Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa

“Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa” A USAID funded collaborative project with the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS

The West African Power Pool & Optimal Long-Term Planning Of International Transmission With A Free-Trade Electricity Policy

Interim Report, 2001

F. T. Sparrow Brian H. Bowen PURDUE UNIVERSITY

ECOWAS Power Pool Conference Dakar, March 20-22, 2001 Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa 1

Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa

SUMMARY Interim Report, 2001

There are major gains to be made, in West Africa, from a regionally integrated free trade electricity policy (base case scenario) compared with limited or no energy trade among the ECOWAS states (scenario 2).

In the free trade scenario the total cost of new lines and expansions on existing transmission lines amounts to only 4.7% of the total capital expenditure (or 1.6% of total regional cost). This $275 million ($100 million to existing lines expansion and $175 million to new lines expansions) for lines capital expenditure provides a very attractive investment basis for making substantial regional savings to the order of $4.5 billion ($21 billion – $16.5 billion) across the region for the 20-year long-term horizon.

In the ECOWAS Zone A over 2000MW of new load carrying capability is added to the two lines, to , and Togo to .

The largest expansion in ECOWAS Zone B is from Cote D’Ivoire to with a total long-term expansion of 442MW. The second largest expansion in Zone B is between Guinea and Senegal, with 365MW.

The total regional lines expansion, with free trade, is 474% (3840MW total compared with 810MW) greater than with national autonomy across the region for the 20 year planning horizon.

For the 20-year horizon is a net exporter of 152TWh in order to achieve minimum regional costs for the 20-year horizon.

Benin and Togo become major wheelers of electricity to Ghana and the rest of the region. Guinea becomes an important center of regional electricity trade for the ECOWAS Zone B.

With an effective free trade scenario there are nearly 9000MW of load carrying capability added to the region’s transmission grid. This is nearly a 900% increase over the 2001existing international transmission capability of 1003MW.

If full autonomy is applied across the region for each country, then there is a 27% increase in total regional cost rising to $21 billion (from $16.5 billion), for the 2001 to 2020 period.

Theoperationalcosts,inthebasecasescenario,are64%ofthetotalcostsandinthe no energy trade scenario consist of 74% of total costs.

In both the base case and scenario 2 there is over 28,000MW of new generating capacity added to the ECOWAS region for the period 2001 to 2020. . Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa 2

1. Background to the February 2001 ECOWAS Electricity Policy Model The main purpose of this report is to highlight the trends, indicated by the ECOWAS regional electricity policy analysis, in optimal (minimum cost) regional international transmission line load carrying expansions. The West Africa electricity power pool model incorporates five existing lines in 2001 (numbered 1 to 5 in Table 1) and twelve proposed new interconnections (numbered 6 to 17). Free trade line expansions, optimized for 2020, are also listed in Table 1.

Table 1. WAPP International Transmission Lines Line Load Line Route Fixed Variable Line Line Name Type* Carrying Voltage Length Capital Expansion capacity Capability (kV) (km) Cost Cost in 2020 (MW) ($106) ($106/MW) (MW)** (1) Ben-Tog OT 150 161 183 0.100 150+2391 (2) BFa-ICo OT 200 225 150 0.101 200+0 (3) Gha-Tog OT 256 161 129 0.102 256+2055 (4) Gha-ICO OT 327 225 220 0.101 327+616 (5) Ngr-Nga OT 70 132 264 0.103 70+72

(6) Ben-Nga NT 560 330 16 20.0 0.100 2767 (7) Gam-Sen NT 20 225 110 27.83 0.273 31 (8) Gui-Sen NT 150 19.27 0.112 365 (9) Gui-ICo NT 150 225 450 65.22 0.102 442 (10) Gui-SLe NT 80 110 93 13.48 0.103 53 (11) Gui-GBi NT 150 225 123 17.82 0.104 15 (12) Gui-Mal NT 90 225 368 53.33 0.105 35 (13) Lib-Gui NT 80 13.48 0.106 20 (14) Lib-SLe NT 80 13.48 0.107 3 (15) Mal-Sen NT 150 225 821 111.34 0.108 3 (16) Mal-ICo NT 100 225 616 88.18 0.109 106 (17) BFa-Gha NT 30 225 1160 7.5 0.400 0 Note: * OT = Old/existing international transmission line * NT = New/proposed international transmission line ** Line capacity in 2020 assuming there has been optimal expansion with free trade policies

