Searching for Atmospheric Signals in States of Low Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration
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Searching for atmospheric signals in states of low Antarctic sea ice concentration Meteorological Institute, Stockholm University MO9001 - Degree Project Aiden J¨onsson Supervisors Frida Bender Meteorological Institute, Stockholm University Abhay Devasthale Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute 5 October 2018 Abstract The Antarctic sea ice region is relatively stable in extent from year to year and sees little long-term variability, the primary driver for its seasonal advance and retreat being the seasonal changes in advection of heat through the atmosphere. However, observations show a slight positive trend in its extent over recent decades. Recent work has built on the hypothesis that anomalous poleward moisture fluxes could be seen in concert with anomalous decreases in sea ice variability by providing evidence of this correlation in the Arctic sea ice region. In order to test this hypothesis and to investigate the atmospheric circulation patterns during states of low sea ice concentration in the Antarctic, records of de-seasonalized sea ice concentration anomalies are made for five regions of the Antarctic polar region, and composite distributions of variables of atmospheric circulation for the lowest 10th percentile of months with low mean sea ice concentration are compiled. Merid- ional moisture fluxes from these composites are tested against the entire population of meridional moisture fluxes using the Student's t-test with a confidence level of 95%, and the differences from the overall mean fields for atmospheric conditions during these cases are calculated. Of the five regions, the Ross Sea, Weddell Sea, and Pacific Ocean sections exhibit significant local moisture flux anomalies in the direction of the pole during months with low sea ice concentration, supporting the hypothesis that moisture transport into the polar region is important for the variability of sea ice in the Antarctic. The Bellingshausen - Amundsen Seas and Indian Ocean sectors show weak local signals of poleward moisture fluxes, indicating that there are other varying factors affecting the sea ice more heavily in these regions. Mean geopotential height anomalies during months with anomalously low sea ice concentration indicate that the Weddell Sea and Pacific Ocean regions are coupled with the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode, while low sea ice concentration in the Indian Ocean as well as the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas regions show concur- rence with the negative phase. With general circulation models predicting a persistence of the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode in a warming climate, it is important to understand how the Antarctic sea ice region responds to the phase of this oscillation. Acknowledgements To MISU, the most welcoming institution I've ever been a part of, and all of the bright and passionate souls there who work so hard there. To the authors of the OSI-450 database for producing a truly remarkable tool for studying sea ice, and for giving patient, positive and constructive answers to questions about their work. A great thanks to my supervisors: to Frida, for being a compassionate, supportive supervisor and motivating me at every step to carry out quality work, and to Abhay, for sharing his inspiring knowledge and enthusiasm for the subject of this project, and for his skillful analyses along the way. To my dad, for encouraging and aiding me along the road to reach the end of the masters degree. To Danielle, for being by my side throughout every step of the process, reminding me to eat while writing, and working together with me to make our home a safe and relaxing place to carry out my studies. 1 Contents 1 Introduction 4 2 Methodology 10 2.1 Sea Ice Concentration . 10 2.2 Historical Reanalysis . 13 2.3 Calculations and Data Processing . 14 3 Results 16 4 Discussion and Conclusions 29 4.1 Discussion . 29 4.2 Limitations . 31 4.3 Societal Implications . 33 4.4 Conclusions . 35 4.5 Suggestions for Further Study . 36 2 Glossary of abbreviations BS: Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas region DMSP: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program ECMWF: European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ENSO: El Ni~no-SouthernOscillation ERA: ECMWF Reanalysis EUMETSAT: European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satel- lites GCM: General Circulation Model IO: Indian Ocean region OSI SAF: Satellite Application Facility on Ocean and Sea Ice PO: Pacific Ocean region RS: Ross Sea region SAM: Southern Annular Mode SH: Southern Hemisphere SIC: Sea Ice Concentration SO: Southern Oceans VINMF: Vertically Integrated Northward Moisture Flux WS: Weddell Sea region WVI: Water Vapor Intrusion 3 Section 1 Introduction The polar regions are expected to experience the greatest change in climate relative to lower and middle latitudes