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THE ‘PEACE TO PROSPERITY’ AND TRUMP’S CONUNDRUM
Zarina Othman1, Raed M. I. Qaddoura2, Marina Abdul Majid3
1PhD, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia ([email protected] 2Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia ([email protected]) 3PhD, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia ([email protected]) Received: 14 March 2020 Revised and Accepted: 8 July 2020 ABSTRACT: The Trump‟s 181 pages Peace to Prosperity plan, which presents solution to the roots of the Israel- Palestine conflict, is too similar to Israel‟s point of view. The Trump‟s plan minimized and lost the basic rights of the Palestinians at the time Arab and Muslim countries, in addition to the Palestinians themselves, are suffering from divisions and splits. They failed to find effective strategy to face the Trump‟s plan. This paper explains how Trump‟s administration applies the Realism to achieve the US interests in the Middle East. KEYWORDS: Peace to Prosperity, United States, Israel, Palestine, Trump, Conundrum.
BACKGROUND
Some observers have expressed optimism about Trump‟s announced intention to reach a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, the subsequent decisions made by his administration have revealed that this is not a political settlement based on the existing United Nations (UN) resolutions but rather an isolated American effort to resolve the outstanding issues in favor of Israel, in preparation for passing the “regional solution” and the normalization of Israel‟s relations with its Arab neighbors. One of Trump‟s first steps has been to appoint a special team to handle any peace talks between the Israelis and the Palestinians outside the United States (US) Department, consisting of three key Jewish advisors very close to the Israeli right in the person of Jared Kushner, his son-in- law, and the son of Jewish Orthodox immigrant parents managing Trump‟s legal office. Trump refers to state of Palestine throughout his vision as “a future state, not currently in existence that could be recognized by the United States only if the criteria described in this Vision are satisfactorily met.”1
PEACE TO PROSPERITY PLAN: THE VISION OF PEACE
It is better to start with Haaretz Israeli Newspaper op-ed: Trump‟s „Deal of the Century‟ Was Written in a Way So the Palestinians Would Reject It. Maybe That Was the Plan.2 The deal of the century is not a peace deal between Palestinians and Israelis. It is a deal between Arab traders and American traders. The US embassy in Jerusalem should be considered as a red line crossed by all Muslim countries as Jerusalem is a holy city for them. Trump‟s deal is a not a political deal but entirely a commercial deal. The Gulf countries are not in need of such a trade deal, they have their own oil revenues, and do not need his $50 billion.3 This deal is a regular business deal which keeps the monarchies in the Gulf in their place and Sisi president of Egypt, meaning they want to stay in power and America offers the guarantee.4 Normalization was a shared Israeli-American goal, explained Ali Semin.
1 Trump‟s Deal of the Century „Peace to Prosperity‟. The White House. 2 Haaretz Newspaper, “Trump‟s „Deal of the Century‟ Was Written in a Way So the Palestinians Would Reject It. Maybe That Was the Plan”, 26 January 2020, https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-trump-s-deal-of- the-century-was-written-so-the-palestinians-would-reject-it-1.8443677 (Aceessed 11 August 2020). 3 Ali Semin, Istanbul, 02 July 2019, personal interview.
4 Ibid.
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The biggest issue concerning the Israeli side was that it would no longer be a pariah state in the region and no longer be treated as an enemy. The Arab countries would no longer threaten to unite against it. Therefore, the solution was to turn it into a natural entity, which it cannot do unless it changed the way the public sees Israel and Palestine. Normalization was therefore an Israeli and an American interest. The resolution project between Egypt and Israel through the Camp David negotiations was US sponsored and so was the Oslo Accord, signed in Washington. America was the main sponsor and they agent in the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, also in the Wadi Araba agreement between Jordan and Israel. The American pressure on the Gulf countries to normalize their relations with Israel was in their strategic interest.5 The Trump‟s plan discussed different sections to cover the whole issues in the Middle East related to this historical conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians as follows:
The Exclusion of the Jerusalem File from the Negotiating Table
On December 6, 2017, the Trump administration recognized the City of Jerusalem as the eternal capital of Israel, and then, the embassy of the US moved to Jerusalem on 14 May 2018, thus opening the door for other countries to recognize Jerusalem‟s new status as well.6 The US administration thwarted the Palestinian move to obtain a UN Security Council resolution to prevent a modification in the legal situation in Jerusalem, as it vetoed the condemnation of Trump's decision on December 17, 2017. This indicated clearly America‟s adoption of the Israeli position by excluding the Jerusalem issue permanently from the negotiating table, contrary to the terms of reference stated in the Oslo agreement of 1993. It was an easy job for Trump‟s administration to make such kind of decision with Arabs will to accept the presence of Israel as a new member in the Arab community.7
Figure 1 The Greater Jerusalem Bill according to an expected map to the „Peace to Prosperity‟ plan- Source: Middle East Eye
5 Mohsen Saleh, Istanbul, 23 July 2019, personal interview.
6 Abdul Rashid Moten, “US Embassy in Jerusalem: Reasons, Implications and Consequences”, Intellectual Discourse, Vol. 26, No 1, 2018, p. 5-22. 7 Yousef M. Aljamal, “Trump‟s Decision to Recognize Jerusalem as Israel‟s Capital: Domestic Motivations and Regional Circumstances”, Journal of Al-Tamaddun, Vol. 15, No 1, 2020.
