to go to Madrid, so TueMay evening. President Mubarak and King Hus- that his foreign minister will not His aides were saying his sein may take part. get ttrc intemational exposure. presence as head of rhe delegation, Conmcm were likely in the On the other hand, they doubt or at least as an honorcd gucst at coming days to check out the Shamir would want to sit in the the opening, would shorv thc impor- possibility of a meeting between conference hall and listen to all the tance Israel attaches to the peace Shamir and Mubarak in Madrid. Arabs' claims and complaints process. If il could not be clinched, against Israel.

Twsfuy22 October Mi'rror

I PRETEXT: Thc hcad ol' the be detached from the PLO and is hovers over 0p conference." Likud parliamentary laction, Haim leaders. The sponsors, he alleges, are Corfu, is proposing legislation so Only someone looking for a pre- not, a neutral factor, standing aside that no settlement can bc cvacuated text to get out of the political pro- and letting the sides thrash things against its residents' wishes, if it cess as quickly as possible would ouL was set up by a decision ol the turn those advising and directing the David Levy may believe they govemment, the Jewish Agency or Palestinian delegation ino a pnob- arc full of goodwill and impartial. tlte World Zionist Fedcration. lem with which he cannot live. Other people see things different- The move prunpts Al ly. A healthy instinct cautions Hamishmar, ttre leli-wing t] UNDER T}IE TABLE: them against a @ush adminisua- Mapam opposition daily, to sute Attending the conference means tion) paron who had never hidden Tuesday that the Likud has not recognizing the PLO and the Pales- his opinion Srat Jerusalem is an changed its skin. tinian delegation, writes veteran issue for negotiation, who held up The proposal shows that Likud right-wing ideologist Yisrael Eldar, the housing loan guarantees for politicians do not trust thcir repre- in Yediot Ahamnot. immigrants, who backed Saddam sentatives in ttre government, first The proof lay in Shamir's bleak Hussein when the beaten dictator and foremost the prime minislcr. face and Yaser Arafat's bliss. protested against Israeli reconnais- They fear ttrey will be "tlraggcd" From the outset, Israel's main sance flights over Luq, who into concessions and territorial corn- contention was against the PLO. advocates the slogan "terrilories for promise during the ncgotiations. Eldar says he could not under- peace" and conducts talks with the The leader writer assurncs stand why so much importance was PLO that ilre not totally covert" Shamir will accept thc restriction attached o ttre issue. They know Israel will not have willingly. He wants to be rcstricted "Is it not obvious to everyone an easy time of it wittr such a super- more than lhey want trl rcstrict ttrat they are all PLO, apart from visor of the negotiating process. him. those in Hamas? Because of the length of time The Likud is running around in "At any rate, they all identify and the ups and downs during the small circles, having suddenly with the PLO's acs of tsrror." preliminary talks, atrention had discovered that the prime minister And from where was the wis- been diverted from the difficult had not managed to dodgc the peace dom of the differentiation between problems of the acnral negotiations. conference. Starcmenn werc one those who "only" identify with and The absence ofjoy felt in Israel thing, an attempt to stymic the champion the PLO -- like Faisal may be because there is time to negotiations' chances was anothcr. Husseini -- and others who go out consider what will happen when If the bill was subrniucd and into the street with a knife to kill they sart discussing the conflict endorsed by the Knessct it would be for the PLO. "If it took two years to solve ten times more grave than sctting Eldad calls it public and the procedural problems, how long up a few more settlemonts. personal deception. Formally, they will it take to settle the problem of From the Arab point ol'r,iew, i[ would not. sit with the PLO at the the Golan Heighs, not to mention would put paid to thc chanccs of table. Only on and under iL Jerusalem?" getting some sort ol' cornpromise "The PLO will conduct the Everyone knows where the from Israel, and reducc their negotiations, or what trey call negotiations will begin. No one motivation to conduct talks with negotiations but that will obvious- knows where and when they will Israel !o zero. ly be nothing but a dictated end. And no one knows what will "There is almost no necd to em- ultimatum under the auspices of a happen when it emerges, as it must phasize that any such legislation, resolute, rich medialor." emerge, that there is no basis of during the move to crcatc a political agreement on any of the arguments. process of all dmcs, will be [] CLOUD: ln Maariv, com- Would the Americans consider it considered by the United Statcs and mentator Shmuel Schnitzer srikes enough to have brought the sides to other friendly countrics to bc a a balance between pleasure and the conference table? Or would they flagrant Israeli act designed to concem over the fulfillment of start putting pressue on the most thwart the talks." Israel's old dream for direct negotia- vulnerable, who is determined, or The same ttring applicd ur the tions wittr the Arab countries and so he claims, not to back down? PLO issue. Shamir had managed to the Palestinians. "We are embarking on a joumey get a "clean" Palestinian delcgation. He is not sure which will have into the unknown, with Israel's sec- But only the mindless would be- tie upper hand. "We have here, urity, the fate of its capital and the lieve the official Palestinian delcga- without doubt, room for concem. A welfare of its population in the tion to the talks with Isracl would big, black, and menacing cloud balance.

Tuzsday22 October'91 Mfffir

"There are mines along the road, and there is no knowing what lies behind the next bcnd." lsraeli-Arab councils vote to Schnitzer talks ol' a "heavy strike against Iack of funds mist" and the Eavel guidc arousing A mass meeting of Israeli-Arab council heads in Shfaram Monday suspicion. It was a long journey. It unanimously decided to stage strike action tro protest against 0re could last for years. Horv could they lrnancial plight the councils, the Pos, reports te happy without wonying/ of lerusalcm Tuesday. All municipal services in Arab towns and villages throughout 0re tl SOLE CHANCE: Writing country are !o be shut down for the day on Thurday. about the "opposition's duty," This is to be followed by another one-day strike of municipal Davar, which usually talks for the services, and the closure of all schools and kindergartens in tlre Arab labor Party, forecasLs a situation in sector on Sunday. which Shamir may not even have a On the same day, elected officials and hundreds of municipals majority during rhe negoriations for employees are to stage a mass demonstration outside the Prime interim arrangemcnts. Minister's Office in Jerusalem. Participants at Monday's meeting Ariel Sharon, backcrl by Likud called on members of tlre public to join the planned protesl extremists and tie right, would Municipal workers in several villages have been on strike for as continue trying to undcrminc the long as three weeks in some case to protest against the non-payment p€ace moves, espccially if the of their salaries. Some employees have not been paid for the past prime minisrer did not call him ro four months. order or fre hirn. The strikers were joined Monday by municipal employees in the "The sole chancc of prmecding triangle town of Taibe, who have not been paid for the past three with the pe:rce process will depend months. on the security nct Labor and the Heads of more than 30 out of the 48 Arab councils attended the left-wing facrions givc the mass meeting. They what government's govemment." decried they described as the failure to honor its commitments to aid the financially-crippled local Davar assumcs Llrc govcmmcnl councils. majority was not so much in favor They are demanding a total of 156l million this year, of which of the peace process, but out ol'fear they claim IS33 million is a refund for sums deducted from regular of L^abor setting up an altcrnative budgets of tlre councils. They claimed an additional IS28 million was administration. promised as an advance on an agreement approved by the govemment It was righr for drc opposil.ion to raise budgets of Arab councils to those of Jewish councils over the to support Shamir's pcacc moves. next four years. "Labor is in opposition to the govemment, not to pcacc." FOOLS: Mohammad Zeidan, spokesman for the national The support is given dcspite the [] committee of Arab Council Heads, said ttrat so far tlre Interior knowledge that Isracl rvould have Ministry had transfened a total of 15600,000, which had to be divided been in a much bc[cr situarion had among all the councils. Shamir not thwartod Labor's "The government is playing with us and rreating us like fools," initiatives in 1987 and 1990. said Zeidan, who is chairman of Kafr Manda local council in the This conditional support, how- Galilee. ever, did not obligc rhc opposition "Municipal employees in Beersheba went on stike for a few days to keep quiet. "On the contrary, to because they didn't receive last month's salary and the problem was carry out. its national duty, it must resolved. Many employees in the Arab sector have not been paid for present its policies and pr,ositions periods of up to five months and the problem remains unresolved," clearly, sharpen the dill'crence be- he old the Post. tween it and thc Likud, and not The meeting Monday ageed to grant the national commiuee cover it up for an imaginary powers to decide on further protest measures on Sunday unless national unity." their demands are mel Only the prescnurtion of a The additional steps being considered include an indefinite sit- realistic, pragmatic altcrnalive down strike and tent demonstradon the council heads in would foil any attempl on thc pan by Jerusalem, as well as sending reports of the plight of the councils and of coalition elcmcn[s, or peopte Arab citizens generally to the UN and foreign ambassadors. close to the prirnc minisrcr, [o nip the conferencc in thc bud.

