V16, N35 Thursday, May 12, 2011 Bosma eyes expanding Dem chairs Speaker will seek redistricting panel; time for ‘breather’ on abortion front By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - Indiana House Speaker Brian Bosma told Howey Politics Indiana in an exclu- sive interview that he is open to us- ing more Democrats as committee chairs, will push for a constitutional independent commission to redraw future legislative and Congressional maps, and said it is time to “take a breather” on abortion restrictions. House Speaker Brian Bosma with his “Winston Churchill” poster in his Statehouse office. It Bosma recounted the chess became his mantra during the Democratic walkout. (Indiana House Photo) board maneuvers he made deal- ing with House Minority Leader B. Democratic walkout, the elevation of Reps. Steve Stemler Patrick Bauer during the walkout, and acknowledged that and Chet Dobis as committee chairs from the opposite he had matured and handled the crisis differently this year party, and how his caucus reacted to new legislative maps than he might have as a younger Speaker. Bosma also said that threw six into three districts and another four who he believes that the 19-member House freshman class will would face a Democratic incumbent. The interview fol- yield future leaders in the Indiana General Assembly and lowed what Bosma called a “landmark” session that yielded beyond. historic education legislation while altering the mapping The Speaker spoke with HPI for almost 45 minutes on Tuesday and recounted his handling of the five-week Continued on page 3 The mystery of Mitch By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - Since I began writing a column in 1985, and since I began publishing this newsletter in 1994, there haven’t been many “We need to make stuff. This is times where I’ve sat at the com- puter, blankly stared into the screen also where a clean energy and found myself at a crossroads for words. economy is being built. I want But today, roughly 7 hours all those new jobs right here in before the most anticipated speech by a Hoosier First Lady in history, I Indiana.” sit unsettled. The Hoosier pundit of - President Obama, at Allison today has been forced to become Transmission in Indianapolis HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

a reader of Tea Leaves. And not his podium, Daniels said, “Guess we from one of the Tea Party tribes. It’s added a few more cars to the freight because of Our Governor, who pur- train, right Brian?” posefully set in motion more than a Yes, governor, you did. The year ago this whole notion that he only thing that could have made it a www.HoweyPolitics.com just might run for president of these more splendid presentation is if Chris United States. Van Allsburg (“The Polar Express”) had It brought back memories drawn the pictures. Howey Politics of my first dinner with him - ironically We were told first things first: Indiana in 2002 at the Willard Hotel in Wash- his business at the General Assembly is a non-partisan newsletter ington, just a few blocks from the had to finish. based in Indianapolis. It was White House - when there was little After months of repeat- founded in 1994 in Fort Wayne. doubt of his intentions. Back then, he edly saying “No” when it came to the was on the verge of resigning OMB, presidential question, sine die was to he was going to come back home to be the glorious gate where Daniels Brian A. Howey, Publisher Indiana and try would cross the Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington to rescue the watershed with his Jack E. Howey, editor “Mississippi of designs back on Beverly K. Phillips, associate the North.” Or Washington. the middle finger We were editor of the South, told a decision or however you would come within Subscriptions want to put it. “weeks.” And we $350 annually HPI Weekly We looked at our calen- didn’t know all dars and counted $550 annually HPI Weekly and the contours of 14 days between HPI Daily Wire. his guberanto- sine die and to- 'Call 317.627.6746 rial flirtation, of night’s First Lady RV1 and Becky address. Yesterday and Mickey and Joel, or his affinity for in Columbus, Daniels teased us some Contact HPI Hank Williams, Jr. music. But there more, “It is absolutely by the end of Howey Politics Indiana was the distinct notion that this was a the month … but I won’t tell you what 6255 N. Evanston Ave. man with a plan. One source told me month.” Indianapolis, IN 46220 Mitch Daniels had a blueprint for what I tell the national and local www.howeypolitics.com he wanted to accomplish. press, “What’s she gonna do? Get up If you look at the arc of his there and say, ‘I’m not going to let my [email protected] governorship, other than his perplex- husband run for president?’” 'Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 ing lack of interest in 2008 Indiana Perhaps she will give Mitch to 'Washington: 703.248.0909 House races - allowing that “Car America. 'Business Office: 317.627.6746 Bomber” Bauer back to the Speaker’s Informed and reliable rostrum - the sense was keen that sources tell HPI that at an elementary there was a blueprint. school groundbreaking in Johnson © 2011, Howey Politics Indiana. Two weeks ago as his educa- County, Cheri Daniels gave an astute All rights reserved. Photocopy- tion reforms were rampaging to a and well-delivered speech. ing, Internet forwarding, fax- finish along with those pesky “social This past week has become a ing or reproducing in any form, issues” in the Indiana General As- riot of political emotions. We were tan- whole or part, is a violation of sembly, HPI’s headlines read, “Freight talized with his arrival at the tarmac train of change at Statehouse,” a play- last Friday. What was he saying as federal law without permission ful reference to his 2004 Republican he wagged his forefinger in President from the publisher. v convention nomination speech. And Obama’s face? when he celebrated the passage of the There was another round of reforms at a Saturday morning press- self-deprecating humor and rumors er, as I placed my tape recorder on of presidential policy at the American HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

Enterprise Institute foisted on us by “bloggers in pajamas” paigns to Daniels disagreed about whether the personal (for the record: I am not a blogger, and shower and dress history of Cheri Daniels would ever be a vulnerability or every morning before working on HPI). We were fascinated even germane to the race. when Gov. Chris Christie and Speaker Boehner suggested The Post reported further: Asked by reporters that Daniels would be a good nominee. There was a degree in the Indiana Statehouse on Tuesday about the uptick in of political lust when Daniels was asked Tuesday if he could attacks against him, Daniels responded, “Exposing yourself beat Obama. “I don’t know the answer to that. to harsh and sometimes cruel and untrue things You wouldn’t go in with the idea it’s completely is not something you do lightly.” hopeless and I see no grounds for doubting that Earlier this week, we learned that tonight a credible, positive Republican alternative can’t the presidential campaign will not be broached. succeed. I think the chances would actually be It reminded me of a GI Joe quote from a quite good.” comic book of yore: “One must learn patience if We watched as Newt squirmed and one wants to win the battle.” had to walk through his marital minefield as he You almost get the sense that Daniels is in- entered the race; just as the Huffington Post terested in how he might be attacked. He raises became the first national news outlet to delve a his head out of the foxhole to see where the little deeper into the Daniels’ marital history (a arrows land before he sprints across the battle- history that I know about but have not sen- field. sationalized, because there is no evidence to date that it Tonight Cheri Daniels takes the stage and a would have a bearing on his performance as President.) plethora of national reporters will be on the risers to gauge HuffPo reported: “In 1993, Cheri Daniels left her every nuance, from the corners of the smiles to the flicker husband with their four daughters and married another of every eyelash. Between Friday and Sunday, when an man in California. She returned a few years later, reconciled initial assesment comes forth from Maureen Dowd to Mika with Daniels, and the two were remarried in 1997. That is, Brezinski, from George Will to David Brooks, perhaps Our in a nutshell, the story.” Man Mitch will have enough data to survey a torturous road The Washington Post reporting today: In exchange ahead. The governor will likely never see a clearer path for for anonymity, an official for another GOP prospect pro- a Republican presidential nomination, and a 50/50 shot at vided contact information for the ex-wife of the man Cheri the ultimate prize. Daniels married, in the years between her divorce and Hanging in the balance is the most precious thing remarriage to Daniels. Other officials at potential rival cam- he and his family have - domestic peace and tranquility. v

it assured that some of the practices that took place during Bosma, from page 1 the walkout did not occur. For instance, us talking on the process and bringing about the most far-reaching abortion phone about an issue or a resolution and it being presented restrictions of any state in the nation. in a way that was very different than my understanding HPI: What was your motivation for having that of it. Second, I said and stuck with the approach that we open meeting with Pat Bauer when he came back from Il- would not enter into some backroom deal to bring them linois to negotiate a couple of weeks into the walkout? back to the Statehouse. The backroom agreement has Bosma: I was motivated on several fronts. First, been the hallmark of some legislative deals in the past and my experience I just wasn’t comfortable. I thought it worked out very well. with the Demo- We had a decent crat leader is exchange. People that sometimes could see we were things are talking. They laid misconstrued or out their position, misunderstood we laid out ours, and having an and we proceeded open meeting from there. allowing the HPI: Bauer’s pub- press to see lic comments after what was going the meeting were on and to report somewhat blustery. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 4 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

