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Arthur Rylah Institute Technical Report Series Arthur Rylah Institute Technical Report Series Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report No. 175 POTENTIAL BIOLOGICAL INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: EVIDENCE FROM PHENOLOGY RECORDS OF PLANTS ALONG THE VICTORIAN COAST Libby Rumpff1, Fiona Coates2,Andre Messina1 and John Morgan1 1Department of Botany, La Trobe University 2Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Sustainability and Environment May 2008 Published by the Victorian Government Department of Sustainability and Environment Melbourne, August 2008 © The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment 2008 This publication is copyright. No part may be reproduced by any process except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. Survey and monitoring recommendations contained in the report remain the intellectual property of the authors. Authorised by the Victorian Government, 8 Nicholson Street, East Melbourne. ISBN 978-1-74208-704-7 (print) ISBN 978-1-74208-705-4 (PDF) For more information contact the DSE Customer Service Centre 136 186 Disclaimer This publication may be of assistance to you but the State of Victoria and its employees do not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication. CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................................2 LIST OF FIGURES..............................................................................................................................2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY......................................................................................................................1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................2 Phenology and the impacts of climate change..............................................................................2 Phenological indicators of climate change ....................................................................................3 Sources of phenological data to assess plant responses to climate change.................................3 Addressing the challenge in Australia ...........................................................................................7 Rationale for the present study.................................................................................................. 10 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................................. 10 METHODS....................................................................................................................................... 11 Site selection and analysis of climate change ............................................................................ 11 The coastal species list............................................................................................................... 11 Sources of phenological data ..................................................................................................... 12 Determination of indicator species using herbarium records..................................................... 14 Analysis....................................................................................................................................... 16 Collation of data ......................................................................................................................... 16 RESULTS ........................................................................................................................................ 17 Climate data ............................................................................................................................... 17 Potentially useful indicator species............................................................................................. 19 Omitted species.......................................................................................................................... 25 DISCUSSION .................................................................................................................................. 27 Functional groups....................................................................................................................... 28 Suitability for monitoring............................................................................................................ 29 Availability and accuracy of data................................................................................................ 29 Additional sources of biological data.......................................................................................... 31 CONCLUSION: Knowledge gaps, future research and community involvement........................... 32 Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................... 33 REFERENCES.................................................................................................................................. 34 APPENDIX ONE .............................................................................................................................. 37 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Examples of uses of herbarium/museum records in biological studies...............................4 Table 2 Potential sources of phenological data for native species in Australia................................9 Table 3. Trends in mean summer and winter minimum and maximum temperatures (oC/year), and mean summer and winter precipitation levels (mm/year), 1910–2006................................... 18 Table 4. Summary of the species identified as being potentially suitable as Indicator Species of climate change............................................................................................................................... 20 Table 5. Results of the linear regression analysis: flowering dates (Julian dates) ~ time........... 20 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Plots of phenological observations over time for useful indicator species. Phenological key: black (flowering), dark pink (flowering and fruiting), light pink (flowering and budding), blue (fruiting), green (budding), red (fertile), and yellow (unknown status). Lines of best-fit are for flowering observations only. .......................................................................................................... 23 Figure 3. Observations of flowering in orchid species over time. Phenological key: black (flowering), blue (fruiting), and green (budding). ........................................................................... 26 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY There is a pressing need to collate data that might assist with understanding the ecological effects of climate change in south-eastern Australia. There is much evidence in the scientific literature that changes in the timing of events such as flowering is one likely consequence of climate change. This project investigated the potential for using herbarium records, combined with other data sources, to track changes in the time of flowering of Victorian coastal species in response to recent climate warming. The main findings of the project were: ¾ There is great potential to utilize data sourced from herbaria, and elsewhere (e.g. naturalist diaries), to identify native plant species suitable as bioindicators of climate change, and to provide background historical data for comparison of future observations. ¾ Of the 105 candidate species investigated in this study, 12 species were identified as useful indicator species to track future changes due to climate warming. ¾ There is some evidence to suggest that species which flower in late-winter to early-spring may be more sensitive to changes in temperature than species with a wider flowering period. ¾ Issues with using herbaria records, in combination with other sources to select indicator species, lies in the accuracy and availability of data. It is proposed that this could be resolved by combining these data sets with detailed studies of phenological cycles in climatically different locations. ¾ Further attention needs to be directed toward collating and digitizing records held within the community, i.e. field naturalist notes. Additionally, it is proposed that future monitoring of indicator species might best be achieved by working with coastal community groups, and facilitated by setting up a phenological observation database. 1 INTRODUCTION Phenology and the impacts of climate change ‘Phenology’ is the study of natural cyclic events and it typically refers to the observation of life cycle changes in plants and animals over time (Menzel 2002). It has long been recognised that phenological cycles are often strongly influenced by changes in climate, particularly temperature and rainfall (de Groot, Ketner et al. 1995; Hughes 2000; Menzel 2002; Chambers 2006; Penuelas and Filella 2007; Rosenzweig, Karoly et al. 2008) and hence, these changes may inform us about how plants are responding to a climate changed world. Although we have some information on how climate change may affect the phenology of plant species, there is still a dearth of knowledge in this area in Australia. Numerous (mostly Northern Hemisphere) studies have
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