14 2008 Election Preview politico Tuesday, november 4, 2008 Tuesday, november 4, 2008 politico 2008 Election Preview 15

Wyoming’s At-Large Seat 9-9:59 p.m. Wyoming ranked as George W. Bush’s top state in 2000 and What is happening his second-best in 2004, but nevertheless, Democratic busi- Fifteen states spanning from the nessman Gary Trauner, who lost narrowly in this district East Coast to the Rocky Mountain in 2006, is running a competitive race against former GOP West close their polls at 9 p.m. state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis. Eastern time. With 158 electoral votes, more than a quarter of all electoral votes are at stake. Texas will be reliably red, and New York, reliably blue; Colorado and New Mexico will be watched closely to see if can crack the Mountain West.

Colorado’s 4th District AP Photos Republican Rep. Marilyn Wisconsin’s 8th District Musgrave faces another tough challenge this year. After first In a rematch of their tight 2006 con- Arizona’s 1st District capturing the seat in 2002 with 55 test, Democratic Rep. Steve Kagen faces former GOP Assembly Speaker In the sprawling 1st District — one of the largest percent of the vote, she dropped to 51 percent in 2004, followed by John Gard. In this Republican-leaning in the nation, at 59,000 square miles — the GOP is district, Gard might expect to get a pessimistic about its chances of victory. National an anemic 46 percent in 2006, the lowest winning percentage of any boost in a presidential election year, Democrats have spent heavily on behalf of state but the Democratic ticket has paid Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick; Republican Sydney Hay, House candidate that year. ’s 6th District Rep. Don Cazayoux, who won this Republican-held seat in a May 2008 close attention to Wisconsin, includ- the Arizona Mining Association president, has ing Green Bay. raised little money. special election, was the toast of the Democratic Caucus earlier this year. But he now faces a tougher challenge from Republican state Sen. , a task complicated by the presence of a black Democrat, state Rep. Michael Jackson, who is running as an independent. South Dakota Rhode Island Wyoming North Dakota wisconsin Electoral Votes: 3 2007 Population: 796,214 2004 Results Electoral Votes: 4 2007 Population: 1,057,832 2004 Results Electoral Votes: 3 2007 Population: 522,830 2004 Results Electoral Votes: 3 2007 Population: 639,715 2004 Results Electoral Votes: 10 2007 Population: 5,601,640 2004 Results Other Demographics Other Demographics Other Demographics Other Other 2% Demographics 2% 2% 2% Demographics 1% 88% 81.9% 88.9% Kerry 91.7% 87.3% Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Bush White White White 29% White 35% White 38% 60% 39% 69% 63% 50% 0.6% 1.4% 0.6% 9.3% 4% 8.7% 2.2% 3.2% 59% 0.7% 6.4% 0.5% 3.5% 0.6% 1.2% 0.6% 5.8% 5.6% 3.6% 1.6% 1.9% 49% Black Hispanic Asian Other Black Hispanic Asian Other Black Hispanic Asian Other Black Hispanic Asian Other Black Hispanic Asian Other ARizona Colorado Louisiana michigan minnesota new mexico new york Texas Kansas Nebraska Electoral Votes: 10 Electoral Votes: 9 Electoral Votes: 9 Electoral Votes: 17 Electoral Votes: 10 Electoral Votes: 5 Electoral Votes: 31 Electoral Votes: 34 Electoral Votes: 6 Electoral Votes: 5 2007 Population: 6,338,755 2007 Population: 4,861,515 2007 Population: 4,293,204 2007 Population: 10,071,822 2007 Population: 5,197,621 2007 Population: 1,969,915 2007 Population: 19,297,729 2007 Population: 23,904,380 2007 Population: 2,775,997 2007 Population: 1,774,571

Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch In the 1st District, 63.8% Democrats are 74.5% 62.5% 78.6% The Senate race 88.2% Democratic Rep. 44.7% Democrats are near- 62% 52.4% 83.1% 87.3% the GOP has all White heavily favored White White White between GOP White Tom Udall is in White guaranteed to win White White White White but lost hope of 2.9% to pick up the 3.7% 32.3% 14.1% Sen. Norm Cole- 3.4% a commanding 1.7% retiring Rep. Vito J. 14.8% 11.3% 5.6% 3.9% holding retiring Black state’s open Black Black Black man and former Black position to pick Black Fossella’s seat after Black Black Black Black Rep. Rick Renzi’s 25.3% Senate seat. 17.1% 2.4% 3.3% “Saturday Night 2.9% up the seat of 42.1% his drunken-driv- 15.1% 32% 7% 5.5% seat. Democratic Hispanic Rep. Mark Udall Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic Live” funnyman Al Hispanic retiring GOP Sen. Hispanic ing-and-secret-love- Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic state Rep. Ann ap ap ap ap ap 1.7% has led former 2.2% 1.2% 1.8% Franken has been 2.9% Pete V. Domenici. 1% child scandal. Yet 5.5% 2.7% 1.7% 1.3% Kirkpatrick is GOP Rep. Bob Cazayoux Walberg one of the nastiest National Republi- most Democratic Lampson Boyda Terry expected to coast Asian Schaffer in polls Asian Asian Asian in the country. Asian cans have all but Asian opportunities are in Asian Asian Asian Asian to victory against 6.3% throughout the 2.5% Sen. Mary L. 1.5% In the 7th District, 2.2% Republicans have 2.6% written off the 10.5% the upstate region. 2.6% Rep. 1.6% What’s the matter 2.5% Former Repub- 1.9% conservative Other campaign, and Other Landrieu is the Other freshman GOP Other turned Franken’s Other race. Democrats Other Former congres- Other is one of the most Other with Kansas, Other lican Gov. Mike Other activist Sydney national Repub- only targeted Sen- Rep. Tim Walberg past expletive-filled are also threaten- sional staffer Dan vulnerable Demo- Republicans might Johanns is heav- Hay. Democrats Median Household Median Household Median Household Median Household Median Household Median Household Median Household Median Household Median Household Median Household Income: licans stopped Income: ate Democrat this Income: has received Income: rants and racy Income: ing to pick up two Income: Maffei is favored to Income: cratic incumbents, Income: be asking. Repub- Income: ily favored to Income: are also hoping to spending money election, but she is lots of support comedy bits against House seats that defeat Republican fighting for survival licans have long hold the Senate oust Rep. John B. $47,265 on Schaffer’s $52,015 favored to defeat $39,337 from third-party $47,182 him, while Franken $54,023 have long been $40,629 Dale Sweetland in $51,384 in the conservative $44,922 thought freshman $45,478 seat left vacant $45,474 Shadegg, who did behalf last GOP state Trea- groups, but it may has accused Cole- under Republican retiring Rep. Jim suburban Houston Democratic Rep. by the retirement himself no favors Unemployment: Unemployment: Unemployment: Unemployment: Unemployment: Unemployment: Unemployment: Unemployment: Unemployment: Unemployment: 5.9% 6.1%* week. In the 4th 5.2% 6.1%* surer John Ken- 5.2% 6.1%* not be enough to 6.1%* 8.7% man of being Bush’s 5.9% 6.1%* control. On paper, 4% 6.1%* Walsh’s Syracuse- 5.8% 6.1%* district that Tom 5.1% 6.1%* was 4.8% 6.1%* of Republican 3.5% 6.1%* by announcing District, GOP nedy. Landrieu has fend off Demo- lackey. Independent their more promis- based district. Rep. DeLay held for two highly vulnerable, Chuck Hagel. his retirement *National average Rep. Marilyn *National average tagged Kennedy as *National average cratic state Sen. *National average Dean Barkley is *National average ing pickup is in *National average John R. Kuhl is *National average decades. Lampson *National average being one of the *National average So the real *National average earlier this year, 2004 Turnout Rate: Musgrave, 2004 Turnout Rate: “confused” in her 2004 Turnout Rate: Mark Schauer. In 2004 Turnout Rate: polling around 15 2004 Turnout Rate: the Albuquerque- 2004 Turnout Rate: locked in a tough 2004 Turnout Rate: faces Republican 2004 Turnout Rate: surprise winners 2004 Turnout Rate: action is in the 2004 Turnout Rate: only to reverse his who had the ads, a reference to the 9th