After a Decade of Growth and Recovery, What Is in Store for The
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After a Decade of Growth and Recovery, What’s in Store for the Hospitality Industry? By Joseph Pierce, MAI Looking back at the past always helps to give an indication of what the future may hold. The hotel industry has shown tremendous growth in all metrics since 2009. Forecasts show occupancy levels starting to decline while demand and supply level and ADR will grow. The consolidation of brand companies and new brand offerings that occurred in the past decade will continue. Labor issues have been the major downside of the industry growth. For the hotel industry, the 2010’s ushered in by one of the worst economic periods in our nation’s history, the Great Recession have been succeeded by a period of strong growth. While economists will note that the recession ended in June 2009, they also acknowledge that such a conclusion does not occur evenly over all market segments, industries, and regions. That acknowledgment held true for the hotel industry as its metrics climbed back from some the worst performance levels ever recorded, as hotel brands carried on with robust expanded offerings, and as labor shortages and retention issues come to the forefront of an industry on the upswing. Occupancy, ADR, and Supply For the hotel industry, 2008 and 2009 saw sharp declines in occupancy, with 2009’s ADR declining by 8.8% according to STR. As shown in the following table, while ADR would need at least one more year before it would begin to recover, occupancy began a consistent march upwards to a record high in 2018 and matched in 2019. Occupancy and ADR Growth 70 $135.00 $130.00 65 $125.00 60 $120.00 $115.00 55 $110.00 ADR 50 $105.00 Occupancy % $100.00 45 $95.00 40 $90.00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Occupancy % ADR Source: STR Cleveland, Ohio ● 216-228-7000 www.hladvisors.com San Antonio, Texas ● 210-319-5440 Corporate Headquarters: 14805 Detroit Avenue, Suite 420, Cleveland, Ohio 44107-3921 After a Decade of Growth and Recovery, What’s in Store for the Hospitality Industry? Page 2 The growth in occupancy has been aided by a number of factors. The United States economy set a record for economic expansion on July 1, 2019, and that trend continued through the third quarter of 2019. Record low unemployment and a consumer-driven economy has helped drive the industry’s growth. But another significant factor is the growth in supply of hotel rooms. Hotel Guestroom Availability vs Occupancy % 5,500 70 65 5,000 60 4,500 55 50 4,000 45 % Occupancy Hotel Guestroom Availability Guestroom Hotel 3,500 40 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: STR Supply (in thousands) Occupancy % Since 2009, the supply of available hotel guestrooms has increased an average of per year while occupancy has increased an average of per year. As the previous table shows, the supply of available hotel guestrooms grew only modestly from 2010 through 2014 while occupancy demand grew at a stronger pace. However, from 2015 through 2019 occupancy has increased an average of only per year while the growth of available guestrooms grew an average of per year. As of November 2019, Lodging Econometrics’ forecast for 2020 new hotel openings stood at 1,112 new hotels/122,702 rooms followed by 1,126 new hotels/130,447 rooms scheduled to open in 2021. Hotel Brand Expansions As global hotel brands recognized the need to expand beyond their base of loyal customers, this past decade saw a wave of mergers and acquisitions (M&A). The most noted merger was Marriott’s acquisition of Starwood Hotels & Resorts, but it was only one of many. M&A activity, which allowed brands to expand their footprints geographically and through different classes of properties, spanned from luxury brands to economy brands, and from North America to Africa and Australia. The following table identifies a number of mergers and acquisitions that took place from 2010 to 2019 and involved global brands. After a Decade of Growth and Recovery, What’s in Store for the Hospitality Industry? Page 3 Mergers and Acquisitions Year Buyer Merged or Acquired Entity 2010 Wyndham TRYP Hotels 2011 Hyatt Hotel Sierra properties and AVIA hotels Marriott Joint Venture with AC Hotels 2012 Marriott Gaylord Hotels 2014 Marriott Protea Hotels 2015 Marriott Delta Hotels and Resorts IHG Kimpton Hotels & Restaurants Wyndham Dolce Hotels & Resorts RLH C orp Guesthouse International 2016 Marriott Starwood Hotels & Resorts Wyndham Fen Hotels HNA Tourism Group Carlson Hotels, Inc. RLH C orp Vantage Hospitality Group Accor Hotels FRHI Hotels & Resorts Accor Hotels Partnership with Bayan Tree Accor Hotels 30% stake of 25hours Hotels 2017 Wyndham AmericInn Hotel Accor Hotels 50% stake of Rixos Hotels 2018 Hyatt Two Roads Hospitality Hilton Worldwide Alliance with Playa Hotels & Resorts IHG Majority stake in Regent Hotels & Resorts