2017 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (BIGDATA)
Analysis of EXILE TRIBE in the Music Scene Using Mathematical Model of Hit Phenomenon
Toshimichi Wakabayashi Yasuko Kawahata Akira Ishii Tottori University Gunma University Tottori University Tottori,Japan Maebashi,Japan Tottori,Japan [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Abstract-We performed an analysis of live EXILE TRIBE performances using a mathematical model . EXILE TRIBE is phenomenon represented by several diverse group of artists representing Japan. Therefore, it is an interesting object for analysis. Analysis was carried out using a mathematical model of the hit phenomenon by considering each parameter obtained from Twitter and blog posts concerning EXILE TRIBE live as input. There were some differences in parameters depending on the size of the tour. This paper quantitatively explains changes in the Figure 1. Changes in sales of CDs and concerts: Figures are cited in [5] number of people involved in one concert event and the propagation tendency of rumors as a result.
Keywords- Mathematical model of hit phenomenon, Twitter,Blog,EXILE TRIBE
I. INTRODUCTION In recent years, use of smartphones and tablet terminals has spread rapidly allowing easy use of Simple Notification Services (SNS) . SNS facilitates information-sharing via social media channels, such as Figure 2. The Sandaime J Soul Brothers audiences Twitter, Blog, and Instagram, in real time [1]. We analyze text messages used to communication on SNS. In conducting the analysis, we use a mathematical model of a hit phenomenon [2-3]. Past research has succeeded in applying mathematical models for predicting the rank of musical group AKB-48 and hit prediction of movies [4]. Also, ‘Yasuko Kawahata et al.’ has succeeded in applying mathematical models to various artists' music concerts [5]. In recent years, CD
sales have been decreasing. On the other hand, live sales Figure 3. EXILE TRIBE audiences are increasing year by year (Fig. 1)[6]. EXILE’s dance and vocal unit established a fusion of EXILE TRIBE held HiGH & LOW as the world's first dance and music and allowed dancers to play an active comprehensive entertainment project in 2016, not only in part during live band performances. In 2008, EXILE live venues but also in movies and dramas. The TRIBE’s total domestic sales of albums, singles, and Sandaime J Soul Brothers was awarded the Japan Record deliveries propelled the group to the number one spot, Awards from 2014 to 2015 and collaborated with and they won a total of four Japan Record Awards world-renowned guitarist SLASH and world-renowned between 2008-2010 and again in 2013 [7-8]. EXILE DJ Afrojack in 2015[8][10-12]. TRIBE consists of the groups Sandaime J Soul Brothers, EXILE TRIBE's affiliated office is LDH Corporation. GENERATIONS, and EXILE, and has performed many LDH Corporation signed a management contract with live concerts in recent years. In addition, each group has Afrojack on July 22, 2016. On New Year's Day, 2017 also increased its live audience numbers even when LDH officially decided to set up offices in Asia, Europe, performing by themselves (Figs. 2-and3) [9]. and the United States besides Japan to establish a foothold for global expansion[13]. LDH Co., Ltd. belongs to EXILE TRIBE as does EXILE, which is a group of artists currently representing Japan, and the Sandaime J Soul Brothers have contracted with the music office representing EXILE TRIBE that
978-1-5386-2715-0/17/$31.00 ©2017 IEEE 3069 was established in recent years. Analysis of the current dI(t) 2 Japanese music scene is an important research subject, = cζ Aζ (t)+ DI(t)+ PI(t) (1) specifically, analysis of live events sponsored by EXILE dt ζ TRIBE that in recent years have included many dome and arena tours. EXILE TRIBE, which is very popular I(t) is an amount expressing attention or interest for a among both female and male audiences, is an interesting certain thing. The left side of the equation represents phenomenon to research (Table 1). change of interest over time. The first term on the right-hand side indicates the influence of television and Table.1. EXILE TRIBE live in the past 3 years net news, the second term represents the effect of conversation (direct communication), and the third term indicates the influence (indirect communication) of rumors. The coefficients c, D, and P are called parameters.
