Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. November5, JuniorAnalyst Sector Head: Vienna Snap - NYSE: SNA | Price Target: SNA NYSE: 2019 : ChristopherSuchecki On Buscher Inc. $198 | Upside: 17.3%| 10Shares
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UND Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. Agenda Valuation Risks & Mitigations Risks & Investment& Catalysts Thesis MarketSNA Position Overview Industry Overview Company SNA 2 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. -20% 20% 40% 60% 80% Stock Performance Executive Summary Catalysts 0% 2014 End MarketDiversity & Security Promising Segment Expansion FavorableAutomotive Trends 2015 SNA 2016 S&P 2017 XLI 2018 10x 15x 20x 25x CreditRating Beta Debt/EquityRatio P/E Ratio MarketCap 52 PriceShare Key Metrics Relative Valuation 5x - - Long SNA Wk High/LowWk 12.83x PE 19.60x SNA $198 PT: EV/EBITDA 8.60x 13.48x IndustryAvg. A 0.96 0.72x 12.83x $9.23bn $135.29$174.46/ $ Upside: 168.76 17.3% - / A2 / A A2/ / EV/EBIT 9.45x 17.56x Shares 2.22 EV/Sales x 10 2.36x 3 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. Segments Company Overview • • • • 4. 3. 2. 1. Company Financial Services FinancialServices Systems Repair Information & Commercial Industrial & Snap Current share at $158buyback Current program through franchisees Sales partially auto segment Main focuson serving manufacturer industrial & solutions Global tool • • • • • - Franchiseeselltools, trucks B2B model Tool & franchise financing, 8% of revenue Tool & franchisefinancing, 8%of revenue Diagnostics software,& 26%of revenue of 26%Specialized instruments, revenue Hand tools, market,B2B 40%of On ToolsOn 3,385 3,405 3,425 3,445 3,465 • Franchise Model $3,200m $3,600m $4,000m $4,400m RevenueMargin &EBIT and pitchproducts vanMobile franchises travel to customer locations • 2012 financing division; ease of credit promotes purchases creditpromotes financing division;of ease corporate able financethrough to purchases Customers 2015 2016 2013 Revenue Outstanding Franchisees 2017 2014 EBIT Margin 2018 2015 2019E 2016 2020E 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 2017 SNA Mgmt.SNA Source: 4 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. • • Segments Customer Overview Industry • • • • Competitive Environment Vehicle techniciansrepair main customer represent distributors, and e Distribution through franchiseetrucks, directsales, household household users,& mining heavyconstruction segments include: defense, aerospace,Secondary segment innovation on quality,Compete based price, and No unique across competitor segments all fragmented market nowith leader clear SNA markethas ~8% global share, highly • Innovation in software division &diagnostics - commerce Source: Markets & Markets Research & Markets Markets Source: Global PowerGlobal Tool Sales • • • Macroeconomic FactorsMacroeconomic Concentrated in U.S.,in Concentrated Asiain Growing U.S. vehicle on spending YoYup ~3% repairs conditions,discretionary not Essential car required repairs all economic in sales Tool sales car inversely& repairs related to car 5.3% CAGR, Historically Stable Historically CAGR, 5.3% – $31.8bn Current Valuation Current $31.8bn stable performance recession in stable performance 5 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. • Opportunities Exploratory SNA Market Position • • • • • Brand PositioningBrand Easy expansion into the consumer consumer the Easy market into expansion tool Growingvocationalwith relationship schools businesses management fleet truck with Strategic integration and and quality products,(core Focus on innovation(software & diagnostics) B2B the Primarily marketserves competitors Positioned ashigherquality brand than • • • Boost product familiarityBoost earlyin career distribution channels to Similarcoreproducts, different point price and Especially consumer tool Especiallymanufacturersconsumer ie . hand tools). RCI Initiative Internal CompetitiveInternal Advantages • 4. 3. 2. 1. earnings $7.2m earnings Increased2018 manufacturing efficiency initiative systematically reduces costs boosts& RapidContinuous Improvement (RCI) operating operating RapidContinuous Improvement Initiative most robust among competitors scalability franchiseHigh through model Global Presence: 130+ countries future for capacity acquisitions diversificationHigh through acquisitions & margin benefit 2% Gross 2%Gross unfavorable translation currency currency Offset - 6 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. • Expansion Promising Segment InvestmentThesis • Catalysts showing growth promising Diagnostics &commercialsegments marketshare andgrowth Robust boosts acquisition history End Market Diversity & Cash Flow Security Flow & Cash DiversityMarketEnd • Capital structure supports further M&A further supports structure Capital Promising Segment Expansion Segment Promising FavorableAutomotive Trends End MarketEnd Diversity &Security Favorable Automotive Trends • • • • North America North manyindustries, highly are necessary Tools have applicability high across tools diagnostic “smart” software& of Incorporation Demandfor specialized tools growing vehicles of Increasing average and complexity age 70% Geographic Distribution Europe 19% Other 11% 7 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. • Favorable Trends Auto Industry • slow greatly • 12Yrs 10Yrs Increasing Average Vehicle Age 6 Yrs 8 Yrs repairs overrepairs new vehiclepurchases As increases,vehicleage customers choose economic conditions Mechanic’s inall tools constant for need new During recession, economic new vehiclesales • 1980 Boosts Boosts mechanicmarket, need for tools 1985 – boosts need for repairs tools & for boostsneed repairs 1990 1995 2000 2005 Translation for Snap 2010 2015 2018 SNA Mgmt.SNA Source: 0.9bn 1.0bn 1.1bn 1.2bn 1.3bn 1.4bn Capabilities with Internet Cars • • • through through M&A, relevant5+ recent acquisitions SNA actively diagnostics portfolio growing driving needs in & tool design change & Electric autonomous vehicles,among others, innovation Growing car demands complexity tool Global Installed Car Bases • 2012 their fastest growing segment growing theirfastest forSNA’sneed Increasing info. &diagnostic products, - On 2013 2014 2015 2016 Percent with Network Solutions 2017 2018 2019 2020 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% McKinsey Source: 8 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. • • &Industrial Segment Commercial • • Promising SegmentExpansion • Diagnostics Segment Consistent customer sales Consistent customer base w/ repeatable &industrial customers government Custom solutions aerospace, for tool per management’s guidance from2015,21% sales YoY5%growth run systems software information Market leader diagnostics and in repair existing relationship with U.S. withexisting relationship municipalities spendingprojects, from Benefits government • • • management’s guidance 2015,17%growth from sales4.5%YoY rateper run Key differentiatorfrom hand complexvehicles, in emerging marketsgrowth more Growing needdiagnostics for with increasingly - tool competitors - rate rate TMB Cognitran Car BTC Global Norbar Fastorq • • Strategic History Acquisition Interest Coverage:18.9x Capital Structure promotes continued M&A Structure Capital M&A involvement of Constant history Debt/Equity: 0.73x Debt/Equity: - • O , 2019 Notable Recent Acquisitions - segment growth, significantsegment similarities& synergiesgrowth, & diagnostic on emerging information focus Primary Liner , 2017 , 2018 , 2019 , 2017, , 2016 portfolio, segment useindustrial torque tool Expanded current & diagnostics segment& diagnostics use Repair software systems,information commercialsegment &industrial use Inspection software systems, Cash on Cash on Hand: $141m Current Ratio: 2.33x Current 9 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. • • Outlook Industry Broad Security inEndMarkets Flows &Cash • • • • • Diverse Markets End Mechanic salaries YoY,up ~4% strong outlook ownershiprates single High rate rate environment credit customers for interest in global Ease of Global power ~5%YoY demand tool growing Diverse product portfolio, no majority segment subsectors distinct across Sales presence 130+countries and 14 toeasilyadaptable highlyfit diverse needs Product across needed numerable sectors, • • Clear indicator of customer marketstrength Clearindicatorof Largest subsectors: automotive, subsectors: Largest A&D, oil & gas - digit YoYdigit Chinese car in growth Strong Strong Dividend History $1.5 $2.5 $3.5 $4.5 $5.5 Franchise Model • • • $.5 reduction reduction 1939since Consecutive dividends quarterly without SNA’sdivision financing for franchisees financing through Ease of franchised vansmobile vehicletechnicians through repair Service • • 2013 Stable revenue through ongoing & contracts fees revenueStable ongoing through without significant capital expenditures segments allowsemerging in Model quickgrowth 16% Avg. Growth 2014 2015 2016 2017 $3.54 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 10 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. NTMEV/EBIT Sensitivity Analysis Valuation DCF DCF Multiples EV/EBITDA DCF DCF Growth EV/EBIT NTMPE DDM Growth Rate NTM… PE $125
$
194.82
2.5% 2.2% 1.9% 1.6% 1.3% $175
6.9%
262.76 248.82 236.57 225.71 216.03 PT:
WACC $198
7.4%
234.74 223.73 213.93 205.15 197.25 $225
7.9%
211.94 203.07 195.09 187.88 181.33 $275
8.4%
193.03 185.77 179.17 173.17 167.68
8.9%
177.10 171.06 165.54 160.48 155.83 $325
WACC TerminalRate Growth EV/EBITDAMultiple Investment Rationale • • • • SNA CEO: “Shares are inappropriately priced” inappropriately SNAare CEO: “Shares growth, higher for for innovative higher growth, segment diagnostic forecasts Management eventual ~4.5%total $157 weightedavg. of price ~31,000 shares purchased byrecently insiders at DDM metrics dividendStrong commitment adds value to compared to peers Undervalued • No comparable company spans all segments spans company comparable No Repurchased in 2019shares ~1.1m
