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Budget & Business Planning Budget & Business Planning Medium Term Financial Strategy 2021/22 - 2025/26 and Service Analysis 2021/22 Preface This book provides an overview of the council’s planned expenditure and funding and financial strategy for 2021/22 to 2025/26. It also includes for each of the directorates: • The detailed revenue budget for 2021/22 by service area; • Budget changes built into the medium term financial strategy for 2021/22 and the following four years; • Review of Charges 2021/22. The council's contribution to budgets managed jointly with Oxfordshire Clinical Commissioning Group (OCCG) are shown as part of the budgets for Adult Services. The council’s capital programme which shows planned expenditure on new or improved school buildings and roads, for example, is also included. The medium term financial strategy contained in this booklet will support the achievement of the 2021/2022 Corporate Plan which reflects on this year’s challenges and looks to refresh the supporting outcomes of the six overarching priorities: • We listen to our diverse residents so we can continuously improve our services and provide value for money •We tackle inequality, help people live safe and healthy lives and enable everyone to play an active part in their community •We provide services that enhance the quality of life and we take action to reduce the impact of climate change and protect the local environment •We strive to give every child a good start in life and protect everyone from neglect •We enable older and disabled people to live independently and care those in greatest need •We support a thriving and inclusive local economy that recovers strongly from the COVID crises The following supporting themes have also been strengthened to support the above priorities: •Considering the youth offer for Oxfordshire, especially in the context of recovery from COVID and its impact on children and young people (enhancing priority 4). •More clearly reflecting the ambitions of the climate change action plan within the corporate plan, particularly in the context of the opportunities for a green recovery (enhancing priority 3). •Enhancing our focus on reducing health inequalities, healthy place shaping and working to reduce inequality and support those most vulnerable in our society (enhancing focus across a number of the current priorities). •A commitment to supporting the post COVID recovery •This publication complements Oxfordshire County Council’s services and council tax leaflet for 2021/22. This is available on the Council's website www.oxfordshire.gov.uk/cms/content/council-funding-and-spending. It explains how the council tax is spent and provides a summary of the 2021/22 budget. For more information please contact Hannah Doney on (07584 174654) or e- mail [email protected]. 2 Contents Page Introduction 4 Council Summary Information Medium Term Financial Strategy 2021/22 to 2025/26 6 Detailed Medium Term Financial Strategy 2021/22 to 2025/26 19 Earmarked Reserves 21 Government Grants - 2020/21 to 2025/26 22 Financing and Trend Data Financing Oxfordshire County Council 27 Financing Oxfordshire County Council - Trends 2017/18 to 2021/22 28 Council Tax - Values for 2021/22 and Increases since 2017/18 29 Council Tax - Population, Tax Bases and Council Tax Statistics 30 Directorate Detailed Financial Information Children's Services 31 Adult Services 44 Public Health 59 Environment & Place 66 Customers, Organisational Development & Resources 97 Commercial Development, Assets & Investment 133 Capital Programme Capital & Investment Strategy 151 Capital Programme 2020/21 to 2030/31 199 Glossary of Terms Glossary of Terms 224 3 Introduction Key Data 2020/21 2021/22 £000 £000 841,982 Gross Expenditure 888,960 -312,133 less Government Grants -358,346 -54,144 less Income -58,752 0 less Revenue Support Grant 0 -40,546 less Business Rates Top-Up -40,546 less S31 Business Rates Relief Grants -35,125 less Business Rates from District Councils -17,089 -8,589 less Council Tax Surpluses -6,273 391,445 = Council Tax Requirement 407,954 3.99% Increase in Council Tax 3.99% £1,527.44 Council Tax (Band D) £1,527.44 The following tables provide an analysis of the changes in the Council's gross expenditure and income budgets from 2020/21 to 2021/22: £000 % 2020/21 Gross Expenditure 841,982 Permanent Virements Agreed in 2020/21 6,614 0.8% Inflation 1,571 0.2% Function and Grant Changes 14,050 1.7% Previously Agreed Budget Changes 13,006 1.5% Variation to Existing MTFP (agreed 2020/21) -8,082 -1.0% Virements 19,819 2.4% 2021/22 Gross Expenditure 888,960 5.6% £000 % 2020/21 Income (Including Grants) -450,537 Permanent Virements Agreed in 2020/21 -6,613 1.5% Inflation -360 0.1% Function and Grant Changes -47,659 10.6% Previously Agreed Budget Changes -1,988 0.4% Variation to Existing MTFP (agreed 2021/22) 986 -0.2% Virements 25,165 -5.6% 2021/22 Income (Including Grants) -481,006 6.8% This information has changed from the Council Tax Leaflet as more up-to-date information has become available. The overall Council Tax Requirement remains the same. 4 Council Summary Information 5 Financial Strategy 2021/22 Overview 1. The Financial Strategy supports the delivery of other council strategies, such as the Corporate Plan and the Capital & Investment Strategy. It links the council's more detailed service plans, asset management plans and capital plans with the longer term to show that the council's plans are financially achievable. 