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Energy Projections for African Countries

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Energy Projections for African Countries Energy projections for African countries Service contract 936531 Authors: Pappis, I., Howells, M., Sridharan, V., Usher, W., Shivakumar, A., Gardumi, F., Ramos, E. Editors: Hidalgo González, I., Medarac, H., González Sánchez, R., Kougias, I 2019 EUR 29904 EN This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Contact information Name: Hrvoje Medarac Address: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Westerduinweg 3, 1755 LE, Netherlands Email: [email protected] Tel.: +31 224 56 5224 EU Science Hub https://ec.europa.eu/jrc JRC118432 EUR 29904 EN PDF ISBN 978-92-76-12391-0 ISSN 1831-9424 doi:10.2760/678700 Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2019 The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by the Commission Decision 2011/833/EU of 12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). Except otherwise noted, the reuse of this document is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is allowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated. For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by the EU, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. All content © European Union, 2019, except: cover image, © S.Gvozd , Adobe Stock How to cite this report: Pappis, I., Howells, M., Sridharan, V., Usher, W., Shivakumar, A., Gardumi, F. and Ramos, E., Energy projections for African countries, Hidalgo Gonzalez, I., Medarac, H., Gonzalez Sanchez, M. and Kougias, I., editor(s), EUR 29904 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2019, ISBN 978-92-76-12391-0, doi:10.2760/678700, JRC118432. Contents Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Key conclusions .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Overview of the African energy system ................................................................................................................................................................ 5 1.2 Energy resource potentials................................................................................................................................................................................................. 8 1.3 Policy context .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9 2 Description of the energy model – Overview of the methodology ........................................................................................................ 10 2.1 Open Source Energy Modelling System .............................................................................................................................................................. 10 2.2 TEMBA model ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 2.2.1 Model structure ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 11 2.2.2 The energy system ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 12 2.2.2.1 Primary fuel supply................................................................................................................................................................................. 12 2.2.2.1.1 Extraction of primary energy ...................................................................................................................................... 12 2.2.2.1.2 Imports and exports ............................................................................................................................................................. 12 2.2.2.2 Summary of cross-border electricity and gas interconnection projects .............................................. 13 2.2.2.3 Oil refining ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 2.2.2.4 Power system ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 2.2.2.5 Assumptions on cooling systems .............................................................................................................................................. 14 2.2.2.5.1 Water factors ............................................................................................................................................................................. 15 2.2.2.6 Losses .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16 2.2.2.7 Other total primary energy supply ........................................................................................................................................... 16 2.2.2.8 Final energy demand ............................................................................................................................................................................ 16 2.2.2.9 Overarching assumptions ................................................................................................................................................................. 16 3 Scenarios ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 18 3.1 Fuel demand projections ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 3.1.1 Reference scenario ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 3.1.2 Other scenarios ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 21 3.2 Carbon dioxide emissions and renewable energy policies................................................................................................................ 22 4 Results .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 23 4.1 Overall energy patterns ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 4.1.1 All Africa.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................
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