The organization of some of the line parameters model coding is illustrated in Appendix I. All of the regions existing and proposed new power stations are listed in Appendix II. The full set of lines and generation data is documented in the ECOWAS Data Set #4 (February 2001). Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa 3

Figure 1. ECOWAS – Country Populations and GNP per Capita Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa 4

Figure 2. ECOWAS – Country MW Capacities & Power Pool ZonesA&B Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa 5

This data set can be downloaded from the Purdue Power Pool Development Group (PPDG) webpage at:

http://IIES.www.ecn.purdue.edu/IIES/PPDG/

Full details of the regional model formulation can be obtained from the Long-Term Model User Manual, Edition 7 (February 2001), and this also can be downloaded from the PPDG webpage.

A summary of the regional population’s distribution and incomes is illustrated in Figure 1. In 2000 the ECOWAS Project Implementation Committee (PIC) recommended the regional establishment of two sub- pools to facilitate the creation of a West African Power Pool (WAPP). These two sub-pools are named Zone A and Zone B. The countries in each of these two pools, and the balance between the existing thermal and hydropower generation capacities, are shown in Figure 2.

The February 2001 ECOWAS regional electricity model is based on the ECOWAS Data Set #4 (February 2001). The results from this model must be considered as demonstration results only.

The February 2001 model results should be very guardedly considered because:- • Important data questions and omissions need to be addressed with the data for Nigeria and Cote d’Ivoire. • Capital and operational cost data, and outage rates need attention. • High electricity demand growth rates are “hoped for” rates rather than expected rates. • A data set has yet to be supplied for .

Data Set #4 is however a big improvement upon the Data Set #3 (August 2000) as a result of the training in data collection in 2000.

2. Optimal ECOWAS Transmission Expansions The transmission expansions are considered for two West Africa scenarios: • Scenario #1, Base Case Scenario – Free Trade is permitted with 50% autonomy factors for electricity energy and for trading in power reserves. • Scenario #2, No Electricity Energy Trade is permitted. The autonomy factors are set at 100%. Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa 6

The November 2000 ECOWAS Technical Working Group (WAPP), at the Ghana data training workshop, specified that three trade scenarios should be considered. The third scenario, with autonomies set at 0%, is only slightly different in its results to the base scenario and so this third scenario in not reported here.

The total cost (capital and operational costs) in the base scenario is $16.5 billion. If full autonomy is applied across the region for each country, then there is a 27% increase in total regional cost rising to $21 billion (from $16.5 billion), for the 2001 to 2020 period. With an effective free trade scenario there are nearly 9000MW of load carrying capability added to the region’s transmission grid (Table 2). This is nearly a 900% increase over the 2001 existing international transmission capability of 1003MW.

Table 2. Total International Transmission Expansions Total Cost Total Existing Total New Total ($ billion) Transmission Transmission Transmission Expansion Expansion Expansion (MW) (MW) (MW) (a) AFs = 50% 16.522 5,134 3,840 8,974 (b) AFs = 100% 21.027 770 810 1,580 (a)/(b) 78% 666% 474% 567%

If trade is kept to a minimum, as in scenario #2, then only 1580MW of total line capacity is added. Scenario #1 has a 666% increase in existing line capacity expansions compared with Scenario #2. Totally new line expansions increase by 474% with the free trade scenario. Limited expansions exist with the no energy trade scenario in order to meet the necessary expansions to provide trade in power reserves to give system reliability.

Tables 3 and 4 illustrate the rate of expansion to the existing transmission lines in Zone A of the proposed West Africa Power Pool (WAPP). In Zone A over 2000MW of new load carrying capability is added to the two lines, Benin to Togo (Ben-Tog), and Togo to Ghana (Gha-Tog). While three to four hundred MW are added to each line in the short-term (years 2003/4), most of this new expansion takes place between 2013 to 2020. With no electricity energy trade the line between Nigeria and is not expanded at all in Scenario #2.

