AEROSPACE AMERICA 5
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Human space exploration A GLOBAL QUEST
Snaring a piece of the sky Hypersonic transport…30 years and holding A PUBLICATION OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS STRATEGY for SUCCESS
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May 2012 Page 3
DEPARTMENTS Page 10 EDITORIAL 3 Getting there together.
INTERNATIONAL BEAT 4 F-35 shows ups and downs of international partnerships.
WASHINGTON WATCH 10 Agreeing to agree on nothing. Page 22 CONVERSATIONS 14 With Martin C. Faga.
THE VIEW FROM HERE 18 Snaring a piece of the sky. Page 18 AIRCRAFT UPDATE 22 Jetliner demand: The changing landscape.
SPACE UPDATE 26 Soyuz and Long March set the pace.
OUT OF THE PAST 46 CAREER OPPORTUNITIES 48
FEATURES HUMAN SPACE EXPLORATION: A GLOBAL QUEST 32 The next step in human space exploration will be too complex and costly to achieve without international cooperation. by Leonard David
HYPERSONIC TRANSPORT…30 YEARS AND HOLDING? 40 Making hypersonic transportation a practical reality has proved elusive for decades, but the goal is alive and well. Page 26 by Mark Williamson
BULLETIN AIAA Meeting Schedule B2 AIAA Courses and Training Program B4
AIAA News B5 Page 40 Meetings Programs B16 Call for Papers B25
COVER With budgets shrinking around the world , the best hope for expanding our exploration of space may be through widespread international cooperation. Turn to page 40 for more information. Image courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech.
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Elaine J. Camhi Editor-in-Chief Patricia Jefferson Associate Editor Greg Wilson Getting there together Production Editor Jerry Grey, Editor-at-Large Christine Williams, Editor AIAA Bulletin The Global Space Exploration Conference is being held this month in Washington, D.C. This year also marks the tenth anniversary of the Correspondents Second World Space Congress and the twentieth anniversary of the Robert F. Dorr, Washington First World Space Congress. What has changed in two decades? Philip Butterworth-Hayes, Europe In 1992 the concept of ‘international cooperation in space’ focused Michael Westlake, Hong Kong mainly on the interaction of government programs. ESA and entities such Contributing Writers as Intelsat, Intersputnik, and others were considered shining examples of Richard Aboulafia, James W. Canan, success in linking nations together. Of these, only ESA remains intact; Marco Cáceres, Craig Covault, the remainder became private corporations. The next decade saw the Leonard David, Philip Finnegan, consolidation of corporations into international consortia such as EADS Tom Jones, James Oberg, David and SES Global; in joint ventures such as Eurockot and International Launch Rockwell, J.R. Wilson Services; and in the expansion of commercial services into global markets. Fitzgerald Art & Design But nation-to-nation cooperation is far from becoming extinct. The Art Direction and Design prime example of this is certainly the international space station. It is by far the largest international cooperative space program ever—the result of Brian D. Dailey, President efforts by 16 different nations. Although it has had many designs, many Robert S. Dickman, Publisher names, and has spawned seemingly endless complaints about cost overruns Craig Byl, Manufacturing and Distribution and missed deadlines, and even whether it had any real value or purpose, STEERING COMMITTEE the station is now widely considered to be among the most remarkable Col. Neal Barlow, USAF Academy; human achievements of modern times. Somehow, the will of 16 nations to Michael B. Bragg, University of Illinois; be a part of this extraordinary effort pushed past domestic and international Carol Cash, Carol Cash & Associates; Basil political squabbles, changes of governments and budgets, and serious Hassan, Sandia; Mark Lewis, University of economic problems. Maryland; Robert E. Lindberg, National In- stitute of Aerospace; Mark S. Maurice, It seems reasonable to believe that the next great space endeavor, to AFOSR; Vigor Yang, Georgia Institute of move beyond low Earth orbit, perhaps with Mars as the ultimate goal, will Technology; Susan X. Ying, Boeing also be a shared effort. Witness to this is the coalition of 14 space agencies that, in 2006, began discussions on shared interests concerning space EDITORIAL BOARD exploration, both human and robotic. Their aspirations were articulated Ned Allen, Jean-Michel Contant, in a document entitled The Global Exploration Strategy: The Framework Eugene Covert, L.S. “Skip” Fletcher, Michael Francis, Cam Martin, for Coordination, released in 2007. From this was born the International Don Richardson, Douglas Yazell Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG), which has spent the years since developing a roadmap for exploring our solar system. ADVERTISING There have of course been many roadblocks to the goal of true National Display and Classified: international cooperation, the most recent being NASA’s budget-driven Robert Silverstein, 240.498.9674 withdrawal from the ExoMars mission, which ESA now appears to be [email protected] West Coast Display: Greg Cruse, pursuing with cooperation from Russia. 949.361.1870 / [email protected] Nevertheless, the “Global Exploration Roadmap,” released in September 2011 by the ISECG, articulates a long-range strategy that ultimately leads Ross B. Garelick Bell, Business Manager to human exploration of the surface of Mars. The roadmap lays out options for multilateral discussion and interaction involving both robotic and human Send materials to Craig Byl, AIAA, 1801 missions, perhaps using the station, perhaps by visiting an asteroid or Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500, Reston, VA 20191-4344. Changes of address should be returning to the Moon. sent by e-mail at [email protected], or by fax Will this be the way of the future? Politics change, economies change, at 703.264.7606. and alliances are made and broken. But with this roadmap, as with the Send correspondence to [email protected]. development of the space station, the whole of all of these efforts will surely be greater than the sum of its parts. Getting together to get there May 2012, Vol. 50, No. 5 together benefits everyone. Elaine Camhi Editor-in-Chief BEATlayout0512_Layout 1 4/10/12 12:15 PM Page 2
F-35 shows ups and downs of international partnerships
AT THE START OF MARCH 2011 THE tional cooperation embedded in the keep the program alive,” says Raymond U.K. government began a reappraisal of program from the start—cooperation in Jaworowski, senior aerospace analyst at its 2010 decision to acquire the industrial partnerships and in the de- market consultants Forecast Interna- F-35C carrier version of Lockheed Mar- ployment of the aircraft in theatre. The tional. “The U.S. has had to tread very tin’s Joint Strike Fighter rather than the eight nations (apart from the U.S) par- carefully and understands what sort of F-35B vertical takeoff variant. The ticipating in the F-35 system develop- damage could be done to the interna- F-35C does have a longer range, can ment and demonstration phase (U.K., tional partnerships.” carry more weapons, and is interoper- Italy, Australia, Turkey, Netherlands, able with the U.S. and French navies. Canada, Denmark, and Norway) all op- Seismic changes However, it would necessitate chang- erate within a complex network of col- Even so, few of the program’s initial ing the design of the U.K.’s two aircraft laborative agreements that are growing managers could possibly have foreseen carriers, now under construction, to deeper and wider as economic prob- the seismic changes in the global de- equip them with catapults and arrester lems put increasing pressure on na- fense market when the first partnership gear. This would raise the cost of each tional defense budgets. arrangements were made. Over the carrier by more than $1 billion. Although the agreed investment in past two years there has been a rapid If this proceeds, the U.K. would the program by the international part- decline in defense spending among Eu- have to renegotiate its acquisiton plan ners is relatively small compared to the ropean states, adding new levels of un- with the U.S. government. Although this overall costs—around $4.4 billion certainty into long-term commitments would not impact the overall number of against an estimated $30 billion-$40 bil- to the program. F-35s ordered by the U.K., according to lion total—the global customer base is a In 2010 the governments of the EU’s one source at Lockheed Martin, it does strategically vital part of keeping down 26 member states spent a total of €194 underline the uncertainties of integrating the final production costs to the Dept. billion on defense, while the U.S. spent international partners within a single of Defense. $689 billion (the equivalent of €520 bil- long-term complex defense program. International customers have already lion). “Between 2008 and 2010, there placed outline orders for nearly 700 have been reductions in defense spend- Counterbalancing benefits F-35s, against 2,443 orders from the U.S. ing in at least 16 European NATO mem- Despite these political challenges, the “The international nature of the ber states. In a significant proportion of benefits of such partnerships still out- program has meant partners in Europe these, real-term declines have exceeded weigh the problems. The F-35 has been signed up fairly early on in the devel- 10%,” according to the London-based developed with the concept of interna- opment phase, and this has helped International Institute of Strategic Stud-
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ies (IISS). “The effect of these cuts across European states was brought into Major international suppliers to the F-35 jsF prograM focus by the campaign in Libya, which Supplier Country Work package highlighted existing gaps in targeting, Avcorp Canada AvcorpsecuredtheF-35outboardwingcontract tanker aircraft, and intelligence, surveil- in2009.Itiscurrentlycontractedfor260ship lance, and reconnaissance.” sets,withtheopportunitytosecure340+ship The roles to be fulfilled by the setsofoutboardwingsfortheF-35(CV). F-35 are ground-to-air strikes and com- Héroux-Devtek Canada InMarch2006LockheedMartinawarded bat air operations. These, however, are Héroux-Devtek’sProgressivebusinessunit currently not on the high-priority list for amultiyearcontractforthelow-rateinitial productionphaseoftheJSFproject. filling capability gaps in EU defense de- Inparticular,Progressivewillbuildtheinner partments, especially compared to other wingbulkheadforallthreeversions. urgent aviation capability requirements Terma Denmark LockheedMartin,BAESystems,andNorthrop such as air-to-air refueling, fixed-wing Grumman,alongwithMoog,GeneralDynamics transports, and transport helicopters. ArmamentandTechnicalProducts,Parker Hannifin,andMarvinEngineering,have asia rising signedanMOUwithTermaA/SfortheDanish At the same time, defense spending in companytobecomeamajorstrategicpartner intheprogram.Theagreementcovers Asia is rising at more than 3% a year. compositeconventionaledgesfortheaircraft As James Hackett, editor of the IISS horizontaltails,advancedlightweight publication Military Balance noted in compositecomponentsforthecenterfuselage, March, “On the current trend, Asian STOVLhorizontaltails,missionizedgunpods defense spending is likely to exceed forSTOVLandCVvariants,dataacquistion that of Europe, in nominal terms, dur- podsforflighttestinstrumentation,andradar ing 2012” for the first time. electronicsflightcontrolcomponents. The long-term result of these Alenia Italy Camerihasbeenchosenbythegovernment changes is that Europe will probably tosetupafinalassemblylineproducing twoF-35samonthandmanagedbyAlenia require fewer F-35s than first planned, Aeronautica.Thelatterwillalsobethesecond but new market prospects will emerge sourcesupplierofthewingbox. from the Middle East and Asia. FokkerAerostructures Netherlands FokkerisproducingtheF-35’sflaperons,the “The F-35 may not be as large a designandproductionofthedoorsand market as originally thought, but all hatches,threeelectricalwiringharnesses, the program partners will probably thewiringandstructuralcomponentsforthe stay in place,” though not with the Pratt&Whitneyengines,andthearrestinggear. numbers they had planned, Jawor- KongsbergDefense Norway Compositepartsandsubassembliesforthe owski points out. “The long-term andAerospace F-35centerfuselage. prospects still suggest the F-35 will TurkishAerospaceIndustries Turkey Undertheletterofintent,TAIbecomesthe certainly be the dominant fighter in secondsourcefortheF-35centerfuselage. the market over the next 20-30 years. BAESystems U.K. BAESystemsisresponsibleforthedesign, There are three different models, so development,andproductionoftheaft anyone who currently flies F-16s, Har- fuselage,empennage,andCVwingtipsfor eachaircraft.Thecompanyisprovidingcritical riers, and possibly F-18s could be po- componentsforthevehicleandweapon tential customers.” systems,inparticularthefuelsystem,crew escape,life-supportsystem,andprognostics gauging final figures healthmanagementintegration.BAESystems The key issue for all partners currently hassignificantworkshareinautonomic trying to plan long-term equipment logistics,primarilyonthesupportsystemside, andisinvolvedintheintegratedtestforce, strategies is what the final cost of the includingthesystemsflighttestandmission aircraft will be and how firm the deliv- systems.Thecompanyisalsoresponsiblefor ery deadlines are. At the end of March theelectronicwarfaresystemssuiteandis the DOD planned to announce a new providingadvancedaffordablelowobservable total program cost estimate for the aperturesandadvancedcountermeasure F-35. Meanwhile, development delays systems.Inaddition,BAESystemsissupplying have pushed back the end of the SDD thevehiclemanagementcomputer,the communication,navigation,andidentification phase until 2013 and added a reported (continued)
AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2011 5 BEATlayout0512_Layout 1 4/10/12 12:16 PM Page 4
Major international suppliers (continued) $8.4 billion to the development costs. Supplier Country Work package Lockheed Martin is aiming to sell the modules, the active stick and throttle, and the aircraft at a price equivalent to a Block EOTS laser subsystem. 60 F-16 or Block 2 F/A-18E/F. General Electric U.K. U.K. Horizontal tail centering actuator; standby It is difficult to be sure exactly flight display system, electrical power what impact the economic problems management system, remote input/output in Europe will have on the total num- data concentrator units; engine and debris ber of aircraft ordered. The U.K. has monitoring system and airframe strain and said it could need up to 138 of the stress models; and integrated canopy frame planes and ordered two F-35Bs in assembly. 2009 and one F-35C in 2010. An an- GKN Aerospace U.K. The company is the supplier of a number of nouncement of the final numbers of complex titanium structures for the airframe and engine; providing the advanced all-composite aircraft it requires is due before the engine front fan case and embedded electro- next defense review in 2015. thermal ice protection system for the F135 In 2010 the Netherlands canceled engine; and designing and supplying the its original commitment to buy 85— aircraft’s canopy transparency. which version or versions was not Martin Baker U.K. US16E ejection seat. specified—then changed its govern- Rolls-Royce U.K. Rolls-Royce signed a $131-million contract with ment and ordered two F-35As. A de- Pratt & Whitney to supply lift systems for the finitive agreement for orders is due in first six F-35Bs. the next cabinet. In June 2011 Norway approved funding of four F-35 trainers Subcomponent suppliers and expects to make a decision on fi- BAE Systems Australia Australia Wiring boards and assemblies, cable assemblies, nal numbers in 2014. Italy originally and selected electronic components. approved the purchase of 131 F-35s in Production Parts Australia High turbine supports/bearing housing 2002 for €15 billion, agreeing to build supports for the Pratt & Whitney F135. a final assembly facility at Cameri air Barco Belgium Display components for L-3 Display Systems. base. However, in February of this Magellan Canada Aft-fuselage, horizontal and vertical tails year it announced that it would be re- substructures for BAE Systems. ducing its order to 90 aircraft. Terma Denmark Aft-fuselage, horizontal and vertical tails substructures for BAE Systems. ripple effects Galileo Avionica Italy Cables and components for BAE Systems. These changing acquisition plans have an impact on the global supply chain. Logic Sistemi Avionici Italy Display components for L-3 Display Systems. Production contracts have been given Fokker Netherlands Titanium components for the Pratt & Whitney to many non-U.S. suppliers on the ba- F135; in-flight opening doors for Northrop Grumman. sis of aircraft orders. Some of these are for major components. Turkish Aero- Philips Netherlands Display components for L-3 Display Systems. space Industries, for example, is a sec- Thales Nederland Netherlands Machining and casting of submodules and ond source for the center fuselage, components, and the assembly of electronic components for BAE Systems. and the number of fuselages produced will be determined by the number of Kongsberg Norway Composite components for Northrop Grumman. F-35s Turkey will procure. Volvo Aero Norway Low-pressure turbine shaft and the intermediate “The production of parts by the case for Pratt & Whitney’s F135. supplier base is dependent on the or- Alp Aviation Turkey Landing gear components and assemblies ders we receive,” says David Scott, di- supplied to Goodrich, rear fan hub for Pratt & Whitney. rector of international business devel- opment at Lockheed Martin. Aydin Yazilim ve Turkey Display components for L-3 Display Systems Elektronik Sanayii “There is an expectation that inter- national customers will meet their TAI Turkey Second source suppliers for composite air inlet ducts for Northrop Grumman. planned commitments for buying air- craft and we will meet our commit- GKN Aerospace U.K. Ice protection system components for the Pratt & Whitney F135. ments to their industries. But all of this will take decades to work out as they Ultra Electronics U.K. F135 EIPS electronic controller and inter- connecting harnesses and connectors for order aircraft and we build aircraft.” Pratt & Whitney. At the same time that European partners and customers have dithered
6 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2012 BEATlayout0512_Layout 1 4/10/12 12:16 PM Page 5
about delivery figures, the number of military buildup is providing a catalyst production process are being moni- potential new customers from the to the demand for fifth-generation tored especially closely now by inter- Middle and Far East has been gradu- fighters from several states in the re- national customers, many of whom ally increasing. The F-35 has not been gion. In December 2011, Japan an- have yet to determine the final num- cleared for export to Middle East nounced an order for 42 of the planes. ber of aircraft they will buy. countries apart from Israel and Tur- Lockheed Martin’s efforts to re- Philip Butterworth-Hayes key, despite keen interest in the air- duce unit prices of F-35s by looking Brighton, U.K. craft from gulf states, while China’s for efficiency improvements in the [email protected]