Was there a point after he went back to Illinois for a couple primary confidant and adviser and occasional critic. I think of weeks that you second-guessed yourself? more so than at any time in our marriage we talked about Bosma: No. My mantra through the whole thing the offenses going on at the Statehouse constantly because was Winston Churchill’s mantra: keep calm and carry on. In of the continual protests, the continual concern for safety fact I have a giant poster on an easel in my office that was at the Statehouse in various circumstances, and I suppose presented to me by some of our staffers. I said it to our I said a few more times than I should have on a Mon- caucus so many times. I was confident we could stay calm day when we were having our leadership meeting, “Well, and measured in our response rather than engage in blus- I’ve been talking to Cheryl over the weekend and here’s ter. Eventually they would wear out and come home and do where we are.” And I think we were having a debate on what they were supposed to be doing. That’s how it turned the amount of the fines as we increased them. One of the out. members of my leadership team was very adamant that we HPI: Would you have acted in that manner during should make them insurmountably huge fines, thousands your first time as speak- of dollars a day. er? I thought we Bosma: I should have honestly believe if I “I suppose I said a few fines but had been in this same they should spot 10 years ago more times than I should be reason- my response and our have on Monday when we able and we caucus response would should stick have been very differ- were having our leader- with them. ent. I chalk that up to ship meeting, ‘Well, I’ve They shouldn’t the experience of being been talking to Cheryl become a Speaker in 2005-06 and bargaining perhaps even more, the over the weekend and chip. One of experience of being in here’s where we are....’” the other lead- that position and then ers knew this returning to the spot of is where I had minority leader for four landed due to years and the frustra- Cheryl’s advice, so he piped tion of being unable up, “Well, let’s call Cheryl and to forward our agenda see what she thinks.” Every- consistent with what we wanted. So I think I was the right one got a pretty good chuckle out of that. person in the right place and the right time. I was frus- HPI: The day the Democrats returned, your cau- trated throughout the process. The only person who was cus and the 19 freshmen were disciplined and restrained in consistently upbeat was my wife, Cheryl. To our caucus what was a very emotional moment. and our staffs and to the public, my goal was to continue Bosma: I think our caucus did grow tremendously in a professional way, continue to forward the agenda we this year as leaders, to just not responding to outside had pledged last September, and ultimately every item on impetus but thinking about and trying to do the right that agenda was accomplished plus more. On top of that, thing. I think that was especially true of the 19 freshmen we ultimately received bipartisan support for the maps in a in our caucus who had never had legislative experience way we haven’t seen for decades. Top to bottom, I really and wanted to respond to the tactic by Democrats in a couldn’t give this session a higher score from my perspec- way some of us with a little grayer or a little less hair had tive. Of course we’ll all be the judge of that and of course seen before and knew to be the wrong tactic. I didn’t tell there will be detractors for the positions we took. We them what to do. They didn’t demand to take any course changed Indiana significantly for the better, particularly in of action, but I did counsel the best I could and as strong education, which has been near and dear to my heart for as I could that we had a job and our job was not to trash two decades. the Democratic caucus. Our job was to pass our agenda HPI: CHNI’s Maureen Hayden told me a story that and the best way for us to do that was to remain profes- at one point when the caucus turned emotional about the sional, to focus on ideas and policies, not personalities, and fines during the walkout, Eric Turner asked you, “What not to wag our finger in anyone’s face but to return to the would Cheryl advise?” Can you tell me that story? business at hand when the Democrats returned and that’s Bosma: (Laughs). Cheryl always has been my precisely what we did. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 5 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

HPI: After you gave Reps. Stemler and Dobis the with him and Stemler about bringing back five or six of committee chairs, at any time did you reconsider that dur- their colleagues to reestablish a quorum? ing the walkout? Bosma: I did speak with Steve Stemler frequently Bosma: I started thinking about changing the because he remained in the chamber in Indianapolis. We legislative paradigm we’d been in for the last decade with had a number of conversations. I did call Chet Dobis sev- more or less the “he said, she said there’s your team, eral times. I didn’t ask him to return but to let him know there’s our team, let’s stand in our respective corners and the status of various items like the fines before they hap- toss the bomb your way.” That’s the way it has been over pened. I thought that was appropriate. They had agreed to the last decade. It’s not how the process is designed and take a chance. There were, of course, people in their party it’s not the best for Hoosiers. who were not pleased that Over the last four years as they were willing to step I watched the denigration out and try this. So I felt I of the minority, I wanted owed them that much and to change the process, to I was not surprised that change the model if I had Chet left with his team. He another chance to do so. was in an awkward posi- I shared that thought with tion and I fully understood only a few close confidants and I was very apprecia- late in the summer as things tive that Steve Stemler - started looking very posi- and not for my sake - but tive for our team. I shared just because he believed it the idea I had only shared was the right thing to do, with Cheryl about reaching remained in Indianapolis across the aisle to establish and faced a very difficult a different expectation of situation with respect to where members of both par- remaining members of his ties would look to collabo- caucus, with his party and rate and cooperate and not some of the union mem- just compete, to debate ideas “We didn’t draw the maps with a bers. and not personalities. I thought specific incumbent in mind ...” HPI: Was there a prob- there was no better way. This is lem when Dobis ended up in a constantly called for in the legis- new district with Rep. Vernon lative process regardless of who’s Smith? in charge. No one had ever taken the very serious step un- Bosma: I don’t know if it was a problem. We til Organization Day. That step was to turn to my team and didn’t draw the maps with a specific incumbent in mind. say, “I know you’re in line to become committee chairman, We drew the maps that made common sense, that restore but I want to run an idea by you.” After I shared that with more than 100 communities and hundreds of communi- a few of my closest advisers, I shared it with a few more ties of interest. And as you know there were three districts immediately before the election and on Election Day; as it in which there was more than one Republican incumbent, appeared we were going to be taking the majority, I shared three districts with more than one Democratic incumbent, the idea at first with the Governor, and then the folks who I and four or more districts with a Republican and a Demo- was going to ask not to assume the chairmanship role but crat in them. Again, we were breaking the mold. We drew instead to work with the Democrat chair. The response was maps that work for voters. almost the same: dead silence and gasps. It was definitely HPI: What kind of heat did you take within the the right thing to do. It is my hope that despite the difficul- caucus from the six Republicans thrown into districts to- ties this year, we can expand the model even further so gether? that we look in the future to pick the best person - the best Bosma: It wasn’t a surprise to them. We had and most knowledgeable person - to head a committee, discussions with those members and they knew the direc- and not the best and most knowledgeable person from a tion we were working. None was shocked because of the particular party. It was the right thing to do. I hope we can proximity of some folks and where it made sense to draw go further with this in the future. maps. It really didn’t cause great grief in our caucus. Many HPI: When Rep. Dobis joined the walkout, did that of them knew we were trying to do the right thing. They create some problems for you? Did you have discussions knew I had made that pledge very publicly and very con- HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 6 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

sistently for the past decade. The public and commentators ences. I had no clue it was going to happen until it did. were shocked we did what we said we would do. I was aware of what was happening in Wisconsin a few HPI: The district that had Ed DeLaney, John Day weeks earlier and I knew our Democrats were upset. and Greg Porter was changed so that each is in his own They saw the writing on the wall. The excuse they used district now. Was that was when Right to Work a gesture to the Demo- came out of committee. cratic caucus to make I wasn’t shocked, but no sure they finished out one thought it would go the session? Or were the five weeks and set a U.S. maps truly an isolated legislative record. We had a exercise? lot of caucus members who Bosma: We supported that legislation. incorporated several HPI: And you passed suggestions made by far-reaching and landmark Democrat members abortion restrictions. when they made sense. Bosma: Many of our 19 Some of them made the new members had cam- maps better. We restored paigned on life issues. It communities up in North- was a lot to adopt at a sin- western Indiana at the gle time. It was really the request of Rep. VanDen- right thing to do to protect burgh. We restored a life. I know some of it is school system in Western controversial, but I can tell Indiana at the request you if I’m going to make a of Rep. Grubb. We made mistake, I will prefer to do alterations in the Marion it protecting the lives of the County maps as well as unborn. the maps in Southern In- HPI: How much more diana. So it was an open can the Indiana General process. We had discus- Assembly do with abor- sions with people and it tion restrictions without a was all done in public. U.S. Supreme Court case There were changes made “I think it’s time to take a that would overturn Roe vs. and they were all publicly explained. breather on the (abortion) issue Wade? People just aren’t used to that kind Bosma: I think it’s time to of process but it was the right thing and see how the new positions take a breather on the issue and to do and I hope it sets the model take effect and see how they see how the new positions take in the future. I hope this is the last effect and see how they operate. time elected representatives draw operate ...” I don’t think it is a battle that their own districts. I firmly believe needs to be fought every day. that the right place for this to hap- HPI: Who do you see as pen is an independent commission emerging leaders in the freshman that is balanced and can draw maps without some of the class? political concerns that even our open map process had to Bosma: I would rather talk about the class as a go through. whole. We took a very aggressive stance with the primary HPI: Will we see legislation creating that indepen- task to craft a legacy of strong leaders. We have 19 new dent redistricting commission next session? members - the most in almost 30 years. I can look at that Bosma: I’m sure Rep. Torr and I will continue with group and see extensive backgrounds in life lessons who our joint effort to amend our state constitution to allow for will become future leaders. We have PhDs, individuals with an independent commission. law enforcement and public safety backgrounds, people in HPI: Did you know Right to Work legislation would the trenches of small business who write paychecks, folks create the walkout scenario? from the classroom and in school administrations. It is as Bosma: I wasn’t aware of the extent of differ- unique and talented group of people you’ll ever find. v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 7 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