Tables 5 and 6 show the rate of expansions on the proposed new lines of the ECOWAS region. The largest expansion takes place on the Nigeria to Benin line (Ben-Nga) with 2,767MW expansion in the base case and 560MW in scenario #2. In both scenarios there is a larger expansion of the Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa 7

Ben-line in 2003/4 and then the rest of the expansion takes place in the latter part of the 20-year horizon.

In the base case scenario of free trade there are negligible expansions between Liberia and (Lib-SLe), to Senegal (Mal-Sen), and to Cote D’Ivoire (BFa-ICo). Figure 3 summarizes the free trade optimal line expansions in Zones A and B. The largest expansion in Zone B is from Cote D’Ivoire to Guinea with a total long-term expansion of 442MW. The second largest expansion in Zone B is between Guinea and Senegal, with 365MW. Total line capacities are expanded very substantially in the Zone A, as shown in Figure 3.

The total regional expansion with free trade is 474% (3840MW total compared with 810MW) greater than with national autonomy across the region for the 20 year planning horizon. Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa 8

Table 3. Expansion of Existing Transmission Lines with Free Energy Trade (National Autonomy is 50%) (MW) Period 1 Transmission Years 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total Line 2001/2 2003/4 2005/6 2007/8 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20 (1) Ben-Tog 370 70 251 390 488 822 2,391 (2) BFa-ICo (3) Gha-Tog 342 165 366 455 727 2,055 (4) Gha-ICO 112 216 51 237 616 (5) Ngr-Nga 619222572 Total Regional Expansion on existing lines is 5,134MW

Table 4. Expansion of Existing Transmission Lines with No Energy Trade (National Autonomy is 100%) (MW) Period 1 Transmission Years 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total Line 2001/2 2003/4 2005/6 2007/8 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20 (1) Ben-Tog 283 92 56 431 (2) BFa-ICo (3) Gha-Tog 229 1 14 53 297 (4) Gha-ICO 42 42 (5) Ngr-Nga Total Regional Expansion on existing lines is 770MW Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa 9

Table 5. Expansion of Proposed New Transmission Lines with Free Energy Trade (Autonomy is 50%) (MW) New Period 1 Transmission Years 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total Line 2001/2 2003/4 2005/6 2007/8 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20 (6) Ben-Nga 496 64 75 268 407 519 938 2,767 (7) Gam-Sen 21 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 31 (8) Gui-Sen 147 21 25 23 20 25 30 34 40 365 (9) Gui-ICo 336 106 442 (10) Gui-SLe 13 30 10 53 (11) Gui-GBi 61 1 1 2 2 2 15 (12) Gui-Mal 134 35 (13) Lib-Gui 317 20 (14) Lib-SLe 3 3 (15) Mal-Sen 33 (16) Mal-ICo 47 941 106 (17) BFa-Gha 0 Total Regional Expansion with new lines is 3,840MW Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa 10

Table 6. Expansion of Proposed New Transmission Lines with No Energy Trade (Autonomy is 100%) (MW) New Period 1 Transmission Years 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total Line 2001/2 2003/4 2005/6 2007/8 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20 (6) Ben-Nga 418 91 51 560 (7) Gam-Sen 22 (8) Gui-Sen 37 37 (9) Gui-ICo 0 (10) Gui-SLe 31 4 3 4 4 11 57 (11) Gui-GBi 1 1 (12) Gui-Mal 30 10 9 16 65 (13) Lib-Gui 0 (14) Lib-SLe 0 (15) Mal-Sen 0 (16) Mal-ICo 88 88 (17) BFa-Gha 0 Total Regional Expansion with new lines is 810MW Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa 11

Figure 3. Total ECOWAS International Transmission Capacities in 2020 – After Optimal Free Trade Expansion (MW)

31 3 365 35 142 15 106 200 2767 53 442 20 2541 943 2311 3 Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa 12

3. Expansion Costs for 2001 to 2020

The breakdown of the transmission and generation capital costs for the free trade and no electrical energy trade is shown in Table 7. The operational costs, in the base case scenario, are 64% of the total costs and in the no energy trade scenario consist of 74% of total costs.

