Runway Safety Nextgen Financial Analysis of Runway Safety Rob Van Eekeren Safe-Runway Gmbh

Runway Safety NextGen Financial analysis of runway safety Rob van Eekeren Safe-Runway GmbH

www.Safe-Runway.com Presentaon outline www.Safe- Runway.com Ø Inspiraon

Ø The issue

Ø Results 2015-2017

Ø Runway safety NextGen

Ø The challenge

Ø Recommendaons

Ø Discussion / Quesons Conclusion Disproporonal costs distribuon blocks cost-eﬀecve soluons and limit future runway safety enhancements. 2 INSPIRATION: Two runway excursions www.Safe- Runway.com

NO grooving and, NO standard RESA………………WHY NOT?

Ø AF 358; 2 aug 2005, A 340, CYYZ, Ø TAM3054; 17 July 2007, A 320, SBSP, runway excursion into Etobicoke creek , runway excursion into road fuel staon, 12 injuries, fully destroyed. 199 fatalies (187 SOB + 12 others)

3 ALARP EASA NPA 2015-18(B) www.Safe- Runway.com

Ø EASA Safety Risk Management deﬁnes ALARP:

Ø “ Showing that the safety risk is ALARP means that any further risk reducon is either impraccable or grossly outweighed by the cost”. CYYZ

Ø Impraccable ? Ø NO

Ø Grossly outweighed by the costs ?

Cost esmates required 4 The Issue: (Safety) Return Of Investment www.Safe- Runway.com

Prevenon has been successful for aviaon accidents in general.

Is this sustainable?

Risk=f [Probability, Severity]

5 Source: IATA Risk=f [Probability, Severity]

Runway incidents / accidents 2015-2017 (01 Oct)

FAA EU ICAO FAA FAA EU AUS FAA

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Conclusion: 2015-2017 MONTHLY COSTS RUNWAY EVENTS 20.0 $ 18.0 $ Billions • 16.0 $ $ 500 Million costs per Month due to runway events 14.0 $ 12.0 $ 2017 CUMULATIVE • 10.0 $ Prevenon 2016 CUMULATIVE 8.0 $ 2015 CUMULATIVE • 6.0 $ New focus needed < -- > 4.0 $ 2.0 $

aviaon growth .0 $ Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: ICAO MONTLHY COSTS OF RUNWAY EVENTS 2015-2017 1400.0 $ 7.0 $ Billions

Millions 1200.0 $ 6.0 $

1000.0 $ 5.0 $ 2015 MONTH

2016 MONTH 800.0 $ 4.0 $ 2017 MONTH

600.0 $ 3.0 $ 2015 CUMULATIVE

2016 CUMULATIVE 400.0 $ 2.0 $ 2017 CUMULATIVE

200.0 $ 1.0 $

.0 $ .0 $ Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Safe-Runway GmbH Risk=f [ Risk=f [ Severity, Severity, Probability Probability ] ]

Risk: • Human Life & Runway accidents in Injury principle survivable given • Damage the proper migaons • Disrupon • Indirect eﬀects

Runway Safety NextGen www.Safe- Runway.com A cost-beneﬁt driven system aimed at reaching the ALARP level of safety.

Requirements • Predicon of future costs of runway accidents and incidents for speciﬁc aerodromes and or AOC holders • Esmaon of the runway accident likelihood • Esmaon of associated runway accident costs • Costs of migaon(s)

If the migaon costs grossly outweigh the future accident costs, the risk is acceptable.

If not, implement cost-eﬀecve migaon(s). 9 Letter Meaning Remarks

A Model needed to predict the likelihood of runway In development under EU- excursions, aircraft operator and or airport H2020 project specific.

B Model needed to estimated the runway excursion Safe-Runway GmbH costs specific per aircraft / airport type(s) specific developed this model 10

C Model needed to predict the level of damage after a runway excursion, specific per airport and aircraft types.

D Model needed to calculate the cumulative future costs of runway excursions, specific per aircraft operator and airport operator

E List possible mitigations per specific aircraft operator and airport operator, include prevention systems and their operational consequences as well as damage reduction system with their limitations.