11.41x
7.9% 1.9% 11 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. Risks &Mitigations fluctuations could create translation could create high fluctuations Exposure Exposure (~20%)forex toEuropean rgetd&cmeiientr fFragmented & competitive nature of Global economic slowdownGlobal economic reduces industry limits market share industry growth buyer buyer sentiment costs through through M&A creates competitiveadvantage impact, created forex gain in some in periods. created impact, forex gain ueal emnsades ffinancing numerable segments and of ease Expansion fast into Strategic hedging historically reduced reduced historically hedging Strategic repair software segment organically & software organically segment repair eest ftools, presence across Necessity of Also offsetbyRCI initiative. promote continued sales - growing diagnostics & growing 12 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. • • Summary FavorableTrends Auto Industry eadidpneto of Demand independent tools &repairs drivecomplexity for need and Increasing vehicleage economic sentiment sentiment economic LongSNA Price Target: • • • $198 Promising Segment ExpansionSegment Promising transactions transactions history, runway for future strategic M&A Strong segment SNA market this leader in & software solutions Growing for need diagnostic Catalysts Upside: 17.3% • • • End Market Diversity & Cash & Cash DiversityMarketEnd Strong dividendStrong history expenses minimizesexpansion, Franchise model allowsquick agnostic Tool demand is end • franchise SNA leading tool Flow Security Flow 10 Shares - market 13 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. Questions? YouThank 14 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. Appendix A: Projections Appendix A:
INCOME STATEMENT Revenue Snap-OnTools Group
Commercial & Industrial& Commercial
RepairSystems Information& Group
FinancialServices Revenue
Total RevenueTotal
COGS
GrossProfit OperatingExpenses
FinancialServices Expenses
Operating IncomeOperating InterestExpense Otherincome (expense) Earningsequity& earningstaxes before IncomeTaxExpense
Earningsequity before earnings EquityEarnings, net tax of NetEarnings NoncontrollingInterest Net Earnings Net Inc. attribn. Snap-On,
DilutedShares Outstanding EPS
% YoY Growth %YoY
% YoY Growth %YoY
% YoY Growth %YoY
%Non-Financial Revenue
% Growth %Growth Quarterly%of Total
%of Non-Financial Revenue
%of Non-Financial Revenue
%of Financial Services Revenue
Tax Rate Tax
%Growth
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2015FY
(1,704)
(1,041)
50.8%
31.1%
29.2%
31.1%
3,593
1,569
1,890
(221)
(70)
(52) (16)
(12)
896
889
240
779
490
491
479
711
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2016FY
(1,720)
(1,048)
(3.6%)
50.1%
30.6%
29.4%
30.5%
14.1%
1,634
3,712
1,992
4.2%
5.1%
8.2%
3.3%
(244)
(83)
(52)
(13)
863
934
281
802
557
560
547
861
(8)
3
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2017FY
(1,861)
(1,161)
14.3%
15.2%
50.5%
31.5%
30.6%
30.5%
1,625 (.5%)
1,076
4,001
2,140
8.5%
7.8%
2.1%
(251)
(96)
(52)
(15)
986
313
883
823
572
573
558
(8)
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2018FY
(1,871)
(1,144)
50.0%
30.6%
30.2%
23.6%
21.8%
4,070
2,200
1,614 (.7%) 1,052
1,075 (.0%)
56.11
6.6%
8.8%
1.7%
12.12
(100)
(214)
(50)
(16)
330
956
696
697
680
910
4
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2019EFY
(1,877)
(1,159)
50.5%
30.9%
28.0%
23.6%
4,090
1,614
1,044 (.7%) 1,088
2,213
56.11
1.2%
9.2%
0.5%
12.19
(215)
0.5%
.0%
(96)
(52)
(16)
344
958
699
700
684
914
8
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2020EFY
(1,953)
(1,199)
50.5%
31.0%
31.0%
23.6%
4,228
2,275
1,661
1,083
1,123
56.11 12.28
2.9%
3.7%
3.1%
9.3%
3.4%
(112)
(217)
0.8%
(52)
(16)
361
965
704
706
689
921
8
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2021EFY
(2,045)
(1,231)
51.0%
30.7%
31.0%
23.6%
4,384
2,339
1,714
1,130
1,166
56.11 12.66
3.2%
4.3%
3.8%
9.3%
3.7%
(116)
(223)
3.1%
(52)
(16)
375
993
949
725
727
710
8
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2022EFY
(2,146)
(1,271)
51.5%
30.5%
31.0%
23.6%
4,557
1,772
1,181
1,215
56.11 13.02
3.4%
4.5%
4.2%
9.3%
3.9%
2,411
1,019
(121)
(230)
2.9%
(52)
(16)
389
975
746
747
731
8
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2023EFY
(2,256)
(1,323)
52.0%
30.5%
31.0%
23.6%
4,744
2,488
1,834
1,236
1,268
1,039
56.11 13.30
3.5%
4.7%
4.4%
9.3%
4.1%
(126)
(234)
2.1%
(52)
(16)
405
996
761
762
746
8
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2024EFY
(2,374)
(1,379)
52.5%
30.5%
31.0%
23.6%
4,945
1,900
1,296
1,326
2,571
56.11 13.59
3.6%
4.8%
4.6%
9.3%
4.2%
1,061
1,017
(131)
(240)
2.2%
(52)
(16)
422
777
779
762
8
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2025EFY
(2,498)
(1,438)
53.0%
30.5%
31.0%
23.6%
2,656
1,969
1,358
1,387
5,154
1,082
1,038
56.11 13.88
3.6%
4.8%
4.6%
9.3%
4.2%
(136)
(245)
2.1%
(52)
(16)
440
794
795
779
8
1 15 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc.