District, percent. Mean- based 1st District, reelection battle Pete Olson, a of 2006. But she Omaha-based decision 10 days 47.7% lowest winning 61.7% his change in party 58.5% eight-term GOP 64% while, GOP Rep. 73.9% a perennial battle- 54.2% against his 2006 op- 50.7% former staffer to 45.5% has been resilient 58.3% 2nd District, 59.8% later. Democratic Pop. Breakdown percentage of Pop. Breakdown affiliation last Pop. Breakdown Rep. Joseph Pop. Breakdown Michele Bachmann Pop. Breakdown ground district Pop. Breakdown ponent, Eric Massa. Pop. Breakdown Sen. John Cornyn. Pop. Breakdown despite running Pop. Breakdown where Repub- Pop. Breakdown attorney Bob Lord year. Democrats Knollenberg is in made a major gaffe where Republican And Democrats But Democrats a lower-budget lican Rep. Lee has been running any House can- 88.2% didate in 2006, 84.5% will also be fever- 72.7% serious trouble. 74.7% by suggesting that 70.9% Darren White, 75% are pouring money 87.5% have high hopes for 82.5% grass-roots cam- 71.4% Terry is facing 69.7% a well-funded Urban Urban ishly defending Urban Republicans Urban House Democrats Urban the Bernalillo Urban into former NRCC Urban two late-breaking Urban paign, and she has Urban tough opposition Urban campaign capable has moder- 11.8% ated her socially 15.5% Rep. Don Cazay- 27.3% have written off 25.3% be investigated for 29.1% County sheriff, 25% Chairman Tom 12.5% sleeper races. In 17.5% a good chance at 28.6% from Democrat 30.3% of pulling off the oux, who won the this race, and their “anti-America” is the underdog Reynolds’ district winning a second Jim Esch in a upset. The state’s Rural conservative Rural Rural Rural Rural Rural Rural the 7th District, Rural Rural Rural rhetoric and 6th District in May Democrats have views. Those com- against Democrat in the hope that GOP Rep. John term against state rematch of their two Democratic but now faces a poured more ments jeopardized attorney Alice Treasurer Lynn freshmen have focused more Key Fact Key Fact Martin Heinrich, Key Fact Culberson faces a 2006 contest. The Key Fact Key Fact on constituent tougher challenge In , than $1.6 million Key Fact her prospects If elected, Madia an Albuquerque Kryzan can pull off Republicans are well-financed chal- Key Fact Jenkins. Still, Key Fact Obama campaign Western Nebras- shown they have into defeating by generating an Key Fact an upset against Jenkins has closed staying power: Arizona’s open 1st service, but she Key Fact from Republican Democrats will Over the course of would be the only city councilor. rapidly becoming lenge from energy Four of the 10 Boyda is the has made a con- ka’s 3rd District, District, which remains the un- A Democratic state Sen. Bill decide the fate Knollenberg. In a the election cycle, outpouring of Indian-American Democrats are No matter GOP businessman an endangered consultant Michael best-performing the gap in recent only Democratic certed effort to represented by Rep. Harry E. Chris Lee. The Mitchell is favored includes the Navajo derdog against surge that began Cassidy. Cazay- of indicted Rep. suburban district Democrats and contributions for member of Con- also bullish about what happens species in New Skelly; in the 10th congressional days and has an incumbent to win the district freshman GOP Nation, has the larg- businesswoman in 2004 has led oux’s prospects William Jeffer- that has been affiliated groups her Democratic gress. The most their chances of on Election lone GOP opportu- York, where they District, GOP Rep. districts for Bush opportunity to win refuse assistance given that he can Rep. Adrian against Maricopa nity comes against County Treasurer est American Indian Betsy Markey. to the pickup of are clouded by son, who is in a trending away have spent more opponent, Elwyn recent Indian- picking up the Day, New hold just six of the Michael T. McCaul were located in this conservative from the national pick up an elec- Smith, was David Schweik- population