F Select the most appropriate mitigation and include its costs.

G Predict the effect of runway excursion RISK (function of severity and likelihood) and use the model of calculating the cumulative future runway excursion costs (D)

H Outweigh the cost of mitigation (F) GROSSLY the safety benefit (G)? If so, select another mitigation. Repeat this process until no more mitigation is available (I).

I Select the next possible mitigation

J Apply the mitigation; this will be the one with the highest Benefit at the least costs.

K If (all) mitigation costs grossly outweigh the safety benefit: Accept the runway excursion risk.

www.Safe-Runway.com Cost of runway accidents / incidents www.Safe- Runway.com

MONTLHY COSTS OF RUNWAY EVENTS 2015-2017 1400.0 $ 7.0 $ • Runway Incursions Billions

Millions 1200.0 $ 6.0 $

1000.0 $ 5.0 $ • 2015 MONTH Runway Excursions 2016 MONTH 800.0 $ 4.0 $ 2017 MONTH • Veer oﬀs 600.0 $ 3.0 $ 2015 CUMULATIVE

2016 CUMULATIVE 400.0 $ 2.0 $ 2017 CUMULATIVE • Overruns 200.0 $ 1.0 $

.0 $ .0 $ • Runway Underruns Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec • On Runway events 2015-2017 MONTHLY COSTS RUNWAY EVENTS 20.0 $

18.0 $ Billions 16.0 $

14.0 $

12.0 $ 2017 CUMULATIVE 10.0 $ 2016 CUMULATIVE

8.0 $ 2015 CUMULATIVE

6.0 $

4.0 $

2.0 $

.0 $ OMDB Emirates 521; 3 Aug 2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

11 Conclusion:

• 2015-2017 runway events Costs 2015-2017 runway events Veer oﬀ highest # Injuries / fatalies Costs; # events; # injuries; # fatali;es •distribuon EVENTS Unknown Runway incursions: no fatalies; costs 50 Million $ / Incursion 2% 1% 800 8.0 $

• Billions Runway excursions highest Costs > 3 000 Million $ / 700 7.0 $

600 6.0 $ Veer-oﬀ On runway 35% 500 5.0 $ 37% # events

400 4.0 $ fatali;es Overrun injuries 19% 300 3.0 $ costs $ PPC

Underrun 200 2.0 $ 6% Yr 100 1.0 $ yr 0 .0 $ 51% cost due to Excursions Incursion On runway Overrun Underrun Unknown Veer-oﬀ 1% due to Incursions

Source: Safe-Runway GmbH TRAI 2% costs $ PPC Unknown 0% Conclusion: 2015-2017 runway events NCC 7% Costs; # events; # injuries; # fataliAes • OPERATION MIL Commercial Air Traﬃc highest Costs > 3 B $/ 15% • 1400 14.0 $ GEN CAT 15% General aviaon highest # events & Injuries Billions 61% 1200 12.0 $ 10.535 $

1000 10.0 $

800 8.0 $ # events TRAI FAT&INJ fataliCes 7% Unknown NCC 0% 600 Yr 6.0 $ injuries 5% MIL costs $ PPC 8% CAT 28% 400 4.0 $ 2.632 $ 2.609 $

200 1.116 $ 2.0 $ GEN .286 $ 52% .018 $ 0 - $ CAT GEN MIL NCC TRAI Unknown

Source: Safe-Runway GmbH Costs (PPC) $ Conclusion: 2015-2017 runway events Costs; # events; # injuries; # fataliAes

Hub • AERODROME 33% Regional aerodromes highest Costs 2.4 B$/ 1200 12.0 $ Regional 42% • Municipal / strops highest # events & Injuries 1000 10.0 $ Billions

Municipal / Military # events Strip 11% 14% 800 8.0 $ 7.174 $ FatliBes

5.667 $ 600 6.0 $ Imjuries FAT&INJ Yr Costs (PPC) $ 400 4.0 $ Military 6% Hub 2.365 $ 10% 1.827 $ Regional 200 2.0 $ 32%

