Se Source
Year End Year 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 (HK$) high/low 52 Weeks vol. average 3 month m) (HK$ cap. Market (m) issue in Shares 2018F 2017F 2016F 2015A 2014A 12/31 年结 e 快速 公司报告：中国奥园 Company “ Rapid
th Accumulate” e :
the Company, Guotai
las lower 20.8% of 1H16 of in ASP 20.8% or representing and cities international The Company The commercial projects commercial undervalued. development. development. Quality land bank could drive stable gross margins and support future notes senior USD showed an bonds andthe domestic of corporate issuing the Meanwhile, the the sales Contracted RMB underlying a representing Therefore promotion. 20.8% 国际城市且其单位地价为人民币 低估。 的折让，也分别相当于 们将我们的目标价从 公司基本面正在逐渐改善，另外，深港通的预计开通将会是估值提升的催化剂。因此 有质量的土储能够 合约销售 % YoY64.6 to 1H16 exchange losses of RMB exchange losses nch lau expected 。 人民币的进一步贬值 2016 的下降及人民币 同比增长 善。 增长 t page
Company 年上半年 567 - 。 因此，我们维持 - than net profit profit net 的合约销售以及吸引人的估值
很有可能延续快速增长 66 (RMB m) (RMB Sales for Turnover m % Report: 总股数 14,383 14,383 20,903 20,903 18,218 expected contracted sales, contracted expected n
PER and PER 0.5x 2016 disclaimer 市值 9,572 9,572 6,976 。与此同时，境内公司债的发赎回 行以及美元优先票据的 . 3 净利
收入
149 个月平均成交股数 (
Therefore, ’ 58 Junan achieved RMB achieved 03883 HK s fundamental 维持 the Company the of 77% (HK$ m) (HK$ RMB
符合
was in line with % discount to% 2016E NAV of HK$4.70 (m)
上升 损失，净利同比 百万元的汇兑 of of 1.80 are likely extend to 周高
稳定的毛利率和支持未来的发展。
4.5 “ International
and further depreciation of RMB. depreciation and further 预期。 ,
6 SZ 收集
we , Contract
高到 港元调 480 /
倍
Net Profit Net China AoyuanChina 低 (RMB m) (RMB - its unit land cost amounted to RMB1,705 RMB1,705 per sq.m, to amounted land unit cost its 股东净利 HK HK
” ) revise revise
6 201
总收入同比增长 。 1,805 1,805 1,444 1,073 149 。 m we maintain “ 风险： 812 812 809 2016 Stock C Stock . n improvement improvement 1,705 (
s 11.75 年 ‘
000)
mn, t mn, in up 核心市盈率和
are 1. PBR. 年
合约销售，商业项目可能的运营失败和 低于预期的 98
1H16.
1.80 HK$ from price our target 元每平米，相当于 our expectation. To expectation. our 1
- bn onnect 每股净利 he increased net profit 港元，相当于 7 . gradually
’ (RMB) s
月，公司录得人民币 0.652 0.652 0.522 0.388 0.292 0.291 T fast growth % 64.6
ion EPS
in he C he
land banks were banks land Due to Due to
in in
possible operation possible of operation failure contracted sales, up 66% sales, contracted
0.5 will be will a Accumulate” the debt structure. the
到人民币
o 每股净利变动 (
mpany 5.2 倍 03883 HK improving. but 公司 较 ， 1.810 1.810 a in decline 2016 %
4.70 . 到人民币 ( 维持
2016 77% △ From EPS 25.0 25.0 34.6 32.8
6 ’ 2 4, 2 s share s share 0.3 0.3 6.0 /
%) 。 年市净率 ,
catalyst
, , 480 per share, per share, 1. 3 6 7 有 净资产 港元每股 117.5 Attractive Valuation 的土储 p 10.5 52.4 69.3
300
年上半年销售均价的
. line “ Jan. to Jul to Jan.
百万元。由于利润率
In addition, In addition, 567 in tier in 表明债务结构的改
Risk: factors 亿元的合约销售，
收集
redemption ofredemption / 位于一线
5.2 )
increas margins andmargins price is price for valuation
百万元。 市盈率 公司股价 to HK$ to % PER 4. FY1 FY1 (%) float Free shareholder Major
- 1/ tier 1/ 2.2 2.2 2.7 3.7 4.8 4.6 (x)
5 ” YoY to to YoY . 2016,. x 2016
6 6 e
1.98 Est. NAV(HK$) gearing Net d 二线
YoY also 58 也被 ，我
the the 每股净资产 - by by 2/ 2/ % . , /
(RMB)
4.180 4.180 3.677 3.275 2.961 2.773 B 自由流通比率 PS
(%)
: Source 大股东 股价表现 performance Stock
平均股价（港元） Avg 相对恒指变动 %Rel. to HS index 绝对变动 % Abs. 股价变动 Change Sharein Price Share price price Share from Revised 6 评级： R
- FY1 FY1 ating: 18m TP .
