MEDICINE RESEARCH INDIA & CHINA LAC WILDLIFE KANHA FThe vaccineRO race 9 NTLINETime for talks 64 Conservation breakthroughs 90 J ULY 17, 2020 I NDIA’S NATIONAL MAGAZINE HTTPS://FRONTLINE.THEHINDU.COM RS.125 A long way to peak With the ICMR’s sero-surveillance being out of pace with the rapid surge in COVID-19 infections in the country and with the government continuing to deny community transmission, India achieves the dubious distinction of being ranked fourth in the world V OLUME 37 NUMBER 14 JULY 04-17, 2020 ISSN 0970-1710 HTTPS://FRONTLINE.THEHINDU.COM C OVER STORY Madhya Pradesh: Sops and polls 52 Chinks in the armour Uttar Pradesh: As bravado, false pride and an apparent refusal to adopt a scientific Travesty of truth 54 Bihar and Jharkhand: approach mark the Union government’s strategy to fight COVID-19, Capitals a concern 56 58 the pandemic is steadily marching to its peak. 4 Haryana: Sharp increase Punjab against agri- marketing ordinances 60 An NGO coalition that did Bengaluru proud 62 I NDIA AND CHINA T ime for talks 64 J AMMU & KASHMIR M ilitancy and The Resistance Front 69 New media policy spells more trouble for journalists 72 LEGISLATION E lectricity (Amendment) Bill and power sector “reform” 75 CONTROVERSY C OVER STORY T amil Nadu: W hy the coal blocks auction Domino effect 36 is a bad idea 79 Police terror 38 Karnataka: WILDLIFE Out of the comfort zone 40 Gujarat: Crisis and cover-up 42 P ublic sector in the Rajasthan: T he vaccine race 9 post-COVID strategy 26 Uneasy comfort 44 BJP: Offence as defence 14 Targeting mosques West Bengal: Information void 17 in Delhi 30 What numbers hide 46 K anha and its conservation Interview: STATES Kerala: breakthroughs 90 Prof. R.B. Bhagat 21 D elhi: Broken system 32 Reckless opposition 48 FTA and the race to Maharashtra: Odisha: the bottom 24 On the mend 34 People-driven plan 50 BOOKS 82 On the Cover: A health worker collects a patient’s blood sample for the antibody-based rapid test at the Rajiv Gandhi Government General Hospital in Chennai Air Surcharge: COVER DESIGN: V. SRINIVASAN Colombo - Rs.20.00 and PHOTOGRAPHS: B. VELANKANNI RAJ Port Blair - Rs.15.00 For subscription queries and delivery related issues Contact: Pan-India Toll Free No: 1800 102 1878 or [email protected] Disclaimer: Readers are requested to verify & make appropriate enquiries Published by N. RAVI, Kasturi Buildings, 859 & 860, Anna Salai, Chennai-600 002 and Printed by T. Ravi at Kala to satisfy themselves about the veracity of an advertisement before Jyothi Process Private Limited, Survey No. 185, Kondapur, Ranga Reddy District-500 133, Telangana on behalf responding to any published in this magazine.THG PUBLISHING PVT LTD., the Publisher & Owner of this magazine, does not vouch for the of THG PUBLISHING PVT LTD., Chennai-600 002. authenticity of any advertisement or advertiser or for any of the EDITOR: R. VIJAYA SANKAR (Editor responsible for selection of news under the PRB Act). All rights reserved. advertiser’s products and/or services. In no event can the Owner, Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. Publisher, Printer, Editor, Director/s, Employees of this magazine/ company be held responsible/liable in any manner whatsoever for any e-mail: [email protected] claims and/or damages for advertisements in this magazine. Frontline is not responsible for the content of external Internet sites. J ULY 17, 2020 . F RONTLINE 3 publication of sero-survey results by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). Even the protocol to be followed in the sero- surveillance of the 60-odd districts (classified into four categories) that had been identified was published online only on June 20, just about when the last issue of Frontline was closing, which itself was about six weeks after the survey data had been gathered and the analysis was on. The protocol does have some information about the sero-survey, though not all that was pointed out in the last issue. Some of it is indeed revealing, which will be discussed here. As mentioned in the earlier article, this sero-survey was a serial cross-sectional survey conducted with a sample size of 24,000 distributed equally across four strata of districts categorised on the basis of the incidence of reported cases of COVID-19—zero cases, low incidence, medium incidence and high incidence. We had observed earlier that the post-survey press briefing on June 11 by the ICMR’s Director General, Balram Bhargava, had not defined the four categories, which, fortunately, have been defined in the published protocol. The sero-surveyed districts were to be categorised according to the reported COVID-19 cases per million