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Fatalities Associated with the Severe Weather Conditions in the Czech Republic, 2000–2019
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1355–1382, 2021 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1355-2021 © Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Fatalities associated with the severe weather conditions in the Czech Republic, 2000–2019 Rudolf Brázdil1,2, Katerinaˇ Chromá2, Lukáš Dolák1,2, Jan Rehoˇ rˇ1,2, Ladislava Rezníˇ ckovᡠ1,2, Pavel Zahradnícekˇ 2,3, and Petr Dobrovolný1,2 1Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic 2Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic 3Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno, Czech Republic Correspondence: Rudolf Brázdil ([email protected]) Received: 12 January 2021 – Discussion started: 21 January 2021 Revised: 25 March 2021 – Accepted: 26 March 2021 – Published: 4 May 2021 Abstract. This paper presents an analysis of fatalities at- with fatal accidents as well as a decrease in their percent- tributable to weather conditions in the Czech Republic dur- age in annual numbers of fatalities. The discussion of results ing the 2000–2019 period. The database of fatalities de- includes the problems of data uncertainty, comparison of dif- ployed contains information extracted from Právo, a lead- ferent data sources, and the broader context. ing daily newspaper, and Novinky.cz, its internet equivalent, supplemented by a number of other documentary sources. The analysis is performed for floods, windstorms, convective storms, rain, snow, glaze ice, frost, heat, and fog. For each 1 Introduction of them, the associated fatalities are investigated in terms of annual frequencies, trends, annual variation, spatial distribu- Natural disasters are accompanied not only by extensive ma- tion, cause, type, place, and time as well as the sex, age, and terial damage but also by great loss of human life, facts easily behaviour of casualties. -
The Generation of a Mesoscale Convective System from Mountain Convection
JUNE 1999 TUCKER AND CROOK 1259 The Generation of a Mesoscale Convective System from Mountain Convection DONNA F. T UCKER Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas N. ANDREW CROOK National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado (Manuscript received 18 November 1997, in ®nal form 13 July 1998) ABSTRACT A mesoscale convective system (MCS) that formed just to the east of Denver is investigated with a nonhy- drostatic numerical model to determine which processes were important in its initiation. The MCS developed from out¯ow from previous convective activity in the Rocky Mountains to the west. Model results indicate that this out¯ow was necessary for the development of the MCS even though a convergence line was already present in the area where the MCS developed. A simulation with a 3-km grid spacing more fully resolves the convective activity in the mountains but the development of the MCS can be simulated with a 6.67-km grid. Cloud effects on solar radiation and ice sedimentation both in¯uence the strength of the out¯ow from the mountain convection but only the ice sedimentation makes a signi®cant impact on the development of the MCS after its initiation. The frequent convective activity in the Rocky Mountains during the warm season provides out¯ow that would make MCS generation favorable in this region. Thus, there is a close connection between mountain convective activity and MCS generation. The implications of such a connection are discussed and possible directions of future research are indicated. 1. Introduction scale or mesoscale. Forced lifting always occurs on the windward side of mountains; however, the mechanisms Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) commonly de- that promote lifting on the downwind side of mountains, velop in the central United States during the warm sea- where a large proportion of MCSs initiate, are not as son, accounting for 30%±70% of the summer precipi- obvious. -
The Impact of Outflow Environment on Tropical Cyclone Intensification And
VOLUME 68 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES FEBRUARY 2011 The Impact of Outflow Environment on Tropical Cyclone Intensification and Structure ERIC D. RAPPIN Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, Miami, Florida MICHAEL C. MORGAN AND GREGORY J. TRIPOLI University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin (Manuscript received 3 October 2008, in final form 5 June 2009) ABSTRACT In this study, the impacts of regions of weak inertial stability on tropical cyclone intensification and peak strength are examined. It is demonstrated that weak inertial stability in the outflow layer minimizes an energy sink of the tropical cyclone secondary circulation and leads to more rapid intensification to the maximum potential intensity. Using a full-physics, three-dimensional numerical weather prediction model, a symmetric distribution of environmental inertial stability is generated using a variable Coriolis parameter. It is found that the lower the value of the Coriolis parameter, the more rapid the strengthening. The lower-latitude simulation is shown to have a significantly stronger secondary circulation with intense divergent outflow against a com- paratively weak environmental resistance. However, the impacts of differences in the gradient wind balance between the different latitudes on the core structure cannot be neglected. A second study is then conducted using an asymmetric inertial stability distribution generated by the presence of a jet stream to the north of the tropical cyclone. The initial intensification is similar, or even perhaps slower, in the presence of the jet as a result of increased vertical wind shear. As the system evolves, convective outflow from the tropical cyclone modifies the jet resulting in weaker shear and more rapid intensification of the tropical cyclone–jet couplet. -
