9-9:59 P.M. Wyoming Ranked As George W
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14 2008 ELECTION PREVIEW POLITICO TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2008 TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2008 POLITICO 2008 ELECTION PREVIEW 15 Wyoming’s At-Large Seat 9-9:59 P.M. Wyoming ranked as George W. Bush’s top state in 2000 and What is happening his second-best in 2004, but nevertheless, Democratic busi- Fifteen states spanning from the nessman Gary Trauner, who lost narrowly in this district East Coast to the Rocky Mountain in 2006, is running a competitive race against former GOP West close their polls at 9 p.m. state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis. Eastern time. With 158 electoral votes, more than a quarter of all electoral votes are at stake. Texas will be reliably red, and New York, reliably blue; Colorado and New Mexico will be watched closely to see if Barack Obama can crack the Mountain West. Colorado’s 4th District AP PhotoS Republican Rep. Marilyn Wisconsin’s 8th District Musgrave faces another tough challenge this year. After first In a rematch of their tight 2006 con- Arizona’s 1st District capturing the seat in 2002 with 55 test, Democratic Rep. Steve Kagen faces former GOP Assembly Speaker In the sprawling 1st District — one of the largest percent of the vote, she dropped to 51 percent in 2004, followed by John Gard. In this Republican-leaning in the nation, at 59,000 square miles — the GOP is district, Gard might expect to get a pessimistic about its chances of victory. National an anemic 46 percent in 2006, the lowest winning percentage of any boost in a presidential election year, Democrats have spent heavily on behalf of state but the Democratic ticket has paid Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick; Republican Sydney Hay, House candidate that year. Louisiana’s 6th District Rep. Don Cazayoux, who won this Republican-held seat in a May 2008 close attention to Wisconsin, includ- the Arizona Mining Association president, has ing Green Bay. raised little money. special election, was the toast of the Democratic Caucus earlier this year. But he now faces a tougher challenge from Republican state Sen. Bill Cassidy, a task complicated by the presence of a black Democrat, state Rep. Michael Jackson, who is running as an independent. SOUTH DAKOTA RHODE ISLAND WYOMING NORTH DAKOTA WISCONSIN Electoral Votes: 3 2007 Population: 796,214 2004 Results Electoral Votes: 4 2007 Population: 1,057,832 2004 Results Electoral Votes: 3 2007 Population: 522,830 2004 Results Electoral Votes: 3 2007 Population: 639,715 2004 Results Electoral Votes: 10 2007 Population: 5,601,640 2004 Results Other Demographics Other Demographics Other Demographics Other Other 2% Demographics 2% 2% 2% Demographics 1% 88% 81.9% 88.9% Kerry 91.7% 87.3% Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Bush White White White 29% White 35% White 38% 60% 39% 69% 63% 50% 0.6% 1.4% 0.6% 9.3% 4% 8.7% 2.2% 3.2% 59% 0.7% 6.4% 0.5% 3.5% 0.6% 1.2% 0.6% 5.8% 5.6% 3.6% 1.6% 1.9% 49% Black Hispanic Asian Other Black Hispanic Asian Other Black Hispanic Asian Other Black Hispanic Asian Other Black Hispanic Asian Other ARIZONA COLORADO LOUISIANA MICHIGAN MINNESOTA NEW MEXICO New YORK TEXAS KANSAS NeBRASKA Electoral Votes: 10 Electoral Votes: 9 Electoral Votes: 9 Electoral Votes: 17 Electoral Votes: 10 Electoral Votes: 5 Electoral Votes: 31 Electoral Votes: 34 Electoral Votes: 6 Electoral Votes: 5 2007 Population: 6,338,755 2007 Population: 4,861,515 2007 Population: 4,293,204 2007 Population: 10,071,822 2007 Population: 5,197,621 2007 Population: 1,969,915 2007 Population: 19,297,729 2007 Population: 23,904,380 2007 Population: 2,775,997 2007 Population: 1,774,571 Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch In the 1st District, 63.8% Democrats are 74.5% 62.5% 78.6% The Senate race 88.2% Democratic Rep. 44.7% Democrats are near- 62% 52.4% 83.1% 87.3% the GOP has all White heavily favored White White White between GOP White Tom Udall is in White guaranteed to win White White White White but lost hope of 2.9% to pick up the 3.7% 32.3% 14.1% Sen. Norm Cole- 3.4% a commanding 1.7% retiring Rep. Vito J. 14.8% 11.3% 5.6% 3.9% holding retiring Black state’s open Black Black Black man and former Black position to pick Black Fossella’s seat after Black Black Black Black Rep. Rick Renzi’s 25.3% Senate seat. 17.1% 2.4% 3.3% “Saturday Night 2.9% up the seat of 42.1% his drunken-driv- 15.1% 32% 7% 5.5% seat. Democratic Hispanic Rep. Mark Udall Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic Live” funnyman Al Hispanic retiring GOP Sen. Hispanic ing-and-secret-love- Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic state Rep. Ann AP AP AP AP AP 1.7% has led former 2.2% 1.2% 1.8% Franken has been 2.9% Pete V. Domenici. 