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WRIGHT, OBAMA and the IMPACT on the RACE for the PRESIDENCY May 1-3, 2008

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WRIGHT, OBAMA and the IMPACT on the RACE for the PRESIDENCY May 1-3, 2008 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For Release: Sunday, May 4, 2008 6:00 pm (EDT) WRIGHT, OBAMA AND THE IMPACT ON THE RACE FOR THE PRESIDENCY May 1-3, 2008 Barack Obama’s campaign for the White House remains on track the weekend after the barrage of media coverage of his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright and Obama’s renunciation of Wright. Some of the damage Obama suffered in the wake of Wright’s re-emergence may have been reversed: Obama now leads Republican John McCain in the hypothetical fall contest, but he has lost some of his lead over Hillary Clinton on some key perceptions. This poll was conducted after Obama’s denunciation of Wright’s statements, something most voters think he handled well. By a margin of nearly three to one, registered voters who have heard about the situation approve of how Obama has handled it, and 52% say Obama has been appropriately critical of his ex-pastor. But more see political expediency in Obama’s actions than see a true disagreement with his former pastor’s statements. Overall, voters give approving marks to the way Obama has handled the Wright situation. Democratic primary voters are especially approving. OBAMA’S HANDLING OF WRIGHT SIUTATION (Among registered voters who have heard about Wright) All Voters Dem Primary Voters Approve 60% 68% Disapprove 23 22 Half of voters think Obama’s comments on Wright were appropriate, but one in four voters (and slightly more Republicans) would have liked him to have gone further in his rejection. OBAMA’S COMMENTS ON WRIGHT WERE… (Among registered voters who have heard about Wright) All Voters Dem Primary Voters About right 52% 53% Not critical enough 26 24 Too critical 6 9 Almost half – 47% - of voters see political motivation as the main reason behind Obama’s decision to renounce his minister. Fewer, 34% think the split came mainly because Obama disagreed with things Wright said. OBAMA DENOUNCED WRIGHT MAINLY BECAUSE… (Among registered voters who have heard about Wright) Obama disagreed with Wright 34% Helped Obama politically 47 THE IMPACT OF WRIGHT ON OBAMA A large number of voters – three-quarters – say that what Rev. Wright has said has not changed their opinion of Obama. However, Wright has caused 24% to change their view, and that impact on Obama is a net negative. Republicans are more likely than Democrats or Independents to describe the Wright impact negatively. HAVE WRIGHT’S STATEMENTS MADE YOUR PERSONAL VIEW OF OBAMA…? All Voters Dem Primary Voters More favorable 2% 1% Less favorable 22 21 Not changed 75 78 But in fact, favorable views of Obama have rebounded some in this poll, following Obama’s latest, more direct denouncing of Wright. Obama’s ratings had dipped in the days after Wright’s recent speeches. OPINIONS OF OBAMA (Among registered voters) Now 4/30/08 4/3/08 Favorable 44% 39% 43% Unfavorable 30 34 24 When voters are asked about their support for Obama as a candidate, the impact of the Wright situation is again negative -- but limited. Seven in ten say it has not changed their likelihood of voting for the Illinois Senator. As with personal views of Obama, Republicans are most likely to report a negative impact. IMPACT ON THE VOTE: HAS WRIGHT SITUATION MADE YOUR SUPPORT FOR OBAMA All Voters Dem Primary Voters More likely 6% 9% Less likely 18 15 Not changed 73 76 The general election is six months away, and most voters do not expect Wright’s impact to linger in their own minds. Only about one in ten say this will affect their November vote a lot. But more say it will matter to most people they know. The impact appears strongest among Republicans who are much less likely to vote for any Democrat. IF OBAMA IS DEM NOMINEE, IMPACT IN NOVEMBER…. (Among registered voters who have heard about Wright) On You On People You Know A lot 11% 15% Some 13 29 Not much/none 73 45 In assessing Obama’s ties to Wright, many voters think Wright’s impact on the Senator has been more spiritual than political. Just one in ten thinks Wright has had a lot of impact in shaping Obama’s political views. More – 24% – see Wright influencing Obama’s spiritual views a lot. HOW MUCH DO YOU THINK WRIGHT HAS SHAPED OBAMA’S: (Among registered voters who have heard about Wright) Political views Spiritual views A lot 11% 24% Some 32 34 Not much/none 48 28 Among Democratic primary voters, views are much the same. THE FALL CAMPAIGN Both Obama and fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton lead the presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. This represents a rebound for Obama, who now has an 11-point lead over McCain. In a CBS News/New York Times Poll released just last week, the two candidates were dead even. Clinton’s lead over McCain has jumped as well, from 5 to 12 points since last week. IF THE CANDIDATES WERE…, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? (Among registered voters) Now 4/30 4/3/08 Obama 51% 45% 47% McCain 40 45 42 Undecided/DK 5 6 7 IF THE CANDIDATES WERE…, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? (Among registered voters) Now 4/30 4/3/2008 Clinton 53% 48% 48% McCain 41 43 43 Undecided/DK 3 5 5 Obama now leads McCain among women; McCain had the edge in the last poll. Obama has also closed the gap with McCain among white women – McCain held a substantial lead with this group in last week’s poll. Independents back Obama in a head to head against McCain, but in a Clinton-McCain contest Independents support McCain by five points. However, more Democrats say they will vote for Clinton in the fall than say they will vote for Obama. For the first time since October 2007, more registered voters overall have a favorable impression of Clinton than an unfavorable one. Obama has seen a slight uptick in recent days in voters’ overall assessments of him. His favorable rating is up five points from last week. McCain’s rating is virtually unchanged. OPINIONS OF THE CANDIDATES (Among registered voters) -- Now -- --4/30/08 -- Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable Obama 44% 30 39% 34 Clinton 42% 37 36% 42 McCain 32% 35 33% 34 Some perceptions of Obama’s qualities have shifted in the last few weeks, and he has lost his edge over Clinton on a few past strengths. He is behind both Clinton and McCain on the question of who is tough enough to make the hard decisions a president must. Clinton has been campaigning as the “fighter” and the tough candidate who can get things done - and most voters agree. Seven in 10 think both she and McCain are tough enough to make the right decisions a President has to make. A smaller number -- but still a majority -- says this about Obama. However, more voters (52%) view Obama as the candidate who would unite the country; slightly fewer now say this about Clinton (though the gap between the two has shrunk in the last week). McCain is the weakest on this characteristic. In February, after Super Tuesday and Obama’s primary victories in Wisconsin and the Potomac States, more voters – 67% - said he would be the kind of President who would unite the country. CANDIDATE QUALITIES: TOUGHNESS AND UNITY (Among registered voters) Clinton Obama McCain Tough enough to make hard choices 70% 58% 71% Would unite the country 48% 52% 39% 4/3/2008 42% 59% 45% 2/2008 34% 67% 51% No candidate now has a clear lead when it comes to the candidate who shares the values of most Americans. 60% now say that Obama shares the values of most Americans, but this is down from 64% last week, and from 70% a month ago. Four in 10 of those who do not think Obama shares their values say their opinion of Obama has been negatively impacted by the Rev. Wright situation. And most of these voters say Obama distanced himself from Wright for political reasons and not because he really disagreed with his statements. The Obama campaign has an ad out this week suggesting that Clinton and McCain’s support for the suspension of the gas tax this summer is just pandering to voters. In this poll, Clinton is the candidate most viewed as pandering: Just 34% think she says what she believes, while nearly two in three believe she says what people want to hear. CANDIDATE QUALITIES: VALUES AND SAYS WHAT BELIEVES (Among registered voters) Clinton Obama McCain Shares values of most Americans 60% 60% 58% 4/30/2008 58% 64% 67% 4/3/2008 60% 70% 66% Says what she/he believes 34% 53% 51% Says what voters want to hear 62 43 41 Americans are clearly skeptical of the motives of the public figures that support the idea of a temporary lifting of the federal gasoline tax: seven in 10 think candidates support the measure mostly to help themselves politically. WHY DO SOME CANDIDATES WANT TO LIFT THE GAS TAX? To help average Americans 21% To help themselves politically 70 In fact, many Americans do not see lifting the federal gas tax for the summer as a solution. Nearly half say the tax should not be lifted. LIFTING THE GAS TAX FOR THE SUMMER Bad idea 49% Good idea 45 THE DEMOCRATIC RACE Among registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats, regardless of whether they have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary, Obama and Clinton are virtually tied for the Democratic nomination.
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