Table 7. Cost of ECOWAS Transmission & Generation Capacity Expansions for 2001 to 2020 AFs = 50% AFs = 100% Free Trade No Energy Trade Technology Cost Percentage Cost Percentage ($106) of total ($106) of total cost Capital cost 2001-2020 Regional Total Cost 16,522 - 21,027 - (Capital & Operational) Total Capital Cost 5,816 100% 5,457 100% Total Operational Cost 10,706 - 15,570 - Existing Transmission lines 100.28 1.7% 37.99 0.6% Proposed Transmission lines 175.97 3.0% 33.57 0.6% Existing Thermal Generation 63.94 37.99 Proposed Combined Cycle 3,883.26 66.0% 4,009.76 73.0% Existing Hydro generation 35.5 29.05 Proposed Hydro generation 1,533.63 26.0% 1,198.32 22.0% Proposed Combustion Turbines 24.06 21.85

In the free trade scenario the total cost of new lines and expansions on existing transmission lines amounts to only 4.7% of the total capital expenditure (or 1.6% of total regional cost). This $275 million ($100 million to existing lines expansion and $175 million to new lines expansions) provides a sound investment basis for making substantial regional savings to the order of $4.5 billion ($21 billion – $16.5 billion) across the region for the 20-year long-term horizon. Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa 13

Figure 4. Net Electricity Energy Trade for 2001 to 2020 (Exports and Imports) – ECOWAS Free Trade Scenario with AFs = 50% (TWh)

4

30 4 11 142 16 14 152

37 118 Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa 14

4. ECOWAS Electricity Energy Trading, 2001 - 2020 When the ECOWAS regional data collection is completed then a detailed analysis of regional electricity energy trade should be considered. A short summary of the findings in electrical energy trade (TWh, Tera Watt hours = 1012 Wh) is shown in Figure 4 for the net trade (exports – imports) for the 20 year horizon of the February 2001 ECOWAS regional electricity model.

This current model assumes that Nigeria has unlimited ability to build new combined cycle stations (using natural gas) and so this country becomes the major exporter of electricity when a free trade policy prevails across the region. For the 20-year horizon Nigeria is a net exporter of 152TWh in order to achieve minimum regional costs for the 20-year horizon.

Benin and Togo become major wheelers of electricity to Ghana and the rest of the region.

Guinea becomes an important center of regional trade for the WAPP Zone B.

5. Generation Capacity Expansions In order to meet the growing electricity demand of the region and to provide the large increases in regional electricity trade then large generation expansions has to take place.

Table 8. ECOWAS Generation Expansions 2001 to 2020

AFs = 50%, GENERATION CAPACITY (MW) Incremental 2001-2 3-4 5-6 7-8 9-10 11-12 13-14 15-16 17-18 19-20 Comb Cycle| 927 | 585 |1214|1663| 1994|2648 |3450 | 4052|5281 |6405 Turbine | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 15|5| 0|0|0 New Hydro | 432 | 465 | 29 | 147| 90 | 99 | 95 | 13 | 33 | 81 Old Hydro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 96 | 21 | 33|0| 0|0|6

AFs = 100%, GENERATION CAPACITY (MW) Incremental 2001-2 3-4 5-6 7-8 9-10 11-12 13-14 15-16 17-18 19-20 Comb Cycle| 919| 767 |1332 |1722|1884 |2628| 3318| 3733| 4658|5691 Turbine | 0 |0|0|0|31|38|6|0|0|0 New Hydro | 461 | 70 | 69 | 70 | 91 |107 | 90 | 103 | 118 | 148 Old Hydro | 0 |0|0|12|82|55|0|0|0|6 Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa 15

The expansion s in new generating capacity using combined cycle plants (and natural gas) becomes the most significant development for meeting the increased demand. Table 8 shows the rate of expansions in the region. In both the base case and scenario #2 there is over 28,000MW of new generating capacity added to the ECOWAS region (Table 9).

Table 9. Total ECOWAS Optimal Generation Expansions, 2001-2020 (MW) AFs = 50% AFs = 100% Total Generation Expansions 29,934 28,209 Combined Cycle 28,219 26,652 Turbine 75 75 New Hydropower 1,484 1,327 Old Hydropower 156 155

These expansions are likely to be on the high side considering the very high growth rates provided by some utilities. With reduced growth rates these generation expansions could be significantly reduced. Whichever of the electricity trade scenarios is considered about 94% of total the new demand for electricity is being met with the use of natural gas.