the Howard County GOP's website. "The e-mail implicitly Donnelly gives three-way threatens an independent Lugar candidacy. I don’t think I have ever read a campaign e-mail like this before. 'Support me, or I’ll just run without you.' How deluded and arro- dynamic to Senate race gant is that? In the email, Willkie, the political director for By BRIAN A. HOWEY the campaign of a supposedly popular incumbent senator, INDIANAPOLIS - With 51 weeks to go to the 2012 accuses over two-thirds of his party’s county chairmen of Republican U.S. Senate primary, the Senate race now being ‘duped.’ Coupled with the implicit threat to leave the features two candidates targeting U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar: party (the whole we’ll-do-it-without-you-if-we-have-to-line), Republican Treasurer Richard Mourdock and Democrat U.S. the e-mail is sure to go over great." Rep. Joe Donnelly. The Lugar campaign has also questioned the num- Donnelly officially entered the race Monday morn- ber of party chairs supporting Mourdock. The Lugar people ing with a web video, then told point to the original list on Feb. 22 that listed 68 county reporters that afternoon that endorsements. The list was removed and reinstated on the he anticipated a "strong scrap" Mourdock website with 67 names. "By our survey, it may between Lugar and Mourdock. be 52," Willkie said. As for whether he expected HPI contacted LaPorte County Chairman Keith Har- Mourdock to emerge from the ris, listed on the Mourdock list. Harris, the GOP Michigan GOP primary, Donnelly said, City mayoral nominee, told HPI that officially the LaPorte "I'm not a big pundit. I'm not GOP is neutral, but added that he had personally encour- smart enough to know the aged Mourdock to run. best pathway to this or that." The Lugar campaign is also trying to portray Mour- Mourdock saw Donnelly's entry as bolstering his dock as a Tea Party creature. Mourdock told the Evansville candidacy. "Clearly, they think I'm going to win," he said. Courier & Press, “I have received support from the Tea "You can bet before he got in this race he did polling of Re- Party and Sen. Lugar has painted me as being a wide-eyed publican primary voters to see what it looked like." The Lugar campaign is establishing a war footing. An e-mail from David Willkie, who heads the Friends of Lugar Committee, sought to portray Mourdock as a 2012 reincarnation of Tea Party dreamers like Christine O'Donnell of Delaware and Sharron Angle of Nevada. Both lost Senate races that Republicans thought they could win going into the cycle. "Unfortu- nately, a large number of Republican county chairmen have been duped into participating in the same failed scheme that resulted in Chris- tine O'Donnell and Sharron Angle and cost us two crucial Senate seats in 2010," Willkie wrote in an email to supporters. "If the Republican parties in Delaware, Nevada, and Colorado had taken the Reagan 'big tent' approach, we would have already repealed Obamacare. Mr. Mourdock Tea Party candidate, but I am clearly a Republican. I have has hired the same consultants that brought us these un- been on a state ballot six times, and each time, right next electable candidates, and with Mr. Donnelly joining the race to my name is an R, not a T.” the pattern is complete. I encourage all Republican leaders “I am a conservative Republican,” Mourdock em- to rally around the Dick Lugar flag now; you have been led phasized. “That is what I am.” down a wrong path, and it's time to come home." The Lugar campaign also noted the shift in national Howard County Republican Chairman Craig Dunn coverage from an emphasis on the Mourdock challenge was infuriated by the Willkie e-mail. "If the conservative to Lugar to this after Donnelly entered the race: the seat base of the party doesn’t listen to its betters and do as it’s could be a Democratic pickup if Lugar loses the primary. told, Lugar will run without them," Dunn said in a post on As we've reported before, the electoral impact of HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 8 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

the Tea Party in Indiana is dubious at best, with U.S. Sen. ment. He would have made 18 cents per dollar on legal Dan Coats winning the 2010 GOP primary against three efforts" as opposed to 29 cents on the dollar that resulted candidates who claimed varying levels of support from the from the expedited bankruptcy. tribes. None of the four freshman congressmen have joined Mourdock still embraces the issue. "As treasurer, I the House Tea Party caucus. And Mourdock's first quarter single-handedly challenged the Obama administration’s ille- FEC report of $157,000 was unimpressive, considering the gal bailout and takeover of Chrysler," Mourdock told the Ko- level of support that Angle and O'Donnell received in 2010. komo Tribune Tuesday. In court, his case collapsed, but his The Lugar campaign is also questioning Mourdock's way of thinking did not. “I took this case all the way to the ability to raise money as a state elected official while the U.S. Supreme Court on behalf of Indiana pensioners and all Indiana General Assembly was in session, citing IC 3-9-2- the while, [U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar] never once protested 12 which prohibits "an individual who holds state office" the fact that Indiana’s teachers and state police officers from raising campaign money. U.S. Rep. Mike Pence held were having their pension funds looted. I believe what I did off his gubernatorial campaign until after the General was right and I still feel good about it. You either stand up Assembly sine die and Gov. Mitch Daniels did not pursue or fold up. I stood up for Hoosiers.” campaign funds for a potential presidential bid. A Jan. 26, The Tribune remarks came after General Motors 1996, FEC opinion issued on behalf of a Georgia congres- announced a tripling of profits that topped industry esti- sional candidate notes a similar Georgia law to the one mates (though analysts note that GM is not in nearly as passed in Indiana in 2009. "The Act states that its provi- good a shape as Ford), and Chrysler announced plans to sions and the rules prescribed thereunder, 'supersede and refinance and repay the U.S. and Canadian government preempt any provision of State law with respect to election loans while President Obama came to Allison Transmission to Federal office,'" the FEC letter said. in Indianapolis to herald a new generation of auto jobs "The Indiana fundraising law has never been tested "right here in Indiana." or ruled on," Willkie said. "This 1996 FEC opinion may or "Now, why am I at Allison?" Obama asked shortly may not apply, but it would seem to be more prudent to after he was greeted at the airport by Gov. Daniels. The get a ruling before engaging in what seems to be activity President cited the work Allison is doing on hybrid automo- which is counter to Indiana law. Who knows where this biles, advanced batteries and natural gas fueled cars. "We would go if it were tested? But to date, it has not been." need to make stuff," Obama said of manufacturing. "This So into this increasingly testy GOP fratricide comes is also where a clean energy economy is being built. Other Donnelly, himself a political refugee after legislative Re- countries understand this. We're in competition all over the publicans created a hostile 2nd CD. Donnelly characterized world. We've got to make sure we win that competition. his Senate candidacy as a "chance to work on the issues I want all those new jobs right here in Indiana, right here I’ve been passionate about for the north central part of the in the United States of America, with American know-how, state. This is more about how I can best serve the state. American ingenuity and American workers." After looking at both, I thought I would have the strongest After three decades of Indiana U.S. Senate races impact in the U.S. Senate." decided in landslide fashion, the 2012 version is shaping Democratic sources tell HPI they see Lugar as up to be fascinating, potentially in both the primary and vulnerable to Mourdock, with Indiana Democratic Chairman general. Primary Horse Race Status: Leans Lugar Dan Parker putting Lugar's reelect number in party polling at "35 percent." Mourdock has used a similar num- ber. Lugar sources tell HPI that internal head-to- head numbers show Lugar leading. There has yet to be an independent media poll on the race. Conventional wisdom is that Donnelly's best shot at the Senate seat would be if Mourdock upsets Lugar in the GOP primary. Donnelly said that Mourdock's role in trying to derail the Chrysler-Fiat merger that could have cratered the automotive industry in Indiana will likely be an Governor: Wallace will challenge Pence issue if that race shapes up. “It’s very clear that Mourdock Jim Wallace, 50, stood on the steps of Fishers could not be more wrong about the Chrysler loan," Don- Town Hall surrounded by family and friends Tuesday and nelly said. "Every day, we see people working three shifts declared he is the best choice to continue the policies of in Kokomo and at the GM truck plant in Fort Wayne. The the current administration (Carden, NWI Times). “It’s time course he pursued would have obtained a smaller settle- to build on that foundation that Gov. Daniels and the state HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 9 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