share price(HK$)
, Bloomberg
6
6 市净率 每股估值（港元）
(%) 净负债 P %
BR
0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 (x)
%
目标价
原目标价 股价： / Junan Guotai 股东资金 ,
每股股息 Maintain
: (RMB)
0.235 0.235 0.188 0.139 0.105 0.080
DPS :
( % 1
International (4.7) 个月 )
1.7 0.0 1 M
Ace Rise Profits 50.0 Profits Rise Ace 股息率 [email protected] Yield 3 . +86 755 23976672 +86 Accumulate 16.4 16.4 13.1 (17.0)
(%) (1.2) 个月 23 August2016 9.8 9.8 7.5 5.9 1.6 3 M Van Liu
Page HK 收集 Maintained 净资产收益率 HK HK$ $ $ 刘斐凡 1
8.7 1.5 6.0 1 1.680 1.98 1 Y
( of of 维持) 年 ROE 1.80
70.5 37.9 12.3 12.3 10.9
(%)
9 4.7 8.9 8.9 7.9 9.8 %
Com pany Report China Aoyuan 中国奥园 (03883 HK) GTJA Research 国泰君安研究
decreased compared to that during Jan. However, the YoY c up 39.8% YoY. Salable areas extended the decline trend, dropping 0.3 mn and as the stocksas tightened further in Suzhou and Nanjing. According to CRIC, stock pressure contracted salesgrowth . Table China’ We think that HPR may tighten further in some tier Se Property market Source Figure G International. Junan Guotai Company, the Source: Ratio Gearing Net equity Shareholders' Debt Total under development Properties Asset Total andCash Equivalents Cash EPS Underlying (RMB cent) DPS NPM (Ex. after NPM (Inc. after (Ex. after Profit Net Net Profit (Inc. after GPM Profit Gross Total mn RMB losses of RMB 1H16 gearing also fair value gains on investment properties and exchange losses, the underlying net profit increased umulative new construction areas rowth rate rate rowth e 10,000
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 th more
in line with R : NBS, Guotai Jun Guotai NBS, : e net profit s evenue 1 0 las 1
:
economic recovery momentum is weak ratio
: Comparison of the Company’s Balance Sheet and Income Statement in 1H15 t
cash collection from contract Cumulative House Sales Amount in China ge page
- of of -to in - tax fair value gains value tax on IP) fair tax fair value gains on gains value taxIP) fair 149 (HKD cent) (HKD fo creased
-sales ratio decreased to ahealthy level. T key
Amount Sold YTD YoY of Residential Houses (RHS) Houses Residential of YoY YTD Sold Amount Amount Sold YTD YoY bn) (RMB (LHS) Houses of Residential Commodity of Sold Amount Houses bn) (LHS)(RMB (RHS) Houses Commodity of Sold Amount our expectation. was in line was with r -
- disclaimer tax fair value gains on gains value taxIP) fair tax fair value gains on value taxIP) gains fair
recovery
mn, an property increase of commodity house sales, GFA sold, investment, land area sold and GFA
I nternational.
net profit 5.3
G
ross profit
ppts
momentum
d evelopment and
YoY GPM dropped slightly increased our expectation.
.
still maintained double amountedRMB to
Cash ed
-Jun. 2016.
sales is likely to extend balance , .
4.3 with s ales
5.2 ppts YoY to 25.0 To
property increased -2 cities where there are p %
- - - 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 10.0% 0.0%
data 1
30.0% 20.0% 10.0% line
, 622 YoY to RMB he land markethe land
increas decreas -digit growth.
m stock pressure exist Source Figure
51.7 with a morewith moderate sales growth n % YoY. 40.3 up , margins in andexchange Due to the decline 1,000 1,200 1,400 e % YoY to : NBS, Guotai Jun Guotai NBS, : 200 400 600 800 %. %. d ed 567 2 0
by by : .
N Cumulative House Sales GFA in China During Jan.
