Town of Lincoln, Vermont

Single Jurisdiction All-Hazards Mitigation Plan

Final Plan Adoption Date: __/__/____ FEMA Approval Date: __/__/____

Contents 1. Planning Process ...... 3 1.1 Current Plan Development Process ...... 3 1.2 Opportunities for Public Comment ...... 4 1.3 Opportunities for Public Comment ...... 4 1.4 Extent of Review...... 5 2. Local Background and Maps ...... 6 2.1 Community Background ...... 6 2.2 Community Maps ...... 8 3. Existing Adopted Plans Which Support Hazard Mitigation ...... 14 3.1 2019 Lincoln Emergency Operations Plan ...... 14 3.2 2017 Town Plan ...... 14 3.3 2018 Addison County Regional Plan ...... 15 3.4 2018 State of Vermont Hazard Mitigation Plan ...... 15 4. Community Risk Assessment ...... 17 4.1 Local All-Hazards Planning Map ...... 17 4.2 Risk Prioritization Process/Result ...... 18 4.3 Hazard Type, Location, Extent, and Vulnerability ...... 22 4.3.1 Ice Storms ...... 22 4.3.2 High Winds ...... 25 4.3.3 Highway Accidents ...... 27 4.3.4 Flood/Flash Flood ...... 29 4.3.5 Extreme Temperatures (Heat and Cold) ...... 32 5. Mitigation Strategies ...... 38 5.1 Hazard Mitigation Goals ...... 38 5.2 Authorities of Town Officials ...... 39 5.3 Ongoing Strategies by Hazard Type ...... 40 5.4 Project Prioritization Process ...... 44 5.5 Proposed Mitigation Actions by Hazard Type ...... 44 5.6 Mitigation activities undertaken since the original plan adoption in 2012 ...... 48 6. Plan Maintenance Procedure ...... 49 6.1 Plan Review/Update Process ...... 49 6.2 Programs Initiatives and Projects Reviews ...... 50 6.3 Post-Disaster Review Procedures ...... 50 7 Plan Adoption Resolution ...... 51

1. Planning Process

1.1 Current Plan Development Process

The Town of Lincoln Selectboard passed a motion confirming their intent to work through the process of writing an All-Hazards Mitigation Plan at a meeting of the Town Selectboard on 5/7/19. At its meeting on X/X/XX, the Lincoln planning commission agreed with the actions of the Selectboard, including working with a town mitigation committee as part of its rewrite of the Lincoln town plan. At the confirmation of funding availability, the Selectboard further showed their support of the plan by appointing the following residents of Lincoln to a mitigation planning committee:

• Barb Rainville, Lincoln Emergency Management Director • Dan Ober, Lincoln Volunteer Fire Department Chief • Eleanor Scully, Lincoln Town Health Officer • Ann Kensek, Lincoln Selectboard Assistant

The committee met 11/15/18 to complete a hazards inventory and risk assessment matrix and to flesh out locations where hazards are known to the community. Following the meeting, a draft Town of Lincoln, VT Hazard Mitigation Plan was created by staff at the Addison County Regional Planning Commission (ACRPC) and circulated to committee members. The committee met again on 8/22/19 to identify potential mitigation projects associated with the hazards identified. At that meeting a copy of the draft hazard mitigation plan was provided for the town office along with a comment sheet so residents visiting the office could review and make comments

Input on the draft plan was requested from town residents during open meetings of the Town Planning Commission and the Town Selectboard where copies of the draft plan were available for review. The town also made the plan available on its website lincolnvermont.org to reach a broader distribution. The plan was distributed to the Addison County Local Emergency Planning Committee (LEPC 8) for review at its December 2019 meeting.

Based on comments from the public process, the draft plan was further edited and forwarded to Vermont’s State Hazard Mitigation Officer on X/X/19 for comments and preliminary approval. Preliminary approval by the SHMO was provided on X/X/XX and the draft plan received Selectboard approval on X/X/XX before being sent to FEMA reviewers. Comments were received back from FEMA reviewers on X/X/XX.

Changes were made to the draft plan based on FEMA recommendations and an updated draft was completed on X/X/XX. Upon completion of this draft, the plan was further circulated to the Town Selectboard and hazard mitigation committee for approval prior to being returned to FEMA for Approval Pending Adoption (APA) status. Upon receipt of the FEMA APA, the resulting document was adopted by the Lincoln Selectboard on X/X/XX. The final adopted plan was then forwarded to FEMA Region I for approval which was received on X/X/XX.

1.2 Opportunities for Public Comment

Multiple opportunities for public comment were made available during the planning process. All persons reviewing the drafts including the public and neighboring communities were instructed to send comments to Andrew L’Roe at [email protected] for review for possible inclusion.

• A planning committee was appointed from volunteers and town officers at an open meeting of the Town Selectboard on XX/XX/2018. • The plan was made available on the Town website http://lincolnvermont.org/ for public comment while in draft form. (No comments received) • A copy of the draft plan was made available for public comment at the Town Office on X/X/XX with a comment sheet. (No comments received) • Meetings of both the Town Selectboard and the Town Planning Commission were open for public comment throughout the planning and draft phases of this plan. (No comments received)

1.3 Opportunities for Public Comment

Additional opportunities for regional and state-level comments in the draft stage were provided throughout the planning process.

• A copy of the draft plan was posted on the ACRPC website www.acrpc.org for regional review and notice was given during the October 2019 ACRPC full commission meeting as to its availability. No comments were received. • The 12/3/19 ACRPC newsletter included an announcement that a draft plan was available for public review and comment. That draft was posted in the ACRPC office for review and comment. No comments received. • A copy of the draft plan was posted on the ACRPC website www.acrpc.org for regional review and notice was given during monthly meetings of ACRPC requesting input. • The bordering towns of Starksboro, Bristol, Ripton, and Warren were notified of the posting on X/X/XX and comments were requested to be sent to [email protected] . No comments were received. • A copy of the draft plan was provided to the State Hazard Mitigation Office for comments which were received on X/X/19 • An updated copy was sent to DEMHS for submission to FEMA on X/X/XX • FEMA Region 1 staff was sent a draft for comment on X/X/XX

1.4 Extent of Review

Throughout the plan update process all sections of the plan were reviewed for accuracy. Recently completed studies and newly developed data were included in the document. Information from the following documents and sources were incorporated into this plan either as data or to inform the committee’s prioritization process:

• 2019 Local Emergency Management Plan • 2018 Local Emergency Operations Plan (previously identified high hazard and vulnerable sites) • 2017 Lincoln Town Plan (support for the committee’s prioritization process and section 2 narrative) • 2018 Addison County Regional Plan (transportation section used to identify high accident locations) • 2018 State of VT Hazard Mitigation Plan (provided a listing of statewide hazard concerns) • 2018 Report of the State Fire Marshall (provided data to inform structure and wild fire risks) • FEMA website www.fema.gov (for a listing of Addison County declared disasters and their damages) • The Vermont Weather Book by David Ludlum (provided historic accounts of disasters for Section 4.3) • National Climatic Data Center website (provided information for Section 4.3) • FEMA Snow Load Safety Guide (informed Section 4.3) • FEMA FIRMS dated 8/19/1986 (incorporated into maps and section 4.3) • LEPC #8 Tier II reports (reviewed for Section 4.3) • VT Center for Geographic Information data layers (incorporated into map products) • Town of Lincoln Grand List for 2018 (utilized to determine value of identified properties) • State of Vermont transmissible disease information www.healthvermont.gov (incorporated into section 4.3) • State of Vermont dam inventory database (incorporated into section 4.3) • Lincoln Annual Town Reports 1980-2017 (informed FEMA reimbursements in table #1)

2. Local Background and Maps “Lincoln, the town that lies beneath Mount Abe, may be the most picturesque in Vermont and among the most isolated. The only road east, a dirt track that climbs steeply through a mountain gap, is closed half the year by snow. The rest of the time, what traffic there is funnels to the west through another narrow gap” -Bill McKibben, Wandering Home (2005) 2.1 Community Background The Town of Lincoln is located on the western slopes of the Green Mountains at the base of Mount Abraham It has four distinct village centers, Lincoln (the primary center), West Lincoln and South Lincoln located along the New Haven River, and Downingsville to the northeast. The town hosts no State highways within its borders. The population of Lincoln grew steadily from less than five hundred people in 1960 to over twelve hundred in 2000. The population has remained approximately 1,270 since 2005. In Lincoln, most homes are single-family wood structures (~80%), less than 5% are multi-family units and approximately 8% are mobile homes.

While much of Vermont’s population is housed in pre-1950s housing, the Town of Lincoln has seen a slow increase in housing over the past three decades. From 2008 to 2018, twenty- nine houses were built. Of the 608 housing units in Lincoln, approximately 87% are single family homes, 6.1% are multi-family units and 15% are for seasonal, recreational or occasional use. More than 6.4% of housing structures are mobile homes, generally more susceptible to disaster than permanent structures. Of the 551 employed Lincoln residents, 2% worked in town; 15% worked in Middlebury; 9% in Bristol, 6% in Burlington and 5% in South Burlington. Most of the town is forested, with 11,000 acres (40% of total land area) part of the Green Mountain National Forest. Several large properties have been set aside in permanent conservation easements. The majority of the remaining undeveloped private land in town is enrolled in the Current Use program in which owners pay property taxes commensurate with the value of products generated from the land. These programs reduce the amount of developable land and cause the remainder to be higher in price than in some neighboring communities.