He mentions he wants to get launch Moving beyond Earth: NASA’s steps sideration. The most exciting concept costs down, but none of the compa- through 2020 (March, page 16) in- I have seen lately is the reel tether, in- nies he mentions are going to do that. cludes the section “Why send humans troduced in 2010 at an IAF congress Many of them are into the suborbital to deep space?” That section listed (“Space Colonization, A Study of Supply tourist business, which only provides some important reasons, but it did not and Demand,” IAC-11.E5.1.8, 2010). By for those who can afford to spend a mention what many might consider extending a tether down from a low couple of hundred grand for a subor- one of the most important: Prepare for Earth orbit, capturing a payload, and bital flight. Many of the others are ca- a time when a permanent human reeling it up, the reel tether can im- pable of going into orbit but not at colony can be developed somewhere prove launch economics. By reeling a tourist fares. Only the government can off Earth. tether up from LEO, a reel tether can afford the bill to take supplies and as- An initial colony would need sup- help a payload move to higher orbits. tronauts to and from the space station. port from Earth. Later, it might be eco- There is no need to extend the reel The way to reduce costs of going nomically self-supporting. Eventually, tether more than current materials into orbit is to build more efficient a colony that can exist with no sup- make practical, and multiple reel teth- rocket engines. Neither the commer- port from Earth may be possible. ers can be used to boost payloads as cial entities nor NASA are doing that. Then, humanity will truly be in space far as needed. James A. Martin NASA is being mandated by an unin- to stay. James A. Martin Huntington Beach, California formed Congress insisting on develop- Huntington Beach, California ment of a space launch system using inefficient and obsolete rocket en- The two articles in the February issue gines. The Exploration Systems Devel- In The ephemeral ‘advanced propul- deserve comment. opment at $3.0073 billion is 16.9 % of sion’ (March, page 24), Jerry Grey First, as to China’s long-range view the NASA budget. properly addresses many options for page 8), the article would have been NASA is also intending to use some space transportation and the propul- much more informative if it had given space launch contractors, in the Com- sion they use. He is correct that com- some quantitative values. How much mercial Space Flight Federation, who bined rocket air-breathing cycles prob- payload can it put into what orbit? use inefficient kerosene-fueled rocket ably are not useful now, and single- What is the size and weight of the ve- engines, which waste 80% of the kero- stage vehicles are not a good option at hicle? Does it use liquid propellants or sene because they operate at exces- present. He mentions partly reusable solid propellants or a combination of sively small fuel-rich mixture ratios. vehicles with subsonic airplane first both? How many stages does it have? That is the way you build an inexpen- stages, which may have some benefit. Quantitative values would make it sive rocket engine. The result is that One concept he did not mention is a easy to assess what capability the Chi- thousands of pounds of unused kero- reusable rocket booster with an expend- nese have. As it is, it seems not to tell sene, a hydrocarbon, are dumped into able upper stage. For some time, I have us anything we don’t already know. the atmosphere. We do not allow gas- felt that this should be the next major Turning to the Conversation with oline, a hydrocarbon, to be leaked development in launch (see “Where John Gedmark (page 16), the man has into the atmosphere when we pump it Profit Drives RLV,” Aerospace America, good credentials, but he seems to not into our automobiles, so why do we April 1997). Recent Air Force studies understand the difference between allow kerosene to become a giant oil- have also indicated that such vehicles suborbital flights and going into orbit. spill in the sky? We cannot afford such are appropriate now, and the Air Force It takes about 30 times more energy to inexpensive rocket engines. is pursuing a demonstration vehicle. stay in orbit as it does to fly a subor- Now, Mr. Gedmark does mention Jerry mentions tether ‘slingshots’ bital flight for a look around and then single-stage-to-orbit vehicles and re- but does not give tethers much con- come back down. useable vehicles, but we are not going
AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2011 7 BEATlayout0512_Layout 1 4/10/12 12:16 PM Page 6
to get there using inefficient rocket en- flux actually been physically measured Secondary Combustion Augmented gines as is being done by the commer- for substantiation of this claim? Thruster (SCAT) operates bimodally as cial entities and NASA. •Higher performance and density for either a monopropellant thruster or as a I think the American public deserves LMP-103S are stated. This may well be bipropellant engine, delivering an Isp of better than this. Dale L. Jensen true, but when comparing these charac- 315 sec, depending on whether high [email protected] teristics with those of existing flight- performance or pulse mode operation is proven hydrazine systems, the follow- needed. Hydrazine can also be used as Reply by Butterworth-Hayes: Thank ing system performance benefits need a gas generator, enabling electrothermal you for your interest in China’s long- to be considered: hydrazine thrusters (Isp greater than 300 range view. I must respectfully dis- Is there a spontaneous catalyst avail- sec) or for arcjets (Isp about 600 sec). All agree with the relevant paragraph of able to achieve ambient temperature these enhanced thrusters are in wide use your letter. The point was nothing to rapid LMP-103S decomposition or, un- on many operational spacecraft. do with ‘gee whiz’ numbers or other like hydrazine, is a high thrust chamber Other issues include: bits of rocketry; it was about the psy- preheat temperature, at increased cost •This article says this propellant has chology of the Chinese engineers and in spacecraft power, required? been verified to be compatible with scientists involved and the trend be- What thrust chamber material is re- most hydrazine commercially avail- hind their work—the ‘what it all quired to withstand the stated much able off-the-shelf components. How- means’ side of their progress. higher operating temperature? Is this ever, no detailed compatibility test re- material simple and low cost like that sults are presented. Furthermore, the used for hydrazine thrusters or is it a article does not specifically address The greening of satellite propulsion much more exotic and costly material, compatibility with elastomers or other (February, page 26) contains numerous such as iridium-rhenium? synthetic rubbers, such as those used misleading and, in some cases, incor- Are there opportunities for integrated for tank diaphragms, seals, and pro- rect statements. Here is why I believe propulsion system synergy? For in- pellant valves, as has been demon- this to be the case: stance, N2O4/N2H2 apogee engines strated repeatedly with hydrazine. •The statement that the exhaust can be combined with monopropellant •The statement that it takes two full plume composition from LMP-103S is hydrazine thrusters in a dual-mode sys- days with a crew of two extra people “mainly water vapor” is very hard to ac- tem which combines 315 to 325 per- and 20 specialists to load hydrazine cept, because its composition is de- formance where it is needed most, with propellant into a small spacecraft is scribed as a relatively benign blend of the flexibility and wide operating box ridiculous. I have personally been in- ammonium dinitramide (ADN), water, of conventional hydrazine thrusters for volved with loading hydrazine into methanol, and ammonia. What hap- ACS and other low thrust maneuvers. many large U.S. spacecraft. These op- pens to the C, N, CH4, NH4, etc., mole- Is it possible to introduce perform- erations have always been accom- cules, atoms/ions? Has the thruster ef- ance enhancements? For example, the plished with an experienced crew to- taling three or four people and no other specialists. Operations are usu- ally accomplished within a half day Events Calendar using modern loading equipment, not MAY 7-11 two full days. Reinventing Space Conference, Los Angeles, California. I contacted Aerojet about their Contact: 703/264-7500 views on this article, and received the following response: “As a world pre- MAY 14-18 mier supplier of hydrazine and hyper- Twelfth Spacecraft Charging Technology Conference, Kitakyushu, Japan. golic propulsion and a strong propo- Contact: Mengu Cho, 81 93 884 3228; [email protected] nent of green propulsion, Aerojet MAY 22-24 understands the challenges associated Global Space Exploration Conference, Washington, D.C. with developing a new propellant. We Contact: 703/264-7500 concur with Mr. Sackheim that both the positive aspects of the High Per- MAY 22-25 formance Green Propulsion (HPGP) Fifth International Conference on Research in Air Transportation, technology and the negatives and un- Berkeley, California. knowns should have been discussed Contact: Andres Zellweger, 301/330-5514 within the subject article. MAY 30-31 Robert L. Sackheim UAS Global Exhibition and Conference, Odense, Denmark. Sackheim Propulsion Associates Contact: http://uasglobal.info Yvonne C. Brill Propulsion system consultant
8 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2012 Creating a Sustainable Vision for Space
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11–13 September 2012 Pasadena Convention Center Pasadena, California
www.aiaa.org/space2012
Co-Chaired by Technical Program Co-Chaired by Organized by
AIAA Technical Activities Committee (TAC) Space and Missiles Group NASA Jet Propulsion U.S. Air Force Laboratory Space and Missile Systems Center
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Agreeing to agree on nothing
IN FEBRUARY, CONGRESS PASSED LEG- has 7,500, and drones make up about use of these aircraft becomes more islation that requires the FAA to draw one-third of all aircraft in the Air widespread.” up plans by 2015 to allow for com- Force. The Pentagon, which will bring Some believe things are looking mercial drones in national airspace. drones home when the war in Afghan- better for the FAA than they have in a To those who work with them, istan ends, wants the FAA to create long time. After years of temporary these robotic aircraft are called UAVs, regulations and procedures that will funding measures, the agency finally UASs, or remotely piloted vehicles let unarmed UAVs fly routinely around has formal, long-term appropriations. (the latter term is used only by the Air the country—outside military ranges— On March 15, it signed a four-year Force), but crews and maintainers still for training, natural disaster response, agreement with 15,000 air traffic con- call them drones. When they began to and homeland security missions. Tech- trollers that is expected to provide sta- proliferate about a decade ago, no nology experts predict that drones will bility for the workforce. Although the one envisioned that they would soon eventually be capable of safely flying agency is behind schedule on an array be bidding to share the sky with com- anywhere, sharing the airways with of issues, from NextGen ATC to estab- mercial airliners, executive jets, and your next commercial flight. lishing new pilot safety regulations, private planes. Until now, the FAA has banned observers say they see progress and The measure was inserted into the their widespread use because of con- expect things to get better when a National Defense Authorization Act, cerns that the unmanned planes can- new administrator is named. which President Barack Obama signed not see other aircraft and could cause LaHood had been speaking pub- into law last December. It orders the a crash. The agency currently allows licly on aviation issues while the FAA FAA to set up six ranges where the such flights only under special exemp- awaited a replacement for its former military and others can evaluate tech- tions, and it grants very few. Such cer- administrator Randy Babbitt, who re- nologies that will allow drones to fly tificates of authorization generally re- signed in January. In March, the presi- safely in public airspace. quire UAV operators to use a ground dent nominated Michael P. Huerta, the “These test sites will help us en- observer and a chase plane to ensure acting administrator, to fill that role on sure that our high safety standards are their drone does not endanger civilian a permanent basis. maintained as use of these aircraft be- aircraft, essentially canceling out the comes more widespread,” said Trans- benefits that unmanned aircraft offer. C-27J debate portation Secretary Ray LaHood in a “Unmanned aircraft can help us The Air Force is running up against statement. Officials in Washington see meet a number of challenges, from Capitol Hill resistance to its decision to hundreds of military versions being spotting wildfires to assessing natural retire new C-27J Spartan airlifters as brought home from Afghanistan, and disasters,” says LaHood. “These test part of the administration’s FY13 bud- the use of drones in the U.S. for law sites will help us ensure that our high get proposal. No C-27Js are being as- enforcement and commercial applica- safety standards are maintained as the signed to the active-duty force: All are tions is on the increase. slated for Air National Guard units, Critics see the legislation as a gift hometown wings and squadrons that to the industry that develops and man- enjoy tremendous support in the na- ufactures drones. The mandate is pri- tion’s capital. Debate over the aircraft marily the work of Rep. Henry Cuellar reflects larger concerns in Congress (D-Texas) and Rep. Howard P. ‘Buck’ about administration defense plans. McKeon (R-Calif.), who cochair the bi- Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), a sup- partisan ‘drone caucus’ (officially porter of the Air National Guard C-27J called the Congressional Unmanned airlift wing in Mansfield, Ohio, was Systems Caucus). This kind of provi- polite but stern as he grilled Michael sion is known in Washington as an un- Donley, secretary of the Air Force, and funded mandate—it directs the FAA to Gen. Norton Schwartz, USAF chief of take action but provides no money to staff, during testimony before the Sen- pay for doing so. ate Armed Services Committee on When the nation went to war after March 20. The Air Force’s program of the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the U.S. record for 38 C-27Js includes 12 air- military had about 50 drones. Today, it Rep. Henry Cuellar (left) and Rep. Howard P. craft now in service (including two de- ‘Buck’ McKeon
10 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2012 WATCHlayout0512_Layout 1 4/10/12 12:17 PM Page 3
ployed to Afghanistan from Ohio last year), five that are close to entering service, four still in production, and 17 more that, if the budget proposal is upheld, will never be built. The ser- vice had once intended to operate 78 of the planes. The C-27J has a convoluted his- tory. Ten copies of the earlier C-27A version entered service in 1991 and later received an upgrade but were re- tired in an economy move in 1999. The current C-27J began as the Army’s Future Cargo Aircraft, to replace the Army National Guard’s aging C-23 Sherpas. It evolved later into a bi- service program called the Joint Cargo Aircraft and still later into an Air Force- On Aug. 9, 2011, deployed members of the 179th Airlift Wing and their Army counterparts assumed only program. Italian planemaker Ale- command of the 702nd Expeditionary Airlift Squadron at Kandahar Airfield, Afghanistan. C-27Js were nia is on its third partner as U.S. prime selected for this mission because of their ability to use a short runway and their long flying capability, contractor, L3 Communications, a com- but deployment left the Mansfield Guard unit with just four of the aircraft. pany that is much respected in the de- fense field but has never previously ceived C-27J documentation from the to have six to eight airlift wings, all at managed an aircraft program. Air Force that is “confusing.” He also Air National Guard bases, each with Back in 2007, Alenia promised to called the material “inadequate” and just four aircraft apiece, except for build an aircraft assembly plant in “inconsistent.” He told the leaders, training wings, which would each Jacksonville, Florida, to turn out U.S. “We’d love to see more than Power- have six. A combat wing typically has C-27Js. The factory never materialized Point slides. We’d like to see some real 1,000 or more people and more typi- because the number of aircraft was re- analysis.” cally would operate 25-75 airplanes. duced from 78 to 38, too few to justify Donley countered that there are At Mansfield, 1,000 full- and part- the investment. Throughout its long many reasons for shelving the C-27J, time guardsmen belong to the wing gestation, the Italian-built C-27J had including the savings that will accrue that now has four C-27Js instead of the taken brickbats from some in Wash- from reducing the number of aircraft 10 C-130s it operated previously. ington for being ‘foreign’—although types in inventory: “How many fleets “Back when we had 10 airplanes we the U.S. industry has not designed an are we going to have to manage?,” thought we were a small unit,” says airlifter in its class. Donley asked rhetorically. He called retired Ohio guardsman Brig. Gen. Arguing his case for the twin-en- the four-engined C-130 Hercules, al- Fred Larson. “On the one day we had gined airlifter, Portman said he had re- ready in service in large numbers, all four C-27Js lined up out there, they “more flexible across the broader looked awfully lonely on that big air- range of tactical airlift requirements.” field,” he says. At one point, the ratio He also pointed to what the air staff of pilots to planes was such that the C- sees as a key drawback to the plane: 27J wing commander was not yet Unlike the C-130, which is maintained checked out in the C-27J. by airmen in uniform, the C-27J re- During the hearings, lawmakers quires contractor logistics and mainte- questioned Air Force figures for C-27J nance support. life-cycle costs, charging that separate Donley said the C-27J is “nice to Air Force assessments of these costs have,” but because it satisfies a “very vary from $111 million to $308 million narrow piece” of the Army’s missions, per aircraft. Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), it has to go. Ironically, he was making who chairs the committee, questioned all of the arguments that were made at Donley and Schwartz about the the inception of the program by those equally disparate flying-hour cost esti- who opposed it from the start. mates. One unit slated for the planes The plan for the C-27J has always is located in Levin’s home state of Michael Donley (left) and Gen. Norton Schwartz raised questions. The Pentagon wanted Michigan.