et profit margin declined 4.9 64.6 also m Property market recovery momentum extended. 13,798 26,205 40,315 n, which inline was 11.5% 13.7% 29.4% 88. had 6,731 1,156 3,935 8,006 1H15 16.3 16.3 N.A. RMB
% YoY to 453 538 recovered, 3 overheating housing markets. Nevertheless, sq.m. compared to end of Jun. In addition, % gradually alleviated ing
an GFA Sold of Residential Houses (LHS) (sq.m. mn) (sq.m. (LHS) Houses Residential of Sold GFA mn) (LHS)(sq.m. Houses Commodity of Sold GFA GFA Sold of Residential Houses (RHS) Houses Residential of Sold GFA GFA Sold of Commodity Houses (RHS)
10,
I -Jul. 2016, Commodity house sales were nternational. in lower tier cities. Therefore, the overall 211 RMB
especially m
and n 6
, due to an enlarged
480
our expectation. 1H16 27.2
m
f 10,211 18,289 38,866 58,527 in in 25.0% 93.5 or tier n 1,622 6,480 8,636
1H16 % YoY to RMB 8.9% 8.7%
ppts 20.8 20.8 N.A. tier in
. 577 567
Recently, HPR has % 1 -
H 1 andtier - YoY YoY 1 and tie and 1
16 newly started ,
dueto strong to to Page Page
If excluding
debt scale 8.7
r- 2 cities.-2 - - 577 -
2 2.6 ppts 2.6 5.3 ppts 5.3 4.9 ppts 4.3 ppts Change 2 cities %. %. of of 51.7% 27.9% 27.2% 40.3% 64.6% 32.5% 48.3% 45.2% 7.9% 5.2% 9 N.A. mn Net Net - - - 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 0.0%
30.0% 20.0% 10.0% ,
Company Report China Aoyuan 中国奥园 (03883 HK) 23 August 2016 sales to extend fast growth. respectively. sufficientWith saleable resources and under property market recovery, we to RMB19.2 bn. Amongst which, expected new launches and saleable resources carried from 1H16 were 11.5 bn and 7.7 bn, continue to destock in lower tier cities. per sq. contract Se Source: Figure C policyand creditenvironment should continue to Source: Source: by Region Figure Figure Source: Source: ontracted sales are likely to extend
e Contracted sales (RMB million) 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 th 500 10 15 20 25 30 e 0 5 0 the Company. the t CRIC, Guotai Junan International Junan Guotai CRIC, m, m, las he Company he 5 6 3 ed : :
Jan - 11 t
: up
Aoyuan Month China
2011 ge page
977 Stocks sales Apr - 11 in Jan 1,132 % YoY. T YoY. 11% tier Jul - 11 Yangtze River 1H15 1,504 fo - - 1 cities Oct - 11
% YoY. Accumulated YoY. 66% up , r Jul. , Guotai Junan International. Junan Guotai , Delta
Ao disclaimer 7%
Jan - 12 - Core Region of Core Region Beibuwan Contracted Sales to
West China West Central and Central yuan’ 405 10% Apr - 12 - 2016 Feb Sales Ratios by CityTier During 33% 636 Jul - 12 707 Bohai Rim Bohai he Company has Oct - 12
s
2%
Jan - 13 Contracted
707 Apr - 13 tier Mar 880 - Jul - 13 2 cities .
1,550 Guangzhou) Guangdong Oct - 13
19% Jan - 14 (ex
Comparison Overall, we believe
Guangzhou -
519 Apr - 14
Sales Breakdown Apr 29% 666 Jul - 14 achieved fast growth 1,730 Oct - 14
c
ontract Jan - 15 tier Apr - 15 817 - supporthouse sales 3 cities May
929 Jul - 15
During 201 During % of its 201 its 69% of 2,073 ed Oct - 15 2014
. Jan - 16 GFA amounted to
Jan. D 10.0 10.0 15.6
1,722 Apr - 16 that 9.0 9.0 uring Source: Source: Figure Jun 1,826 Jul - 16 2015
the recovery will extend with amore moderate sales growth. 2,967 4 Source: Source: Figure - Jan. Jul the Company, Guotai Junan International. Junan Company,Guotai the 100 150 200 250 300 6 50 2016 7
0 856 sales : . 201 . -
1,021 , which in turn , China by Region Jul. 2016Jul. , Wind Jul
Jan-11 4 1,225 :
Apr-11 otl adAqiiinAon n10 Monthly Land Acquisition Amount in 100 6 Cities During During Cities target. , Guotai Junan International Junan Guotai , 1.441 Yangtze River
Beibuwan Jul-11 Ao 10% Oct-11 Delta 506 Bohai Rim Bohai 9% Aug
1,403 Jan-12 yuan’
mn 3%
In 2H16, total saleableresources amounted China Aoyuan
in Apr-12 Land Acquisition Premium Rate(RHS) Premium Acquisition Land GFA YoY(RHS) Acquisition Land Monthly sq.m.) GFA(LHS)(mn Acquisition Land Monthly Jul-12
1H16 sq.m, up
Australia
Oct-12 will s Central and West West and Central 4% Core Region of Core Region
878
Contracted Jan-13 Jan. Sep 1,141 stabilize the Chinese Apr-13 China believe the Company's contracted 24% Jul-13
% YoY.49% was RMB ASP 8 Oct-13 2011
. Jan-14
1,230 Guangzhou recorded Apr-14 Oct 2,648 -
16%
Jul.