An Observational Analysis Quantifying the Distance of Supercell-Boundary Interactions in the Great Plains
Magee, K. M., and C. E. Davenport, 2020: An observational analysis quantifying the distance of supercell-boundary interactions in the Great Plains. J. Operational Meteor., 8 (2), 15-38, doi: https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2020.0802 An Observational Analysis Quantifying the Distance of Supercell-Boundary Interactions in the Great Plains KATHLEEN M. MAGEE National Weather Service Huntsville, Huntsville, AL CASEY E. DAVENPORT University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC (Manuscript received 11 June 2019; review completed 7 October 2019) ABSTRACT Several case studies and numerical simulations have hypothesized that baroclinic boundaries provide enhanced horizontal and vertical vorticity, wind shear, helicity, and moisture that induce stronger updrafts, higher reflectivity, and stronger low-level rotation in supercells. However, the distance at which a surface boundary will provide such enhancement is less well-defined. Previous studies have identified enhancement at distances ranging from 10 km to 200 km, and only focused on tornado production and intensity, rather than all forms of severe weather. To better aid short-term forecasts, the observed distances at which supercells produce severe weather in proximity to a boundary needs to be assessed. In this study, the distance between a large number of observed supercells and nearby surface boundaries (including warm fronts, stationary fronts, and outflow boundaries) is measured throughout the lifetime of each storm; the distance at which associated reports of large hail and tornadoes occur is also collected. Statistical analyses assess the sensitivity of report distributions to report type, boundary type, boundary strength, angle of interaction, and direction of storm motion relative to the boundary. -
Squall Lines: Meteorology, Skywarn Spotting, & a Brief Look at the 18
Squall Lines: Meteorology, Skywarn Spotting, & A Brief Look At The 18 June 2010 Derecho Gino Izzi National Weather Service, Chicago IL Outline • Meteorology 301: Squall lines – Brief review of thunderstorm basics – Squall lines – Squall line tornadoes – Mesovorticies • Storm spotting for squall lines • Brief Case Study of 18 June 2010 Event Thunderstorm Ingredients • Moisture – Gulf of Mexico most common source locally Thunderstorm Ingredients • Lifting Mechanism(s) – Fronts – Jet Streams – “other” boundaries – topography Thunderstorm Ingredients • Instability – Measure of potential for air to accelerate upward – CAPE: common variable used to quantify magnitude of instability < 1000: weak 1000-2000: moderate 2000-4000: strong 4000+: extreme Thunderstorms Thunderstorms • Moisture + Instability + Lift = Thunderstorms • What kind of thunderstorms? – Single Cell – Multicell/Squall Line – Supercells Thunderstorm Types • What determines T-storm Type? – Short/simplistic answer: CAPE vs Shear Thunderstorm Types • What determines T-storm Type? (Longer/more complex answer) – Lot we don’t know, other factors (besides CAPE/shear) include • Strength of forcing • Strength of CAP • Shear WRT to boundary • Other stuff Thunderstorm Types • Multi-cell squall lines most common type of severe thunderstorm type locally • Most common type of severe weather is damaging winds • Hail and brief tornadoes can occur with most the intense squall lines Squall Lines & Spotting Squall Line Terminology • Squall Line : a relatively narrow line of thunderstorms, often -
NWS Unified Surface Analysis Manual
Unified Surface Analysis Manual Weather Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Honolulu Forecast Office November 21, 2013 Table of Contents Chapter 1: Surface Analysis – Its History at the Analysis Centers…………….3 Chapter 2: Datasets available for creation of the Unified Analysis………...…..5 Chapter 3: The Unified Surface Analysis and related features.……….……….19 Chapter 4: Creation/Merging of the Unified Surface Analysis………….……..24 Chapter 5: Bibliography………………………………………………….…….30 Appendix A: Unified Graphics Legend showing Ocean Center symbols.….…33 2 Chapter 1: Surface Analysis – Its History at the Analysis Centers 1. INTRODUCTION Since 1942, surface analyses produced by several different offices within the U.S. Weather Bureau (USWB) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Weather Service (NWS) were generally based on the Norwegian Cyclone Model (Bjerknes 1919) over land, and in recent decades, the Shapiro-Keyser Model over the mid-latitudes of the ocean. The graphic below shows a typical evolution according to both models of cyclone development. Conceptual models of cyclone evolution showing lower-tropospheric (e.g., 850-hPa) geopotential height and fronts (top), and lower-tropospheric potential temperature (bottom). (a) Norwegian cyclone model: (I) incipient frontal cyclone, (II) and (III) narrowing warm sector, (IV) occlusion; (b) Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model: (I) incipient frontal cyclone, (II) frontal fracture, (III) frontal T-bone and bent-back front, (IV) frontal T-bone and warm seclusion. Panel (b) is adapted from Shapiro and Keyser (1990) , their FIG. 10.27 ) to enhance the zonal elongation of the cyclone and fronts and to reflect the continued existence of the frontal T-bone in stage IV. -