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Lawmakers in both No room for BRAC ter Pincus calls “the economic ‘perfect parties expressed satis- Capitol Hill dissatisfaction with the storm’ looming in December” after gu- faction that manufac- FY13 defense budget proposal ex- bernatorial, congressional, and presi- turer Alenia backed tends far beyond C-27J issues. Many dential elections on November 6. But away from saying that lawmakers in both parties, eager to in today’s Washington, BRAC is some- it would refuse to sup- support military installations in their thing that is not going to happen. port used C-27Js sold home districts, regard the budget pro- Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), the by the U.S. to third posal as a base realignment and clo- chair of the Senate Armed Services countries. The com- sure (BRAC) action in everything but Committee panel with jurisdiction pany hopes to sell the name, shrinking or shutting down over BRAC, vowed on March 22 to plane around the bases without following the compli- block any attempts this year to pre- world and had reacted cated procedures set forth in BRAC pare for a formal round of stateside Sen. Rob Portman strongly when it ap- legislation. The BRAC process was cre- base closures. Pentagon leaders have peared the Air Force ated by Congress to head off partisan- failed “to make a convincing case” that would dump 21 of them on the mar- ship in base-closing decisions, and the another BRAC round “would benefit ket Alenia is competing in with the term has become a verb. Now, some American taxpayers or national secu- same plane. Now that Australia is con- lawmakers say the proposal is an at- rity,” McCaskill stated in a press re- sidering a C-27J buy, CEO Giuseppi tempt to ‘BRAC’ them without the for- lease. “While I applaud the [Defense] Giordo says Alenia will support the mal process being followed. Department’s desire to find responsi- aircraft throughout the world. Whether A formal BRAC process, although ble places to achieve savings, there is the Air Force can really get rid of the not currently on the horizon, is exactly one area where there is absolutely no 21 planes will depend entirely on what the military wants, because it room for compromise this year: BRAC,”
what happens in budget deliberations would permit more sweeping cuts she wrote. this summer and in the fall. than any in the budget proposal. Many With Congress given a 13% ap- who follow military affairs in Washing- proval rating in a recent ABC News/ ton believe the nation has too many Washington Post poll—the lowest fig- bases, some sorely underused, and ure since polling began 40 years ago— that reducing infrastructure—buildings, it is easy to wonder whether leaders in grounds, water, electricity, roads—is Washington, in either party, are capa- the surest way to achieve savings in a ble of compromising on anything. The fairly quick and obvious way. unpopular defense budget proposal Congress has ignored the Penta- from the administration is part of an gon’s requests for additional rounds of attempt to comply with last year’s bi- BRAC, one to take place next year and partisan Budget Control Act, which re- another in 2015. Gen. Schwartz told quires cuts of $487 billion over 10 senators that the Air Force simply has years. If Congress cannot take the first Join us too much excess infrastructure and step to achieve cuts at that level, Pin- that without more BRAC rounds, “we cus asked in a March 22 column, “how will place the force...under more pres- will it ever hit the additional $1.2 tril- When you provide a hot meal to a disaster victim, or give blood to sure to put spending into excess ca- lion of overall reductions before se- someone you will never meet, train pacity when it should go into readi- questration on January 2?” in first aid, or help a member of our ness and modernization.” Sequestration is the lawfully man- military, you join the American BRAC is one obvious solution to dated reduction in federal spending Red Cross. what Washington Post columnist Wal- aimed at helping the nation’s debt and Your support makes the difference. deficit concerns, and the only way to Because of you, the Red Cross can prevent it from happening would be respond to nearly 200 neighborhood to change the law. But the timing emergencies every day. could not possibly be worse. In this Click, text or call to join today! election year, a lame-duck Congress will have to act on FY13 appropria- tions bills in December (after the bills are due, but ahead of the sequestra- 1-800-RED CROSS | redcross.org tion deadline) and will also have to Text REDCROSS to 90999 to give $10 raise the debt ceiling and act on the
Text REDCROSS to 90999 to make a $10 donation to the Red Cross. Charges will appear Bush-era tax cuts, which expire on on your wireless bill, or be deducted from your prepaid balance. Msg & Data rates may apply. December 31. Reply STOP to 90999 to STOP. Reply HELP to 90999 for HELP. Full terms and privacy Robert F. Dorr Sen. Claire McCaskill policy: redcross.org/m [email protected]
12 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2012 AIAA Progress in Astronautics and Aeronautics AIAA’s popular book series Progress in Astronautics and Aeronautics features books that present a particular, well- defi ned subject refl ecting advances in the fi elds of aerospace science, engineering, and/or technology. NEW RELEASES Tactical and Strategic Missile Guidance, Sixth Edition Paul Zarchan 900 pages (Available April 2012) This best-selling title provides an in-depth look at tactical and strategic missile guidance using common language, notation, and perspective. The sixth edition includes six new chapters on topics related to improving missile guidance system performance and understanding key design concepts and tradeoffs. New in 2012 – the original FORTRAN has been converted into the widely used MATLAB language. ISBN: 978-1-60086-894-0 List Price: $134.95 AIAA Member Price: $104.95 “AIAA Best Seller”
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12-0169 Find these books and many more at www.aiaa.org COVERSlayout0512_AA conversations 4/10/12 12:18 PM Page 2
Martin C. Faganterview by Frank Sietzen
You have played a major role in the and is in operational service. It repre- ily CENTCOM [Central Command], as space arena for many years, with sents a major change in space acquisi- opposed to experimenting with what the Air Force, the National Recon- tion and surveillance. The Air Force is seem to be useful things from the de- naissance Office, and as a top execu- closing the ORS office and moving its veloper’s point of view, which was the tive and now board member of function into the Space and Missiles case with the early ORS tacsats. Those MITRE. What catches your attention Systems Center in Los Angeles. were not built to a command’s re- with regard to space today? quirements. CENTCOM set out the re- The Operationally Responsive Why is ORS 1 so interesting? quirements for what ORS 1 should do, Space program, for one thing. ORS It is the first ORS satellite built to and they got it. Satellite 1 was launched not long ago the specifications of the users, primar- Tell us more about all that. The idea was to build a relatively Martin C. Faga retired as president and Faga has served on the Commission inexpensive satellite, I think on the or- CEO of MITRE in 2006, having held that for the Protection and Reduction of der of $150 million, maybe $200 mil- position for six years. Previously, he served Government Secrecy, the Jeremiah Panel lion, including cost of launch. A high- as senior vice president and general to review the mission and organization quality commercial satellite costs $750 manager of MITRE’s Center for Integrated of the NRO, several Defense Science million. NRO’s big and complex satel- Intelligence Systems and then as MITRE’s Board task forces, and the National lites go way up in cost from there, as executive vice president. Commission for the Review of the NRO. you can imagine. There is a tradeoff in He is a fellow of the National Academy terms of performance, but the hope is From 1989 to 1993, before joining MITRE, of Public Administration and a member that the essential performance is avail- Faga was assistant secretary of the Air of the board of directors of Alliant able in ORS 1. Force for space, responsible for overall Techsystems, GeoEye, the Association First user reports are favorable. If supervision of Air Force space matters. for Intelligence Officers, and the Space users really like it—if they conclude At the same time, he served as director Foundation. He also has served on the that the sat’s performance gives them of the National Reconnaissance Office, board of directors of Electronic Data most of what they need—then, be- responsible to the secretary of defense Systems, the President’s Intelligence cause it is relatively inexpensive, they and the director of central intelligence Advisory Board, and the Public Interest can have a lot more of them and have for the development, acquisition, Declassification Board. greater assurance of coverage if there and operation of all U.S. satellite are losses. Then, conceivably, satel- reconnaissance programs. Faga received lites of that ilk could become the UAVs bachelor’s and Other facets of Faga’s career include of the future. master’s degrees service as a staff member of the Perma- in electrical nent Select Committee on Intelligence So you would call ORS 1 a small sat? engineering from of the House of Representatives, where Yes, it’s a small sat for military use. Lehigh Univer- he headed the program and budget It doesn’t press the state of the art, and sity in 1963 and staff; as an engineer at the CIA; and as it is not highly classified. 1964. an R&D officer for the Air Force. What does this mean for future Faga has been awarded the National space acquisition? Does it signal a Intelligence Distinguished Service sweeping reformation, a switch to Medal, the Dept. of Defense Distin- small surveillance satellites and guished Public Service Medal, the away from the big, very expensive Air Force Exceptional Civilian satellites that NRO built and oper- Service Medal, and the ated all through the Cold War and NASA Distinguished Serv- beyond? ice Medal. In 2004, That’s going too far. There is he was awarded the room for and need for both. The point Intelligence Community a lot of people miss about reconnais- Seal Medallion. sance and surveillance is that they
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Interview by James W. Canan
take different forms and involve differ- combat is, but that’s usually pretty lim- by electronic means and never have to ent requirements. ited in scope. do anything physical, like hitting it We need very high performing re- with a kinetic kill vehicle. connaissance satellites like the tradi- In the surveillance scenarios you tional NRO birds to try to find things mention, it would seem that space Is all this getting almost too compli- on the surface of the Earth that we assets are becoming more important cated to handle? never knew anything about; but once than ever. This raises another issue: Maybe, but we have to handle it, we’ve detected those things, we want the prospect of adversaries attack- and I don’t think we’re working hard to watch what they do and keep track ing our satellites. Talk about that. enough to do it. There’s lots of talk of what’s going on there. Watching It’s always possible, and it would about handling it, but there is not what we already know about requires not have to be a physical attack on our enough happening to detect and pro- a lot less performance in a satellite. satellites. It could be electronic inter- tect against attacks on space assets. Military commanders usually know ference or some kind of space-based We’re not doing enough to put detec- what their targets are. What they need or ground-based laser. There are lots tion and self-protection mechanisms to keep finding out is where those tar- of ways to screw up satellites. That on board our satellites, for example, gets are at the moment, right now— said, it isn’t easy to do. so we would know what’s happening where they may have moved. to them and be able to do something Would it constitute an act of war? about it. We’re not doing enough in And this distinction ushers in small First, we must be absolutely posi- space-based space surveillance, con- sats for surveillance? tive that it was an attack. If a satellite sidering what precious strategic assets It changes the name of the is out of commission for a period of space systems are. game, from having only a relatively time, was it someone sending us a few, very high performance, very ex- message? Did something happen dur- A few years back, the Air Force gave pensive sats to having, along with ing that period of time? Do we need to high priority to space protection them, smaller, cheaper, less capable take some action? We frequently get and space situational awareness satellites for much more rapid, re- unintentional interference with our programs. I gather it hasn’t followed peated surveillance of targeted areas. satellites. For example, ground com- through well enough on all that, in In this regard, I think there is too munications systems can and do occa- your opinion? much emphasis in people’s minds sionally disrupt satellite communica- No. In fact, I think everybody re- about the surveillance of only the im- tions on certain frequencies. sponsible for space situational aware- mediate battlefield. In fact, com- manders may want to know what’s happening 100 miles or 500 miles “[Satellites are] the nervous system of our military today, from the battlefield area. Are other and if the right nerves are blocked, even temporarily, troops and equipment moving in? Is basically the whole network can be taken down.” another party entering the picture? Russia? China? Iran? Disruptions like that happen all ness would acknowledge that it isn’t Would you say that this surveillance the time. So the mere fact that we sufficient, and that, programmatically, capability is all the more important have interference of some kind does it is declining now. So space protec- now that the Pentagon is shifting its not tell us that we are under attack. tion is in jeopardy. strategic focus to the Asia/Pacific re- gion and the Middle East, and away Pretty scary stuff, though. Not enough money? from Europe? Satellites are so important to us Everything comes down to com- Yes. They are vast expanses. China now. They’re the nervous system of petition for money. But this also has to is a very big country, and we are not our military today, and if the right do with perception of a threat and be- going to be able to cover it with UAVs. nerves are blocked, even temporarily, ing willing to meet it. One of the most They can’t go there, politically. UAVs basically the whole network can be valuable lessons I had as a young Air are absolutely the sensors of choice taken down. Which is to say again that Force captain came from talking to a for close-in surveillance of where the an adversary might get to the satellite Viet Nam vet about how to protect
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against a particular threat. Very sol- Air Force space acquisition seems force by paying employees generous emnly, he said, “Marty, that’s a threat I to be doing well. My sense is that separation money to get them to have not yet seen, and I don’t have things are going better at SMC [Air leave. The best people—the most enough money or enough program to Force Space and Missile Systems Cen- highly skilled and experienced peo- work the threats that I actually see and ter] than they had been. There are a ple—will take the money and move on know, let alone those I haven’t even lot fewer troubled programs. And Air to another job, because they are still in seen.” So that’s one part of it. Force leaders say they will fully sup- demand. The people who are not in Another is that there may be more port space as part of the new defense demand, because they do not have threats to protect against than we can strategy. The director of the NRO has the most current skills and haven’t adequately cover, including physical stated publicly that all of his programs demonstrated the greatest capability, attacks, cyber threats, other means of are ‘green.’ The problematic period for do not leave. disruption—in every arena, not just NRO programs that you mentioned We have learned not to do early- in space. was roughly 2000-2005. We’re seven out, that management has to identify years past that and doing well, and I the lowest performers and let them But don’t we have to meet all of them, think it’s due to a lot of factors, in- go. It is painful, but that is what you regardless? Can we afford to ignore cluding some good leadership. have to do. You also do not want to or slight any of them? encourage the people nearest retire- The Air Force has an aging aircraft That stretch had a bright side, didn’t ment to leave earlier. When capable force that requires lots of money to it? Much was accomplished in space, people get to within five or 10 years of modernize. Does it have enough to do it seemed. retirement and have 30 or 35 years of that and everything else required to Even when some programs were experience, they are usually high per- meet all possible threats? At the end of going badly, many others were going formers and highly experienced, and the day, our leaders say they under- well. Space programs are always diffi- you do not want to lose them. stand that a particular threat may exist cult, and bad things can always hap- or may come to exist, but they need to pen. Chances are, in the coming cut- Funding problems seem to be plagu- see it. backs, space programs will be treated ing NASA programs too. Can you talk I don’t blame them for looking at unwisely in the budgeting process. about that? it that way. But I think something bad They are multiyear efforts requiring I don’t think NASA is losing a lot will happen in space someday, and consistent multiyear funding, and if of money in the budget. But they are everybody will say, oh gee, now we we keep changing the funding of any not getting enough money to procure see it, and now we have to do some- program from year to year, we are go- their total program. I don’t know much thing about it. And then the acquisition ing to take it off track. Maybe testing about their allocations for unmanned people will say that it takes planetary exploration, or for five years or so—a multi- aeronautical research, for ex- year program—to build the “It’s like buying insurance, where you say, ample. I do know that there’s means of doing something yeah, I can see that I’ll need the insurance, a lot going on in those cate- about it. So all through that but it will cost me thousands of dollars a year, gories, and some changes period, our adversary will and I can’t afford it right now. Maybe later.” proposed in their budgets. have the advantage. And it Where NASA is really in could be fatal. trouble, of course, is in space and design reviews will be trimmed, transportation and the human space I have to ask: If a threat turns out to or the program will be stretched, and program. We don’t have a way to be so dire, why wouldn’t our leaders then contractors won’t be able to keep space. We have the Space Launch have seen it coming and taken steps their most highly skilled and experi- System in development but probably to counter it? enced ‘A’ teams on the programs, be- not enough money to do it. And most It’s like buying insurance, where cause their skills are required for an- important, we don’t have a sensible, you say, yeah, I can see that I’ll need other commercial project that needs widely accepted objective for human the insurance, but it will cost me thou- immediate attention. space activity. Some say it should be sands of dollars a year, and I can’t af- Mars, others say we should go to the ford it right now. Maybe later. Corporate personnel issues can be a Moon first, or an asteroid. big negative in all this, too, can’t they? How are our space programs in Yes. Funding issues and person- What would you recommend? general faring now, following a bad nel issues. We have found that a vol- Once we establish a requirement stretch of cost overruns and techni- untary ‘early out’ policy, for example, for human exploration of space, we cal problems? is very unwise—trimming the work- need to ask what are the sensible
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steps, what are the objectives, what is not the White House or any other arm then, when we were really worried the time frame. What we cannot do is of government. Let NASA propose to about the existential threat of a large- simply say we need to have a top-pri- the political leadership something that scale nuclear war that could wipe us ority program to go to Mars or any- people are prepared to support, as op- out. That threat came from large-scale where else, period. What we should posed to NASA holding on and waiting forces, missiles and aircraft, perfect for satellite reconnaissance. We don’t have that now. “We are an increasingly short-term-oriented society, whether it’s companies and their emphasis on quarterly What do we have? results, or politicians measuring everything in terms of We have smaller scale threats, al- their two- or four- or six-year terms of office.” though perhaps more of them. NRO is still enormously productive, and its to- tal contribution from its space constel- say is we will commit to spending $5 until the political leadership tells it lations is greater than at any time in billion or $10 billion a year on explo- what to do. NASA leadership is key. the past. But NRO is still regarded dif- ration, and then a combination of Constant change in long-term ob- ferently by our political and military things will happen: Technologies to jectives from administration to admin- leadership, and understandably so, in support humans in space will evolve, istration consumes NASA and won’t terms of its importance relative to the means to get to space will evolve, get us there. everything else. planetary exploration and other space science programs will help identify Does NASA’s long history of success Tell us more about how you see to- things that we want to learn through help guide it now, do you suppose? day’s threats. human space exploration. Many people in the space field I think the big risk today is when In short, we should concentrate want NASA to recapture the glamour an adversary calls us up and says on funding and building capabilities, of the era of Apollo. It’s never going ‘checkmate’ because his cyber attack as opposed to having an eight-year to happen. NASA can be exciting, but has taken out our banking system, or program that has to achieve certain goals and has to cost “Let NASA propose to the political leadership something that this or that amount of money—and having no clear people are prepared to support, as opposed to NASA holding on idea how to do all of that. and waiting until the political leadership tells it what to do.”