Sales Breakdown Jul-14 Oct-14
Jan-15 2016 2,130 Guangdong (ex Apr-15 RMB Guangzhou) Nov 2,521 Jul-15
34% Oct-15 economy and Page Page 11.75 Jan-16 Apr-16 1,500
- Jul-16 3 - - - - 100.0% 120.0% 80.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 0.0% Dec 3,015
80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% of of bn
, 9 157
in in
Company Report China Aoyuan 中国奥园 (03883 HK) 23 August 2016 As at 30 Jun. consideration of RMB5,341 mn. In addition, China Aoyuan has provide sufficient saleable resources for future development and protect amounted to RMB tier Se We -yieldhigh debts in We expect average financial costs to decline, divergence The Company rapid growth of contracted sales 7.9%. further growth and 2018F total revenue slightly However, and RMB1, 2016,in 2017 and 2018, respectively. cash to provide more saleable resources. As a result, Source: Source: Figure Source: Figure e 1H16 -1/ tier
th slightly 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% e . Therefore, the risk exposure to RMB depreciation is likely to decline. , the Company Meanwhile the , t t las Core Region of Core Region he Company he Company he revise due to . Under the loosening credit environment, average financial costs are likely to further decline 10 8 West China West Centre and : t -2/ internationalcities
because : China Aoyuan ge page 1H16 30%
661 China Aoyuan .
revise
In 1H16, the Company acquired 4 land
2016 Yangtze River up the recovery in fo ’ mn, respectively. In order tosupport the respectively. strongmn, contracted sales growth, the Company need . In 1H . In lands reserves are mainly exposed to tier r
Delta , Guotai Junan International. Junan Guotai , , Guotai Junan International. Junan Guotai ,
the 2016F disclaimer 2013 6% 1 11.4% , , of of 705 up t he he the the Guangzhou) Guangdong Beibuwan
16, the Company issued domestic corporate bond underlying profit Company per sq.m, 22% 5% (ex ’ unexpected GPM decline
s Lands by by ’
, 2017F - s Average Financial Costs Bohai Rim Bohai
2014 12.4% 2% the 10.2% .
redeemed senior notes amounting to and under monetary accommodation We sawWe land bankits maintain a high quality.
E 20.8 had China property market and sufficient saleable resources
and 2018 xposure , 11.8%
% of% ASPin 1H16. thinkWe that this quality land bank and proper unit land cost could
a totala GFA of
2015 Shenzhen 9.5% estimation Guangzhou 13%
F underlying net profit by 1.0 by Region and 22%
the debt structure is improv 6.4 in in
% to% RMB we revise up the net gearing ratio by 21.5 ppts, 23.1 ppts and 13.3 ppts approximately parcels s 1H16 , we1H16 revise down the GPM in 2016, 8.4% .
in We expect that
. The total acquiring GFA recorded 1,391,800 sq.m. with total
Source: Source: Figure Source: Source: Figure
entered into 14, -1/
383 the Company, Guotai Junan International. Junan Company,Guotai the the Company, Guotai Junan International. Junan Company,Guotai the 13. tier , we believe off 9 11 Off 325 USD : Bond
30%
76 - : the Company's -2 cities, which is favorable under the market China Aoyuan mn Tier s h or e e or h s
% Cities, 23% Cities, China Aoyuan 's China Aoyuan s million sq.m , 0.9% -
, 18,218 mn 3/ Tier amount the
ing. mn
According to the Company, its unit land cost Bank Loan Bank
- Off Shenzhen propertymarket 4
and
9% - Domestic Domestic with coupon rates of s h or e e or h s A ing to Bond - 24% shore bonds v erage financial costs declined by 0. ,
’ gross margins. s Lands 77 7 ’ s Debt Structure Structure Debt in s % and RMB contracted sales RMB % of its land banks are located in .
Cities, 40% Cities, to to W Tier RMB1,0 e revise 5.0
E - 2017 2
xposure and bank loan
bn 20, due to
and 2018.
903 with a coupon rate of 2 up International International over 9.25%. Cities, 37% Cities, 9 Trust 13% Tier mn Bank Loan Bank
Domestic Domestic the 2016F by Cit by
mn, respectively. the repayment of will for thefor first time - s to s 24% 1/ 1/ , 1H16 RMB1, maintain fast fast maintain s Page Page
invest more
y Overall will decline
in
With the With , 4 340
1H16
2017F 2017F of of
8.4 , 9 mn
we we %
.