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Figure 2 The map of Jerusalem according to an expected map to the „Peace to Prosperity‟ plan- Source: Middle East Eye
Trump‟s team was looking for another alternative location outside the municipal border of Israel‟s exclusive capital city and reports identified the selected location as being Abu Dis situated 4 km east of Jerusalem, a new city built in the late 1990s and a Palestinian population of 13,000.8 Most of the land in and around Abu Dis was under Israeli control and surrounded by Jewish settlements. The same situation was present in Maale Adumim with more than 40,000 inhabitants.9 The proposal of reallocating the capital to Abu Dis and changing its name to al-Quds (Arabic for Jerusalem) had already been made under the Clinton administration.10 However, this idea was taken up again recently and rejected by Mahmud Abbas. Jerusalem will continue the self-governing capital to the Israelis, and it should be undivided capital. The Palestinian new capital should be in a selected area in the East Jerusalem located with security barriers and the Palestinians can name it as Al Quds or any other term to be chosen by the them.11 Internationally, the City of Jerusalem should be recognized as Israel‟s eternal capital. At the same time, Al Quds (or any other term) should be recognized as Palestine‟s capital. The „Peace to Prosperity‟ confirmed:
“Neither party shall encourage or support efforts by other countries or persons to deny the legitimacy of the other party’s capital or its sovereignty. The mayors for each capital city will establish mechanisms for regular consultation and voluntary cooperation on matters of significance to the two capitals. The embassy of the United States to the State of Israel will remain in Jerusalem. Following the signing of the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Agreement, the embassy of the United States to the State of Palestine will be in Al Quds at a location to be chosen by the United States, in agreement with the State of Palestine. The United States will recognize the State of Israel and the State of Palestine in their respective capitals and encourage other nations to relocate their embassies to Jerusalem and Al Quds, as applicable.”12
8 Jonathan Cook, “How Israel is 'cleansing' Palestinians from Greater Jerusalem”, The Middle East Eye, 01 January 2018.
9 Larry Derfner, “The Settlement That Broke the Two-State Solution”, The Foreign Policy, 26 December 2012. 10 Jonathan Cook, “How Israel is 'cleansing' Palestinians from Greater Jerusalem”, The Middle East Eye, 01 January 2018.
11 James Reinl, “Analysis: Four theories behind Trump‟s Jerusalem embassy move”, 14 December 2017, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/analysis-four-theories-behind-trumps-jerusalem-embassy-move (Accessed 15 August 2020). 12 Trump‟s Deal of the Century „Peace to Prosperity‟. The White House.
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The Liquidation of the Refugee Issue
The US administration has already taken steps to remove the refugee issue, one of the most difficult issues in final status issues, and submitted a memorandum to the presidency of The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) on 16 January 2018, informing it that it will suspend $65 million of its support.13 In this context, Foreign Policy magazine revealed Kushner‟s efforts to get rid of UNRWA, as part of a wider steps led by President Trump and the US Congress intended to settle the issue of refugees, and the issue of returning to their home from negotiations. That effort shows the Trump administration‟s intention to reformulate the terms of the refugee matter for Israel, as it did when Trump‟s administration recognized the City of Jerusalem as the eternal capital of Israel in last December 2017.14 All suggestions that request Israel‟s acceptance to settle the Palestinian refugees‟ issue, or to compensate them with billions of dollars, “have never been realistic and a credible funding source has never been identified.”15 The Peace to Prosperity stated that:
“the world struggles to find sufficient funds to support the over 70 million global refugees and displaced persons. Over the decades the United States has been committed to supporting the needs of Palestinian refugees, who have suffered greatly over the last 70 years. From 1950 until and including 2017, the United States contributed approximately $6.15 billion to United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). In the last 10 years alone, the U.S. contributed approximately $2.99 billion ($3.16 billion in 2017 terms), which accounted for 28% of all contributions to UNRWA. Unfortunately, Palestinian refugees have been treated as pawns in the broader Middle East chessboard, and empty promises have been made to them and to their host countries. A just, fair and realistic solution to the Palestinian refugee issue must be found in order to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”16
Trump‟s administration has already taken steps to remove the refugee issue, one of the most difficult issues among the final status issues, and submitted a memorandum to the UNRWA on 16 January 2018 informing that it will suspend $65 million of its support.17 The political magazine Foreign Policy revealed Kushner‟s efforts to cancel its UNRWA as part of a broader US campaign to remove the right of return for the Palestinian refugees from the negotiations in 2017. The US administration claimed that there are Jews who became refugees after the 1948 and 1967 wars and were forced to move out from the Arab countries. The Jewish refugee matter, including compensation them must also be discussed alongside with the Palestinian refugees‟ issue.18 “A just, fair and realistic solution for the issues relating to Jewish refugees must be implemented through an appropriate international mechanism separate from the Israel-Palestinian Peace Agreement.” Peace to Prosperity Plan continued.19
13 Ibid. 14 Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer, “Trump and Allies Seek End to Refugee Status for Millions of Palestinians”, 13 August 2018, https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/08/03/trump-palestinians-israel-refugees-unrwaand-allies-seek- end-to-refugee-status-for-millions-of-palestinians-united-nations-relief-and-works-agency-unrwa-israel- palestine-peace-plan-jared-kushner-greenb/ (Accessed 14 August 2020). 15 Trump‟s Deal of the Century „Peace to Prosperity‟. The White House. 16 Ibid. 17 Edward Wong, “US to End Funding to U.N. Agency That Helps Palestinian Refugees”, 31 August 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/31/us/politics/trump-unrwa-palestinians.html (Accessed 13 August 2020). 18 Trump‟s Deal of the Century „Peace to Prosperity‟. The White House. 19 Ibid.
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Figure 3 The Majority of the Palestinian Refugees- Source: Middle East Eye
The US administration and through its Peace to Prosperity Plan suggests three choices to settle the issue of the Palestinian refugees:20
i. The Palestinian lands capacity; ii. To be added and mixed in the local countries they live in; or iii. To accept at least 5,000 Palestinian refugees per year and up to 50,000 for ten years as a kind of solution with countries from Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).