Wyndham LaQuinta Holdings Jin Jiang Int'l Holdings Radisson Hospitality Choice Hotels Woodspring Suites brand RLH C orp Knights Inn brand Accor Hotels 50% stake in Mantis Group Accor Hotels Mantra Group Accor Hotels 50% stake in SBE Entertainment Group 2019 IHG Six Senses Hotels Resorts Spas Best Western WorldHotels Source: Brand Websites After a Decade of Growth and Recovery, What’s in Store for the Hospitality Industry? Page 4 As the M&A activity shows, global brands have recognized the need to expand their offerings. It is no longer enough to offer simply a full-service hotel, limited-service hotel, and extended stay property. Different generations have different expectations and demand different experiences. The evolution of boutique hotels and lifestyle properties are merely subsets of broader hotel categories and can be further parsed to reflect specific travel needs and desires. Major hotel brands also reached out to independent properties this past decade. The development of collection brands, which bring independent hotels into a major chain’s system, affords an independent property the benefits of a global reservation system and loyalty program without compromising its historic identity. A number of franchisors realigned their brand concepts to target a broader range of guests. Best Western was an example of this strategy when in 2011 it introduced the Best Western Plus and Best Western Premier to the North American market. The following table identifies the number of brands that were introduced in the past decade in various segments. After a Decade of Growth and Recovery, What’s in Store for the Hospitality Industry? Page 5 Brand Expansions Year Brand Hotel Category 2010 Best Western Premier Upscale Home2Suites by Hilton Upper Midscale Best Western Plus Upper Midscale 2011 Hyatt House Upscale EVEN Hotels (IHG) Upscale Hualuxe Hotels & Resorts (IHG) Upscale 2013 Hyatt Ziva Luxury Hyatt Zilara Luxury Moxy by Marriott Upper Midscale AC Hotels by Marriott Upper Midscale 2014 Radisson Collection Upper Upscale Curio Collection by Hilton Upper Upscale Canopy by Hilton Upper Upscale Radisson RED Upper Upscale Vi̅ b by Best Western Upscale BW Premier Collection Upscale Hotel RL Upscale Red Roof Plus Economy 2015 Hyatt C entric Upper Upscale Glo by Best Western Upper Midscale 2016 Unbound Collection by Hyatt Luxury Tru by Hilton Midscale SureStay Collection by Best Western Midscale SureStay Plus by Best Western Midscale SureStay by Best Western Economy 2017 Tapestry Collection by Hilton Upscale Trademark Hotel Collection by Wyndham Upper Midscale BW Signature Collection Upper Midscale avid by IHG Midscale The Red Collection by Red Roof Midscale 2018 Sadie Hotels (Best Western) Upscale Moto by Hilton Upper Midscale voco by IHG Upper Midscale Aiden by Best Western Upper Midscale Clarion Pointe (Choice) Midscale HomeTowne Studios by Red Roof Inn Economy 2019 Signia by Hilton Upper Upscale Atwell Suites by IHG Upper Midscale Source: Franchise Websites, STR, Hotel & Leisure Advisors After a Decade of Growth and Recovery, What’s in Store for the Hospitality Industry? Page 6 In addition to the introduction of new brands, the development of multiple-branded hotels on shared sites has been on the rise. In 2018, Lodging Econometrics identified 244 properties (dual- and triple-branded deals) on 192 shared sites, and projected in 2019, 414 hotels on 281 shared sites were expected to break ground. This concept is attractive to developers as offering multiple brands gives the opportunity to attract a wider range of customers to the same location while experiencing potentially lower operations costs. Labor Costs and Shortages The robust economy, however, was not without its downside for the industry on some levels. Record low unemployment created a labor shortage for many positions within a number of hotel markets across the U.S. Labor retention became an acute problem industry wide. With average occupancy at an all-time high for hotels across the U.S., there are more guests than ever to attend to — with fewer hospitality workers available to help them. In addition to labor shortages, the continued increase in the minimum wage over the past several years has profoundly impacted labor costs industry wide. In 2017, 21 states passed minimum wage laws, followed by another 18 states in 2018. To combat these rising minimum wages, owners increased the rate of adoption of technology to help increase operational efficiency and reduce the numbers of employees needed to operate their property. In addition to mobile check-in and digital keys, hotel companies have started experimenting with robots to deliver items to rooms and act as a concierge. What the Past Means for the Future What does this mean as we head into the next decade? As noted, while occupancy growth has slowed and possibly stopped, the growth in supply continues on. This suggests occupancy will likely decline in 2020.