of any National Repub- the governor’s the presence of an Democratic runoff from the Republi- than $2.19 million Tinklenberg. American member open 2nd District Mexico will freshman Democrat state’s 29 House received unexpect- Texas. Bush’s district. Sen. Pat Democratic toral vote there. one of the 10 ert, while Rep. congressional dis- licans stopped office, a Senate African-American against a white can Party, former against Walberg, In the 3rd District, of Congress was seat in southern send a rookie Kirsten Gillibrand, seats. After Elec- edly tough opposi- best-performing Roberts is also Party; the DCCC That Democratic best-performing Gabrielle Giffords trict in the country. spending money seat and two Democrat, state television reporter, state Lottery while the GOP Republican Erik Louisiana’s Bobby New Mexico. senator and an but deep-pocketed tion Day, it’s pos- tion from attorney county in the na- expected to win a spent more than push has boosted congressional has the edge over George W. Bush on Musgrave GOP-held House Rep. Michael Helena Moreno, Commissioner and its affiliated Paulsen is squar- Jindal, who re- There, Democrat all-freshman Republican Sandy sible that the GOP Larry Joe Doherty, tion — Ochiltree third term against $450,000 anyway Esch’s campaign, districts for GOP state Senate carried it twice, more than a seats, as well as Jackson, who is in the heavily Gary Peters is groups have spent ing off against signed in January Harry Teague House delega- Treadwell appears delegation could who was a judge on County — deliv- former Democratic in an ad touting though Terry is Bush in 2004: President Tim winning 54 percent week ahead of control of the running as an African-American well-positioned $1.56 million on Democrat Ashwin 2008 after being faces Republican tion to the 111th unlikely to unseat be whittled down the TV show “Texas ered 92 percent in Rep. Jim Slattery. her indepen- still favored to He won 74.9 Bee. in 2004. Election Day. Legislature. independent. 2nd District. for a victory. his behalf. Madia. elected governor. Ed Tinsley. Congress. her. to just two seats. Justice.” 2004. dence. win. percent there.

2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact Other Phoenix’s Other The Democratic Other Louisiana has Other The GOP presi- Other Since 1960, only Other New Mexico Other John F. Kerry won Other Texas delivered Other Kansas has voted Other Nebraska has 1% Maricopa 1% presidential 1% voted for the win- 1% dential nominee 1% Hawaii has 1% was one of 2% Bronx County 1% a winning 1% Republican for 1% voted Democrat- County cast the nominee has ning presidential hasn’t carried voted for the Re- two states that with 82.8 percent, margin of 1.7 president since ic for president Kerry Bush second-largest Bush carried Colo- Kerry candidate in Bush Michigan since Kerry Bush publican ticket voted for Al Bush Manhattan’s New Kerry Bush million votes to Kerry 1936, except in Kerry Bush just once since Kerry Bush Kerry Kerry Bush Kerry Bush 33% 44% 55% number of votes 52% rado just once 42% every presiden- 48% 1988. 51% 48% less often than Gore in 2000 40% York County with 38% 61% Bush in 2004. 37% 1964, when it nar- 66% 1936. (679,455) for 47% since 1964. 57% tial election since 51% Minnesota has. 49% 50% and Bush in 58% 82.1 percent, and 62% rowly favored Lyn- Bush in 2004. 1968. 2004. Kings County with don Johnson over 74.9 percent. Barry Goldwater. SourceS: The Almanac of American Politics, 2008; bureau of labor statistics; u.s. census bureau Note: Due to rounding, not all demographics total 100 percent. Election results figures were also rounded, and for some states, “Other” category includes candidates such as Ralph Nader and Michael Badnarik.

Key Fact In the 111th Congress, Louisiana will have one of the most junior House del- egations in the country. At least three of Louisiana’s seven House members will be serving in their first full term and two will be in their third term.