In Lincoln, power is provided by Green Mountain Power (GMP, formerly Central Vermont Public Service) and telephone service is provided by Champlain Valley Telecom. Water comes from individual well/springs and each home has its own septic system.

The majority of town residents, rely on drilled wells for their drinking water. A map of wellheads is available in the Town Clerk’s Office. Some groundwater wells produce water containing nuisance substances such as iron, manganese, hardness minerals, hydrogen sulfide gas and sulfate reducing or iron fixing bacteria. Well yields vary from plentiful to extremely low and highly problematic.

Other residents rely on a mix of groundwater and surface water in wells that are relatively shallow dug wells or springs. Such wells are susceptible to natural contamination and pollutants such as leaking petroleum or industrial tanks, road salt, failing septic systems and agricultural chemicals.

The Addison County Sheriff’s Department provides Civil Process for the entire county. The Vermont State Police provide service for motor vehicle regulation and criminal law enforcement.

There is a dedicated group of volunteers in the Lincoln Volunteer Fire Company with equipment housed in the Firehouse at 34 Gove Hill Rd. The annual budget, including fire station maintenance, for 2019 was set at about $42,000 with a portion to be covered by town funds. In 2018 the department responded to 114 calls, the majority of which were for Emergency Medical Responses, as well as fire-related incidents (Fire, Alarm, Motor Vehicle, power lines, CO, etc.) and backcountry rescues.

The Bristol Rescue Squad, Inc., a local non-profit organization responds to calls in Lincoln. Bristol Rescue Squad bills for its services, receives additional funding from towns serviced, and accepts donations. In 2019 Bristol Rescue Squad, Inc. was allocated $7,500 by the town.

There are no medical facilities in Lincoln, but many doctors, nurses and dentists are available a short distance north or south of town. Addison County Home Health and Hospice can make home visits, and the Community Health Services of Addison County has an Open Door Clinic in Middlebury.

The Town has identified Barb Rainville as the Emergency Manager and uses a Local Emergency Operations Plan (LEOP) to coordinate response to larger incidents. The LEOP identifies the Lincoln Fire Station and Lincoln Town Clerk’s office as emergency operations centers and Lincoln Community School and Burnham Hall as community shelters. The LEOP also identifies high hazard areas and vulnerable sites primarily based on Flooding, HAZMAT and likely transportation incidents.

Lincoln has its own Highway Department with a full-time Road Foreman and two additional employees. The department is responsible for summer maintenance, winter snow removal and maintenance, and reconstruction of town highway infrastructure. Lincoln has a maintenance facility and various pieces of road maintenance and construction equipment which are factored into a capital equipment replacement fund.

Highway expenditures are the largest item within the town (non-school) budget. The budget is approximately $1,052,136, of which $683,810 (65%) is raised through taxes. About half of the budget pays for winter maintenance with small portions going toward bridge and highway construction.

The Town has been a member of the National Flood Insurance Program since 8/19/1986 (FIRM maps 8/19/1986) and as such has adopted zoning by-laws designating Flood Hazard Areas including associated regulations for administering those areas. Fortunately, much of the mapped floodplain is associated with large areas of wetlands rather than floodplain. The availability of alternate sites has thus far discouraged development along these low-lying areas due to difficulties in disposing of septage and the costs of complying with floodplain regulations.

2.2 Community Maps 2.1.1. Road Names

2.1.2. Transportation Volumes

2.1.3. Population Density

2.1.4. River Corridors and Municipal Facilities

2.1.5. Utilities and Facilities

2.1.6. Future Land Use and Zoning

3. Existing Adopted Plans Which Support Hazard Mitigation The following plans pre-date this plan and are used as an example of how Lincoln, the Addison region and the State of Vermont have incorporated mitigation into standard planning mechanisms. As planning efforts continue forward, this plan will continue to inform and be integrated into these and other future planning processes.

3.1 2019 Lincoln Emergency Operations Plan • Identifies Municipal Emergency Operations Center (EOCs), Resources, Public Information and Warning systems, and Shelters. • Identifies vulnerable sites, including: o Lincoln Community School, 795 East River Road o Lincoln Cooperative Pre-School, 876 East River Road o Weathervane United apartments, 23 Quaker Street

3.2 2017 Town Plan • Lincoln must balance its desire to build on its traditional settlements within the river valley, but also protect the safety of its residents and their property from the power of the river. (p11) • The FEMA Floodplain Overlay Area…limits development within the river corridor to promote the public health, safety and general welfare, prevent increases in flooding caused by the uncontrolled development of lands in the floodplain, and minimize losses due to floods. (p11) • Riverine Habitat and River Corridor Overlay Area…promotes the health, safety and welfare of the citizens of Lincoln by allowing the river to move within its corridor; minimizes property loss and damage due to river erosion; and limits land uses and development that may pose a danger to health and safety. (p12) • Future Land Use Goals: o 1) Promote the health, safety and welfare of the citizens of Lincoln by strictly regulating the types, locations and aesthetic impacts of commercial development in Lincoln. o 5) Protect the river corridor areas from excessive development that would create potentially dangerous impacts on the river, downstream property owners or its water quality. ▪ a. Limit development within the river corridor to promote the public health, safety and general welfare, and to minimize losses caused by flooding and fluvial erosion. ▪ b. Work with the Select Board and Fire Department to investigate alternatives for relocation of the fire station and certain roads near the rivers susceptible to washing out, to preserve the ecological functions and minimize erosion of the Riverine Habitat and River Corridor Overlay Area as noted in the current plan. • Maintain Lincoln’s road system to provide safe, cost-effective travel options for its residents and visitors. (p53) • Increase pedestrian and bicycle safety and accessibility in the area (p54) • Flood Resiliency Management yields multiple benefits—financial, health and safety, environmental, ecological and aesthetic—to the entire community at the lowest possible cost over time. (p59)

3.3 2018 Addison County Regional Plan

Goals that support hazard mitigation:

• Work to restore and maintain stream equilibrium by developing and implementing river corridor plans. • Reduce flooding and related damages through appropriate mitigation techniques. • Encourage watershed-based cooperation and educate towns and the general public about water quality and stream dynamics • Provide communities the support they need to be proactive in reducing flood and erosion hazards by adopting appropriate zoning regulations to limit development in hazardous areas. • Encourage proper maintenance and sizing of bridges, culverts and other structures to accommodate flow from storm events and to mitigate flood hazards. • Reduce the loss of life and injury resulting from all hazards. • Mitigate financial losses incurred by municipal, residential, industrial, agricultural and commercial establishments due to disasters. • Reduce the damage to public infrastructure resulting from all hazards. • Recognize the connections between land use, storm-water, road design/ maintenance and the effects from disasters. • Ensure that mitigation measures are sympathetic to the natural features of the region’s rivers, streams and other surface waters; historic resources; character of neighborhoods; and the capacity of the community to implement them. • Encourage hazard mitigation planning as a part of the Municipal Planning Process. • Encourage municipalities and landowners to consider VT Agency of Natural Resources riparian guidelines for habitat and flood protection.

3.4 2018 State of Vermont Hazard Mitigation Plan

Identified Goals and Strategies that support Hazard Mitigation:

• Protect, restore and enhance Vermont’s natural resources to promote healthy, resilient ecosystems. o Promote land management standards for State and private lands o Improve headwater storage o Reduce negative impacts of instream work o Improve flood resilience of agricultural lands o Promote drought resilience o Connect water quality, flood resilience and native habitat connectivity through co- benefits • Enhance the resilience of our built environment – our communities, infrastructure, buildings, and cultural assets. o Locate new development outside of hazardous areas o Develop resilient design and construction standards o Incorporate flood resilience in transportation planning, engineering and programming

o Assess seismic vulnerability o Identify and protect vulnerable structures and critical infrastructure o Reduce structural vulnerability to landslide hazards o Protect cultural and historic resources o Establish a statewide conservation and buyout program o Improve dam resilience • Develop and implement plans and policies that create resilient natural systems, built environments, and communities. o Ensure State programs support hazard mitigation goals o Develop solutions to fund hazard mitigation o Improve incentives for local hazard mitigation planning and action o Improve local hazard mitigation planning • Create a common understanding of – and coordinated approach to – mitigation planning and action. o Improve local leaders' understanding of hazard mitigation o Increase public knowledge and literacy of hazards and mitigation o Improve community resilience and local engagement

4. Community Risk Assessment

4.1 Local All-Hazards Planning Map

4.2 Risk Prioritization Process/Result

Hazard Inventory/Risk Assessment Parameters

Probability: Frequency of Occurrence 1= Unlikely <1% in a given year 2= Occasionally 1%-10% probability in a given year 3= Likely >10% but <100% in any given year 4= Highly Likely 100% probability in a given year