Weakening the Palestinian National Authority
The Trump administration suspended its financial aid to the Palestinian Authority in June 2018.21 The new measures fell under the Taylor Force Act passed by Congress, which halted all aid to the PA unless salaries paid to families of martyrs and prisoners were stopped. Perhaps the most important goal of this political siege is to cut off aid and thus weaken the PA and force it to respond to the new US policies and accept Trump‟s deal. Trump‟s administration applied some penalties against the Palestinian Authority before and after the announcing of the Deal of the Century Plan. These penalties as follows:
Cutting off all the aid to the Palestinian Authority
Former Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah stated during an interview with CNBC News that “the US administration had decided to stop all aid to the Palestinians.”22 This decision includes “direct aid to the
20 Ibid. 21 Jim Zanotti, “The Palestinians: Background and US Relations”, Current Politics and Economics of the Middle East, Vol. 9, No. 4, 2018, p. 685-730. 22 Natasha Turak, “Palestinian PM calls out Trump‟s disengagement with Palestine, says it‟s „not encouraging‟”, An interview with former Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah, 24 January 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/24/palestinian-pm-calls-out-trumps-disengagement-with-palestine.html (Accessed 13 August 2020).
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ISSN- 2394-5125 VOL 7, ISSUE 17, 2020 treasury and the indirect aid that comes in favor of infrastructure and development projects,” according to Hamdallah. He added, “they officially told us that the aid will stop. Direct aid has already stopped and no US dollar has entered the treasury for months, while other aid has either been stopped immediately or is being stopped, and some projects will not be renewed once they are completed.”23 In a press release, The White House mentioned that Trump‟s administration has redirected more than USD 200 million of financial assistance and help to the Gaza Strip and the West Bank to be implemented to another place.24
Stopping aid to Jerusalem hospitals
On 9 September 2018, an announcement by the US State Department stated that it had suspended USD 25 million, which was to assist the Palestinian hospitals in Jerusalem.25 Hospitals in East Jerusalem provide medical services to the Palestinian people in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and the East Jerusalem, and some of the medical services available in Jerusalem hospitals are not available in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, such as treating tumors and eyes.
Closure of the Palestine Liberation Organization office in Washington
The Secretary-General of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Saeb Erekat announced that the US informed them of its decision to close the organization‟s office in Washington.26 “We have been officially informed that the American administration will close our embassy in Washington as punishment for continuing to work with the International Criminal Court against Israeli war crimes, and will lower the Palestinian flag in Washington, DC.” 27 The US administration decided also to expel the Palestinian ambassador Husam Zomlot and his family.28
The New Gaza
“The blockade of the Gaza Strip is against international law,” explained Meryem İlayda Atlas.29 Blockades were applied to enemy territory, and Palestinian land was not enemy territory but occupied territory since more than 70 years. No areas in the Middle East had suffered more under military occupation and aggression than Gaza and the West Bank. US supported this blockade intentionally by allowing Israel to impose a land, sea and air blockade on the Gaza Strip which caused a major electricity and water crisis. Once the war in Syria erupted, Israel needed its US ally to protect its security along the Syrian border. Iraq was also in crisis.30 In 2014, an Israeli article reported that Israeli officials - in cooperation with America - were working on the “Greater Gaza" plan to take control of northern Sinai. Although observers believe that the Sinai plan only succeeded due to the effective
23 Ibid. 24 Karen DeYoung, “Trump administration cuts more than $200 million in aid to the Palestinians”, 24 August 2018, https://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Trump-administration-cuts-more-than-200-million-13181221.php (Accessed 10 August 2020). 25 David Brunnstrom, “Trump cuts $25 million in aid for Palestinians in East Jerusalem hospitals”, 09 September 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-palestinians-hospitals/trump-axes-25-million-in-aid-for- palestinians-in-east-jerusalem-hospitals-idUSKCN1LO0O0 (Accessed 10 August 2020).
26 France 24, “US asks Palestinian mission in Washington, DC, to close”, 10 September 2018, https://www.france24.com/en/20180910-usa-palestinian-PLO-mission-washington-dc-close-trump- israel (Accessed 10 August 2020). 27 Ibid. 28 Tom Embury-Dennis, “Trump administration revok'es visas of Palestinian mission ambassador's family”, 17 September 2018, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/trump-israel-palestine-husam-zomlot- mission-ambassador-family-visa-washington-dc-a8541501.html (Accessed 10 August 2020). 29 Meryem İlayda Atlas, Istanbul, 27 June 2019, personal interview. 30 Ibid.
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ISSN- 2394-5125 VOL 7, ISSUE 17, 2020 support from Washington.31 Such a joint operation had been planned for over a decade as it promised substantial advantages for both Israel and the US, such as those listed below:
a) The division between West Bank and Gaza would become permanent and cause a rift between Hamas and Fatah. b) The Gaza issue would be downgraded from a diplomatic to a humanitarian issue. c) This plan establishes a de facto Palestinian statelet present in the Sinai region and in Gaza, mostly situated outside Palestine borders. d) Millions of Palestinian refugees present in the territory of Egypt would be settled in Israel. e) The claims of the Palestinian Authority and Mahmud Abbas to win statehood for Palestine would further weaken. f) Gaza's Palestinian population would be shifted to Egypt. g) According to the Trump‟s Deal of the Century Plan,32 Israel will implement its responsibilities under any future Israeli-Palestinian peace arrangement if: (A) i. “The Palestinian Authority or another national or international body acceptable to the State of Israel is in full control of Gaza, in a manner consistent with paragraph (B)(2) below; ii. Hamas, Palestnian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and all other militias and terror organizations in Gaza are disarmed; and iii. Gaza is fully demilitarized. (B) i. If efforts to return all Israeli captives and the remains of Israeli soldiers have not have previously been successful, then upon the signing of the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Agreement, all Israeli captives and remains must be returned. ii. If Hamas is to play any role in a Palestinian government, it must commit to the path of peace with the State of Israel by adopting the Quartet principles, which include unambiguously and explicitly recognizing the State of Israel, committing to nonviolence, and accepting previous agreements and obligations between the parties, including the disarming of all terrorist groups. The United States expects that the State of Palestine’s government will not include any members of Hamas, PIJ, or surrogates thereof, unless all of the foregoing shall have occurred.”