22 October'91 Mfffir Annexing L3Vo of West Bank keeps most settlers in Israel

By Jon Immanuel I SfX AREAS: Since most of (some 17 percent of Judea/Samaria) At least 70 percent of Israelis the govemment's building activity of sparsely populated tenitory living in Judea and Samaria could is currently taking place within would add little Jewish population, be brought within Israel's borders these six areas, the figures indicate but the northern section could be without moving them an inch, by that, despite is declared determina- sliced off if the intention is to keep annexing just 13 percent of the tion to eventually settle the Land of as many Israelis as possible where West Bank with an Arab population Israel, it is concentrating on they are, while still leaving close to under 50,000, according to most consolidating certain pars. 80 percent of ttre land for a possible recent population figures. Although well over half the area Palestinian state. In the most concentrated area of of Judea/Samaria has been bought These nine areas include more settlement, almost one-third of the or declared state land, more than 80 than 76 of the approximately 130 entire Jewish population of percent, will remain unsettled or settlements. Judea/Samaria lives on four percent contain only small, isolated settle- About 35 very small settle- of the land, among fewer than ments as the govemment heads into ments -- some of them the most 25,0000 of the West Bank's the first stage of peace talks. ideologically committed to an 800,000 Palestinians. I Area I includes Ariel and Integral Land of Israel, like Kiryat These statistics are drawn from has 32,000 Jewish inhabitants on Arba (pop. 5,500), Jewish neighbor- an examination of Jewish and Arab 220 sq. lrn. hoods in Hebron, Elon Moreh near population figures, dating from I fuea 2, surrounds Arca l, Nablus and Eli, Shilo and Ofra, June, obtained from the Council of and has about 3,000 Israelis on north of Ramallah -- could not be Settlements and the Civil Adminis- about 250 sq. km. incorporated within Israel's borders tration in Judea and Samaria. They I Area 3 includes Gush without annexing a much larger suggest that Israelis and Pales- Etzion, with 5,000 on 100 sq. km. amount of the territories and a tinians in Judea/Samaria are not f Area 4, Maaleh Adumim, sizable Arab population. inexricably meshed, making separa- 15,000 on 70 sq. km. The heartland of Jewish settle- tion of the West Bank from Israel I Area 5, Givat Zpev, 6,N0 ment in the West Bank is bordered impossible, but that Israel does on 50 sq. km. by Ariel, Kedumim, Alfei Menashe have a decisive demographic hold I Area 6 around Latrun has and Oranit. It occupies four percent on specific areas. about 5,000Israelis on 90 sq. km. of the territory, includes at least 32 The 13 percent land area in- This totals 65,000 on 780 sq. percent of 0re Jewish population in cludes six separate regions conti- km. In addition, several of the 14 Judea and Samaria, and, in Barkan, guous to the pre-1967 border, with new settlements on the Green Line has the largest industrial park in the more than 40 settlements. It abut these areas and will eventually county. encompasses all but two of the 10 expand into them. The total area of In Oris area alone, more than largest settlements. Control over the West Bank is almost 6,000 sq. 5,500 housing units (of no more this area would, for topographical km and the highest estimated ttran 15,000 planned in the next 18 reasons, increase access tro the main number of Jewish residents is months) are in the process of being aquifers which are found beneath the 85,000-100,000. built or are in the ground-breaking coastal side of ttre tenitories. stage. This will potentially increase The area around Rosh Ha'ayin, 0 OTIIER AREAS: Two other the population from an estimated where settlement is most intensive, arqN -- eight settlements south of 32,000 to more than 55,000 within is especially convenient for drilling Hebron (200 sq. km) and three west 18 months, bringing it up to 40 and provides relatively cheap water, of Jenin (40 sq. km) -- can be percent of the Jewish population in a spokesman for Mekorot, the linked easily to Israel without an- Judea/Samaria. national water carrier, said. nexing virnrally any Arab village. The area already boasts more Lack of access to t}tis area They add little to the Jewish popula- Jews than Arabs and more Jewish would drive up water costs !o Pales- tion, but would require annexation settlements than Arab ones. Its tinians, adding to the toughness of of an additional four percent of the total Palestinian population does negotiations over the area, but also land. not surpass 25,000. Kalkilya is the providing a reason for mutual con- The Jordan Valley with its 25 only substantial town which could cessions. settlements over 1,000 sq. km not be excluded from Israel if both

Tuzsday22 October'91 Mfflror

Updnte Shamir talks of Palestinian passports

Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir raised the He said Stramir did not say he rccepted the prospect of dual nationality passports for Pales- principle of such a withdrawal, but added: "When he tinians during a visit to the European Parliament, an confrrned that the conference takes place on the Israeli diplomat in Srasbourg said on Tuesday. basis of such resolutions, he also accepts the frct The diplomat said Shamir, speaking during a that that resolution means the withdrawal from breakfast meeting with Euro-MPs, suggested that cerain Erritories." Palestinian residents of East Jerusalem might have However, Shamir contested the idea that Isael their passports linked to ttre holding of Jordanian, should freeze setdements in the Gaza Strip and West Syrian or Lebanese nationality. Bank soon after the Ocober 30 peace conference One parliamentary official said Shamir's opens as hlestinian leaders are urging. comments about passports were vague, but that he "He says that is not ttre problem, because most appeared to be seeking an opening which would of what you call the occupied territories is Israel and allow progress at the Middle East peace conference will be Israel. Therefore it is not a question of opening in lvladrid on October 30. foreign sedements. It is a question of serlement by French Socialist parliamenarian Claude Jews in ttreir own counEry," Cheysson said. Cheysson, a former foreign minister, said Shamir "With regard to other tenitories - and by that he had shown himself "ready to consider a number of meant the Golan Heights - ttre situation is different, issues which until now had never been mentioned," but that this is open for negotiations. For me this is particularly concerning the basis of talks abour a very, very imporlanl" partial withdrawal from the occupied territories. Cheysson said Shamir placed great emphasis on "He says UN Resolution 242 does not mean that the role of mass migration of Soviet Jews o Israel Israel should withdraw from all occupied territories, in giving the Jewish state a new dimension in future but he accepts that it means a withdrawal from "with more population, talent, scientific advance and certain occupied territories," Cheysson told Rewers. a larger role at world level."

JORDAI\

fiusfuy22 Octobcr'91 Mi'rror

negative and vulnerable state of mind, we might as well The second is to sop the political confusion within the not go. The truth -- at least as I see it -- is far more Arab World itself, and allow the Arab people to get on comforting, and, ironically, it coincides witl some of with their quest for political systems that are more the strident statements being made by the far right in participatory, democratic, responsive and humane. An Israel. These people say that peace talks with the Arabs end to war in Palestine and movement on Arab will lead to an Israeli withdrawal from the Occupied democratization and integration will bring us imo a Territories, a Palestinian state or something close to it, whole new world in this region in the next decade - a and perhaps even the end of Israel. Things are not quite beuer world in which Arab dignity and productivity are so simple or so linear, but I am optimistic and restored, and the question of the status of the several enthusiastic about the peace conference for the million Jews amongst us is no longer a brake of the following reasons: development of ou region.

1) The peace conference probably represents the 3) The mechanics of the peace conference will fint serious international effort since the nrrn of the soon prove reasonable fc the Arabs, because for the century to define and contain Zionism. Ever since first time since the sart of the Palestinian-Zionist European Jewish settlers started coming to Palestine at struggle in 1896 we have ttre following situation: direct the tum of the century, the geographic and demographic Arab-Israeli negotiations are taking place in a political frontiers of Zionism and the state of Israel have never context tlrat is based on the internationally sanctioned been formally defined -- eifter by Israel iself or by the demand for exchanging land for peace. The entire world rest of the world. accepts the Palestinian right of self-determination, and demands that Israel withdraw from our occupied lands. The peace conference may require further concessions Yet, ttre world has made it clear that it will do nothing from the Arabs in the short-term, and those concessions to bring these two objectives about unless we all sit on should be made with gmce and confidence -- because the a negotiating table and work out the details. short-term goal of checking and then neuralizing the predatory nature of Zionism is worth the short-term The advent of such a negotiating table will see Israel price we are asked !o pay. It is vitally important now to badly isolated from the rest of the world. It will try its rescue as much of Palestine and Palestinian righs as is old tricks of diverting attention from the core issues, possible -- which means aiming for the best deal we can stalling, lying, obfuscating, and anything else it deems get, rather than continuing to demand naively for the appropriate to avert the day ofreckoning -- the day when total national rights we claim. This is not a poker game it must withdraw from the lands it occupied in 1967, in which we go for all or nothing. and coexist with a self-determinant Palestinian people living in freedom on Palestinian soil. Israel will find 2) Such short-term compromise is necessary itself under intense international pressure to live within because it will pay dividends in the long term, and if we defined borders - and it and the Palestinian national have learned anything in the Middle East it is that entity will enjoy all necessary international security political drama is a long-term process. This is not the guuantees. time to be naively impatient, or to panic from emotional stress. This is the moment to put emotions 4) The negotiations will shift the terms of in our back pocket, and to address the issues before us reference of the Palestinian-Zionist or Arab-Israeli with an extra dose of dispassionate rationality. conflict from Israel's U.S.-backed mittary superiority to Emotionalism and an exaggerated sense of honor have the arena of legal righs and moral dictates -- an arena in brought us chronic failure in the Arab World, along which we ue far more powerful than the lsraelis. In a with some well entrenched police states, a few structured negotiation based furnally on the principles totalitarian oligarchies, and several states living of Resolutions 242 and 338, we have the opportunity at perpetually on the brink of collapse (Sudan, Lebanon, last to translate the powerful international support for Somalia, and, in the next half a decade, probably Palestinian rights into tangible facts. The conference Esvp0. provides the mechanism to shift the center of gravity of the Middle East conflict from Israel's military We deserve and need something better in the Arab arguments, to our arguments about the need to World, which is why we have two priorities vis-i-vis implement UN resolutions. the peace talks. The first is to stop the total colonization of Palestine by Jewish settlers from There are dozens and dozens of UN resolutions Brooklyn and Moscow, provide a focal point for the condemning Israel's illegal actions in Palestine, exercise of Palestinian national rights, and rid the region Lebanon, Jordan and Syria. In a negotiating context, of the pressures and costs of the conflict with Zionism. those resolutions provide us with moral and legal