You are advocating the long view here, right? it is never going to be Apollo again. our municipal water systems, our elec- Yes—a long-term deal, 20 or 25 People who have been involved in the tric power and telecommunications. years, in which we continuously de- National Reconnaissance Office, many Extreme? Yes, but increasingly plausi- velop our manned space capability of them my contemporaries there, see ble, because we are increasingly net- and continuously develop a plan to do the need to go back to the days of the worked. What if our banks don’t work what we decide is most important to 1960s and 1970s with NRO. I tell them, any more because their records have do in space. We need to establish pri- it is never going to happen. The world been compromised in a cyber attack orities and follow through on them. has changed. and no one is sure how much money they have, or if they have any at all. Will our political system and govern- Go back how? In what respect? Banks would immediately be mobbed, ment planning and budgeting pro- Back to being a covert organiza- and they wouldn’t have the people or cesses permit all that? tion with great flexibility in its use of the physical structure or the online ca- We are an increasingly short-term- money, and with ready support for all pability to handle it. Can you imagine oriented society, whether it’s compa- the appropriations it requests. That day the riots? nies and their emphasis on quarterly is over. results, or politicians measuring every- Given all that, are you pessimistic or thing in terms of their two- or four- or Why? Doesn’t NRO still stand guard optimistic about the future of space, six-year terms of office. in space against today’s threats? the future of our country? To do what I suggest for space, NRO was a fundamental strategic I am optimistic. There are always maybe the most useful thing that asset in the Cold War. It is still a strate- lots of difficulties, but I believe the could happen would be some really gic asset, but it is not seen in quite the country responds well to threats and thoughtful proposals by NASA itself, same strategic terms as it was back problems when they are understood.
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Snaring a piece of the sky
A TEAM OF EXPERTS ORGANIZED BY The seemingly quixotic idea of shops at Cal Tech to the concept. This the Keck Institute for Space Studies snaring a small asteroid has been pro- author contributed to the study, led by (KISS) wants NASA and its partners to posed before. Science fiction writers JPL’s John Brophy, Cal Tech’s Fred grab a nearby asteroid and return it to have long been drawn to the idea of Culick, and the Planetary Society’s Lou cislunar space, opening the door to as- capturing a near-Earth asteroid and Friedman. The Asteroid Retrieval Fea- tronaut operations, scientific explora- propelling it back to Earth orbit, there sibility study had three goals: tion, and commercial mining of these to be mined or dropped on the head •Determine the feasibility of roboti- ancient, chemically diverse bodies. of some observatory-deficient, down- cally capturing and returning a small The robotic mission to retrieve a ward-looking enemy. Space futurists NEA to Earth’s vicinity, using technol- near-Earth asteroid (NEA) roughly 7 m contemplate capturing large asteroids ogy available within this decade. across fits neatly into NASA’s plans for into cislunar space to provide mega- •Identify the benefits of such an en- human missions to larger asteroids, tons of recoverable metals and vola- deavor to NASA, the science and aero- and would establish another science- tiles. Five years ago, Constellation en- space communities, and society. and resource-rich destination for astro- gineers examined the possibilities of •Identify how such a mission could nauts in cislunar space. Visits to the having astronauts grapple a basket- aid NASA and its partners in their plans captured asteroid from either LEO or ball-sized asteroid onto their Orion for human exploration beyond LEO. an Earth-Moon L2 outpost could build spacecraft and returning it to Earth. human spaceflight experience and re- A KISS-commissioned team exam- Why reach for an asteroid? duce the risks of deep-space voyages ined the feasibility of an asteroid cap- NASA is already sending robots to as- to the Sun-Earth Lagrange points and ture and retrieval mission, devoting six teroids: Dawn is orbiting Vesta, and accessible NEAs. months of analysis and two work- OSIRIS-REx launches in 2016 to the C-type NEA 1999 RQ36, aiming to re- turn a 2-oz sample to Earth in 2023. The agency’s Human Exploration and Operations Directorate (HEO) plans to conduct astronaut NEA expeditions by 2025. These missions, meant to last six months or more, will characterize, sample, and prospect objects tens to hundreds of meters in diameter. However, proposed NASA budgets fall short of a 2025 NEO mission capa- bility, and several major preparatory steps for such an expedition have yet to be tackled. Specifically, the agency has yet to obtain funds to launch a space-based search for smaller NEAs, which are more numerous and so sta- tistically more likely to be accessible via the Orion/Space Launch System. Nor can HEO afford precursor asteroid missions, designed to scout the way for astronaut expeditions. These de- lays stack up: If it takes 10 years to conduct the search and compile a list of possible human targets, the need for subsequent robot scouting mis- sions will force the first human NEA After matching spin rate and orientation with the asteroid target, the ACR spacecraft closes in to swallow expedition well past 2025. it within the capture mechanism. Cinching cables would tighten to retain and restrain the asteroid for despin and SEP transport back to cislunar space. Artist credit: Rick Sternbach/KISS. This timing opens up a window
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Mission overview The Asteroid Capture and Return (ACR) mission would be executed by a robotic spacecraft employing solar- electric propulsion (SEP). Launched into LEO by an Atlas-V-class booster, the spacecraft deploys its 10.7-m ar- rays and, under ion thrust, spirals out to the Moon in about two years. Suc- cessive lunar gravity assists help the SEP execute an escape from Earth’s gravity; cruise to the asteroid takes an- other two years. The ACR spacecraft could snare and retrieve Once rendezvous with the target is surface boulders on larger, easier-to-discover NEAs. achieved, the spacecraft determines These large boulders on Itokawa were imaged by Hayabusa on Oct. 23, 2005, from a distance of the object’s spin state, diameter, and 4.7 km. Credit: CJAXA. surface topography. Deploying a flex- ible, wide-mouthed fabric capture bag, place the NEA in a high lunar orbit. the ACR spacecraft moves in, matches From there, an uncontrolled asteroid NASA will launch a spacecraft to an asteroid in rotation, then engulfs and ‘hugs’ the would be driven by gravitational per- 2016 and use a robotic arm to pluck samples asteroid. After capture, the spacecraft turbations to an impact on the Moon. that could better explain our solar system’s thrusters stabilize and despin the ob- formation and how life began. OSIRIS-REx will ject, and the SEP system begins a 2-6- Finding a target be the first U.S. mission to carry samples from year transit to Earth. Can we expect to find by 2020 a set of an asteroid back to Earth. Credit: University of Arizona. The NEA target diameter of around 7-m asteroids with orbits accessible to 7 m was chosen to maximize the the ACR ion propulsion system? The for a robotic foray to grab a small NEA probability of finding a suitable target good news is that there are many mil- (or pluck a large boulder from a larger using ground-based telescopes, yet lions of NEAs smaller than 10 m across asteroid), then move it into a safe minimize the propellant needed to re- (a 10-m object has a mass of roughly parking orbit around the Moon. There, turn the asteroid to cislunar space. 1.5 million kg). But these small objects robots and astronauts can literally dis- The captured NEA would have a mass are very faint to ground-based tele- mantle the object in the name of sci- anywhere from 250,000 to 1 million kg, scopes, visible only when close to ence, operations experience, planetary roughly equal to that of the ISS. (Six Earth. Today only a few dozen small, defense engineering, and commercial Apollo missions returned 382 kg of lu- suitably accessible NEAs are known, prospecting. nar samples to Earth.) Even this mas- and we have no information on their The retrieval of a sizeable, well- sive an object poses little danger to spectral type or composition. A con- chosen body will enable a revolution Earth: C-type asteroids possess very certed search to find a set of accessi- in scientific analysis of primitive mate- low physical strength and would break ble NEAs will be necessary if the ACR rials dating back to the solar system’s up upon atmospheric entry. To further mission is to be launched within a origin. Equally important will be the ensure safety, the ACR mission will decade. benefits of putting astronauts, operat- The ideal asteroid target will be a ing in the Moon’s vicinity by the C-type object, thought to be similar to 2020s, in contact with bulk asteroidal carbonaceous chondrite meteorites. material. Astronauts, perhaps operat- Such materials can yield as much as ing from the EM L2 Lagrange point, 40% by mass of recoverable volatiles, would get repeated opportunities to in roughly equal parts water and com- test proximity operations, evaluate an- plex carbon compounds. The residue choring gear, repeatedly examine a after volatile extraction is about 30% two-story-tall asteroid, set up water native iron and nickel. To identify C- and resource-extraction equipment, type targets, the search campaign must and obtain the civil engineering infor- rapidly cue follow-up observations to mation needed for effective planetary detect spectral features indicative of defense. Follow-up missions could fo- water-bearing surface minerals. cus on commercial exploitation of the The study estimated that a low- NASA’s Dawn satellite is already orbiting the hundreds of tons of NEA feedstock. large asteroid Vesta. cost ground-based telescopic cam-
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paign could sort through the 3,500 new NEA discoveries made each year and identify about five ‘good’ ACR 6. Asteroid operations (90 days: candidates. These would possess the deploy bag, capture and right size, mass, shape, spin state, re- detumble asteroid) quired C3 launch energy, synodic pe- riod, and water-rich composition. ASTEROID ORBIT
How to steal an asteroid 5. Cruise to asteroid 7. Return to lunar orbit 9. Transfer to high NASA Glenn’s COMPASS design team, (1.7 years) (2-6 years) lunar orbit working with the KISS study staff, de- veloped an ACR spacecraft concept 4. Lunar gravity assist based on existing space systems. The 8. Lunar gravity assist MOON’S ORBIT 6-m spacecraft bus is flanked by a pair 3. Spiral out to Moon of 10.7-m solar arrays to power the 40- 2. Separation and (2.2 years) kW SEP system. Atop the bus is S/A deployment stowed an inflatable, 10x15-m capture bag. The solar array wings span some 407-KM LEO CIRCULAR ORBIT 36 m, making for a large spacecraft, but it’s going after big game. 1. Launch The SEP system consists of five gimbaled Hall thrusters (four plus a spare) and a set of seven xenon tanks EARTH holding 12,000 kg of propellant. The system operates at a specific impulse of 3,000 sec. During NEA proximity and despin operations, ACR uses a bi- propellant reaction control system em- and snug it up against the spacecraft the asteroid into a high lunar orbit, ploying four sets of thruster quads. to provide the surface contact neces- where roughly 10 m/sec of delta-V an- Opposite the Hall thrusters are the sary for despinning. About 300 kg of nually will suffice to maintain it there sensor package and capture mecha- propulsion is sufficient to detumble for at least 20 years. Total cost for the nism. To characterize the NEA and the roughly 500-ton asteroid. The bag mission is estimated at roughly $2.6 provide guidance during proximity fabric has the right surface thermal billion over a decade (in 2012 dollars). and capture operations, ACR carries properties to maintain the asteroid at four science cameras, four guidance or below its temperature at grapple. Exploiting ‘The Rock’ cameras, an illumination system, a pair Should search programs fail to dis- The captured asteroid, tended by its of LIDARs, and a pair of near-IR sci- cover enough small, C-type NEAs to ACR spacecraft, would then be open ence spectrometers. Redundancy in enable capture of a free-flying aster- to intensive exploration, exploitation, the imaging systems is crucial, giving oid, the team suggested an alternate, and dissection by both robotic and as- flight controllers the necessary situa- ‘pick up a rock’ approach. The ACR tronaut visits. NASA and its partners tional awareness during approach and spacecraft would rendezvous instead could sequence a series of robotic sci- capture. with a larger, roughly 100-m asteroid entific missions to the object, much as Once deployed, the capture mech- and target a surface boulder for re- cargo traffic is controlled at the ISS, anism resembles the open end of a trieval. The ACR capture mechanism conducting in-situ analysis, Earth sam- funnel. The mechanism combines in- would be flown over a suitable boul- ple return, resource extraction demon- flatable deployment arms, two or der and the bag cinched closed. RCS strations, and assessment of physical more inflated circumferential hoops, a thrusters would then pull the boulder and chemical properties. high-strength fabric bag, and cinching free of the regolith and the asteroid’s As astronauts set up shop at the cables. The inflatable arms and hoops milli-g gravity. If a boulder won’t come EM L2 ‘line shack’ and habitat now be- hold the bag open as the spacecraft loose, a snow-blower-style scoop at ing evaluated by NASA for the early matches the asteroid spin and eases the mouth of the capture bag could 2020s, the captured asteroid would be over the asteroid. The bag can contain gather tons of regolith into the fabric a natural destination. Orion sorties to an irregular object roughly 6x12 m in enclosure for return to Earth. the NEA would be, in effect, human dimension, with a surface that is either On return to cislunar space, the asteroid missions, reducing the risk for solid, or weak and crumbly. ACR craft and asteroid in-tow perform the full-fledged NEA missions to fol- Once the asteroid is enveloped, a lunar gravity assist and are captured low. An Orion crew could conduct cinching cables draw the bag closed by Earth. Additional SEP thrusting puts multiple approaches, rehearse proxim-
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ity operations, anchor, and ‘dock’ to the asteroid. Astronauts would gradually peel back the capture bag, drawing back the curtain, so to speak, on an ancient, resource-rich asteroid. Close-up exam- ination would reveal its morphology, composition, and ‘topography,’ and assess the physical state of its soil and bedrock. Gamma ray and neutron spectrometers would measure bulk composition before dissection begins. Crew surface activities would pro- gress from surface sampling to core sampling to testing anchoring strate- gies to extraction of water and other volatiles and finally to demonstrations of various bulk material handling and mining techniques. These activities would greatly advance asteroid sci- ence, human operations, resource ex- traction, and planetary defense engi- neering. Each Orion crew could return about 100 kg of material to Earth for An 8-m boulder that crashed down a hillside into an Ohio house in March is about the size of the small analysis. After in-depth study, NASA asteroid the ACR mission would return to high lunar orbit. Credit: G.S. Springer. and its partners could negotiate the handover of hundreds of tons of aster- man deep space expeditions in five tracting ores and tapping this new oidal material to commercial mining specific ways: wealth from space. and resource delivery interests. •As a robotic precursor mission, The ACR mission also invites inter- ACR rehearses many of the phases of national cooperation in target search, International exploration context an astronaut NEA expedition and feeds hardware design and delivery, scien- The ACR study showed that the tech- that experience forward. tific study, commercial exploitation, nologies needed for the mission—SEP, •ACR enables ‘local’ astronaut trips and planetary defense engineering (by high-power solar arrays, trajectory de- to an NEA lasting only a few weeks, definition, ACR is an ‘asteroid deflec- sign, autonomous proximity and cap- building a bridge between LEO opera- tion mission’). ture operations, and capture bag tions and true deep-space expeditions. Taken together, these benefits mechanisms—are all in hand or could •Putting tons of bulk asteroidal ma- might entice NASA and its partners to be flight qualified by 2020. The pro- terial within reach of a human-tended develop ACR. The result would be a posed space-based IR survey mission EM L2 facility enhances the scientific, demonstrated deep-space capability NASA needs to identify hazardous economic, and operational value of that has not been seen since Apollo. NEAs and promising human explo- such an exploration gateway. The returned asteroid would put the ration targets would also help discover •The availability of hundreds of Orion astronauts in touch with an an- the candidates for ACR. tons of asteroidal feedstock opens the cient, scientifically intriguing, and com- Thus, the capture and return of a door to large-scale use of extraterres- mercially valuable body beyond the 500-ton asteroid to cislunar space trial resources by NASA and its com- Moon, an achievement that would could be accomplished by the middle mercial partners, with the potential to compare very favorably to missions of the next decade. This delivery date jump-start an entire space-based in- that appear to merely repeat those fits well into the progression of human dustry to produce propellants and ra- Apollo landings of a half-century ago. spaceflight capabilities NASA envi- diation shielding. NASA should take a good look at the sions through 2030. If human NEA •The challenging, lengthy process ACR concept as it looks to construct missions are delayed by budgetary or of dissecting a 500-ton asteroid will an affordable path into deep space. technical problems, the robotic ACR engage the public and provide a The Asteroid Retrieval Feasibility mission bridges the waning years of steady stream of ‘real-time’ exploration report is available via http://kiss.cal- ISS operations and paves the way for experiences inviting community prob- tech.edu/people/contact.html. true NEA expeditions. lem-solving. Imagine a televised, team Tom Jones The ACR mission seems to offer an competition aimed at coming up with [email protected] affordable, logical step supporting hu- the best and cheapest methods of ex- www.AstronautTomJones.com
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Jetliner demand: The changing landscape
IN THE 1980S, AN AIRCRAFT MARKET riers, and ‘financially troubled TWA.’ time in decades, new airlines cropped forecaster could safely do his job with- There was little to gain from paying at- up, such as JetBlue, easyJet, Ryanair, out paying much attention to the air- tention to the details—all that mattered and Air Asia. Entry barriers probably lines themselves. That sounds strange, was that the airline industry had high fell too far too fast, resulting in the but a dozen years or so after deregu- barriers to exit and entry. The struc- brief and strange lives of Independ- lation in 1978, airlines were a remark- ture of the industry, therefore, did not ence Air and Skybus, but the industry ably static industry. A few stumbled change in ways that materially af- had changed. Because of these LCCs, and fell, but aside from Pan Am and fected jetliner demand. aided and abetted by Internet fare Eastern, for the most part nobody transparency, fares and yields came went away, and nobody other than Lower barriers for low-cost carriers down at precipitous rates. Southwest successfully joined the About a dozen years ago, barriers to As a result, everyone became a club. Troubled legacy airlines then entry got lower. Or the new entrants low-fare carrier. The only question air- were like insolvent European coun- got smarter. Either way, more low-cost lines faced was whether or not they tries today: You knew they were hurt- carriers (LCCs) seized domestic market were also a low-cost carrier. To put it ing, but you also knew that one day share, exceeding 30% in some mar- another way, the industry had a short- they would buy things again. kets. They also began taking planes, age of 8 cents per seat-mile capacity Through the 1990s there was a particularly single-aisle models, help- and an oversupply of 13 cents per seat- classic joke: Question: How many air- ing single-aisle production reach rec- mile capacity. lines will there be in 2025? Answer: ord highs as a part of total industry Carnage predictably followed. Bar- Three—two globally merged megacar- output (53% last year). For the first riers to exit had been torn down. As
COMMERCIAL JETLINERS HISTORY AND FORECAST DANGEROUS WORDS: IT REALLY IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME
1,500 $120
100 1,200
80
900
60 Units
600 Market in 2012 $billions value
40
300 20
0 0 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 Units Value Airbus, Boeing, CSeries only; includes KC46
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When the Airbus A320Neo and Boeing 737Max become available, there will be an increase in single-aisle jet demand.