INCOME STATEMENT Revenue Snap-OnTools Group
Commercial & Industrial& Commercial
RepairSystems Information& Group
FinancialServices Revenue
Total RevenueTotal
COGS
GrossProfit OperatingExpenses
FinancialServices Expenses
Operating IncomeOperating InterestExpense Otherincome (expense) Earningsequity& earningstaxes before IncomeTaxExpense
Earningsequity before earnings EquityEarnings, net tax of NetEarnings NoncontrollingInterest Net Earnings Net Inc. attribn. Snap-On,
DilutedShares Outstanding EPS Appendix A: Projections Appendix A:
% YoY Growth %YoY
% YoY Growth %YoY
% YoY Growth %YoY
%Non-Financial Revenue
% Growth %Growth Quarterly%of Total
%of Non-Financial Revenue
%of Non-Financial Revenue
%of Financial Services Revenue
Tax Rate Tax
%Growth
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2015FY
(1,704)
(1,041)
50.8%
31.1%
29.2%
31.1%
3,593
1,569
1,890
(221)
(70)
(52) (16)
(12)
896
889
240
779
490
491
479
711
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2016FY
(1,720)
(1,048)
(3.6%)
50.1%
30.6%
29.4%
30.5%
14.1%
1,634
3,712
1,992
4.2%
5.1%
8.2%
3.3%
(244)
(83)
(52)
(13)
863
934
281
802
557
560
547
861
(8)
3
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2017FY
(1,861)
(1,161)
14.3%
15.2%
50.5%
31.5%
30.6%
30.5%
1,625 (.5%)
1,076
4,001
2,140
8.5%
7.8%
2.1%
(251)
(96)
(52)
(15)
986
313
883
823
572
573
558
(8)
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2018FY
(1,871)
(1,144)
50.0%
30.6%
30.2%
23.6%
21.8%
4,070
2,200
1,614 (.7%) 1,052
1,075 (.0%)
56.11
6.6%
8.8%
1.7%
12.12
(100)
(214)
(50)
(16)
330
956
696
697
680
910
4
1
$ $
Q1 2019
(3.6%)
(3.7%)
(1.1%)
48.8%
30.8%
27.5%
24.6%
23.8%
1,007
56.11
1.4%
9.3%
(450)
(284)
8.9%
3.17
(24)
(13)
(57)
410
250
262
557
250
239
182
182
178
(4)
86
2
1
$ $
Q2 2019
(1.5%)
(1.5%)
50.2%
29.8%
27.9%
25.3%
23.1%
1,035
56.11
(.1%)
2.5%
8.8%
(478)
(284)
3.22
(24)
(12)
(56)
.9%
406
263
283
558
240
185
185
251
181
(5)
84
2
$ $
Q3 2019
(1.2%)
50.3%
31.1%
27.5%
24.1%
22.9%
56.11
2.8%
9.3%
(454)
(280)
1.0%
2.94
.5%
.6%
(23)
(12)
(50)
385
257
260
986
532
229
220
170
170
165
(5)
84
3
$ $
Q4 2019E
51.0%
32.0%
29.0%
(8.1%)
26.0%
24.2%
1,061
56.11
1.3%
1.6%
3.3%
9.2%
2.5%
(496)
(311)
2.87
(26)
(15)
(52)
413
274
284
566
230
164
164
216
161
(3)
90
2
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2019EFY
(1,877)
(1,159)
50.5%
30.9%
28.0%
23.6%
4,090
1,614
1,044 (.7%) 1,088
2,213
56.11
1.2%
9.2%
0.5%
12.19
(215)
0.5%
.0%
(96)
(52)
(16)
344
958
699
700
684
914
8
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2020EFY
(1,953)
(1,199)
50.5%
31.0%
31.0%
23.6%
4,228
2,275
1,661
1,083
1,123
56.11 12.28
2.9%
3.7%
3.1%
9.3%
3.4%
(112)
(217)
0.8%
(52)
(16)
361
965
704
706
689
921
8
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2021EFY
(2,045)
(1,231)
51.0%
30.7%
31.0%
23.6%
4,384
2,339
1,714
1,130
1,166
56.11 12.66
3.2%
4.3%
3.8%
9.3%
3.7%
(116)
(223)
3.1%
(52)
(16)
375
993
949
725
727
710
8
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2022EFY
(2,146)
(1,271)
51.5%
30.5%
31.0%
23.6%
4,557
1,772
1,181
1,215
56.11 13.02
3.4%
4.5%
4.2%
9.3%
3.9%
2,411
1,019
(121)
(230)
2.9%
(52)
(16)
389
975
746
747
731
8
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2023EFY
(2,256)
(1,323)
52.0%
30.5%
31.0%
23.6%
4,744
2,488
1,834
1,236
1,268
1,039
56.11 13.30
3.5%
4.7%
4.4%
9.3%
4.1%
(126)
(234)
2.1%
(52)
(16)
405
996
761
762
746
8
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2024EFY
(2,374)
(1,379)
52.5%
30.5%
31.0%
23.6%
4,945
1,900
1,296
1,326
2,571
56.11 13.59
3.6%
4.8%
4.6%
9.3%
4.2%
1,061
1,017
(131)
(240)
2.2%
(52)
(16)
422
777
779
762
8
1
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2025EFY
(2,498)
(1,438)
53.0%
30.5%
31.0%
23.6% 16
2,656
1,969
1,358
1,387
5,154
1,082
1,038
56.11 13.88
3.6%
4.8%
4.6%
9.3%
4.2%
(136)
(245)
2.1%
(52)
(16)
440
794
795
779
8
1 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc.
