Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators
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UNEMPLOYMENT and LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION: a PANEL COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS for EUROPEAN COUNTRIES OZERKEK, Yasemin Abstract This
Applied Econometrics and International Development Vol. 13-1 (2013) UNEMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION: A PANEL COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS FOR EUROPEAN COUNTRIES OZERKEK, Yasemin* Abstract This paper investigates the long-run relationship between unemployment and labor force participation and analyzes the existence of added/discouraged worker effect, which has potential impact on economic growth and development. Using panel cointegration techniques for a panel of European countries (1983-2009), the empirical results show that this long-term relation exists for only females and there is discouraged worker effect for them. Thus, female unemployment is undercount. Keywords: labor-force participation rate, unemployment rate, discouraged worker effect, panel cointegration, economic development JEL Codes: J20, J60, O15, O52 1. Introduction The link between labor force participation and unemployment has long been a key concern in the literature. There is general agreement that unemployment tends to cause workers to leave the labor force (Schwietzer and Smith, 1974). A discouraged worker is one who stopped actively searching for jobs because he does not think he can find work. Discouraged workers are out of the labor force and hence are not taken into account in the calculation of unemployment rate. Since unemployment rate disguises discouraged workers, labor-force participation rate has a central role in giving clues about the employment market and the overall health of the economy.1 Murphy and Topel (1997) and Gustavsson and Österholm (2006) mention that discouraged workers, who have withdrawn from labor force for market-driven reasons, can considerably affect the informational value of the unemployment rate as a macroeconomic indicator. The relationship between unemployment and labor-force participation is an important concern in the fields of labor economics and development economics as well. -
What Is Econometrics?
Robert D. Coleman, PhD © 2006 [email protected] What Is Econometrics? Econometrics means the measure of things in economics such as economies, economic systems, markets, and so forth. Likewise, there is biometrics, sociometrics, anthropometrics, psychometrics and similar sciences devoted to the theory and practice of measure in a particular field of study. Here is how others describe econometrics. Gujarati (1988), Introduction, Section 1, What Is Econometrics?, page 1, says: Literally interpreted, econometrics means “economic measurement.” Although measurement is an important part of econometrics, the scope of econometrics is much broader, as can be seen from the following quotations. Econometrics, the result of a certain outlook on the role of economics, consists of the application of mathematical statistics to economic data to lend empirical support to the models constructed by mathematical economics and to obtain numerical results. ~~ Gerhard Tintner, Methodology of Mathematical Economics and Econometrics, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1968, page 74. Econometrics may be defined as the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on the concurrent development of theory and observation, related by appropriate methods of inference. ~~ P. A. Samuelson, T. C. Koopmans, and J. R. N. Stone, “Report of the Evaluative Committee for Econometrica,” Econometrica, vol. 22, no. 2, April 1954, pages 141-146. Econometrics may be defined as the social science in which the tools of economic theory, mathematics, and statistical inference are applied to the analysis of economic phenomena. ~~ Arthur S. Goldberger, Econometric Theory, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, 1964, page 1. 1 Robert D. Coleman, PhD © 2006 [email protected] Econometrics is concerned with the empirical determination of economic laws. -
An Econometric Examination of the Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada
Working Paper 96-7 / Document de travail 96-7 An Econometric Examination of the Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada by Denise Côté and Doug Hostland Bank of Canada Banque du Canada May 1996 AN ECONOMETRIC EXAMINATION OF THE TREND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN CANADA by Denise Côté and Doug Hostland Research Department E-mail: [email protected] Hostland.Douglas@fin.gc.ca This paper is intended to make the results of Bank research available in preliminary form to other economists to encourage discussion and suggestions for revision. The views expressed are those of the authors. No responsibility for them should be attributed to the Bank of Canada. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to thank Pierre Duguay, Irene Ip, Paul Jenkins, David Longworth, Tiff Macklem, Brian O’Reilly, Ron Parker, David Rose and Steve Poloz for many helpful comments and suggestions, and Sébastien Sherman for his assistance in preparing the graphs. We would also like to thank the participants of a joint Research Department/UQAM Macro-Labour Workshop for their comments and Helen Meubus for her editorial suggestions. ISSN 1192-5434 ISBN 0-662-24596-2 Printed in Canada on recycled paper iii ABSTRACT This paper attempts to identify the trend unemployment rate, an empirical concept, using cointegration theory. The authors examine whether there is a cointegrating relationship between the observed unemployment rate and various structural factors, focussing neither on the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) nor on the natural rate of unemployment, but rather on the trend unemployment rate, which they define in terms of cointegration. They show that, given the non stationary nature of the data, cointegration represents a necessary condition for analysing the NAIRU and the natural rate but not a sufficient condition for defining them. -
Nine Lives of Neoliberalism
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Plehwe, Dieter (Ed.); Slobodian, Quinn (Ed.); Mirowski, Philip (Ed.) Book — Published Version Nine Lives of Neoliberalism Provided in Cooperation with: WZB Berlin Social Science Center Suggested Citation: Plehwe, Dieter (Ed.); Slobodian, Quinn (Ed.); Mirowski, Philip (Ed.) (2020) : Nine Lives of Neoliberalism, ISBN 978-1-78873-255-0, Verso, London, New York, NY, https://www.versobooks.com/books/3075-nine-lives-of-neoliberalism This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/215796 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative -
Fundamental Theorems in Mathematics
SOME FUNDAMENTAL THEOREMS IN MATHEMATICS OLIVER KNILL Abstract. An expository hitchhikers guide to some theorems in mathematics. Criteria for the current list of 243 theorems are whether the result can be formulated elegantly, whether it is beautiful or useful and whether it could serve as a guide [6] without leading to panic. The order is not a ranking but ordered along a time-line when things were writ- ten down. Since [556] stated “a mathematical theorem only becomes beautiful if presented as a crown jewel within a context" we try sometimes to give some context. Of course, any such list of theorems is a matter of personal preferences, taste and limitations. The num- ber of theorems is arbitrary, the initial obvious goal was 42 but that number got eventually surpassed as it is hard to stop, once started. As a compensation, there are 42 “tweetable" theorems with included proofs. More comments on the choice of the theorems is included in an epilogue. For literature on general mathematics, see [193, 189, 29, 235, 254, 619, 412, 138], for history [217, 625, 376, 73, 46, 208, 379, 365, 690, 113, 618, 79, 259, 341], for popular, beautiful or elegant things [12, 529, 201, 182, 17, 672, 673, 44, 204, 190, 245, 446, 616, 303, 201, 2, 127, 146, 128, 502, 261, 172]. For comprehensive overviews in large parts of math- ematics, [74, 165, 166, 51, 593] or predictions on developments [47]. For reflections about mathematics in general [145, 455, 45, 306, 439, 99, 561]. Encyclopedic source examples are [188, 705, 670, 102, 192, 152, 221, 191, 111, 635]. -
Nearly Convex Sets: fine Properties and Domains Or Ranges of Subdifferentials of Convex Functions
Nearly convex sets: fine properties and domains or ranges of subdifferentials of convex functions Sarah M. Moffat,∗ Walaa M. Moursi,† and Xianfu Wang‡ Dedicated to R.T. Rockafellar on the occasion of his 80th birthday. July 28, 2015 Abstract Nearly convex sets play important roles in convex analysis, optimization and theory of monotone operators. We give a systematic study of nearly convex sets, and con- struct examples of subdifferentials of lower semicontinuous convex functions whose domain or ranges are nonconvex. 2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 52A41, 26A51, 47H05; Secondary 47H04, 52A30, 52A25. Keywords: Maximally monotone operator, nearly convex set, nearly equal, relative inte- rior, recession cone, subdifferential with nonconvex domain or range. 1 Introduction arXiv:1507.07145v1 [math.OC] 25 Jul 2015 In 1960s Minty and Rockafellar coined nearly convex sets [22, 25]. Being a generalization of convex sets, the notion of near convexity or almost convexity has been gaining popu- ∗Mathematics, Irving K. Barber School, University of British Columbia Okanagan, Kelowna, British Columbia V1V 1V7, Canada. E-mail: [email protected]. †Mathematics, Irving K. Barber School, University of British Columbia Okanagan, Kelowna, British Columbia V1V 1V7, Canada. E-mail: [email protected]. ‡Mathematics, Irving K. Barber School, University of British Columbia Okanagan, Kelowna, British Columbia V1V 1V7, Canada. E-mail: [email protected]. 1 larity in the optimization community, see [6, 11, 12, 13, 16]. This can be attributed to the applications of generalized convexity in economics problems, see for example, [19, 21]. One reason to study nearly convex sets is that for a proper lower semicontinuous convex function its subdifferential domain is always nearly convex [24, Theorem 23.4, Theorem 6.1], and the same is true for the domain of each maximally monotone operator [26, Theo- rem 12.41]. -
The Ends of Four Big Inflations