economist Larry Summers recently tional and structural improvements, it most everyone charges for bags, and commented, one hallmark of our all comes down to technology. John everyone has removed every blanket times is that big changes take longer Newhouse’s timeless book, The Sporty from the airplane. It is no longer just to happen than you would think they Game, shows that civil jetliners were Southwest that keeps costs low and would, but when they start happening actually a more dynamic industry than domestic flight amenities minimal. they happen faster than you would their military counterparts. With war- Therefore, in a world where every- ever expect. In the U.S. and Europe, fare, however, there is a technology one is closer to doing the right things names are going away fast. There has spectrum. At one end, technology is to save money, where everyone has been creative destruction. not so important. With guerrilla and moved toward LCC operating proce- Think about the names that have counterinsurgency warfare, with urban dures, the carriers are all like tanks disappeared over the past few years or jungle warfare, technology matters shooting at each other in the desert. (even if they survive as superficial less than tactics, unit cohesion, leader- Operational concerns and procedures brand identities): Swissair, Northwest, ship, morale, doctrine, organization, have been equalized. It all comes KLM, Continental, and others. Just in and many other less tangible factors. down to what technology a carrier has, the past few months Spanair and At the other end of the conflict and the resulting fuel bills. Equipment Malev have followed. We’ll see what spectrum you have antisubmarine fuel burn is the only remaining major becomes of American. And even the warfare, antiaircraft defense, or tank cost area that carriers can change. fast-growth emerging markets feel this battles over open terrain. There, tech- And, of course, fuel now costs destruction. That joke about TWA in nology is paramount. The other fac- four times as much as it did in 2000. 2025 will not be updated with ‘finan- tors matter less. When two tank forces Meanwhile, domestic travel is a com- cially troubled Kingfisher.’ shoot at each other in a desert, good modity service. Given the low margins As a result, almost all of the surviv- leadership and other ‘soft’ factors mat- in the airline business, carriers are run- ing carriers today are low-fare and ter a lot less than having the best laser ning fast just to stay in the same place low-cost airlines. As Samuel Johnson rangefinder and the best gun. in relative terms. noted, there is nothing like the sight of The airline industry is moving to- the gallows to focus the mind. Mergers ward the technology end of the spec- The refleet factor and bankruptcies have worked their trum. Remember, everyone is a low- So, the U.S. is like an airline refleeting magic, if you can call it that, on the cost carrier. Nobody has huge lease tinderbox. On the positive side, look- landscape. It was ugly to watch —80% obligations on 30-seat jets anymore. ing at opportunities, U.S. carriers can of airline mergers give the other 20% a Nobody has absurdly heterogeneous in many cases skip a generation, going bad name—but it happened. fleet plans anymore. Nearly everyone from MD-80s, older 320s, and 737 So, increasingly over the last dec- has gotten rid of difficult pension obli- classics to Neos and Maxes. On the ade, a jet production forecaster had to gations. They have been washed away negative side, looking at threats, if look at a changing industry landscape through bankruptcy and restructuring. your competitor refleets with these and understand the requirements for And operationally, nobody has new planes and you do not, you’re this new airline industry. equipment sitting around at hubs for toast. Since the cost savings associated two hours any more. Legacy carriers with moving to new equipment ex- The technology spectrum may not have Southwest’s turnaround ceeds airline profit margins, there is a The first conclusion is that in a world times, but they have made a lot of huge cost disadvantage of being left of impressive industry-wide opera- progress moving in that direction. Al- behind in the refleet game.
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We will see a considerable run-up in single-aisle jet demand after Neo and Max come on line. In the two years before they enter service, there will be a narrowbody rate dip. There is no way to avoid demand migrating from the current single-aisle models to the new ones. But the years after these two new planes enter service will see single-aisle production numbers above the very high record rates currently planned for the following year. This U.S. airline refleet factor plays a major role in driving Teal Group’s commer- cial jetliner forecast, particularly after 2016. The Bombardier CSeries business If the Bombardier CSeries is ever going to make it, now may be the time. case may not be the soundest, but if the CSeries has a chance, this is it. Just routes. But this again represents an- jetmakers must keep their products fi- as the MD-80 series, a marginal player, other example of running just to stay nance-friendly. That means fewer op- profited from its availability during the in place. After all, everyone has exactly tions and greater flexibility. It is all late 1980s boom market, the CSeries the same idea. about making sure that jets are easily might conceivably benefit from a sud- remarketable and that they retain their den North America refleet where jet Access to finance value in a changing airline industry availability becomes a major concern. Another conclusion is that looking at landscape. We will see a bias in favor Twin aisles are another story. In- the past and present state of the indus- of known producers with strong resid- ternational traffic is less of a commod- try, these airlines will not have much ual-value track records. This means ity product than domestic traffic, and money. And what they have they will even greater challenges for emerging technology is somewhat less impor- not want to spend on aircraft. How- manufacturers, who already face an tant. For U.S. carriers, there is a lot to ever, after industry restructuring de- uphill ride. be said for coasting with upgrades to cides who will survive, and after pen- existing equipment. It is clear that U.S. sion overhangs are removed, the Government’s role carriers must get serious about grow- airlines will be good finance candi- Government support will be part of ing their international exposure, and dates. The third-party finance people’s the answer to this challenge, for better in particular they need to get serious core specialty is getting access to cash or worse. Whether through govern- about chasing international premium at good rates. ment-owned airlines, government- traffic. Everyone has to move to lie-flat Access to finance is the biggest owned banks and sovereign wealth business-class seating and other amen- risk moving forward. Right now, we funds, or government export credit ities, and to add more international are at record high jetliner production agencies, the role of governments rates, but the production around the world in jetliner transac- ramp-up is at an extraordi- tions has ramped up to over two- nary angle. Output will thirds of the market. grow 18.6% this year, with Until recently, the U.S. Export-Im- a 16% compound annual port Bank, which increased its back- growth rate through 2014. stop finance role over the past three If manufacturers’ delivery years to about one-third of Boeing plans work out, the jet in- sales, had planned to ramp down as dustry will have grown commercial finance ramped up. But 175% between 2003 and the recent Obama administration deci- 2014. And that is before sion to increase Ex-Im finance shows Neo and Max kick in and a move in the opposite direction. In U.S. refleeting begins in fact, the March Ex-Im announcement earnest. Will third-party fi- implies a possible role in financing nance ramp up to meet Boeing sales to domestic carriers as a the demand? retaliatory move if Bombardier gets Given the importance Canadian government financing for U.S. carriers must get serious about growing their international exposure, and chasing international premium traffic. of third-party financing, CSeries sales to U.S. airlines.
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The good news is that government service to marginal markets. Contract tremely risky, but at least it is not a re- finance will help make continued pro- renegotiations between the regionals gional aircraft. For Embraer that means duction increases feasible. The bad and the majors have been painful… business jets, KC-390 transports, and a news is that government finance can and it is a one-sided kind of pain. Es- reengined E-170/190 transport family also distort markets, raising the pros- sential Air Service subsidies have that aims to get into mainline turf. pect of government-backed overcapa- dwindled to almost nothing. Regional city, analogous to Fannie Mae’s role in requirements always stayed largely the housing market. North American, so the industry did We can draw several conclusions from not profit much from fast-growth all of this: Outlook for regionals emerging market carriers. •There will be demand for lots of The other equipment conclusion con- From a regional aircraft perspec- next-generation single aisles, all at cerns regional aircraft, on which Teal tive, that is a laundry list of horror. once. That’s an opportunity. is not as bullish. Regional deliveries The new ‘regional’ aircraft that have •There will be greater emphasis on, have declined from about 15% of the dominated the market over the past and challenges for, third-party finance. total transport market value 20 years few years, while selling to a more That’s a risk. ago to about 10% last year. global customer base, are mostly •There will be a great market for The reasons are self-evident. Air- larger 90/100-seat planes flying origin the premium seat and jet interior up- line mergers mean fewer hubs and and destination traffic. Almost nobody grade companies. smaller hub feed requirements. Ex- would consider them true regionals. •There is really not much hope for pensive fuel means smaller aircraft For the OEMs, the number-one regional aircraft. look less efficient. Airlines have de- rule is to escape from the regional Richard Aboulafia emphasized market share and catch- market. For Bombardier, that means Teal Group ment area expansion and eagerly cut developing the CSeries, which is ex- raboulafi[email protected]
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Soyuz and Long March set the pace
THE LAUNCH SERVICES INDUSTRY CON- Russia’s Proton, Europe’s Ariane 5, the have emerged as the most prolific tinued to grow last year, posting 79 at- U.S. Atlas V, the Ukraine’s Zenit, the space launch programs in the world, by tempted orbital launch missions. That U.S. Delta IV and Delta II, Japan’s far. Together they account for 34% of all total surpassed the 75 missions in each H-2, the U.S. Minotaur and space shut- the launches attempted during the past of the previous two years and repre- tle, and India’s PSLV. By contrast, the three years; we project that this domi- sents more launches than at any time 12 most active vehicles accounted for nance will continue—and probably ex- since 2000, when 87 were attempted. 88% of all attempted launches in each pand—for the foreseeable future. But although the number of launches of 2009 and 2010. increased, there was far less diversity The rising trend in launch activity Commercial expansion for Soyuz in terms of the rockets used. In 2009 concentration is apparent for the three While Soyuz has consistently ranked and again in 2010, 21 different launch most active rockets, which accounted among the leading rockets for dec- vehicle models were employed, com- for 40% of all launches in 2009, 52% in ades, most of its business traditionally pared to only 18 in 2011. 2010, and 53% in 2011. But it is partic- has focused on launching civil satel- [Note that for the sake of simplic- ularly noticeable for the two most ac- lites and capsules for the Rosaviakos- ity, we count all the Long March mod- tive vehicles, which accounted for mos, the Russian space agency, or mil- els as one and break out the Zenits 29% of launches in 2009, 36% in 2010, itary satellites for Russia’s ministry of into either land-launched or sea- and 44% in 2011. defense. This started to change dra- launched models.] It is clear that the top two rockets matically in 1999, when the Soyuz be- In other words, last year’s launch are increasingly driving the launch ser- gan to be used for launching Global- activities were slightly more concen- vices market. In 2009, it was Soyuz star mobile communications satellites trated, with 92% of all launches under- and Proton. In 2010 and again last to LEO. That year, seven Soyuz vehi- taken by the 12 most active rockets— year it was Long March and Soyuz. cles successfully launched Globalstar Russia’s Soyuz, China’s Long March, In short, Soyuz and Long March satellites, in batches of five. Over the past decade, Soyuz has been used most often to launch Soyuz manned crew transport capsules to the ISS and Progress unmanned resupply capsules—increasingly so, given the drawdown of the space shuttle pro- gram. During this time, however, Ari- anespace has invested in helping to develop the Soyuz 2.1a and 2.1b and in marketing them commercially. In 2010, Soyuz was again being used to launch Globalstars. On October 19 of that year, a Soyuz 2.1a successfully launched six Globalstars from Tyura- tam, Kazakhstan. On July 16, 2011, a 2.1a launched six Globalstars, this time from Ariane- space’s main launch facilities at Kou- rou, French Guiana. The first Soyuz 2.1b from Kourou followed on Octo- ber 21. That mission carried two Gal- ileo navigation satellites for ESA. On December 17, another 2.1a lifted off from Kourou, carrying small French and Chilean imaging satellites, fol- lowed by a 2.1a with six Globalstars Soyuz (left) and Long March are increasingly driving the launch services market. from Tyuratam.
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and the advantage of three different launch sites (Plesetsk, Tyuratam, and Kourou), Soyuz’s growth potential is considerable. The only launch vehicle program that stands to outpace Soyuz is China Great Wall Industry’s Long March, which consists of just under a dozen rocket models that are either active or under development.
Rapid rise of Long March Although not a major player in the commercial market, Long March has been one of the most successful launch vehicle programs during the past five years. Throughout much of its history, it averaged no more than two to three missions per year. However, Long March launch rates began growing to four to five missions annually over the past decade, as China’s national space program no- ticeably expanded and built many The Soyuz lifts off on its inaugural flight from the spaceport in French Guiana. more spacecraft. These included com- munications and scientific satellites, Between Arianespace’s investment hard to recall the last time any rocket exploratory probes, and capsules, to- in and commercial marketing of Soyuz posted 19 or more launches, but the gether with the first series of demon- and the readiness of the Globalstar feat has certainly not been matched stration Beidou navigation satellites. program to use the vehicle for launch- this century. You might have to go The Chinese government also be- ing most of its satellites, Soyuz has back to the early 1990s or 1980s to the gan making a greater effort to market grown to become the industry’s most days of the Soviet Union. commercially successful medium-sized While more than 80% of Soyuz launch vehicle. It thoroughly domi- launches were for the Russian govern- nates the medium-lift segment of the ment last year, there is a trend toward market, especially now that Boeing’s more commercial customers, such as Delta II is so overpriced (more than Globalstar. About 40% of the satellites $100 million per mission) that it is es- launched by Soyuz rockets last year sentially uncompetitive. were commercial, including the two Soyuz’s growing commercial busi- Galileos. A few Soyuz launchers have ness—along with its already substantial already been contracted by ESA to civil and military activity—accounts for carry Galileo satellites, as well as by the vehicle’s 19 launches in 2011. It is O3b Networks for its constellation of eight broadband communications LAUNCH MISSIONS BY MONTH satellites at medium Earth orbit. January 4 We expect Soyuz to maintain its February 5 near monopoly of the medium-lift March 3 launch market for the foreseeable fu- April 6 ture. The only U.S. rockets that may May 5 eventually provide some competition June 7 are Space Exploration Technologies’ July 8 August 7 medium to heavy Falcon 9 and Orbital September 7 Sciences’ medium Antares (formerly October 9 known as Taurus II). November 9 With a diverse customer base, the The Falcon 9, along with the Antares, may be December 9 marketing prowess of Arianespace, the only U.S. competition for the Soyuz.
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LAUNCH MISSIONS BY VEHICLE Tianlian 1-1 was a civil data relay Soyuz 19 spacecraft and the Tansuo 3 (Shiyan 3) Long March 16 and BX-1 were scientific technology Proton 7 development satellites. Shenzhou 7 Ariane 5 5 was a manned space capsule—the first Atlas V 5 manned mission for the Shenzhou Zenit 4 program and the first to feature a Delta IV 3 spacewalk by a Chinese taikonaut. Delta II 3 The remaining nine satellites H-2 3 Minotaur 3 launched by Long Marches that year were for Earth observation. At least Space shuttle 3 China has begun launching commercial satellites, PSLV 2 four of those—Shijian 6E, Shijian 6F, including the Venesat 1, for foreign customers. Dnepr 1 Yaogan 4, and Yaogan 5—were de- GSLV 1 signed for military imaging missions. launched five military imaging satel- Rockot 1 Three were disaster monitoring satel- lites—three more Yaogans and the Safir 1 lites—Chuangxin 1-2, Huan Jing 1, and Tianhu 1. Sea Launch Zenit 1 Huan Jing 2. And two were meteoro- In addition, these rockets launched Taurus 1 logical—Feng Yun 3A and 2E. three Shijian scientific satellites, the The four Long March launches in Chaang’e-2 Moon probe, the Feng Long March commercially to other 2009 suggested that the previous year’s Yun 3B meteorological satellite, and countries with which it had developed record number of flights might have the Zhongxing 20A military communi- closer political and economic ties—na- been an anomaly, but that thought cations satellite. tions such as Venezuela and Nigeria. was quickly put to rest in 2010 when Had Soyuz not had such an unusu- During 2007-2008, Long March rockets the program successfully carried out a ally stellar year in 2011, Long March lofted Nigcomsat 1 and Simon Bolivar total of 15 missions. In fact, the slow- would have led the world in number 1 (Venesat 1) communications satel- down was due to an extremely un- of launches for the second consecu- lites for Nigerian Communication Sat- usual failure (the first in 13 years) by a tive year, with a total of 16—although ellite and the Venezuelan Ministry of Long March on August 31, 2009. one of those (on August 18) was a fail- Science and Technology, respectively. The problem was attributed to a ure. The program continued to benefit But by 2008, a much more diverse malfunction of the CZ-3B’s third stage, from a full manifest of Chinese civil and ambitious Chinese space program caused by a burnthrough of one of the and military satellites, including three and some initial success at marketing stage’s YF-75 engine gas generators. more Beidous, two Yaogans, a Shen- launch services abroad combined to This resulted in the placement of In- zhou, a Chuangxin, and a Tianlian, produce a record number of missions donesia’s Palapa D1 commercial com- but also three commercial satellites for for Long March. Seemingly overnight, munications satellite in a lower than foreign customers. the rocket posted 11 launches that planned orbit. With the launch of three telecom- year, matching Russia’s heavy-lift Pro- The 15 launches in 2010 set an- munications/broadcasting satellites in ton as the most prolific launch pro- other record for Long March and 2011—Paksat 1R for the Pakistan Tele- gram. Suddenly, Long March had made it the most active of all the communications Authority on August joined Soyuz, Proton, Delta II, and Ar- launch programs in the world. It sur- 11, Eutelsat W3C on October 7, and iane 5 as one of the upper-tier rockets passed both Proton and Soyuz, which Nigcomsat-1R for Nigerian Communi- in terms of activity level. had experienced one of their most cation Satellite on December 19—the In less than a decade, Long March successful launch years in recent Long March program seems finally to went from being a low-launch-rate memory, with 12 missions each. And have made a breakthrough in the in- program posting two to three missions again, nearly all those launches by ternational launch market. a year to a medium-rate one averaging Long March were for the Chinese gov- Combined with its captive and in- four to five, and finally to a high-rate ernment. The only exception to this creasingly diverse and robust domestic one with 11. The growth was fueled was the Chinasat 6A for China Satellite market, its successful penetration of almost entirely by the Chinese space Communications. emerging markets in Africa, Central program. The most common types of Chi- Asia, and South America, and more re- If you look at the 15 spacecraft nese spacecraft launched that year cently the mature and lucrative Euro- launched by Long March rockets in were civil navigation and military im- pean market, the business potential is 2008, all but two—the Simon Bolivar 1 aging satellites. Long Marches orbited perhaps more promising for Long for Venezuela and the Chinasat 9 di- five Beidou satellites for China’s pro- March than for any other launch vehi- rect TV broadcast satellite for China posed Compass navigation system, cle anywhere. Marco Cáceres Satellite Communications—were for which will consist of 35 satellites Teal Group the Chinese government. within the next decade. They also [email protected]
28 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2012 Suitable for all reading levels, the Library of Flight series encompasses a wide variety of general-interest and reference books, including case studies. Appropriate subjects include the history and economics of aerospace as well as design, development, and management of aircraft and space programs. RECENT RELEASES Eleven Seconds into the Unknown: A History of the Hyper-X Program Curtis Peebles 342 pages This is the highly-anticipated sequel to Peebles’ fi rst book on the X-43A/Hyper-X project, Road to Mach 10: Lessons Learned from the X-43A Flight Research Program. A central theme of the Hyper-X story is how disparate groups and organizations became a unifi ed team working toward a common goal.