Warning: Time available to give notice to the majority of the population 1= More than 12 hours 2= 6-12 Hours 3= 3-6 hours 4= <3 hours (minimal)

Geographic Impacts: How much of the population is expected to be impacted 1= Isolated Locations/neighborhood <20% of population impacted 2= Moderate impact >20% and <75% of population impacted 3= Community-wide >75% of population impacted within community 4= Region-wide Level 2 & 3 impacts in surrounding communities

Property Damage: Severity of damages and disruption 1= Negligible Isolated property damage, minimal disruption to infrastructure 2= Minor Isolated moderate to severe property damage, brief disruption to infrastructure 3= Moderate Severe damages at neighborhood level, temporary closure of infrastructure 4= Major Severe damages town-wide, temporary to long-term closure of infrastructure

Level of Committee Concern 1= Low level of Concern Not worth spending a lot of time with 2= Moderate Level of concern Could happen, but mitigation costs are high and benefits are low 3= High Level of Concern Worth exploring more, developing mitigation projects for 4= Extreme Concerns Town is generally mitigating as much as they can, really need assistance

Vulnerability: Total score of Probability, Warning, Geographic Impact, and Property Damage 1= Low Priority ≤ 8 total score, low/no cost mitigation projects only 2= Medium Priority >8 and ≤10 total score 3= High Priority >10 and ≤12 total score 4= Highest-Regional/State-wide Priority >12 total score

Town of Lincoln Risk Assessment 11/15/2018

Overall Overall

Impacts

Damage

Concern

Property Property

Occurrence

Vulnerability

Committee

Total Total Score Geographic Geographic

Hazard Damage Type (Probability)

Frequency of of Frequency Warning Warning Time Ice Storm Power Outages or Road Closures 4 1 4 3 3 15 4 High Winds Power Outages 4 1 3 3 3 14 4 Highway Human Injury, Road Closure 4 4 1 2 3 14 4 Accident Flash Flood Property Damage, Road 3 3 2 2 3 13 4 Closures, Human Injury Extreme 4 1 4 1 3 13 4 Health Risks Temperature Severe Snow Closed Roads 4 1 4 2 1 12 3 Structure Fire Property Damage, Human Injury 4 4 1 1 2 12 3 Hurricane/ Property and Infrastructure Damage, 3 1 4 3 1 12 3 Tropical Storm Road Closures, Human Injury Wildfire Structure Damage, Road Closure 4 4 1 1 1 11 3 Lightning Property Damage or Structure 4 4 1 1 1 11 3 Strike Fire Hail Property Damage 4 2 3 1 1 11 3 Insect-borne Health Risks 4 1 2 1 3 11 3 Illness Invasive Ecological Damage 4 1 2 1 3 11 3 Species Inundation Property Damage, Road 2 1 2 3 2 10 2 Flooding Closures Ice Jam Property Damage, Road 2 4 1 2 1 10 2 Closures Infectious 3 1 1 1 3 9 2 Health Risks Disease HazMat Spill 2 4 1 1 1 9 2 Health Risks/ Contamination Drought 3 1 2 1 1 8 1 Health Risks, Crop Loss Landslide/ Property and Infrastructure 1 4 1 1 1 8 1 Rockslide Damage, Road Closure Tornado Power Outage or Structural Damage 1 4 1 1 1 8 1 Earthquake Property Damage 1 4 1 1 1 8 1 Dam Failure Property and Infrastructure Damage, 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 Road Closures, Human Injury

Vermont Declared Disasters by County, 2000-2018

Given the actual expenses the community has incurred since 1973, (See Table #1 Below), the committee’s assessment closely mirrors its disaster experience. Table 1. Federally declared disasters affecting Addison County

Year Date Description Dec. # County Cost Lincoln Cost 1973 7/6/1973 Severe Storms, Flooding, DR397 $ Unavailable Unknown Landslides 1976 8/5/1976 Severe Storms, High Winds, DR518 $ Unavailable Unknown Flooding 1977 9/6/1977 Drought EM3053 $ Unavailable Unknown 1989 8/4-5/1989 Severe Storms, Flooding DR840 $ 31,033 Unknown 1993 4/24- Flooding, Heavy Rain, DR990 $ 17,639 Unknown 5/26/1993 Snowfall 1996 1/19- Storms, Flooding DR1101 $ 130,529 Unknown 2/2/1996 1998 1/6-16/1998 Ice Storms DR1201 $ 662,388 Unknown 1998 7/17- Severe Storms and Flooding DR1228 $ 2,146,484 Unknown 8/17/1998 2000 7/14-18/2000 Severe Storms and Flooding DR1336 $ 738,127.27 $103,319.34 2001 3/5-7/2001 Snowstorm EM3167 $ 138,333.08 $ 3,725.14 2004 8/12- Severe Storms and Flooding DR1559 $ 430,551.00 - 9/12/2004 2008 6/14-17/2008 Severe Storms and Flooding DR1778 $1,114,515.70 $ 4,633.66 2008 7/21- Severe Storms and Flooding DR1790 $2,273,481.42 - 8/12/2008 2011 4/23- Severe Storms and Flooding DR1995 $ 384,416.53 - 5/9/2011 2011 8/26- Hurricane Irene, EM3338 $ Unavailable Unknown 9/2/2011 Tropical Storm Irene DR4022 $1,175,911.20 $182,360.06 2012 5/29/2012 Severe Storm, Tornado and DR4066 $ 172,847.70 - Flooding 2014 12/9-13/2014 Severe Winter Storm DR4207 $ 184,715.05 $ 6,618.72 2015 6/9/2015 Severe Storm and Flooding DR4232 $ 893,310.63 Unknown 2017 7/1/2017 Flooding DR4330 $ Unavailable Unknown

4.3 Hazard Type, Location, Extent, and Vulnerability

The five highest vulnerability scores from the 11/15/2018 HIRA have been profiled below and updated from their 2012 profiles. The highest hazard vulnerabilities are evaluated in their order of importance based on the 2018 HIRA. Profiles of other hazards from the 2012 plan are included following the 2018 profiles as reference. These were not re-profiled as they did not meet the threshold established by the committee’s work in 2018-19.

4.3.1 Ice Storms Location: As a 98% forested community, nearly all of Lincoln’s roads and powerlines are subject to accumulations of ice. Lincoln is particularly susceptible to widespread power outages because the main power supplying line runs overland and can become inaccessible. Falling trees and/or ice accumulation on this line results in power outages over most of the town.

Extent: Generally, at levels exceeding ½ inch of ice accumulation coupled with moderate winds, the Town of Lincoln experiences power outages. Depending on the severity of the damage, power losses often continue for days. These conditions occur often enough that many town residents have a back-up power system installed and the fire station can open as a warming shelter.

Previous Occurrences: With the almost annual occurrence of a significant snow or ice storm, the town feels the impact of a winter storm most on the infrastructure of the community. The town is able to keep the roads open and treated for most storms and rarely has lost the ability to keep up with a winter storm due to the Town’s high preparedness level and ongoing mitigation actions. In 1998 a severe ice storm hit much of northern Vermont and the Town of Lincoln was not spared. Power outages continued for several days as remote power lines were accessed by off-road vehicles. P/A reimbursable damages associated with this storm topped $24,000. In March of 2001 the so-called “Town Meeting Day” snow event caused reduced ability for residents to travel to the voting booth due to hazardous conditions. Some of the additional costs of keeping roads open on voting day were reimbursed through State and Federal assistance. In February 2007, a significant snowstorm coupled with high wind nearly crippled much of Vermont including the Addison County region. This “Valentines’ Day Blizzard” stressed the resources of most local communities, including the Town of Lincoln, to capacity. The ice and snow storm of December 2014 (DR4207) coated all branches with a half inch of ice and an inch or two of damp snow which damaged many trees and left the town without power for four days. Relatively mild temperatures afforded households with woodstoves or generators the choice of staying put. Roads and driveways needed to be cleared of trees or branches multiple times and clean up was completed in July 2015.

Future Probability: Our currently changing climate has been accompanied by moderating winter temperatures. When temperatures hover around the freezing point, the difference between ice storm and snow are a matter of a few degrees. Local knowledge indicates that those conditions seem more prevalent in the past 15-20 years. A prudent forecaster would predict a more frequent occurrence of ice storms into the future.

Vulnerability Summary: As previously indicated, many of Lincoln’s residences are equipped with a source of back-up power to carry them through periods of power outages. Unfortunately, the 98% of Lincoln that is covered by forest makes all of the town’s roads and power lines susceptible to damage due to falling trees covered with ice. Mitigation activities by power companies have re-routed many of the remote lines along town highways since the 1998 ice storm and an increased pruning effort has reduced the impact of a similar event would it happen today.

The regular occurrence of winter storms causes most residents to maintain a high level of preparedness for winter ice storms. The Town of Lincoln generally mitigates its winter storm risk through its contracted highway maintenance. The periodic cutting of brush along town highways mitigates the effects of large winter storm events by reducing their ability to act as snow fence dropping windblown snow into the town highway system.