Data Set #4 provides for a maximum expansion of 2,310MW of combined cycle expansion in Ghana and the model allows an effective unlimited amount of new combined cycle expansion in Nigeria.

The cost of natural gas in Nigeria, for the new combined cycle plants in set in the model at $2.7 per million Btu. This value is from the earlier SAPP model and was specified by the ECOWAS Secretariat in Lome, Togo, in September 2000. Allowing for a $0.5 shipment cost then the cost of natural gas in Ghana is given as $3.2 per million Btu (2.7+0.5).

There is a higher generation expansion with combined cycle and new hydropower plants in the free trade scenario. In both trade scenarios the expansions with turbines and existing hydropower stations remain the same. Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa 16

6. Recommendations for Future ECOWAS Electricity Policy Analysis The ECOWAS electricity policy analysis is demonstrating the major financial savings that can be made from a regionally integrated electricity expansion and trade policy. The cost minimization analysis emphasizes the top priority projects for the region, from an economic perspective. Further data improvement is required in order to give policy direction to the ECOWAS Secretariat and to the national governments of the West Africa region.

The past six months have seen major improvements in the content and methodology of collecting regional data. Immediate data needs, however, still include: • A complete validation process of the Nigeria data must be completed. Limited attention has been given to this national data set and among the countries of the region Nigeria plays the most significant part in future regional electricity trading. • Nigeria’s new generation capacity expansion plans are needed for the policy analysis. With existing NEPA generation stations a careful reassessment must be made of current outage rates. • Important data questions need to be addressed with the hydropower data for Cote d’Ivoire. It is important that all of the Cote D’Ivoire data is validated for the next ECOWAS Data Set #5. • Capital costs and operational costs (fuel and maintenance) data need careful attention and to be reliably reported in US dollars, using appropriate exchange rates. • High electricity demand growth rates are “hoped for” rates rather than expected rates. The values in Data Set #4 need further confirmation. • A data set has yet to be supplied for Liberia.

As the data in the West Africa regional model becomes more reliable then pricing policies, project construction prioritization, marketing structures, and alternative flexible trading arrangements can be annualized with more substance providing reliable policy guidance.

The results in this interim report, for 2001, are only demonstration values. “Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa” 17

Appendix I “Lines.inc” Input File (in part) to the ECOWAS Regional Electricity Model

****************************** Section 1 ************************* *++++++++++++++++++++++++ Existing Transmission Lines +++++++++++++ Table PFOinit(z,zp) {Tie line capacities (MW)} Ngr GBi Sen Nga Gui Mal Gha BFa Gam Tog Lib ICo Ben SLe gui 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 mal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 gha 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 256.0 0.0 327.0 0.0 0.0 gam 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 tog 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 256.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 150.0 0.0 lib 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 bfa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 200.0 0.0 0.0 ben 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 150.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ico 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 327.0 200.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ngr 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 sle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 sen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 nga 70.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 gbi 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ;

Table PFOVc(z,zp) {cost per MW of expanding existing lines in (mill $)} Ngr GBi Sen Nga Gui Mal Gha BFa Gam Tog Lib ICo Ben SLe gui 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 mal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 gha 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.102 0.0 0.101 0.0 0.0 gam 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 tog 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.102 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 lib 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 bfa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.101 0.0 0.0 “Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa” 18 ben 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ico 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.101 0.101 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ngr 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.103 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 sle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 sen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 nga 0.103 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 gbi 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ;

Parameter PFOVcost(z,zp) ; {convert to dollars} PFOVcost(z,zp) = 1e6*PFOVc(z,zp);

********************************* Section 2 *************************

********************************* Section 3 *************************

Table PFOloss(z,zp) {Transmission loss coefficient on existing lines (fraction)} Ngr GBi Sen Nga Gui Mal Gha BFa Gam Tog Lib ICo Ben SLe gui 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 mal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 gha 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.073 0.0 0.068 0.0 0.0 gam 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 tog 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.073 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.05 0.0 lib 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 bfa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.0 0.0 ben 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.05 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ico 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.068 0.12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ngr 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.045 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 sle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 sen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 nga 0.045 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 gbi 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ; “Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa” 19