Municipal / 0 - $ Strip Hub Military Municipal / Strip Regional 52%

Source: Safe-Runway GmbH Migaons www.Safe- Runway.com

Aerodrome related

Aircra related 15 Aircra passenger passive protecon www.Safe- Runway.com

Availability On market In Military aircra In research Not applicable

16 Aerodrome passive protecon: www.Safe- Runway.com Runway strip and RESA 90% in 300 m

60% in 150 m

Runway end safety area (RESA). An area symmetrical about the Runway strip. A defined area including the runway and extended runway centre line and stopway, if provided, intended: adjacent to the end of the a) to reduce the risk of damage to aircra running off a strip primarily intended to reduce runway; and the risk of damage to an aeroplane b) to protect aircra flying over it during take-off or landing undershoong or overrunning the operaons. runway. 17 Overrun migaons www.Safe- Runway.com

Inadequate RESA Adequate RESA / strip Alternaves for RESA

$ 900 $ 100 $ 1 Billion Million Million since 1999 annual annual saved by costs costs EMAS

18 Veer-oﬀ migaons DONT’s www.Safe- Runway.com

Inadequate runway strip

19 Veer-oﬀ migaons success www.Safe- Runway.com

Runway strip has reduced risk

20 THE CHALLENGE www.Safe- Runway.com

Aerodrome operator 2015-2017 Cost distribuon Why would an aerodrome operator invest in a 2% (new) risk reducing RESA or runway strip if the aircra operator would have the cost savings………..? ISC ü It would save life's 27% ü It would reduce runway overall accident costs ü It serves the aviaon future growth ü ALARP is reached

Human 8% Aircra WHY not? operator 63% • Aerodrome ROI negave • NO incenve / diﬀerenaon fees • Insurance cover • Lack of adequate oversight

Annual number of runway accidents / severe incidents www.Safe- Conclusion: Runway.com • Highest number of reported occurrences in North America and Europe EASA.

Remark: Underreporng likely in internet censored regions / countries

122 14 383 11 19 72 27 45 35

22 Source: Safe-Runway GmbH 1 United States 694 51 Romania 5 101 Kosovo 1 2 United States small 240 52 United Arab Emirates 4 102 Armenia and Georgia 1 Ranking 3 Australia 68 53 Pakistan 4 103 Greece 1 4 United Kingdom 66 54 Angola 4 104 Ethiopia 1 5 Germany - Civil 61 55 Taiwan 4 105 Sao Tome 1 6 Canada 60 56 Brunei 4 7 Indonesia 45 57 Belgium 4 106 Iraq 1 8 Japan 43 58 Ukraine and Moldovia 4 107 Guinea 1 per NUMBER of reported 9 France 40 59 Maldives 4 108 Dominica 1 10 Russian Federation 31 60 Bangladesh 4 109 Mozambique 1 11 Brazil 28 61 Panama 4 110 Zambia 1 runway occurrences. 12 Italy 27 62 Paraguay 4 111 Mali 1 13 New Zealand 24 63 Guatemala 4 112 Nigeria 1 14 Colombia 22 64 Puerto Rico 4 113 Sri Lanka 1 15 Netherlands 21 65 Malta 4 114 Germany - Military 1 16 Alaska 17 66 Aruba / Netherlands Antilles 4 115 St. Lucia 1 17 Spain 16 67 Afghanistan 3 High-Low 18 Venezuela 16 68 Guam 3 116 Iceland 1 19 South Africa 14 69 Jordan 3 117 Luxembourg 1 20 Switzerland 14 70 Tanzania 3 118 Cyprus 1 21 Mexico 13 71 Latvia 3 119 Mauritania 1 22 India - West 12 72 Slovakia 3 120 Namibia 1 23 Costa Rica 12 73 Croatia 3 121 Zimbabwe 1 24 China 10 74 India - South 3 122 Anguilla 1 25 Argentina 10 75 Honduras 3 123 Ireland 1 26 Iran 10 76 Korea 2 124 Mongolia 1 27 Philippines 10 77 Thailand 2 125 Cayman Islands 1 28 Peru 10 78 Dominican Republic 2 29 Sudan 9 79 Belarus, Latvia and Lithuania 2 126 Morocco 1 30 Bolivia 8 80 French Antilles 2 127 Singapore 1 31 Sweden 8 81 Norway 2 128 Moldova 1 32 Nepal 7 82 Ghana 2 129 Czech Republic 1 33 Zaire 7 83 Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan 2 130 Malawi 1 34 Poland 7 84 Hongkong 2 35 Austria 7 85 Israel 2 All costs esmates are in absolute size, corrected for 36 Kenya 7 86 Somalia 2 37 Hawaii 7 87 Myanmar 2 purchasing power and based on open source data. 38 Chile 7 88 Algeria 2 39 Turkey 6 89 Antigua and Barbuda 2 40 Canary Islands 6 90 Saudi Arabia 2 41 India - North 6 91 India - East 2 42 Okinawa Islands 6 92 Senegal 2 43 Malaysia 6 93 Lithuania 2 44 Finland 6 94 Bahrain 1 45 Guyana 6 95 Bulgaria 1 46 Denmark 6 96 Chad 1 47 Portugal 5 97 Uganda 1 48 Madagascar 5 98 Syria 1 49 Equador 5 99 Papua New Guinea 1 Source: Safe-Runway GmbH 50 Bahamas 5 100 Laos 1 Annual runway accident, severe incident costs www.Safe- Runway.com