4.3.2 High Winds Location: The western slopes of the Green Mountains are especially prone to strong windstorms with gusts of 70 to 80 mph. Surrounded by tree-covered National Forest land, high winds in Lincoln can result in damages similar to those of ice storms. High winds can be experienced almost anywhere in the Town of Lincoln and are generally seen in any corridor running north/south along the ridges of town. Especially noted by the committee are areas north of the town center along Quaker St. and Downingsville Rd, as well as some of the roads in the southern part of town. Extent: Extreme high winds can wreak havoc resulting in downed trees, power outages, roof failures and overturned trailers/trucks across wide areas. These, in turn can result in electrical fires, failed communications towers and substandard housing for those impacted. Elsewhere in the region, roofs have collapsed, trees have been uprooted and outdoor furniture has been lost. High winds in excess of 50 mph cause noticeable damage but those which exceed 60mph are most noticeable resulting in structural damage to buildings. Fortunately, in high wind events the forested landscape tends to moderate the property damages resulting from highest of winds except for those on the edges of open areas. Previous Occurrences: NCDC records indicate the Addison Region has experienced 34 High Wind events and 35 Strong Wind events over the past 25 years resulting in $1,451,000 in cumulative property damage and $25,000 in crop damages. The Addison Independent archives record the damages associated with the “Great Windstorm of November 1950”. That storm saw the remnants of a late season hurricane, blow through the Addison region between the Town of Pittsford in Rutland County and the City of Vergennes west of Lincoln. “Hundreds of trees were uprooted, miles of fences ruined, seven out of every ten houses suffered roof damage…Barns were blown down, 1,000

25 head of cattle are dead, families are temporarily homeless.” This storm resulted in over $1million in damages in 1950 dollars, an amount equal to over $10 million in 2016 dollars.

Locally, the Lincoln hazard mitigation committee recalled several recent times when severe winds caused damage in town. High winds are expected to remain a highly probable event.

Table 2. Beaufort Wind Scale

Speed Force Description Specifications (mph)

< 1 0 Calm Calm; Smoke rises straight up

1-3 1 Light Air Wind motion causes smoke to drift slowly

4-7 2 Slight Breeze Leaves rustle, wind is felt on exposed skin

8-12 3 Gentle Breeze Leaves and small twigs in constant motion

13-18 4 Moderate Breeze Small branches move; dust and loose paper raised

19-24 5 Fresh Breeze Small trees sway;

25-31 6 Strong Breeze Large branches sway; overhead wires “whistle”

32-38 7 Near Gale Whole trees in motion; walking into wind takes effort

39-46 8 Gale Twigs break off trees; cars veer on the road

47-54 9 Severe Gale Branches break; Light structural damages

55-63 10 Whole Gale Trees blown over; considerable structural damage

64-73 11 Storm Widespread structural damages

74+ 12 Hurricane Considerable and widespread damage to structures

Future Probability: Over the past 15-20 years there has been an observable increase in the severity and frequency of storms in Addison County. The Lincoln Hazard Mitigation Committee collectively commented that there has been an observable increase in storms with sustained winds recently. Extremes in warming and cooling which we have seen in recent years lead to high winds as convective forces meet cooling forces. It is probable that in the future, we will not see a lessening in winds or wind producing storms. Certainly, if climatologists’ predictions are true, this trend is expected to continue into the future. Since, by nature, severe storms are accompanied by high winds, damages due to wind are expected to increase as well.

Vulnerability Summary: Residents of the Town of Lincoln are expected to see an increase in so-called “Freak” storms which are often accompanied by high winds. Because these storms were formerly unusual occurrences, most people in town are unprepared for high winds. Exceptionally high winds found in cyclonic storms would likely result in damage to roofs in town and result in the collapse of some structures. Fortunately, the hills and deep valleys make much of Starksboro basically safe from cyclonic storms (tornados). With a community vulnerability score of 4, high winds would be considered a High-Regional Priority based on a moderate overall impact to the community with a relatively common period of occurrence.

4.3.3 Highway Accidents Location: Most traffic accidents in the last eight years have occurred in the area along West River Road at the intersections with Forge Hill Road and Atkins Road. A significant number have also occurred along East River Road in the village center, and a cluster at the intersection of Forge Hill Road and Quaker Street. The committee map of road accidents was very similar to the crash data mapped by Vermont Agency of Transportation. In addition, the committee noted a number of accidents at the base of VT Route 17/Drake Woods Road and VT Route 116, which is located in the neighboring town of Bristol, but affects most traffic into and out of Lincoln.

Extent: There are no State or Federal highways in Lincoln and most through-traffic moves between Bristol and Warren when the Lincoln Gap Road is open (May through October). Most local traffic is personal vehicles, as well as local delivery trucks, that are well suited for navigating the rural roads of Lincoln and familiar with the roads. However, there are a number of out- of-town visitors, especially during the summer and fall months, that visit the New Haven River for swimming and fishing, or to hike the Long Trail and view fall colors, that can cause crowded road conditions and unpredictable driving.

Previous Occurrences: There have been about 60 automobile crashes in Lincoln since 2011, declining slightly in number per year from the high of 12 per year in 2013 and 2015. Nearly all of the accidents (>40) were single vehicle crashes and resulted only in minor property damage. However, more than a dozen resulted in injuries and there was one fatality in 2018. Several accidents occurred during freezing precipitation or involved alcohol impairment.

Future Probability: The probability of highway accidents from car and truck crashes is expected to continue. It is probable that Lincoln will continue to see the same or increased vehicle traffic through town, increasing the likelihood of serious accidents.

Vulnerability Summary: Despite the limited geographic impacts and low amounts of property damage, community vulnerability should be considered a High-Regional Priority because of the high probability of occurrence, little warning time, and high committee concern. There are no hazardous material reporting sites in Lincoln and the most commonly transported hazardous material in town are local delivery trucks bringing fuel and propane to heat residents’ homes. Generally, these vehicles carry limited amounts of product. While the likelihood of a Hazardous Materials transportation incident is low, an accident in the village center or into the New Haven River could potentially affect a large proportion of town residents and businesses. Given the limited number of through routes, a single accident could potentially cut-off most of the town from emergency services.

4.3.4 Flood/Flash Flood Location: Flash flooding is a frequent occurrence in the Town of Lincoln. As a mountainous community, most of the town’s infrastructure of roads and bridges lie within river valleys. Areas of particular concern identified by the Lincoln hazard mitigation committee are along the New Haven River on West and East River Road, which is the primary access through town. The river dependably rises following significant rain events.

Extent: Based on the results of overlaying the flood insurance rate maps (FIRMs) with the location of the E911 points, there are an estimated 41 E-911 structures located within the mapped FIRM. There are 92 structures or portions of structures located within the state’s designated river corridors. Buildings at greatest risk of flooding from the New Haven River are primarily located within the village by East and West River Road near the main intersection with Quaker Village Road and Cove Hill Road. These include 2 public facilities (Fire Station and Burnham Hall), 3 commercial facilities, 1 industrial facility, 2 places of public lodging and 44 residential units in town that are vulnerable to potential flooding. Other areas of potential loss would include damage to the infrastructure and private property along South Lincoln Road, Beaver Brook due to erosion and basement flooding

The estimated total loss for destruction of all private properties in the river corridors ranges from $5,300,000 to $7,500,000. This is over 15% of the town’s grand list value. The fire station is an essential facility and Burnham Hall is a public gathering place. In addition to these, 2 locations are categorized as places of lodging, 3 are commercial sites and 4 are mobile homes.

Previous Occurrences1: In 1998, heavy rains caused the New Haven River to flood catastrophically, inundating the basement of Burnham Hall which at the time housed the Lincoln Library. The Town Fire Station was an island within the flood waters for a time and roads were washed out throughout town. During this event (DR1228), over $1.5 million in damages was incurred and several homes were evacuated never to be lived in again. Two years later (DR 1336), another summer storm dropped several inches of rain on the New Haven and Middlebury River watersheds causing another $109,000 in damages. Remnants of a Nor’easter storm in October 2019 washed out a bridge on Grimes Road and caused road closures on Grimes and Cobb Hill Roads.

Future Probability: Severe rainstorms are often accompanied by rapid river rise and flooding in Lincoln. Predicted climate changes include higher frequency and severity of rainstorms into the future. The town of Lincoln has and will continue to take actions to mitigate predicted future conditions.

Vulnerability Summary: The location of the Town of Lincoln makes it extremely vulnerable to flash flooding. With the primary town route (River Road) located along the banks of the New Haven River the vulnerability of the road and a few private residences located in the river corridor to flash flooding is high. Fortunately, the town has recognized this vulnerability. Within the past 15 years the town has taken a number of steps to minimize the effects of flash flooding, especially to town road and bridge infrastructure, as well as the town’s community center, Burnham Hall, located 10 feet from the New Haven River. After the flood of 1998, the Town obtained approximately $425,000 of pre-disaster grant assistance to do flood protection upgrades to the building. This included installation of an “Invisible Flood Control Wall” of aluminum planks that “stack” on top of a permanent sill plate, an alternative to concrete levees and sandbagging. When Hurricane Irene flooded the New Haven River, the system held tight against nearly 4 feet of water. Since Hurricane Irene, additional efforts have been directed toward renovation and improvement of Burnham Hall, including repairing the roof, and refurbishing and floodproofing the lower floor.