31 Jonathan Cook, “Sisi holds key to Trump's Sinai plan for Palestinians”, 06 July 2018, https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/sisi-holds-key-trumps-sinai-plan-palestinians (Accessed 10 August 2020).
32 Trump‟s Deal of the Century „Peace to Prosperity‟. The White House.
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Figure 4 The map of the New Gaza according to an expected map to the „Peace to Prosperity‟ plan33- Source: Middle East Eye
Normalization of Arab-Israeli Relations
Israel used the unstable situation in the region to promote cooperation with Arab countries to fight terrorism and promote regional peace. Netanyahu asked Trump at their first meeting in Washington to help increase cooperation with Arab countries.34 He declared that “the hostile camp can be defeated and we should seize the opportunity because, moderate Arab countries do not see Israel as an enemy for the first time.”35 The US is seeking to pass a regional solution based on the normalization of Arab-Israeli relations and an alliance against the Iranian threat. This was evident in Trump's speech at the Arab-American summit in Riyadh in May 2017.36 The leaks on
33 Jonathan Cook, “Sisi holds key to Trump's Sinai plan for Palestinians”, 06 July 2018, https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/sisi-holds-key-trumps-sinai-plan-palestinians (Accessed 10 August 2020).
34 Peter Baker and Mark Landler, “Trump May Turn to Arab Allies for Help with Israeli-Palestinian Relations”, 09 February 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/09/world/middleeast/trump-arabs-palestinians-israel.html (Accessed 06 August 2020). 35 Kersten Knipp, “Israel and Saudi Arabia: New best friends in the Middle East”, 28 November 2017, https://www.dw.com/en/israel-and-saudi-arabia-new-best-friends-in-the-middle-east/a-41571420 (Accessed 06 August 2020). 36 Hussein Ibish, “In Search of a Trump Administration Middle East Policy”, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, No 1, 2017, p. 7-19.
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ISSN- 2394-5125 VOL 7, ISSUE 17, 2020 the deal of the century suggest the Trump administration‟s adoption of the Israeli strategy to prevent the creation of an independent state for the Palestinian people within the 1967 borders, through the establishment of a Palestinian entity based in the Gaza Strip and annexed by the densely populated Palestinian enclaves in the West Bank, without specifying the final form of this entity. The Trump‟s Deal of the Century Plan stated clearly that “Peace to Prosperity Plan aims to attain the recognition by, and normalization with, those countries who do not recognize Israel or have a relationship with it.”37 Today, the US is throwing its weight on the Arab countries and Israel to build bridges of normalization on both sides. The previous administrations were convinced that the Arab- Israeli normalization process could only be started after the Palestinian-Israeli conflict was resolved. Trump challenged this idea by simply moving ahead with Arab-Israeli normalization without waiting for the conflict to be resolved.38 In the Peace Initiative of 2002, the Palestinians made it clear that there would be no normalization and end to the resistance until Israel had given the lands back it had occupied in 1967. However, the current US administration was itself being involved in the growth of the Israeli settlements in the West Bank.39 Soli Özel commented that the Trump administration did away with the American policy in the Middle East altogether and had shamelessly taken a definite pro-Israeli position and so had Saudi Arabia. The „deal of the century‟ was predicated upon the rejection of Palestinian political rights and the Palestinian political identity. He considered the Bahrain workshop as scandalous and was certain that the Palestinians would reject the deal.40
Sovereignty over the Golan Heights
By recognizing Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights, the Trump administration confirmed that this sovereignty was part of a policy of self-defense, which would set a precedent for US abandonment of the term Israeli occupation of territories occupied in June 1967. The US Department's report on the state of human rights in the world for 2019 dropped the term "occupied territories" to describe Palestinian territories and that the word “occupation” was only used twice. 41 The Israeli newspaper The Jerusalem Post revealed that it was the US ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, who called the US Department to stop using the term “occupied Palestinian territories.” 42 The danger of the US recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Syrian Golan lies in the fact that it could pave the way for US recognition of Israeli sovereignty to major settlement blocs and to Area C of the West Bank, which would perpetuate Israeli occupation and bury any future peace resolution process.
Figure 5 The occupied Golan Heights to be annexed by Israel ACTORS IN THE ‘PEACE TO PROSPERITY’
Trump‟s deal had broken away from all international agreements and principles, argued Adnan Abu Amer.43 It did not recognize the Security Council resolutions and reduced the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which was a
37 Trump‟s Deal of the Century „Peace to Prosperity‟. The White House. 38 Adnan Abu Amer, Gaza, 03 August 2019. Personal interview.
39 Daud Abdullah, UK Skype, 15 July 2019. Personal interview.
40 Soli Özel, Istanbul, 04 July 2019. Personal interview. 41 Michael Wilner, “State Dept. drops 'occupied' reference to Palestinian territories in report”, 21 April, 2018, https://www.jpost.com/american-politics/state-dept-drops-occupied-reference-to-palestinian-territories-in-report- 551365 (Accessed 07 August 2020). 42 Ibid. 43 Adnan Abu Amer, Gaza, 03 August 2019. Personal interview.