Conclusion: • North America $ 874 and $ 340 ASIA In Million $, corrected for $ 1607 Highest runway event costs purchasing $ 364 power $ 107 $ 1716 $ 269 $ 318 $ 83

24 Source: Safe-Runway GmbH 1 United States 3.690.919.647 $ 51 Belgium 56.734.683 $ 101 Malta 4.654.486 $ 2 Japan 1.294.134.935 $ 52 Madagascar 55.968.791 $ 102 Zambia 4.615.811 $ Ranking 3 Russian Federation 896.963.276 $ 53 Norway 54.221.218 $ 103 Honduras 4.351.532 $ 4 Indonesia 822.134.683 $ 54 Uganda 52.819.294 $ 104 Aruba / Netherlands Antilles 4.135.407 $ 5 Canada 517.942.876 $ 55 Sudan 51.969.610 $ 105 Mali 3.256.795 $ 6 India - West 468.755.319 $ 56 Ukraine and Moldovia 50.058.015 $ 106 Nigeria 3.045.179 $ 7 Spain 466.051.646 $ 57 Syria 45.504.377 $ 8 Nepal 463.326.503 $ 58 Ghana 43.686.742 $ 107 Antigua and Barbuda 2.727.645 $ per esmated runway 9 United States small 426.832.840 $ 59 Equador 41.885.360 $ 108 Sri Lanka 2.646.685 $ 10 China 411.335.893 $ 60 Austria 40.384.783 $ 109 Chile 2.638.413 $ 11 France 392.797.077 $ 61 Papua New Guinea 39.536.361 $ 110 Germany - Military 2.546.816 $ occurrence COSTS 12 United Arab Emirates 382.010.050 $ 62 Maldives 37.603.402 $ 111 St. Lucia 1.824.706 $ 13 Germany - Civil 283.565.483 $ 63 Kenya 36.563.269 $ 112 Iceland 1.763.418 $ 14 Argentina 267.676.844 $ 64 Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan 36.407.888 $ 113 Luxembourg 1.706.808 $ 65 Alaska 35.594.466 $ 15 United Kingdom 266.188.606 $ 114 Saudi Arabia 1.652.557 $ 16 Korea 266.132.971 $ 66 Hongkong 28.559.245 $ 115 Cyprus 1.634.712 $ 17 Afghanistan 236.937.129 $ 67 Finland 28.340.693 $ High-Low 18 Turkey 236.248.918 $ 68 Tanzania 28.097.838 $ 116 Mauritania 1.427.697 $ 19 Iran 228.405.371 $ 69 Laos 27.419.113 $ 117 Namibia 1.149.122 $ 20 Australia 223.704.807 $ 70 New Zealand 25.938.066 $ 118 Zimbabwe 1.055.449 $ 21 Philippines 213.862.483 $ 71 Hawaii 24.787.968 $ 119 India - East 767.160 $ 22 Italy 213.145.824 $ 72 Bangladesh 23.373.199 $ 120 Anguilla 656.736 $ 23 South Africa 188.827.193 $ 73 Bahamas 