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Japan, Russia and the "Northern Territories" Dispute : Neighbors in Search of a Good Fence

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Japan, Russia and the View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2002-09 Japan, Russia and the "northern territories" dispute : neighbors in search of a good fence Morris, Gregory L. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/4801 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS JAPAN, RUSSIA AND THE “NORTHERN TERRITORIES” DISPUTE: NEIGHBORS IN SEARCH OF A GOOD FENCE by Gregory L. Morris September, 2002 Thesis Advisors: Mikhail Tsypkin Douglas Porch Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED September 2002 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: Japan, Russia And The “Northern Territories” Dispute: 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Neighbors In Search Of A Good Fence n/a 6. AUTHOR(S) LT Gregory L. Morris, USN 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Russo-Japanese relations are held hostage by a group of four islands just north of Hokkaido. This thesis attempts to answer whether the dispute may be solved, and what is necessary for resolution. The argument is made that the islands have little strategic or material value of themselves, but symbolically they are of great value to both Russia and Japan. Public opinion and domestic politics in both countries drives the debate and is the reason for the stalemate, as there is almost no room for negotiators to work with. There is increased cooperation and better relations between Japan and Russia, and both countries recognize benefits that would come about if the territorial dispute was resolved. However, because the issue is swathed in pride and symbolism, resolution in the near term is unlikely unless an external stimulus provides an incentive to change the paradigm upon which Russo-Japanese relations are based. 14. SUBJECT TERMS JAPAN—FOREIGN RELATIONS—RUSSIA (FEDERATION); JAPAN— 15. NUMBER OF FOREIGN RELATIONS—1638-; JAPAN—FOREIGN RELATIONS—SOVIET UNION; SOVIET PAGES UNION—FOREIGN RELATIONS—JAPAN; KURIL ISLANDS (RUSSIA); NORTHERN 120 TERRITORIES; NORTHEAST ASIAN SECURITY; JAPAN—BOUNDARIES—RUSSIA 16. PRICE CODE (FEDERATION) 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited JAPAN, RUSSIA AND THE “NORTHERN TERRITORIES” DISPUTE: NEIGHBORS IN SEARCH OF A GOOD FENCE Gregory L. Morris Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A., University of Virginia, 1996 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 2002 Author: Gregory L. Morris Approved by: Mikhail Tsypkin Thesis Co-Advisor Douglas Porch Thesis Co-Advisor James Wirtz Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT Russo-Japanese relations are held hostage by a group of four islands just north of Hokkaido. This thesis attempts to answer whether the dispute may be solved, and what is necessary for resolution. The argument is made that the islands have little strategic or material value of themselves, but symbolically they are of great value to both Russia and Japan. Public opinion and domestic politics in both countries drives the debate and is the reason for the stalemate, as there is almost no room for negotiators to work with. There is increased cooperation and better relations between Japan and Russia, and both countries recognize benefits that would come about if the territorial dispute was resolved. However, because the issue is swathed in pride and symbolism, resolution in the near term is unlikely unless an external stimulus provides an incentive to change the paradigm upon which Russo-Japanese relations are based. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................... 1 A. A TANTALIZING QUESTION .................................................................... 1 B. WHAT ARE THE “NORTHERN TERRITORIES?” ................................ 1 C. RELEVANCE, PURPOSE AND ORGANIZATION .................................. 2 D. METHODOLOGY.......................................................................................... 5 E. A NOTE ON NAMES, SPELLINGS AND TERMS.................................... 6 II. ORIGINS OF THE TERRITORIAL DISPUTE...................................................... 9 A. A BRIEF HISTORY ....................................................................................... 9 1. The ‘Opening’ of Japan ...................................................................... 9 2. Modernization and Equality ............................................................ 12 3. Hostile Friends and Fearsome Enemies .......................................... 17 B. WHENCE THE “NORTHERN TERRITORIES?” .................................. 20 1. Respective Claims.............................................................................. 21 2. Abnormal Normalization.................................................................. 25 III. VALUE OF THE “NORTHERN TERRITORIES” ................................................... 27 A. REAL OR IMAGINED VALUE? ............................................................... 27 B. STRATEGIC VALUE .................................................................................. 27 1. Japan and the Northern Frontier .................................................... 27 2. Defense of ‘Lake Okhotsk’ ............................................................... 29 C. ECONOMIC VALUE................................................................................... 32 1. Fisheries.............................................................................................. 33 2. Economic Threat ............................................................................... 34 3. Other Value........................................................................................ 35 D. VALUABLE, BUT… .................................................................................... 36 IV. DOMESTIC CONSTRAINTS IN RUSSIA AND JAPAN.......................................... 37 A. PUBLIC OPINION, MUTUAL PERCEPTIONS AND THE MEDIA .... 37 B. NATIONAL MYTHS.................................................................................... 43 C. POLITICIANS AND POLITICS................................................................. 47 1. Personal Interference in Inter-State Relations............................... 50 V. ANALYSIS OF CURRENT RELATIONS.................................................................... 55 A. PROGRESS AND STALEMATE................................................................ 55 B. COOPERATION VERSUS FRICTION..................................................... 55 C. “FLOWERS WITHOUT ROOTS”............................................................. 63 D. IF THE FLOWERS HAD ROOTS.............................................................. 70 VI. WHAT CONDITIONS MIGHT SHIFT THE PARADIGM?.................................... 75 A. EXTERNAL STIMULI ................................................................................ 76 1. Hostile China ..................................................................................... 77 2. Disruption of Oil................................................................................ 80 3. Russia in NATO................................................................................. 82 4. No Guarantee..................................................................................... 84 B. IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL SECURITY..................................... 84 vii 1. Resolution........................................................................................... 85 2. Non-resolution ..................................................................................
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