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Puget Sound Marketbook Puget Sound office market overview JLL • Seattle-Bellevue Office Market Overview • 2020 Q2 Contents 01 Puget Sound office market ......... 01 02 Seattle office market .............................. 09 03 Eastside office market .......................... 21 04 Office Capital Markets .......................... 33 JLL.com/seattle JLL (NYSE: JLL) is a leading professional services firm that specializes in real estate and investment management. JLL shapes the future of real estate for a better world by using the most advanced technology to create rewarding opportunities, amazing spaces and sustainable real estate solutions for our clients, our people and our communities. JLL is a Fortune 500 company with annual revenue of $18.0 billion, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of more than 94,000 as of March 31, 2020. JLL is the brand name, and a registered trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. For further information, visit jll.com. 01 Q2 2020 Stay Home, Stay Healthy… Following a quarter where stats looked like business as usual and the day-to-day felt anything but, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the Seattle-Bellevue office market in Q2. While much uncertainty remains, the past few months have provided much needed clarity around the market’s response. Leasing volumes are down significantly as occupiers have adopted a wait-and-see approach and critical components of lease negotiations have been delayed. Sublease availability – traditionally one of the bellwethers for future office demand – has expanded as occupiers slow growth plans, cease operations or transition to a remote work model. Asking rates are up slightly, largely as a result of high-quality sublet space hitting the market, but concessions are also up, and short-term renewals have become much more prevalent. Moving forward, there are two key themes to keep an eye on: the second wave of COVID-19 in Washington State and King County and how the “Jump Start Seattle” payroll tax plays out. JLL • Seattle-Bellevue Office Market Overview • 2020 Q2 2 drop. Deal terms have already begun to shift with Puget Sound 49 percent of deals renewing in place and average lease term down five months quarter-over-quarter. With continued uncertainty in the market, tenants off ice market are slowing expansion plans and pushing long- term decision making out a few quarters. In the overview meantime, the market has experienced an influx of sublease space coming to market. While not all sublease space can be attributed to COVID-19, a number of tenants taking sublease space to the As the first market in the country to identify a market have done so in conjunction with layoffs. coronavirus outbreak, the impact on our office As cash preservation has become key to resiliency market was much more immediate than most. through this uncertain time, tech companies in Many of our largest technology tenants transitioned hyper-growth mode are leasing long-term growth to remote work the first week of March, well before space for terms between three and five years. Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order went into effect on March 23rd. How much activity resumes in Q3 is largely dependent on how the resurgence of coronavirus This effectively ceased all commercial real cases plays out. As cases continue to rise estate operations in the state of Washington. throughout Washington State, the potential for Modifications were made on April 29th to allow dialing back phases in core office markets becomes for construction to resume on projects already a possibility. On July 1st, the rolling seven-day under development, but it wasn’t until King average of confirmed cases was up to 610 across County’s move to Phase 1.5 on June 5th that real the state, an increase from the previous peak of 373 estate offices were allowed to open at limited on March 29th. King County is following a similar capacity and essential meetings like contract trajectory, up to 145 from the previous peak of signing, touring of space, and inspections resumed 160 over the same time period. The subsequent (assuming social distancing regulations are impacts on construction, touring activity, and followed and no more than three people are on site space planning will undoubtedly slow recovery. at a time). Until the impacts of the pandemic are fully realized, most tenants and investors will remain in With only a few weeks in June to tour space, wait-and-see mode. A sharp focus remains on the leasing volume dropped from 2.3 million square large requirements on a post-COVID hold and the feet in Q1 to 795,000 square feet, a 65 percent implications of Seattle’s payroll tax. JLL • Seattle-Bellevue Office Market Overview • 2020 Q2 4 Puget Sound office market overview Puget Sound office market overview Unemployment rate 2000-Q1 2020 16% 14% 12.0% Puget Sound United States Washington State 10.0% 9.8% 8.0% 6.0% 5.2% 4.0% 3.2% 2.0% 0.