legislature have set and to raise Indiana’s standard so that - for the progress we’ve made in the last couple of years. all Hoosiers can attain the economic security that we’ve But I lost count of the number of Hoosiers who came up earned and deserve,” Wallace said. If elected, Wallace said to me and said, ‘We’ve got to keep it going.’ That’s where he would focus his attention on job growth and manage- I got it into my head, with a cornfield in my backyard in ment of state finances, rather than on social issues like Columbus, how do we keep it going economically. How do abortion or immigration. Daniels, who is barred from seek- we build an even better of Indiana? We are the fiscal envy ing a third consecutive term, famously called for a “truce” on the nation. We’ve got a balanced budget, a AAA bond on social issues fights among Republicans at the national rating and we’re the lead car under the yellow light in the level to keep their focus on deficit reduction. In announc- Midwest on the economy for the first time in my lifetime. ing his run for governor last week, Pence said social issue So we’ve built an Indiana, but the question is, how do you legislation is definitely on his agenda. Wallace disagrees. build an even better Indiana? I believe we do that by liv- “We need to keep the state and local focus here in Indiana ing within our means, embracing policies that create good and not bring more of a Washington mindset to Indiana,” jobs, great schools, safe streets and strong families.” Pence Wallace said. Wallace is president of TWG Capital of India- said he and his family made the final decision to run for napolis, which provides financial services to independent governor last Sunday. “We felt like our calling was closer to insurance agents. He previously served on the Hamilton home,” Pence said just hours after conducting a conference County Council and the town council of Fishers, his home- call with reporters telling them he would seek to succeed town, located about 12 miles northeast of Indianapolis. He Gov. Daniels. “In late January we came to a firm decision grew up in DeMotte and graduated from Kankakee Valley we would make a choice between continuing to serve Indi- High School in Wheatfield before going on to the U.S. Mili- ana in Congress or as a candidate for governor. While some tary Academy at West Point and Harvard Business School. of the early commentary about that (presidential race) was Wallace said he remembers picking blueberries and aspara- favorable, I’m someone who really thinks that seeing and gus as a child in DeMotte and often returns to spend time hearing is believing so we scheduled a very aggressive with friends and family. “I attribute a lot of who I am today calendar of events and meetings in the four corners of the to the values I learned growing up there,” Wallace said. To state in the course of the last three months. We’ve been view Wallace’s campaign kickoff video, visit www.Wallace- Vanderburgh County, Lake, Clark, Allen and everywhere ForGovernor.com or “Families For Wallace” on Facebook. inbetween. We received a lot of encouragement to enter U.S. Rep. Mike Pence was asked about whether he the governor’s race and we made our decision last Sunday would seek to expand abortion restrictions in the state if he as a family.” Primary Horse Race Status: Safe Pence is elected governor, but he emphasized job creation instead during an exclusive interview on May 5 with Howey Politics 6th CD: Bates announces Indiana. Richmond financial adviser and Asked if has Indiana gone as former U.S. Senate candidate Don far as it can on the abortion restric- Bates announced Wednesday he will tion front as a state, Pence respond- seek the 6th CD seat being vacated ed, “This election needs to be about by U.S. Rep. Mike Pence. “Congress- a couple of things that I mentioned man Pence has served my home on the call today, some of which district well these past 12 years; his bears on values, but to me the next message of fiscal restraint and social administration is how do we keep responsibility has been clear, and I Indiana growing? I intend to spend look forward to continuing that mes- the next year listening to Hoosiers, to sage,” Bates said.” business leaders and state and local Last week the unemploy- official of every stripe. How do we do ment rate again hit nine percent that? How do we build an even better and the President’s policies continue Indiana that creates jobs?” to push our nation to the brink of Pence added, “Everywhere financial ruin. It is time for someone I went in the state I heard people from Main Street Indiana to go to express two things: No. 1, they are the Capitol building in Washing- profoundly grateful for the leader- ton as a voice for the people. The ship of Gov. Daniels and other state message I have heard clearly from officials, members in the General As- Don Bates Jr. has entered the 6th CD race. Hoosiers is they are frustrated with sembly - many in both political parties HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 10 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

lifetime politicians bringing no real results. I am a product atmosphere in Washington. “The Washington I live in is of Main Street Indiana and have a vision of what Indiana very different from the one 700 miles east of here, where and America can be. That is why I am entering this race.” Republicans and Democrats can’t get along, and the voice Bates told HPI that he will "build on my U.S. Sen- of the heartland is frequently drowned out by partisan ate run" in the race Coats won in 2010. Bates finished agendas,” Crooks said. “I’m running to make sure South- fourth in a five-man field with 24,664 votes. He raised ern and Western Indiana has a representative who stands around $200,000 in that race, and has no funds left over. up for good-paying jobs, affordable health insurance and "We will do a lot better," Bates said. quality education, not cutting Medicare and shutting down He is the second candidate to announce he will the government on a whim.” Crooks said he will take leave run. Hours after Pence announced his gubernatorial run, from his radio show, “The Dave Crooks Show,” in order former state Rep. Luke Messer said he would run. "As an- to spend all his time traveling the district and listening to ticipation of this news has been building, my wife Jennifer Hoosiers. “I’m in, and I’m excited to formally launch this and I have received encouragement from many friends and campaign,” Crooks said. “I can’t wait to hit the road.” neighbors to seek the vacated congressional seat," Messer said. "I grew up in this district. We live here and raise our 2nd CD: Straw explores family here, so this part of the state is very special to us. Goshen attorney and Democrat Andrew Straw has Without question, the 6th District seat is a great opportu- established an exploratory committee for U.S. Representa- nity to serve, and we’ll make a formal announcement in the tive, the Goshen News reported. According to a release coming weeks.” from Straw, he is considering running for Congress because Messer will have the support of former Indiana of his worries about the deficit and job growth and a desire Republican Chairman Jim Kittle Jr., Republican National to streamline and shrink the Internal Revenue Service. Committeeman Fred Klipsch, and influential financier P.E. “A smaller IRS can function better using technology, and MacAllister. Others backing Messer include Randy Tobias, at every turn it can emphasize jobs,” Straw said. Straw Al Hubbard, John Hammond, Alex Carroll and Andre Lacy. has worked at the Indiana Supreme Court, the Indiana Messer said he believes he is set up well, particularly in a University-Maurer School of Law as an assistant dean and crowded primary field. He lives in Shelby County, grew up as corporate counsel for philanthropist and government in Greensburg in Decatur County, carried Hancock County performance expert Alan M. Voorhees. Locally, he was most in the 2010 5th CD primary that he barely lost to U.S. Rep. recently campaign manager for the State House of Repre- Dan Burton, and carried Wayne County in a 2000 race sentatives candidacy of Dwight Fish, along with practicing against Pence. law from his Goshen office. Other potential candidates include former Con- gressman David McIntosh, 2010 9th CD GOP primary Evansville Mayoral: Debates proposed runner-up Travis Hankins, Henry County Councilman Nate Republican Evansville nominee Lloyd Winnecke is LaMar, former Wayne County Sheriff Matt Strittmayer, and seeking two debates with Democrat Rick Davis. Winnecke State Sen. Jean Leising, who lost to U.S. Rep. Lee Hamilton wrote a letter to Davis on Wednesday, saying, “As mayoral in 1996. candidates, we will no doubt be asked to make many joint "When I saw the first map, I thought, gee I won- appearances over the coming six months. Although these der if they know I planted my farm in the middle of the 6th appearances will be informative to voters, they may not District," Leising told HPI. "I've gotten some calls about it. truly showcase our individual ideas for the future of this I haven't seriously thought about it yet. It comes down to great city. Therefore, in addition to the many joint appear- whether I can raise funds to be competitive. I've run as an ances, I propose we schedule a minimum of three debates underdog most of my life." over the course of the campaign. Political debates are a Sources tell HPI that GOP financiers are appeal- time-honored method of enabling voters to choose their ing to McIntosh to run in the 5th against Rep. Dan Burton. leaders wisely, allowing them to hear firsthand what each McIntosh has an apartment in Pendleton. candidate proposes and why. I suggest at least two of these debates be televised and hope to hold one debate at 8th CD: Crooks files a local high school. I feel it is best if we do not backload Former State Rep. Dave Crooks has filed campaign the debates to the end of the campaign. Instead, I recom- paperwork to run in the 8th CD. He joined Warrick County mend the first debate be held prior to Labor Day. We could Democratic Chairman Terry White. Crooks, a radio station then schedule at least two more in September and October. owner, talk show host and play-by-play announcer, repre- I believe this schedule would grant voters ample time to sented Indiana’s 63rd House District from 1996 to 2008. compare our answers and decide whose vision for Evans- He said he will run a campaign focused on the needs of ville they feel will benefit our community the greatest.” Indiana’s middle class and ending the destructive partisan Horse Race Status: Tossup v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 11 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