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The next major step in human space exploration, going beyond LEO, will not be possible without multi- national cooperation, say experts. The international beyond LEO were sidetracked when Presi- dent Barack Obama reset America’s space space station program, agenda in April 2010, curtailing the Constel- lation program, which was to be an ener- despite its twists and turns, getic plan of putting people back on the Moon, sending crews to Mars and beyond. proved what countries can Preparations for a human return to the Moon were halted outright. Top priority accomplish together and went instead to developing capabilities that would allow astronauts to visit near-Earth could serve as a model for asteroids, orbit Mars, and ultimately make landfall on the Martian surface. a joint exploration effort. It has become increasingly apparent both to the U.S. and many other spacefar- Over a dozen space agencies ing nations that realizing any vision of sus- tainable space exploration beyond LEO will from around the world require greater global cooperation. The success of the ISS project—hailed have begun discussions on as one of the most advanced engineering achievements to date—underscores what is coordinating long-range possible when spacefaring nations collabo- rate to pursue a shared strategy. plans for such missions, Looming large, however, is the cash- strapped condition of nations. The process which are likely to proceed of piecing together a long-term global space partnership is fraught with other in the future—with or challenges as well, from uncertainties re- garding technical competence, to questions without U.S. leadership. of interdependence and leadership acu- men, to lack of political willpower.
Nonbinding international coordination This month the Global Space Exploration Conference, organized by the International
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Astronautical Federation and the AIAA, is ISECG has its roots in 14 space agen- serving as an international forum for discus- cies whose members sat down together in sions by major stakeholders in this arena— 2006 to take a hard look at global interests senior administrators and space exploration in space exploration. The group seeks to managers from the major space agencies, enable a flow of information between industry, governments, academia, and non- agencies regarding interests, objectives, and governmental organizations. plans in space exploration. The goal is to Sure to be a major topic at the confer- fortify both individual exploration programs ence is a recent publication by the Interna- and the collective effort. tional Space Exploration Coordination Last year ISECG released the Global Group (ISECG), a voluntary, nonbinding in- Exploration Roadmap, or GLEX for short. A ternational coordination forum. long-range exploration strategy, it begins
There is increasing interest in establishing an L-point destination beyond LEO— a location that could involve international participation. A variety of activities could be initiated from that location. Credit: NASA/John Frassanito & Associates.
by Leonard David Contributing writer
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with the ISS and expands human presence to enable innovation, she says, as well as to ISECG participants in the solar system, leading ultimately to promote commercial cargo and crew oper- ASI—Italy human missions to explore the surface of ations. “So to the extent that ISS can drive CNES—France Mars. The roadmap flows from this strategy those innovations, and make it cheaper for CNSA—China and identifies two potential pathways, As- us to get to space, it helps governments re- CSA—Canada teroid Next and Moon Next. ally look beyond low Earth orbit.” CSIRO—Australia Each pathway is a notional mission Deliberations in the ISECG arrive at a DLR—Germany scenario covering a 25-year period and pre- bottom line, says Laurini. “Going beyond ESA—Europe sents a ‘logical sequence’ of robotic and hu- LEO is the next step; it’s a question of ISRO—India man missions. Both were deemed realistic when. Right now we’re doing cooperative JAXA—Japan approaches that could address common work so that when budgets free up there KARI—Republic of Korea high-level exploration goals developed by are plans that are technically feasible, pro- NASA—United States the participating agencies, recognizing that grammatically implementable…but have the groups’ preferences regarding the path- been developed collaboratively.” NSAU—Ukraine ways may vary. Laurini says NASA cannot control the Roscosmos—Russia The document notes that “there is critical path of partner nations for moving UKSA—United Kingdom much work to be done before the risks as- beyond LEO. “It’s just too expensive. It is sociated with such missions can be reduced going to take all of us and several agencies to an acceptable level and the required on the critical path. So just finding the right technologies are matured to enable a sus- roles for those agencies, that are consistent tainable approach.” with their capabilities and their long-term The next iteration of the roadmap is goals…is a challenge.” But in the field of expected later this year, with agencies hop- human spaceflight, “NASA is the glue. ing to elaborate on strategies laid out in the Agencies look to us for that role, frankly.” earlier document. There is also an eager- The September 2011 first iteration of ness to recognize additional opportunities ISECG’s document presents a roadmap to for near-term partnerships that contribute to Mars “mainly because there’s a big question shaping sojourns beyond LEO. about the next destination,” Laurini ex- plains. “The fact is we don’t really need to ISS: A key factor decide right now. The idea is to be iterative “We think about a coalition or partnership over time, to serve as a tool to help align for exploration beyond low Earth orbit,” policies and plans. The ISECG is charting a says Kathy Laurini, senior advisor, explo- way forward, one that is a collaborative vi- ration and space operations, at NASA. She sion and respects the fact you only get is the agency’s representative to ISECG, money if there’s a benefit to your stake- based in The Netherlands. holders. Doing that and finding the com- “There’s no question it’ll start with the mon ground…that is always a challenge.” strong partnership that’s formed by the ISS The implications of humankind moving agencies. But there are a lot of other agen- beyond LEO are global, says Laurini. “If cies out there that are emerging and have a you’re going to do it, you should do it in- lot of capabilities. It would be nice to bring ternationally. There’s no better time than them in,” Laurini tells Aerospace America. now to start the planning.” The ISS is a key ingredient, a platform to showcase research and technology and Open-ended process Bernhard Hufenbach heads the Exploration High-level representatives from Architecture Office in the Directorate of 41 countries, including the 29 Human Spaceflight at the European Space ESA and EU states, took part in a recent international conference Research and Technology Center (ESTEC)— on space exploration in Lucca, the technical heart of ESA in Noordwijk, Italy. Credit: Andrea Rossi, ESA. Netherlands. “Global cooperation for future space exploration is not only a necessity, due to the resources required for imple- menting sustained exploration, but also a common goal as stated in the Global Explo- ration Strategy, considering derived broader socioeconomic benefits,” he says. International partners in any future ex- ploration must learn how to manage inter- dependency, notes Hufenbach. An impor-
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tant enabler for this in an international pro- gram, he says, is a clearly defined gover- nance scheme and overall cooperation framework. The model applied for the ISS program can serve “as a good reference,” Hufenbach believes, one that has helped to forge a strong partnership and to mitigate the con- sequences of various crises that arose dur- ing the project. But there are differences between the two programs, Hufenbach stresses. “Exploration is an open-ended process, composed of multiple missions to different destinations with potentially varying part- ners, driven by a very long-term vision,” he says. Today, the boundaries of a particular ‘international program’ in this process are The ISS is an examplar of lessons not defined. The governance scheme and U.S. exploration plans are sucked down learned for orchestrating any global program of human travel cooperation framework for exploration into political battles, Europe and Japan are beyond LEO. Credit: NASA. must address long-term strategic planning, nearly nowhere, Russian plans are hazy, as well as the implementation of incremen- China’s ambitions are clear and imple- tal steps through dedicated programs. “It mented, and new actors such as India are needs to be flexible and easily adaptable to raising their profile.” cope with change of partners and mission Given that appraisal and the uncertain- scenarios,” he concludes. ties of the current environment, his next “There is a question mark over whether question is straightforward: Who will be the the ISS model is the right one to adopt,” leaders of human space exploration 10-15 says Ian Pryke, a senior fellow at George years from now? Mason University’s Center for Aerospace Grimard believes four key factors are Policy Research. “Whether you take an ISS driving the dynamics of human space ex- model or whether you’ve got to evolve ploration: the general budget situation, hu- some different model remains to be seen.” man space exploration within a country’s One hurdle overcome in the ISS pro- political agenda, budget competition for re- gram, Pryke recalls, was worrying about sources, and political stability during long- having station partners on the critical path. term exploration ventures. Fast forward to today: As long as the station There is a strong consensus that the is there, he contends, “you’ve got a number next big step for human space exploration, of space agencies that are locked into such as NEOs or Mars, will necessitate huge working together. And they are doing it on infrastructures that are not affordable by a daily basis. That creates a positive back- any one country, Grimard says. Even plant- ground for whatever you do in the future.” ing new footprints on the Moon will need Pryke notes that the ISECG has been international cooperation. careful to put the emphasis on coordination “Three of the ‘historical’ spacefaring rather than cooperation. “Today, it’s very countries—the U.S., Europe, Japan—have hard to talk about modes of cooperation lost political momentum for human space when you don’t know exactly what you exploration. They are facing very strong would be cooperating on,” he says. economic constraints and have more urgent priorities,” he says. Although the U.S. still Leadership vacuum? has the largest civil space budget, the pres- A question raised by Max Grimard of EADS sure of the debt crisis will deepen this loss Astrium in France is: Will the U.S. remain of momentum, he believes. “Human space the real leader of human space exploration? exploration is continuing more on ‘DNA ob- His assessment is that human space explo- ligation’ than on clear strategic objectives.” ration is at a turning point, and should find Grimard forecasts that the U.S. will its direction during the coming decade. have difficulty generating an international Grimard presented his personal view at initiative that embraces trusting partners. the 2011 International Astronautical Con- That is a paradox, he observes, in that the gress in Cape Town, South Africa: “Today, nation remains the most powerful and
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way for a future Mars sample return mis- sion in the 2020s. But NASA’s 2013 budget spelled out the disappointing news: The agency pulled out of a 2016 ExoMars mis- sion and signaled a no-go on a follow-on 2018 mission. Meanwhile, ESA officials have begun looking at Russian support. “The recent situation with Mars explo- ration demonstrates that even having an in- ternational cooperation agreement is no guarantee of success,” says Marcia Smith, president of Space and Technology Policy Group. Smith is also founder and editor of the informative SpacePolicyOnline.com. “Perhaps the most regrettable aspect of the revised Mars plans is that we are reneg- ing on that 2009 agreement with ESA. After all, we are awash in Mars probes—already there, on their way, and to be launched—so I personally am not that concerned about possibly missing a Mars opportunity. But we did sign an agreement with ESA and The ExoMars descent lander now have to back off because of budget re- (above) would deliver the highest spending country for human space alities,” says Smith. rover (below) to a specific exploration, “but it can hardly appear as a With so many unpredictable factors, location using an inflatable braking device or parachute leader, due to its evasiveness.” Smith says she does not know of a solution. system. Using conventional Considering the situation, Grimard ad- “I credit our international partners around solar arrays to generate vises that the booster of new initiatives in the globe for being so flexible in working electricity, the rover will be human space exploration could more likely with us despite the twists and turns” in the able to travel a few kilometers over the rocky orange-red be China rather than the U.S. in the coming station program, for example, and in use of surface of Mars. decade—but not as a catalyst of an interna- the shuttle for ISS operations as promised. tional effort. There is a high probability, he “So, yes, international cooperation is says, that China will pursue national ambi- critical, and I hope that our partners con- tions ‘à la Apollo’ while the block of space tinue to show the grace and goodwill that station partners carry on human spaceflight they have in the past as our plans con- in the framework of ISS and spend money stantly shift,” says Smith. trying to start a long-term initiative, without entering full-scale development. Lack of coherence If so, Grimard argues, this might lead to “The upcoming GLEX conference is an im- a global loss of momentum for meeting the portant part of creating a broader interna- ultimate objective: expanding the frontier of tional consensus on human explorations human space exploration toward the NEOs beyond low Earth orbit,” says Scott Pace, or Mars. That is, nobody is steering interna- director of the Space Policy Institute at tional partners in the structure of a world- George Washington University’s Elliott wide endeavor. “The milestone for humans, School of International Affairs in Washing- to go outside the Earth-Moon system, might ton, D.C. “The United States will not be en- shift very far in the future,” he concludes. gaging in exploration without international partners, so realistic plans need to be de- Grace and goodwill veloped in consultation with prospective Dispatching an expedition to Mars has long partners.” been a drawing card, as the ISECG docu- Pace’s survey article on this subject was ment demonstrates. Still, getting a lasting published in the Harvard International Re- pledge between NASA and ESA to pull to- view. Organizing a broad international ap- gether the robotic ExoMars mission turned proach to space exploration and space se- sour earlier this year. curity will not be easy, says the article, not ESA, in cooperation with NASA, had least because of the errors and confusion in pieced together the ExoMars program to in- recent U.S. space policy statements, strate- vestigate the Martian environment and gies, and programs. demonstrate new technologies paving the Pace notes also that the U.S. has dimin-
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ished its global influence by omitting the sire for a program of human exploration “is Moon as a focus for near-term human not shared by everybody in the world.” space exploration efforts, and by failing to Convincing governments to invest public cooperate with Europe on the next stage of resources in a long-term, expensive propo- robotic missions to Mars. sition “is far from a slam dunk,” he says. Moreover, there is a lack of general co- First, when you start listing the condi- herence regarding civil space exploration in tions for cooperation, one is that the project the Obama administration’s 2010 National must make a meaningful contribution (a Space Policy. It directed the NASA adminis- provision that a number of countries can trator to set “far-reaching exploration mile- now meet). Another is financial necessity; stones”—specifically, by 2025, to begin mis- but “the tricky one is political will,” he says. sions beyond the Moon, including flying “The heads of space agencies can talk humans to an asteroid. themselves blue in the face about how to As later technical work has shown, says do this…but until they can convince, both Pace, there are few scientifically attractive, collectively and individually, their political technically feasible asteroids that can be reached on this schedule. Even worse, the international space community, which had been focusing its expectations on the Moon as the next U.S. target of exploration, “felt blindsided,” he notes. Asian countries like Japan, India, China, and South Korea had seen the Moon as a challenging but feasible destination for robotic systems, and a practical focus for human space exploration, Pace continues. The choice of an asteroid mission was, per- haps mistakenly, taken as an indication that the U.S. was not interested in broad inter- national cooperation but would focus in- stead on partnerships with the most capa- ble players—Russia, and perhaps European countries. As a result, spacefaring nations are increasingly making their own plans, separately from the U.S., he writes. Pace explains that Asian space agen- cies have shown an interest in lunar mis- sions as the logical next step beyond LEO. These missions are viewed as “ambitious but achievable” and hence more practical than trips to Mars or more distant locales. He believes that a program of multilateral The Moon is seen as one of the exploration of the Moon would also be a and budget masters to commit to this kind likeliest targets of the Aurora program, a European long-term symbolic and practical means of building a of enterprise, it’s not going to amount to plan for the robotic and human framework for peaceful space cooperation, anything,” says Logsdon. “Cooperation is a exploration of the solar system. in concert with dual-use discussions of political and budgetary act,” he empha- Credits: ESA - AOES Medialab. space transparency and confidence-build- sizes, “and space agencies by themselves ing measures, known in diplomatic short- cannot make this happen.” hand as TCBMs. Logsdon is among those who view ISS as a success story. The project shows that Conditions for cooperation difficulties can be overcome and partner- John Logsdon, professor emeritus of politi- ships can work, he says. Nonetheless, the cal science and international affairs at the station program “hasn’t all been sweetness Space Policy Institute, agrees that a space and light. But the benefits of working to- exploration program can take place only gether are so substantial,” he says, “that through multilateral cooperation. “No coun- they allow a partnership to persist over try is going to do this on its own, as the troubled times. No marriage is without its U.S. did during Apollo,” he says, rough spots…nor is any large-scale cooper- Logsdon adds, however, that the de- ative project.”