1 For historical footage, see, Youtube video: “Burnham Hall, Lincoln Vt. Hurricane Irene Aug. 28th 2011”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLoTxlQZPa8 and Youtube video: “Lincoln and Bristol Flood of 1998” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWBkjzpbi5I

Burnham Hall floodproofing during Hurricane Irene flooding in Lincoln, VT Since the desirability of a “home on the water” is quite high, pressure to develop additional lands along rivers and floodplains is increasing. Limitations for development in floodplains alone may not sufficiently address the hazards associated with proximity to the river and further limitations that address erosion and flash flood hazards should be considered. While transportation through the town center is still potentially vulnerable to flash floods, the community continues to lessen that vulnerability through mitigation actions.

4.3.5 Extreme Temperatures (Heat and Cold)

Location: Extreme temperatures usually occur across the entire region, though the committee identified some areas that frequently experience colder local temperatures.

Extent: From 1895 to 2015, the average annual temperature in Vermont increased by 2.6°F (or 0.2°F per decade). the northeast region of the country is the fastest-warming area of the contiguous United States and is warming at a rate 50% greater than the global average. The most significant warming in this region will occur during the winter months, where average temperatures are projected to increase by 4°F, while the increase in summer months will be less severe, at 2°F, but still considered a significant rise.

Previous Occurrences: The National Weather Service categorizes a hot day when temperatures reach 90 degrees or warmer. In the North Country, we average between 6 and 10 such days a year, with some years witnessing more than 20 days. An "official" heat wave is defined as three or more consecutive days with the temperature reaching or exceeding 90 degrees. In 2013, 9 days of 90 degree or warmer temperatures were observed in Burlington and a 5-day heat wave from July 15 temperatures approaching 100 degrees. March 8-9, 2000 is the only excessive heat event for Vermont on NOAA’s records. Other heat events since 2000 include August 1-2, 2006, July 21, 2011 and March 17, 2012.

Between 2000 and 2017, the number of recorded days per year with a daily temperature high greater than or equal to 85°F peaked during the 2016 summer at 45 days, closely followed by the summer of 2015 at 41 days in Burlington. July 2018 was the hottest month ever recorded in Burlington, Vermont, and set a new record, 21 days, for most days above 85 degrees. according to records from the local office of the National Weather Service.

NOAA storm event history for Vermont also includes several extreme cold/wind chill events since 2000, none of which included any deaths, injuries, or recorded damages. Most of these events occurred in January, February, and March.

Future Probability: Average temperatures in Vermont are projected to continue increasing, along with more frequent extremes of both heat and cold.

Extreme heat is less likely than other regions in the country, but heat-related events are beginning to occur in much greater frequency and are expected to continue.

Polar vortexes, which result from areas of low pressure and cold air moving down from the poles due to weakening of jet stream patterns, are expected to increase in frequency. These produce extreme cold conditions which have the potential to remain over the region for extended periods.

Vulnerability Summary:

The primary impact of extreme heat or prolonged periods of hot weather is to human life. Hot conditions, especially when combined with sun and high humidity, can limit the body’s ability to thermoregulate properly. Prolonged exposure to hot conditions can lead to heat cramps, heat exhaustion, heat stroke, or exacerbate other pre-existing medical conditions. Some of these impacts require medical attention and can be fatal if left untreated. The Heat Vulnerability in Vermont report suggests that Vermonters are at a greater risk for serious, heat- related illness– potentially even death– when the statewide average temperature reaches or exceeds 87°F. In general, those at higher risk during hot weather include older adults and children, people with chronic medical conditions, people active outdoors, people without air conditioning, and people living in more urbanized parts

33 of Vermont. A specific demographic that is potentially more vulnerable to extreme heat is Vermonters over the age of 65. In 2016, 17% of the state population was in this group based on estimates from the U.S. Census. Historically, relatively high rates of heat illnesses have been experienced in some of the cooler counties in Vermont, which may be a result of underlying population vulnerabilities (e.g. an older population with more pre-existing health conditions) or a lack of acclimation to hotter conditions. Extreme heat and prolonged periods of hot weather, as well as significant, projected increases in average annual temperature, also have direct and indirect effects on other hazards, including Drought, Wildfire, Invasive Species, Infectious Disease.

Despite rising temperature averages, Vermont remains vulnerable to extreme cold temperatures and periods of prolonged cold temperatures. The average number of annual cold-related deaths (i.e. deaths caused by exposure to cold air or water temperatures) between 2008 and 2015 was 2.75 persons. Significant extreme cold events will continue to be likely, with the most significant impacts felt by individuals, followed by the direct and indirect impacts to the environment and the economy. Because extreme cold temperatures often occur in tandem with winter storms or lead to ice jam flooding, residents who lose power during Vermont’s coldest months need warm shelters where they can be protected from harsh conditions and reduce the potential for health- related impacts of exposure to cold temperatures, such as hypothermia or frostbite. Warmer winters also pose challenges in Vermont. During these more frequent, warmer winters, snow, which acts as a protective, insulating layer between the cold air and the ground, is more likely to melt. When seasonable, cold air moves back into the region after prolonged exposure to above-freezing temperatures that have melted much of the snow coverage, the exposed ground experiences deeper soil frost, which can negatively impact road infrastructure (i.e. frost heaves), water lines (i.e. burst pipes from water-ice expansion) and perennial crops that rely on the snow for protection from cold temperatures and winds. In addition to exposed soil, Vermont’s rivers and lakes are also impacted from fluctuating periods of warmth and extreme cold. The continued freeze-melt-freeze cycle on rivers leads to increased ice accumulation, which can then be broken into large sheets of mobile ice during the next period of warming. This phenomenon is called ice jamming, which often results in flooding.

Hazard assessments from Lincoln’s previous (2012) hazard mitigation plan The following hazards were included in the 2012 mitigation plan, but did not rank among the 2019 committee’s most vulnerable and were therefore not profiled. Risk/vulnerability information was from the last assessment and has changed.

• Drought – Local knowledge indicates dry spells are periodic in nature and would be considered severe about every 10 years on the average. Generally, risks associated with these droughts include drying up of shallow wells and reduced productivity of agricultural crops. An extended drought period in the 1960s saw the development of several community- owned water systems in communities along Lake Champlain. Similar conditions could result in new calls for a public water supply in communities like Lincoln. Most recently a dry period in 2000 saw a few residents without water for several weeks which was finally relieved by fall rains. Direct costs of drought conditions tend to be borne by individual residents and therefore are difficult to track accurately. No direct costs to the towns have been recorded in the past 25 years.

• Widespread Power Failure – Based on local knowledge, widespread power outages are a common yet low impact event throughout the Town of Lincoln. Possible during all seasons of the year, the lack of power becomes particularly an issue during winter as it often translates into lack of heat as well. Many private residences have back-up power sources and essential Town facilities like the fire station, Lincoln Community School, and Town Offices have been retrofitted in recent years. Widespread outages have been common through much of the past 50 years with limited overall impact to the community. However, extended outages during winter months coupled with extreme cold have periodically resulted in more extensive damage associated with freezing pipes particularly in private residences. In 1998 a severe ice storm (DR 1201) hit much of northern Vermont and the Town of Lincoln was not spared. Microclimate differences allowed for bands of ice and non-ice related to elevation changes yet the community still suffered over $24,000 in damages due to the storm. Subsequent mitigation activities by CVPS has re-routed many of those remote lines onto town highway rights of way and an increased pruning effort has reduced the impact of a similar event would it happen today.

• Landslide/Erosion Hazard – Due to historic patterns of development, landslide/erosion issues are generally limited to erosive actions of high water on riverbanks in town. Historic settlements along the New Haven River are most at risk for erosion associated with river channel movements. Historically, industrial structures like sawmills and gristmills were built close to the banks of the river to take advantage of water power. Large water events would have great impact to these local industries as flood waters would erode riverbanks and damage footings for buildings located too close to the bank. Fortunately, local industry like this has foundered over the past 100 years and when damaged, has not been rebuilt.

Much of the undeveloped erosion susceptible property along the river and its floodplain is currently in agricultural use and is not currently at risk. However, future development along the river is still possible due to the limited protection provided by basic NFIP requirements adopted by Lincoln. Unfortunately, the properties that have been developed over the past 200 years continue to be at risk and unless moved out of harm’s way, will always represent a high risk to the residents of Lincoln. Among infrastructure at risk are bridges at the York Hill Road and Gove Hill Road intersections which are at risk both from flood waters and from migration of the river channel. Several locations along West River Road, East River Road and South Lincoln Road where the river bank has been extensively armored in an attempt to stabilize unstable reaches of the river are at risk to additional channel migration. The recently flood-proofed Burnham Hall and the fire station by virtue of their location next to an unstable river will continue to be at risk. Phase 2 Stream Geomorphic Assessments conducted in 2004 show evidence of extensive channelization, bank armoring and gravel extraction that have been historically used to attempt to control the river. Current wisdom indicates that these attempts to control the river are temporary at best and tend to provide a false sense of security to those who would develop in these “protected” areas. In the worst case, these same measures tend to destabilize the river so that its energy is then diverted to other unprotected locations further downstream causing an increased risk there.