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Inflation: Causes and Effects Volume Author/Editor: Robert E. Hall Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-31323-9 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/hall82-1 Publication Date: 1982 Chapter Title: The Ends of Four Big Inflations Chapter Author: Thomas J. Sargent Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11452 Chapter pages in book: (p. 41 - 98) The Ends of Four Big Inflations Thomas J. Sargent 2.1 Introduction Since the middle 1960s, many Western economies have experienced persistent and growing rates of inflation. Some prominent economists and statesmen have become convinced that this inflation has a stubborn, self-sustaining momentum and that either it simply is not susceptible to cure by conventional measures of monetary and fiscal restraint or, in terms of the consequent widespread and sustained unemployment, the cost of eradicating inflation by monetary and fiscal measures would be prohibitively high. It is often claimed that there is an underlying rate of inflation which responds slowly, if at all, to restrictive monetary and fiscal measures.1 Evidently, this underlying rate of inflation is the rate of inflation that firms and workers have come to expect will prevail in the future. There is momentum in this process because firms and workers supposedly form their expectations by extrapolating past rates of inflation into the future. If this is true, the years from the middle 1960s to the early 1980s have left firms and workers with a legacy of high expected rates of inflation which promise to respond only slowly, if at all, to restrictive monetary and fiscal policy actions. -
Gravity Models and Panel Econometrics” 21 – 25 September 2020
World Trade Institute, University of Bern “Gravity Models and Panel Econometrics” 21 – 25 September 2020 Course Goals and content Course Content Grading The objective of this course is to serve as a A Trade Theory and the Gravity-Model Class participation (20 %); take-home exam practical guide for trade policy analysis with (80 %). Participants taking this course for 1. The Anderson and van Wincoop and the gravity model offering a balanced credit must attend all lectures and complete the Krugman Model approach between trade theory and econ- the take home exam. 2. The Eaton and Kortum Model metrics. We will discuss recent developments 3 Trade with Heterogeneous Firms in the economic foundation of gravity models 4. Zero Trade and the Helpman-Melitz- and describe best practices for quantifying the Rubinstein Model Organization general equilibrium impact of changes in trade 5. Measuring the Gains from Trade barriers and, especially, trade policies. The course is intended for PhD students. A 6. Universal Gravity limited number of people with relevant The course is organized in three modules. professional or academic interest may be also Module A concentrates on recent contri- B The Econometrics of Gravity Models of admitted. butions from trade theory that motivate Trade gravity models and form the basis of policy Lecture hours: 24 ECTS : 4 trade policy analysis. The second module will 1. Estimation of Linear High-dimensional take a closer look at the econometric issues of Fixed Effects models the estimation of gravity models and of 2. The Incidental Parameter Problem Timetable and Registration performing policy simulations. Starting point is 3. -
Econometric Theory
ECONOMETRIC THEORY MODULE – I Lecture - 1 Introduction to Econometrics Dr. Shalabh Department of Mathematics and Statistics Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur 2 Econometrics deals with the measurement of economic relationships. It is an integration of economic theories, mathematical economics and statistics with an objective to provide numerical values to the parameters of economic relationships. The relationships of economic theories are usually expressed in mathematical forms and combined with empirical economics. The econometrics methods are used to obtain the values of parameters which are essentially the coefficients of mathematical form of the economic relationships. The statistical methods which help in explaining the economic phenomenon are adapted as econometric methods. The econometric relationships depict the random behaviour of economic relationships which are generally not considered in economics and mathematical formulations. It may be pointed out that the econometric methods can be used in other areas like engineering sciences, biological sciences, medical sciences, geosciences, agricultural sciences etc. In simple words, whenever there is a need of finding the stochastic relationship in mathematical format, the econometric methods and tools help. The econometric tools are helpful in explaining the relationships among variables. 3 Econometric models A model is a simplified representation of a real world process. It should be representative in the sense that it should contain the salient features of the phenomena under study. In general, one of the objectives in modeling is to have a simple model to explain a complex phenomenon. Such an objective may sometimes lead to oversimplified model and sometimes the assumptions made are unrealistic. In practice, generally all the variables which the experimenter thinks are relevant to explain the phenomenon are included in the model. -