McVey bombed the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma Campaign rollouts City. The Lugar campaign decided to plough ahead, but the announcement was lost in the ensuing crisis of domestic terrorism. Subsequently, the campaign never took off. coming in many When Pence remounted what his office called a “soft launch” on Thursday - again a conference call with different ways supporters - more members of the press were included. During the call, Pence noted that the formal, more tradi- By BRIAN A. HOWEY tional announcement would take place at noon Saturday, INDIANAPOLIS - Richard Mourdock chose a tradi- June 11, at the “historic Breeding Farm” near Edinburgh, tional campaign rollout: an event with plenty of supporters which may have prompted some cynical laughter in the of- at a conspicuous public place - the Indianapolis Artsgarden fices of Planned Parenthood. On the conference call, Pence - with wife at his side and a rev ‘em up speech complete announced his new website and noted that there was a with a history lesson, followed by a fly-around. Since 2002, video posted about his long-awaited public announcement. Mourdock has attended more Lincoln Day dinners than just Right after the conference call, HPI got on about any other politician and it remains the backbone of mikepence.com, took a number of screen captures of the his popularity with the rank and file. video showing Pence on various news shows, in speeches, Sen. Dick Lugar did his with a big dinner at the Ritz along with clips of President Obama at Planned Parent- in Carmel that brought in $400,000 and a fiery call-to-arms hood, and other shots and statements by Vice President speech by Mark Lubbers. There was little press coverage. Biden, Speaker Pelosi and Sen. Reid. Mike Pence did it a bit differently. He spent Febru- A few hours later, Matt ary, March and April doing Lloyd called HPI to tell us we about a dozen Lincoln Day were using the wrong video. dinners where he enticed The actual new video was of eager Republicans by Mike and Karen Pence dis- intoning, “We are seriously cussing their decision to run considering a run for gov- for governor. We’re not sure ernor.” When he announced whether the HPI computer he wouldn’t seek the presi- didn’t see the new video, or dency in late January, the there was a delay in posting. It plan was to give the scoop had been posted early Monday to the Indianapolis Star. It just before the first planned announced that it was going call with supporters, but was to have the scoop before it Mike and Karen Pence in the campaign video to supporters. quickly removed when the actually posted the story, delay was announced. but was scooped by Howey HPI didn’t see much Politics Indiana. We confirmed the decision with one of our coverage of the Mike and Karen Pence video in other news informed and reliable sources in Washington. That whole accounts, so we’re not sure if this was a hiccup in the video scenario left a number of reporters around the state fuming posting. But there was a glitch. The campaign made Pence over the playing of favorites, even if the intended scooper available to HPI later Thursday afternoon - about three was the state’s largest newspaper. hours after our weekly deadline - and we followed up in Pence did it a bit differently last week. He Friday’s HPI Daily Wire with Pence saying he was going to announced a conference call with supporters, but word emphasize job creation, not social issues, during his coming leaked out to the press (imagine that!) that he was going campaign. Pence also changed the location of the an- to announce a gubernatorial bid and the Pence staff was nouncement from his originally planned Indiana hometown peppered with requests by reporters who wanted to partici- of Columbus to Washington, D.C. where he had to be for pate. votes. That brought a little criticism from Indiana Demo- When President Obama announced the killing of cratic Chairman Dan Parker. Osama bin Laden late Sunday night, Pence scrapped the But, as Bill Shakespeare would put it, all’s well Monday conference call to supporters, fearing the Okla- that ends well. homa City effect. This occurred to Dick Lugar’s presiden- This brings us to Joe Donnelly. His burgeoning tial campaign kickoff in April 1995 when, just before the campaign leaked a weekend story to the Associated Press big staged event at Indiananapolis’ City Market, Timothy in Washington that he had decided to seek the Lugar Sen- HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 12 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

ate seat, which was the second worst kept secret only to individual news interviews with local media and a Lincoln Pence’s decision to run for governor. There was little infor- Day dinner tour at the county level. mation. I e-mailed chief of staff Joel Elliott to ask if there Next up on the rollout list will be former House would be an event or a presser? Elliott quickly responded Speaker John Gregg, who is following the early Pence that information would come early Monday morning. game plan by doing Jefferson-Jackson Day dinners around Viola! At 5:29 a.m. Monday the campaign posted the state and Indianapolis township Democratic clubs in a a YouTube video of Donnelly announcing that he would “listening tour” mode. HPI got the scoop in April that he seek the Senate had formed an exploratory seat. It was a finely committee. A formal Gregg produced video of announcement - format Donnelly talking with unknown at this point - is constituents, vet- expected shortly. There’s erans, and touring also Senate Minority Leader factories. He said Vi Simpson, who kicked off why he was running her first gubernatorial cam- and asked people for paign in 2003 with a rally their support. There of supporters at the State- was a brief family house and a speech there. bio. HPI was the first Lugar kicked off news outlet to post his 2006 campaign with a quotes and photos Statehouse event where he from the video. delivered the ballot petitions By mid- outside the secretary of morning, the Don- state’s office thronged by nelly campaign Treasurer Richard Mourdock did a more traditional rollout at the Indianapolis volunteers and supporters. announced a 2 p.m. Artsgarden in February. (HPI Photo by Brian A. Howey) It was the defining image conference call of his campaign after Indi- that drew 25 or 30 ana Democrats did not field Indiana and national reporters and talking heads. Donnelly a candidate against him. answered more than a dozen questions ranging from the No one has yet mimicked Gov. Mitch Daniels, who political to public policy. did a year-long listening tour in 2003 and 2004 aboard WISH-TV’s Jim Shella asked Donnelly where he was RV1, hitting dozens of little burgs and villes around the and why he decided to announce via social media. “I’m in state, many of which hadn’t seen a real live governor South Bend today,” the congressman said. “I am heading candidate in decades. He then did his official kickoff out- back to Washington tonight, which is part of the reason I side of Hinkle Fieldhouse, heavily using the Milan Miracle did web video. By doing it this way, I could have as much theme. In the Evan Bayh era, the “fly-around” to airports time as needed.” in Evansville, Terre Haute, South Bend, Fort Wayne, Indy, Donnelly then tried to placate Shella, who has Jeffersonville and Gary was the preferred mode. Gov. Frank spent most of his broadcast career covering more tradition- O’Bannon did a mixture of fly-around to drive-in-hops to al Mourdock-style rollouts. “I certainly promise you, Jim, union halls and rallies. as soon as I can get down to Indy, I’ll spend as much time I did the final leg in RV1 in October 2008 dur- with you as you want,” Donnelly said. ing the Daniels reelection campaign, and he headed to Shella was fine with that. His story on Donnelly Milan where he met with Bobby Plump and the other 1954 appeared in the second segment of WISH-TV’s 5 p.m. news basketball champions at the Reservation Restaurant,where cast at 5:21 with B-roll, clips from the campaign video, au- the pie was absolutely scrumptious. On the way back to dio from the conference call, and reaction from the major Indianapolis, Daniels expressed a desire to see candidates state party chairs. So it appears that Donnelly’s rollout will from either party “steal” his RV platform idea. The RV is an be more gradual, with a cascading number of interviews excellent Hoosier symbol of manufacturing prowess. with media as he hits what he referred to several times, the To date, no one has followed the trail that Daniels “four corners of the state.” blazed across the fruited plains and amber waves of grain Former state rep Jackie Walorski announced for that resulted in the defeat of a sitting governor in 2004 and Donnelly’s seat in March, using her former employer - she a 58 percent win in the face of the Obama juggernaut in was a reporter for WSBT-TV - as her platform, followed by 2008. v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 13 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