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD 2020 Employment Puget Sound Washington State United States growth and current unemployment -9.9% -8.9% -8.6% Employment growth Employment growth Employment growth over the past 12 months over the past 12 months over the past 12 months 9.3% 9.8% 11.1% Unemployment rate Unemployment rate Unemployment rate current current current JLL • Seattle-Bellevue Office Market Overview • 2020 Q2 Puget Sound office market overview Change in employment 176,400 Jobs lost in Puget Sound over the past 12 months Information +2% Mining & logging -7% Financial services 2% Manufacturing -6% Government -3% Professional & business services -3% Other services -23% Construction -13% Education & health services -9% Leisure and hospitality -60% 0 -50,000 -100,000 -150,000 -200,000 -250,000 -300,000 -350,000 6 Puget Sound office market overview West Coast office market overview (# West Coast ranking) YTD 2020 net Total Average gross Under Market Inventory absorption vacancy asking rent/SF development Los Angeles 188,411,159 -755,433 13.3% $44.89 6,191,628 Seattle-Bellevue 99,707,290 (#2) 38,477 (#1) 10.1% (#3) $45.19 (#5) 5,626,813 (#3) Orange County 96,231,179 -195,974 13.9% $37.05 1,091,177 San Diego 80,740,430 -85,096 11.8% $38.13 2,309,790 San Francisco 78,790,968 -1,426,514 7.9% $91.62 3,628,169 Silicon Valley 61,396,847 -348,059 9.2% $61.25 8,691,805 Portland 58,556,443 -124,716 12.8% $34.00 1,231,254 Oakland-East Bay 57,726,045 -264,624 14.6% $49.30 0 Sacramento 44,454,062 -118,218 11.9% $25.49 0 San Francisco Peninsula 35,870,095 -384,414 11.0% $70.40 2,430,758 North San Francisco Bay 22,216,041 -182,845 12.0% $35.78 0 West Coast 824,100,559 -3,847,416 11.9% $48.56 31,201,394 JLL • Seattle-Bellevue Office Market Overview • 2020 Q2 Puget Sound office market overview Top 5 sublessors Downtown Seattle / Eastside 1.5 million square feet of sublease space has been added across the Seattle/Puget Sound since March 2020. Expect more sublease space to come online in Q3. Since March 1, 66 percent Downtown Seattle Eastside of new sublease space was added in Seattle 100,000 SF 60,200 SF 8% Northend 2% Southend 80,200 SF 26,000 SF 70,800 SF 24,000 SF 24% Eastside 59,840 SF 23,600 SF 66% Seattle 49,200 SF 16,100 SF 8 02 than 10,000 square feet of space available. An interesting dynamic has emerged with Qualtrics placing over 100,000 Seattle square feet of space at 2+U on the sublease market. Much like Rainier Square, 2+U is new construction space, off ice market delivering in shell condition that acts more like direct space and will compete directly in that space. The key difference between the two is the term length, with Rainier Square’s overview sublet space running through the length of the term, and Qualtrics’ space at 2+U on a shorter-term basis. Half way through a tumultuous year, Despite no new projects breaking ground in Q2, development activity remains slightly elevated at 2.6 million Seattle office down but not out square feet of space, a 500,000 square foot increase above the five-year average. While projects currently underway Downtown Seattle leasing volume declined significantly are 45 percent pre-leased, 79 percent of the space is quarter-over-quarter from 595,000 to 267,000 square feet, available due to the Rainier Square sublease availability. a 55 percent decrease. A variety of pre-COVID requirements Despite rumors to the contrary, Dexter Yard is not leased have been put on hold, while many tenants are simply and remains a litmus test of sorts for large scale, new renewing in place. Of all deals signed, 58 percent were development leasing moving forward. renewals or blend and extends, many of which are short term, an indication that tenants aren’t as willing to enter Amidst COVID-related reductions in office leasing and long term leases in the current environment. Direct asking construction delays, the Seattle City Council voted in favor rates remain relatively flat, down 0.5 percent quarter-over- of the JumpStart Seattle payroll tax. Although it’s too early quarter, while sublease rent went up 4.4 percent. This can to know how it will play out, anything short of a repeal is attributed to two dynamics – an influx of high quality, class likely to reduce demand amongst Seattle’s largest tenants.
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