Company Report China Aoyuan 中国奥园 (03883 HK) 23 August 2016 2016E NAV of HK$ 4.70 valuation promotion. As aresult, we structure undervalued the as rate fundamental growthst amid commercial projects Se Source: (HK target Price NAV discount to TP ( NAV/share ( NAV/share NAV ( ( asset value ( gross Total Invest ( properties Development NAV summary results Table Maintain International. Junan Guotai Source: Ratio Gearing Net ROA ROCE ROE Margin Profit Net Underlying Margin Profit Net Margin Profit Operating Margin Gross Profit Underlying Profit Net profit Operating Profit Gross Total Table
Net debt Net e th
R Aoyuan ment properties ( properties ment RMB e
3 evenue the Company the 2 las : : )
/net cash /net Breakdown Revision of 201 t
“ is improving, decreasing its risk exposure to the RMB depreciation mn ge page
Accumulate HK$ RMB s
)
$
“Accumulate are fo property market ) ) )
r
, (
disclaimer RMB Junan Guotai
gradually improving. In addition, t last price
RMB and further depreciation of RMB
of
RMB mn RMB
” China China per share, 4.5
mn ) 6 investment
”. -201
mn)
) mn International
include include factors Risk implied 201 14,383
70.5% 17.7% 25.1% Aoyuan 8 ) 1,029 1,213 2,542 3,605
2.0% 3.7% 8.9% 7.2% 8.4% recovery
Profit EstimationProfit 6 F New estimation
revise revise PBR
. x 2016 underlying PER and 0.5x 2016 rating for
’ s 201 . 18,218
10.9% 18.9% 25.5% 65.1% 2016 1,340 1,633 3,437 4,640
Land reserves 2.4% 4.8% 7.4% 9.0% in 201in 6 7 up F
NAV our target price from HK$ 1.80
Aoyuan. , 201 201
20,903 12.3% 20.0% 26.1% 49.2%
lower 1,661 2,041 4,175 5,455 . 2.8% 5.7% 7.9% 9.8%
he expected launch of SZ
8 7 F
and 201 -than are mainly exposed to tier
The 201
12,792 18.9% 27.1% 49.0% expected contracted sales, contracted -expected 1,019 1,137 2,423 3,461 2.0% 3.6% 8.0% 8.9% 8.5%
Company's 6 8 F
Old estimation Old are only 0.4 only are 201 16,296 10.5% 19.7% 27.2% 42.1% 1,328 1,536 3,205 4,425 2.4% 4.7% 8.1% 9.4% 7 F contracted sales are expected to
PBR.
to HK$1. x, x,
HK -HK 0.4 201 19,640 20.1% 27.4% 35.9% 11.9% 1,649 1,924 3,956 5,384 2.7% 5.6% 8.4% 9.8%
Moreover, the C -1/ tier x and0.3 and financial costs 8 Stock C F
98, representing a58 -2/ international cities
possible - - - - - 21.5 ppts 21.5
0.0 ppts 0.0 ppts 0.1 ppts 0.8 ppts 1.1 0.4 ppts 0.4 1.3 ppts 1.3 ppts 2.0 x, respectively onnect 201 12.4% 1.0% 6.7% 4.9% 4.2% 6 F o
mpany will operation Change 23.1 ppts 23.1
. - - - - -
be a catalyst for 0.0 ppts 0.0 ppts 0.1 0.8 ppts 0.8 ppts 0.5 0.4 ppts 0.4 0.8 ppts 0.8 ppts 1.7 201 The Company's ’ 11.8% s . Therefore, w 0.9% 6.3% 7.2% 4.8% % share priceis
7 maintain Page Page F s discount to
.