• Lightning – Severe storms which include lightning along with wind and rain events are a common occurrence in Lincoln during summer months. Lightning strikes routinely cause fires to trees along ridge tops and less commonly start fires in structures. Fires associated with lightning strikes to inhabited buildings occur fewer than once every five years on average. More common is loss of power and damage to electronic equipment in homes where there has been a proximity strike. Anecdotally, there are multiple reports each year of electronic equipment unprotected by surge suppressors which are damaged by lightning strikes. Generally, these homeowners file insurance claims for damages and total annual damages in the entire community likely do not exceed $10,000.

• Structure Fire – Responses by the fire department for structure fires have averaged less than 5 over the past few years. A well trained and equipped local volunteer fire department helps reduce risks to life and loss of property. Recent mitigation actions by the fire department have improved the overall outlook for fire risk over the coming years. The installation of dry hydrants at water supply locations has increased the availability of and speed in which water can be accessed for firefighting purposes. In many ways new development has not had a huge impact on fire risk due to improved construction methods. State codes for commercial construction have fire protection embedded within the standards. Unfortunately, risks to firefighters continue to escalate as newer construction materials often produce a dangerous combination of gasses when burned. In other ways, like most communities with large forested areas, the urban/wildfire interface is becoming a problem as more and more new homes are constructed in forested areas without proper consideration for fire protection zones around them.

• Wildfire – Roughly 40% of the Town of Lincoln is owned by the US Forest Service and of the remaining private holdings, approximately 50% are forested. These circumstances generally put all structures in the town within an urban/wildfire interface. This increased risk for forest fire due to proximity is moderated by the so-called “Teflon Forest” conditions of the Northeastern US. While moisture levels generally tend to be higher than in the fire-plagued western forests, scattered periods of drought can increase fire danger levels to Extreme particularly during spring and fall seasons when dry leaves cover much of the forest floor. Within the past 50 years, forests have been closed to recreation state-wide 3 times due to extreme fire conditions. While these incidents have not resulted in large-scale damage in the Town of Lincoln, the conditions existed for widespread forest fires. Increased development within the urban/wildfire interface continues throughout the state and Lincoln has not escaped that trend. When coupled with forest management trends toward hands off management within National Forest lands, it becomes increasingly important that residences and essential facilities be constructed with an eye toward wildfire resistance.

• Earthquake – Surprising as it is to some, Vermont is classified as an area with “moderate" seismic activity. This can be compared to the west coast of the U.S., which is classified as “very high" and the north-central states classified as 'very low." Sixty-three known or possible earthquakes have been centered in Vermont since 1843 (Ebel et al. 1995). The two strongest recorded quakes measured in Vermont were of a magnitude 4.1 on the Richter scale. One was centered in Swanton and occurred on July 6, 1943, and the second occurred in 1962 in nearby Middlebury. The Swanton quake caused little damage, but the Middlebury quake did result in broken windows, cracked plaster and falling objects (VEM, 1995). Earthquakes centered outside the state have also occasionally been felt in Vermont. Twin quakes of 5.5 occurred in New Hampshire in 1940. In 1988, an earthquake with a magnitude 6.2 on the Richter scale took place in Saguenay, Quebec and caused shaking in the northern two thirds of Vermont (Ebel et al. 1995). In May 2001 and again in the summer of 2010, earthquakes in the 5.0-5.5 range have been felt in Lincoln with epicenters in New York and Quebec respectively. Based on information provided by the Vermont Geological Survey, Department of Environmental Conservation, Agency of Natural Resources, HAZUS outputs for the region are summarized as follows: The Middlebury Once-in-500-year earthquake (5.7 magnitude) could cause significant damage in Addison County. The Goodnow, NY Once-in-500-year earthquake (6.6 magnitude) could cause shaking just above the lower limit for building damage. The Montreal, Quebec (6.8 magnitude) and the Tamworth, NH (6.2 magnitude) Once-in-500- year earthquakes probably would not cause damage in Addison County.

• Dam Failure – The Town of Lincoln is home to one dam which was identified in the 2008 State DEC Dam survey. This is a relatively small structure whose failure would result in extremely limited flooding should it fail at any time. 37

5. Mitigation Strategies

5.1 Hazard Mitigation Goals

Each hazard type profiled in Section 4.3 “Community Risk Assessment” can be mitigated dependent on the willingness to do so at the local, state or federal level. For example, the mitigation of flood damage is basically a simple fix- don’t allow anything in the floodplain that can’t afford to be lost and when it is lost, don’t replace it. This would include all forms of infrastructure whether it be homes, highways, dams or croplands. Unfortunately, political will can rarely stand up to the simplicity of this mitigation concept. The Town of Lincoln has identified that its goals for hazard mitigation are to reduce and/or avoid all long and short-term vulnerabilities to the hazards identified in section 4.3. In doing so, it also recognizes that political will and lack of funding stand in the way of many mitigation projects. The town particularly supports local residents’ efforts to mitigate their personal risks. The Town also supports projects that lead to a positive benefit vs. cost evaluation and which the voters can afford.

Identified Hazard Primary Mitigation Goal

Ice Storm Minimize power outages due to ice storms by pruning and removing trees, moving transmission lines underground. Ensure that essential services can function during disaster and reduce overall vulnerability to this hazard.

High Winds Reduce overall vulnerability of residents and property by removing dead and dying trees within town rights-of-way and other public properties.

Highway Accident Ensure that highway improvements result in safer conditions.

Extreme Temperatures Reduce resident’s exposures to the hazard and ensure that residents have understanding and the ability to protect themselves.

5.2 Authorities of Town Officials

Selectboard: The Selectboard is responsible for the basic administration of the town. They take care of roads, make appointments to other boards and commissions, and authorize expenditures of voted budgets. The Selectboard may enact ordinances and rules in many areas including traffic regulation, regulating nuisances, managing solid waste, dogs and recreation. Town Clerk: The Town Clerk is responsible for the day-to-day workings of the town. As designated coordinator of town departments a town clerk ensures Selectboard policies and decisions are executed in a timely manner. They work with all departments in a town. Planning Commission: The Planning Commission is responsible for long range planning in a town particularly as it relates to future land uses and resilience. They prepare a municipal plan and zoning bylaws which are adopted by the Selectboard. Planning Commission members are elected town officials in Bristol. Zoning Administrator: The Zoning Administrator (ZA) is appointed by the town’s Selectboard with consideration given to the recommendation of the planning commission. Their responsibilities include administration and enforcement of a town’s zoning bylaws, The ZA and usually also serve as the administrator of town floodplain regulations. Tree Warden: The Town Tree Warden is responsible for the shade and ornamental trees within the town rights-of-way. They oversee tree health and removal when necessary. The tree warden is appointed by the Selectboard. Fire Warden: The Town Forest Fire Warden has the responsibility for suppression of wildland fires, regulating open burning in the town by issuing burn permits, and wildfire education/prevention. The Town Fire Warden is appointed by the state Commissioner of Forests, Parks and Recreation with approval by the town’s Selectboard. Health Officer: The Town Health Officer is the executive officer of the local Board of Health. A local board of health may make and enforce rules and regulations…relating to the prevention, removal, or destruction of public health hazards and the mitigation of public health risks. The Town Health Officer is appointed by the Commissioner of Health with approval by the local Selectboard. They take direction from the state Department of Health in investigation and enforcement of public health issues. Emergency Management Coordinator (EMC): By default, a town’s Selectboard chair is the town’s emergency management director (EMD) unless one is appointed. Many communities retain the authorities of an EMD within the Selectboard and appoint an emergency management coordinator (EMC) instead. The EMC is responsible for the organization, administration and operation of the local emergency management organization. EMCs prepare local emergency operations plans, coordinate a local emergency management group and perform emergency management functions at the local level.

5.3 Ongoing Strategies by Hazard Type

Ice/Winter Storm Mitigation activities by power companies have re-routed many of the remote lines along town highways since the 1998 ice storm and an increased pruning effort has reduced the impact of a similar event would it happen today. The Town of Lincoln generally mitigates its winter storm risk through its contracted highway maintenance. The periodic cutting of brush along town highways mitigates the effects of large winter storm events by reducing their ability to act as snow fence dropping windblown snow into the town highway system. High Winds Residents of the Town generally do not recognize high wind as a hazard which can be mitigated with the exception of the effects discussed under widespread power failure. Newly constructed buildings may have tie downs between roof and side walls but no building codes exist within the community that require construction to any particular standard. Where high wind hazards have been recognized, it is usually a function of damage that might be caused if a tree were to be blown over and its effect on a residents’ home. For this reason, some trees are removed from the landscape to reduce the vulnerability to high wind events. The Town of Lincoln supports removal of dead and hazardous trees in the town rights-of-way to mitigate the hazards associated with their falling either on town highways or on power lines. Hazardous Materials and Highway Transport Accidents Representatives from the Town of Lincoln are active members of the Local Emergency Planning Committee in planning for hazardous materials incidents. The Town mitigates risk to local responders by reporting its Tier II facilities as required at both the state and local levels. A representative from the town sits on the local Transportation Advisory Committee, a regional group whose purpose is to prioritize potential transportation related projects within the region. This group rates High Accident Locations (HAL) highly in prioritizing projects to mitigate the risks associated with these locations by changing alignments, added signage and reduced speeds. Extreme Temperatures The town of Lincoln has recognized increasing incidents of extreme heat and cold temperatures and worked to increase home weatherization and provide outreach activities to vulnerable populations. There are community programs to provide firewood for households in need through a community wood bank run through the united Church of Lincoln.