2. This budget is underpinned by a financial strategy to ensure the financial sustainability of the Council, deliver essential services to residents and achieve our vision for thriving communities for everyone in Oxfordshire, within a limited amount of resource. As in previous years, this will be achieved by focusing on continuous improvement, managing demand, driving through efficiencies and increasing income generation. 3. In order to continue to deliver for our residents and thrive in the longer term, financial sustainability and resilience is essential. This requires successful delivery of two critical elements which reflect the financial planning principles for the budget and medium-term strategy: • Managing the impact of rising need, caused by population growth and increased complexity, for adult and children’s social care through demand management approaches, more effective pathways and delivering better value for money. • Responding to the medium to long term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our ways of working, workforce, residents and economy. 4. The Council has a good track record in delivering savings and delivering value to our residents, with a constant focus on our strategic outcomes and financial prudence. During 2020/21 the Council has demonstrated a proactive and agile approach to financial management by responding to the emerging risk and challenges arising as a result of the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and taking action to set a revised balanced budget. Funding Context 5. The Financial Strategies for 2019/20 and 2020/21 both reflected on the high degree of uncertainty about government funding beyond the next financial year (2020/21 and 2021/22 respectively). The funding context for the 2022/23 Financial Strategy is no different. 6. The Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) expected in 2020 has now been delayed until 2021 with a one-year Spending Review for 2021/22 announced on 25 November 2020. This announcement also confirmed that implementation of the Fair Funding review, and the introduction of 75% Business Rate Retention would be postponed to 2022/23. It was also confirmed that Business Rate baseline reset, which would result 6 in the loss of business rate growth accumulated since 2013/14, would not be implemented for 2021/22. 7. Following the Spending Review, the Provisional Local Government Settlement and consultation was published on 17 December 2020. The Final Settlement is expected to be published in February 2021. 8. The Provisional Settlement confirmed that the latest planning assumptions for government funding set out in the Budget and Business Planning Report to Cabinet in October 2020 were broadly correct. In addition to this, it included the ability for Council’s with responsibility for Adult Social Care to raise an additional Adult Social Care (ASC) Precept of up to 3% over 2021/22 and 2022/23. The MTFS includes proposals to raise a 1% ASC precept in 2021/22 leaving the opportunity to raise a further 2% in 2022/23. Medium Term 9. We recognise the challenges we face both from the uncertain funding environment and the evolving impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our communities. There will be a continued focus on service redesign, commercialism, effective contract management and working with partners to secure value for money in delivering our Corporate Plan priorities and ensuring that the organisation is agile and able to respond to emerging needs and priorities. 10. The impact of the Fair Funding Review is unknown. In addition to this, it is not currently clear how the historic levels of borrowing undertaken by HM Treasury in response to the COVID-19 pandemic will impact on the quantum of funding available for local government and the wider public sector. This makes it very difficult to predict the level of government funding available for 2022/23 and beyond. 11. The proposed Medium Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) has a budgeted shortfall of £7.0m in 2022/23. This is after raising an additional £8.2m from a 2% Adult Social Care Precept. In arriving at the calculated shortfall, it is assumed that the business rate baseline is reset (£3.0m) and the Settlement Funding Assessment is reduced as a result of the Fair Funding Review (£7.6m). It is also assumed that there will be an ongoing impact on the council tax base (estimated growth reduced from 1.91% to 1.50%) and council tax collection rates creating a shortfall of £4.6m compared to the previous MTFS assumptions.
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