Chapter 5. Structural Vector Autoregression
Chapter 5. Structural Vector Autoregression Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 The structural moving average model 1 2.1 The impulse response function . 2 2.2 Variance decomposition . 3 3 The structural VAR representation 4 3.1 Connection between VAR and VMA . 5 3.2 The invertibility requirement . 5 4 Identi…cation of the structural VAR 8 4.1 The order condition . 9 4.2 What shouldn’tbe done . 9 4.3 A common normalization that provides n(n - 1)/2 restrictions . 11 4.4 Identi…cation through short run restrictions . 11 4.5 Identi…cation through long run restrictions . 12 5 Estimation and inference 13 5.1 Estimating exactly identi…ed models . 13 5.2 Estimating overly identi…ed models . 13 5.3 Inference . 14 6 Structural VAR versus fully speci…ed economic models 14 1. Introduction Following the work of Sims (1980), vector autoregressions have been extensively used by economists for data description, forecasting and structural inference. The discussion here focuses on structural inference. The key idea, as put forward by Sims (1980), is to estimate a model with minimal parametric restrictions and then subsequently test economic hypothesis based on such a model. This idea has attracted a great deal of attention since it promises to deliver an alternative framework to testing economic theory without relying on elaborately parametrized dynamic general equilibrium models. The material in this chapter is based on Watson (1994) and Fernandez-Villaverde, Rubio-Ramirez, Sargent and Watson (2007). We begin the discussion by introducing the structural moving average model, and show that this model provides answers to the “impulse” and “propagation” questions often asked by macroeconomists. -
A Gravity Model for Trade Between Vietnam and Twenty-Three European Countries
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND SOCIETY D THESIS 2006 A GRAVITY MODEL FOR TRADE BETWEEN VIETNAM AND TWENTY-THREE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES Supervisor: Reza Mortazavi Author : Thai Tri Do Abstract This thesis examines the bilateral trade between Vietnam and twenty three European countries based on a gravity model and panel data for years 1993 to 2004. Estimates indicate that economic size, market size and real exchange rate of Vietnam and twenty three European countries play major role in bilateral trade between Vietnam and these countries. Distance and history, however, do not seem to drive the bilateral trade. The results of gravity model are also applied to calculate the trade potential between Vietnam and twenty three European countries. It shows that Vietnam’s trade with twenty three European countries has considerable room for growth. Key words: Gravity model, panel data, trade potential, European countries, Vietnam. Table of Contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 1 2. Vietnam’s foreign trade overview.......................................................................................... 2 3. Trade with European countries in OECD .............................................................................. 5 4. Theory and Literature review................................................................................................. 6 4.1 Absolute and comparative advantage.............................................................................. -
Assumption: Tax Revenues Are an Increasing Function of Aggregate Income • E.G
Chapter 1 Mathematics as a Language Mathematics is a deductive science{ie conclusions are drawn from what have been assumed. While doing this, mathematics uses symbols which represent di®erent things in di®erent contexts. But symbols have to be put together or operated consistently in order to make meaningful statements about some given premises. Therefore, mathematics has its own rules to convey information and meaning. In this class we will learn about these rules as well as logical processes to make meaningful statements in the context of economics. Mathe- matics greatly helps with the process of building theories. 1.1 Building Theories What is a theory? It is a thing with the following three parts: 1. de¯nitions 2. assumptions (have to be consistent with one another) 3. hypotheses (\if ... then " statements; that is, predictions). These follow from the assumptions. For example one might have a theory to explain the e®ects of ¯scal policy. The following is not a theory, just examples of de¯nitions, assumptions, and predictions. ² e.g. of a de¯nition: aggregate income is the $ value of everything produced in the year ² e.g. of anwww.allonlinefree.com assumption: tax revenues are an increasing function of aggregate income ² e.g. of a prediction: if government expenditures, G, increase, aggregate income, Y, will increase. A theory must have all three parts and the hypotheses must follow logically (can be deduced) from the de¯nitons and assumptions. The above example de¯nition, assumption and hypothesis is not a theory, the hypothesis does not follow from the de¯nition and one assumption.