Ⅳ. METHOD OF CALCULATION In this research, we analyze people's interests concerning EXILE TRIBE live. For this purpose, the process until the completion of one live tour was divided II. COMPOSITION OF EXILE TRIBE into three periods. First, the tour schedule is published. EXILE TRIBE consists of various groups; EXILE, the Second, announcement involves ticket booking Sandaime J Soul Brothers, GENERATIONS, EXILE announcements. The third is the period of the live tour. THE SECOND, THEATER EXILE, THE RAMPAGE, We considered both Twitter and blogs for our and SAMURIZE, contracted to LDH Corporation as calculations (Figs.5-7). shown in Fig. 4. In this research, we will analyze live events, excluding THEATER EXILE, THE RAMPAGE, and SUMURISE. In addition to the remaining groups, we also include five groups of E-girls contracted to the same office participating in EXILE TRIBE live as EXILE TRIBE in this study.
Figure 5. Graph of the tour schedule is published
Figure 6. Graph of ticket announcement whether ticket winning or losing election.
Figure 4. Organization chart of EXILE TRIBE Quotation：http://ticket.st/exile-ryu/3899jt3ed
Figure 7. The period of the live tour Ⅲ. MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF HIT PHENOMENON Tour deadlines were the day an event was held and the The mathematical model of the hit phenomenon used in place where the venue was announced on the official this research is [2,3]. website. We divided these by date and calculated one week before and one week after the event as the analysis period.
3070 The ticket booking announcement was the day the fan club announced the event. We used that date and calculated one week before and after as the analysis period. During the live tour period, the live show was analyzed on the day of the show and on the next day.
Ⅴ. RESULTS In this study, a total of 10 EXILE TRIBE live performances were evaluated using both Twitter and Figure 11. The tour schedule is announced. Calculation results of arena Blogs, and various figures show the calculation results. performance.
A. The tour schedule is announced Fig. 10 shows E-girls LIVE TOUR 2015 COLORFUL WORLD's Twitter results. Fig. 11 shows E-girls LIVE TOUR 2016 E.G. SMILE's blog results. The left side is the value of direct communication and the right is the value of indirect communication. The blue bar shows the value of the parameter before the tour date is announced, and the red bar shows the value of the parameter after the tour date is announced.
As an example of a dome tour, the calculation results for Twitter of HiGH & LOW THE LIVE 2016 tour (Fig. Figure 8. The tour schedule is announced. Calculation results of dome 8) and the calculation results of a blog for the Sandaime performance. J Soul Brothers BLUE PLANET 2015 tour (Fig. 9) were shown previously. As an example of an arena tour, the calculation results for Twitter of COLORFUL WORLD 2015 (Fig. 10) and the calculation result of the blog of E-girls E.G. SMILE 2016 (Fig. 11) were shown previously. Note the values of D (direct communication) and P (indirect communication) in these figures. The blue bars represent a week before the tour schedule is announced, and the red bars represent a week after the tour date is announced. In the dome tour both D and P Figure 9. The tour schedule is announced. Calculation results of dome are generally going down, but for the arena tour we see performance. that D is falling but P is going up. Even before the schedule of the dome tour is released, the published
Fig. 8 illustrates HiGH & LOW THE LIVE tour’s, schedule is not a surprise for fans, because it is showing Twitter results. Fig. 9 is the Sandaime J Soul predictable how many times the live event can occur in a Brothers LIVE TOUR 2015 BLUE PLANET's blog. The limited number of available domes, and the fans only left side of each figure indicates the value of direct care about the date and time. However, in the case of communication before and after an announcement. The arena tours, there are many opportunities to tour other right side is the value of indirect communication. The than big cities, and local fans also have a better chance of blue bar shows the value of the parameter before the tour enjoying the live event close at hand. Thus, the date is announced, and the red bar shows the value of the announcement of arena events is a surprise for fans. In parameter after the tour date is announced. addition to the dome tour, the arena tour also goes around many cities instead of performing in a few venues. For this reason, rumors spread after the schedule is announced regarding possible unannounced venues, mainly spread by local fans, and it is expected that indirect communication will be higher.
Figure 10. The tour schedule is announced. Calculation results of arena performance.
3071 B. Ticket Lottery Announcement Fig. 14 is E-girls LIVE TOUR 2015 COLORFUL WORLD's Twitter. Fig. 15 is E-girls LIVE TOUR 2016 E.G.SMILE's blog, with the same symbols and ber colors as defined previously for ticket announcements. The timeflame calculated is the same as for the tour date announcement. Before and after the ticket lottery results are announced, the value of D decreases in both Twitter and blogs, and the value of P tends to rise. Considering this result, the behavior of the fans indicates a possibility that there are many online exchanges between fans and friends on who bought live tickets and Figure 12. Ticket lottery announcement. Calculation result of dome performance. many people pray to buy a ticket before the ticket sale closes. For an example of a Twitter post, see Fig. 16.
