Delivered by Ingenta ? 5.101.217.181 Mon, 15 Oct 2018 21:48:51 Copyright Mohr Siebeck hr:i h ujc nesadn h iuto ntewytersace rspoe the presupposes researcher the way In 397) the do? p. in situation?” researchers the the situation understanding as the is consequences understanding subject those subjects subject of the the causes Do is the do? researchers short: of the understanding as same actions the their have of consequences of understanding same ae fesn aslepaain o h rcse htdieidvda cinor action the individual drive for that transitions. disappointed, processes phase felt the collective for I trigger explanations yet of causal and no understanding art, offers real the paper no of me state interest. gives the of paper at a phenomena is offers the It paper of covariates. the description of correlations Technically, statistical set of accurate large analysis a and the and crafted on interest carefully of focuses variable (2018) well-defined McCubbins a and between Katz by paper The O:1.68034671103616 07Mh Siebeck Mohr 2017 © – 10.1628/093245617X15120238641866 Economics DOI: Theoretical Guedes and Institutional Marcelo of Stern, Journal is Bassi author Rafael conference. the from the Finally, of received 2017. participants Italy, comments from and Syracuse, and Con- Nunes, Law, JITE advice the the for of for committee grateful Methods organizing Empirical the on and Hallmann, ference Regine Schäfer, Anja Ins Engel, Planck Max the State ciation; CEPID- the and – (gr FAPESP Development 2013/07375-0 Insti- Scientific Paulo; CEPID-CeMEAI the São IME-USP, (grants of from Foundation 2014/50279-4) University Shell-RCGI received Research the support Paulo of São the Statistics of for and grateful Mathematics is of tute author The Brazil. Paulo, Freprclwr nsca cec ocrywih,tersac utb bet show to able [ be using. must are research actors the the concepts weight, the carry knows to researcher science the social that in work empirical “For * M-S h nttt fMteaisadSaitc fteUiest fSão of University the of Statistics and Mathematics of Institute The – IME-USP Erklären Verstehen lwgvre description/prediction), (law-governed n miia ea Studies Legal Empirical and cua/nepeaieunderstanding), (causal/interpretative n Q310/012;AJ–teBr the – ABJ 301206/2011-2); PQ ant Nq–teBaiinNationa Brazilian the – CNPq ; iuefrRsac nCollectiv on Research for titute ui ihe Stern Michael Julio Introduction 1 Comment Mte .MCbisadMr unr 2012, Turner, Mark and McCubbins D. (Mathew by why hnshpe h a hyd;the do; they way the happen things 7,1514–IS 0932-4569 ISSN – 105–114 174, aoenBnpre(1769–1821) Bonaparte hope.) Napoleon in – dealer a is leader d’espérance. 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5.101.217.181 Mon, 15 Oct 2018 21:48:51 Copyright Mohr Siebeck sslce,adpopigefcieato,a eitda h o ftediagram. the of top the at depicted strategy as given capacity action, a its effective why is prompting and project and how company. this selected, saying consulting left for is explanations, the the used causal at model on interpretable or tasks theoretical produce bank the to modeling investment of the the property of while distinctive office exchange, place A back stock take the the diagram in at the place or of take desk side right trading the the on at depicted activities Operational system. the partners. sug- involved making all the and for action, for required success explanation the a intuitive) take project In and to interpretable traders 1981). the is, could Wysotzki, encouraging REAL (that strategy, and by good gested built Unger a tree offer and classification to the 1984, used of be al., branch pertinent et the trees Breiman system, decision classification new 1998, this the constructing al., of for et algorithm version an Stern second – (see the REAL mar- on implement the based to accessing system of opted support way we preferred Hence, traders’ behavior. the with 1988). ket was indicators Mayers, ranges key significant and meaningful very some in Colby having were values on (see traders based these indicators” explanation short that “technical a clear Moreover, so-called became the it this with interviews, in some familiar a step After constituted first hand. what at The research necessary. case to if was scratch