Short Recap: Σ-Algebras Generated by Maps
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Measure-Theoretic Probability I
Measure-Theoretic Probability I Steven P.Lalley Winter 2017 1 1 Measure Theory 1.1 Why Measure Theory? There are two different views – not necessarily exclusive – on what “probability” means: the subjectivist view and the frequentist view. To the subjectivist, probability is a system of laws that should govern a rational person’s behavior in situations where a bet must be placed (not necessarily just in a casino, but in situations where a decision must be made about how to proceed when only imperfect information about the outcome of the decision is available, for instance, should I allow Dr. Scissorhands to replace my arthritic knee by a plastic joint?). To the frequentist, the laws of probability describe the long- run relative frequencies of different events in “experiments” that can be repeated under roughly identical conditions, for instance, rolling a pair of dice. For the frequentist inter- pretation, it is imperative that probability spaces be large enough to allow a description of an experiment, like dice-rolling, that is repeated infinitely many times, and that the mathematical laws should permit easy handling of limits, so that one can make sense of things like “the probability that the long-run fraction of dice rolls where the two dice sum to 7 is 1/6”. But even for the subjectivist, the laws of probability should allow for description of situations where there might be a continuum of possible outcomes, or pos- sible actions to be taken. Once one is reconciled to the need for such flexibility, it soon becomes apparent that measure theory (the theory of countably additive, as opposed to merely finitely additive measures) is the only way to go. -
1.5. Set Functions and Properties. Let Л Be Any Set of Subsets of E
1.5. Set functions and properties. Let A be any set of subsets of E containing the empty set ∅. A set function is a function µ : A → [0, ∞] with µ(∅)=0. Let µ be a set function. Say that µ is increasing if, for all A, B ∈ A with A ⊆ B, µ(A) ≤ µ(B). Say that µ is additive if, for all disjoint sets A, B ∈ A with A ∪ B ∈ A, µ(A ∪ B)= µ(A)+ µ(B). Say that µ is countably additive if, for all sequences of disjoint sets (An : n ∈ N) in A with n An ∈ A, S µ An = µ(An). n ! n [ X Say that µ is countably subadditive if, for all sequences (An : n ∈ N) in A with n An ∈ A, S µ An ≤ µ(An). n ! n [ X 1.6. Construction of measures. Let A be a set of subsets of E. Say that A is a ring on E if ∅ ∈ A and, for all A, B ∈ A, B \ A ∈ A, A ∪ B ∈ A. Say that A is an algebra on E if ∅ ∈ A and, for all A, B ∈ A, Ac ∈ A, A ∪ B ∈ A. Theorem 1.6.1 (Carath´eodory’s extension theorem). Let A be a ring of subsets of E and let µ : A → [0, ∞] be a countably additive set function. Then µ extends to a measure on the σ-algebra generated by A. Proof. For any B ⊆ E, define the outer measure ∗ µ (B) = inf µ(An) n X where the infimum is taken over all sequences (An : n ∈ N) in A such that B ⊆ n An and is taken to be ∞ if there is no such sequence. -
Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes
Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes Antonio Jiménez-Martínez Chapter 1 Probability spaces In this chapter we introduce the theoretical structures that will allow us to assign proba- bilities in a wide range of probability problems. 1.1. Examples of random phenomena Science attempts to formulate general laws on the basis of observation and experiment. The simplest and most used scheme of such laws is: if a set of conditions B is satisfied =) event A occurs. Examples of such laws are the law of gravity, the law of conservation of mass, and many other instances in chemistry, physics, biology... If event A occurs inevitably whenever the set of conditions B is satisfied, we say that A is certain or sure (under the set of conditions B). If A can never occur whenever B is satisfied, we say that A is impossible (under the set of conditions B). If A may or may not occur whenever B is satisfied, then A is said to be a random phenomenon. Random phenomena is our subject matter. Unlike certain and impossible events, the presence of randomness implies that the set of conditions B do not reflect all the necessary and sufficient conditions for the event A to occur. It might seem them impossible to make any worthwhile statements about random phenomena. However, experience has shown that many random phenomena exhibit a statistical regularity that makes them subject to study. For such random phenomena it is possible to estimate the chance of occurrence of the random event. This estimate can be obtained from laws, called probabilistic or stochastic, with the form: if a set of conditions B is satisfied event A occurs m times =) repeatedly n times out of the n repetitions. -
A Bayesian Level Set Method for Geometric Inverse Problems