Figure 16. Tweet example Translation: Tomorrow is the day to find out if the Sandaime J Soul Brothers ticket has been won….Throb
Also after the ticket sale ends, the posts of those who have a winning ticket or people who want tickets spread
Figure 13. Ticket lottery announcement. Calculation result of dome by retweeting (see Fig. 17 as an example). Therefore, we performance. think that these reasons indicate why the value of indirect communication remains high. Fig. 12 shows HiGH & LOW THE LIVE tour’s Twitter results regarding ticket lottery/sales announcements. Fig. 13 shows the results for the Sandaime J Soul Brothers
LIVE TOUR 2015 BLUE PLANET's blog. The left side Figure 17. Tweet example shows the value of direct communication, and the right Translation: If you have more tickets at Saitama Super Arena or Seibu shows the value of indirect communication. The blue bar Dome, I would like you to hand it over. Please. # the Sandaime # shows the value of the parameter before a ticket lottery spreading hope announcement, the red bar shows the value of the parameter after the announcement. The tweets as shown in Fig. 17 are concentrated during the period from the ticket's announcement to the end of the ticket payment deadline. The blue line posts the number of writes on Twitter or blogs, the red line shows the calculation result. The green bar graph shows the number of TV ads, the purple bar shows the number of web news articles. Light blue bars indicate a live event date.
Figure 14. Ticket lottery announcement. Calculation result of arena performance. C. Period of the live tour
Figure 15. Ticket lottery announcement. Calculation result of arena performance.
3072 addition, expectations were also created which triggered a change of behavior of fans on the SNS before and after a concert and before and after the release date of the ticket sales as triggers reflected by the changes in the values of P and D. By applying this theory, we clarify the propagation tendency of rumors before and after a large scale event, and as a variable to consider the best timing for advertisements and news to improve ticket sales.
Figure 18. Computed results of EXILE AMAZING REFERENCES WORLD 2015 during the live tour period. [1] Koji Fukuda, Tadashi Osone” Analysis of reputation on the Internet based on quantitative and qualitative change of word-of-mouth communication”,2016. Fig. 19 indicates communication values, with Twitter [2]Akira Ishii, Yoshihiko Yoshida,” Mathematical model of hit on the left and blogs on the right. During the period phenomenon,”Proc. Tottori University Faculty of Engineering Research when the blue bar chart is not live, the red bar shows the Report No. 36 pp 71-80 Tottori University,2005 parameter value of the live opening date. [3] A.Ishii, H.Arakaki, N.Matsuda, S.Umemura, T.Urushidani, N.Yamagata and N.Yoshida;,”The 'hit' phenomenon: a mathematical model of human dynamics interactions as s stochastic process,” New This is the result of the EXILE 2015 year live tour Journal of Physics 14 063018 ,pp22,2012. period. For both Twitter and blogs, the value of D of [4] Ishii A,Ota S,Koguchi H and Uchiyama K,the proceedings of the Yahuoku dome is high. This is due to the fact that it was 2013 International Conference on Biometrics and Kansei Engineering(ICBAKE2013)143-147DOI10.1109/978-0-7695-5019-0/1 the last live event of EXILE's original members - USA, 3,2013 MATSU, and MAKIDAI - who had announced their [5] Yasuko Kawabata, Etsuo Genda and Akira Ishii,” Analysis of retirement after this live tour. Furthermore, it is thought reputation prediction of music concert applying mathematical model of that this live tour was influenced by the fact that EXILE hit phenomenon” [6] “160 billion yen In the music industry a real performer HIRO, who retired from EXILE in 2013, "reversalphenomenon"occurring”
Figure 19. Values of parameter D
Ⅵ. SUMMARY Through this research, the following three points are noted. First, when the tour schedule is announced for an arena tour, the value of indirect communication increases. Second, after announcement of closed ticket sales, indirect communication increases. Third, as in EXILE 's Yahuoku dome performance, where some members performing their last live tour, parameters do not change significantly unless there is a surprise. By using EXILE TRIBE as an example, communications on social media were divided into multiple periods and analyzed with a mathematical model of a hit phenomenon, and indicated that indirect communication tends to be strong, particularly if tour information contained surprises. In this manner, calculating the change of direct communication and indirect communication by dividing it into a plurality of sections makes it possible to analyze a male group of popular artists (number of members is 10 to 30 members) such as EXILE TRIBE is very effective. In
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