CASH FLOWCASH ADJUSTMENTS CapEx
Depreciation
Amortization
Total D&A Total Appendix A: Projections Appendix A:
%of Non-Financial Sales
%of CapEx
%of Intangibles
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2015FY
71.9%
2.4%
2.5%
(80)
58
25
83
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2016FY
82.6%
2.2%
2.2%
(74)
24
86
61
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2017FY
80.0%
2.2%
2.3%
(82)
66
28
93
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2018FY
75.7%
2.4%
2.2%
(91)
69
25
94
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2019EFY
77.6%
(106) 2.6%
108
82
25
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2020EFY
81.3%
2.7%
(114)
117
93
24
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2021EFY
85.0%
(123) 2.8%
104
128
23
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2022EFY
88.7%
(132) 2.9%
140
117
22
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2023EFY
92.5%
(142) 3.0%
132
153
21
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2024EFY
96.0%
(148) 3.0%
142
163
20
$ $
$ $
$ $
FY 2025EFY
97.5%
(152) 3.0%
148
168
19 17 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc.
BALANCE SHEET Assets: Current Current Assets: Cash & Equivalents Trade Receivables Finance Receivables Finance Contract Receivables Inventories Prepaid Expenses Prepaid Total Total Current Assets: PP&E, PP&E, net Deferred income taxes income Deferred LT Receivables Finance LT Contract Receivables Goodwill Other intangibles, net Other intangibles, Other Other assets Total Assets: Appendix B:BalanceSheet
$
FY FY 2015
1,789
4,331
563 447
498 106
414
773 267 790 195
93
82
60
44
$
FY FY 2016
1,884
4,723
599 473
531 117
425
935 287 896 185
78
88
73
40
$
FY FY 2017
2,119
1,039
5,249
676 505
639 111
484
323 924 254
92
97
52
54
$
FY FY 2018
2,217
1,074
5,373
141 693 519
674
495
345 902 233
98
93
65
42
Liabilities: Current Current Liabilities: Notes Payable, Current LT Payable, Debt Notes A/P Accrued benefits Accrued compensation Franchisee deposits Franchisee Other Other accrued liabilities Total Total Current Liabilities LT Debt Deferred income taxes income Deferred Retiree health care health benefits Retiree Pension Liabilities Pension Other Other LT Liabilities Total Liabilities: Equity: Common Common Stock APIC Retained Earnings Retained Accumulated OCI (OCL) Accumulated Treasury Stock Noncontrolling Interests Noncontrolling Total Equity: Total Equity: & Liabilities
$
$ $
FY FY 2015
1,900
2,987
2,431 4,331
(364) (574)
148
296 670 862
228
296
18
52 91 64
14 38
89
67
18
$
$ $
FY FY 2016
2,088
3,385
2,635 4,723
(499) (654)
301 171
308 990 709
247
317
53 90 67
13 37
93
67
18
$
$ $
FY FY 2017
1,193
2,277
3,772
2,972 5,249
(329) (900)
433 178
388
754
159 107
343
56 72 67
28 36
67
18
$
$ $
FY FY 2018
(1,123)
2,255
4,258
3,119 5,373
(462)
186 201
374 952 946
171 112
359
52 72 68
41 32
67
20 18 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. Appendix C: NetAppendix C: Working Capital ΔNWC NWC LiabilitiesTotal AccruedLiabilities AccountsPayable CurrentLiabilities: CurrentTotal Assets PrepaidExpenses Inventory AccountsReceivable CurrentAssets: CALCULATION NWC %of OperatingFin. Services& Expenses %of OperatingFin. Services& Expenses DIO DSO DPO $ $ $ FY 2015FY 39.5% 1,109 1,696 1,092 9.6% 107 111 587 439 498 148 106 32 $ $ $ $ FY 2016FY 39.8% 10.3% 1,185 1,806 1,159 113 114 621 451 531 171 117 36