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ISSN- 2394-5125 VOL 7, ISSUE 17, 2020 political conflict, to an economic issue by focusing any discussion on the question of international funds the Palestinians were or were not to receive. The Trump administration is trying to tempt the Arab countries through the promise of various grants and projects or by intimidation such as the suspension of aid and pressure on the Palestinian Authority to undermine its political position. The extent of its success or failure depended on the political developments in the coming period. It might succeed of the Arab countries were convinced that it was in their best interest to normalize with Israel and instead focus all public attention on Iran.44
The Palestinian Role
Although the Palestinian Authority had suspended all negotiations in 2014 in face of the continued construction of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, it signaled its willingness to resume the negotiations in the near future. When Trump unveiled his „deal of the century‟ the Palestinian Authority took two approaches; the first was to acknowledge some of its points by taking a hard line towards Hamas, increase economic sanctions and cut salaries to the people of the Gaza Strip in order to pressure Hamas into handing over Gaza, and the second to insist on reaching a solution in accordance with the UN resolutions and returning to the two-state solution. As for the Palestinian Islamic resistance, Hamas openly opposed Trump‟s deal in a statement made by Ismail Haniyeh, head of the Political Bureau. He stressed that there was no alternative to Palestine, no retreat from the right of return and that any solution that denied the aspirations of the Palestinian resistance would fail. Despite the internal divisions between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, and between Hamas and Fatah, the shared Palestinian position was to reject all items of the deal. In March 30, 2018, the following Gaza border protests (Great March of Return) showed a clear message to Israel that the Palestinians remained determined in their demand to list the Israeli blockade on Gaza and achieve their right of return.45 Figure 6 illustrates the map of the State of Palestine based on Trump‟s Peace to Prosperity Plan.
Figure 6 The Conceptual Map for the Future State of Palestine according to the Trump‟s „Peace to Prosperity‟-Source: The White House
44 Ibid.
45 “Approaching the first anniversary of the Great March of Return protests in Gaza”, 27 March 2019, https://www.un.org/unispal/document/approaching-the-first-anniversary-of-the-great-march-of-return-protests- in-gaza-ocha-article/ (Accessed 07 August 2020).
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The Israeli Role
It is public knowledge that the recent diplomatic efforts made by the Trump administration are first and foremost in the interest of Israel which needs the US to put pressure on Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan to ensure that Israel retains its control over the West Bank. It relies on the principle of “land for peace” whereby it steals more and more Palestinian territories in return for the Palestinians‟ right of self- determination.
Since he came to power in 2009, Netanyahu has been seeking to exploit the conditions in the Arab region and the combined fear of a growing Iranian threat to form an Arab-Israeli alliance and thus fully normalize its regional relations. 46 At the same time, he has continued to exert pressure on Palestinian internal affairs including repeated attacks on Gaza and laying claim on all of Jerusalem. According to The Israel Project, the role that each country plays in the conflict is determined by the gains it expects to reap.
Figure 7 The Conceptual Map for the Future State of Israel according to the Trump‟s „Peace to Prosperity‟ Source: The White House
46 Omar H. Rahman, “What‟s behind the relationship between Israel and Arab Gulf states?”, Global Economy and Development at Brookings, 2019.
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The Egyptian Role
Egypt has strong pressure cards on the Palestinian Authority and the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Since Egypt has a lot of gains to make from Trump‟s deal, it is anticipated that Egypt will intend to implement it. If Egypt accepts the transfer of the 720 km area in the Sinai Peninsula to Israel, it is promised an area of equal size in the Negev desert.47 Thus, Egypt would no longer have to divide its control between the Mediterranean Sea in the north and the Red Sea in the south. Also, the maritime traffic between Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Iraq will be available with the permission of Israel. Therefore, Egypt will reap enormous economic gains by obtaining its share of customs and duties for every movement between Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and the Gulf States to the port of Gaza. However, it is unlikely that Egypt will agree to forcibly remove the people of Gaza to the Sinai; rather, it would prefer to do so indirectly through the Palestinian Authority and Hamas. The Palestinians would be given considerable economic and financial incentives to do so, and the area in the Sinai would be under Palestinian administration and Egyptian security control, in addition to a port and an international airport and a commercial area. Such a promise is attractive for the residents of Gaza and the refugees abroad as it will promise more employment opportunities.
The Role of Saudi Arabia
The Saudi kingdom is considered as the leading actor in the resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Under King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, Saudi Arabia had launched the Arab Peace Initiative (2002) which demanded Israel to withdraw from the Palestinian territories occupied since 4 June 1967 and a fair resolution to the issue of the Palestinian refugees based on the UN General Assembly Resolution No. 194.48 However, Saudi interest in the Palestinian cause has declined under Mohammed bin Salman who has entered into a war with Yemen since 2015 and caused the Gulf crisis involving Qatar.49 He instigated a radical shift in Saudi internal and external policies in order to maintain the country‟s central position within the axis of the Middle Eastern powers and the Muslim world at large. To reinforce the kingdom's strong position in the region, Prince Salman has formed Arab alliances known as the Arab-Islamic Coalition to counter terrorism and with the US and Israel in the face of the threat of expanding Iranian influence. The kingdom's new behavior may be explained by the so-called convergence of interests between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which in turn has invested the kingdom's circumstances and brought it closer to the Trump administration to play an active role in the deal. Western and Arab media have revealed the extent of Israeli-Saudi rapprochement and coordination to resolve issues of peace and conflict in the region.
