CHARTING SURREY’S POST-COVID RESCUE, RECOVERY AND GROWTH 1 University of Surrey | Charting Surrey’s Post-Covid Rescue, Recovery and Growth SURREY 2 University of Surrey | Charting Surrey’s Post-Covid Rescue, Recovery and Growth TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents Research Team ......................................................04 Aviation Cluster ...................................................132 Key Reports ..............................................................134 Team Leader Overview ........................................ 09 Definition and Parameters ................................... 135 Surrey Voices ......................................................... 15 Qualitative Analysis .............................................. 138 UK Economic Baseline ..........................................30 Case Studies ........................................................... 139 Surrey-Specific Economic Overview ...................40 Quantitative Analysis .............................................143 Sector Survey Responses ................................... 149 Cluster Analysis .....................................................53 Healthcare and Epidemiology Cluster ..............152 Business, Employment and Infrastructure Cluster ....................................54 Key Reports ............................................................. 154 Key Reports ...............................................................56 Definition and Parameters ....................................157 Definition and Parameters .....................................60 Qualitative Analysis .............................................. 159 Qualitative Analysis ................................................62 Case Studies ........................................................... 162 Case Studies .............................................................70 Quantitative Analysis ............................................ 188 Quantitative Analysis ..............................................86 Sector Survey Responses ....................................197 Sector Survey Responses .....................................95 Strategic Asks and Policy Recommendations .. 200 Knowledge Cluster ................................................98 Economic Policy Recommendations ................ 202 Key Reports ............................................................. 100 Final Recommendations ....................................... 211 Definition and Parameters .................................... 101 Contributors and References .............................212 Qualitative Analysis .............................................. 103 Case Studies ........................................................... 105 Quantitative Analysis ............................................ 123 Sector Survey Responses ................................... 129 3 University of Surrey | Charting Surrey’s Post-Covid Rescue, Recovery and Growth RESEARCH TEAM Research Team TEAM BIOS Professor Amelia Hadfield Amelia joined the University of Surrey in January 2019 as Head of the Department of Politics, Chair in European and International Affairs and co-Director of the Centre for Britain and Europe (awarded prestigious Centre of Excellence funding in August 2020). Previously, Amelia worked as Director of the Centre for European Studies (CEFEUS), a Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence at Canterbury Christ Church Uni (2013-2018), where she worked in conjunction with Kent County Council and Kent-based stakeholders to produce a series of county-wide Brexit impact assessments on business and rural economy, health and social care, and the UK border. Prior to CCCU, she held positions in Brussels at the Vrije Universiteit Brussels and the Institute for European Studies. Amelia is regularly called upon as a guest speaker, external supervisor, research partner, consultant and by the media on areas of EU foreign affairs, and of late, EU-UK relations. 4 University of Surrey | Charting Surrey’s Post-Covid Rescue, Recovery and Growth RESEARCH TEAM Dr Alia Middleton Dr Alia Middleton is a Lecturer in Politics and co-Director of the Centre for Britain and Europe. After competing her PhD at the University of Edinburgh, she worked as a Research Associate at Newcastle University before joining the University of Surrey in 2015. She is a specialist in British politics, with particular expertise in political leadership, voter behaviour, the impact of leaders during election campaigns, national and local campaigning and party electoral strategy. She has published widely on local, regional and national elections and is regularly called upon by national and international media. Economist: Marta Alvaro-Taus Marta Alvaro-Taus is currently studying a Phd in Economics at the University of Surrey. She holds a MA in European Economics from the College of Europe (Belgium), and an Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Valencia (Spain). Her previous experience includes working as Macroeconomic Analyst at Fidelity Investments, and as Research Analyst at the European Central Bank. Surrey Voices: Ellen Hughes Ellen Hughes is a Research Fellow at the Surrey Business School, University of Surrey. Her research questions how people and firms decide where to locate, and how places evolve over time. SWOT Analysis: Dr Eric Golson A specialist in international trade, Eric is currently the Deputy Head of Department and Senior Teaching Fellow in the School of Economics at the University of Surrey, responsible for various economics courses. He has provided consulting advice on Brexit-trade matters to major British and multinational corporations. Between 2011 and 2016, Eric was a Research Fellow at Oxford University. 5 University of Surrey | Charting Surrey’s Post-Covid Rescue, Recovery and Growth RESEARCH TEAM Aviation Cluster: Christian Turner Christian Turner is a former policy advisor at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), where he worked on EU Exit, including on Rules of Origin and no-deal preparation. He has previously worked as a research analyst at the Centre for European Studies (CEFEUS) at Canterbury Christ Church University and as a policy advisor at the UK Chamber of Shipping. Christian holds a first-class honours degree in International Relations with American Studies from Canterbury Christ Church, in addition to a distinction level LLM in International Law from the University of Kent. Knowledge Cluster: Victoria Denton Victoria graduated from the University of Surrey in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in International Politics. She then completed a master’s degree in Security Studies at UCL in 2020. Victoria has been a political analyst and research associate with the CBE/DoP at the University of Surrey since July 2019. Healthcare Cluster: Megan Isherwood Megan has recently graduated from the University of Surrey with a First-Class Honours degree in BSc Politics and Sociology. She will soon begin her postgraduate studies at London School of Economics and Political Science, studying MSc Gender, Peace and Security. Business Cluster: James Penny James is studying BSc International Relations and is currently in his third year at the University of Surrey. He has a keen interest in foreign affairs, international development and sustainability. 6 University of Surrey | Charting Surrey’s Post-Covid Rescue, Recovery and Growth RESEARCH TEAM Surrey is by any measure a special place. Our people, communities, economy, natural environment, public sector and globally significant location, have created a successful and ambitious County. We cannot however take this for granted. Growing pressures mount all the time and have been accelerated in many cases by Covid-19 itself, and the wider implications of tackling it. Our historic success looks increasingly unsustainable. We face an extraordinarily critical, complex, and uncertain time and need to make decisions and act in ways that will address these challenges both now and for the longer term. I am therefore delighted to provide these opening comments for the work that follows, having been commissioned by Surrey County Council, in conjunction with Rt. Hon. Philip Hammond, as Chairman of the Future Economy Surrey Commission. Surrey University’s initial research into four key sectors of our economy that have the potential to make the biggest contribution to our economic recovery going forward is an interesting, stimulating and inordinately helpful piece of work. The real value of it though lies in how we collectively use and apply it to our work, decisions and services. I would strongly encourage anyone reading it to engage with us, contribute to and act on it to the benefit of Surrey’s economy and residents. Tim Oliver, Leader, Surrey County Council 7 University of Surrey | Charting Surrey’s Post-Covid Rescue, Recovery and Growth RESEARCH TEAM We are facing a period of unparalleled challenge in the UK economy as we navigate the Covid crisis and face the potential shock of a move to non- preferential trading with our largest trading partner in a few months’ time. Across the UK, we will need to re-double efforts to improve competitiveness if we are to return rapidly to growth. The Surrey economy has distinctive characteristics and traditionally has been resilient - but there is no room for complacency. On some key measures, Surrey is falling behind in relative terms. And the widening gap between the east and the west of the county is a growing cause for concern and a challenge to our future prosperity. So