23.188.772 $ 121 Ireland 621.676 $ 74 Latvia 23.047.525 $ 24 Brazil 178.746.094 $ 122 Mongolia 520.997 $ 75 Kosovo 22.076.217 $ 25 Thailand 171.047.898 $ 123 Senegal 455.809 $ 26 Portugal 166.905.629 $ 76 Slovakia 20.556.785 $ 124 Cayman Islands 352.768 $ 27 Peru 152.560.807 $ 77 Panama 20.495.182 $ 28 Canary Islands 147.200.776 $ 78 Paraguay 20.266.700 $ 125 Morocco 287.023 $ 29 Colombia 144.360.678 $ 79 Costa Rica 19.827.554 $ 126 Lithuania 223.500 $ 30 India - North 143.692.912 $ 80 Israel 19.016.651 $ 127 Singapore 147.955 $ 31 Mexico 143.174.481 $ 81 Romania 18.693.845 $ 128 Moldova 120.670 $ 32 Guam 124.832.826 $ 82 Sweden 18.326.926 $ 129 Czech Republic 111.940 $ 83 Somalia 16.286.757 $ 33 Netherlands 116.460.680 $ 130 Malawi 1.152 $ 34 Zaire 116.352.434 $ 84 Guatemala 14.378.593 $ 35 Poland 104.404.142 $ 85 Armenia and Georgia 14.129.893 $ 36 Okinawa Islands 98.345.591 $ 86 Greece 13.683.737 $ 87 Ethiopia 13.659.862 $ 37 Jordan 86.599.684 $ 88 Switzerland 13.401.847 $ 38 Bahrain 82.538.907 $ 89 Sao Tome 13.327.908 $ 39 Pakistan 82.425.294 $ 90 Guyana 11.976.396 $ 40 Dominican Republic 82.146.356 $ 91 Puerto Rico 11.587.182 $ 41 Belarus, Latvia and Lithuania 80.702.316 $ 92 Myanmar 11.415.118 $ 42 Angola 76.342.878 $ 93 Croatia 11.214.160 $ 43 Bulgaria 76.209.263 $ 94 Iraq 11.086.991 $ 44 Malaysia 75.279.244 $ 95 Algeria 10.093.490 $ 45 Taiwan 72.612.814 $ 96 Guinea 10.058.709 $ 46 Chad 71.350.987 $ All costs esmates are in absolute size, corrected for 97 Dominica 7.912.359 $ 47 French Antilles 67.117.672 $ 98 Denmark 6.861.203 $ purchasing power and based on open source data. 48 Brunei 66.725.429 $ 99 India - South 6.582.434 $ 49 Bolivia 62.546.685 $ 100 Mozambique 4.836.680 $ 50 Venezuela 60.731.493 $ Source: Safe-Runway GmbH Average costs per runway accident, severe incident www.Safe- Runway.com Conclusion: • Middle East

Highest costs per runway occurrence. , ASIA and (large) Europe-non EASA $ 3 $ 9 In Million $, $ 2 corrected for purchasing $ 2 $ 12 power $ 4 $9 $ 3 $ 1