Flood/Flash Flood

Nearly all of the floodplain in Lincoln lies immediately adjacent to the New Haven River. The Town is a member in good standing of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). There are no official “Repetitive Loss” properties located in Lincoln, though homes along the river in the Village have experienced damage more than once. 6 flood insurance policies are in effect for residences in the town and are insured, in total, for just over $1,000,000. Because the threat to homes and infrastructure along the river is high, the Town of Lincoln adopted a Fluvial Erosion Hazard Zoning Bylaws in March of 2011 that serve to limit unrestricted development along identified erosion hazard zones, as well as a River Overlay Area that limits development along all streams. The Town of Lincoln adopted road and bridge standards in 2014. This document addresses road and bridge construction standards designed to mitigate local traffic issues and are particularly designed to mitigate potential damages due to flooding and flash flooding. The standards address culvert sizing, ditch treatments and driveway access to reduce flood caused erosion. The town completed a town-wide Road and Culvert Inventory in 2015 with the help of a Category-A Vermont Better Backroads Planning Grant.

The Town of Lincoln supports continued compliance with the NFIP and would support Community Rating System (CRS) improvements where the benefits to the town’s residents would outweigh the costs of additional administration and compliance.

Drought Most homeowners with shallow wells have learned to live with the inconvenience of dry spells by purchasing bottled water and using public toilets and laundries for the short periods they would be without a dependable water supply. When the inconvenience has become too much, many of these homeowners have mitigated the problem by drilling deep wells. Increasingly, home mortgages are requiring a dependable deep well water supply as a condition of a loan. In the past ten years, the fire department has been installing dry hydrants in deep water ponds and streams to make access easier funded, in part from USDA rural assistance grants. As housing continues to expand into rural areas, the potential lack of a dependable water supply for fighting fire is becoming an issue. It may be necessary for future subdivisions to provide fire ponds as part of their impact assessment as this trend continues.

Widespread Power Failure Many private residences have back-up power sources and essential Town facilities like the fire station and elementary school have been retrofitted in recent years. As population growth and housing expands along remote road corridors, increasing reliance on dependable power by the new homeowners requires changes in line maintenance. Green Mountain Power (GMP), the utility servicing the Town of Lincoln, has an ongoing program of line clearing and relocation to ensure outages are kept to a minimum. Recent improvements to the transmission system in northwest Vermont have provided redundant systems to bring electric power to the region. The Town of Lincoln supports development of a robust and redundant local electric generation and transmission system for its residents. This support is limited to that which can prove that the benefit to local residents outweighs the societal costs associated with industrial generation and transmission degradation of the local landscape. The recently adopted town plan specifically promotes alternative generation of electricity which can mitigate some of the risk associated with the delivery of electricity over long distances

Landslide/Erosion Hazard Unfortunately, the relatively short lives (compared to geologic time) of property owners lead them toward the belief that the river has always been stable and that it is poor management that causes channel migration rather than the unstoppable forces of nature. Fortunately, in Lincoln, the town’s planning commission and Selectboard have seen erosive hazards associated with riverbank instability up close in the village area and have acted to mitigate these hazards. To prevent future losses of property, roads, buildings, and lives, an erosion hazard zone bylaw was developed that recognizes the dynamic nature of the river. In 2011, the town of Lincoln adopted Fluvial Erosion Hazard regulations into its zoning bylaws to limit growth in those areas identified as at risk to erosion/landslide hazard. As mentioned above under flooding activity, the Town planning commission is currently (2019) in the process of updating its zoning bylaws and including additional language to bring the existing regulations to the current state standards. Lightning The town has mitigated potential damage to Town-owned structures due to lightning strike by installing lightning rods to channel the electrical energy directly to ground rather than through the structure’s electrical system. Most of the larger, privately owned, structures in vulnerable locations have similarly installed lightning rod systems to protect them from lightning strike with the encouragement from insurance companies and extension agents. The Town has no adopted building standards which would require this action but feels the risk to private residences should be borne by each resident on their own.

Structure Fire Overall mitigation actions by the Lincoln fire department have improved the overall outlook for fire risk over the coming years. An active fire prevention/education program at the elementary school level also limits future fire risks. In addition, the installation of dry hydrants at water supply locations has increased the availability of and speed in which water can be accessed for firefighting purposes. Retrofitting of structures with basic sprinkler systems will greatly assist the fire departments should the need arise. The town is planning to consider mandatory access for emergency vehicles to all new homes in the next zoning bylaws revision. Actions identified under the Drought hazard would also mitigate structure fire and wildfire risk in future developments.

Wildfire Increased development within the urban/wildfire interface continues throughout the state and Lincoln has not escaped that trend. When coupled with forest management trends toward hands off management within National Forest lands, it becomes increasingly important that residences and essential facilities be constructed with an eye toward wildfire resistance. The town has no guidelines for home construction in place that would limit the risk to wildfire in Lincoln. A vigilant forest fire warden limits the setting of uncontrolled outdoor fires and should result in an overall limited risk. In addition, fire ponds required as an impact assessment should mitigate fire risk in future developments.

Earthquake Despite the probability of an earthquake within the next 50 years, most town residents do not attempt to mitigate its hazard. The Town of Lincoln has also not identified earthquake as a hazard it feels is imminent enough to justify much in the way of mitigation actions. It is generally felt that the cost of earthquake mitigation when compared to the probability of an occurrence

Dam Failure The Town of Lincoln does not generally address dam failure mitigation in its day-to-day activities leaving the protection of the public up to State dam safety inspectors. The Town Planning Commission, however, has written pond construction standards into its zoning regulations. The intent of such standards is to limit the volume of water stored in a man- made impoundment, ensure an adequate design in its construction and therefore limit risk.

5.4 Project Prioritization Process

Projects and actions included in Section 5.5 are conducted by the Town of Lincoln or regional and State agencies where noted. The Town encourages its residents to adopt mitigation actions which could protect their personal property by making educational materials available to residents. Many of these potential actions are contained in Annex C as mitigation measures for individuals. Mitigation actions identified in Section 3.3, however, are considered the jurisdiction’s priority mitigation actions. These projects continue the community’s dedication to mitigation and since projects have been completed in the past 7 years, new ones reflecting the same priorities have been added.

The Town has established the following priorities for choosing mitigation projects: Life safety and the safety of its residents, keeping local roads and bridges open to ensure access for emergency vehicles, and protecting critical infrastructure facilities in the town. These actions/projects are constantly evaluated for benefit to the community, estimated project cost and political will to implement and will be implemented as those factors indicate. The actions identified in Section 5.4 under each hazard have passed a preliminary evaluation utilizing those general concepts by the hazard mitigation committee and are listed in their order of priority. Before undertaking these projects, they will additionally be prioritized based on their feasibility and a benefit vs. cost review. A minimum C/B result of 1.0 will be required prior to any request for federal mitigation funds. Annex D identifies only some of the available programs which can help to fund some of these actions/projects. All projects in section 3.3 will be reviewed for progress following any local disaster declaration and will be considered annually as part of overall town budgeting.

