Does the World Need Chinese Hegemony?
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Brigadier V Mahalingam | 1 © Vivekananda International Foundation 2020 Published in 2020 by Vivekananda International Foundation 3, San Martin Marg | Chanakyapuri | New Delhi - 110021 Tel: 011-24121764 | Fax: 011-66173415 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.vifindia.org ISBN: 978-93-90061-08-2 Follow us on Twitter | @vifindia Facebook | /vifindia All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher Brigadier V Mahalingam (Retd), is a former commander of a Mountain Brigade and former Force Commander of the National Security Guard the country’s elite Counter-terrorism Force. He is a highly regarded defence and strategic analyst and an author. Does the World Need Chinese Hegemony? Introduction In 2004, Premier Wen Jiabao said that China’s rise “will not come at the cost of any other country, will not stand in the way of any other country, nor pose a threat to any other country1”. The broad Pacific Ocean is vast enough to embrace both China and the United States”,2 said Chinese President Xi Jinping while meeting US Secretary of State John Kerry in Beijing in May 2015. Speaking alongside US President Barack Obama in the White House Rose Garden in September 2015, the Chinese President Xi Jinping said,“Relevant construction activity that China is undertaking in the Nansha Islands does not target or impact any country and there is no intention to militarise,” using the Chinese name for the disputed Spratly archipelago3. But the exact opposite has happened. All these assertions and assurances today appear to have been either forgotten or have become redundant in the Chinese scheme of 1 The Promise and Pitfalls of China’s ‘Peaceful Rise’, Council on Foreign Relations, available at https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/promise-and-pitfalls-chinas-peaceful-rise, accessed on August 9, 2020. 2 ‘China Voice: China, U.S. can both be Pacific powers’, Xinhua, May 19, 2015, available at http://en.people.cn/n/2015/0519/c90883-8894020.html accessed on August 9, 2020. 3 David Brunnstrom, Michael Martina, ‘Xi denies China turning artificial islands into military bases’ Reuters, September 25, 2015, available at https://www.reuters.com/ article/us-usa-china-pacific/xi-denies-china-turning-artificial-islands-into-military-bases- idUSKCN0RP1ZH20150925, accessed on August 9, 2020. Brigadier V Mahalingam | 5 things. China’s ‘peaceful rise’ now seems out of the question. It raises a serious doubt; can China be trusted? China has adopted aggression and cunning ways to integrate itself with the economies of the countries and has made use of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Digital Silk Road (DSR) to gain access, promote its own economy and exploit its economic linkages. Inducements to extract political concessions, influencing countries aggressively, manipulating them to use their soilby proxy elements, and distracting adversaries to tie them down makes it amply clear that China had in the first place never intended to be non-aggressive or peaceful in pushing through its global power ambitions. China’s recent aggressive action in Hong Kong to snatch away its autonomy by violating an international agreement that it had signed with Britain, amassing of troops to pressurise India in its Northern borders in Eastern Ladakh, use of force to occupy territory on the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with a view to make fresh territorial claims, belligerent encroachments in the South China Sea (SCS), renaming of islands and other features in the sea, constant military threat to Taiwan and Japan’s Senkaku islands, use of economic threats to tame Australia and South Korea, its efforts to acquire US military technology, classified information and trade secrets by dubious means at a time when the rest of the world is struggling to control the pandemic and deal with the economic slowdown, only confirms China’s larger aim to become an Asian hegemon and ultimately snatch the world’s leadership role from the US irrespective of ethics or costs. Viewed from a larger perspective, China’s actions are undermining US’ interests in the region. The question is; is China attempting to push US out of Asia? Is it trying to shrink US’ influence in South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and the South East Asian countries and force them to dilute US’ military commitments in the region? Is China attempting to threaten 6 | Does the World Need Chinese Hegemony? countries which are opposed to its ways or aligned to US and make them to fall in line? A brief look at China’s intimidating conduct, application of financial and trade inducements to trap countries, use of military coerces and contemptible exasperates unexpected of a modern nation state,in order to compel countries to adapt to ways that suits its needs will provide an idea of its larger aims. Besides, it would conclusively indicate as to how China may put to use its power once it becomes a global hegemon, or if the world is forced to adopt Chinese world order. Let us take a look. The South China Sea Control of the SCS is a most controversial and explosive diplomatic issue in East Asia with China asserting sovereignty over maritime areas that span 3.5million square km which are also claimed by Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines. Goods worth $4.5 trillion pass through the SCS, an important route for commercial shipping in the world. It is believed it has significant oil and gas reserves besides huge fisheries. In the SCS, China has gradually encroached, reclaimed land to an extent of at least 3200 acres and has undertook large scale construction activities on its dual-use outposts of the Spratly and Paracel Islands. It has created and transformed seven reefs into military strongholds with a view to dominate the Sea. It is now militarily in a position to control movement in the SCS. It has refused to vacate the area by claiming these to be its own. As of now there are no options other than either to accept Chinese claim over the artificial islands or to evict them from these areas by force. In 2013, Philippines went to the five judge Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague, constituted under Annex VII to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS),in order to Brigadier V Mahalingam | 7 counter China’s claims. Though China has ratified the Convention in June 1996, it refused to accept or participate in the arbitration, which it said was initiated unilaterally by the Philippines. Broadly, the tribunal ruled4 that there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights over resources within the sea areas falling under the so called ‘nine-dash line’. The tribunal observed that China had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights by interfering with fishing and oil exploration, constructing artificial islands and failing to prevent Chinese fishermen from fishing there. It also stated that Chinese law enforcement vessels have “unlawfully created a serious risk of collision when they physically obstructed Philippino vessels”. The court imposed a stricture on China over its land reclamation activity and confirmed that China violated the Philippines’ rights by seizing Scarborough Shoal, in 2012. Beijing has rejected the Court’s authority to rule on the case and has also attempted to discredit its work as ‘biased’ by pointing to the fact that a judge from China’s regional rival Japan was involved in the case. That much for China’s respect for rule of law! China continues to harass the countries of the region without respite. Taiwan The Taiwan issue is a consequence of the Chinese Civil War and the resultant split of China into two self-governing entities called the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC) respectively. The PRC maintains that there is only one China in the world and that Taiwan is an inalienable part of it. Any departure from ‘One China Policy’ is unacceptable to Beijing. 4 Press Release, The South China Sea Arbitration, Permanent Court of Arbitration, July 12, 2016, available at https://web.archive.org/web/20160712201412/ https://pca-cpa.org/wp- content/uploads/sites/175/2016/07/PH-CN-20160712-Press-Release-No-11-English.pdf, accessed on August 25, 2020. 8 | Does the World Need Chinese Hegemony? Relations between China and Taiwan hardened after Chen Shui-bian who had been openly advocating independence was elected and subsequently reelected as the President of Taiwan in 2000 and 2004 respectively. China then enacted the anti-secession law in 2005 asserting China’s right to use “non-peaceful” means against Taiwan if it attempted to secede from China5. In January 2016, Tsai Ing-wen, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate which supports independence from China won the elections. Throughout 2018, China stepped up pressure on international business houses compelling them to list Taiwan as a part of China on their websites, threatening to prevent them from doing business in China if they failed to comply6. Chiang Kai-shek’s Republic of China (ROC) held China’s seat at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and was recognised by many Western nations as the bona fide Chinese government. However, in 1971, the UN took a decision to recognise Beijing and the ROC government was forced out. Currently, 15 countries recognise Taiwan as the ROC and as a result they do not have diplomatic relations with China. The rest of the world has not acknowledged Taiwan for fear of reprisal by the PRC. China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province and has declared that it will retake its province, if necessary, by force.