The Role of Turkey
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made the public statement that Ankara would never accept the American Middle East peace plan saying, “it is impossible for Turkey to positively deal with the US peace plan in the Middle East.”50 Also, the Minister of Turkish Foreign Affairs Mevlut Cavusoglu criticized the US „Peace to Prosperity‟ plan and defended the rights of the Palestinians. Cavusoglu said during the executive committee meeting for the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) held in Saudi Arabia, that a potential deal could not be attained by ignoring the dignity of the Palestinians and “the just and legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people.”51 Cavusoglu added that the US economic plans which mentioned during the Bahrain workshop cannot
47 Abdellatif El-Menawy, “Egypt-Israel land swap idea likely to be a dead end”, 28 April, 2019, https://www.arabnews.com/node/1489266 (Accessed 07 August 2020). 48 Joshua Teitelbaum, The Arab peace initiative: A primer and future prospects, Jerusalem, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, 2009. 49 Zahra Aghamohammadi and Ali Omidi, “The Prospect of the United States and Saudi Arabia Relations In light of Khashoggi Murder”, World Sociopolitical Studies, Vol. 2, No 4, 2018, p. 605-632. 50 James Mills, “Turkey's President Erdogan declares Donald Trump's Middle East peace plan 'absolutely unacceptable' and accuses it of 'legitimizing Israel's occupation'”, 29 January 2020, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7942333/Turkeys-President-Erdogan-declares-Donald-Trumps- Middle-East-peace-plan-absolutely-unacceptable.html (Accessed 07 August 2020). 51 “Turkey criticizes US deal of the Century, supports Palestinian rights”, 18 July 2019, https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20190718-turkey-criticises-us-deal-of-the-century-supports-palestinian- rights/ (Accessed 07 August 2020).
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ISSN- 2394-5125 VOL 7, ISSUE 17, 2020 replace the need for dignity, justice and freedom. And no project can succeed without a just peace.”52 He continued, “expansion of illegal settlements continues throughout the occupied Palestinian territory, including in and around Al-Quds, as well as in the West Bank. This is a deliberate attempt to undermine the two-state vision.”53
ACHIEVING ECONOMIC PEACE AND THE US INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Israel wishes to use Trump's chance to pass the largest and most serious deal it has tried to promote for over a quarter of a century: a medium-term peace truce with the Palestinians and Arabs based on enhancing the economic and humanitarian status in the Palestinian territories. Moreover, this deal imposed on the Palestinian Authority to negotiate on their right in the majorities of the West Bank lands, and to recognize the extension of its control over the Gaza Strip to drop the Palestinians‟ right in the East Jerusalem, where officially considered by the Jewish state, as the capital of Israel. The Israeli Authorities, according to the plan of successive governments, especially those led by the right seeks to build an economic and urban belt that serves as a new wall in the face of the operations of resistance movements, and be a separation between the settlements and the positions of the Palestinians. The Israelis are trying hard to negotiate a weakening of Hamas in exchange for strengthening the Palestinian Authority to act as negotiator and legitimate ruler, with the implicit exclusion of resistance movements considered as terrorist. The Trump administration seeks to convince the international community and the Arab and Gulf governments of a multinational investment map. This map, according to the economic peace status, will promote development and employment in return for joint protection of these areas, making Israel's positions in the West Bank and East Jerusalem safe from any possible future attacks.
It seems that the "deal of the century" is not the only source of disagreement among the Arab leaders, but there is a clear difference in Arab foreign policies, despite its disparate rapprochement with Trump, who wants to expedite the deal. He is betting on the political and financial weight of the Gulf states in the success of the agreement and convincing the Palestinians and the rest of the Arab world. The position of the Gulf countries has become central to any future peace agreement with Israel, which Trump tries to turn to his favor by offering $1 billion investment projects toward exploring the Gaza Marine gas field. 54 Israel is closely watching the development of Arab attitudes towards the draft peace deal, especially after the divisions left by the Arab Spring. It constantly monitors the change of Arab attitudes in favor of a peace agreement through the follow-up of Arab press reports. Israel applauds criticism of some media outlets in Egypt and the Gulf states for refusing Palestinians and Arabs the option of negotiating the deal. Some Arab media dealt with the Palestinian rejectionism such as Abdulrahman Al-Rashed, who is the former general manager of Al-Arabiya television and the former editor-in- chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly magazine Al-Majalla. He said:
“Talks and life have finally returned to the Palestinian issue — a good sign after a long slumber. However, reactions to the so-called “deal of the century” express the familiar. The Israelis say: The plan is a great step, although we have not got the details. The Palestinians repeat their old stance: We reject the plan even though we do not know what it is, and it may only be an attempt to save Benjamin Netanyahu from the prison threat he is facing.”55
Such unofficial positions are seen by Israel as signs of certain Arab political elites accepting the deal. However, no official statement has been issued by any Arab country that supports or rejects the deal. In the present situation it can also be assumed that Washington may resort to putting more pressure on the Gulf countries by fueling tension in the region and using Iran as a threat to expose it to the risks of a conflict they do not want. Peace to Prosperity Plan works on to allow the Palestinian people to build an affluent and lively Palestinian community.
52 Ibid. 53 Ibid. 54 Claire Parker, “Jared Kushner‟s new economic plan for Palestinians sounds a lot like old, failed plans”, 25 June 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/jared-kushners-new-economic-plan-for-palestinians- sounds-a-lot-like-old-failed-plans/2019/06/24/13bdec5e-96c6-11e9-916d-9c61607d8190_story.html (Accessed 07 August 2020). 55 Abdulrahman Al-Rashed, “Palestinians Will Lose out by Rejecting Peace Talks”, 29 January 2020, https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/2104791/abdulrahman-al-rashed/palestinians-will-lose-out-rejecting- peace-talks (Accessed 07 August 2020).