The Evolution of the 10–11 June 1985 PRE-STORM Squall Line: Initiation
478 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 125 The Evolution of the 10±11 June 1985 PRE-STORM Squall Line: Initiation, Development of Rear In¯ow, and Dissipation SCOTT A. BRAUN AND ROBERT A. HOUZE JR. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (Manuscript received 12 December 1995, in ®nal form 12 August 1996) ABSTRACT Mesoscale analysis of surface observations and mesoscale modeling results show that the 10±11 June squall line, contrary to prior studies, did not form entirely ahead of a cold front. The primary environmental features leading to the initiation and organization of the squall line were a low-level trough in the lee of the Rocky Mountains and a midlevel short-wave trough. Three additional mechanisms were active: a southeastward-moving cold front formed the northern part of the line, convection along the edge of cold air from prior convection over Oklahoma and Kansas formed the central part of the line, and convection forced by convective out¯ow near the lee trough axis formed the southern portion of the line. Mesoscale model results show that the large-scale environment signi®cantly in¯uenced the mesoscale cir- culations associated with the squall line. The qualitative distribution of along-line velocities within the squall line is attributed to the larger-scale circulations associated with the lee trough and midlevel baroclinic wave. Ambient rear-to-front (RTF) ¯ow to the rear of the squall line, produced by the squall line's nearly perpendicular orientation to strong westerly ¯ow at upper levels, contributed to the exceptional strength of the rear in¯ow in this storm. -
Downbursts: As Dangerous As Tornadoes? Winds Can Be Experienced Along the Leading Edge of This “Spreading Out” Air
DDoowwnnbbuurrssttss:: AAss DDaannggeerroouuss aass TToorrnnaaddooeess?? National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg, SC What is a Downburst? “It had to be a tornado!” This is a “updraft.” common statement made by citizens of the Carolinas and On a typical day in the warm season, North Georgia who experience once a cloud grows to 20,000 to damaging winds associated with 30,000 feet, it will begin to produce severe thunderstorms, especially heavy rain and lightning. The falling if those winds cause damage to rain causes a “downdraft,” or sinking their homes. However, the column of air to form. A thunderstorm combination of atmospheric may eventually grow to a height of ingredients that are necessary for 50,000 feet or more before it stops tornadoes occurs only rarely developing. Generally speaking, the across our area. In fact the 46 Fig. 1. Tracks of tornadoes across the “taller” the storm, the more likely it is Carolinas and Georgia from 1995 through counties that represent the to produce a strong downdraft. Once 2011. Compare this with the downburst Greenville-Spartanburg Weather reports during this time (Figure 3). the air within the downdraft reaches Forecast Offices’s County Warning the surface, it spreads out parallel to Area only experience a total of 12 the ground. Very strong to damaging to 15 tornadoes during an average year. However, thunderstorms and even severe thunderstorms are a relatively common occurrence across our area, especially from late spring through mid-summer. This is because a warm and humid (i.e., unstable) atmosphere is required for thunderstorm development. If some atmospheric process forces the unstable air Fig. -
Outflow from a Nocturnal Thunderstorm
State Water Survey Division METEOROLOGY SECTION AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS SWS Contract Report 242 OUTFLOW FROM A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM Robert W. Scott Meteorology Section Illinois State Water Survey Technical Report 3 NSF Grant ATM 78-08865 Low Level Convergence and the Prediction of Convective Precipitation November 1980 Champaign IL 61820 The project "Low-level Convergence and the Prediction of Convective Precipitation" is a coordinated research effort by the State Water Survey Division of the Illinois Institute of Natural Resources, the Off ice of Weather Modification Research in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis tration, and the Department of Environmental Sciences of the University of Virginia. Support of this research has been provided to the State Water Survey by the Atmospheric Research Section, National Science Founda tion, through grant ATM-78-08865. This award includes funds from the Army Research Office and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research of the Department of Defense. OUTFLOW FROM A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM Robert W. Scott Illinois State Water Survey TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF FIGURES iii ABSTRACT .. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS vii INTRODUCTION 1 STORM CONDITIONS 2 METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS IN THE NETWORK 8 DISCUSSION 19 REFERENCES 26 -iii- LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 Synoptic analyses on 8-9 August 1979. a. Surface chart at 1900 CDT on 8 August 1979. b. Surface chart at 0700 CDT on 9 August 1979 3 c. 850-mb chart at 1900 CDT on 8 August 1979. d. 850-mb chart at 0700 CDT on 9 August 1979 4 e. 700-mb chart at 1900 CDT on 8 August 1979. -