26 Source: Safe-Runway GmbH 1 Korea 133.066.486 $ 51 Ukraine and Moldovia 12.514.504 $ St. Lucia 1.824.706 $ 2 United Arab Emirates 95.502.513 $ 52 Madagascar 11.193.758 $ United States small 1.778.470 $ Ranking 3 Thailand 85.523.949 $ 53 Iraq 11.086.991 $ Iceland 1.763.418 $ 4 Bahrain 82.538.907 $ 54 Mexico 11.013.422 $ Luxembourg 1.706.808 $ 5 Afghanistan 78.979.043 $ 55 Guinea 10.058.709 $ Costa Rica 1.652.296 $ 6 Bulgaria 76.209.263 $ 56 France 9.819.927 $ 7 Chad 71.350.987 $ 57 Israel 9.508.326 $ Cyprus 1.634.712 $ 8 Nepal 66.189.500 $ 58 Maldives 9.400.851 $ Honduras 1.450.511 $ 9 Uganda 52.819.294 $ 59 Tanzania 9.365.946 $ Mauritania 1.427.697 $ Average COSTS per 10 Syria 45.504.377 $ 60 Canada 8.632.381 $ Antigua and Barbuda 1.363.823 $ 11 Guam 41.610.942 $ 61 Equador 8.377.072 $ Malta 1.163.622 $ 12 China 41.133.589 $ 62 Somalia 8.143.379 $ Namibia 1.149.122 $ runway EVENT 13 Dominican Republic 41.073.178 $ 63 Dominica 7.912.359 $ Denmark 1.143.534 $ 14 Belarus, Latvia and Lithuania 40.351.158 $ 64 Italy 7.894.290 $ New Zealand 1.080.753 $ 15 Papua New Guinea 39.536.361 $ 65 Bolivia 7.818.336 $ Zimbabwe 1.055.449 $ 16 Turkey 39.374.820 $ 66 Latvia 7.682.508 $ 17 India - West 39.062.943 $ 67 Slovakia 6.852.262 $ Aruba / Netherlands Antilles 1.033.852 $ 18 French Antilles 33.558.836 $ 68 Colombia 6.561.849 $ Switzerland 957.275 $ COSTS in $ 19 Portugal 33.381.126 $ 69 Brazil 6.383.789 $ Saudi Arabia 826.279 $ 20 Japan 30.096.161 $ 70 Bangladesh 5.843.300 $ Anguilla 656.736 $ # runway occurrences 21 Spain 29.128.228 $ 71 Sudan 5.774.401 $ Ireland 621.676 $ 22 Russian Federation 28.934.299 $ 72 Austria 5.769.255 $ Mongolia 520.997 $ 23 Jordan 28.866.561 $ 73 Myanmar 5.707.559 $ India - East 383.580 $ 24 Laos 27.419.113 $ 74 Netherlands 5.545.747 $ Chile 376.916 $ 25 Norway 27.110.609 $ 75 United States 5.318.328 $ Cayman Islands 352.768 $ 26 Argentina 26.767.684 $ 76 Kenya 5.223.324 $ 27 Canary Islands 24.533.463 $ 77 Panama 5.123.796 $ Morocco 287.023 $ High-Low 28 India - North 23.948.819 $ 78 Paraguay 5.066.675 $ Senegal 227.905 $ 29 Iran 22.840.537 $ 79 Algeria 5.046.745 $ Singapore 147.955 $ 30 Kosovo 22.076.217 $ 80 Mozambique 4.836.680 $ Moldova 120.670 $ 31 Ghana 21.843.371 $ 81 Finland 4.723.449 $ Czech Republic 111.940 $ 32 Philippines 21.386.248 $ 82 Germany - Civil 4.648.614 $ Lithuania 111.750 $ 33 Pakistan 20.606.324 $ 83 Bahamas 4.637.754 $ Malawi 1.152 $ 34 Angola 19.085.720 $ 84 Zambia 4.615.811 $ 35 Indonesia 18.269.660 $ 85 United Kingdom 4.033.161 $ 36 Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan 18.203.944 $ 86 Venezuela 3.795.718 $ 37 Taiwan 18.153.204 $ 87 Romania 3.738.769 $ 38 Brunei 16.681.357 $ 88 Croatia 3.738.053 $ 39 