the Republicans actually have to nominate someone to run Assessing the political against the President. Simply put, with potential divisions for the GOP nominations, anyone who doesn’t take Donnelly’s entrance challenges to Sen. Lugar into the Senate race seriously has not been paying atten- By MARK SOUDER tion to political reality. Match-ups aren’t against a “field,” FORT WAYNE - Senator Richard Lugar is seeking a they are one-on-one. It is not hard to imagine a significant historic seventh term in the United States Senate. He’s al- number disgruntled conservatives skipping the Senate ready served 36 years in the Senate, and would be 86 after ballot if Lugar is renominated, or enough Lugar partisans the completion of a seventh term. His success, unopposed voting for Donnelly to tip the fall race. in his last election when he was 74, suggests that Indiana While Senator Lugar’s path to the renomination will is not the poster state for term limits. not be easy, he has the following advantages: Congressman Joe Donnelly of South Bend an- 1. Money. He will have a decided advantage even nounced this week that he will seek the Democrat nomina- if national Tea Party money pours in. That is especially tion. important utilizing all TV markets that reach Indiana voters. Donnelly is similar in views 2. Party endorsements don’t mean what they to the 2010 Democrat nominee used to. It is extremely significant that Mourdock has over for Senate, then Congressman 75 percent of the county chairs endorsements. It demon- Brad Ellsworth. It is doubtful that strates an extraordinary lack of loyalty by his own party to conservative enthusiasm can our longest-serving Senator. At the same time, it is unclear match 2010 and it is certain that how many people county chairs influence. Without pa- Democrat turnout in a Presidential tronage, the position is more of a thankless one given to year will exceed 2010. dedicated hard workers rather than powerful bosses. So Donnelly starts with a 3. Mourdock’s support is from smaller coun- higher base vote than did Ells- ties, not the vote-rich larger counties. The Indianapolis TV worth. It is also generally per- market reaches around 60 percent of Republican primary ceived that Senator Lugar is likely voters. John Mutz, when he won the gubnatorial nomina- to have a more difficult primary tion years ago, had the minimum standard of winning than did former Senator Coats in Indianapolis big, running close in the other large counties 2010. Coats, once his campaign got rolling and past the and losing the rest. He successfully implemented a victory “interloper choice of political insiders” cruised through the with perhaps the smallest number of counties ever carried. primary. Incumbent Senator Evan Bayh blinked when Con- The key is to win where the votes are. gressman Mike Pence considered the race, but then – when 4. There are mixed signs of anti-incumbent he surveyed a weak Republican field – stayed in the race. sentiment. It is not clear that the Indianapolis region or When Coats announced he was running, Bayh beat a hasty the second largest GOP region (Fort Wayne) have much retreat. “throw out our Republican incumbents” sentiment. Lugar is running against incumbent Indiana State 5. The Tea Party movement is active and com- Treasurer Richard Mourdock. Mourdock won statewide mitted but does not seem to have the widespread base that elections in 2006 and 2010, so voters may be more famil- it had in 2010. That could change, but if it doesn’t, Mour- iar with his name compared to the candidates who op- dock will have trouble topping the traditional conservative posed Coats. Also, in the Senate primary in 2010, all the challenger’s one-third of the vote. candidates together – including Coats – spent less than 6. Lugar networks are everywhere. Bob Thomas did in the 3rd district congressional primary The conservatives can produce a solid one-third against me. of a vote against Lugar, and perhaps add some rural areas The biggest variable going against Donnelly is that he has ignored. But the Republican primary will likely the reverse side of his biggest strength: President Obama be decided on a single variable: age. Swing voters, espe- will head the Democrat ticket. Whatever recovery Obama cially younger voters, are increasingly wanting a new gen- makes in the polls, it is unlikely that he will carry Indiana eration of leadership. They may not favor term limits, but a second time. If Mitch Daniels is the Republican nominee they do not view dying in office as the alternative. Lugar at for President, it will be unfortunate for Donnelly that he 80 may be smarter than almost every other Senator at 50. only had until June 30 to remove his name from the ballot. But still, age 80 is could likely give pause to almost every On the other hand, the good news for Democrats is that voter. Is this really the way we believe politics should work? If Mourdock pursues an agenda that is too con- HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 14 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

servative, he can fire up the base but drive away the very Democrat. swing vote he needs to topple Indiana’s longest-serving Donnelly clearly is banking on a divided Republican Senator. The balance required between attracting the Party, wounded by a brutal primary. Maybe, but it’s prob- conservative activists and national conservative money, ably not enough to swing Indiana back to the Democrats yet winning statewide in a Republican Party that is not as regardless of whether Mourdock or Lugar wins. conservative as it is perceived to be, is the Mourdock chal- v lenge. If Donnelly believes that his old congressional Souder is a former Republican congressman from district is not winnable with redistricting, then it presents Indiana. a pretty grim view for Democrats statewide. Republicans already represent six of the nine congressional districts, or seven with the 2nd. Against those odds even if every registered person in Lake County voted, twice, and the cemeteries emptied out, you probably couldn’t win as a

candidate - so unimpressive that many top Republicans in Donnelly bets Washington would prefer someone else despite the close- ness of the last election. Donnelly survived the Republican wave in 2010 in large part because of Walorski’s weak- against Lugar nesses. With Republicans struggling to find a competitive By CHRIS SAUTTER presidential candidate, 2012 is bound to be a better year WASHINGTON - Who can blame Indiana Congress- for Democrats than 2010. man Joe Donnelly for deciding it’s “up or out?” He has Secondly, Senator Lugar is not dead yet. to be frustrated. Democrats are the minority party in the Political pundits in Washington and Indiana and Tea Party U.S. House of Representatives. And, Republicans re-drew activists may have begun to write him off. But Lugar is boundaries that will make re-election more difficult than demonstrating genuine resilience. He has already put away it already was in a tough swing $3 million, out-raising Donnelly three-to-one, and out- district. raising his likely primary opponent Richard Mourdock by a Donnelly barely won in ratio of six-to-one. His top political advisors, Mark Helmke 2010, eking out victory by just a and David Willkie, are sharp and experienced and will have little more than 2,500 votes in a Lugar, the former Rhodes Scholar and Eagle Boy Scout, decidedly more favorable district. well prepared for the challenge. Yet, Donnelly is taking Could it be that Donnelly and the political world a big chance. The three-term have counted Lugar out too soon? Hoosier Democrat is betting that Indiana State Treasurer Richard Mourdock was a race for the U.S. Senate seat wise to jump into the Republican primary race early. Mour- currently held by six-term incum- dock knows that some Lugar detractors within the party bent Richard Lugar gives him a like State Senator Mike Delph will be reluctant to make it a better shot at winning in 2012 multi-candidate contest after what occurred just last year. than running for re-election in a Dan Coats survived the 2010 Republican primary because redrawn 2nd district. It is not so his four opponents divided up the anti-establishment vote. clear that is the case. It remains to be seen how good a candidate For one thing, Donnelly would still stand a good Mourdock will be at this level. He has not had a tough elec- chance of winning in the new 2nd congressional district in tion since Frank McCloskey defeated him twice in races for 2012. The district is hardly worse than the district Tim Ro- Congress. And, Mourdock has many serious liabilities as a emer won in 1990, defeating five-term Republican incum- candidate, not the least of which is his opposition to the bent John Hiler. That district was drawn by Republicans in “bailout” of Chrysler, federal spending that has proven to 1981 to be safe for Hiler. be popular because it saved thousands of Hoosier jobs. Further, Donnelly’s 2010 opponent and the Too often, candidates are more focused on the presumptive 2012 Republican nominee, former state Rep- last race or the last cycle than the next one. Mourdock resentative Jackie Walorski, is not a particularly impressive hopes to ride the same anti-moderate fervor that pushed HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 15 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

Delaware’s Mike Castle, Utah’s Bob Bennett, Pennsylvania’s can win state-wide, but only when they offer something Arlene Specter, and Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski out of the special. Think the youthful and energetic Birch and Evan Republican Party or to early retirement. Bayh, or the grandfatherly Frank O’Bannon. It is not But Tea Party strength seems to have crested enough to run on the generic Democratic message. Last and, besides, Indiana has not proven to be the hotbed year’s U.S. Senate Democratic nominee Brad Ellsworth of Tea Party activism that other states have. Lugar, with struggled not just because it was an awful year for Demo- solidly conservative credentials, may not be as anathema crats, but also because he never articulated a message that to Republican primary voters in 2012 as were last year’s resonated with voters. Ellsworth never gave voters more casualties, most of whom were much more moderate than than the same old, same old. Lugar. Joe Donnelly is likeable and has demonstrated Lugar is displaying confidence. He has already he is a good politician who can win in difficult environ- begun to define Donnelly, who is not well known outside ments. He can clearly beat Mourdock but his chances his northern Indiana base. He has not been afraid to draw against Lugar would not seem to be promising. Even to distinctions with the Tea Party. Rank-and-file Republicans prevail over the flawed Richard Mourdock, Donnelly will have always been fond of and loyal to Lugar. But this is not need to demonstrate he is running for U.S. Senate for more your grandfather’s Republican Party, and Lugar’s willingness important reasons than his congressional district was ger- to stand up to the Tea Party may not be something that will rymandered. be rewarded as it might have in the past. Sautter is a Democratic consultant based in Wash- Indiana is a Republican-leaning state. Democrats ington. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 16 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