76 $ $ $ $ FY 2017FY 41.0%
2,027 1,334 1,278 8.8% 125 117 694 639 149 515 178 111 35 $ $ $ $ FY 2018FY 40.0%
2,076 1,378 1,309 7.5% 131 117 698 497 674 201 39
44 93 $ $ $ $ FY 2019EFY 40.1% 1,401 2,110 8.0% 1,316 135 117 709 503 206 694 100 40
24 $ $ $ $ FY 2020EFY 40.1% 1,458 2,214 1,360 8.0% 140 117 755 525 230 749 105 43
57 $ $ $ $ FY 2021EFY 40.1%
2,330 1,538 8.0% 1,410 145 117 792 540 252 108 812 45
80 $ $ $ $ FY 2022EFY 40.1%
2,430 1,607 1,466 8.0% 145 117 822 558 265 853 111 45
69 $ $ $ $ FY 2023EFY 40.1%
2,538 1,679 1,526 8.0% 145 117 859 278 896 581 116 45
72 $ $ $ $ FY 2024EFY 40.1%
2,655 1,757 8.0% 1,591 145 117 898 605 293 943 121 45
77 $ $ $ $ FY 2025EFY 40.1%
2,777 1,838 1,658 8.0% 145 117 939 308 993 631 126 45
81 19 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc.
Discounted Cash Analysis Flow Dollars in millions Dollars in FCFCalculation Revenue
EBIT EBITMargin NOPAT
Plus:D&A Less:CapEx Less:ΔNWC FCFF %Growth DiscountFactor PV of Cash PVFlows of
SNAP-ON Tools, Inc. Inc. SNAP-ON Tools,
WACC TerminalRate Growth EV/EBITDAMultiple
%Growth
Tax Rate Tax Appendix D:DCF
$ $
$ $
FY 2018 FY
23.5%
23.6%
4,070
1.7%
(91) (44)
956
690
690
731
94
$ $
$ $
FY 2019E FY
23.4%
23.6%
4,090
0.5%
2.9%
(106)
(24)
958
732
108
684
710
0.5
$ $
$ $
FY 2020EFY
(3.8%)
22.8%
23.6%
4,228
3.4%
(114)
(57)
965
738
117
684
610
1.5
$ $
$ $
FY 2021E FY
22.6%
23.6%
4,384
3.7%
(123)
0.%
(80)
993
759
128
684
566
2.5
$ $
$ $
FY 2022EFY
22.4%
23.6%
4,557
3.9%
(132)
1019
5.%
(69)
779
140
551
718
3.5
$ $
$ $
FY 2023EFY
21.9%
23.6%
4,744
4.1%
2.2%
(142)
1039
(72)
794
153
733
522
4.5
$ $
$ $
FY 2024EFY
21.4%
23.6%
4,945
4.2%
(148)
1061
2.%
(77)
163
748
493
811
5.5
11.41x
$ $
$ $
FY 2025EFY
7.9% 1.9%
23.6%
5,154
4.2%
21.%
1.9%
(152)
1082
(81)
827
168
762
466
6.5
TerminalCF WACC TerminalRate Growth TerminalValue PV of Terminal PVof Value EnterpriseValue Less:Debt Plus:Cash Equity ValueEquity DilutedShares Outstanding PricePerShare
TerminalEBITDA EV/EBITDA Multiple EV/EBITDA
TerminalValue PV of Terminal PVof Value EnterpriseValue Less:Debt Plus:Cash Equity ValueEquity DilutedShares Outstanding PricePerShare
Gordon Gordon Growth Method
Multiples Method Multiples
$ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $
$ $
208.33
11.41x
14,257
12,607
11,690
1,058
1,250
8,716
141
13,016
194.82
11,849
10,931
7.86%
1,058
56
7,957
141
762
2%
56 20
Multiples Method Multiples Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. Appendix D:DCF
EV/EBITDA Growth Rate
$ $
$ $
194.82
208.33
12.4x 11.9x 11.4x 10.9x 10.4x
2.5% 2.2% 1.9% 1.6% 1.3%
6.9%
0.0%
262.76 248.82 236.57 225.71 216.03
349.80 338.66 327.53 316.39 305.25
WACC
WACC
7.4%
7.4%
234.74 223.73 213.93 205.15 197.25
228.29 221.27 214.25 207.23 200.21
7.9%
7.9%
211.94 203.07 195.09 187.88 181.33
222.05 215.23 208.42 201.61 194.80
8.4%
8.4%
193.03 185.77 179.17 173.17 167.68
216.00 209.40 202.79 196.18 189.57
8.9%
8.9%
177.10 171.06 165.54 160.48 155.83
210.16 203.75 197.33 190.92 184.50 21 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc.