process from reengineering restarting project, explanations. the question) reengineer “why” a contemplating answering not (i.e., power, de- causal to predictive generating used maximum of methods for purpose the chosen statistical the work were and should tools system this operation technological velop given never the Moreover, a specifications software does. why system The it for act. initial way explanations to the (causal) confidence for giving enough disappointed, included lacked and they astonished risk; was implied team the take to tion tra the understanding, an such conditions. market on similar based under analyses This performance statistical past conditions. condensed strategies’ liquidity presented suggested limit also auxiliary the software expiration plus the strategy time mar- of by the closing version (b) current defined day’s and first its operation trading price, asset’s at the intraday the by sold an on defined or limits closing upper bought for and be conditions lower (a) to specific boundary suggest asset plus to an able price, was by ket system This defined model). strategies similar a operation for 2009, al., et Lauretto a nbet rvd any provide help to not did unable software was the that asked complained When traders to prospects. the them hesitation, statistical the their excellent accepting for had in reason they the hesitant if very even were operations, traders suggested our human to supervising However, benchmarks. the historical astonishment, desk’s trading the exceeding performance (2018) h gr rsnsadarmdsrbn h nomto o ntetrading the in flow information the describing diagram a presents figure The to decided we right, always is customer (well-paying) a since Nevertheless, to programmed was system The (see networks polynomial hybrid on based was software this of version first The nesadwhy understand ie prto taeysol ok hti,tesystem the is, that work, should strategy operation given a insight osiuin fException of Constitutions esdcae hyddnthv h eesr convic- necessary the have not did they declared ders or nysgetoeainstr operation suggest only intuition bu h rcs thn.Without hand. at process the about odexplanation good tge ihexpected with ategies nthe in 107 Delivered by Ingenta ? 5.101.217.181 Mon, 15 Oct 2018 21:48:51 Copyright Mohr Siebeck hnteoiia nuevsddcso system. market performance decision detect better final unsupervised overall better original plus having the could situations, algorithm than high-risk supervision) decision-tree screen (expert better REAL and opinion the anomalies expert on on example, For based based synergic. system scrutiny and role. decision complementary descriptive/predictive be final to straightforward the proved and roles standard two its the Moreover, to opposed as 1995), efc o h rttm h oeof role the time first the for face me prices equilibrium by 2012, 1990). reflected Israel, Stern, (non- are and and global turn, Cerezetti in by (see of that, characterized (eigenvalues) forms sustainable equilibria are in markets statistical) engage trading stationary, to sustainable agents conditions, investment Such establish nonarbitrage multiple interaction. must so-called allow authorities the turn to regulating in level, leading which global legislation a fair-trade At enforce market. and the in agent Stern single and Borges 2017a). (2001), 2014, Segal 2011, (2007a,b, 305–323), Stern pp. and (2003, (2007), Foerster charac- mathematical von their see and properties terization, essential four these on comments the further by of characterized properties are essential four Eigensolutions etc. eigenvalues, eigenvectors, functions, of as jargon known the are or forms In invariant behaviors. or patterns reliable stable revealing such theory, interaction, systems of forms diagram. invariant the or of duct bottom the at depicted as performance, efficient achieve m to the used is of tuning fine continuous Meanwhile, 108 eoeedn hsscin oelast some section, this ending Before a concerning activities is, that level, local a at activities describes figure The con- of patterns stable to converge will system the conditions, favorable Under eigensolutions hoeia — Theoretical optn eibebhvosexecution behaviors Reliable computing estimation aaee ttsia Data Statistical