failure of The debt
5 - - - - 13.3 ppts 13.3
( 0.1 ppts 0.1 ppts 0.1 0.0 ppts 0.0 0.4 ppts 0.4 0.4 ppts 0.4 0.2 ppts 0.2 ppts 1.3 1 1 of of 1 201 8 2016 1 9 1 8 , 0.7% 6.1% 5.5% 1.3% 6.4% 58 837 9 1. 4.70 4. , , , , fast fast 073 910 704 206
8 98 00 % e F F )
Company Report China Aoyuan 中国奥园 (03883 HK) 23 August 2016 Se Figure Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Guotai Bloomberg, Source: e 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 th e las 12 t
: ge page
China Aoyuan P/B fo r disclaimer Junan international. Junan
AVG
12 M onths
Historical P/B STD-1 STD+1
Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan international. Junan Guotai Bloomberg, Source: Figure 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Aug-13 Nov-13 13 :
Feb-14 China Aoyuan P/E May-14 Aug-14 AVG Nov-14
12 Feb-15 M onths May-15
STD-1 Historical P/E Aug-15 Nov-15 Page Page Feb-16 STD+1 6 May-16
of of 9
Company Report China Aoyuan 中国奥园 (03883 HK) 23 August 2016
Se International. Junan Guotai Bloomberg, Source: Weighted Average Simple Average Median PropertiesRedco Group Ltd Glorious Property Holdings Kaisa Holdings Group Ltd Real Zhong An Beijing Capital LandLtd Top Spring International Hld China Sce Property Holdings Central China Real Estate Yuzhou Properties Co Fantasia Holdings Co Group LandHoldings C C Ltd China Aoyuan Property Group Powerlong Real Estate Holdin Modern LandChina Ltd Co Sh Ind Urban Poly Property Co Group Ltd China Overseas Grand Oceans mid listed HK Weighted Average Simple Average Median Dalian Wanda Commercial Pr China Vanke Ltd Co Greentown China Holdings Yuexiu Real Beijing North Star Ltd Co Hopson Development Holdings Shenzhen Investment Ltd Yuexiu Property LtdCo Kwg Property Holding Ltd WorldNew China LandLtd Shui On LandLtd Franshion Properties Sino Guangzhou R&F Properties Shimao Property Holdings Ltd Soho China Ltd Agile Property Holdings Ltd Longfor Properties GardenCountry Holdings Co Bbmg Corporation China Resources Land Ltd Evergrande Real Estate Group China Overseas Land& Invest listedHK large developers with major revenuemainland from Company Table e - Ocean LandOcean Holdings
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-
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disclaimer
Stock Code 03699 HK 01628 HK 01777 HK 01224 HK 03883 HK 01238 HK 00563 HK 00081 HK 02202 HK 03900 HK 00405 HK 00588 HK 00754 HK 00604 HK 00123 HK 01813 HK 00917 HK 00272 HK 00817 HK 03377 HK 02777 HK 00813 HK 00410 HK 03383 HK 00960 HK 02007 HK 02009 HK 03333 HK 00688 HK 01622 HK 00845 HK 01638 HK 00672 HK 02868 HK 03688 HK 01966 HK 00832 HK 01107 HK 00119 HK 01109 HK
Mkt (HK$ Cap m)
238,817.6 306,956.3 151,441.0 264,756.6 13,840.5 13,970.2 15,506.8 16,380.1 28,857.5 14,137.5 16,551.6 67,442.8 17,578.3 26,466.1 27,651.1 40,924.1 38,307.6 24,489.8 19,428.6 73,659.1 85,067.6 48,225.8 78,666.2 9,482.8 7,403.0 1,855.4 9,780.3 3,088.8 6,334.1 4,054.2 9,921.6 6,856.5 5,668.2 4,6 8,514.3 2,543.8 8,660.3 8,384.9 5,705.6 8,011.3 52.4
Last Price HK$ 52.750 20.600 12.700 12.620 21.850 26.850 11.160 2.600 1.190 2.190 1.680 2.130 1.220 1.800 2.290 2.500 6.400 4.890 2.600 7.360 3.780 1.140 5.420 7.750 2.190 2.480 3.680 4.710 4.960 3.830 2.880 5.750 5.340 0.950 1.560 0.790 3.230 2.610 1.850 1.660
2016F 20.4 43.0 10.3 10.5 34.7 10.5 26.7 11.3 11.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.7 9.2 9.6 4.4 9.2 7.6 7.3 5.5 4.9 5.8 7.9 7.4 9.1 8.2 6.9 7.6 4.8 1.9 5.2 5.1 3.5 4.7 8.5 3.9 4.3 2.8 4.8 9.2 8.7 9.4 6.4
PE 2017F
18.0 37.4 15.0 30.5 25.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.7 7.4 8.2 4.0 8.5 6.4 6.1 4.9 4.5 4.9 6.9 6.0 8.5 7.8 7.9 7.1 6.0 7.1 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.0 4.3 5.1 2.9 3.5 2.1 3.5 7.9 9.5 7.3 9.2 8.0 5.4
2018F 16.4 36.1 16.4 21.6 24.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.5 7.1 3.8 7.8 5.9 5.4 4.6 4.2 4.4 6.1 5.2 7.9 6.9 7.0 6.4 5.1 6.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.1 3.6 6.0 2.3 2.8 1.7 3.5 7.2 8.9 6.5 9.2 7.1 5.0
2016F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.7 0.4 0.9
PB 2017F
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.5 0.4 1.0