Twsday22 October'91 l0 Mfi,fbr firepower. Our challenge is to use them effectively, and been destroyed with time. Why should ttre Israelis be to refuse to fall into the traps that Israel will keep the only people in the world who can use military force trying to set for us - traps such as Monday's Israeli to forever subjugate the majority amongst whom they criticism of Syria for the atracks against Israeli soldiers live? It is not possible, and it will not happen. in South lrbanon. Here is a good case study of Israeli diversionary tactics in action. The Israelis can either come to terms witr their grcater Arab/Islamic environment now and accept peace Israel wants to brand ttre Arabs as terrorists and terms that give them the security they demand .. or they inveterate killers who wish only to ddnk the blood of can keep collecting nuclear bombs and get ready to die Jewish children, and it wants o lay a moral claim for along with us in a great nuclear holocaust one day in its own security as enjoying a greater priority than the the early years of the 21st century. There is no righs or security of the Arabs. What is our appropriate alternative. Perpearal Arab subjugation to Zonist response? First, pity for Israeli leaders so frenzy is not possible. Either we all enjoy equal psychologically ravaged that ttrey have brought three national righs, or none of us lives in peace and millennia of Jewish morality o the point where its security. I suspect the majority of Israelis would choose sharpest focus is on warfare and guns. Second, peace with the Arabs, based on equal justice for Israelis composure and a steady diplomatic focus on the real and Arabs, rather than eternal warfare. issues at hand, which are the Israeli occupation of South Lebanon and the Golan Heights, in this case. Third, we 6) The Ivladrid peace conference is the most serious do the James Baker Diplomatic Tango - recalling what intemational effort ttris century !o achieve the goal of he himself said on a visit to Yemen last autumn, during equal justice for Arabs and Israelis. Should it succeed, the Gulf crisis, we simply repeat his words, to the effect Israel will have to come to terms with life as a normal that this conflict is all about the credibiliry of IJN state, rather than an imperial one. With time, in a resolutions. If the Israelis do not want their soldiers peaceful and productive Middle East, Israelis will revert killed in South Lebanon, those soldiers should not be in to their ancient role -- a small Jewish minority living in South l-ebanon. Isn't tlat more or less what ttre world a large, powerful and ancient Arabflslamic World, a said about Iraqi soldiers in Kuwait, or does my memory world that has always considered them part of its play tricks on me? Or is there a special UN morality for heritage, and is future. Israel and another for the Arabs? We shall soon hnd out. The Israelis will have a hard time making the adjustment from super state to boring, normal state. 5) As the world focuses on the core conflict in they will be unwilling o give up the self-declared moral Palestine and the issue of land and sovereignty, and privileges they claim according to their self-generated seeks to resolve it by implementing UN resolutions status as God's chosen people. They will be pained to calling on Israel !o withdraw, end its settlements, and learn that their game is over, and that we must all live stop is illegal practices that deny the Palestinians their as God's children, equally loved by him. This runs human rights the Israelis will panic. They have started against everything that Jews and Israelis have been to do so because they understand, perhaps better than taught for ttre last several thousand years. most of us do, that this peace conference is the beginning of the end of rhe Israeli game that has lasted They have old themselves that they are special, for nearly a century -- ttre game of claiming superior distinct, chosen. The world will tell them at lvladrid that moral rights, national claims, security interests, and they are none of these things, that they are one state hisorical pauimony. among nearly 200 others in the world. They can fantasize all they want about qpecial morality and higher Israel is being asked to live by the same rules that calling in the realm of the heavens, but here on earth other states and people live by. It has never been able to they must live according !o the nrles of man -- and ttre do so since 1947, and will have a hard time learning to rules of man apply equally o all people. This is the do so. But in the end it will have to do so, or else risk significance of what will happen at Madrid. I-et us hope perpetual conflict in this region. Such conflict will see it succeeds, for if it does all of us in the Semitic family it one day destroyed in a blaze of guns, as all other shall be equal winners, and we can all stop playing foreign colonial experiments in the Arab World have games that kill.

1I Twsfuy22 Octobr'9| Mtrror MIDEAST & PALESTINE Palestinian leftists .ioin Islamists in opposing the talks at Madrid

Al-Quds al-Arabi blames Arab governments for weak Palestinian negotiating position, saying it is up to the US to prove the rejectionists wrong

The PLO's two main leftwing groups have joined hisoric righa in Palestine, and trnn it ino a residents' forces with the Islamist Hamas movement to denounce problem ftat can be resolved in stages through the current U.S.-sponsored peace process z$ an attempt administrative self-ruIe" under continuing Israeli to keep the Palestinians under permanent Israeli control. control. In a joint statement issued in the Occupied Even the "best outcome" possible from Madrid Territories, the PFLP, DFLP and Hamas called for an would merely be for "Israeli sovereignty to be replaced escalation of the intifada during the buildup o the by token Jordanian sovereignty, which would act as Madrid peace conference -- including a general strike on cover for the perpetuation of the (Israeli) occupation Wednesday -- !o express popular rejection of the talks. through a continuing security and military presence in And they challenged the claim that a majority of various parts of the (West) Bank and (Gaza) Srip.' Palestinians supported prticipation in the conference, The statement protested that in the buildup to the saying the composition of the various bodies that had conference the Americans had been squeezing "free approved it -- presumably including the Palestine concessions" from the Palestinians that amounted to National Council (PNC), or Palestinian parliament-in- surrendering the righs for which they had "struggled and exile - was not properly representative. sacrificed for decades." The statement portrayed the aim of the U.S.-led It said while the PFLP, DFLP and llamas respocted process as being to achieve diplomatically what decades differences of view among Palestinians on this issue, of Israeli war and repression had failed to do -- namely, the claim that the majority of Palestinians supported surrender Palestinian rights to repatriation, self- going to tle conference under the terms on offer was determination and independent statehood. false. It said the U.S. was exploiting its increased strength It spoke of attempts to "forge the will of our people following its victories in the Gulf and the Cold War to by claiming that a majority of one body or other had impose an unjust Arab-Israeli settlement on its own agreed to tlrc capitulation." terms. Such bodies had been set up "bureaucratically" and Why else would Washington, which had for years could not be considered fully representative until their "encouraged and backed the Zionists and supported their composition "responds to the rue will of the people." entity materially and militarily," choose this moment to "The PNC must become an authentic representative "start professing its seriousness about resolving the [body] of all sectors of our people in the homeland and Arab-Israeli conflict" on its terms and conditions. diaspora, by instituting the principle of proportional The statement said Washington's real aim was to rep,resentation in its membership." restructure the Middle East by establishing a network of It said tlre determined adherence by nearly six regional allies among whom Israel would be the million Palestinians worldwide to their national identity "nucleus, miliary arm and controlling power." was proof enough that they rejected attempts !o The U.S. wanted the Madrid conference to enable its "liquidate our cause." Arab allies to normalize relations with Israel, thus The "whims of leaders who are deluded into submit- adding an economic dimension to its military role and ting to Americas will" would not detract from Bre giving it access to the "Gulf riches." determination of Palestinians to "continue the free&m It said the way the Palestine Question was being struggle until the liberation of our land, the establish- approached at Madrid would "devoid it of its contJent as ment of our state and the ingathering of our people in tle cause of a people who have religious, national and their counuy and ia blessed capital Jerusalem."

Trcfuy22 October'91 Mfi,fbr

It cited the experience of Lebanon - where resistance leadenhip... to respect the vast majority of our people fighters forced occupying Israeli fonces to retreat from and uphold national decisions which affirm the need to Beirut and most of the South into the present buder hold fast !o our people's inalienable national rights," "security zone" -- as an example the Palestinians should said lvlalki. follow. ldalki went a step further, adding that the conferees It urged people in the Occupied Territories to srep up being sent to Maddd "lack credibility and legitimacy and the revolt against Israeli rule in the days preceding ttre do not represent the Patestinian peqile." conference to express their rejection of the "comedy Abu-Hilal agreed, saying the delegation would lack show" that was planned in lvladrid. legitimacy unless the PI-O announced that it was under "Let the people raise their fists and guns to thwart its authority. the capinrlationist plans of imperialism," ttle statement urged. [] FATEH: The largest PLO constituent grouping, Fateh, appeared Tuesday to be challenging its leftist and [] LEFT: The PFLP and DFLP stressed Tuesday Islamist opponents' attempt o mobilize against the that they were not opposed to Arab-Israeli peace as such Ivladrid conference. but were convinced that the terms of the Madrid In a leaflet distributed in the Occupied Terrilories it gathering were unfair. called on people to ignore the call by the PFLP, DFLP The two groups' leading spokesmen in the Occupied and Hamas for a general strike on Wednasday Territories -- Btr Zeit University professor Dr. Riyad It said the srike had not been called by the Unified Malki and the recently repaniated deportee Ali Abu- National Command of the Uprising, so shops and Hilal -- also strongly denounced tlrreats of physical businesses should therefore open normally on violence that had been made against ttre prospective Wednesday. Palestinian negotiators. They condemned PLO dissident Ahmad Jibril, head [] POINT: The Palestinian daily alQuds al- of the Damascus-based PFLP-General Command, for Ambi - which supports Fateh -- said the rejectioniss saying in Tehran Monday ttr,at the Palestinian delegates had a point about the unfavorable terms of the had "sentenced themselves to death.' conference but this did not warrant non-participation at Malki and Abu-Hilal said whereas they were against Madrid. tle conferees going to Madrid and would organize Rather, the paper urged the U.S. o disprove in demonstrations to press the point, such ttrreats of practice what Palestinian opponents of the peace violence could not be tolerated and had no place among conference were accusing it of planning. Palestinians. It said deep-rooted Palestinian opposition to the Malki read out a statement saying Palestinians tenns on offer for the talks was not unexpected. It had wanted a just peace that would end the Israeli been aired forcefully at the PNC and the Palestine occupation, allow diaspora Palestinians to retum and Central Council before the decision to go to lvladrid was give the Palestinians the same rights to self- taken. determination and sratehood that other peoples enjoyed. Even the chief Palestinian negotiator, Dr. tlaidar He said the terms thrashed out by Baker for the Abdeshafi, had lamented that the talks were being held Madrid gathering fell far short of addressing these rights under rules drawn up by ttrc U.S. and Israel. or meeting the standards set by intemational law. But &e pper said the rejectionists were wrcng to "The conference cannot be the way to a just peace," blame the PLO for this state of affairs. It was the Arab he said. regimes who had pushed the Palestinians into the comer He said the PLO leadership and is "offshoots" in the they find themselves in. Occupied Territories had sanctioned Palestinian The PLO had urged the Arab stales to make an particiption even though the PNC's minimum Israeli serlement freeze a condition for their attendance requirements had not been mel at the conference, but ttrey refused. The Israelis and Americans were tryrng o exclude They had also igaored Palestinian proposals for Arab diaspora Palestinians -- about npo thirds of the entire participation to be made conditional on discussion of Palestinian people - from any part in a settlement. the sans of Jerusalem at tvladrid. They were seeking to "isolate" East Jerusalem from the The PLO had in addition ried to persuade the Arab rest of the Occupied Territories and hand it to Israel, and participants to meet beforehand to cmrdinate their would leave West Bankers and Gazans with no&ing positions at the conference, but again this had not more than "administrative autonomy." happened. Most of the Arab regimes continued to "We ars gathered here not to express opposition to "boycott 0re PLO in reqponse to American prcssure." peace, but opposition to submission to these Israeli "It will not be unexpected for this pressure to be conditions which block real peace, and to urge the PLO turned up at the negotiating table, to force the