Parameter rdcieEgnouin/Market Eigensolutions/ Predictive eeto xlnto supervision explanation selection n hi soitdqatte fitrs r nw seigen- as known are interest of quantities associated their and , Strategy oe — model *+ *+ rd ytmPouto Diagram Production System Trade precision ( ) ui ihe Stern Michael Julio ttsisa rnildargument principled as statistics Verstehen , Erklären learning Causal stability Figure omns hsconsu This comments: dlprmtr ysaitcllearning statistical by parameters odel , separability en,20,Dta,19,Ingrao 1990, Dothan, 2009, Cerný, ˇ ( ) —Actual operation — Interpretative acquisition ,and composability tn rjc made project lting eigenbehaviors seAbelson, (see IE174 JITE .For Delivered by Ingenta ? 5.101.217.181 Mon, 15 Oct 2018 21:48:51 Copyright Mohr Siebeck (2018) uooei)sse,frtene fboth of need the for system, autopoietic) legal empirical perspective. for fundamental concepts more these a of follow from we importance studies the section (or this investigating eigensolutions in route, Nevertheless, different economic context. a legal transport the to tempt- to of ways conditions) plenty equilibrium has possible to economics suggesting and extrapolated law be examples of can field ing emerging conclusions The general to range. come our wider much actually of a patterns some behavioral in believe pat- these I helpful behavioral how Nevertheless, and was of be. process characteristics situation this important in This emerging several me- system. terns clear were support making processes decision decision and human examining algorithmic section, an last by the in diated discussed example the In esadn sntavldecs o raigtelw hspicpei logical cor- a could is nor enforced principle consistently This be law. laws the could breaking neither for it without excuse for valid necessity, a not is derstanding offenders. p for inexcusability-of-ignorance com- punishment or of repair for of form form the remediation the in providing in or of either victims, broken, role for is pensation the describe law the to has when try system expectations simultaneously legal frustrated they the that Finally, coevolving society dynamic, regulate. the More- essentially and in are patterns. patterns laws behavioral behavioral and the norms well-defined with both of perspective, time this adoption same in the the over, at society, inducing a in and behavior reflecting of rules well-defined establish laws is specific system legal Luhmann’s expectations In the behavior initially 40). of p. is mative function (1985, norm the Luhmann a law, see Hence, of model; be. subjective theory should a or reality how projection, a of only model idealized an concerns it orig- Luhmann’s of power the increasing po- and work. the scope inal with the century, All expanding current 1979). further the Varela, of in and developed tential 1988; greatly and been Ost, Maturana have 2007; 305–323; frameworks Rusch, pp. these 2003, 1988; 1990a,b, Foerster, Rottleuthner, 1989, von 1980; 1985, 2001; Varela, in Segal, Luhmann, Luhmann 2005; (see by Brier, theories also used sociological and been his already of have development they for the constructivism, cognitive and ory hoyo Law of philosophy. legal Theory of framework to theoretical these order a in Discussing choose Hence, to context. questions. need legal we ontological the advance, and in eigen- epistemological of time core emergence involves this the points to only tied eigensolutions, be will or discussion behaviors our section, last the in presented h olo hsscini oage tityi h cp ftelgl(autonomous/ legal the of scope the in strictly argue, to is section this of goal The goatajrsnnexcusat non juris Ignorantia a view, Luhmann’s In stertclfaeokw lc ilsLhans(1927–1998) Luhmann’s Niklas elect we framework theoretical As om,Lw,Egneair,adSca System Social and Eigenbehaviors, Laws, Norms, 3 opeetdb h oegnrlfaeok fssesthe- systems of frameworks general more the by complemented , norm osiuin fException of Constitutions icpe codn owhi to according rinciple, seLhan 95 p 7 2.Lglcdsand codes Legal 82). 77, pp. 1985, Luhmann, (see osntcnencgiino ata elt;rather, reality; factual of cognition concern not does or goatalgsnmnmexcusat neminem legis ignorantia Verstehen ogun eeaiaino nor- of generalization congruent and Erklären hinrneo ako un- of lack or ignorance ch si h example the in As . Sociological ttsthe states 109 Delivered by Ingenta ? 