Interfaces and Free Boundaries 18 (2016), 181–217 DOI 10.4171/IFB/362 A Bayesian level set method for geometric inverse problems MARCO A. IGLESIAS School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK E-mail: [email protected] YULONG LU Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK E-mail: [email protected] ANDREW M. STUART Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK E-mail: [email protected] [Received 3 April 2015 and in revised form 10 February 2016] We introduce a level set based approach to Bayesian geometric inverse problems. In these problems the interface between different domains is the key unknown, and is realized as the level set of a function. This function itself becomes the object of the inference. Whilst the level set methodology has been widely used for the solution of geometric inverse problems, the Bayesian formulation that we develop here contains two significant advances: firstly it leads to a well-posed inverse problem in which the posterior distribution is Lipschitz with respect to the observed data, and may be used to not only estimate interface locations, but quantify uncertainty in them; and secondly it leads to computationally expedient algorithms in which the level set itself is updated implicitly via the MCMC methodology applied to the level set function – no explicit velocity field is required for the level set interface. Applications are numerous and include medical imaging, modelling of subsurface formations and the inverse source problem; our theory is illustrated with computational results involving the last two applications. -
Generalized Stochastic Processes with Independent Values
GENERALIZED STOCHASTIC PROCESSES WITH INDEPENDENT VALUES K. URBANIK UNIVERSITY OF WROCFAW AND MATHEMATICAL INSTITUTE POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Let O denote the space of all infinitely differentiable real-valued functions defined on the real line and vanishing outside a compact set. The support of a function so E X, that is, the closure of the set {x: s(x) F 0} will be denoted by s(,o). We shall consider 3D as a topological space with the topology introduced by Schwartz (section 1, chapter 3 in [9]). Any continuous linear functional on this space is a Schwartz distribution, a generalized function. Let us consider the space O of all real-valued random variables defined on the same sample space. The distance between two random variables X and Y will be the Frechet distance p(X, Y) = E[X - Yl/(l + IX - YI), that is, the distance induced by the convergence in probability. Any C-valued continuous linear functional defined on a is called a generalized stochastic process. Every ordinary stochastic process X(t) for which almost all realizations are locally integrable may be considered as a generalized stochastic process. In fact, we make the generalized process T((p) = f X(t),p(t) dt, with sp E 1, correspond to the process X(t). Further, every generalized stochastic process is differentiable. The derivative is given by the formula T'(w) = - T(p'). The theory of generalized stochastic processes was developed by Gelfand [4] and It6 [6]. The method of representation of generalized stochastic processes by means of sequences of ordinary processes was considered in [10]. -
Measure, Integral and Probability
Marek Capinski´ and Ekkehard Kopp Measure, Integral and Probability Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg NewYork London Paris Tokyo Hong Kong Barcelona Budapest To our children; grandchildren: Piotr, Maciej, Jan, Anna; Luk asz Anna, Emily Preface The central concepts in this book are Lebesgue measure and the Lebesgue integral. Their role as standard fare in UK undergraduate mathematics courses is not wholly secure; yet they provide the principal model for the development of the abstract measure spaces which underpin modern probability theory, while the Lebesgue function spaces remain the main source of examples on which to test the methods of functional analysis and its many applications, such as Fourier analysis and the theory of partial differential equations. It follows that not only budding analysts have need of a clear understanding of the construction and properties of measures and integrals, but also that those who wish to contribute seriously to the applications of analytical methods in a wide variety of areas of mathematics, physics, electronics, engineering and, most recently, finance, need to study the underlying theory with some care. We have found remarkably few texts in the current literature which aim explicitly to provide for these needs, at a level accessible to current under- graduates. There are many good books on modern probability theory, and increasingly they recognize the need for a strong grounding in the tools we develop in this book, but all too often the treatment is either too advanced for an undergraduate audience or else somewhat perfunctory. We hope therefore that the current text will not be regarded as one which fills a much-needed gap in the literature! One fundamental decision in developing a treatment of integration is whether to begin with measures or integrals, i.e. -