population (zero, low: 0.1-4.7, medium: 4.8-10 and high: >10). As mentioned before, the classification at the time of the survey (mid May) was based on the number of reported COVER STORY cases as on April 25. Fifteen districts from each stratum were to be selected randomly for a total of 60 districts. In addition—this information had not been given in the briefing—the top 10 cities in the country reporting the highest number of cases were also to be included to be considered as hotspots, which roughly ties up with the 71 CHINKS IN THE A HEALTH WORKER spraying disinfectant in a COVID-19 test ward at the Rajiv Gandhi ARMOUR Government General Hospital in Chennai. B. VELANKANNI RAJ As bravado, false pride and an apparent refusal to adopt a scientific number of infections still hugging the exponential line, eventually the virus will not have enough people to infect approach mark the Union government’s strategy to fight COVID-19, the and the spread will decline and herd immunity will slowly set in—a natural epidemiological scenario. Even pandemic is steadily marching to its peak. B Y R. RAMACHANDRAN then the Modi-Shah regime is bound to claim that as its victory, when in reality it not only did not do the right thing in terms of non-pharmaceutical interventions FOURTEEN MONTHS AFTER HIS INFAMOUS experts to analyse, the second the duo is sure to win, (NPIs) such as lockdowns but also prevented medical remark about the Prime Minister’s “56-inch chest”, however long it might take. The fight on the COVID-19 and health experts from doing what they know best. Union Home Minister Amit Shah displayed the same front appears—both from news reports and from what is In the last issue of Frontline, evidence for the last clause sense of false pride and bravado when he said on June 28 evident on the ground—to be driven mainly by the Prime above was highlighted. The manner in which the that the country would win both the war—the Minister’s Office (PMO) and the national executive by government shared with the nation sero-surveillance data, confrontation with China on the Line of Actual Control keeping scientific expertise and advice at bay, and the which provide an indication of the disease prevalence in the VEDHAN . (LAC)—and the fight against COVID-19 under the spread of the disease, five months after the country saw country, revealed less than it hid. As quoted in the last issue, M leadership of Narendra Modi. its first case, will in all likelihood decline and slowly peter the Progressive Forum of Medicos and Scientists (PFMS) A SANITATION WORKER sprays bleaching powder in While the LAC battle is for strategists and defence out. That is because, with the current increase in the had roundly criticised the total lack of urgency in the Avadi, Chennai, during the lockdown, on June 30. F RONTLINE . J ULY 17, 2020 4 5 F RONTLINE . J ULY 17, 2020 NUSHREE FADNAVIS/REUTERS NUSHREE A H EALTH CARE w orkers at a school that has been turned after the peak transmission is established; repeated into a centre to conduct tests for COVID-19, in New Delhi. cross-sectional investigation in the same geographic area (but not necessarily the same individuals each time) to districts that Bhargava showed in the table projected at establish trends in an evolving pandemic; and the briefing. It had been reported in the media that in longitudinal cohort study with serial sampling of the these 10 hotspot cities, sero-survey had revealed that as same individuals. Establishing cohorts [the last much as 30 per cent of the populations could be infected. possibility] during a pandemic being resource intensive, Of course, the ICMR dismissed this as being speculative, and India being [as of April-end] in the early stages of but the correct data are yet to be published or shared. The the pandemic, the second option is the most appropriate protocol, however, suggests that the survey sampling of choice to guide public health response. hotspot zones was done on the assumption of a maximum “…The initial survey would serve as a baseline to seropositivity of 5 per cent. determine the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection With the total number of cases having crossed a in the community and in high-burden cities as well, while milestone mark of 500,000 on June 27 (which stands at the subsequent rounds would help to monitor the trends 566,840 as of June 30) and with nearly 19,000 confirmed of infection in the community. This information will also cases being added daily, India now has the dubious guide the strategy for making decisions related to distinction of being ranked fourth among the countries of lockdown options at a district level.