2018F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.4 0.4 1.0
2016F D/Y% 14.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.7 1.5 4.9 3.9 6.9 2.4 4.2 4.5 6.3 6.5 4.8 5.4 3.7 4.2 1.1 2.9 6.7 2.6 4.8 6.1 6.0 6.5 3.8 7.9 7.3 4.6 9.0 5.6 9.6 2.4 0.5 1.4 3.6 4.2 4.2 2.7 4.6 2.9 6.3
2016F ROE 13.2 14.2 12.5 13.8 14.1 13.3 12.2 15.5 10.1 12.5 12.1 18.1 20.9 14.7 13.3 18.2 21.4 12.8 10.8 19.6 11.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.8 9.2 4.2 3.9 9.1 7.7 1.4 7.6 6.9 7.8 8.5 9.9 5.5 0.2 9.8 9.2 7.2 3.8
EV/EBITDA Page Page 2016F 10.0 14.5 28.2 10.9 10.8 24.3 10.6 16.7 22.6 11.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.9 9.7 7.6 8.8 8.2 7.5 6.5 7.9 8.4 6.4 5.8 5.6 7.9 5.6 4.6 7.8 2.8 5.0 5.6 6.0 4.3 7.7 8.3 7.7 7.4 7
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Company Report China Aoyuan 中国奥园 (03883 HK) 23 August 2016 Se Source: e Total Minority interest Total common equity liabilities Total non- Total Other non- Senior notes Long- liabilities current Total Deposits received onsaleof properties Trade andother payables Total assets Total current assets Other non- Bank Restricted Trade andother receivables Properties for Sale non- Total Other current assets PPE Investment Year End (RMB Dec mn) Dividend payout ratio (RMB) DPS yoy Underlying EPS (RMB) EPS (RMB) yoy Profit attributable to period the for Profit income tax before Profit profit Operating yoy Gross s of Cost Other Sales of properties yoy Total Year End (RMB Dec mn) Financial Statements and Ratios Other current liabilities Current income tax liabilities Provision Short ------
Shareholders (Underlying p (Underlying Shareholders Shareholders income) (Net Minority interest Inco Losses onsales of asubsidiary Share profits of JVs Fina Other gainsnet SG&A Fair valuegainsoninvestment properties e
- b term bank loans
revenue term loans bank i ncome alances andc me tax expense nce income/(costs),nce net p quity & liabilities & quity th rofit ales
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Income Statement
Balance Sheet
(4,909) 33,150 24,947 20,378 36,786 36,786 27,752 2014A 2014A 10.0% 17.6% 27.5% 21.8% 1,315 3,928 6,803 7,374 3,776 8,772 1,849 3,636 7,719 3,257 1,577 4,464 3,501 1,989 2,728 1,449 1,505 2,067 6,976 1,790 (666) (770) 9.4% 0.08 0.27 0.29 (26) (65) 341 437 407 753 809 783 110 173 501 273 98 0 9
(6,926)
14,481 48,827 43,198 31,792 48,827 37,251 22,770 2015A 2015A 28.0% 36.0% 37.2% 3,333 1,267 9,295 4,803 9,823 1,753 5,629 1,884 1,981 2,646 8,243 8,924 1,597 2,570 5,348 7,769 4,505 9,572 1,228 2,202
(977) (131) (890) 0.3% 3.3%
0.11 0.28 0.29 (33) (91) 754 617 630 778 812 907 356 278 494 95 28 .
(10,778) (1,245) (1,287) 13,884 14,761 56,383 50,183 38,217 14,046 56,383 43,839 29,955 14,383 2016F 2016F 32.1% 36.2% 36.0% 32.9% 50.3% 3,473 1,914 1,029 1,073 1,213 2,458 2,542 3,605 4,323 1,695 2,042 6,199 9,070 9,103 1,518 3,641 7,014 6,316 5,088 2,422 (108) 0.14 0.37 0.39 (31) 459 593 140 254 337 519 599 25 0
(13,578) (1,693) (1,568) 13,941 18,696 62,075 55,277 43,565 17,822 62,075 48,230 34,289 10,183 18,218 2017F 2017F 34.6% 28.7% 36.0% 30.2% 26.7% 3,662 2,429 1,340 1,444 1,633 3,326 3,437 4,640 4,193 1,486 2,235 6,798 9,285 1,442 3,532 7,432 5,563 5,737 2,592 (135) 0.19 0.52 0.48 463 587 189 287 396 474 596 24 78 0
(15,448) (2,025) (1,730) 14,006 21,451 59,194 45,986 20,449 66,687 51,214 37,209 66,687 11,575 20,903 2018F 25.0% 17.6% 2018F 36.0% 24.0% 14.7% 3,898 2,787 1,661 1,805 2,041 4,066 4,175 5,455 4,067 1,480 2,371 7,493 9,471 1,370 3,426 7,704 6,570 6,458 2,670 (133) 0.2 0.60 0.65 236 127 323 468 582 454 454 588 24 4 0
Cash flow from financing from flow Cash Other financing cash flow Dividend Debt raised/(repaid) Cash flow from investments Other investing cash flow Increase in restricted bank deposits Purchase of investment properties cash fromNet operating activities Income taxesandInterest paid operations from cash Net Changes in working capital: After adjustments: above – – – – Profit before taxation Year End (RMB Dec mn) Margin EBIT Underlying Net Profit Margin Operating Profit Margin Gross Margin Dividend Yield (%) (x) PBR PER (Diluted) (x) (x) (Basic) PER Underlying PER (Diluted) (x) /Cash Total Assets Current Ratio Debt to Equity Ratio Net Gearing Ratio ROA ROCE ROE Ending Exchange losses oncash equivalents Beginning Net