Determinism, Indeterminism and the Statistical Postulate
Tipicality, Explanation, The Statistical Postulate, and GRW Valia Allori Northern Illinois University [email protected] www.valiaallori.com Rutgers, October 24-26, 2019 1 Overview Context: Explanation of the macroscopic laws of thermodynamics in the Boltzmannian approach Among the ingredients: the statistical postulate (connected with the notion of probability) In this presentation: typicality Def: P is a typical property of X-type object/phenomena iff the vast majority of objects/phenomena of type X possesses P Part I: typicality is sufficient to explain macroscopic laws – explanatory schema based on typicality: you explain P if you explain that P is typical Part II: the statistical postulate as derivable from the dynamics Part III: if so, no preference for indeterministic theories in the quantum domain 2 Summary of Boltzmann- 1 Aim: ‘derive’ macroscopic laws of thermodynamics in terms of the microscopic Newtonian dynamics Problems: Technical ones: There are to many particles to do exact calculations Solution: statistical methods - if 푁 is big enough, one can use suitable mathematical technique to obtain information of macro systems even without having the exact solution Conceptual ones: Macro processes are irreversible, while micro processes are not Boltzmann 3 Summary of Boltzmann- 2 Postulate 1: the microscopic dynamics microstate 푋 = 푟1, … . 푟푁, 푣1, … . 푣푁 in phase space Partition of phase space into Macrostates Macrostate 푀(푋): set of macroscopically indistinguishable microstates Macroscopic view Many 푋 for a given 푀 given 푀, which 푋 is unknown Macro Properties (e.g. temperature): they slowly vary on the Macro scale There is a particular Macrostate which is incredibly bigger than the others There are many ways more to have, for instance, uniform temperature than not equilibrium (Macro)state 4 Summary of Boltzmann- 3 Entropy: (def) proportional to the size of the Macrostate in phase space (i.e. -
The Axiom of Choice and Its Implications
THE AXIOM OF CHOICE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS KEVIN BARNUM Abstract. In this paper we will look at the Axiom of Choice and some of the various implications it has. These implications include a number of equivalent statements, and also some less accepted ideas. The proofs discussed will give us an idea of why the Axiom of Choice is so powerful, but also so controversial. Contents 1. Introduction 1 2. The Axiom of Choice and Its Equivalents 1 2.1. The Axiom of Choice and its Well-known Equivalents 1 2.2. Some Other Less Well-known Equivalents of the Axiom of Choice 3 3. Applications of the Axiom of Choice 5 3.1. Equivalence Between The Axiom of Choice and the Claim that Every Vector Space has a Basis 5 3.2. Some More Applications of the Axiom of Choice 6 4. Controversial Results 10 Acknowledgments 11 References 11 1. Introduction The Axiom of Choice states that for any family of nonempty disjoint sets, there exists a set that consists of exactly one element from each element of the family. It seems strange at first that such an innocuous sounding idea can be so powerful and controversial, but it certainly is both. To understand why, we will start by looking at some statements that are equivalent to the axiom of choice. Many of these equivalences are very useful, and we devote much time to one, namely, that every vector space has a basis. We go on from there to see a few more applications of the Axiom of Choice and its equivalents, and finish by looking at some of the reasons why the Axiom of Choice is so controversial. -
Topic 1: Basic Probability Definition of Sets
Topic 1: Basic probability ² Review of sets ² Sample space and probability measure ² Probability axioms ² Basic probability laws ² Conditional probability ² Bayes' rules ² Independence ² Counting ES150 { Harvard SEAS 1 De¯nition of Sets ² A set S is a collection of objects, which are the elements of the set. { The number of elements in a set S can be ¯nite S = fx1; x2; : : : ; xng or in¯nite but countable S = fx1; x2; : : :g or uncountably in¯nite. { S can also contain elements with a certain property S = fx j x satis¯es P g ² S is a subset of T if every element of S also belongs to T S ½ T or T S If S ½ T and T ½ S then S = T . ² The universal set is the set of all objects within a context. We then consider all sets S ½ . ES150 { Harvard SEAS 2 Set Operations and Properties ² Set operations { Complement Ac: set of all elements not in A { Union A \ B: set of all elements in A or B or both { Intersection A [ B: set of all elements common in both A and B { Di®erence A ¡ B: set containing all elements in A but not in B. ² Properties of set operations { Commutative: A \ B = B \ A and A [ B = B [ A. (But A ¡ B 6= B ¡ A). { Associative: (A \ B) \ C = A \ (B \ C) = A \ B \ C. (also for [) { Distributive: A \ (B [ C) = (A \ B) [ (A \ C) A [ (B \ C) = (A [ B) \ (A [ C) { DeMorgan's laws: (A \ B)c = Ac [ Bc (A [ B)c = Ac \ Bc ES150 { Harvard SEAS 3 Elements of probability theory A probabilistic model includes ² The sample space of an experiment { set of all possible outcomes { ¯nite or in¯nite { discrete or continuous { possibly multi-dimensional ² An event A is a set of outcomes { a subset of the sample space, A ½ . -