forecast of income tax revenue increased by $154 million The revenue forecast in 2012 and by $155 million in 2013. That’s $662 million right there. Add in the extra revenue for fiscal 2011, some slight adjustments in other taxes and a downward revision and the state budget in riverboat revenue, and the total increase is $762 million. By LARRY DeBOER What will we do with this money? WEST LAFAYETTE - After years of gloom in the The governor immediately announced an added Indiana State House, this spring saw a ray of light. The $150 million for K-12 education in the next biennium, partly April forecast increased revenue projections for the coming to fund grants for all-day kindergarten. He also warned that biennium budget. That’s the first time this has happened the new revenues were “no reason to abandon caution.” since a tiny increase in April 2005. (You can see the projec- But any lobbyist worth his or her paycheck tions on the Indiana State Budget Agency’s website, www. surely spent the last two weeks of April asking legislators in.gov/sba/2563.htm.) for just a little piece of all that added money. The extra Everyone expected an revenue also may smooth over some small differences upward revision. We knew that between the House and Senate versions of the proposed revenues were running ahead of budget. the December forecast for the The outlines of the next biennium budget are pret- first nine months of fiscal 2011. ty clear. The improved revenue picture in 2011 will allow We’re up by $115 million. That’s us to start fiscal 2012 with balances around $800 million, money in the bank - literally. which is 6 percent of the budget. That’s higher than the So (I figured), the revision rock-bottom minimum of 5 percent that Indiana has always would start from a higher 2011 managed to keep. level and increase 3.7 percent In 2012 the budget will be approximately balanced, per year for 2012 and 2013. with current revenues covering current appropriations. In That was the average forecast 2013 the state will run a surplus, and this will allow bal- increase for those years in the ances to increase. By the end of the biennium in June 2013 December forecast. The added we should have a billion dollars, between 7 and 8 percent revenue would total about $400 of the budget, in the bank. Considering where we thought million for the three fiscal years. we’d be as of December - balances continuing near 5 per- Instead, the forecast added $762 million. The rea- cent for the whole biennium - that’s an achievement. son was a more optimistic forecast for the Indiana econo- Let’s not get too giddy, though. The coming biennium will my. see the tightest budget in memory. Spending will increase Indiana hires Global Insight to do its economic by less than 2 percent per year, just enough to cover antici- forecasting. In April, Global Insight projected that Indiana pated inflation. income will grow 12.9 percent from fiscal years 2010 to Appropriations will actually fall. They’ll be 2013. Back in December, it projected a growth of only 10.8 lower in 2013 than they were in 2009. Appropriations are percent. Global Insight thinks the Indiana unemployment the planned spending in the budget. In the last biennium rate will drop to 8.2 percent by 2013. The projection had revenues fell short of projections, so spending was cut well been 9.2 percent. The company also has the stock market below the planned amounts. In effect, the new budget rising an extra 7.1 percent, and U.S. gross domestic prod- incorporates those spending cuts into the plan for the next uct up by about 1 percent over December’s projection. biennium. All of these higher economic projections enter The budget will be tight. We’re still in an economic into the state’s revenue formulas and increase revenue hole. But the revenue forecast says that over the next two v forecasts. More Indiana income growth means more years, we’ll start to climb out. consumer spending, which raises sales tax revenue. More income growth means more income tax revenue on wages Prof. DeBoer teachers agriculture economics at and salaries. A lower unemployment rate should inspire Purdue University. more consumer confidence, which will increase spending and sales tax revenue some more. Higher GDP growth and a bigger rise in the stock market should increase income taxes on capital gains. So, the forecast of sales tax revenue increased by $181 million in 2012, and by $172 million in 2013. The HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 17 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

than any of the calculations based on the phantom regis- Buttigieg essentially tration totals. With four serious contenders for the Democratic is mayor elect nomination, most projections were that the winner would be the one getting a little over a third of the vote. By JACK COLWELL Buttigieg got 55 percent. SOUTH BEND - While it’s not technically correct to Nobody, including Buttigieg, thought as Election refer to Pete Buttigieg, landslide winner of South Bend’s Day dawned that he would win that big. Democratic mayoral nomination, as mayor-elect, he really But he had run an almost letter-perfect cam- is. paign since entering the race with scant name recogni- Republican mayoral nomi- tion and most of those recognizing it not knowing how to nee Wayne Curry will and should pronounce it. take the fall campaign seriously, Steadily, even if slowly at first, he began to get raising important issues, and known and impress those he met, including some big con- Buttigieg will not just take it all tributors. He raised far more in campaign funding than any for granted. of the other contenders. But look at it this way: Buttigieg also built a superior organization for iden- Buttigieg, the impressive tifying potential supporters and getting them to go to the 29-year-old Harvard grad and polls. Oxford Rhodes Scholar, not only Key person in those efforts was Mike Schmuhl, won big with Democratic voters Buttigieg’s campaign manager and friend going back to the but also got far more Republican days when they both were students at St. Joseph’s High votes than Curry. School. Schmuhl had just ended serving as campaign man- Curry got 655 votes in ager for Congressman Joe Donnelly and his survival of the what appears to be the lowest Republican primary turnout 2010 Republican tsunami. since at least back to cars replacing horses on city streets. While they listened politely to suggestions from One skilled election numbers cruncher estimated people more experienced in local politics, sometimes fol- that Buttigieg got as many as 3,000 votes of Republicans lowing suggestions, sometimes declining to pursue possible who crossed over to have a voice in the Democratic pri- endorsements that could cut both ways, they followed their mary - the real election of a new mayor. basic game plan. There’s no precise way of determining this. Buttigieg and Schmuhl both say a key early en- But precinct by precinct totals shows that in Repub- dorsement came from City Clerk John Voorde, who had lican areas of the city, particularly in the 5th District, long been a supporter of Mike Hamann, one of the top con- represented by a Republican council member, the Republi- tenders for the nomination. They mailed out a letter from can primary total was way down, the Democratic primary Voorde to older voters long familiar with the Voorde name. total was way up, and Buttigieg won big. Other defections came. Momentum came. In the last comparable city election, in 2007, there Endorsements came from the Chamber of Com- were 2,531 votes cast in the Republican mayoral primary, merce, a factor in those cross-overs; from The Tribune, a 6,043 in the Democratic mayoral primary. Neither side factor in undecided voters deciding for Buttigieg, and from had thrilling contests, nothing like the focus this time on the firefighters, a factor in capturing the Democratic base. selection of a new mayor in a highly contested Democratic Finally, the contest had come down to Buttigieg nomination race. and state Rep. Ryan Dvorak. Dvorak, without building up Totals this time: Republicans, 995; Democrats, to it, turned to negative TV ads and mailings in the closing 13,957. days. It backfired. Buttigieg responded quickly, lamenting That Democratic primary turnout, enhanced the negative turn and saying that political attacks “don’t by the Republican cross-overs, was much larger than most create jobs, improve schools, reduce crime or fix vacant political insiders were predicting. Some predictions were for houses.” a turnout as low as 8,000. The median figure was about Buttigieg had the campaign resources to carry that 11,000. message in TV ads and through the mail. Dvorak slipped to Because voter registration figures are way out of third. And Buttigieg became, well, actually, mayor-elect. v whack with reality, including many names of people no longer residing in the city, there is no way to figure an ac- Colwell has covered Indiana politics over five de- curate percentage of voter turnout. But it was much higher cades for the Souh Bend Tribune. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 18 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

the past three decades, Indiana school corporations have High schools and been reduced to dependencies of the state. The state sets standards, dictates curriculum, denies adequate funding and licenses unprepared teachers. economic development Where will the money come from to support more By MORTON J. MARCUS innovation in our schools? One source could be the local INDIANAPOLIS - From time-to-time, I am asked: Economic Development Income Tax (EDIT). But the money “What is the best investment for Indiana’s economic devel- should be used to supplement specific programs and not opment”? The answer: Invest in our high school-age young dumped into the schools’ general funds. In effect, those men and women. local officials who control the allocation of EDIT monies High schools already exist. No new structures or should buy specific services from the schools. organizations are needed. By and large they are staffed For example, most schools have cut back or elimi- with experts at reaching young people. Mostly, they lack nated education in art, music and theater. The results go the mission, the authority and the re- beyond the education of students. In many communities, sources to enable children to become high school programs provide entertainment and social en- responsible adults. richment for all citizens, whether or not they have children The local high school in school. does not see itself, nor is it seen, High schools can offer education for adults in as the community’s most important vocational and technical skills, math, science, and foreign economic development instrument. languages. Sadly, while neglecting high schools, Indiana High schools, their students and their has built a totally separate, overweight, and often ineffec- programs can set the tone for life in tive system called IVY Tech. many communities. High school students serve as role models for their A failing high school has high younger siblings and neighbors. So, too, adults attending delinquency rates; its students on high school classes transform the school’s atmosphere, the streets edging toward disrup- adding a more serious element to an adolescent environ- tive and potentially illegal behavior. Often citizens perceive ment. these truants and drop-outs as threats to their persons and A good high school acts as a magnet, draws new property. Even if not visible, unsupervised young people citizens to town and retains those already living there. A may test the boundaries of civilized behavior, potentially good high school instills community pride yet currently inflicting irreparable harm on themselves and others. remains an undervalued asset in Indiana. v Some insist that high schools are virtually impotent if they do not have the support of the parents. Others claim Mr. Marcus is an independent economist, speaker, the issues of behavior must be addressed in earlier grades. and writer formerly with IU’s Kelley School of Busi- Finally, most students lack the essential aspiration for edu- ness. cation, for a life enriched by knowledge and competence. These arguments are valid yet exist as convenient excuses for doing little, for avoiding the distinct responsibilities and opportunities of high schools. To be effective a high school must have a clear mis- sion based on its individual circumstances. The state and the school district must leave creating the mission and the means to accomplish the mission to the individual school. This requires principals who have the vision, the will, and the authority to mold programs that will work in their schools. In too many cases, today’s principals shuttle among the superintendents, teachers, parents and students at- tempting to maintain calm. They are intermediaries, not leaders. Principals must be educated and empowered to be leaders, not just administrators. Aggressive programs to prepare young people for adult responsibilities will require additional resources. Over HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 19 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