- Others Fair valuegain onIPs Depreciation Finance costs
Adjustments for:
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Cash Flow Statement 162.7% 127.3% (1,628) (2,121) (1,645) (1,578) (1,430) 2014A 2014A 2014A 2014A 21.6% 10.8% 21.6% 29.6% 61.8% 2,429 2,793 1,363 1,449 2,812 1,989 (142) (223) (211) (844) 5.4% 2.4% 9.8% 4.3% Valuation 5.95 4.62 4.62 4.62 0.48 Margins (79) (98) (67) 704 Ratio 25 65 21
189.7% 140.8% (3,023) (1,681) (1,342) (3,170) 2015A 2015A 2015A 2015A 20.7% 20.7% 27.6% 15.9% 62.7% 2,856 6,804 2,247 4,849 1,827 1,884 4,852 7,769 (356) (292) (924) (202) (849) 8.1% 1.9% 7.9% 3.4% 7.46 4.82 4.82 4.82 0.48 173 126 34 91 61
167.5% 136.1% (1,484) (1,902) (1,969) 2016F 17.7% 17.7% 25.1% 2016F 2016F 11.2% 70.5% 2016F 2,240 2,392 2,458 7,769 6,316 (254) (386) (773) (648) (482) (152) (236) 7.2% 2.0% 8.9% 3.7% 9.77 3.68 3.68 3.68 0.44 147 769 271 108 45 35 30
Page Page 161.2% 122.9% (1,329) (2,437) 2017F 10.9% 18.9% 18.9% 25.5% 2017F 2017F 65.1% 2017F 3,298 3,149 3,326 6,316 13.14 5,563 (287) (768) (300) (520) (133) (515) (681) 7.4% 9.0% 2.4% 4.8% 2.74 2.74 2.74 0.39 (61) (57) 149 277 861 135 35 15 8
of of 159.1% 109.6% 9 (2,572) (1,228) 2018F 12.3% 20.0% 20.0% 26.1% 2018F 2018F 49.2% 2018F 1,197 1,010 5,001 3,805 4,066 5,563 16.43 6,570 2,429
(107) (323) (650) (113) (358) (757) (191) 7.9% 9.9% 2.8% 5.7% 2.19 2.19 2.19 0.34 (46) 505 133 (3) 36
Company Report China Aoyuan 中国奥园 (03883 HK) 23 August 2016 Time Horizon: 6to 18 Time months Se INTERESTS OF DISCLOSURE Horizon: 6to 18 Time months Hong Benchmark: The Sector Hong Hang Kong Benchmark: The Seng Index Company (1) Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Report, in anddata this Research of has the ensure been contained information the to accuracy effort made best Though of Guotai nan. and by groups banking made Ju decisions asset investment or investment the tomanagement opinions be contrary y differ or report ma this in expressed opinions Any companies. ofJunan Guotai group of executives professional and other dealers persons, w or in orally expressed strategies or investment opinions to or becontrary report differ this in may expressed opinions Any proprietarily). or invest underwriter investment banking, investment reports, servi including research Guotai Limited ("Guotai(Hong Junan Junan"). Kong) and its group companies domay business relates to that coveredcompanies in Securities Junan Guotai by securities for or subscribe or purchase does not to offer Report acquire, aninvitation Research This constitute DISCLAIMER (4) (2) © 2016 requirement or Guotai and any group registration Junan licensing to its companies subject applicable law to or or regulati would becontrary use availability publication, where distribution, such any jurisdiction in or by, or entity to any a or who use person is distribution citizen not Research is or directedfor intended at, Report This decision. to prior any investment advisers their own consult financial and where necessary inves the and comprehend understand should Investors contain. may uncertainty so situation, mutable unpredic with inherently andeconomic derived assumptions ofconditions and the the political from future forecasts estimates contain Report Research may This and herein. data information of the and accuracy completeness the guarantee not (3) Website: www.gtja.com.hk Tel.: (852) 2509- 27/F., Low 181 Queen’s Plaza, Millennium Grand Block, Hong Road Central, Kong. e Underperform Neutral Outperform Rating Sell Reduce Neutral Accumulate Buy Rating th The The andtheirassociates Analysts within the preceding 12 preceding the months. within andJunan haveGuotai its group had companies of orequal donot grouphold companies to 1%more its ofthan the capitalization market The The Hold (00633 Limited (Holdings) China Access All (00198 HK), Limited Group Holdings SMI for Except e
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Company Report China Aoyuan 中国奥园 (03883 HK) 23 August 2016