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The joint U.S./USSR Apollo ture cooperation they want interdepend- Soyuz Test Project was a key ence, not one-way dependence.” first step in international human And what about China? “It takes two to spaceflight. This 1975 mission brought together in Earth orbit tango…and I know that’s a cliché,” Logs- U.S. astronauts Thomas Stafford, don responds. “A partnership takes willing Vance Brand, and Donald K. partners. It’s not clear that China, at its cur- Slayton and Soviet cosmonauts Aleksey Leonov and Valeriy rent stage of space development, gives high Kubasov. Slayton and Leonov priority to collaboration in human space- pose together in the Soyuz flight.” He suggests that Chinese coopera- orbital module during the tion is almost a separate issue, in view of docking mission. the burgeoning cooperation among current ISS partners and emerging space-capable states. “Also, people don’t talk a lot about this, but what are Russia’s desires for the next several decades? I think that’s an im- portant element of this too.” In the broader scheme of things, says The ISS is there. It works. And it works Logsdon, orchestrating a sign-on-the-dot- in a way that creates interdependence, ted-line global space adventure is a fragile most of all between the U.S., Russia, and exercise. “I’m not sure you can sneak up on Canada, Logsdon observes. “Japan and Eu- this and wake up one day saying, ‘oh my rope are very much aware that they are heavens, we’re committed to sending peo- less-than-equal partners,” he notes. “That’s ple to Mars.’ There have to be specific point because if their modules went away tomor- decisions to undertake voyages of explo- row, the station could still function. That ration. The fundamental question is, are puts them in a weaker bargaining posi- there enough governments interested in tion…and [is] why those countries say in fu- doing this to create a critical mass?”
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programs, including America’s Apollo and the Anglo-French Concorde, the world’s first supersonic passenger aircraft. In 1968, Stanley Kubrick’s seminal movie, 2001: A Space Odyssey, showed a dart-like spaceplane approaching a huge, wheel-like space sta- tion. Given the optimism of the times, and the proven track record of success in this arena, it was perhaps inevitable that ideas for combining spacecraft and airliner technology to enable travel ‘from London to Tokyo in 90 minutes’ appeared regularly in the popular press. In a decade obsessed with speed, hyper- sonics seemed set to replace supersonics. As we settle into the second decade of the 21st century, re- search into hypersonics is alive and well in some parts of the globe. But are we really any closer to that 90-minute flight?
Learning to fly faster As every plane-spotting child of the 1960s knew, very high speeds are measured in terms of Mach number—named after Austrian physicist Ernst Mach—with Mach 1 corresponding to the speed of sound and Mach 5 or more said to be hypersonic. The first serious attempt to design what we would call today a hypersonic aerospace vehicle was undertaken by Eugen Sänger and Irene Bredt in the 1940s. Their ‘orbital bomber’ was effectively a rocket-powered vehicle launched from a rocket sled. Later in the decade a similar vehicle, though incorporating ramjet engines, was proposed by Mstislav V. Keldysh in the So- viet Union. The ramjet and its sister technology, the scramjet, re- X43C concept. Credit: NASA. main among the best hopes for hypersonic propulsion.
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The goal of hypersonic passenger transport has been a source of excitement to aerospace engineers for more than five decades, not least because of the significant technical challenges it presents. Unfortunately, it appears to have something in common with another advanced
technology—that of nuclear fusion—in always seeming to be 30 years in the future.
America’s rocket-propelled aircraft program, which has been well documented, also began in the 1940s. It produced the first aircraft to break the ‘sound barrier’—the supersonic XS-1 flown by Chuck Yeager in October 1947. NASA’s most famous hypersonics demonstrator remains the X-15, which was designed to reach speeds up to Mach 6 in hor- izontal flight. In fact, one of the three flight models—which to- gether performed 199 flights between September 1959 and Oc- tober 1968—set a record of Mach 6.7 in October 1967, and an altitude record of some 108 km (exceeding the notional 100-km ceiling for spaceflight). Plans were made to fly the X-15 into orbit, but this became the goal of the Mercury program instead, and the X-15 quickly X-51 Waverider receded from the limelight. Nevertheless, it did lead to further re- search into winged lifting bodies, and eventually to the space shuttle. One could say it also begat NASA’s ill-fated X-30/Na- tional Aero-Space Plane, the X-33/VentureStar (a joint NASA/ Lockheed Martin development), and the more recent and more successful X-43A variant of the Hyper-X program. As Curtis Peebles explains in Eleven Seconds into the Un- known: A History of the Hyper-X Program, the idea of building “a small, simple scramjet-powered vehicle” did not arise until af- ter the failure of the overambitious X-30 program. That ‘idea’ be- came the Hyper-X project. Unfortunately, the first flight-test at- tempt, in June 2001, ended even before the vehicle reached supersonic speed, because of a control system malfunction. However, a second flight showed that the scramjet worked, and by Mark Williamson a third extended the flight envelope to an engine burn-time of Contributing writer
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almost 11 sec and a velocity of Mach 9.8. In Interesting though these developments 2010, the follow-on X-51 Waverider ex- are from a technical standpoint, the demon- tended the operating time to some 200 sec, stration vehicles are only a few meters long but only to about Mach 5. (A waverider is a and therefore have nothing like the size hypersonic vehicle that enhances its lift-to- and capability of an operational passenger drag ratio by riding the shock waves it gen- vehicle. The notable exception, though the erates in flight.) vehicle is based on existing technologies, is More recently, in November 2011, the the USAF’s X-37B, an unmanned minishut- Army successfully tested its advanced hy- tle that may have carried a military imaging X-37B personic weapon, or AHW. Effectively a payload to LEO in March 2011. cruise missile using waverider techniques, it It should come as no surprise that hy- was carried by a suborbital rocket and personic passenger travel has taken a back made an unpowered Mach-10 glide to hit a seat to military applications, especially con- target 4,000 km from the launch point. sidering the technical and safety issues. In- Given its investments in space and mil- deed, much of the hypersonics research is itary hardware, it would be surprising if focused on defense applications, because China were not making similar develop- that is where the near-term applications lie. ments. It is difficult, however, from material In fact, the first practical hypersonics prob- available in the West, to detect a significant lem in need of a solution was the high- push: Recent papers from China appear to speed reentry vehicle, designed to protect concentrate on academic research into ba- warheads delivered by ballistic missiles. sic structures, materials, and methods of fuel injection and ignition. Defying gravity Other nations have shown varying lev- Beyond the hypersonic air-breathers that els of interest in hypersonics research. For remain in the atmosphere, the long-term example, France was particularly active in vision of high-speed passenger flight in- the late 1980s, most notably with its volves developing an aerospace vehicle PREPHA R&D program, but that folded in that can make the transition from atmo- 1999. And recently there has been a resur- spheric flight to spaceflight and back, and gence of interest. According to François also lift off and land at an airport or space- Falempin of MBDA Missile Systems, France port facility. However, the technical chal- is currently working on the development lenges involved in engineering that vision and demonstration of combustion chamber are significant. technologies, fuel-cooled structures, and Arguably, the greatest challenge is the other materials technologies, and plans an development of an air-breathing engine air-breathing flight demonstrator similar to that can also be used at higher altitudes in the X-43, called LEA, though its funding some designs incorporating a rocket en- and schedule are unclear. gine. The requirement for this dual opera- And the Australian Defence Science tion is based on limitations in the vehicle’s and Technology Organisation is working mass budget and the fundamental need to with the USAF Research Laboratory on the overcome gravity. The payload mass of HIFiRE (hypersonic international flight re- conventional rockets is severely limited by search experimentation) program. The sec- their need to carry both fuel and oxidizer in ond of up to 10 planned hypersonic flight tanks that themselves add to the mass that tests from central Australia’s Woomera Test must be lifted. Indeed, conventional rockets Range was completed in 2010. are only viable in the first place because they use stages that jettison when their pro- pellant is depleted, thus reducing the mass carried to a higher altitude. This is wasteful, of course, as most of the hardware is dis- carded after a single use. The ‘aerospace vehicle’ removes much of the need for oxidizer and associated tankage, because its engine extracts oxygen from the atmosphere and uses that to burn its fuel. If the vehicle is also required to op- erate in ‘rocket mode,’ onboard oxidizer will be used for the exoatmospheric por- LAPCAT compared with Airbus A380 tion of its flightpath.
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The thermal challenge Because friction between high-speed ob- Propulsion options According to an analysis by aerospace engi- of a rocket, the flow leaves the engine jects and atmospheric molecules generates neer David Van Wie of the Johns Hopkins through a convergent/divergent nozzle large amounts of heat that must be dis- Applied Physics Lab, although hypersonic (again at supersonic speeds), thus pro- persed if the vehicle is to survive, the de- propulsion systems can utilize liquid- and ducing thrust. velopment of a thermal protection system solid-fueled rockets and turbojets, air- As speeds increase, the losses associated (TPS) is another significant challenge. So, breathing systems offer the most promising with slowing the airstream become greater, although much of the focus has been on solution for a new class of vehicles “capable so in a supersonic combustion ramjet, or scramjet, although the air entering the the propulsion elements, the arguably less of achieving hypersonic cruise within the atmosphere.” These include ramjets, scram- engine is slowed it remains supersonic. glamorous matter of materials development jets, and dual-combustion ramjets. The problem is that, while ramjets are in- is also high on the agenda, because aerody- As its name suggests, a ramjet is a type efficient at speeds above about Mach 5 namic heating becomes the dominant tech- of jet engine in which propellant is com- (because they slow the air to subsonic nical issue at hypersonic speeds. busted using air compressed by the forward velocities), scramjets are inefficient below Remember, even the Concorde, which motion of the aircraft—the air is effectively that speed (as the airstream is too slow for flew at ‘only’ Mach 2, grew several centime- ‘rammed into’ the intake duct. This com- efficient combustion). pression is necessary to decrease the velocity The solution is a combined-cycle engine ters longer during supersonic flight because of the supersonic airflow to prepare it for such as the dual-combustion ramjet, which of thermal expansion. The Lockheed SR-71 combustion. The compressed subsonic air- incorporates a subsonic combustion ramjet Blackbird was designed to exceed Mach 3, flow is mixed with fuel in the combustor and as a ‘pilot’ to a scramjet engine and offers but could do so only by ditching aluminum ignited to raise the temperature and pres- performance and operability over a wide for the more heat-resistant titanium—and sure. Then, in common with the operation range of flight conditions. even then experienced surface heating up to 260 C. Imagine the effects at Mach 5 and above, even assuming the same materials could be used. Because of the heat generated by hy- personic vehicles, NASA Langley’s David E. Glass considers them “a thermal-structural nightmare.” He explains, “In addition to the tremendous aerodynamic heating on the outside…you have a large heat source in- side the vehicle.” This internal heat source is a feature of the X-43 and X-51 designs with their body-integrated engines, he adds, but is addressed in other concepts by “placing the engines away from the fuse- lage, on the wings.” Ultimately, Glass says, the thermal prob- lem will be solved by materials technology, A comparison of efficiency of turbojets, ramjets, and scramjets (in terms of propellant specifically ceramic matrix composites: “In specific impulse) can be made across the speed range (blue depicts hydrocarbon fuels, red depicts hydrogen).Courtesy Johns Hopkins APL. my opinion, CMCs are one, if not the, en- abling class of materials for hypersonic ve- hicles due to their high temperature capa- Of course, the choice of a TPS that does bility and high specific strength (low density not require substantial rework after every and high strength).” CMCs comprise a ce- flight, as did the space shuttle’s, relates di- ramic matrix reinforced by threads or fibers rectly to the fundamental requirement for a of a carbon or ceramic material (such as sil- true aerospace vehicle—that of reusability. icon carbide), which, Glass explains, offers It must be reusable to be operationally cost “high-temperature resistance without the in- effective. In commercial jargon, reus-ability herent low fracture toughness of ceramics.” closes the business case. As Glass points out, “Different thermal management techniques are applied to dif- Routine transportation? ferent flight vehicles,” because the heat flux Anyone who has attended aerospace engi- (instantaneous heating) and heat load (heat neering conferences and flux integrated over time) depend on a spe- exhibits in the last 20 X-30 NASP cific vehicle’s trajectory. Put simply, a short years will have seen the burst of very high heating might be easier plastic models of sleek- to withstand than a long period of relatively looking spaceplanes pur- low thermal input, thus requiring a different porting to represent the design and different materials. latest line of aerospace
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research. They may be more eye-catching for such a vehicle. According to Martin Sip- than inlet valves and composite panels, but pel, head of DLR’s Space Launcher Systems in the final analysis they are only models. Analysis Division, its research concentrates Nevertheless, behind the scenes, aero- on advanced thermal protection and “im- space companies are pursuing research proving the safety and reliability of all ma- projects that they hope will one day result jor subsystems.” in an operational hypersonic vehicle. Japan Taking a different tack is Reaction En- and Europe are particularly active in the gines Ltd. (REL), the U.K. firm that has pro- field, and both have experience with hu- posed a precooled engine concept known man-rated minishuttles—Japan’s H-II orbit- as Scimitar and a compatible 300-seat vehi- ing plane and the French-backed Hermes— cle configuration that, the company says, which, unfortunately, went nowhere. “attains the necessary subsonic and super- Research by the Japan Aerospace Ex- sonic lift/drag ratio for efficient commercial ploration Agency, or JAXA, currently cen- operation.” In common with the other con- ters on a small precooled cepts, the resulting vehicle would be capa- Skylon turbojet engine (S-engine), ble of sustained flight at Mach 5 and thus, which it intends to develop like the others, would also be limited to in parallel with a hyper- suborbital trajectories. sonic turbojet experimen- In fact, REL’s philosophy is based on its tal, or HYTEX, vehicle. It work to develop Skylon, a fully reusable would operate at Mach 5, spaceplane capable of delivering a 10- which one could say is tonne payload to the ISS in LEO. Moreover, ‘borderline hypersonic.’ according to REL’s technical director, Rich- As part of this push, ard Varvill, it could be “readied for another JAXA intends to pursue a mission within a matter of hours”—surely ‘proof of concept’ for a Mach-5-class hyper- the holy grail of launch vehicle developers. sonic passenger transport as part of its Skylon’s hydrogen-fueled combined- long-term vision, JAXA 2025. A small ver- cycle engine will use atmospheric oxygen sion of the S-engine was built in 2008 and up to 30 km and Mach 5, and then use on- has been undergoing ground-based testing board liquid oxygen. In REL’s words, the since then. The plan is to install the engine SABRE (synergetic air-breathing and rocket on an experimental vehicle and flight test it engine) combines “the best features of jet to Mach 5, perhaps in 2015. and rocket engines in a single power Europe is currently pinning its hopes plant,” its effectiveness being based on ex- on the EU-sponsored LAPCAT (long-term tremely efficient heat exchangers. advanced propulsion concepts and tech- Fast-moving air is compressed as it en- nologies) project, which involves the defi- ters an engine and thus increases in tem- nition of a ‘generic reference vehicle’ for perature. This produces one of the funda- hypersonic flight. The EU’s 6th Framework mental design challenges of high-velocity Program of 2005 included the objective of flight: heat rejection. According to Mark evaluating two advanced air-breathing con- Hempsell, REL’s future programs director, cepts “capable of achieving the ultimate the SABRE’s innovative precooler “transfers goal to reduce long-distance flights, e.g. about 400 MW of heat energy from the air from Brussels to Sydney, to less than 2 to 4 to a helium loop which uses it to power the hours.” The 7th Framework Program pro- propellant pumps and compressors.” The SABRE engine gressed this by funding two multinational vehicle’s liquid hydrogen fuel then reduces collaborative research projects: LAPCAT2 the air temperature to cryogenic levels (in and FAST20XX (future high-altitude high- this case around -140 C), which allows the speed transport 20XX). Note the temporally same engine components to be used for vague nature of 20XX. both air-breathing and rocket cycles, and As a result, Germany’s national aero- saves mass. Interestingly, the design also al- space research center and space agency, lows the same engine to be used at takeoff DLR, has been working on concepts such and during initial low-velocity flight, unlike as the 50-seat SpaceLiner, which utilizes the ramjets and scramjets. familiar vertical ascent trajectory and rocket Although SABRE development, in part propulsion of the space shuttle. Thus it ap- funded by ESA and the U.K. Space Agency, pears to have avoided new and unproven has intentionally been low profile, it ap- technologies, considering the state of ram- pears to be well ahead of the competition— jet/scramjet technology to be too immature if that is the right word in the currently non-
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commercial environment—because of its concentration on hardware development. Reduced-scale heat exchanger sections have already undergone cryogenic wind tunnel testing, and a frost control system designed to prevent moisture in the air from freezing as it enters the engine has been developed and demonstrated. Not HyperX surprisingly, Varvill considers REL to have “the only credible near-term solution to sus- search into hypersonic flight has produced tained cruise at Mach 5.” It is fair to note only one operational flight vehicle, the U.S. that some do not share that opinion. space shuttle.” And even considering the It is also fair to note that, despite its progress in designing, building, and flying considerable contributions to supersonic hypersonic reentry vehicles, the fatal flight flight and spaceflight, the U.S. seems con- of Columbia in February 2003 underscores tent to stand back when it comes to com- the severity of the environment they face. mercial hypersonic transportation. In fact, Technology development, testing, and NASA’s latest budget request zeroes hyper- flight demonstrations are exciting, and un- sonics funding. arguably encourage young people to enter the field, but the bottom line is always the Not so fast one on the balance sheet. If we are ever to Most researchers in the field would agree see a spaceplane like the one in 2001: A that the hypersonic environment is harsh Space Odyssey, it will be but one part of an and unforgiving, with the result that sys- expensive commercial undertaking. tems are complex, difficult to design, and The question is, after over half a century expensive to build. So progress is slow. As of development, are we any closer to that E.H. Hirschel of the University of Stuttgart childhood dream of the hypersonic passen- puts it, some “70 years of theorizing and re- ger aircraft, or is it still 30 years away?
