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Techtronic Industries Strong Growth Momentum to Continue

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Techtronic Industries Strong Growth Momentum to Continue 16 August 2018 Hong Kong EQUITIES Techtronic Industries 669 HK Outperform Strong growth momentum to continue Price (at 08:50, 16 Aug 2018 GMT) HK$40.50 Valuation HK$ 50.00-70.00 Key points - PER Reiterate Outperform and lift TP from HK$60.0 to HK$62.0. 12-month target HK$ 62.00 Sustainable strong growth from continuous investment in OPEX. Upside/Downside % +53.1 12-month TSR % +55.5 Mgmt believes potential tariff change will not impact its gross margin. Volatility Index Low GICS sector Event Consumer Durables & Apparel Market cap HK$m 74,196 After attending TTI’s analyst meeting, we have higher confidence on the Market cap US$m 9,452 sustainability of its double-digit earnings growth in the long run. Free float % 75 Impact 30-day avg turnover US$m 19.4 Number shares on issue m 1,832 Strong growth to sustain. Mgmt emphasized the 1H18 strong growth is purely organic, not at expense of 2H18 growth, and its single digit % revenue Investment fundamentals guidance appears conservative. The impressive Milwaukee revenue growth of Year end 31 Dec 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 30% was thanks mainly to innovative products, such as third generation of Revenue m 6,063.6 6,948.7 7,712.9 8,565.3 brushless motors, and powerful products that are replacing corded products EBIT m 519.2 613.2 713.1 821.1 EBIT growth % 15.3 18.1 16.3 15.2 and M12 compact tools; as well as strong growth in Europe (+43% YoY), Reported profit m 470.4 558.8 659.5 769.4 Canada and Australia, in addition to continuous strength in US. We believe the Adjusted profit m 482.5 558.8 659.5 769.4 accelerated revenue growth is a reward of its past OPEX investment. EPS rep ¢ 25.7 30.5 36.0 42.0 EPS rep growth % 14.9 18.7 18.1 16.7 Continuous OPEX investment for future growth. TTI’s OPEX increased EPS adj ¢ 26.3 30.5 36.0 42.0 30bps YoY in 1H18, on a 30bps decline in non-strategic SG&A expense and EPS adj growth % 17.7 15.7 18.1 16.7 PER rep x 20.1 16.9 14.3 12.3 60bps growth for strategic investment, such as R&D (+21bps), geographic PER adj x 19.6 16.9 14.3 12.3 expansion and end-user conversion. We expect the strong growth in high-end Total DPS ¢ 8.7 10.9 13.2 15.8 new products to continue to lift TTI’s gross margin, leaving more room for Total div yield % 1.7 2.1 2.5 3.1 OPEX investment, in turn leading to stronger demand growth in the future, ROA % 9.7 10.8 11.9 12.5 ROE % 18.8 19.0 19.6 19.9 making a positives circle. EV/EBITDA x 13.0 11.4 10.3 9.2 Net debt/equity % 1.0 -6.4 -14.0 -20.9 Well prepared for any tariff changes. While actual sales % of the products in P/BV x 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.3 the potential higher tariff lists is yet to be known, TTI has built a new factory in Vietnam, plus six plants in the US and two plants in Europe to ensure 669 HK rel HSI performance, & rec history production flexibility. Mgmt assures it won’t let tariffs impact its gross margins. We also believe TTI’s faster new product launches allow it to pass through higher costs from material, FX and tariff volatilities. Earnings and target price revision We lift our EPS forecasts by 2% and 3% for 2018-19E to reflect stronger than expected sales growth. We lift our TP from HK$60.0 to HK$62.0 based on an unchanged 22x 2019E PER. Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Price catalyst Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, August 2018 (all figures in USD unless noted, TP in HKD) 12-month price target: HK$62.00 based on a PER methodology. Catalyst: 2H18 result to be announced in March 2019 Action and recommendation Analysts Macquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities Branch Reiterate Outperform. TTI is trading at 18.7x/15.9x 2018/19E PER, 0.9x Corinne Jian, CFA +886 2 2734 7522 PEG, compared with the 17.8x/16.1x PER and 1.4x PEG for global peers, TTI [email protected] is our top pick in the Asia Home Improvement sector. We hold a long term Shannen Lin +886 2 2734 7518 positive view on TTI’s brand value, innovation capability and valuable battery [email protected] user base (30% US household penetration), and see any share price pull back due to trading war concerns as good buying opportunity. Please refer to page 11 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Macquarie Research Techtronic Industries Analysis Fig 1 1H18 results summary 1H18 Actual YoY HoH MACQ Diff Net Sales 3,431 19% 8% 3,182 8% Real. Gross Profit 1,274 21% 9% 1,185 7% EBIT 281 21% -2% 275 2% Pre-Tax Income 275 23% -2% 271 2% Net income 255 25% -4% 248 3% EPS (cent) 13.9 24% -4% 13.5 3% Margin Gross margin 37.1% +0.5ppts +0.3ppts 37.3% -0.1ppts EBIT margin 8.2% +0.1ppts -0.8ppts 8.6% -0.5ppts Net margin 7.4% +0.3ppts -0.9ppts 7.8% -0.4ppts Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, August 2018 Fig 2 1H18 revenue and EBIT breakdown by products Unit: US$m 1H18 YoY HoH MACQ Diff Net Sales 3,431 19% 8% 3,182 8% - Power Equipment 2,962 20% 11% 2,787 6% - Floor care 469 13% -8% 394 19% EBIT 281 21% -2% 275 2% - Power equipment 280 21% 0% 271 4% - Floor care 1 58% -92% 4 -87% EBIT margin 8.2% +0.1ppts -0.8ppts 8.6% -0.5ppts - Power equipment 9.5% 0.0ppts -1.0ppts 9.7% -0.3ppts - Floor care 0.1% 0.0ppts -1.3ppts 1.1% -1.0ppts Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, August 2018 Fig 3 TTI is gaining share in power tool market. Sales growth comparison, 1H18 Fig 4 Global Milwaukee brand sales YoY growth 35% 35% 30% 30% 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% Milwaukee brand TTI's total power Makita SWK's T&S 0% equipment organic 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H18 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, August 2018 Source: Company, Macquarie Research, August 2018 Fig 5 1H18 revenue breakdown by region Unit: US$m 1H18 YoY % of Sales Net Sales 3,431 19% 100% - US 2,599 18% 76% - Europe 555 24% 16% - ROW 277 18% 8% Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, August 2018 16 August 2018 2 Macquarie Research Techtronic Industries Fig 6 TTI sales YoY growth by region Fig 7 Milwaukee brand sales YoY growth by region 25% 45% 40% 20% 35% 30% 15% 25% 20% 10% 15% 5% 10% 5% 0% 0% US EU ROW US EU ROW Source: Company data, August 2018 Source: Company, August 2018 Fig 8 P&L forecasts, 2010-2020E Unit: US$m 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Net Sales 3,396 3,667 3,852 4,300 4,753 5,038 5,480 6,064 6,949 7,713 8,565 Real. Gross Profit 1,093 1,194 1,289 1,472 1,673 1,798 1,985 2,226 2,586 2,907 3,269 EBIT 169 219 259 301 350 400 450 519 613 713 821 Pre-Tax Income 96 161 222 276 325 387 440 505 603 711 830 Net income 95 152 201 250 300 354 409 470 559 659 769 EPS (cent) 5.95 9.47 11.42 13.68 16.41 19.37 22.32 25.66 30.50 36.00 42.00 YoY 51% 60% 32% 25% 20% 18% 15% 15% 19% 18% 17% Recurring EPS (cent) 6.93 9.38 11.94 13.54 17.27 19.92 22.36 26.32 30.50 36.00 42.00 YoY 42% 36% 40% 18% 28% 15% 12% 18% 16% 18% 17% Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, August 2018 Fig 9 Earnings revisions, 2018-20E 2018E 2019E 2020E Unit: US$m Old New Diff Old New Diff Old New Diff Net Sales 6,605 6,949 5% 7,292 7,713 6% 8,079 8,565 6% Real. Gross Profit 2,465 2,586 5% 2,752 2,907 6% 3,081 3,269 6% GM% 37.3% 37.2% -0.1ppts 37.7% 37.7% 0.0ppts 38.1% 38.2% 0.0ppts EBIT 599 613 2% 690 713 3% 795 821 3% EBIT margin 9.1% 8.8% -0.2ppts 9.5% 9.2% -0.2ppts 9.8% 9.6% -0.3ppts Net income 550 559 2% 642 659 3% 744 769 3% EPS (cent) 30.00 30.50 2% 35.00 36.00 3% 40.60 42.00 3% Recurring EPS (cent) 30.00 30.50 2% 35.00 36.00 3% 40.60 42.00 3% Source: Macquarie Research, August 2018 Fig 10 Macquarie forecasts vs Bloomberg consensus, 2018-20E 2018E 2019E 2020E Unit: US$m BBG MACQ Diff BBG MACQ Diff BBG MACQ Diff Net Sales 6,750 6,949 3% 7,415 7,713 4% 8,303 8,565 3% Real.
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