Old Notes from Warwick, Part 1
Measure Theory, MA 359 Handout 1 Valeriy Slastikov Autumn, 2005 1 Measure theory 1.1 General construction of Lebesgue measure In this section we will do the general construction of σ-additive complete measure by extending initial σ-additive measure on a semi-ring to a measure on σ-algebra generated by this semi-ring and then completing this measure by adding to the σ-algebra all the null sets. This section provides you with the essentials of the construction and make some parallels with the construction on the plane. Throughout these section we will deal with some collection of sets whose elements are subsets of some fixed abstract set X. It is not necessary to assume any topology on X but for simplicity you may imagine X = Rn. We start with some important definitions: Definition 1.1 A nonempty collection of sets S is a semi-ring if 1. Empty set ? 2 S; 2. If A 2 S; B 2 S then A \ B 2 S; n 3. If A 2 S; A ⊃ A1 2 S then A = [k=1Ak, where Ak 2 S for all 1 ≤ k ≤ n and Ak are disjoint sets. If the set X 2 S then S is called semi-algebra, the set X is called a unit of the collection of sets S. Example 1.1 The collection S of intervals [a; b) for all a; b 2 R form a semi-ring since 1. empty set ? = [a; a) 2 S; 2. if A 2 S and B 2 S then A = [a; b) and B = [c; d). -
(Measure Theory for Dummies) UWEE Technical Report Number UWEETR-2006-0008
A Measure Theory Tutorial (Measure Theory for Dummies) Maya R. Gupta {gupta}@ee.washington.edu Dept of EE, University of Washington Seattle WA, 98195-2500 UWEE Technical Report Number UWEETR-2006-0008 May 2006 Department of Electrical Engineering University of Washington Box 352500 Seattle, Washington 98195-2500 PHN: (206) 543-2150 FAX: (206) 543-3842 URL: http://www.ee.washington.edu A Measure Theory Tutorial (Measure Theory for Dummies) Maya R. Gupta {gupta}@ee.washington.edu Dept of EE, University of Washington Seattle WA, 98195-2500 University of Washington, Dept. of EE, UWEETR-2006-0008 May 2006 Abstract This tutorial is an informal introduction to measure theory for people who are interested in reading papers that use measure theory. The tutorial assumes one has had at least a year of college-level calculus, some graduate level exposure to random processes, and familiarity with terms like “closed” and “open.” The focus is on the terms and ideas relevant to applied probability and information theory. There are no proofs and no exercises. Measure theory is a bit like grammar, many people communicate clearly without worrying about all the details, but the details do exist and for good reasons. There are a number of great texts that do measure theory justice. This is not one of them. Rather this is a hack way to get the basic ideas down so you can read through research papers and follow what’s going on. Hopefully, you’ll get curious and excited enough about the details to check out some of the references for a deeper understanding. -
Measure Theory and Probability
Measure theory and probability Alexander Grigoryan University of Bielefeld Lecture Notes, October 2007 - February 2008 Contents 1 Construction of measures 3 1.1Introductionandexamples........................... 3 1.2 σ-additive measures ............................... 5 1.3 An example of using probability theory . .................. 7 1.4Extensionofmeasurefromsemi-ringtoaring................ 8 1.5 Extension of measure to a σ-algebra...................... 11 1.5.1 σ-rings and σ-algebras......................... 11 1.5.2 Outermeasure............................. 13 1.5.3 Symmetric difference.......................... 14 1.5.4 Measurable sets . ............................ 16 1.6 σ-finitemeasures................................ 20 1.7Nullsets..................................... 23 1.8 Lebesgue measure in Rn ............................ 25 1.8.1 Productmeasure............................ 25 1.8.2 Construction of measure in Rn. .................... 26 1.9 Probability spaces ................................ 28 1.10 Independence . ................................. 29 2 Integration 38 2.1 Measurable functions.............................. 38 2.2Sequencesofmeasurablefunctions....................... 42 2.3 The Lebesgue integral for finitemeasures................... 47 2.3.1 Simplefunctions............................ 47 2.3.2 Positivemeasurablefunctions..................... 49 2.3.3 Integrablefunctions........................... 52 2.4Integrationoversubsets............................ 56 2.5 The Lebesgue integral for σ-finitemeasure.................