PFOloss(z,zp) = PFOloss(z,zp) + 0.0000001;

Table PFOVmax(z,zp) {Maximum MW expansions that can be added to existing lines (MW)} Ngr GBi Sen Nga Gui Mal Gha BFa Gam Tog Lib ICo Ben SLe gui 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 mal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 gha 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 gam 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 tog 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 lib 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 bfa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 ben 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ico 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ngr 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 sle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 sen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 nga 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 gbi 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ;

*+++++++++++++++ Proposed new Transmission Lines +++++++++++++++++++

********************** Section 4 ************************* Table PFNFc(z,zp) {New Tie lines Fixed cost (mill US$)} Ngr GBi Sen Nga Gui Mal Gha BFa Gam Tog Lib ICo Ben SLe gui 0.0 17.82 19.27 0.0 0.0 53.33 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.48 65.22 0.0 13.48 mal 0.0 0.0 111.34 0.0 53.33 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.18 0.0 0.0 gha 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 gam 0.0 0.0 27.83 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 tog 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 lib 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.48 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.48 bfa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 “Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa” 20 ben 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ico 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.22 88.18 0.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ngr 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 sle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.48 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.48 0.0 0.0 0.0 sen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.27 111.34 0.0 0.0 27.83 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 nga 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 gbi 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.82 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ; Parameter PFNFcost(z,zp); {convert from millions to dollars} PFNFcost(z,zp) = PFNFc(z,zp)*1E6;

Table PFNVmax(z,zp) Maximum MW expansions that can be added to a new tie line (MW) Ngr GBi Sen Nga Gui Mal Gha BFa Gam Tog Lib ICo Ben SLe gui 0.0 5000.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 5000.0 0.0 5000.0 mal 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 gha 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 gam 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 tog 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 lib 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 bfa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 ben 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ico 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 5000.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ngr 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 sle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 sen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 nga 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 gbi 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5000.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ;

********************************* Section 5 *************************

* converted to $/MW below Table PFNVc(z,zp) {Cost of additional capacity on new lines Mill ($/MW)} “Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa” 21

Ngr GBi Sen Nga Gui Mal Gha BFa Gam Tog Lib ICo Ben SLe gui 0.0 0.104 0.112 0.0 0.0 0.105 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.106 0.102 0.0 0.103 mal 0.0 0.0 0.108 0.0 0.105 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.109 0.0 0.0 gha 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 gam 0.0 0.0 0.273 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 tog 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 lib 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.106 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.107 bfa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.101 0.0 0.0 ben 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ico 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.102 0.109 0.0 0.101 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ngr 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 sle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.103 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.107 0.0 0.0 0.0 sen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.112 0.108 0.0 0.0 0.273 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 nga 0.11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.25 0.0 gbi 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.104 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ; Parameter PFNVcost(z,zp); {convert to dollars} PFNVcost(z,zp) = PFNVc(z,zp)*1E6; * estimated [Zyu June 12 1998] * updated (as much as possible) [DJG July 6]

Table PFNloss(z,zp) {transmission loss factor on new lines (fraction)} Ngr GBi Sen Nga Gui Mal Gha BFa Gam Tog Lib ICo Ben SLe gui 0.0 0.014 0.015 0.0 0.0 0.032 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.025 0.05 0.0 0.025 mal 0.0 0.0 0.146 0.0 0.032 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 gha 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 gam 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 tog 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 lib 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.025 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.025 bfa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.0 0.0 ben 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.05 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ico 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.05 0.1 0.0 0.12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 “Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa” 22 ngr 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.05 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 sle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.025 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.025 0.0 0.0 0.0 sen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.015 0.146 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 nga 0.05 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.05 0.0 gbi 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ;

PFNloss(z,zp) = PFNloss(z,zp) + 0.0000001;