Indian Institute of Space Science and Technology Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India – 695 547
Faculty Positions in Aerospace Engineering
Indian Institute of Space Science and Technology (IIST), India’s first Space Institute, established by the Department of Space, Government of India, offers undergraduate (Aerospace Engineering, Avionics, and Physical Sciences), post graduate and doctoral programmes in niche areas of space science and technology. IIST is located at Valiamala, 18 kms from Thiruvananthapuram city, on the way to the famous hill resort of Ponmudi. IIST fosters state-of-the-art research and development in space studies, and aims at creating a think-tank centre to explore new directions in Indian Space Pro- gramme. The campus nourishes a co-operative learning environment enriched by the challenges of Space Science and Technology.
Department of Aerospace Engineering emphasises both innovation and rigour in analysis, which are important for the high reliability and optimality needed in aerospace systems. We have faculty in the areas of Aerodynamics and Flight Me- chanics, Thermal and Propulsion, Structures and Design, and Materials and Manufacturing. We are into the fifth year of the BTech programme, have a good number of doctoral candidates, and are starting an MTech programme in Propulsion. We have set up several laboratories, have a major research programme in Propulsion and Laser Diagnostics, and are setting up High Speed Flow facilities. The Department plans to recruit faculty who are passionate about doing high quality research and development, and want to inspire and mentor future aerospace engineers and scientsists. Broad areas of interest of the Department are listed below (see www.iist.ac.in for more details): • Atmospheric and Space Flight Mechanics / Aerospace Vehicle Design • Aerodynamics: theoretical / computational / experimental • Combustion and Propulsion • Fluid Mechanics / Heat Transfer • Cryogenic Engineering • Structural Mechanics / Dynamics / Experimental Solid Mechanics and Testing • Manufacturing Processes : Precision Engineering / CAD¬CAM / Mechatronics
Indian citizens with PhD from reputed universities, with excellent publications, and who are keen to contribute to the na- tional space programme, are encouraged to apply. The recruitment is at all levels from Assistant to full Professor, depend- ing on the experience and caliber of the candidates. See www.iist.ac.in for details of sub-areas, eligibilty, emoluments, how to apply, etc.
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25 Years Ago, May 1987 has a gross weight of 38,000 lb and a cruise speed of 110 mph. Aviation May 15 The Soviet Union launches its new giant Energia Week, April 16, 1962, p. 32. booster rocket, said to be more powerful than the U.S. space shuttle, from the Baikonur test site in central Asia. However, May 10 An air-to-air radar-guided the mock satellite carried by the rocket fails to orbit. Energia Sparrow III missile, fired from a Navy can place 100 tons into orbit, vs. 75 tons for the shuttle. McDonnell F4H-1 Phantom aircraft, NASA, Astronautics and Aeronautics, 1986-90, p. 114. scores a direct hit against a Regulus II missile at the Naval Air Missile Center 50 Years Ago, May 1962 at Point Mugu, Calif. The hit is the first May 1 The first Boeing C-135B becomes operational successful head-on attack by an with the USAF Military Air Transport Service. The air-launched weapon on a surface- aircraft, which closely resembles the KC-135 tanker launched guided missile. United States but without refueling boom and cabin windows, has Naval Aviation 1910-1980, p. 245. about 40% more thrust than the C-135A. Aviation Week, April 9, 1962, p. 98. May 24 Project Mercury’s Aurora 7 May 1 The liquid-fueled Black Knight, the U.K.’s first indigenous rocketry project, spacecraft, with is fired from the Woomera test range in Australia to a height of 480 mi. The test astronaut Scott objective is to obtain reentry data. Flight International, May 10, 1962, p. 750. Carpenter on board, is launched May 2 Britain’s J.C. Wimpenny wins a 50 prize offered by an anonymous donor successfully by an of the Royal Aeronautical Society for being the first person to fly a man-powered Atlas booster from aircraft half a mile. Wimpenny averages 19.5 mph and flies for 993 yards at an Cape Canaveral, average height of 8 ft. Flight International, May 10, 1962, p. 720. Fla. Carpenter makes a three-orbit flight and reenters the atmosphere. May 3 For the first time, Soviet cosmonaut Gherman Titov However, a yaw error and late retrofire discloses the total thrust of the launch vehicle that placed him cause him to land over 200 mi. beyond into orbit on August 6, 1961. Speaking at the Third International the planned impact area, out of radio Space Science Symposium in Washington, D.C., Titov says the range. After thrust of his booster, using six liquid-fueled engines of the Vostok three hours in type, was 1,323,000 lb. This makes it comparable to the U.S. a life raft he is Saturn launch vehicle. Flight International, May 10, 1962, p. 749. safely recovered by a Navy May 5 Cunard Eagle Airways becomes the first British independent airline to put helicopter from jets into service, introducing the Boeing 707 on its route from London to Bermuda, the USS Intrepid. Nassau, Miami, and Jamaica. The airline will work with the parent corporation, I. Ertel and M. Cunard Steamship, to promote its ‘one-way sea and one-way air’ transatlantic Morse, The package. Aviation Week, April 16, 1962, p. 39. Apollo Spacecraft, Vol. I, pp. 160-161; United States Naval Aviation 1910- May 8 NASA announces the selection of three contractors for major components 1980, p. 245. of the Apollo spacecraft guidance and navigation system. They are the AC Spark Plug Div. of General Motors, for fabrication of the inertial gyroscope stabilization May 26 The F-1 rocket engine of 1.5 platform and other components; Raytheon, for the digital computer aboard the million lb thrust is successfully fired spacecraft; and Kollsman Instrument, for the optical subsystems, including a space at full power for the first time for sextant, Sun-finders, and navigation display equipment. I. Ertel and M. Morse, The 2.5 min, from the Edwards Rocket Apollo Spacecraft, Vol. I, p. 160. Site at Edwards AFB, Calif. I. Ertel and M. Morse, The Apollo Spacecraft, May 9 The Sikorsky S-64 Flying Crane heavy-lift Vol. I, p. 161. helicopter, powered by two Pratt & Whitney turbine engines, achieves its first flight. Designed to carry May 29 Vice Adm. Patrick N.L. a useful load of 20,760 lb, the giant helicopter Bellinger, the Navy aviation pioneer
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An Aerospace Chronology by Frank H. Winter and Robert van der Linden
who began his career completely destroyed while being moored at Lakehurst, N.J., following the in 1912 as Naval end of its first transatlantic voyage. Of 33 passengers, 16 are killed, as are Aviator No. 8, dies 17 of 61 crewmembers, including the captain, Ernst Lehmann. This is con- at Clifton Forge, Pa. sidered one of the greatest disasters in aviation history and brings an end to His career included the era of large diri gibles. There are many theories about why the hydrogen- being the first Navy filled craft exploded, from sabotage to igniting of the hydrogen by St. Elmo’s pilot to return home fire. The Aeroplane, May 12, 1937, p. 556. with a bullet hole in his plane, which was hit May 8 Italy claims the world’s flight altitude record during the occupation of when Col. Mario Pezzi flies to 51,361 ft in his Vera Cruz, Mexico, in 1914. In 1941, Caproni 161 at Montecelio, Italy. He exceeds the as a rear admiral, Bellinger was the previous record by 1,417 ft, set by England’s Sqn. senior officer at Pearl Harbor during Ldr. F.R.D. Swain in September 1936. Flight, May the bombing by the Japanese and 13, 1937, p. 483; Flight, May 20, 1937, p. 502. personally sent out the first radio alert: “Air Raid. Pearl Harbor—this is no May 9 Hugh F. Pierce launches his independently built liquid-fuel rocket to an drill.” By 1943, he was given command altitude of about 250 ft, from Old Ferris Point in the Bronx, N.Y. In 1941, with of the Atlantic Fleet Air Force. He three others, Pierce founded Reaction Motors, America’s first commercial liquid-fuel retired in 1949. United States Naval rocket company. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics 1915-60, p. 35. Aviation 1910-1980, p. 245; Patrick N.L. Bellinger file, NASM. And During May 1937
And During —The German army opens its Versuchsstelle Peenemunde (Experimental May 1962 Station) on the Baltic. The work leads to the creation of missiles that eventually include the infamous V-2 rocket of WW II. Army Ordnance —The first Piper Capt. Walter R. Dornberger moves his staff of about 90 into the facility Aztec B light aircraft from their previous research and test site of Kummersdorf, outside sold in Britain is Berlin. Civilian Wernher von Braun heads the research and design ferried across the group. G. Kennedy, Vengeance Weapon 2, p. 12. Atlantic by famed U.S. pilot Max 100 Years Ago, May 1912 Conrad, who thereby completes his 88th Atlantic crossing and 40,000 hr May 30 Wilbur Wright dies of typhoid fever. Co-inventor of of flight. The Aztec is delivered to the airplane with his brother Orville, he is also considered the Whitbread for eventual use by another first pilot. The Wrights followed the experiments of the firm, Air Couriers. Flight International, German Otto Lilienthal in the 1890s and later those of May 10, 1962, p. 721; Max Conrad Octave Chanute, with whom they corresponded. The brothers file, NASM. started their own systematic experiments with a manned glider in 1900. The key to their eventual success was wing 75 Years Ago, May 1937 warping. After about 1,000 glides, they built a suitable four-cylinder engine and on December 17, 1903, succeeded May 6 The German dirigible in making the first heavier-than-air flights. By 1904, they made the first complete Hindenburg bursts into flames and is circles and landing at the starting point, fully establishing controlled flight. Wilbur became ill after lengthy travels throughout Europe and the U.S., where he filed lawsuits protecting the Wrights’ patent on the invention of the heavier-than-air craft. Flight, June 1, 1912, pp. 488-489 and June 8, 1912, p. 519.
And During May 1912
—The Chinese military organize a flying corps of five biplanes, headquartered at Nanking. But the planes are to be transferred to Canton, where there is a more suitable flying field. Flight, May 11, 1912, p. 426.
AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2012 47 Mechanical, Automotive and Materials Engineering
Two Assistant Professor Tenure-Track Positions in Aerospace
The University of Windsor, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Mechanical, Automotive and Materials Engineering Department (MAME) invites applications for two tenure-track faculty positions. Both positions will be at the rank of Assistant Professor in a newly established Aerospace Option in the Mechanical Engineering Program. These positions are subject to final budgetary approval.
Located at one of Canada’s major international intersections, the University of Windsor plays a leading role in the future of the region and the province of Ontario. With approximately 16,000 students, including 1,700 students in a broad range of masters and doctoral programs, the University of Windsor is Canada’s most personal comprehensive university.
The successful candidates are expected to engage in establishing and leading an exciting and innovative undergraduate option in Aero- space Engineering that is focused on airplanes and related systems manufacturing, repair, overhaul, and maintenance. In particular, consideration will be given to applicants with teaching experience and expertise in areas including, but not limited to Aerospace Engineer- ing Fundamentals, Flightworthiness, and Aerospace Controls and Avionics.
Concurrently, we are interested in candidates whose research interests align with the above specified teaching need areas. It is expected that the successful candidates will establish a dynamic externally funded research program that complements existing Mechanical and Materials Graduate programs, offer graduate courses, supervise graduate students and engage in department and university service activities.
The MAME Department is the largest department in the Faculty of Engineering. It offers a multi-faceted program that tackles real-world problems, interacts with local industry, and provides students ample opportunities for hands-on experience. Major research areas are in design and optimization of energy conversion systems focusing on automotive applications; light-weight and low-wear materials; and design of innovative mechanical structures; and manufacturing processes. The Phase 2 move of the Faculty of Engineering into one of the most advanced engineering facilities in Canada, the Centre for Engineering Innovation (CEI), www.uwindsor.ca/cei, is expected for Fall 2012. Refer to www.uwindsor.ca/mame for more information about MAME.
Applicants must have a doctoral degree, preferably from an aerospace engineering program; eligibility for a PEng registration; and a strong commitment to both teaching and research. Selection will be primarily based on applicants’ potential for excellence in teaching and research. Applications should include: • letter of application, including a statement of citizenship/immigration status; • a detailed curriculum vitae, • a concise statement of teaching (one page) and research interest (three pages) and how this relates to the needs of the Aerospace Engineering at the University of Windsor, • career objectives and accomplishments, • examples of material relevant to teaching experience, and • most significant research publications, and • three current letters of reference forwarded directly by the referees to the Department Head.
Applications should be submitted to:
Professor A. Sobiesiak, Department Head Faculty of Engineering, Department of Mechanical, Automotive & Materials Engineering University of Windsor, 401 Sunset Ave, Windsor, Ontario, Canada N9B 3P4 Phone: 519-253-3000 Ext. 2616, Email: [email protected]
Applications will be accepted until the positions are filled. The University of Windsor is committed to equity in its academic policies, practices, and pro- grams; supports diversity in its teaching, learning, and work environments; and ensures that applications from members of traditionally marginalized groups are seriously considered under its employment equity policy. Those who would contribute to the further diversification of our faculty and its scholarship include, but are not limited to, women, Aboriginal peoples, persons with disabilities, members of visible minorities, and members of sexual minority groups. The University of Windsor invites you to apply to our welcoming community and to self-identify as a member of one of these groups. International candi- dates are encouraged to apply; however Canadians and permanent residents will be given priority. To ensure that you are considered within the priorities of the Employment Equity Program, you may self identify in your letter of application or in a separate letter to the Presidential Commission on Employment Equity, c/o Gerri Pacecca, The Office of the Provost and Vice-President Academic, 511 Chrysler Hall Tower, 401 Sunset Avenue, University of Windsor, Windsor, Ontario, N9B 3P4. The University of Windsor, one of Ontario’s leading academic institutions, provides a learning-centred approach which pre- pares its graduates for the challenges of tomorrow. Information about the University of Windsor and its programs may be found at http://www.uwindsor. ca. For more information on living and working at the University of Windsor, visit the Faculty Recruitment and Retention website at http://www.uwindsor. ca/facultyrecruitment, or contact Ms. Gerri Pacecca (Email: [email protected]), Coordinator, Faculty Recruitment and Retention, Office of the Provost and Vice-President Academic toll- free at 1-877- 665-6608 within North America or call collect outside of North America at 001-519-561-1432. AIAAAIAABulletinBulletin MAY 2012 AIAA Meeting Schedule B2 AIAA Courses & Training B4 Program Schedule AIAA News B5 AIAA Publications B15 AIAA Meeting Program B16 AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Conference AIAA Atmospheric Flight Mechanics Conference AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technologies Conference AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conference AIAA Calls for Papers B25 22nd AIAA Aerodynamic Decelerator Systems AIAA members Hannah Thoreson, Danny Riley, and Tracey Dodrill with Arizona Technology Conference and Seminar Congressman Ben Quayle at the 2012 Congressional Visits Day. They were among AIAA Balloon Systems Conference the 176 AIAA members from 44 AIAA sections who met with their elected represen- 20th AIAA Lighter-Than-Air Systems Technology tatives and discussed matters of vital importance to the U.S. aerospace community. Conference For the full article, go to pages B8–B9. 23rd AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting AIAA Courses and Training B31 Program Standard Conference Information B36
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May2012ToCB1.indd 1 4/13/12 11:03 AM dAte eetI CAtI CA r ABstrACt Issue of AIAA Bulletin in A ers deAd I e which program appears Bulletin in which Call for Papers appears 14–18 May† th spacecra t Chargi g tech o og Co ere ce itakyushu, Japan Contact: Mengu Cho, 81 93 884 3228, [email protected]. ac.jp, http://laseine.ele.kyutech.ac.jp/12thsctc.html 22–24 May o a space e p oratio Co ere ce e Apr Washington, DC t dec 22–25 May† th I ter atio a Co ere ce o research i Air tra sportatio Berkeley, CA Contact: Andres ellweger, 301.330.5514, ICrAt [email protected], www.icrat.org 4–6 Jun 8th AIAA/CeAs Aeroacoustics Co ere ce Colorado Springs, CO un 9 ov r AIAA Aeroacoustics Co ere ce 4–6 Jun† 9th st eters urg I ter atio a Co ere ce o I tegrate St. Petersburg, Russia avigatio s stems Contact: Prof. V. Peshekhonov, 7 812 238 8210, [email protected], www.elektropribor.spb.ru 7 Jun Aerospace to a a tomorrow: A e ecutive s mposium Williamsburg, VA Contact: Merrie Scott; [email protected]