with a globally warming climate. This effect { which has been dubbed polar amplification { is predicted early on by models in the IPCC 1990 report (Chapman and Walsh, 1993) and that is continuing to gain observational evidence. The differences in climate responses between lower and higher latitudes is expected to be most evident in the Arctic polar region, which has seen the greatest warming of any region on the planet; in direct contrast, a quickly warming climate is not seen in the Antarctic (Collins et al., 2013). The dominant factors controlling the difference between the two hemispheres' polar regions are widely believed to be the mixing of heat into deep waters in the Southern Oceans (Marshall et al., 2014), the ice sheet's persistence on the land mass (Pachauri et al., 2014), and the surface height and orography on the continent (Salzmann, 2017), although all possible causes have not been investigated or quantified. Figure 1.1: Seasonal average Antarctic sea ice concentration fields for the years 1982-2010 (DJF: December-January-February, MAM: March-April-May, JJA: June-July-August, SON: September-October-November). 4 The sources of heat in the Antarctic polar region also differ greatly from the Arc- tic. The Arctic region's heat budget is highly dynamic and shifts heavily throughout the seasons: during the fall and winter, the Arctic Ocean adds heat to the atmosphere as radiative solar heating subsides, and when radiative solar flux begins to increase during spring and summer, the atmosphere's heat energy continues to increase while the ocean begins to gain heat from the atmosphere (due to the melting of sea ice and increased radiative heating from the subsequently lower albedo) (Serreze et al., 2007). Advection of heat into the Arctic polar region by atmospheric circulation is quite low. In the Antarctic, downward vertical motion from the stratosphere transports most of the heat, while hori- zontal eddies transport about 3 to 5 times less heat into the region (Rubin and Weyant, 1963); the primary contributors to observed temperature changes between seasons are increased warm air advection and sea ice melt, and the stratosphere and troposphere are radiatively cooled at all times of the year. The Antarctic sea ice region is annually consis- tent in extent and variations are relatively small: most of the Southern Ocean is ice-free during southern hemisphere (SH) summer months and reaches a minimum in February. For the maximum sea ice extent, there is little variability from year to year despite a very slightly positive positive trend in recent decades: + 1.0 ± 0.4% during the years 1979 to 2006 (Cavalieri and Parkinson, 2008)(Macalady and Thomas, 2017). This is in contrast to the Arctic, which is experiencing a strong negative trend in sea ice extent at - 3.4 ± 0.2% per decade (Comiso and Nishio, 2008)(Stroeve et al., 2007). Despite modest trends in the Antarctic, the region's stability and lower variability of sea ice from year to year may allow for the possibility of a clearer picture of meteorological variables' effects on sea ice with less difficulty in removing any signals of long-term trends. A narrow band near the coast of the Antarctic continent that comprises only 1.5% of the total Antarctic sea ice region's surface area at the maximum is responsible for nearly all of the formation of sea ice in the southern hemisphere (Massom and Stammerjohn, 2010). As well as the production of sea ice, much of the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water occurs within this area, making processes near the coast crucial and far-reaching in effects on the circulation of the world's oceans. In the coastal zone, sea ice formation is controlled mostly by the interface between the ocean and the continental ice sheet and ice bergs, the seasonal change in temperature, as well as katabatic winds over the continent. These katabatic winds affect sea ice production by transporting newly formed, unpacked 5 ice away from the coast; strong, sustaining katabatic winds more perpendicular to the coast are associated with high sea ice production (Massom et al., 2001). The process of seasonal melt in the entire sea ice is affected by the atmospheric processes during the melt season. Primarily, heat advection during the onset of spring sets the stage for the melting of winter sea ice, and speeding the process of melting is the breaking of the sea ice pack by storms. The frequency of cyclones in the region as well as wind speeds during winter months are negatively correlated with maximum sea ice thickness (Heil, 2006). Aside from the mechanical breaking of sea ice by high wind speeds, storm-induced ocean swells cause further fragmentation and may cause breakage even beyond the storm path (Langhorne et al., 2001). Although there is not much year-to-year variability in the seasonal cycle of Antarctic sea ice, there are slight changes in the cycle currently being observed: the date of the sea ice maximum (defined as the reaching of a maximum thickness of the ice sheet) is delayed by 0.43 days per year (Heil, 2006).