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Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives Technology Energy Nordic Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives Pathways to a Carbon Neutral Energy Future Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives at a glance The five Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden have announced ambitious goals towards decarbonising their energy systems by 2050. Based on the scenarios and analysis of Energy Technology Perspectives 2012, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and leading Nordic research institutions jointly assess how the Nordic region can achieve a carbon-neutral energy system by 2050. Without doubt, the Nordic countries are front-runners in taking decisive action toward clear, long-term energy targets. In examining their approach, this project aims to provide objective analysis that will increase the Nordic region’s chances of success. A secondary – but ultimately more important – aim is to prompt other countries and regions to follow their lead. The report identifies five central challenges that the Nordic countries face in achieving a carbon-neutral energy system. Other countries seeking to radically transform their energy systems should take note. ■ Energy efficiency improvement remains a priority policy area. Policies to ensure rapid and sustained energy efficiency improvements will be necessary in all scenarios, especially in buildings and industry. ■ Infrastructure development will be a critical policy challenge. The significant need for new infrastructure in electricity grids and generation will not only pose technological and financing challenges, but will also require social acceptance. ■ Carbon capture and storage (CCS) plays an important role, especially in industry. Progress in this technology has been slow and uncoordinated between countries. Governments must scale-up policy action for this technology to realise its full potential. ■ Bioenergy will be the single largest energy carrier in 2050, raising questions over its supply. The Carbon Neutral Scenario projects a net import of bioenergy to the Nordic region, making sustainability criteria all the more important. ■ Nordic co-operation is a prerequisite to reducing the cost in achieving the scenarios. Regional co-operation in infrastructure development, RD&D and in strategies for transport and CCS would offer significant benefits. Visit our website for interactive tools and more extensive data coverage www.iea.org/etp/nordic ISBN: 978-82-92874-24-0 Copyright © 2013 Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives OECD/IEA, 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France Nordic Energy Research, Stensberggata 25, NO-0170 Oslo, Norway, Risø DTU, EA Energianalyse A/S, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, University of Iceland, National Energy Authority of Iceland, Icelandic Meteorological Institute, Landsvirkjun, Institute for Energy Technology, SINTEF Energy Research, IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Chalmers University of Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Luleå University of Technology. No reproduction, translation or other use of this publication, or any portion thereof, may be made without prior written permission. Applications should be sent to: [email protected] This Nordic ETP technology paper is the result of a collaborative effort between the International Energy Agency (IEA), Nordic Energy Research (NER), Risø DTU, Ea Energianalyse A/S, (EAEA), VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT), University of Iceland (UI), National Energy Authority of Iceland (NEA), Icelandic Meteorological Institute (IMI), Landsvirkjun, Institute For Energy Technology (IFE), SINTEF Energy Research (SINTEF), Profu Ab (Profu), IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL), Chalmers University of Technology (Chalmers), KTH Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) and Luleå University of Technology (LTU). This Nordic ETP technology paper reflects the views of the IEA Secretariat, NER, Risø DTU, EAEA, VTT, UI, NEA, IMI, Landsvirkjun, IFE, SINTEF, Profu, IVL, Chalmers, KTH and LTU, but does not necessarily reflect those of their respective individual Member countries or funders. The Nordic ETP technology paper does not constitute professional advice on any specific issue or situation. NER, the IEA, Risø DTU, EAEA, VTT, UI, NEA, IMI, Landsvirkjun, IFE, SINTEF, Profu, IVL, Chalmers, KTH and LTU make no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect of the contents of the Nordic ETP technology paper (including its completeness or accuracy) and shall not be responsible for any use of, or reliance on, the roadmap. For further information, please contact: [email protected]. Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives Pathways to a Carbon Neutral Energy Future Explore the data behind NETP www.iea.org/etp/nordic The IEA is making available the data used to create the Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives publication. Interactive data visualisations and extensive additional data are available on the IEA website for free. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agency’s aims include the following objectives: n Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. n Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. n Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. n Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea (Republic of) Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic © OECD/IEA, 2012 Spain International Energy Agency Sweden 9 rue de la Fédération Switzerland 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France Turkey www.iea.org United Kingdom Please note that this publication United States is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The European Commission The terms and conditions are available online at also participates in http://www.iea.org/termsandconditionsuseandcopyright/ the work of the IEA. p2_2012_20x27_Q.indd 1 7/2/2012 2:55:09 PM Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives Table of Contents 3 Table of Contents Introduction 7 Foreword 7 Executive Summary 8 Acknowledgements 13 Contact 15 Chapter 1 Choosing the Future Nordic Energy System 17 Nordic ETP: regional choices in a global context 18 The Nordic energy system at a glance 21 Looking ahead: changes in Nordic energy flows 31 Chapter 2 Nordic Policies and Targets 35 Long-term targets in the Nordic countries 36 RD&D in focus in the Nordic countries 38 Experience in the use of energy and carbon taxation 43 A market-driven approach 47 Chapter 3 Power Generation and District Heating 53 Recent trends 54 Scenario results 60 Technology spotlights 72 Critical challenges 79 © OECD/IEA, 2013. 4 Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives Table of Contents Chapter 4 Industry 81 Recent trends 82 Scenario assumptions 85 Scenario results for industrial energy use 88 Scenario results for industrial CO2 emissions 89 Investment needed to decarbonise Nordic industry 90 Technology spotlights 90 Critical challenges 96 Chapter 5 Transport 99 Recent trends 100 Transport sector scenario results 106 Important developments up to 2030 and beyond 117 CO2 emissions in transport 120 Cost of decarbonising the Nordic transport sector 121 Technology spotlights 122 Critical challenges 127 Chapter 6 Buildings 129 Recent trends 130 Scenario assumptions 136 Scenario results 137 Technology spotlights 141 Critical challenges 146 Chapter 7 Conclusions 149 Policy challenges 150 © OECD/IEA, 2013. Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives Table of Contents 5 Annexes 156 A. Analytical Approach 157 B. Framework Assumptions 161 C. Central Assumptions for Sector Modelling 163 D. Notes on Electricity Prices 174 E. Notes on Primary Energy Conventions 183 F. Definitions 185 G. References 194 H. List of Figures, Boxes and Tables 200 © OECD/IEA, 2013. Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives Foreword 7 Foreword If we are to realise a clean energy future globally, we cannot sit idle waiting for the lowest common denominator. Some regions must lead the transition towards a cleaner future, realising both the costs and benefits of being first. The Nordic countries have set ambitious political targets towards 2050 and have the unique possibility of assuming this leadership role. Achieving these political targets will not be easy.
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