5.101.217.181 Mon, 15 Oct 2018 21:48:51 Copyright Mohr Siebeck 110 h hl ea ytma h o ee,adagetvreyo ntttos organi- Luhmann Moreover, institutions, levels. of lower variety at great entities a legal and including participating level, top other – the and elements at zations, systemic system towards legal and whole beings the human law? individual Luhmann, of from Niklas theory social away by the raised in issue interest of important agents an primary by address the are inspired to who need opportunities namely: I specific direction, few this a in on work focus previous again) will (once I picking? overcome. the to for sec- ripe difficulties of opportunities the there paragraph Is are last Or question: the thinking? the with wishful Hence just accordance 3 studies. in tion legal programs research empirical conceptual of involved of the proliferation field or the motivations in causal collective their understandings and agents to individual linked of specifically modeling behavior statistical in work little relatively been of field the in matters related studies. and legal phenomena, col- change or individual opinion motivation, explanations, lective causal Macrae, understandings, Blanc, agent (2015) see individual Stern V models; addressing and interpretable and developing Takada (2015) in and Ottimofiore work and (2010) own our Stern of and some Inhasz for ( see Pearl – techniques; (2013a,b, and Engel tradition (2016), statistical (2009), respected Mislevy al. and et and Engel long Levy see a 2015), perspectives; has historical for processes (2010) same Feest the see in terms participating in (e actors processes used ual social concepts understanding or of attributed idea meanings the of sections, last the in reviewed As effects. taking higher-order also or eigenbehaviors, second-order pertinent pro- relevant from) the account divergence the into track (or of should to agents convergence studies of participating follow-up al- cess the and such how by preliminary to Finally, understood society. attention and affected close perceived, pay known, should are legislators terations system, legal a disrupting or emergenc sustainable the and induce to stable, capacity reliable, legislator of Hence, interaction. establishment of the forms on depends compliance harmony and spe- comply; social in and agents) coded participating understanding, are other knowledge, they (and involves individuals as if – – expectations laws normative cific of generalization congruent understood. of and perceived, known, are not laws should which legislators in wise ways Nevertheless, the ignore applied. coherently be measures rective ntesoeo ea tde,Lhanrdrcstesolgto u attention our of spotlight the redirects Luhmann studies, legal of scope the In some also and explore, to opportunities many optimism, for reasons good see I has there economics), and law of route indirect or collateral the from (aside Still goal its achieve only can system legal the framework, theoretical Luhmann’s In ihu hnigo iefrtePicking? the for Ripe or Thinking Wishful 4 fPoesrMCbis How McCubbins. Professor of emn 21,21)frrcn xmlso work of examples recent for 2014) (2011, oermans ui ihe Stern Michael Julio fegneair.Cons eigenbehaviors. of e hudtk noacuttelglsystem’s legal the account into take should s cetneo h aelw.Moreover, laws. same the of acceptance te xlctyo mlcty yindivid- by implicitly) or explicitly ither 00 o eetoeveso useful of overviews recent for 2000) vr eoeproceeding before ever, altering when equently, IE174 JITE Delivered by Ingenta ? 5.101.217.181 Mon, 15 Oct 2018 21:48:51 Copyright Mohr Siebeck 95 99 90,;adTunr 98.Tels on smd la ntefol- the in clear made is point Luhmann, last (see The analysis 1988). quotation: empirical) Teubner, lowing and also 1990a,b; hence 1989, (and 1985, theoretical for suitable most pcfis(systemic) specifies ln,Foetn(d) oadMca,adGuep tiooe(2015), Ottimofiore Giuseppa and Macrae, Donald (ed.), Florentin Blanc, blo,Rbr .