13 Tutshy22 Octobcr'91 Mfrror

Palestinian negotiating team to make more conces- who were adopting the same line ttnt their record was sions," alQuds al-Arabi wamed. no less ignoble than that of Iran, and they were in no The paper said opposition of some Palestinian position to "threaten to detonate the ground beneath the goups to the conference showed how dangerous it was feet of those who go to Madrid." for Washington to continue "imposing Israeli condi- All they offered the people of the Occupied tions on the Arab side, and demanding that it alone offer Tenitories was "embamssed applause every now and concessions." then, and demands ttrat they continue their steadfashess, The Palestinians had shown all the flexibility they resistance and martyrdom till the last Falestinian child"' could to make ttre conference possible, in the tnowledge "This is an opportunity for peace, whose Arab fi,at post-Cold War America was in a commanding enemies are trying to undermine o affirm how wrong intemational position and in order to "save our people we are and how right they are," Ble paper said" from fresh massacres." These groups were using nothing but words to fight But "America's lack of appreciation of this stand the peace conference and pursue the liberation sruggle. risks stopping the march of Palestinian moderation and But those same words had been tested before, when realism dead in its tracks, and reinforcing the during the auack on Iraq it ranspired "that there are no convictions of the Palestinians who reject the peace fingers on the rigger. The first people o abandon the conference." Iraqis were those who pledged most loudly tlnt they It warned of disaster if Washington continued to would fight in their trench to defeat imperialism, show bias toward Israel and a "lack of seriousness" in Zionism and reaction." pursuing a comprehensive settlement based on intemational law and UN resolutions, i.e. a full Israeli [] IRAN: The Tehran conference Monday heard withdrawal from the Occupied Territories, East Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati predict that Jerusalem included. Israeli intransigence would scuttle the Madrid talks. "The Madrid conference will be the real test of "The naive people who have been drowned by the American intentions. If the Bush adminisration fails, current of appeasement will not be given a single instability in the Arab world will spread for years, and handspan of the land of Palestine," he told the delegates. all hopes for real peace will explode." He said the Madrid conference "ignored totally" most of Palestine and held out little prospect, if any, that the [] AMMAN: In Jordan, also facing powerful remainder would be renrmed o its righful owners. domestic opposition to ttre Madrid conference, the daily "It does not uphold ending the occupation, but al-Ra'i had less time for the rejectionist case. merely seeks to establish relations benreen the Zionist The paper turned its edilorial guns on Iran, which is entity and tlre neighboring states," he said. currently hosting a conference on Palestine at which it With the intifada continuing any such deal was is rallying opposition to the Madrid talks among $oups "doomed," he said. from various Arab and Islamic countries. Velayati said however that the Gulf crisis had Al-Ra'i said the same groups that were exhorting brought a solution to the Palestine Question closer, if the Palestinians to arms now were those who during the only by demonstrating the "hypocrisy with which the Gulf war had urged Iraq to fight to the bitter end with arrogant world powers Eeat the issue of the usurpation such disastrous consequences. of land by others." "Those who wanted to fight imperialism, Zionism When Israel was the guilty party "the slogans of and reaction to the last Iraqi child are now affirming denunciation" against illegal conquest suddenly their willingness to continue their struggle to the last dissipated, he said. Palestinian child," it said. "In this context" the farcical show that goes under They had pledged during the Gulf crisis that "their the name of a Mideast peace conference aims at nothing fingers are on the trigger and that they will shake the more than consolidating the Zionist entity in this earth beneath the feet of the aggressors if they fire a region," tre said. single shot at an Iraqi." Yet Iraq was turned to rubble Velayati condemned the PNC decision accepting the and these "sEugglers stayed behind their bullet-proof conference concept, saying instead of supporting the glass." intifada the Palestinian parliament was leading is It was ironic ttnt Iran was leading the chorus of people along a course that would only demoralize them concem for tle fate of tle Palestinians, the paper said. and undermine the credibility of their leaders. Had it been sincere it would have shown similar, if not more, concern for the welfare of is Iraqi neighbors, U ROW: The Lebanese pan-Arab Mily abHayat fellow Shiiles who were being starved by sanctions said a fierce row erupted at the Tehmn meeting on without Iran lifting a finger to help. Monday between Palestinian opponents and supporters The paper wamed the "Palestinians and other Arabs" of the decision to go to Madrid.

Tuesfuy22 October'91 t4 Mfflfbr

Palestinian delegates in Tehran include represent- Noun said PLO delegates boycotted a dinner for atives of the PLO mainstream and opposition $oups as conference delegates hosted by Iranian Parliament well as the Syrian-backed Palestinian dissident groups Speaker Mehdi Kamlbi, but decided against leaving and various Islamist factions. Tehran alogettrer in protest at Bteir hosts'adarde. Correspondent Ali Noun said tempers flared when The chief Palestinian delegate in Tehran, PNC one of the Lebanese delegates, Sheikh Said Shaaban of Speaker AMelhamid Sayeh, defended his decision to the Tripoli-based Tawheed Movement, denounced PLO asend the Iranian meeting daspite the overwhelmingly Chairrnan Yaser Arafat for insisting on maintaining the anti-Madrid sentiments of the participants. organization's secular character. Tehran had billed the gathering as being in support He charged that Arafat did this [o curry favor with of the intifada and Jerusalem, and it would be gpod if tle West, and asked: "Ale the infidels smiling on him delegates discussed these matters "rather than rading now?" personal insulls," he was quoted as saylng by alQuds Shaaban was intemrpted by Fateh Cenral al-Ambi. Committee member and PNC Deputy Speaker Selim Sayeh said the Pale,stinians were going to lvlddd to Zmnoun, who told the Lebanese cleric his wonds were claim tlpir legitimate rights. "irresponsible and inapprropriate." If the peace talks sought to end the Arab-Israeli The PLO's Tehran representative also interjected to conflict by upholding UN resolutions the Palestinians remind Shaaban that he had received PLO support in ttre would "most certainly" go along with the process. If past and was in no position !o stafi, denouncing it now. they were hijacked by Israel to serve its ends, they This led to bitter exchanges in which Damascus- always had the option of walking out, he said. based delegates -- including Abu Moussa, head of the Sayeh said Palestinian rejectioniss were "falling Fateh splinter movement that broke away in 1983 - ino a rap set by Israel and the U.S." By porraying - turned on the PLO representatives, saying they had no Arafat's pro-peace approach as being at variance with business being at the Tehran conference in the first Palestinian opinion they were effectively supporting the place. Israeli bid to undermine the PLO's representrtive status.

15 Arab FMs to meet this week in Damascus

Fifteen Arab foreign ministers will reportedly meet up tle AMU, bw wlike the GCC, they will not be in Damascus this week to coordinate their stands at ttre attending tlw peace conference as a bloc because of Middle East peace conference opening in Madrid October Tripoli's opposition to the parley, the Palestinian daily 30. abQuds abArabi rctes Twsdoy. While many reports continued to forecast a meeting Twiia, Morocco, Algeia and Mauritania luve of the foreign ministers of the five Arab "ring" states - accepted the invitation to attend tlu peace talk with - Syria, Jordan, Irbanon, Egypt and Palestine -- in Israel as observers. Al-Quih al-Arabi rcted tlwt the Damascus Wednesday, some regional papers Tuesday Algerian foreign ministry statemcnt anrcuncing spoke of a much larger gathering that would also Algiers' ogreemcnt to go to Madrid stressed tlwt this include the foreign ministers of the six-nation Gulf followed the PLO's decision to authorize Palestinian Cooperation Council (GCC) and four Arab Maghreb participation in the conference.It qwted the statenant Union (AM[I) states. as saying the PLO lad urged Algeria to be represented The leading $aufi deily Aslwrq al-Awsat quoted "to sttpport the Palestinian people and their leader- Palestinian officials in ttre delegation 0rat accompanied ship." PLO Chairman Yaser Arafat to C-airo Monday that the In Cairo, ttre opposition weeHy ash-Shaab alsn gathering will take place in Damascus "within the next reputed ttnt the proposed Arab meeting would bring four days." They said it would be attended by the foreign together the foreign ministers of the "ring" or frontline ministers of Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Palestine and states, the GCC and the four Maghreb partners. It said Lebanon, the six GCC partners (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, this is the most Arafat, who has been pressing for a Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the UAE), in addition to summit of the Arab "ring" leaders, could achieve during Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco and Mauritania. his talks in Cairo and earlier in Damascus. The four latter countrks, together with Libya, make While Syria has apparently been willing to host a