Dividend Discount Model PastDividends AnnualDividend
FutureDividends AnnualDividend
TerminalValue DiscountFactor PresentValue IntrinsicValue: Appendix E: DividendAppendix E: DiscountModel
Growth Rate Growth
Growth Rate Growth
Growth Rate
FY 2019EFY
$ $
15.5%
4.09
3.93
0.5
203.97
8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0%
FY 2020EFY
FY 2012FY
15.8%
15.5%
1.44
4.72
4.19
9.6%
1.5
409.83 319.86 264.49 226.99 199.90
FY 2021EFY
FY 2013FY
13.9%
15.5%
Cost of Equity of Cost
1.64
5.45
4.47
2.5
9.9%
344.24 279.11 236.44 206.32 183.93
FY 2022EFY
FY 2014FY
18.3%
15.0%
1.94
6.27
4.74
3.5
8.3%
344.24 279.11 236.44 206.32 183.93
FY 2023EFY
FY 2015FY
17.5%
15.0%
2.28
7.21
5.03
4.5
10.5%
260.33 222.11 194.81 174.33 158.41
FY 2024EFY
FY 2016FY
15.8%
15.0%
2.64
8.30
5.34
5.5
10.8%
FY 2025EFY
231.87 201.39 178.93 161.70 148.05
FY 2017FY
15.9%
15.0%
3.06
9.54
5.67
6.5
$ $
FY 2026EFY
FY 2018FY
203.97
299.78
170.59
15.7%
15.0%
10.97
3.54
7.5
DiscountRate: CostEquity of PerpetualGrowthRate:
8.3% 4.5% 22 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. Appendix F: Appendix F: WACC WACC Debt Equity Outstanding Shares Stock Price After-Tax Cost of Debt Tax Rate Cost Debt of Pre-Tax Cost of Equity Beta Rate (10 Free Risk yr. note) Market Premium Risk Market Return CalculationWACC Beta Calculation 1Yr vs. S&P 0.81 2Yr vs. S&P $ $ 0.96
9,317,274,196 946,000,000
55,210,205 168.76 7.86% 23.6% 3.3% 4.4% 8.3% 1.8% 6.8% 8.6% 0.96 1Yr vs. XLI 0.75
Dilutive Dilutive Share Factor:
Stock Options Non-vested PSU's Non-vested Stock-Settled SAR's Stock-Settled Total Dilutive Effect: Basic Shares Outstanding Weighted Avg.Weighted Shares Outstanding
Outstanding Bonds:
Weighted Avg.Weighted Cost of Debt
Maturity Date
Instrument
2021 2027 2048 2Yr vs. XLI 0.91
$ $ $
Outstanding Amt.
Shares
2,440,000
187,000 278,000
250,000,000 300,000,000 400,000,000
WA WA Exercise Price $
$
Weight
26.3% 31.6% 42.1%
122
142
-
2,440,000
Issued
187,000 278,000
Repurchased
6.1% 3.3% 4.1%
YTM
1,769,130
4.4%
234,297
-
Net Net Dilution
55,210,205
56,111,778
670,870 187,000
901,573
43,703 23 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc.
Analyst Coverage Firm Baird Longbow Longbow Research Zacks Morningstar Tigress Financial Tigress Barrington Barrington Research CL King CL& King Associates Northcoast Northcoast Research Jefferies Oppenheimer & Co Oppenheimer Edward Jones ISS GovernanceISS BUY: HOLD: SELL:
Comparable Companies AnalysisCompanies Comparable
Snap-On Tools Inc. Snap-On Stanley Black &Stanley Decker, Inc. W.W. Grainger Inc. MSC Direct Co. Industrial Fortive Inc. Fortive Genuine Parts Company Genuine Ingersoll-Rand PLC Ingersoll-Rand Techtronic Industries Co. Ltd.Techtronic Industries Illinois Tool Works Inc. Illinois Makita Corp.