(1995), P. Robert Abelson, (2018) a ensadoecmn osqetmtoooia difficulties. methodological consequent overcoming and beings man iae ntrso h ytmsotlg) viighwvrtene fmaking of need the however commu- inaccessi avoiding and expressed concerning ontology), as system’s hypotheses is, the allow cumbersome that (as of may interact, terms agents they information in participating which of nicated in of kind system understandings This the by and 2011). recognized motivations al., al., of et et analyses Sartor Ferneda empirical and example, for 2005, (see, in- Mika, analysis, construction 2012, text ontology automated for and developed communi- documents) tools extraction, systemic of (legal formation variety of Content a using studies. contents processed empirical be and for can structure available both readily become digital, cation to paper from change sug- context abstract the framework. in communi- Luhmann’s applied by in immediately gested processes be could decision of which networks, analysis cation the for McCub- tools hand, Enemar computational other and developed the (2009) of Weller form On and the etc. in Paturi, functions, or bins, motivations utility manifested constraints, of preferences, form the elicited in either beings, human vidual 03 aecerhwcalnigi a eto be can it (2012, challenging Weller and how Turner, difficulties clear McCubbins, traditional make hand, overcoming 2013) one in On example: helpful For be bottlenecks. may and that inquiry of ways explored odn amn 20) Tere fSca cin”i:SesradBle (2001), Baltes and Smelser in: Action,” Social of “Theories (2001), Raymond Boudon, ogs anr n ui ihe tr 20) TeRlso oi opsto o the for Composition Logic of Rules “The (2007), Stern Michael Julio and Wagner, Borges, awh(NJ). Mahwah utemr,a h ei fssei omncto nmdr societies modern in communication systemic of media the as Furthermore, eiv hsfaeokt eaeal omn lentv n tl little- still and alternative many to amenable be to framework this 7) believe p. 1989, I (Luhmann, candidate.” appropriate most and the general ope be in the to systems particular seems social in help For society the (autopoiesis). of with operations system and same the system the the of within network only self- a to produced of (individuals) be substances can from that changed operations be referential must elements system of idea “The p 54–58. pp. aeinEitmcE-Values,” Epistemic Bayesian International 2017. Regulation 9, from October and accessed Lessons the-risk-regulation-reflex, Responsibility Reflex: Risk, or-and-kingdom-relations/documents/reports/2015/01/21/understanding-and-addressing- Regulation https://www.government.nl/ministries/ministry-of-the-interi with Programme, Risk Dealing Responsibility the in Addressing Experience and standing communication ttsisa rnildArgument Principled as Statistics osiuin fException of Constitutions oi ora fteIGPL the of Journal Logic References prtosa h omo oilinteraction social of form the as operations aino sl-eeeta)communication (self-referential) of ration ,MCbis n elr(04 have (2014) Weller and McCubbins, k, l nenlstate internal ble ceste“internal” the access arneElamAssociates, Erlbaum Lawrence , 556,401–420. 15(5/6), , fidvda hu- individual of s uc ikand Risk Dutch , ttso indi- of states Under- 111 Delivered by Ingenta ? 5.101.217.181 Mon, 15 Oct 2018 21:48:51 Copyright Mohr Siebeck arto .S,F aao .A .Pria n .M tr 20) Heacia Forecast- “Hierarchical (2009), Stern M. J. and Pereira, B. A. C. Nakano, F. S., M. Lauretto, (1990), U. Michael Dothan, ob,Rbr . n hmsA aes(1988), Mayers A. Thomas and W., Robert Colby, Cybersemi- A Communication: and Information of Construction “The (2005), Søren Brier, az oahnN,adMte .MCbis(08,“osiuin fEcpin The Exception: of “Constitutions (2018), McCubbins D. Mathew and N., Jonathan Pro- Katz, Genetic in Semiotics “Emergent (2010), Stern Michael Julio and Rafael, Inhasz, (1990), Israel Giorgio and Bruna, Ingrao, Mar- and Batista, Herrmann Augusto Prado, do Antonio Hércules Edilson, Ferneda, Comment,” Instrument: an as Law the about Information “Randomized Sanders (2015), the — of Lecture Inaugural Impossible?” Mission Experiments: “Legal (2013b), — Working Methods,” Empirical Economics: and Law “Behavioral (2013a), and Christoph “Knowledge Engel, (2014), Weller Nicholas and McCubbins, D. Mathew Daniel, Enemark, es,Ujn e. (2010), (ed.) Uljana Feest, Probation: “On (2009), Kube Sebastian and