I5 Tuesday 22 October '91 Mflffir

"ring" summit, Egypt has consistently been reported conference table because of Israel's refusal to deal wittl cool to the idea. There has also been confusion about it, but at his Cairo press conference, Arafat dismissed a Cairo's role at the parley following President Hosni suggestion that his organization had been undermined Mubarak's stat€ment that it will go to Madrid as an by the fact that the invitation to the conference had been "observgr." delivered to East Jerusalem nationalist leader Faisal In its Tuesday edition, the Egyptian semiofficial al- Husseini. Gomhuriya quotes Mubarak as saying Egypt would "Don'[ forget I appointed Husseini head of the take part in the conference as "a participant" btrt its role Palestinian team and Dr. Haidar AMelshafi head of the in the bilateral negotiations that are !o follow between negotiating team," e.airo's al-Ahmm quotes Arafat as Israel and the main Arab participants (Syria, Lebanon, retoting. Jordan and the Palestinian repnesentatives) would be The pan-Arab al-Hayat, reporting Arafats answer, limited to that of an "observer." said he stryped short of saying he appointed Abdelshafi The U.S. and Soviet sponsors of tlu conf,erence stale and noted only ttrat he had named Husseini leader of the in their invitation that Egypt is being asked to attend as team that negotiated with U.S. Secretary of State James a participant. Baker and his aides over the past eight months. Mubarak also told the paper tlnt Foreign Minister However, the paper quotes him as adding: "Don't Amr Moussa would deliver Egypt's address at the parley worry, we have good coordination between (PLO but Cairo's input would not end there. "The Egyptian headquarters in) Tunis and Madrid." role will continue to be effective throughout the lengthy Husseini announced the names of the l4-srong and tough negotiations that wi[ follow the conference Palestinian negotiating team, which will attend the opening in order to nzurow the gap in viewpoins and Maddd conference within a joint delegation with Jordan, overcome the disagreements that may arise," he said. at an East Jerusalem press conference this Tuasday The Egyptian leader added that it was necessary to aftemoon. (Tlw nanus he put fonvard were published in coordinate Arab positions before going to Madrid, hence yesterday's Minor wilh one clwnge only - Sarnir his meeting with Arafat, his telephone conversation Abdallah, an ecorwmics lectwer at Bir kit University, with Syrian President Hafez Assad and his ottrer replacing Dr. Alvrad al-Yazji). Husseini will act as contacts with all the other Arab and intemational parties chief coordinator of the Palestinian delegation but will concemed. not afiend the talks because of Israel's veto on East Moussa, for his part, told a joint news conference Jerusalemites. Other East Jerusalemites and diaspora with Arafat Monday ftat Egypt would take part in the Palestinians will join him in an advisory committee. conference as a full participant but would only take prt The U.S. has proposed that Jerusalem natives join in the bilateral negotiations with Israel if the parties to the Jordanian component of the joint delegation as a the talks requested. In response, Arafat urged Cairo to compromise to circumvent Israel's veto and partially maintain is participation "alongside the Palestinian satisfy Palestinian demands. An unnamed Palestinian delegation." official quoted by AFP says the npo Jerusalem natives Ash-Shaab, which qpeaks for the Islamist who will be on the Jordanian delegation are llarvard Socialist Labor Party (SLP), claimed tlnt the United Professor Walid Khalidy, 66, who holds American States was trying to "marginalize" Egypt's role in the citizenship in addition to his Jordanian passport, and peace talks. The weekly paper, which was attempting to Rohi al-Khatib, who was mayor of East Jerusalem until explain the confusion surrounding rhe Egyptian Israel deported him in 1967 and now lives in Amman. position, said that was why Arafat had come to Cairo - A Jordanian ofhcial told Mideast Minor in Amman - "to salvage what can be salvaged and try to adjust the the Jordanian delegation would also include diaspora American-Israeli pea.ce terms." Pale,stinians. Ash-Slwab also quoted PLO sources as saying One of those nominated to the Palestinian Arafat put before Mubarak PLO ideas on how to negotiating team, Ghassan Khatib, told reporters in establish a link benveen the negotiations Israel is to Amman Monday the Palestinian delegation would arrive have with the Arab states and &ose it will hold with the in the Jordanian capital for coordination talks later this Palestinians so as to block the American-Israeli attempt week and fly on o Madrid. He said Jordan would lead to decouple the proposed Arab-Israeli and Palestinian- the team at the opening session and the chairmanship Israeli settlements. According to the same paper, Cairo would then alternate between the two sides depending on is now involved in contacts with Washington to ensure the issues discussed. The coordination mechanism has that Israel will not pull out of the conference if the link been agreed during Arafat's talks wi0t King Hussein between the Palestinian delegation and the PLO Sunday and a PLO delegation will be in Amman next becomes too visible, as is expected. week to ftnalize details.

[] PLO: The PLO has been denied a seat at the il SPECIAL: Ttusday's Washington Post mean-

Tuesday 22 October '91 MiTror

while reports that tla Bwh administatian is expected to French Presidcnt Frangois Miltenand Trcsday said appoint a special envoy and an accompanying team to he will rwt be receiving Arafat tHs tinu tot to divupt manitor the peace tallcs. the Madrd cor{erence. It quoted administration fficials as soying tlw "I will surely see him soon," lv told a rdio bilateral negotiations between Israel and its Arab intervkwer. "I have no reason to refuse him a tneeting. neighbors, and between Israel and the Palestinians, But I do not wutt there to be any cottfusion or any could take months or years, and naming a Ngh-level intervention before tlw opening of tlu peace cot{erence envoy would be intended to demonstrate the United which would creue doubt or suspicion... bu I will see States' commitmcnt to the process during a long period Mr. Ar$at later... at tle earliest opporttnity." when there nwy be little or no progress in ttw But Foreign Minister Roland Dwws said he will negotiations. probably be seeing tlv Palestiniu leder. Among those being considered for the post, the Pankin has made clear the cessation of Israel's fficials said, is Riclwrd Armitage, who most recently settlement drive in the Occupied Tenitories, a major served as U.S. special negotiator on the American Palestinian demand, is high on Moscow's own agenda. military bases in tlu Pdlippines and has also also He told reporters in Amman Monday before flying served as a high-ranking Pentagon official. They said it to Cairo that the Soviet Union would "do its best to was also possible President Bush would nominate help solve this issue" at the peace conference. someone outside the governmcnt or Wrhdps a senior Mideast Minot's Amman correspondent quotes State D epartmcnt ffi cial. an informed source as saying Pankin had assured the Jordanians that Moscow would lobby for a settlement [] SAUDI: In other pre-conference coordination freeze "once the peace conference gets under way." moves, Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk ash-Sharaa flew In answer to a question on the massive Soviet to Jeddah late Monday and delivered a message to King Jewish emigration to Israel, Pankin said Moscow's Fahd from Assad, the official Syrian news agency relaxation of emigration policies applied to all Soviet SANA said. citizens but it was Moscow's "understanding" that lsrael It said the talks dealt with the need to formulate "a would not settle the immigrants in the occupied Arab unified Arab position at the peace conference" which lands. would enable the Arabs to regain their occupied lands and the Palestinians !o achieve their "national rights." [] REGIONAL: According to a report n abHayat, The Saudi cabinet, in a statement quoted in Jordan wants the multilateral Arab-Israeli talks on Tuesday's press, reaffirmed the kingdom's support for regional issues to be held because it is afraid it will be the Madrid peace conference and expressed the hope that saddled with another influx of Palestinian refugees from a lasting peace would be achieved, allowing the the Arab states. Palestinians to realize their "legitimate rights." The refugee issue is on the agenda of ttre multilateral talks, which Syria and the PLO say must not be held I WEIG]IED: Sari Nusseibeh, a prominenr, until there is progress toward a comprehensive peace Jerusalemite on the Palestinian advisory committee told settlemenL al-Hayat the upcoming peace talks were weighed in King Hussein has said Jordan would take pafl in the favor of Israel and would not give the Palestinians their peace talks, but his foreign minister later said it had not freedom and independence. been decided at which stage. But he said the Madrid conference was "part of a Quoting official Jordanian sowces, al-Hayot *id historic trend" and he predicted that future elections in Amman wanted the talks to produce a commitment by Israel would bring the L^abor Party back o power and the Arab states to naturalize Palestinian refugees on more productive talks would be launched. their teniories because in view of the fact that the West Bank and Gaza Strip are not economically capable of [] PANKIN: Arafat is expected to seek Moscow's absorbing the Palestinian diaspora, the only other support for the Palestinian position at the peace alternative would be ttre ransfer of ttre diaspora to conference when he meets Soviet Foreign Minister Jordan, which would "realize the Israeli extremists' Boris Pankin in Paris later today. dream of tuming Jordan into a Palestinian state."

17 Tuesday22 Octobcr,9l Mflrror Akhbar al-Khaleej: ttlsrael's secret sabotage plans"

Q British experts are quoted as saying the Israelis are plotting terrorist operations to blame on the Arabs A The pan-Arab al-Hayat baclcs Syrian objections to the multilateral tall

British Mideast experts quoted by a Bahraini daily the occupied fuab territories in 0re name of some of the Tuesday say Israel has "secret plans" to destabilize ttre rejectionist Arab groups." Middle East if the peace talks do not go is way. Joffe says his information indicates ttrat Israel is The paper, Althbar al-Khaleej, names two of the trying to "influence the course of events in Jordan in is experts as George Joffe and Don Ken. Kerr is favor," but he adds that his own view is that the Jewish associated with l,ondon's Conrol Risks Information state will find it difficult to infilrae the Arab Services. rejectionist gpups and prompt them to undertake the The Iondon-datelined report quotes these and other tenorist actions it wants. unnamed experts as saying tlrat Israel's acceptance of the Even if these sabotage efforts fail, he is quoted as invitation to the Madrid peace conference does not mean saying, Israel is likely to try to derail the conference by the Israeli leaders have decided to give peace priority dissolving the Knesset and holding elections "on the over their "expansionist agenda, their rejection of the pretext of consulting Israeli public opinion on the Palestinians' legitimate rights and their dreams of negotiations with the Arabs," which would freeze the gaining control of the Middle East by force of arms." peace process for a year. Rather, the Israeli leaders are "planning, after the But none of these attempts are likely to obsruct the initial meetings of the conference, to implement a secret peace talks "for many reasons, most important of which program aimed at derailing the conference if it becomes is America's insistence on holding them." clear that the Arab side will not accept what Israel Alchfur al-Khaleei quotes Ken as agreeing that \ryants." American pressure will "prevent Israel frrom implementing its plans to destroy tle conference, either [] SECRET PLAN: The "secret program," the by staging acts of violence in the Arab world and Israel British experts told the paper, includes: or by taking military action against Syria, Jordan, tr Staging fake attacks on Israel from Jordan and lcbanon or Iraq." South kbanon to "allow Israel to claim that the Arabs But Kerr adds: "This pressure cannot guarantee that are trying to undermine its security while it is Israel will not instigate security incidents in Jordan." participating in the peace conference." tr Mounting terrorist operations in various prts U SYRIA: The state-run Syrian press agrces of the world and blaming them on Syria and Palestinian wholeheartedly that the Israelis are out to desroy the and Lebanese groups. perce conference one way u another. tr Widening the gap between pro and anti-peace Tishreen says in a Tueday ediorial that the Jordanians, sowing Palestinian-Jordanian discord on the dispute over the conference witltin the Israeli issue and "exploiting the difficult economic conditions" government is "between extremists and extremists": of ttre Hashemite kingdom. Housing Minister Ariel Sharon and his followers want The paper quotes Joffe as saying there are signs the "an immediate confrontation with the United States and Israelis are planning "terrorist operations in Israel and the international community," while Prime Minister

Twsfuy22 October'91 18 Mfflfbr

Yitzhak Shamir and his group "want !o undermirrc the ensuring the success of the serious American peace drive conference from within, drowning it in problems that should collectively work to strengthen solidarity and to have nothing to do with the reasons for which it is adopt united stands against aggressive and expansionist being convened." Zionist ambitions and against Israel's own attempts The Shamirites' view, the paper says, is that the which aim, among other things, to enforce separate confrontation Shamir wants "is a gamble that carries deals and thereby o srip the conference of its c