ESSENTIALS of METEOROLOGY (7Th Ed.) GLOSSARY
ESSENTIALS OF METEOROLOGY (7th ed.) GLOSSARY Chapter 1 Aerosols Tiny suspended solid particles (dust, smoke, etc.) or liquid droplets that enter the atmosphere from either natural or human (anthropogenic) sources, such as the burning of fossil fuels. Sulfur-containing fossil fuels, such as coal, produce sulfate aerosols. Air density The ratio of the mass of a substance to the volume occupied by it. Air density is usually expressed as g/cm3 or kg/m3. Also See Density. Air pressure The pressure exerted by the mass of air above a given point, usually expressed in millibars (mb), inches of (atmospheric mercury (Hg) or in hectopascals (hPa). pressure) Atmosphere The envelope of gases that surround a planet and are held to it by the planet's gravitational attraction. The earth's atmosphere is mainly nitrogen and oxygen. Carbon dioxide (CO2) A colorless, odorless gas whose concentration is about 0.039 percent (390 ppm) in a volume of air near sea level. It is a selective absorber of infrared radiation and, consequently, it is important in the earth's atmospheric greenhouse effect. Solid CO2 is called dry ice. Climate The accumulation of daily and seasonal weather events over a long period of time. Front The transition zone between two distinct air masses. Hurricane A tropical cyclone having winds in excess of 64 knots (74 mi/hr). Ionosphere An electrified region of the upper atmosphere where fairly large concentrations of ions and free electrons exist. Lapse rate The rate at which an atmospheric variable (usually temperature) decreases with height. (See Environmental lapse rate.) Mesosphere The atmospheric layer between the stratosphere and the thermosphere. -
Observations of Turbulent Kinematics and Lightning-Inferred Electric Potential Structure in a Severe Squall Line Eric C
XV International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity, 15-20 June 2014, Norman, Oklahoma, U.S.A. Observations of turbulent kinematics and lightning-inferred electric potential structure in a severe squall line Eric C. Bruning1∗ Vicente Salinas1, Vanna Sullivan1, Scott Gunter1, and John Schroeder1 1Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, U.S.A. ABSTRACT: Recent work by Bruning and MacGorman [2013] proposed an energetic measure of lightning flashes based on flash size (area) and rate. The resulting energy spectrum as a function of flash size had a consistent shape, and had an apparently linear scaling regime at the same length scales where a turbulent thunderstorm’s inertial subrange would be expected. They hypothesized that electrical potential was organized by the (possibly turbulent) character of the convective flow. Since then, flash extent has also been applied to the energy available for NOx production by lightning, and the geometric, space-filling character of the lightning channel itself. A severe squall line that moved across West Texas on the night of 5 June 2013 caused extensive dam- age, including much that was consistent with 80-90 mph winds in the vicinity of Lubbock. The storm was samplednear Pep, TX during the onset of severe winds by two Ka-band mobile radars operated by Texas Tech University (TTU), as well as the West Texas Lightning Mapping Array (WTLMA). In-situ observa- tions by TTU StickNet probes verified the severe winds. Vertical scans with the radars were taken ahead of the storm and continuously for one hour behind the line in conditions consistent with the conceptual model for the transition zone of a mesoscale convective system. -
Guidance on the Harmonized WAFS Grids for Cumulonimbus Cloud, Icing and Turbulence Forecasts
Guidance on the Harmonized WAFS Grids for Cumulonimbus Cloud, Icing and Turbulence Forecasts. Version 2.5 13 September 2012 Guidance on the Harmonized WAFS Grids for Cumulonimbus Cloud, Icing and Turbulence forecasts. Contents 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 2 2. General Description of Data ............................................................................................. 2 3. Description of Data Values ............................................................................................... 4 4. Grid Interpolation ............................................................................................................. 5 5. Description of the Harmonization Process ..................................................................... 5 6. Explanation of differences between the WAFS gridded forecasts for CB cloud, icing and turbulence and the WAFS significant weather (SIGWX) forecasts ............................. 6 7. Suggested usage of WAFS gridded forecasts for Cb cloud, icing and turbulence ...... 8 7.1 General principles ..................................................................................................... 8 7.2 Use of the WAFS Clear Air Turbulence (CAT) gridded forecast ........................ 8 7.3 Use of the WAFS icing gridded forecast ................................................................. 9 7.4 Use of the WAFS Cb cloud gridded forecasts .....................................................