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Transportation Plan May 2016

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2040 LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN MAY 2016 AMENDMENT No. 1 SEPTEMBER 2018 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Amendment September 2018 Overview The 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) is being amended to establish conformity and reflect changes in scope or feasibility timeframe to existing LRTP projects being proposed for amendments in the SFY 2018‐2021 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP). The amendment is needed as a result of a recent U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit decision (No. 15‐1115) which struck down portions of the 2008 Ozone NAAQS SIP Requirements Rule concerning the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) as well as the anti‐backsliding requirements associated with the revocation of the 1997 Ozone NAAQS. Areas such as ours that were maintenance areas for the 1997 Ozone NAAQS at the time of revocation and are designated as attainment for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS have not been required to make transportation conformity determinations for any ozone NAAQS since the 1997 Ozone NAAQS were revoked in April 2015 and the recent court decision changes that necessitating a new regional emissions analysis and associated conformity determination. The amended plan will remain fiscally constrained and the regional emissions analyses results indicate that the 2040 Plan and TIP demonstrate conformity to the PM2.5 and 8‐hour ozone standard consistent with the April 2012 U.S. EPA Transportation Conformity Regulations. The amendment also includes a System Performance Report addressing safety performance measures. Fiscal Constraint Fiscal constraint analysis is intended to ensure that metropolitan transportation plans and TIPs reflect realistic assumptions about future revenues and project costs. The fiscal forecast assumptions developed for the 2016 update of the LRTP remain the same but amended project costs were updated to reflect more recent cost estimates as a result of changes in scope or feasibility timeframe. Table 1 summarizes the financial changes to the Congestion Management Projects in the LRTP as a result of changes in the current TIP; all other programs and forecasts remain unchanged. The 2040 LRTP remains fiscally constrained. Amended projects can be seen in Appendix A. Table 1 — Fiscal Constraints of the 2040 LRTP Projects (in millions of Year of Expenditure dollars) Project Type Total Revenues Total Cost Total Revenues – Total Cost Highway (May 2016) 2,783.37 1,971.15 812.22 (Fiscally Constrained) Highway (Sep. 2018) 2,783.37 1,978.84 804.53 (Fiscally Constrained) Source: MVRPC MVRPC – 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan (September 2018) Page 1 Regional Emissions Analysis Summary The Dayton/Springfield Air Quality Region (D/S Region) is comprised of the counties of Clark, Greene, Miami, and Montgomery in west‐central Ohio. Three counties (Clark, Greene, and Montgomery) are designated attainment/former maintenance for the Annual PM2.5 Standard. All four counties are designated attainment/former maintenance for the 1997 Ozone Standard. Clark County Springfield Transportation Coordinating Committee (CCS‐TCC) serves as the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for Clark County while MVRPC serves as the MPO for the remainder counties: Greene, Miami, and Montgomery and northern Warren County which is part of the Cincinnati Air Quality Region. Both the 1997 Ozone standard and the 1997 PM2.5 standard were revoked in April 2015 and October 2016 respectively for all purposes including conformity. However a recent U.S. Court of Appeals decision (No. 15‐1115) struck down portions of the 2008 Ozone Standards SIP Requirements Rule associated with the revocation of the 1997 Ozone Standard. Areas such as ours that were maintenance for the 1997 Ozone Standard at the time of revocation and are designated as attainment for the 2008 Ozone Standard and have not been required to make transportation conformity determinations are required, as a result of this decision, to restart the conformity process. Table 2 presents a summary of emissions for the applicable counties in the D/S Region for the required precursors VOC and NOx for the ozone standard. The results indicate that the 2040 Plans and TIPs demonstrate conformity to the Ozone State Implementation Plans (SIPs) consistent with the April 2012 U.S. EPA Transportation Conformity Regulations. Table 2 — Dayton/Springfield Region Ozone Regional Emissions Analysis (Tons per Day) 2018 2020 2030 2040 Budget Emissions Emissions Emissions MVRPC VOC 14.09 7.99 5.40 NOx 15.86 7.10 4.33 CCS‐TCC VOC 2.74 1.59 1.10 NOx 3.39 1.56 0.98 Totals VOC 22.35 16.83 9.58 6.50 NOx 32.47 19.25 8.66 5.30 Source: MVRPC/ODOT Detailed documentation of the interagency consultation process and assumptions behind the regional emissions analysis is available at: https://www.mvrpc.org/transportation/current‐long‐ range‐plan/lrtp‐amendments MVRPC – 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan (September 2018) Page 2 System Performance Report – Safety Performance Measures The Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act (FAST Act) requires state DOTs, transit agencies, and MPOs to establish performance and outcome‐based programs in several national priority areas. With respect to safety, states are required to set targets for five performance measures to reduce serious injuries and fatalities in public roads. In accordance with federal legislation, Ohio used 2007‐2016 crash data to calculate historical crash trends and set 2018 targets. Ohio’s targets are based on a 1% annual reduction goal for each of the five safety performance measures. Table 3 summarizes the State’s safety targets for 2018 as well as trends and the impact that a 1% annual reduction goal would have in the MVRPC area. Table 3 — Impact of Safety Performance Measures in the MVRPC Area Ohio MVRPC MVRPC MVRPC Safety Performance Measure 2018 2007‐2016 2012‐2016 2018 Target Trend Baseline Target* Number of Fatalities 1,051 1.39% 74.0 73 Fatality Rate 0.91 1.43% 0.87 0.85 Number of Serious Injuries 9,033 ‐2.14% 623.6 611 Serious Injury Rate 8.01 ‐2.10% 7.31 7.17 No. of Non‐motorized Fatalities 840 ‐0.65% 64.2 63 and Serious Injuries *MVRPC targets are provided for illustrative purposes, actual progress determination would be made at the State level only. In November 2017 MVRPC’s Board of Directors adopted a resolution supporting ODOT’s safety performance management targets for the five performance measures outlined in the FAST Act. To aid in meeting those targets, MVRPC continues to plan, program, and fund projects that have a positive impact in achieving the targets outlined in the State’s HSIP report. In December 2019, FHWA will determine whether a State has met or made significant progress toward meeting the 2014‐2018 HSIP targets. MVRPC Safety Planning and Programs Regional Safety Analysis: Since SFY 2006, MVRPC has updated the Regional Safety Analysis every three years to identify trends and locations with high frequency and severity of crashes. The analysis is presented to the Technical Advisory Committee and the Board of Directors to bring awareness to regional high crash locations and trending safety issues. The top 100 priority segments and intersections are highlighted in a report and multi‐cycle repeat locations are further flagged to encourage local jurisdictions to implement safety improvements. Findings from the Regional Safety Analysis are used during the MVRPC project evaluation process to rank and prioritize funding for future transportation projects, to inform target setting decisions for MVRPC – 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan (September 2018) Page 3 the safety performance measures, and to decide the topics of upcoming public education safety campaigns. In addition, MVRPC staff will continue to work with regional partners to improve roadway safety by conducting/funding safety studies, providing crash information to local jurisdictions, and attending District Safety Review Team (DSRT) meetings. Additional information about the Regional Safety initiatives including a Safety Resources Guide can be found at: https://www.mvrpc.org/transportation/long‐range‐planning‐lrtp/transportation‐safety Public Education Safety Campaigns: Recognizing that public education plays an important role in reducing crashes and making the Region’s roads safer for all users, MVRPC develops safety materials and educational campaigns to encourage safe behavior and address trending/rising crash types or behaviors. Past materials and campaigns have included, Bike PSAs, Share the Road materials, Street Smart Campaign (aimed at pedestrian safety), and the latest in 2018 focusing on seat belt usage and proper use of child restraints. Links to outreach materials can be found at: https://www.mvrpc.org/transportation/public‐education‐campaigns/safety‐campaign‐2018 Safe Routes to School: MVRPC staff works to make the commute to school safer and healthier through the Safe Routes to School activities. Examples from the past year include working with the City of Dayton and Dayton Public Schools on their School Travel Plan, to improve priority travel routes for 24 local schools, and classes, such as Girls in Gear, to help middle school girls build skills and create broader transportation options. Staff has also partnered with the Miami Valley Safe Kids Coalition to sponsor bike rodeos and other education events aimed at skill‐building and reducing injuries related to wheeled activities. And finally, staff guided the planning and walking audit activities for the Safe Routes to Parks pilot project at Wesleyan MetroPark, in partnership with Five Rivers MetroParks and GDRTA. Safety Training: MVRPC periodically partners with ODOT and FHWA to host safety‐related workshops and training for our members. Past training opportunities have included complete streets, pedestrian safety oriented design, and pedestrian accessibility workshops. In addition, staff regularly attends safety related workshops, lectures, and networking events. MVRPC Safety Projects MVRPC prioritizes safety when selecting projects for funding with regionally controlled funds (STP, TA, and CMAQ) by using the findings from the most current regional safety analysis as a criterion in the Project Evaluation System (PES).
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