Mizell Stewart III, Evansville Courier & ing the party to keep its eye on the deficit-reduction prize Press: Since Tuesday’s primary election in the city of and stop obsessing about social issues. “Try to concentrate Evansville, many have lamented about the woeful voter on making ends meet, which Washington obviously has turnout, as fewer than 10,000 chose to participate in the failed to do for a long time, and have other policy debates Democratic primary. Others wondered whether the rift in other places if you can,” he advised. He then went home in the Democratic party that erupted when Vanderburgh and announced that he would sign a bill to strip Planned County Treasurer Rick Davis dared to declare himself a Parenthood of Medicaid financing. “He called a truce on so- candidate for mayor before incumbent Jonathan Weinza- cial issues, and he was the first to fold,” said Nancy Keenan pfel decided against running for a third term will ever be of NARAL Pro-Choice America. “The suggestion I made healed. Let’s be clear: Whether you voted or not — heck, about trying to set aside other issues was made in the whether you even live in the city or not — the primary national context,” Daniels said over a lunch with journalists was a great thing. Most of the time in local and even state this week in New York. “I was thinking more broadly than politics, the party leadership settles on a candidate early on some people heard it.” Actually, Daniels’s moderate fans and quietly lines up support behind The Anointed One. Not thought abortion was precisely the issue he was calling on this year, and, in the end, voters will be the real winners. Republicans to set aside. While Daniels is not a good ex- Now, don’t mistake my enthusiasm for the primary process ample of a fiscal conservative who wants to move beyond as satisfaction with the candidates themselves — at least the social wars, he is a real prototype of the peculiar strain not at this point. In just about every setting — from the in the political right that trusts people to make their own Courier & Press editorial board to neighborhood informed decisions without government interven- candidates’ nights across the city, the Rick Davis tion except when it comes to the most exquisitely pitch is largely a recitation of his resume, state- personal choice a woman could ever face. In his ments about “accountability” and “transparency” capacity as deficit hawk, Daniels waxes eloquent and a pledge to have public committee meetings on his conviction that if Americans have to pay about job creation. v more of their medical bills, they’ll make smart choices about whether that nagging headache re- ally requires the expense of a CAT scan. Doubting that the Doug Ross, NWI Times: Remember Indiana Gov. individual patient can judge whether more tests or medical Mitch Daniels’ proposed truce on social issues? Well, you procedures are required, Daniels said, “demeans the dignity can forget it now. Daniels had proposed a truce on divisive of people.” However, women who are seeking an abortion social issues in order to focus on fiscal matters. But he have to be given not only the information they ask for, or dealt that truce a death blow last week when he said he the information the doctor thinks they need, but also faux supported and would sign legislation that blocked public facts that their local lawmakers want to force on them. And funding for Planned Parenthood. Everyone knows Planned dignity be damned. v Parenthood performs abortions. Not everyone knows the agency provides a number of other health services as well. And public money already doesn’t fund abortions. So why Russ Pulliam, Indianapolis Star: A Mitch Daniels attack Planned Parenthood? Because Planned Parenthood presidential run could offer a disciplined approach to the represents liberalism, which is under attack in Indiana, federal budget. Yet his initial challenge would be in captur- even more so than the rest of the nation. All it takes is a ing all three wings of a winning coalition for the Republican look at the Indiana General Assembly’s priorities this year Party. The wings are: business, the tea party and social to see that. And you can bet the nation will begin looking conservatives. He should have the business caucus on his at those accomplishments now that the nation’s spotlight is side. They want cuts in federal spending and an end to finding Daniels.v government rules and regulations that stifle business initia- tive. He also should get a big part of the tea party cau- cus. They are even more adamant about slimming down Gail Collins, New York Times: Let us stop for a the federal government, with a libertarian streak. Daniels minute to consider Mitch Daniels, the governor of Indiana. might be shaky with what used to be called the religious Many of you may be unacquainted with Daniels. After all, right - the pro-life, pro-family voters who overlap with the a lot of Americans go for years on end without ever setting tea party. Ronald Reagan pulled all factions together in the foot in Indiana even though it is a fine state, full of lovely 1980s, although the tea party voters had not emerged as people and some first-class universities, not to mention the a well-defined group then. Daniels has the credentials of a RV Hall of Fame, the world’s largest ball of paint and the social conservative. He’ll sign pro-life legislation passed by Dan Quayle museum. But about Mitch Daniels. The political the General Assembly that will encourage pregnant women world has been abuzz with speculation that he will run for to weigh the humanity of the baby in the womb. v president. Centrist Republicans loved it when he began urg- HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 20 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, May 12, 2011

day to join Democrats in reintroduc- a change Gov. Mitch Daniels believes Judge rules against ing an immigration measure he’s long will lead to more jobs in the state. Un- Planned Parenthood supported. Since 2005, Lugar has der House Enrolled Act 1004, signed co-sponsored with Sen. Dick Durbin, into law by the Republican governor INDIANAPOLIS - Planned D-Ill., a bill to let illegal immigrants this week, starting in 2012 the income Parenthood of Indiana will receive no who grew up in the United States earn tax rate for corporations will drop by Medicaid reimbursement for about the legal status through college or the 0.5 percent a year from the current next six weeks while it prepares to military. But Lugar, who faces chal- 8.5 percent until reaching 6.5 percent challenge a new state law cutting off lenges from a Republican and a mod- in 2015. “Our principal goal always its funds (Gillers, Indianapolis Star). erate Democrat in his bid for a sev- has been to make Indiana the best U.S. District Judge Tanya Walton Pratt, enth term, did not sign on to the latest business climate possible,” Daniels who will hear the health-care pro- introduction of the bill, announced said. “We’ve always been looking at vider’s case on Wednesday by Durbin and Senate Ma- finding ways of lowering the cost of whether the law jority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev. Lugar hiring Hoosiers.” Daniels said Indiana’s is constitutional, may still vote for the bill if it comes up 8.5 percent corporate income tax rate denied Planned for a vote, according to spokesman -- the ninth-highest flat rate among Parenthood’s Mark Helmke. But that depends “on the states -- stuck out in comparisons request for an the circumstances in which the bill was with other states, even though other emergency brought to the floor and the political costs of doing business in Indiana, hold on the law posturing surrounding such a vote,” such as unemployment and worker Wednesday. “I’m pleased that the Helmke said. Lugar continues to work compensation expenses, are generally state law is going into effect as the with Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., on a lower. “This will now make Indiana a legislature intended,” said state Solici- different bill that would help immigrant little more competitive,” Daniels said. tor General Thomas M. Fisher. Pratt entrepreneurs get visas if the immi- The nonpartisan Legislative Services said that letting the law take effect for grant has the backing of an investor." Agency estimates the reduction in the six weeks would not cause “immediate corporate income tax rate will cost the and irreparable injury, loss or dam- state $114.9 million between 2013 and age” -- the legal burden of proof for Students won’t 2015. an emergency hold. That hold would have covered the period until July 1. be deported By that date, Pratt said, she will decide INDIANAPOLIS - Immigra- Evansville TV whether the state should enforce the tion officials say five illegal immigrants law during the months it will take to stations change arrested during a protest at Indiana hear Planned Parenthood’s case. Pratt Gov. Mitch Daniels’ office won’t be EVANSVILLE — For the first noted that Planned Parenthood has a deported. The U.S. Immigration and time since the great switch of 1995, fund that helps cover costs. But Betty Customs Enforcement said in a state- which saw three Tri-State television Cockrum, of Planned Parenthood of ment Wednesday that it had deter- stations change affiliations, another Indiana, said it’s not clear whether the mined it “was not the best use of the change is getting under way. On provider can serve its 9,300 Medic- agency’s resources” to try to deport Tuesday, the FOX television network aid clients without payment. Asked them. The Indianapolis Star says the announced that it has pulled its affili- Wednesday what would happen if a five appeared Wednesday in a Marion ation from Nexstar-owned WTVW-Fox Medicaid patient walks into a Planned County court for a hearing on criminal 7 and has signed an agreement with Parenthood clinic, Cockrum said, “I trespass charges. They’re all out on Communications Corp. of America don’t know.” bond. (ComCorp), the owner of CBS44 and My44 WEVV. A statement from FOX Lugar drops (which can be read in its entirety at Indiana drops jakesdtvblog.blogspot.com) indicates Dream Act Fox programming will move to what corporate tax rate is now My44 (ch 44.2), and, effective WASHINGTON - As the politics INDIANAPOLIS - Indiana’s July 1, the channel will be rebranded of the 2012 election heat up, GOP corporate income tax rate will drop by as “My Fox 44.” CBS44’s programming Sen. Richard Lugar declined Wednes- two percent over the next four years, will remain as it is.