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The Plan consists of three initiatives that will support all the Palestinian pillars: the economy, the people, and the government.56 Peace to Prosperity Plan will provide a new investment for the new Palestinian state for the next ten years with more than $50 billion to be funded.57
According to the Peace to Prosperity Plan, the first initiative will release the Palestinian economy to start;
“By developing property and contract rights, the rule of law, anti-corruption measures, capital markets, a pro-growth tax structure, and a low-tariff scheme with reduced trade barriers, this initiative envisions policy reforms coupled with strategic infrastructure investments that will improve the business environment and stimulate private-sector growth. Hospitals, schools, homes, and businesses will secure reliable access to affordable electricity, clean water, and digital services. Billions of dollars of new investment will flow into various sectors of the Palestinian economy; businesses will have access to capital; and the markets of the West Bank and Gaza will be connected with key trading partners, including Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon. The resulting economic growth has the potential to end the current unemployment crisis and transform the West Bank and Gaza into a center of opportunity.”58
The second initiative will allow the Palestinians to achieve their goals and aspirations;
“through new data-driven, outcomes-based education options at home, expanded online education platforms, increased vocational and technical training, and the prospect of international exchanges, this initiative will enhance and expand a variety of programs that directly improve the well-being of the Palestinian people. It will strengthen the Palestinian educational system and ensure that students can fulfill their academic goals and be prepared for the workforce. Equally important, access to quality healthcare will be dramatically improved, as Palestinian hospitals and clinics will be outfitted with the latest healthcare technology and equipment. In addition, new opportunities for cultural and recreational activities will improve the quality of life of the Palestinian people. From parks and cultural institutions, to athletic facilities and libraries, this initiative’s projects will enrich public life throughout the West Bank and Gaza.”59
The third initiative will improve the governance system of the Palestinian, improving the capabilities of public sector to help the Palestinians and to empower the growth of private-sectors;
“this initiative will support the public sector in undertaking the improvements and reforms necessary to achieve long-term economic success. A commitment to upholding property rights, improving the legal and regulatory framework for businesses, adopting a growth-oriented, enforceable tax structure, and developing robust capital markets will increase exports and foreign direct investment. A fair and independent judicial branch will ensure this pro-growth environment is protected and that civil society flourishes. New systems and policies will help bolster government transparency and accountability. International partners will work to eliminate the Palestinian public sector’s donor dependency and put the Palestinians on a trajectory to achieve long-term fiscal sustainability. Institutions will be modernized and made more efficient to facilitate the most effective delivery of essential services for the citizens. With the support of the Palestinian leadership, this initiative can usher in a new era of freedom and opportunity for the Palestinian people and institutionalize the policies required for successful economic transformation.”60
56 Trump‟s Deal of the Century „Peace to Prosperity‟. The White House. 57 Ibid. 58 Ibid. 59 Ibid. 60 Ibid.
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Figure 8 The total programs of the Gaza Strip and West Bank Source: The White House
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Figure 9 The Totals of Regional Program- Source: The White House
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The principles of theory of Realism show how the US apply this theory to achieve its interests in the Middle East. Realism has been easily the most influential theory of international relations. Realists assume that states have effective governments. For realists, the world is an anarchy which refers to the „absence of government‟. Realism theory argues that there is no world government; there is no international force; the international organizations such as the United Nations are not effective and the international law is weak. The US also has used the „Inside and outside Theory‟ where the „Inside Theory‟ means the values of peace and safety in the domestic level of politics. While the „Outside Theory‟ refers to the values of competition, threat and war in the international level of politics for the states. Realists believe that being a powerful state will help you to control and get access to more states and this will lead you to reach the most important resources of those states such petrol, oil, gas and others. Also, the Realists argue that human beings are selfish and they like to dominate more and more. Gilpin‟s law claims that states try to maximize their power and so they can control as more as they able. The Realists believe that the „security dilemma‟ came as a result of states‟ fear to be attacked by other states, so they tend to form alliances with powerful states to be safe and dominate in their areas of presence.
Figure 10 An Application on the Realist Theory in the Context of US Offensive Realism in the Middle East- Source: The Author
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The Trump administration believes in change in mechanisms, not objectives. There are constants in American policy that constitute continuity, regardless of the respective administrations, whether Republican or Democrat. All administrations agree on achieving those constants that are related to defending American interests. Trump also prefers Realism over Idealism. His statements and positions on the Middle East show a tendency towards stability, cooperation with the ruling regimes to fight terrorism and taking a tough position on Islamist movements. On the other hand, the promotion of democracy, civil freedoms and human rights that distinguished the policy of the Obama administration, especially during the years of the Arab Spring revolutions and its rapprochement with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood.
Figure 11 An Application of the Realist Theory in the Context of US National Interests in the Middle East- Source: The Author
The Trump administration has emphasized on the need to provide all forms of support to ensure Israel's prosperity and security in the region, a position that can be clearly identified in Trump‟s joint campaign statement with his advisers, Jason Greenblatt and David Friedman which reflected attitudes almost identical to those endorsed by the Israeli right. Trump promised that he would not only continue to provide unparalleled US support to Israel but also do its utmost to increase it. This has made a two-state solution most likely in the near future, while the blame for the failure of the peace process and other solutions is put firmly on the Palestinian side. In general, the overall US strategy in the Middle East has not changed its foundations. First and foremost, Israeli forms the cornerstone of American policy in the Middle East, thus maintaining the Israeli entity and its security as a great regional power in the region. The control of its oil resources means America's needs are secured and used as a tool to exert pressure on international strategic policies. The third point is the securing of cruise lines and international trade lines in the region such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandab Strait as they serve as the main arteries of international trade for America and its allies. The fourth point relates to
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American efforts to prevent other major powers that are competing for influence in the region such as Russia and China, form succeeding.61
In recent years, there was some kind of competition for Syria and some kind of hesitation in the way American policy was managed, commented Mohsen Saleh. In general, most of the region remains under the dominating influence of US policy. Overall, however, the security of the Israeli entity constituted the basis of American policy and the building of strategies and interests in the region. Therefore, regimes are required not to enter into a state of superiority with the Israeli entity. The Arab regimes were required to suppress their own people‟s wish for democracy, prevent them from offering any form of resistance and enter into normalization with the Israeli entity. The only degree of flexibility in US policy was shown in the call for restrained action towards their opposition in order to prevent more revolutions. However, when Trump took office, the American regime had increased its arrogance and its pressure and made it clear that it did not care about the future of those regimes. In the end, they were the ones in need of American support and could thus be openly used as tools in the region to serve American and Israeli interests.62
The conflict in the Middle East played an important role in US elections, argued Ali Semin, “but the conflict between whom? Not between Arab states but between Palestine and Israel.”63 The most important question for the all parties was, if they really wanted peace between Palestinians and Israelis and in the whole region, then why did America invade Iraq? And if the US supported the Arab Spring and democratization, then why was the democratically elected Morsi government not allowed to stay in power? The truth was that the only form of peace in the Middle East had to be an American peace. Unfortunately, the Arab countries had failed to formulate a peace plan for Israel and Palestine and the best that they had done was to offer compensation to Israel under Arafat. Even the agreements between America and Jordan resulted in more losses for the Palestinians. There could never be a solution without a united Arabic plan.64
‘PEACE TO PROSPERITY’: THE POSSIBILITY OF FAILURE
The Trump administration is too biased toward Israel and ignores the global public opinion. The Palestinians are not alone in this conflict and have gained much support and sympathy from organizations worldwide. Furthermore, their continued resistance has proven that they will not abandon the core issues and demand such as the right of return, the borders, security, sovereignty and right to armed resistance in face of the enemy. The Trump administration may attempt to reduce the Palestinian issue to a humanitarian or an economic issue, yet the Palestinian has always been a political struggle that the world has watched unfold for decades. The Trump administration may attempt to solve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict by means of a tradeoff including a new Arab variable with non-negotiable constants.