********************************* Section 6 *************************

********************************* Section 7 ************************* Table PFNinit(z,zp) {Initial Tie lines capacities for New lines (MW)} Ngr GBi Sen Nga Gui Mal Gha BFa Gam Tog Lib ICo Ben SLe gui 0.0 150.0 150.0 0.0 0.0 90.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.0 150.0 0.0 80.0 mal 0.0 0.0 150.0 0.0 90.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 gha 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 gam 0.0 0.0 40.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 tog 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 lib 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.0 bfa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 200.0 0.0 0.0 ben 0.0 0.0 0.0 560.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ico 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 150.0 100.0 0.0 200.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ngr 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 sle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 sen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 150.0 150.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 nga 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 560.0 0.0 gbi 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 150.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ; “Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa” 23

Appendix II

WAPP STATIONS

Station Name MW Station Station Code # Type 1. Benin – Received Dec15, 2000 Akpakpa 31.0 PGO Ben Stat1 20.0 PGO Ben Stat2 AllSmallDiesels 7.6 PGO Ben Stat3 Nangbeto East 32.5 H Ben Stat1 Adjaralla East 48.5 HN Ben Stat1 Dyodyonga South 26.0 HN Ben Stat2

2. BurkinaFaso – Received Nov8, 2000 OuagaI (DataSet#3) 15.2 PGO BFa Stat1 OuagII 38.0 PGO BFa Stat2 Kossodo 16.0 PGO BFa Stat3 BoboI 5.9 PGO BFa Stat4 BoboII 17.0 PGO BFa Stat5 OuagaIII 75.0 PGNGT BFa Stat1 Bagre (DataSet#3) 16.0 H BFa Stat1 Kompienga 14.0 H BFa Stat2 Niofila&Tourni (1.5+0.5) (DataSet#3) 2.0 H BFa Stat3 Noumbiel 60.0 HN BFa Stat1

3. Gambia – Received Dec8, 2000 Kotu 22.8 PGO Gam Stat1

4. Ghana – Received Dec14, 2000 TAPCOtakoradi-1 330.0 PGO Gha Stat1 TICOtakoradi-2 220.0 PGO Gha Stat2 TICOtakoradi-3 330.0 PGNCC Gha Stat1 TEMA 1980.0 PGNCC Gha Stat2 Akosombo 912.0 H Gha Stat1 Kpong 160.0 H Gha Stat2 Bui 400.0 HN Gha Stat1 Juale 87.0 HN Gha Stat2 Pwalugu 48.0 HN Gha Stat3 Hemang 93.0 HN Gha Stat4 “Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa” 24

Station Name MW Station Station Code # Type 5. Guinea – Received Dec11, 2000 TomboI 12.4 PGO Gui Stat1 TomboII 8.6 PGO Gui Stat2 TomboIII 44.0 PGO Gui Stat3 TinkissoKinkon (ROR,1.5+3.2) 4.7 H Gui Stat1 Donkea 15.0 H Gui Stat2 Baneah 5.0 H Gui Stat3 GrandeChutes(ROR) 27.0 H Gui Stat4 Garafiri 75.0 H Gui Stat5 Tiopo 120.0 HN Gui Stat1 ComplexeSouapitiKaleta 975.0 HN Gui Stat2 Fomi 90.0 HN Gui Stat3 FelloSounga 82.0 HN Gui Stat4 Gaoual 39.0 HN Gui Stat5 Morisanako 100.0 HN Gui Stat6 Koukoutamba 281.0 HN Gui Stat7 Guilde 45.0 HN Gui Stat8

6. Guinea Bissau (From DATA SET #3) Bissau Central (page 91) 8.3 PGO Gbi Stat1 Saltinho (page 92) 20.0 HN Gbi Stat1

7. Cote D’Ivoire (From DATA SET #3) TAG5000 (page 32) 80.0 PGO ICo Stat1 G2TAG6000 (page 33) 105.0 PGO ICo Stat2 G2TAG9000 (page 34) 110.0 PGO ICo Stat3 Azito (page 35) 300.0 PGO ICo Stat4 VridiCiprel (page 36) 210.0 PGO ICo Stat5 Ayame1 (page 37) 22.0 H ICo Stat1 Ayame2 (page 38) 30.0 H ICo Stat2 Kossou (page 39) 175.0 H ICo Stat3 Taabo (page 40) 210.0 H ICo Stat4 Buyo (page 41) 165.0 H ICo Stat5 Faye (page 42) 5.0 H ICo Stat6