19 Tusfuy22 Octofur'91 Mflffir

This Israeli attitude places tlrc conference in a supply of fuel from tlre Egyptian oil fields, along witlt deadlock "before it starts, if it doesn't lead to its failure an American undertaking o provide the oil if Egypt before it convenes," the paper says, adding: "We do not fails to. want to anticipate things, but it would be very useful Syria was right from the beginning to demand a for everyone to be vigilant and on guard against what unif,red Arab delegation !o ttrc alks with Israel, Riyad 'Israel' is prepring for the conference and the region says, but since that idea has been rejected by Israel and alike. the U.S., Damascus is urying o do the next best thing: "And here we would like to stress a maEer of coordinate wittr all the Arab panies in order o extreme importance, namely, that it is the Arabs that maximize world support for the Arab position and deal must be the most vigilant, because it is their funre as a intelligently with all the maneuvers Israel can safely be nation that is threatened." expected to rcsort to. Riyad supports the Synan call for coordination, not 0 DEFENSE: The kbanese pan-Arab Mily al- only o deal wittr t}e multilateral-bilateral linkage but Hayat, which is close to Saudi Arabia, rises to the also o make sure that the Arabs go to the peace talks defense of Syria's position Tuasday in an edioriat by with identical interpretations of Security Council George Semaan. Resolution 242. Some Arab leaders, he says without Semaan says Damascus, Beirut and the PLO are naming them, have made statements indicating that afraid that any regional gains Israel may make in the their understanding of that resolution is less than multilateral talks - like "recognition, normalization, an satisfactory, and these and other public pronouncements, end to lthe Arab] boycott [of Israel], a share of [the in his view, are partly responsible for the intransigence region'sl resources" -- beforc itreturns the Arabs'land to tlre Israeli leaders are demonstrating. them would eliminate any incentive it may have to Riyad devotes part of his lengthy op-ed piece o retum the land. praise for President Bush, whom he describes as the If Israel rakes in such gains before it settles its American president most qualified to bring peace to the conflict with the Arabs, the peace conference, which is Middle East because he knows the region well, is based on the land-for-peace principle, will be rendered backed by a skillful secretary of state, and "does nol meaningless, Semaan says. "It is not acceptable for have a Jewish National Security Adviser who puts Israel to enjoy normalization with the Arab states while American policy to work for the achievement of Israeli it maintains its conflict with ttre Syrians, the Lebanese goals as Hemy Kissinger did." and the Palestinians, and it is impossible for the other Another advantage Bush has, Riyad says, is that he Arab states attending the conference as participants or enjoys the backing of the Soviet Union and the observers to accept such an outcome. European Community, both of which support the "If there must be multilateral talks, therefore, there Arabs' rights, not !o mention the backing of the U.N., should be coordination not only among the Arab Ring whose General Assembly has left no doubt where its states [Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and the PLO] but sympathies lie. among all the Arab states invited to the conference, the "The only problem facing Bush as he tries to object being to build a unified position that would give implement his peace initiative in a sound way that Israel nothing at the multilateral talks unless it makes a satisfies the conscience of the world is 0re strength of substantive concession or concessions at the bilateral the Israeli organizations in the United States, most talks relating to the conflict. Any trend in any other powerful among which is AIPAC, which has influence direction would lead to an uncomprehensive, unjust and on many members of Congress," Riyad says. temporary peace settlement, which is not the purpose of He adds that Bush's success in delaying the debate on the invitation sent out by tU.S. President Georgel Bush Israel's request for $10 billion in loan gurantees over and [Soviet President MikhaiU Gorbachev." ttre objections of the Israeli lobby does not in his view mean that the lobby is weakening.. After all, Bush did U MAHMOUD RIYAD: Writing in the same paper, not reject ttre Israeli requesq he merely defened it. former Arab League Secretary General ldahmcmd Riyad "We will see many Israeli demands and maneuven in also supports the Syrian position: Israel, he says, is cooperation with the Jewish organizations to embarrass trying to establish linkage between the bilateral and President Bush and his aides and start mmors and multilateral talks, so that it can disrupt the negotiations charges against them, which is what ttrcy fthe Israelis over the occupied territories if the Arabs reject its and the lobby] are nusters at"" he says. economic demands. This is nothing new, he points out. Israel established the same linkage in is Camp David tl SAUDI: Another view of American-Israeli peace talks with Israel, agreeing to give back Sinai only relations is presented in the Saudi Asharq al-Awst guaranteeing normalization with Egypt and a steady by Walid Abi-Mershed, who says tlnt everyone is

Tuesday22 October'91 Miflfbr

talking about, two major trends in the Middle Fast - Bre Washington's road to the Arabs." Arab effort to implement Resolurions 242 utd 338 and the Israeli effort to achieve its version of peace - but a I E. JERUSALEM: In East Jerusalem, ash-Sluab third trend has gone unnoticed: the Americas tendency says in an ediorial ttrat while PLO Chairman Yaser towards the Arab world. Arafat strives to establish Arab coordination and meets The question that few are asking out loud but is with Soviet Foreign Minister Boris Pankin to "face nevertheless worrying many in Tel Aviv, he says, is: Moscow with is responsibility" to a just peace, "we What can Israel give Washington in the new world order look forward to seeing the international community more than the Arabs can give it? united and working with the same seriousness and The question, he says, reveals a "new reality" that firmness that it demonstrated against Iraq to establish a followed the Gulf crisis, in which Israel has been peace in the region based on Resolutions 42 and 338, transformed from an strategic asset into a which call for an exchange of land for peace. Wittput srategic/economic burden fon the U.S. this seriousness and frmness, we will continue !o "While it may be too early to speak about a paved regard America's peace talk as nothing but blaunt American road to the heart of ttre Arab region before deception and dust in the Arabs' eyes." Washington translates its new policy into a balanced Another East Jerusalem datly, an-Nahar, broaches settlement that is binding on Israel, the signs indicate the subjecs of the Palestinian refugees in the diaspor,a, that Washington is undertrking a root reevaluation of declaring that no peace settlement can be reached unless its Middle East policy," Abi-Mershed says. their problem is solved. "Washington appears to be drawing close to the The solution of their problem, it says, must be elimination of a major impediment to its relations with based on the UN resolutions that deal with it, and these the Arab region, the impediment of the pro-Israel bias call for their repariadon or compensation. An-Nahar that has characterized American diplomacy over four says the Palestinian refugees must be given the right O centuries [sic]. re[]rn to the liberated Palestinian territories plus "To the extent that the elimination of this obstacle compensation to allow them to rebuild their lives there. paves the Arabs' road to lvladrid, it also paves Billions of dollars will be needed for this, it says.

2I Tuesey22 Octobr'91 Mtrror LEBANON

French press for parliamentary elections in talks with Hrawi

Military aid also high on president's Paris agenda

French President Frangois Mter- last June appointed 40 MPs in an Dumas, announcing he would rand was reported on Tuesday to unprecedented move stipulated by visit Beirut next month, said the have prodded President Elias }Irawi the fuab-sponsored Taef accord. talks also focused on relations be- to organize free parliamentary elec- The l,ebanese pan-Arab duly al- nveen Syria and Irbanon. He said tions in Lebanon. Hayat Twsday quoted a diplomatic France had consistently supported Ikawi emerged from a 45- source in Paris as saying the the Taefaccord and had noticed "an minute t0te-i-t0te with Mittenand Mitterrand-Hrawi talks covered the impmvement in ttre situation in followed by a working lunch issue of organizing free elections in I*banon... and we believe that the asended by aides Monday to declare lcbanon. A French presidential exercise of total sovereignty re- the meeting was "better than any spokesman also said discussions dur- quires the exercise of the right to I've had so far" and that the French ing the working lunch dealt with vote. We believe that the Taef leader had accepted an invitation to "the details of organizing elections, accord must be implemented in full, visit kbanon. including preparing electoral lists." i.e. lead to the withdrawal of llrawi's official visit to Paris The same paper quoted an un- foreign forces (from Lebanon) and seals a rapprochement between tle identified French diplomat as the implementation of (Security Lebanese and French govemments describing last June's designation of Council) Resolution 425 (requiring following a long period of strained deputies as akin to a "barbaric" Israel to evacuate tlte Soutlt). relations over France's insistence on action by "a democratic state." He In an interview with the French granting political asylum tro said France, which had strongly daily Le Figaro publishcd Monday, Christian Gen. Michel Aoun, who criticized the move, supported the Hrawi said Syrian Preidcnt H$ez took shelter at the French embassy holding of free parliamentary Assad lwd told Nm Syrian forces in Beirut for l0 months after his elections in Lebanon. would pull out of Beirut to the ouster in a SyrianJed assault on his The diplomat also said France's eastern Belaa Valley next Year as Baabda Palace headquarters in demand that all foreign forces, in- required by theTaefaccord. He said October of last year. cluding Syria's, withdraw from he would lil