Irlenbusch, Bernd Hennig-Schmidt, Heike —, (1984), Stone J. Charles and Olshen, A. Richard Friedman, H. Jerome (2001), Leo, Baltes Breiman, and Smelser in: Erklären,” and Verstehen of “Philosophy (2001), Jan Bransen, 112 en,Ae (2009), Aleš Cerný, A Markets: Financial in “Non-Arbitrage (2012), Stern Michael Julio and V., F. Cerezetti, ˇ n ihPlnma es”i:Kzm aaas,Goi hlisWe,Lkm .Jan, C. Lakhmi Phillips-Wren, Gloria Nakamatsu, Kazumi in: Nets,” Polynomial with ing Indicators d. rneo nvriyPes rneo (NJ). Princeton Press, University Princeton edn., Cy- Second-Order of Construction Metaphysical Foerster’s von bernetics,” Heinz into Reentry otic osiuinlFudtoso h nerpino xctv n eiltv Function,” Legislative (JITE) and Economics Executive Theoretical of and Institutional Interruption of the Journal of Foundations Constitutional Walter Magnani, 381–392. pp. Discovery Lorenzo Computational and in: Logic, (eds.), Crossover,” Abduction, Pizzi Semantic Claudio and Self-Adaptive Carnielli, the and gramming Science of History Heidelberg, and Berlin Springer-Verlag, 7335, Volume 631–646. Science pp. III Computer Part Proceedings, on 2012, C. Notes June A. Brazil, ture in: Bahia, Maria Texts,” de Ana Salvador Legal Conference, Nedjah, ternational Brazilian Nadia (eds.), Misra, al. from et Sanjay Definitions Rocha, Gervasi, Osvaldo “Extracting Murgante, (2012), Beniamino Pinheiro Sandi cello drecht. (JITE) Economics Theoretical and Institutional Eleven of Rotterdam, Law, of School Hague. University The Erasmus Publishing, International at Goods, Internationalisation Collective for on Chair Research for Institute Planck Max the Bonn. of Preprints 2013/1, Coordination,” Paper Affects Knowledge Network How of Networks Test Social Experimental An Networks: York. nEprmna nlss”WrigPpr20/8 rpit fteMxPac Insti- Planck Bonn. Max Goods, the Collective of on Preprints Research 2009/38, for Paper tute Working Analysis,” Experimental An 16165–16170. pp. is BB21,Apr P rzl 82 ac 2012, March 87–96. 18–22 pp. Brazil, SP, 1490, Volume – Amparo (eds.), 2012, Lauretto, Diniz EBEB Souza Alves tics: de Marcio Marcelo and Stern, Polpo, Michael Adriano Julio in: Verification,” for Approach Bayesian Trees Regression and sification o oe–ri,Hmwo (IL). Homewood Jones–Irwin, Dow , Semiotica 6 122–133. 36, , ahmtclTcnqe nFnne ol o nopeeMarkets Incomplete for Tools Finance: in Techniques Mathematical h I rs,Cmrde(MA). Cambridge Press, MIT The , opttoa cec n t plctos–ICA21:1t In- 12th 2012: ICCSA – Applications its and Science Computational 5(/) 355–399. 154(1/4), , itrclPrpcie nEkäe n Verstehen and Erklären on Perspectives Historical rcsi iaca Markets Financial in Prices hpa al London. Hall, & Chapman , ui ihe Stern Michael Julio oe-ae esnn nSineadTechnology: and Science in Reasoning Model-Based h niil ad cnmcEulbimi the in Equilibrium Economic Hand: Invisible The IBaiinMeigo aeinStatis- Bayesian on Meeting Brazilian XI pigrVra,Bri n Heidelberg, and Berlin Springer-Verlag, , h nylpdao ehia Market Technical of Encyclopedia The 7() 171–175. 171(1), , xodUiest rs,New Press, University Oxford , 7() forthcoming. 174(1), , I ofrneProceedings Conference AIP pigr Dor- Springer, , IE174 JITE Journal Lec- , Clas- 2nd , Delivered by Ingenta ? 5.101.217.181 Mon, 15 Oct 2018 21:48:51 Copyright Mohr Siebeck (2018) atr ivni opuCsnvs ai neaBaiti n eixl Fernández- Meritxell and Biasiotti, Angela Maria Casanovas, Pompeu Giovanni, Culture,” and Sartor, Cognition of Regulation Mutual The “Understanding: (2007), (1988), Gebhard Teubner Rusch, in: Thought,” Legal in Metaphors “Biological (1988), Hubert Rottleuthner, ea,Ln (2001), Lynn Segal, (2000), (1988), Teubner Judea in: Law,” Pearl, of Game The Disorder: and Order “Between (1988), François Ost, Seman- and Networks Social of Model Unified A Us: Are “Ontologies (2005), Peter Mika, in: Equilibrium,” Response Quantal of Foundations the “Testing (2013), — and —, —, Jay Shanchieh in: Theory,” Game of Mythology “The (2012), Weller Nicholas and —, —, n akTre 21) GigCgiie ol o euligteSca Sciences,” Social the Rebuilding for Tools Cognitive: “Going (2012), Turner Mark and — Coor- “Connected (2009), Weller Nicholas and Paturi, Ramamohan D., Mathew McCubbins, (1980), Varela J. 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