Zaire 16.621.776 $ 89 Guatemala 3.594.648 $ 40 Okinawa Islands 16.390.932 $ 90 Hawaii 3.541.138 $ 41 Peru 15.256.081 $ 91 Australia 3.289.777 $ 42 Poland 14.914.877 $ 92 Mali 3.256.795 $ 43 Hongkong 14.279.623 $ 93 Nigeria 3.045.179 $ 44 Belgium 14.183.671 $ 94 Puerto Rico 2.896.796 $ 45 Armenia and Georgia 14.129.893 $ 95 Sri Lanka 2.646.685 $ 46 Greece 13.683.737 $ 96 Germany - Military 2.546.816 $ 47 Ethiopia 13.659.862 $ 97 Sweden 2.290.866 $ All costs esmates are in absolute size, 48 South Africa 13.487.657 $ 98 India - South 2.194.145 $ corrected for purchasing power and based 49 Sao Tome 13.327.908 $ 99 Alaska 2.093.792 $ 50 Malaysia 12.546.541 $ 100 Guyana 1.996.066 $ on open source data. Source: Safe-Runway GmbH Row Labels costs $ PPC # events 51 Iceland 1.763.418 $ 1 101 Romania 18.693.845 $ 5 Afghanistan 236.937.129 $ 3 52 India - East 767.160 $ 2 102 Russian Federation 896.963.276 $ 31 Alaska 35.594.466 $ 17 53 India - North 143.692.912 $ 6 103 Sao Tome 13.327.908 $ 1 Algeria 10.093.490 $ 2 54 India - South 6.582.434 $ 3 Angola 76.342.878 $ 4 55 India - West 468.755.319 $ 12 104 Saudi Arabia 1.652.557 $ 2 Anguilla 656.736 $ 1 56 Indonesia 822.134.683 $ 45 105 Senegal 455.809 $ 2 Antigua and Barbuda 2.727.645 $ 2 57 Iran 228.405.371 $ 10 106 Singapore 147.955 $ 1 Argentina 267.676.844 $ 10 58 Iraq 11.086.991 $ 1 107 Slovakia 20.556.785 $ 3 Armenia and Georgia 14.129.893 $ 1 59 Ireland 621.676 $ 1 COUNTRIES 108 Somalia 16.286.757 $ 2 Aruba / Netherlands Antilles 4.135.407 $ 4 60 Israel 19.016.651 $ 2 Australia 223.704.807 $ 68 61 Italy 213.145.824 $ 27 109 South Africa 188.827.193 $ 14 Austria 40.384.783 $ 7 62 Japan 1.294.134.935 $ 43 110 Spain 466.051.646 $ 16 Bahamas 23.188.772 $ 5 63 Jordan 86.599.684 $ 3 111 Sri Lanka 2.646.685 $ 1 Bahrain 82.538.907 $ 1 64 Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan 36.407.888 $ 2 112 St. Lucia 1.824.706 $ 1 Bangladesh 23.373.199 $ 4 65 Kenya 36.563.269 $ 7 ALPHABETICAL Belarus, Latvia and Lithuania 80.702.316 $ 2 113 Sudan 51.969.610 $ 9 66 Korea 266.132.971 $ 2 Belgium 56.734.683 $ 4 67 Kosovo 22.076.217 $ 1 114 Sweden 18.326.926 $ 8 Bolivia 62.546.685 $ 8 68 Laos 27.419.113 $ 1 115 Switzerland 13.401.847 $ 14 Brazil 178.746.094 $ 28 69 Latvia 23.047.525 $ 3 116 Syria 45.504.377 $ 1 Brunei 66.725.429 $ 4 70 Lithuania 223.500 $ 2 Bulgaria 76.209.263 $ 1 117 Taiwan 72.612.814 $ 4 71 Luxembourg 1.706.808 $ 1 Canada 517.942.876 $ 60 118 Tanzania 28.097.838 $ 3 72 Madagascar 55.968.791 $ 5 Canary Islands 147.200.776 $ 6 73 Malawi 1.152 $ 1 119 Thailand 171.047.898 $ 2 Cayman Islands 352.768 $ 1 74 Malaysia 75.279.244 $ 6 120 Turkey 236.248.918 $ 6 Chad 71.350.987 $ 1 75 Maldives 37.603.402 $ 4 Chile 2.638.413 $ 7 121 Uganda 52.819.294 $ 1 76 Mali 3.256.795 $ 1 China 411.335.893 $ 10 122 Ukraine and Moldovia 50.058.015 $ 4 77 Malta 4.654.486 $ 4 Colombia 144.360.678 $ 22 123 United Arab Emirates 382.010.050 $ 4 78 Mauritania 1.427.697 $ 1 Costa Rica 19.827.554 $ 12 79 Mexico 143.174.481 $ 13 124 United Kingdom 266.188.606 $ 66 Croatia 11.214.160 $ 3 80 Moldova 120.670 $ 1 125 United States 3.690.919.647 $ 694 Cyprus 1.634.712 $ 1 Czech Republic 111.940 $ 1 81 Mongolia 520.997 $ 1 126 United States small 426.832.840 $ 240 Denmark 6.861.203 $ 6 82 Morocco 287.023 $ 1 127 Venezuela 60.731.493 $ 16 83 Mozambique 4.836.680 $ 1 Dominica 7.912.359 $ 1 128 Zaire 116.352.434 $ 7 84 Myanmar 11.415.118 $ 2 Dominican Republic 82.146.356 $ 2 129 Zambia 4.615.811 $ 1 Equador 41.885.360 $ 5 85 Namibia 1.149.122 $ 1 Ethiopia 13.659.862 $ 1 86 Nepal 463.326.503 $ 7 130 Zimbabwe 1.055.449 $ 1 Finland 28.340.693 $ 6 87 Netherlands 116.460.680 $ 21 131 France 392.797.077 $ 40 88 New Zealand 25.938.066 $ 24 Grand Total 17.033.858.821 $ 1942 French Antilles 67.117.672 $ 2 89 Nigeria 3.045.179 $ 1 Germany - Civil 283.565.483 $ 61 90 Norway 54.221.218 $ 2 Germany - Military 2.546.816 $ 1 91 Okinawa Islands 98.345.591 $ 6 Ghana 43.686.742 $ 2 92 Pakistan 82.425.294 $ 4 Greece 13.683.737 $ 1 93 Panama 20.495.182 $ 4 Guam 124.832.826 $ 3 94 Papua New Guinea 39.536.361 $ 1 Guatemala 14.378.593 $ 4 95 Paraguay 20.266.700 $ 4 Guinea 10.058.709 $ 1 96 Peru 152.560.807 $ 10 Guyana 11.976.396 $ 6 97 Philippines 213.862.483 $ 10 Hawaii 24.787.968 $ 7 98 Poland 104.404.142 $ 7 Honduras 4.351.532 $ 3 99 Portugal 166.905.629 $ 5 All costs esmates are in absolute size, Hongkong 28.559.245 $ 2 100 Puerto Rico 11.587.182 $ 4 corrected for purchasing power and based on open source data. Source: Safe-Runway GmbH Recommendaons www.Safe- Runway.com

① Evolve to Runway Safety NextGen: ALARP by COST-BENEFIT ① Likelihood predicon model (ACRP & H2020) ② Cost esmaon model (safe-runway GmbH) ③ Migaon(s) costs (Manufacturers)

② Address RISK: a) Runway Excursions prevenon and Runway Strip / RESA b) Regional aerodromes : Accident costs c) General aviaon : Injuries and Fatalies

③ Solve disproporonal problem aerodromes / aircra operators (Mutual Fund?)

④ Achieve adequate oversight

29 Quesons / Discussion

MONTLHY COSTS OF RUNWAY EVENTS 2015-2017 1400.0 $ 7.0 $

Billions

Millions 1200.0 $ 6.0 $

1000.0 $ [email protected] 5.0 $ 2015 MONTH

2016 MONTH 800.0 $ 0041 27 288 2134 4.0 $ 0031 6 125 90 997 2017 MONTH 600.0 $ www.safe-runway.com 3.0 $ 2015 CUMULATIVE

A safe runway is THE core business 2016 CUMULATIVE 400.0 $ 2.0 $ 2017 CUMULATIVE

200.0 $ 1.0 $

.0 $ .0 $ Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 30