Tuesfuy22 October'91 22 M?ffir told the French television clnnrcl La Cinq Smday he could not think of any place in tla world otler tlan Freed US hostage flies to kbanon where clwrges were Germany for family reunion brought against citizens because Freed American hostage Jesse Turner, his l,Z3l-day ordeal in "lhey stood up to tlv occupation Lebanon over, flew to a U.S. airbase in Germany on Tuesday for a whereas collaboralors are in power reunion with his wife and to hug the four-year-old daughter he has and get interrwtional as sistance." never seen. Al-Hayat reryrts Tuesdoy that Turner, 44, was released by his fundamenalist kidnappers in pro-Aoun T-shirts and posters hatte Lebanon on Monday night and handed over to the U.S. ambassadm recently swfaced in Christian East in Damascus at tlre Syrian foreign ministry in tlre muning. Beirul, while anti-Aoun posters "I am very happy to be freed and I am looking fonvard !o see my lave appeared in the city of Jbail family and friends," he lold reporters in a brief ceremony. (Byblos) rarth of tlw capital. U.S. doctors examined him and passed him fit for the flight to the Air Force MILITARY: base at Wiesbaden, near Frankfurt, the U.S. embassy U thawi and said. Defense Minister Michel Mun also Turner, who taught mathematics and computer science at Beirut discussed French mititary aid to University Collage (BUC) until he was abducred on January 24, Lebanon with French Defense 1987, looked well and relaxed at the ceremony. He answered no Minister Pierre Joxe. questions and whispered to U.S. Ambassador Christopher Ross at Mun said the Irbanese side had his side before shrugging off a question on whether he had seen other expressed readiness its to honor hostages. some FF400 million ($69.5 mil- His l-ebanese wife Badr and his only daughter, Joanna, are lion) in debts owed to France for expected at Wiesbaden to meet him. Joanna was born months after military equipment purchased under his aMuction. a 1984 deal but needed a "grace Turner and three of his colleagues were kidnapped on the BUC period" in view of its crurent campu by gunmen posing as policemen giving a lesson on how to financial straits. He said much of avoid abduction. His kidnappers, Islamic Jihad for the Liberation of the equipment hught under tle Palestine, had already released two of the academics but one, FFI billion ($174 million) deal had American Alann Steen, is still with them. been damaged during the wff, The release of Turner is the latest phase in a complicated UN- particularly during rhe early 1990 mediated exchange of Middle East captives. The kidnap groups are clashes between Aoun's troops and swapping the Western fiosrnges for Lebanese prisoners held by Israel. Christian Irbanese Forces (LF) Israel is releasing the prisoners in exchange for missing Israeli militiamen, and the French were servicemen or their remains or hard information that ttrey are dead. queried about their readiness to help Since the latest round of releases began in August, kidnap goups repair it. Murr said the French had have set free two Americans, Edward Tracy and Turner, and two been "responsive" to the I-ebanese Britons, John McCarttry and Jack Mann. Israel has released a total of requests, but no decisions could be 66 prisoners, mostly kbanese Shiites, and obtained the remains of reached in one session of talks. one dead serviceman and confirmation that two othen are dead. The official part of Hrawi's visit to Paris ends Tuesday night, but he will be staying on for a couple of days before going to Rome and the Vatican. fighting between members of the tlrem. Two of the &ad and four Ja'far and Midlej clans in which wounded were Hizbollah members CLANS: Several people [] were mortars, machineguns, anti-tank while the other six killed were killed wounded or in clashes rockec and artillery were used. Jafars, according to the sources, between two Shiite Moslem clans The sources said Ja'far gunners who said the battles were sparked in the eastern town of Baalbeck shelled the Sheikh Abdallah bar- by the killing of a Midlej family Monday which pro-Iranian in the racks, a major base for the pro-Iran- member by a Ja'far a week ago. Hizbollah took part, according to ian Hizbollah where Western hos- Al-HalN, reporting frve dead press reports. tages are believed to have been held. and eight injured in the clashes, said Reuters quoted security sources They said Hizbollah milirans Syrian troops who control the area as saying at least eight people were then clashed with members of the intervened killed and arranged a cease-fire and 17 wounded in the Ja'far clan and captured some of benveen the warring sides.

23 Tuzsdoy 22 October'91 Mfffir IRAQ Harvard team warns that thousands will die without imported food, medicine and parts

Thousands of haqi children will die if the counory has since climbed to 80.0 deaths per thousand live does not quickly obtain food, medicine and spare parts birtlrs. from abroad, according to a report released on Tuesday The rise in infant and child mortality is likely due to by the International Commission on the Gulf Crisis a complex interaction of factors. There are acute recently reurmed from Baghdad. shortages of food and essential medicines throughout The 87-member team, organized by graduates of Iraq. In addition, lack of clean drinking water and poor Harvard University's schools of law and public health sanitation have greatly increased water'borne diseases, and funded by UNICEF, Oxfam-UK, the MacArthur such as cholera, typhoid, dysentory, and gastroenteritis. Foundation and the John Merck Fund, wamed that A random sample of 2,902 children showed that conditions faced by the Iraqi people as a result of the neuly 29 percent were malnourished, leading o the long-term effects of the Gulf crisis were worsening estimate that over 900,000Iraqi children are malnourish- dramatically and creating a public health and social ed nationwide, including 118,000 children who face an disaster. increased risk of dying. It based is findings on visits o 30 Iraqi cities and The incidence of severe malnutrition was greatest rural areas in all pars of the country from August 23 to among chil&en between one and two years of age, over September 5, which it noted were conducted without the one-third of whom are malnourished. interference or supewision of the government. And while it stopped short of making recommenda- Healthfacility survey tions, it stressed the urgent need for haq to import not The study team included five health professionals only food and medical supplies but equipment and pars who visited 29 hospitals and 17 community health to repair its power generation, water purification and centers located in nearly all govemorates of Iraq. sewage treatrnent facilities, many of which are on the Mortality for patients under five yean of age varied verge of collapse. dramatically throughout the country. For example, at The report emphasized the way runaway inflation Babel Pediatric Hospital, it has increased 3.9 times for since the crisis has exacerbated health and economic the flrst seven months of 1991 while at Diwaniya, an problems, estimating that the incidence of poverty in increase of 1.2 fold was documented. The incidence of tle once-prosperous country was now gleater than in diseases was similarly uneven. With the improvement India. of Baghdad's water supply the risk of communicable The following is a summary of the main findings of diseases in Baghdad has subsantially diminished in the team, which conducted separate surveys in eight key recent months, while in southern Iraq ttre mo6idity areas: pattern is subsantially more eute and remains at epidemic u near-epidemic levels. Child nurtaliry and nutition swvey Within hospitals, infant and child malnutrition is It is estimated that the mortality rate of children clearly the most significant problem documented. under five years of age is 380 percent greater today than Among in-patients at Erbil Pediatric Hospital, the before the onset of ttre Gulf crisis. prevalence of malnurition, as an admining diagnosis, Before the crisis, the mortality rate for children under was ?1 percent; at Suleimaniya, 66 percenq at Mosul, five years of age was 27.8 deaths per thousand live 66 percenq and at Ramadi Pediatric Hospital, 6l births. Since tlren it has increased to 101.4 deaths per percent. Food shortages and frequent gastroenteritis thousand live births. appear to have contributed to a very high level of Furthermore, it is estimated hat the mortality rate malnutrition. This is reflected in 6e large increase in of children under one year of age (the infant mortality Iow birth weight babies. As an example, in Kut, low rate) is 350 percent grcater than before the onset of the birth weight babies represent 3G50 percent of all live Gulf crisis. During January to August 1990, infant birtlrs compared to 12-14 percent in 1990. The cost of mortality wx 22.7 deaths per ttrousand live births but infant formula on the open market has increased 2,000-

Tuefuy22 October'91 u Mfflfbr

3,000 percent since August 1990. companies from Europe, Japan, and North America tlnt In addition, water-bome diseases, including typhoid, built or suplied all tlre power stations. gastroenteritis, and cholera are epidemic. Hepatitis has Finally, tlre snrdy team documented the profoundly increased throughout Iraq and by as much as one negative impact ttr,at the damaged and ill-repaired power hundredfold in some areas. Meningitis is now generation system has had on, and will continue to have widespread in southern Iraq. With the damage o chitd on, water purification and wastewater treatment and vaccination programs, such prevenable diseases as public health infrastnrcnre generally. measles and polio are also resurgenL Strained health facilities operate at only a fraction of Wuer and wastewater sysreral swvey pre-crisis levels. Most lack even basic medical supplies Much of Iraq's water and waterpurification facilities such as vaccines, antibiotics, anesthetics and syringes. function at only a fraction of pre-Gulf crisis levels or Medicines are in extremely short supply. As a not at all. Only one of 18 water treatment plants result, infectious diseases go untreated. There is little or inspected operated at 100 percent cryacity. Water no chloramphenicol for typhoid, fluids for rehydration disribution and purification suffer from minimal flow of those suffering from cholera or gastroentoritis, or and lack of chlmine which is being rationed at all antibiotics for meningitis. Lack of vaccines and poor plants. The primary factors impairing water treatrnent sanitary conditions have resulted in outbreaks of andpurification do not,result from damagecausedby the previously uncommon and preventable childhood war and civil uprisings, but from a lack of spare parts disease, such as polio, measles, and tetanus. and chlorine. Wastewater treatment" water delivery and Drugs for chronic diseases are also unavailable. The purification are also substantially limited by the lack of rate of coronary auacks has increased substantially electrical power. because patients with heart disease are dying because Reduced water flows and insufficient levels of they cannot obtain insulin. Children with treatable chlorine in the distribution syslem promote the leukemia are dying because anti-cancer drugs are largely incidence of water-borne diseases. The lack of elecrical non€xistenl Laboratories, X-ray units, neonatal units, power has eliminated wastewater Eeatment in Baghdad and operating theaters either do not function or provide and southern Iraq and raw sewage is being discharged only limited services. into waterways. Sewage treatment is also dramatically Due to lack of water and detergent, sanitation was reduced because of a lack of chlorine, spare parts and poor and water supplies sporadic in nearly every hos- reliable elecrical power. The study team estimates that pital visited. 30 percent of hospital water sources in the if current trends continue, the entire water treatment and south were grossly polluted with coliform indicating delivery system will deteriorate to the point of collapse. fecal contamination. In Kurdish areas, tested water sup- Within a matter of months, those critical public plies of hospitals found heavy coliform pollution. More- services are expected to be operating at only 5-10 over, the water that is supplied is often contaminated percent capcity. with fecal matter. lavatories are clogged. At several hospitals, raw sewage had backed up ino the wards. Environmeil and agricultwal survey Most of Iraq's population of 18 million is directly Ele ctrical facility swvey exposed to water-brne disease in their poEble water The project surveyed the conditions of most major supply. elecrical facilities in lraq. Out of 158 drinking water samples from all 18 During the Gulf crisis, enormous damage was governorates, 106 tested positive for gross coliform inflicted upon the electrical generation infrastructure. contamination and roughly half showed positive Since the cease-fue, elecrical generation has been evidence of gross fecal contamination. Only in Baghdad restored to about 68 percent of the 1990 peak Ioad but did over half the samples test negative. Team members to only 37 percent of the insralled capacity. The study documented unsanitary water source and waste disposal estimates 75 percent of electrical transmission lines are conditions in all cities surveyed. operable. All repairs have been done using salvaged Common conditions observed included: pars and improvised methods. l. Solid waste accumulating in the sreets due to Most of this repair, especially in the switchyards and the lack of collection and landfilling equipment first-span connections to transmission, does not, meet 2. Raw sewage overflows in the streeb and around normal standards of construction, imposes increased homes. safety risks, and is likely to bre{* down. Without spare 3. Raw sewage being dumped directly into the pars, replacement and further repair will not be rivers due to impaired or inoperable wastewater possible. The store of salvageable parts is depleted. Iraq treatrnent plants. does not have the capability to manufacture &e 4. Children bathing and playing in these rivers. necessary items. Many are specific to the foreign 5. People with little to no tap water supply be-