The method used is the language of reparation, exclusion, compromise, and imposition, not the principle of a two-state solution, which would lead to widening the circle of chaos. Stability in the region cannot be achieved by willfully ignoring the most important laws passed by the Security Council for the Palestinian cause that are awaiting implementation. The most prominent factor absent in Trump‟s plan is comprehensive knowledge of the region and awareness of the geographical dimension of the Palestinian issue. His decisions depend on short and last-minute briefings of his advisors which makes it impossible for him to grasp the complexities of the conflict and reach a comprehensive solution.
61 Mohsen Saleh, Istanbul, 23 July 2019. Personal interview.
62 Ibid.
63 Ibid. 64 Ibid.
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There is no guarantee that his approach to use Arab influence will succeed. On the contrary, it may actually show adverse results and prompt unexpected reactions as the Arab governments cannot afford to ignore Arab public opinion, especially not in the face of the Palestinian protest marches and the Intifada. There is also the absence of political realism in respect to this solution to consider. The prospect of yielding to the Israeli conditions that impose the recognition of Israel as the principle of any political settlement involving the abdication of pre- 1967 borders and the imposition of sovereignty over Jerusalem makes this plan unacceptable not only to the Palestinians but to the Arab world as a whole. The absence of a clear framework and vision is evident, in addition to the lack of political leadership and the failure to adhere to the principle of a two-state solution. This places the entire administration in a circle of ambiguity. The best that this administration can achieve is a temporary deal that takes advantage of the time factor for other gains at the expense of the symbolism of the Palestinian cause.
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CONCLUSION
The American administration is pushing for the Palestinian side to be bypassed Normalization and this is what we are already seeing. Who would have imagined ten years ago that the Israelis could visit Saudi Arabia. Therefore, there is an excess of Palestinians. And, to deal with Israel and political and economic openness, seeks to abort the Palestinian cause and remove it from its national concept because Palestine is still the mother issue present in the conscience of the Arab and Islamic nation, there is an attempt by the regimes to cancel this issue, that is, we do not care about the Palestinians and what is important to deal with Israel by American orders. As a result of the accounts of the Arab regimes clearly is to maintain its system and continued US support for them, and therefore there is an Arab push toward normalization with Israel to please the US ruler, and this angered the Palestinian Authority because it felt that it was exceeded.
Thus, the Palestinian issue will become the last priority of the Arabs, but it will be a central issue as it has been for the past years. The living forces of the Arab nation to reject normalization, because it means denying all Palestinian rights, denying the Palestinian resistance, and denying the Palestinian right to resist this occupation. Therefore, the forces of boycott of normalization must be strengthened. We believe that the peoples of the Arab countries still have a lot of good because they still consider that the Palestinian issue and the issue of Jerusalem and al-Aqsa and the location of Arab and Islamic Palestine is a central location and was not affected by the degree of alienation or approach of the Arab regimes of the occupying state or America. But this rejectionist momentum must be preserved, and Israel's hegemony and American dominance on the scene must be preserved.
It can be said that the Palestinian leadership's rejection of the "deal of the century" was the main factor in disrupting it and make the American administration refuse to announce it and postpone it. In addition, the Arab countries refused to deal with it publicly. Nevertheless, the position of Palestinian rejection will not be enough to counter the "deal", which was already implemented before it was announced, through Trump's resolutions on Jerusalem and UNRWA, cutting aid to the Palestinian Authority, and the US administration's direction to find humanitarian solutions to the problems of the Gaza Strip, in order to promote Separating it in preparation for passing the "deal," knowing that all this is in line with the implementation of the Israeli plan to Judaize Jerusalem and swallow the West Bank, and devote the separation of the Gaza Strip, in order to liquidate the rights and the Palestinian cause.
In addition, Trump had shown no kind of interest in the promotion of political reforms. It has been observed that the administration of Trump has been closer to Riyadh as well as Abu Dhabi. This has directed towards the increase in the degree of polarization. Due to this reason, some of the key actors have been showing their distrust of Washington. This raises the priority of restoring Palestinian National unity, on the basis of full national partnership, adhering to national rights, formulating a comprehensive struggle strategy to face the major challenges facing the Palestinian cause, and recruiting Arab and international support for the struggle of the Palestinian people to overthrow the "deal of the century" and confront the Zionist colonial project.
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