5.5 Proposed Mitigation Actions by Hazard Type

In developing the following list of proposed mitigation actions and projects, care was taken to include only those projects which could be considered reasonable and feasible based primarily on cost and political willingness. Ice/Winter Storm

The Town supports ongoing efforts by power companies (Green Mountain Power) to mitigate power outages due to ice storms by pruning and removing damaged trees in and siting utility lines in accordance with the town plan’s goal of protecting Tree Canopy Roads. No local action necessary-cost $0

The Town of Lincoln supports actions of the Burnham Hall Committee to acquire and install a back-up power supply for the facility to ensure sump pump operation under all conditions. Estimated Cost: $10,000 Source of funds: HMGP, Town general fund, private fundraising Responsibility: Burnham Hall Committee, Selectboard Timeframe: 2020-2025 as funding permits

Increase power backup capacity for fire station Estimated cost to Town: $15000 Source of funds: Town general fund, state Hazard mitigation grant program (HMGP) Responsibility: Town Selectboard Timeframe: 2020-2023

Move and/or upgrade weather resistance of phone and internet switch stations, upgrade power backup capacity cell station, and cell towers Estimated cost to Town: $0 Source of funds: Town general fund, state Hazard mitigation grant program (HMGP) Responsibility: Phone and Internet Companies Timeframe: 2020-2022

High Winds The town supports limiting damages due to high winds by removing dead and dying trees within the town right-of-way that could fall during a high wind event. Note that the 2017 town plan advocates protection of road “canopies” from intentional or inadvertent damage or destruction by repair or replacement of utility lines, and the underground installation Estimated cost: $5,000 annual cost Source of funds: Town highway budget. Responsibility: Joint Town Highway Dept and Selectboard Timeframe: ongoing annual efforts

Require installation of “hurricane clips” on all new mobile home installations. Estimated cost to Town: $0 annual cost Source of funds: Town general funds or Municipal Planning Grants Responsibility: Town Selectboard, Planning Commission, Individual Homeowners Timeframe: 2020-2022

Hazardous Materials and Highway Transport Accidents The Town has identified the following high-risk locations on its highway system and supports mitigation of the hazard in any future construction/reconstruction activities:

Request Evaluation of hazardous road locations through the Systemic Local Road Safety Program (SLRS) Estimated cost to Town: $500.00 (road commissioner’s salary expenses) Source of funds: Town highway budget Responsibility: Joint Road Commissioner and Selectboard Timeframe: 2020-2021

Installation of speed reduction signage and reflective arrows where needed to reduce accidents. Estimated cost to Town: $1,000- $2,000 Source of funds: Town highway funds Responsibility: Town Selectboard, road crew Timeframe: 2020-2023

Installation of guardrails on dangerous curves and drop-offs Estimated Costs: $5,000 annually Source of funds: Better Back Roads, Town Highway Funds Responsibility: Town Selectboard, Road Crew Timeframe: Ongoing 2020-2025

Evaluation and possible realignments of Bridge #19 and York Hill Road Bridge Estimated Costs: $100,000 Source of Funds: Local Highway/bridge funds, Responsibility: Town Selectboard, Highway Crew Timeframe: 2020-2025 (Deferred, needs funding)

Encourage conversion to efficient, alternate heating sources to reduce overall transport of petroleum fuels. Estimated cost to Town: Minimal as part of a Town Plan Energy Section Source of funds: Town General Fund, Municipal Planning Grants Responsibility: Town Selectboard & Planning Commission Timeframe: 2020-2025

Extreme Temperatures Set up Burnham Hall as shelter with food and activities, acquire cots from Red Cross Estimated Costs: $500, annual maintenance Source of funds: HMGP, Town general fund, private fundraising Responsibility: Burnham Hall Committee, Selectboard Timeframe: 2020-2023 as funding permits

Initiate outreach activities to identify vulnerable populations and a “check your neighbor” program Estimated Costs to town: Minimal Source of funds: HMGP, Town general fund, private fundraising Responsibility: Burnham Hall Committee, Selectboard Timeframe: 2020-2023 as funding permits

Flood/Flash Flood The Town supports continued enrollment in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) to allow residents the option of purchasing flood insurance on their properties. As a part of continued compliance, the Town supports participation in NFIP training for the Zoning Administrator when offered by the State or NFIP. Estimated cost: $200-$300 Source of Funds: Town General Fund Planning and Zoning budget Responsibility: Town Zoning Administrator Timeframe: Yearly ongoing

Upgrade road drainage and ditching to new standards on: o Gove Road o York Hill Road o French Settlement Estimated cost: Approximately $10/linear foot Source of funds: Town highway funds, Better Backroads program. Responsibility: Selectboard, Road Commissioner Timeframe: 2020-2025

The following specific projects have been identified which will serve to mitigate the effects of flooding and/or flash flooding in the Town of Lincoln: Explore long term solutions to flood mitigation in the village area. Estimated cost: 10,000 - $15,000 Source of Funds: Town general fund, PDM Planning funds, State ERF Responsibility: Town Selectboard Timeframe: 2020-2025

Professional engineering study of Road Alignment of South Lincoln Road Estimated Costs: $15,000 Source of funds: Better Back Roads, Town Highway Funds Responsibility: Town Selectboard, Road Crew Timeframe: Ongoing 2020-2025

Culvert replacement and realignment of Hall Road Estimated Costs: $100,000 Source of Funds: Local Highway/bridge funds, Responsibility: Town Selectboard, Highway Crew Timeframe: 2020-4 years (Deferred, needs funding)

Landslide/Erosion Hazard The Town supports implementation of a Riverine Habitat and Erosion Hazard Overlay district. Estimated cost: negligible as part of normal zoning administration Source of funds: Town general fund. Responsibility: Town Zoning Administrator Timeframe: 2020-2025 47

5.6 Mitigation activities undertaken since the original plan adoption in 2012

Flood/Flash Flood

• Renovate ditching on Elder Hill Road Completed

• Ditching and Culvert improvements on French Settlement Rd. Completed

• Ditching and Culvert improvements on Ripton Rd. Completed

• Ditching and Culvert improvements Lincoln/Ripton Rd. Completed

• Ditching and Culvert improvements Lower part of Colby Hill Road Completed

• New culverts and ditching along Quaker Street- Completed

6. Plan Maintenance Procedure

6.1 Plan Review/Update Process Any Hazard Mitigation Plan is dynamic and should not be static. To ensure that the plan remains current and relevant, it is important that it be updated periodically. The plan will be updated at a minimum, every five years in accordance with the following procedure: 1. The Lincoln Selectboard assembles a Review/Update Committee to include government officials and interested public. 2. The Committee will discuss the process to determine if any modifications or additions are needed due to changing conditions since the last update occurred. Data needs will be reviewed, data sources identified and responsibility for collecting/updating information will be assigned to members. 3. Other Town plans (Emergency Operations Plan, Town Plan, Road Plan, etc.) will be reviewed to ensure a common mitigation thread still exists throughout. 4. A draft update will be prepared based on these evaluation criteria: ▪ Changes in community and government processes, which are hazard-related and have occurred since the last review. ▪ Progress in implementation of plan initiatives and projects. ▪ Effectiveness of previously implemented initiatives and projects. ▪ Evaluation of unanticipated challenges or opportunities that may have occurred between the date of adoption and the date of the report. ▪ Evaluation of hazard-related public policies, initiatives and projects. ▪ Review and discussion of the effectiveness of public and private sector coordination and cooperation. 5. The public will be invited to review and give input on drafts as they are produced. 6. Selectboard members will have an opportunity to review the draft update. Consensus will be reached on any changes to the draft. 7. The Selectboard will notify and schedule a public meeting to ensure adequate public input. 8. The Selectboard will recommend incorporation of community comments into the draft update.

6.2 Programs Initiatives and Projects Reviews

Should a declared disaster occur, a special review will occur in accordance with the following procedures: 1. Within six (6) months of a declared emergency event, the Town will initiate a post disaster review and assessment. 2. This post disaster review and assessment will document the facts of the event and assess whether existing Hazard Mitigation Plans effectively addressed the hazard. 3. A report of the review and assessment will be created by a Review/Update Committee. 4. The committee will make a determination whether the plan needs to be amended. If the committee determines that NO modification of the plan is needed, then the report is distributed. 5. If the committee determines that modification of the plan IS needed, then the committee drafts an amended plan based on its recommendations and forwards to the Selectboard for public input. 6. Following completion of a public input process, further amendments may be made and a final plan delivered to the Selectboard for adoption. 7. The Selectboard adopts the amended plan.

6.3 Post-Disaster Review Procedures

7 Plan Adoption Resolution

TOWN OF LINCOLN, VERMONT SELECTBOARD ADOPTION RESOLUTION

WHEREAS, the Town of Lincoln has occasionally experienced severe damage from natural hazards and it continues to be vulnerable to the effects of the hazards profiled in the Town of Lincoln, Vermont Single Jurisdiction All-Hazards Mitigation Plan (Plan), which can result in loss of property and life, economic hardship, and threats to public health and safety; and

WHEREAS, the Town of Lincoln has developed the Plan and received conditional approval from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA); and

WHEREAS, the Plan identifies specific hazard mitigation strategies, and plan maintenance procedures applicable to the Town of Lincoln; and

WHEREAS, the Plan identifies actions and/or projects intended to provide mitigation for specific natural hazards that impact the Town of Lincoln; and

WHEREAS, adoption of this Plan will make the Town of Lincoln eligible for additional funding to help alleviate the impacts of future hazards;

Now, therefore, be it RESOLVED by Town of Lincoln Selectboard:

1. The Town of Lincoln, Vermont Single Jurisdiction All-Hazards Mitigation Plan is hereby adopted as an official plan of the Town of Lincoln, Vermont;

2. The respective Town officers identified in the action plan are hereby directed to pursue implementation of the recommended actions assigned to them.

3. Support agencies within the Town of Lincoln are also requested to implement actions assigned to them within this plan;

4. Plan maintenance procedures described in Section 6 of this plan are also adopted as part of this resolution

IN WITNESS WHEREOF, the undersigned have affixed their signatures for the Town of Lincoln, this ____ day of _____ 201__.

______Selectboard Chair Selectboard Member Selectboard Member ______Selectboard Member Selectboard Member

ATTEST: ______