ISIS Sanctuary: August 19, 2016

Al Rai Ayn al-Arab Tel Abyad Tigr Atmeh is Manbij Hasaka Mosul Sinjar Arbil

Jableh Qayyarah S y r i a Hawija Kirkuk Sha’er Gas Deir ez Zour Field S y r i a Baiji

Beirut Albu Kamal Rawa Tikrit Qaim Lebanon Ana Eu p h Samarra Haditha rat es Baquba Waleed Hit

Rutba Fallujah Baghdad Ramadi Deraa

West Bank I r a q

T Jerusalem igris Amman Gaza Strip Dead Sea Indicates Change Israel ISIS Control Zone ISIS Attack Zone ISIS Support Zone J o r d a n Iraqi Kurdistan CONTROL ZONE: An area where ISIS exerts physical/psychological pressure to assure that individuals/groups respond as directed.

ATTACK ZONE: An area where ISIS conducts offensive maneuvers.

SUPPORT ZONE: An area free of significant action against ISIS and which permits logistics and administrative support of ISIS’s forces.

SinceSince thethe publication publication of IS ofW’ sISW’s last sanctuary last sanctuary map on May map 25th, on 2016, July ISIS1st, militants 2016, lost ISIS control militants of the city lost of Fcontrolallujah but of were the able city to of launch Manbij spectacular and the attacks town in Lebanonof Al-Rai and onin theNorthern Jordanian Aleppo border. ISIS Province continues in toa serieslose territory of victories in Iraq,and for the U U.S.-led.S.-backed anti-ISISSyrian Democratic coalition. Forces The (SD U.S.-backedF) are threatening Syrian its last Democratic major supply Forcesroute from recaptured ar-Raqqa Manbij City to the from Syrian ISIS-Turkish militants borde ron.Iraqi August Security 15 F orcesafter (ISF) over twocleared months the city of of heavy Fallujah clashes. with support The protracted from coalition fight airstrikes for the on city June demonstrates 26, 2016. The that presence ISIS of Iranian proxy militias in Fallujah, however,will negatively affect government efforts toward Sunni reconciliation. Meanwhile, the ISF began to approach Shirqat,the last ISIS-held district in Salah al-Din Province, on June 18, 2016. The U.S.-backed New retainsSyrian Armythat capability(NSA) began to operation mount “Day a stiff of W defenserath” to seizeof urban the ISIS-held terrain town that of it Albu considers Kamal onto bethe of Syrian-Iraqi strategic importance,border in order suggesting to cut off ISIS that supply coalition lines between forces Iraqwill andface similar on J unetough 29, fights 2016. for The the SD strongholdsF, a coalition consistingof Ar-Raqqa of the SyrianCity in SyriaKurdish and YPG Mosul and allied in Iraq.opposition ISIS groups, also completedlost the townthe encirclement of Al-Rai of Manbijon the on Syrian-Turkish June 10, 2016 and border are conducting to opposition ongoing forcesoperations backed to retake by theTurkey town fromand ISISthe militants.U.S. on ISIS August’s loss 17,of Manbij severing would a impede key cross-border its foreign fighter smuggling flows by route sealing for the fighters Syri- andan- Tsupplies.urkish borde Ther. The loss U of.S. border has stressed access the throughimportance Manbij of retaking and ManbijAl-Rai as will part disrupt of larger the operations ability ofto ISISisolate to and reinforce eventually its seize core the terrai ISISn stronghold or dispatch of ar-Raqqa cells to conductCity. Despite external losses inattacks. its core ISIS terrain, may ISIS respond was able to tothese launch losses two by separate seeking quadruple SVEST (suicide vest) attacks targeting the predominately Christian al-Qaa District of Bekaa valley, in northeastern Lebanon near the Syrian-Lebanese border on June 27, 2016, the day after the ISF cleared Fallujah. ISIS also detonated a SVBIED to(suicide secure vehicle-borne cross-border improvised access explosivein other device) regions, against including a Jordanian Lebanon Army border and post Western in a buffer Syria. zone onFor the example, Syrian-Jordanian ISIS conducted border on June an 21, SVEST 2016. targetingISW’s “ISIS opposition Forecast: Ramadan forces at 2016” the Atmeh assessed thatBorder ISIS Crossingwould likely in mount Idlib attacksProvince in neighboring on the Syrian-Turkishcountries as it loses Bordermomentum on in August Syria during 14. Ramadan, ISIS could which also ends take on July advantage 5. of ongoing infighting between pro-regime forces and the Syrian Kurdish YPG to mount local counterattacks against the in Northern Syria. Meanwhile, the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) continued to set conditions for future operations to retake Mosul. The ISF recaptured the Qayyarah Airfield in Southern Ninewah Province on July 9. The U.S. later announced the deployment of over 500 personnel to the strategic installation to serve as a staging ground for an offensive on Mosul. The ISF also severed the ground line of communication between the ISIS-held towns of Shirqat and Qayyarah in an operation from July 2 – 13 and recaptured the Waleed Border Crossing on the Syrian-Iraqi Border in a separate operation on August 3. ISIS nonetheless retains limited freedom of movement in both areas and will likely conduct local counterattacks to pressure its opponents, as demonstrated by an attack on the Waleed Border Crossing on August 8 – 9. ISIS may also mount a resurgence in previously-cleared areas, in particular Southern Baghdad and the Southern Provinces.