1% child scandal. Yet 5.5% 2.7% 1.7% 1.3% Kirkpatrick is GOP Rep. Bob Cazayoux Walberg one of the nastiest National Republi- most Democratic Lampson Boyda Terry expected to coast Asian Schaffer in polls Asian Asian Asian in the country. Asian cans have all but Asian opportunities are in Asian Asian Asian Asian to victory against 6.3% throughout the 2.5% Sen. Mary L. 1.5% In the 7th District, 2.2% Republicans have 2.6% written off the 10.5% the upstate region. 2.6% Rep. Nick Lampson 1.6% What’s the matter 2.5% Former Repub- 1.9% conservative Other campaign, and Other Landrieu is the Other freshman GOP Other turned Franken’s Other race. Democrats Other Former congres- Other is one of the most Other with Kansas, Other lican Gov. Mike Other activist Sydney national Repub- only targeted Sen- Rep. Tim Walberg past expletive-filled are also threaten- sional staffer Dan vulnerable Demo- Republicans might Johanns is heav- Hay. Democrats Median Household Median Household Median Household Median Household Median Household Median Household Median Household Median Household Median Household Median Household Income: licans stopped Income: ate Democrat this Income: has received Income: rants and racy Income: ing to pick up two Income: Maffei is favored to Income: cratic incumbents, Income: be asking. Repub- Income: ily favored to Income: are also hoping to spending money election, but she is lots of support comedy bits against House seats that defeat Republican fighting for survival licans have long hold the Senate oust Rep. John B. $47,265 on Schaffer’s $52,015 favored to defeat $39,337 from third-party $47,182 him, while Franken $54,023 have long been $40,629 Dale Sweetland in $51,384 in the conservative $44,922 thought freshman $45,478 seat left vacant $45,474 Shadegg, who did behalf last GOP state Trea- groups, but it may has accused Cole- under Republican retiring Rep. Jim suburban Houston Democratic Rep. by the retirement himself no favors Unemployment: Unemployment: Unemployment: Unemployment: Unemployment: Unemployment: Unemployment: Unemployment: Unemployment: Unemployment: 5.9% 6.1%* week. In the 4th 5.2% 6.1%* surer John Ken- 5.2% 6.1%* not be enough to 6.1%* 8.7% man of being Bush’s 5.9% 6.1%* control. On paper, 4% 6.1%* Walsh’s Syracuse- 5.8% 6.1%* district that Tom 5.1% 6.1%* Nancy Boyda was 4.8% 6.1%* of Republican 3.5% 6.1%* by announcing District, GOP nedy. Landrieu has fend off Demo- lackey. Independent their more promis- based district. Rep. DeLay held for two highly vulnerable, Chuck Hagel. his retirement *National average Rep. Marilyn *National average tagged Kennedy as *National average cratic state Sen. *National average Dean Barkley is *National average ing pickup is in *National average John R. Kuhl is *National average decades. Lampson *National average being one of the *National average So the real *National average earlier this year, 2004 Turnout Rate: Musgrave, 2004 Turnout Rate: “confused” in her 2004 Turnout Rate: Mark Schauer. In 2004 Turnout Rate: polling around 15 2004 Turnout Rate: the Albuquerque- 2004 Turnout Rate: locked in a tough 2004 Turnout Rate: faces Republican 2004 Turnout Rate: surprise winners 2004 Turnout Rate: action is in the 2004 Turnout Rate: only to reverse his who had the ads, a reference to the 9th District, percent. Mean- based 1st District, reelection battle Pete Olson, a of 2006. But she Omaha-based decision 10 days 47.7% lowest winning 61.7% his change in party 58.5% eight-term GOP 64% while, GOP Rep. 73.9% a perennial battle- 54.2% against his 2006 op- 50.7% former staffer to 45.5% has been resilient 58.3% 2nd District, 59.8% later. Democratic Pop. Breakdown percentage of Pop. Breakdown affiliation last Pop. Breakdown Rep. Joseph Pop. Breakdown Michele Bachmann Pop. Breakdown ground district Pop. Breakdown ponent, Eric Massa. Pop. Breakdown Sen. John Cornyn. Pop. Breakdown despite running Pop. Breakdown where Repub- Pop. Breakdown attorney Bob Lord year. Democrats Knollenberg is in made a major gaffe where Republican And Democrats But Democrats a lower-budget lican Rep. Lee has been running any House can- 88.2% didate in 2006, 84.5% will also be fever- 72.7% serious trouble. 74.7% by suggesting that 70.9% Darren White, 75% are pouring money 87.5% have high hopes for 82.5% grass-roots cam- 71.4% Terry is facing 69.7% a well-funded Urban Urban ishly defending Urban Republicans Urban House Democrats Urban the Bernalillo Urban into former NRCC Urban two late-breaking Urban paign, and she has Urban tough opposition Urban campaign capable has moder- 11.8% ated her socially 15.5% Rep.