8. Liberia - Dec7, 2000 (Approximated) BushrodI (Refurbish) 9.0 PGNSC Lib Stat1 BushrodII 12.5 PGNSC Lib Stat2 LukeI 48.0 PGNSC Lib Stat3 LukeII 40.5 PGNSC Lib Stat4 Mitsubishi(Diesel) 10.0 PGNSC Lib Stat5 MtCoffee 64.0 HN Lib Stat1 “Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa” 25

Station Name MW Station Station Code # Type 9. Mali – Received Dec20, 2000 Darsalam1 10.0 PGO Mal Stat1 Darsalam2 20.0 PGO Mal Stat2 Balingue 18.0 PGO Mal Stat3 Sotuba 5.4 H Mal Stat1 Selingue 44.0 H Mal Stat2 Manantali 200.0 H Mal Stat3 Gouina 104.0 HN Mal Stat1 Felou 105.0 HN Mal Stat2 Petit Kenie 56.0 HN Mal Stat3 Markala 5.2 HN Mal Stat4

10. Nigeria (From DATA SET #3) Afam (page 131) 360.0 PGO Nga Stat1 Delta (page 132) 160.0 PGO Nga Stat2 Lagos (Egbin) (page 133) 600.0 PGO Nga Stat3 Sapele (Ogorode) (page 134) 230.0 PGO Nga Stat4 Ijora (page 135) 20.0 PGO Nga Stat5 Kainji (page 128) 760.0 H Nga Stat1 Jebba (page 129) 578.4 H Nga Stat2 Shiroro (page 130) 600.0 H Nga Stat3

11. Niger – Received Nov8, 2000 TahouaMalbaza 4.8 PGO Ngr Stat1 ZinderMaradi(Cold Reserve) 4.9 PGO Ngr Stat2 Goudel(Cold Reserve) 9.0 PGO Ngr Stat3 NiameyII(Cold Reserve) 20.0 PGO Ngr Stat4 Dyodyonga North 26.0 HN Ngr Stat1 Gambou 52.5 HN Ngr Stat2 Kandadji 125.0 HN Ngr Stat3 “Electricity Trade and Capacity Expansion Options in West Africa” 26

Station Name MW Station Station Code # Type 12. Senegal – Received Dec8, 2000 Cap des Biches (C3TAG) 51.9 PGO Sen Stat1 Cap des Biches (C4TAG) 52.25 PGO Sen Stat2 Cap des Biches (C3Vap) 76.7 PGO Sen Stat3 Cap des Biches (C4Dies) 52.3 PGO Sen Stat4 Cap des Biches (C5Dies) 16.0 PGO Sen Stat5 Cap des Biches GT1(GT1) 50.0 PGO Sen Stat6 Bel Air Vapeur (C2Vap) 29.6 PGO Sen Stat7 Bel Air TAG (TAG4) 32.0 PGO Sen Stat8 Kahone Diesel 9.5 PGO Sen Stat9 Bel Air Diesel 7.6 PGO Sen Stat10 St Louis Diesel 4.8 PGO Sen Stat11 Gouina 35.0 HN Sen Stat1 Felou 35.0 HN Sen Stat2

13. Sierra Leone Received Jan20, 2000 KingTomKHD 3.0 PGO SLe Stat1 KingTomSULZER4 9.2 PGO SLe Stat2 KingTomSULZER5 9.2 PGO SLe Stat3 KingTomCAT 3.84 PGO SLe Stat4 KingTomMITSU 5.0 PGO SLe Stat5 KingTomMIRR 6.3 PGO SLe Stat6 Bo 4.9 PGO SLe Stat7 Bumbuna 60.0 H SLe Stat1 Goma 4.0 H SLe Stat2

14. Togo TAG-Lome(Cold Reserve) 20.0 PGO Tog Stat1 CTL(Cold Reserve) 20.0 PGO Tog Stat2 CentraleDeKARA 5.5 PGO Tog Stat3 Sulzer-Lome(Cold Reserve) 12.0 PGO Tog Stat4 NagbetoWest 32.5 H Tog Stat1 AdjarallaWest 48.5 HN Tog Stat1