SNAP-ON Tools, Inc. SNAP-ONTools, Appendix G: Comparable Companies Analysis Appendix G:Comparable
Company
Position
Hold Hold Hold
Hold Hold
Sell Buy Buy Buy
Buy Buy Buy
6 5 1
MKTAY
TTNDY
Ticker
GWW
MSM
SWK
SNA
GPC
FTV
ITW
IR
Multiple MIN Q1 MED MEAN Q3 MAX
Diversified Hardware Diversified
Consumer HardwareConsumer
Consumer HardwareConsumer
Industrial Supply Industrial
Industrial Supply Industrial
Industrial Supply Industrial
Machinery
Machinery
Hardware Hardware
Industry
12.83x 17.49x 17.85x 13.74x 24.38x 17.27x 19.41x 21.89x 21.33x 16.33x
13.74x 16.57x 17.38x 17.02x 17.76x 19.41x
PE
PE
NTM PE
12.93x 17.08x 17.57x 14.00x 19.55x 17.18x 18.40x 20.29x 20.62x 17.72x
NTM PE
14.00x 17.11x 17.38x 16.99x 17.68x 18.40x
EV/EBITDA
14.00x 12.50x
18.91x 11.06x 13.19x 14.89x 14.38x
8.60x
9.44x
9.25x
EV/EBITDA
11.78x 11.57x 13.02x 14.00x
9.25x 9.85x
NTM EV/EBITDA
NTM EV/EBITDA
12.08x 11.52x
16.68x 12.67x 12.83x 14.09x 14.56x
9.15x
9.71x
9.64x
10.16x 11.80x 11.41x 12.52x 12.83x
9.64x
EV/EBIT
21.11x 15.68x 10.90x 25.94x 16.22x 16.71x 21.76x 16.53x 10.72x
9.45x
EV/EBIT
10.72x 12.10x 15.95x 15.22x 16.59x 21.11x
NTM EV/EBIT
10.74x 14.41x 13.36x 11.20x 22.21x 15.39x 14.98x 19.29x 16.54x 11.31x
NTM EV/EBIT
11.20x 11.82x 13.89x 13.44x 14.84x 15.39x
EV/Sales
2.22x 2.01x 1.70x 1.35x 4.00x
2.11x 1.84x 3.99x 1.63x
.98x
NTM EV/Sales
EV/Sales
1.42x 1.67x 1.63x 1.93x 2.11x
.98x
2.60x 1.95x 1.66x 1.35x 3.85x
2.03x 1.77x 4.02x 1.62x
.95x
NTM EV/Sales
$ $
$ $ $ $ $
$
$
$
Market Cap
1.42x 1.64x 1.59x 1.88x 2.03x
.95x
21.31bn 15.76bn
21.95bn 13.81bn 27.56bn 60.42bn 48.49bn
8.46bn
3.81bn
8.17bn 24 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. Appendix H: ProductExamples Appendix H: 25 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. Appendix I: Product DivisionsAppendix I:Product 26 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. Appendix J: Recent Acquisitions • • • • • • • • • Car Ryeson BTCGlobal Ltd Norbar TorqueSpecialists Control Fastorq TMB PowerHawk Tech Cognitran - O GeoMarketing - Liner , 2018 , TorqueLtd Holdings Corp , 2019 , , 2016 , ., 2016., – hydraulic and torquepower tool manufacturer ., 2017., – modular Software as a Service (SaaS) producerfor (SaaS) automotive Softwaremodular applications Service a as ., 2019 ., – – collision repair equipment, diagnostics & information systems equipment,diagnosticscollision &information repair , 2019 , torqueand error - vehicle inspection software and management company – rescue tool manufacturer servicing military, tool rescuemanufacturerservicing firegovernment, segments & rescue (TCS), 2017(TCS), – dealer location optimization location optimization software dealer ., 2017., – - proofing systems misc.torque solutions & tools – hydraulic and torque power tool manufacturer 27 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. Appendix K: Appendix K: Competitors • • • • • • • • • Strong Strong diagnostics & software division diverseGeographically Most franchiserobust system Focus on automotiveindustry manufacturer Publicly Less diversifiedLess product offerings Lower brand name recognition Significantly robust lessfranchise system Private& aviationauto tools manufacturer • Important in Important this space - traded professional professional tradedtool Snap Cornwell ToolsCornwell - On Tools • • • • • • • • Lessexpansive reach geographic Significantly robust lessfranchise system automotiveindustry not More entirelygeneralized,focusedon Decker. U.S. More regionally Lessfocus on software & diagnostics conglomerate Fortive of Subsidiary Professional hand tool manufacturer - ae usdayo Stanley Black& of subsidiary based Matco Mac Tools - focusedin the U.S. Tools 28 Binghamton Investment Fund | Snap-On Inc. • • Revenue Miss Earnings Appendix L: Q32019 • Results Growth driven sales increase,by 1.4% organic $901.8m delivered, $909.6 expected Full year Full year sales estimate: ~$4.1bn acquisition • • • Core hand tool segment experienced flat tool Coregrowth hand segment experiencedflat +2.8% Diagnostics performing: highest typicallyQ3 lowest quarter Financial Services Revenue FinancialServices Net Earnings of $164.6m, of Net Earnings iue P f$2.96, Dilutedof EPS e ae f$901.8m, Net of Sales - related related sales Organic Sales Organic +140bps +390bps +40bps +256bps +79bps EPS Beat Segment Expansion • • • • • • Full year Full year estimate: $12.64 outstanding shares, increases EPS share reduces buyback Rigorous program Margin drivenexpansion by RCIinitiative $2.96 delivered, $2.94 expected growth & Information Diagnostics growth Commercial & Industrial • • • • Cost reduction and manufacturing reductionand Cost efficiency typically lowestQ3 quarter technology newdiagnostic Growth drivenof bysales increased markets European in specialty& sales Increased : 2.9% organic : 2.9% organic : 3.2% organic : 3.2% organic 29