25 Tuesdry22 Octofur'91 Mflrror

cause impired or inoperable water fieatrnent and disri- covers at best one half of the nuritional needs of &e bution plants cannot generate adequate line pressure. population. Many households have to sell their asses 6. People drawing drinking water directly from the to complement fmd rations with market ptrchases. rivers, and The pralysis of economic activity and basic public 7. People drawing drinking water from holes dug services, inadequately compensated by food rationing, in watermains, which are often contaminated by cross- has been one of the major causes of nutritional connections from adjacent sewage pipes. depivation and enharrced mutality. Over 60 percent of the population in five of the seven governorates surveyed no longer have tap water Child psyclwbgy swvey available in their homes because of low water supply On the basis of in-depth interviews of 214 Iraqi system pressure. The low pressure is caused by lrck of children of pimary schml age, two professional child spare parts o maintain pumps, power outages, and psychologists report levels of anxiety, stress, and breaks in the water mains. pathological behavior unprecedented in their l5-year experience in this field. For example, nearly two-thirds Income and economic swvey of children interviewed believe that they will not More than a year of war and intemal conflicts have survive to become adults. Nearly 80 percentare afraid of had a disastrous impact on the economy. The losing her/his family through death or separation. destruction of the economic infrastructure and an acute Eighty percent experienced shelling at close distance. shortage of imported inputs have caused a considerable The researchers conclude that "the high propottion of decline of output and wage employment (especially in affected children clearly calls for a substantial national the private sector). The reduction of formal employment and international response to provide the necessary opportunities, and the general impoverishment of the technical, professional, and educational means... to help population, have led to a large-scale expansion of ttrese affected children." "informal" self-employment (e.g. street-vending). Overall money eamings have remained more or less Women swvey unchanged for the majority of the population since A report on the sate of women was compiled by August 1990. Over the same period, consumer prices three researchers who conducted in-depth interviews with have sharply increased, due to trade restriction, exchange- 80 haqi women. The collapsed Iraqi economy has driven rate depreciation and reductions in subsidies. The food many families to poverty. Due to the sanctions and the price index has risen by 1,500 o 2,000 percent. damaged water and electricity infrasructure, as well as Correspondingly, real earnings have fallen to less fuel and food shortages, 80 percent of women tlan seven percent of their pre-crisis level, in terms of interviewed described a situation where the burden of purchasing power over food. ln terms of private their domestic responsibilities had increased incomes, the incidence of poverty is now greater in Iraq significantly. Fifty-seven percent of the women reported than in, say, India. The collapse of private incomes has suffering from health problems. The lraqi people, been further aggravated by the deterioration of many especially the women, are overwhelmed by their daily basic public senrices. struggle to provide for their children even the most These adverse developments have been partly basic needs of food and water. Many women are forced compensated by the expansion of public food to sell their jewelry, and other household assets to raise distribution. Iraq's public disribution system, which money o buy food for ttreir children. The crisis is worst covers all residents (except in areas not currently in the case of vulnerable groups, such as widows, who administered by the government, particularly the north), do not have any personal assets to sell for food and is equitable and efficient. However, food disribution other basic necessities.

Tuesday22 October'91 26 Mffffbr TURKEY Demirel ponders coalition options

Who will Suleyman Demirel choose o partner his For ttre newly-elected partiament to oust the True Path Party (DYP) in a governing coalition? president -- who has five of his seven years in office left Following the publication on Tuesday of finat - to run -- it needs to muster the two-third majuity of - though still unofficial - results for Sunday's general 300 MPs required to change tlp constitution. elections, it became clear that in purely numerical terms the 67-year-old veteran politician has three options. [] YILMAZ: Outgoing Premier Mesut Yilmaz for With the DYP allocated 178 parliamentary seats his part said Monday he doubted ttre quest to oust Ozal (slightly less than earlier projections), it can muster a would succeed. simple majority in the 45O-member parliament in "I don't give much chance to oprposition prties partnership with eitlrer the Motherland Party (ANAP)'s doing what they said earlier about Ozal," he said after 115 MPs, the Social Democratic Populist Party submitting his government's resignation !o the (SHP)'s 88, or even the fundamentalist Welfare Party president. (RP)'s 62. Ozal assigned Yilmaz'adminisration to continue in The only other party in parliament is Bulent Ecevit's a caretaker capacity until Demirel forms a cabinet, Democratic lrft Party (DSP), which has ended up with sometlring he has 45 days o do. seven mandates. Yilmaz indicated that he preferred ANAP o lead the The general consensus Tuesday was that the Islamist opposition rather than team up in government with a gloup w,ls beyond the pale as far as the DYP's liberal party committed to the ouster of Ozal, who founded wing is concemed, and ttrerefore ruled out. ANAP and led it to two election wins before using its However, Demirel was keeping all his options open. parliamenury majority to have himself elected president He old a post-election news conference Monday that in 1989. a coalition was unavoidable and he would be discussing "The DYP has made promises which nobody can the matter with the various political parties in the keep. Now we are leaving the stage to them. Let them coming few days after the DYP leadership had come and keep their promises," Yilrnaz said. formulated a general line of ap,proach. He said the nation had voted to turn ANAP ino the "We do not reject anything.'We can't," he said when main opposition party, and he saw his duty as asked what kind of coalition he would like tll build. discharging that task in a responsible nranner. He also hinted that fresh elections might have to be He added that ANAFs relationship with OzaI wqrld called in the near future, while stressing this was not an be no different to lhat between the president and any issue for the time being. other opposition party. Reminded by one reporter that he had said during the election campaign that an unstable coalition [] INONU: At his post-election news conference government would make Turks look back with SHP leader Erdal Inonu -- whose party performed well nostalgia at the eight years of ANAP rule, he replied below expectations * hinted he was ready to tEam up that he had urged vot€rs to avoid puning a coalition into with Demirel. power but they had decided otherwise. "The thing to do now is o see how the DYP will "Are we supposed to leave Turkey without a acl Then our position will be clear€tr," he said" govemment? I said that to expliain ttrat a coalition is not "This does not mean that we want to form a a good idea. But it has a chance of being successful." coalition, and we are not in a position at present to say Asked if he would talk about the subject to President whether we are likely !o be in u outside govemment " Turgut Ozal - who Demirel does not recognize and has he said. pledged to unseat -- the DYP leader retorted: "I said I The SHP shares 8re DYP's goal of removing Ozal was going to the political parties. Is Cankaya (the but the two parties are far apart on a host of other presidential palace in Ankara) a political party?" issues, notrbly the Kurdish problem in the southeast Demirel said the "Cankaya issue" was closely linked to the question of forming a govemment, an apparent U DILEMMA: Cumhuriyets l{asan Cemal hint that he favored coalition partners who shared his remarked Tuesday that all the main parties faced a real goal of toppling the president. dilemma because of the inconclusive election result

27 Tuesdar22 October'91 lrrorIDEAST

Apan from the Welfare Party, which did pledged to crush Kurdish rebels seeking an independent considerably better than anticipated, nobody could be state in the southeast said o be happy with tlp outcome of the ballot. The IIEP disavows links with the Kurdish Workers "There is a certain air of wariness, and with good Party (PKK) which has been fighting an eight-year reason," he said. guerilla war with the army, but its supporters regularly "We cannot say that 'stability' is ttre force that chant pro-PKK slogans and the guerillas are reported to emerged from the polling booths. We don't know how have urged their supporters to vote for the SIIP-HEP. the game will be played on the political stage. We can't even say that the lead playen have decided what roles !o []OZAL: Milliyets Altan Oymen who assume." disrnissed talk of a DYP-RP coalitim as irponceivable - Assessing Demirel's coalition options as he retums - pointed to another facor mitigating against a to the premiership after 11 years, Cemal said Yilmaz governing alliance between Demirel and Inonu. probably genuinely prefened to stay out of governmenl He said the two parties differed sharply on a host of If the DYP leader opted for a link with the RP he foreign and domestic policies, meaning that the only would do himself incalculable harm. goals they could share concemed changing the This left him with the SHP option. But although consdnrdon and ousting Ozal. Inonu seemed willing to go along with the idea, the Yet the DYP and SHP combined would only conrol Social Democrats had emerged as ttre biggest losers in 266 seas -- enough !o govern, but not enough !o the election. remove the president. Demirel seemed to think that time and public sup- Why then, should Demirel seek a partnership with port would be needed for a DYP-SHP coalition to take the Social Democrats who opposed him ideologically? shape, particularly in light of the Socialists' alliance If, however, Demirel "drops the Ozal factor," he can with the HEP, the proKurdish People's Labor Party. form an alliance with ANAP, which shares many of his policy aims. [] KURDS: The HEP appeared to be emerging as a Such a partnership would probably be the "most headache for Inonu Tuesday, threatening to slash his positive" step for Demirel to take, but would require party's parliamentary presence by one quarter. some sort of agreement with Yilmaz -- if he agreed .. to The HEP was formed by Kurdish nationaliss who clip Ozal's wings. broke away from the SHP in 1989, but shared its slate Turkey's next prime minister, remarked Oymen, has at the elections after it was barred on a technicality from to cope with the fact that Ozal "apart from being the running independently. president, effectively runs the country." The SHP's success in the predominantly Kurdish southeast was mostly due to the IIEP, whose candidates [] VENDETTA: Sabah chief columnist Guneri accounted for 22 of the 88 parliamentary seats it won Civaoglu thought that Demirel would not back down nationwide. from his pledge to remove Ozal. HEP assistant secretary-general Ahmet Karatas Thus the focus in his coalition deliberations will not hinted Monday that the Kurdish deputies would now be so much on forming a cabinet as unseating the quit the SIIP and form their own parliamentary bloc. president. He said no definite decision had been taken, but Yet Demirel had o avoid giving the impression that warned: "Our remaining in the SIIP will only be he was pursuing a single-minded and aggressive vendetta possible if the SHP begins to think like the IIEP," against the president, Covaoglu wamed. especially regarding Kurdish human righs. Demirel would surely be hut if the perception grew The HEP's incompatibility with a DYP-SHP that he was giving his feud with Ozal priority over the alliance was further underlined Monday when Demirel govenurnce of the counEy.

Tuesfuy22 October'91